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Costco Just Introduced the Kirkland Product Fans Have 'Been Waiting For,' and It's Selling Out Fast
Costco’s Kirkland Signature Ultra-Filtered Reduced Fat Milk, which is remarkably similar to Fairlife 2% Lactose-Free Milk, boasts 13 grams of protein per serving and half of the sugar compared to regular milk, at a fraction of the cost.
Masters 2026: Rory McIlroy can't stop riding Augusta rollercoaster
Rory McIlroy says he will have to play better on Sunday if he is to defend his Masters title after letting slip a six-shot lead at Augusta National.
2026 Masters final round tee times, how to watch: Can Rory McIlroy win a second straight green jacket at Augusta National?
Masters 2026: Rory McIlroy faces history or heartbreak on Sunday at Augusta
Masters 2026: Masters 2026: Rory McIlroy faces history or heartbreak on Sunday at Augusta
McIlroy will either become just the fourth player ever to win back-to-back Masters, or will have given up the largest 36-hole lead in tournament history.
Forget Masters leaderboard, Scottie Scheffler still biggest threat to Rory
Scottie Scheffler, the world's No. 1 golfer, made a significant comeback in the Masters third round, challenging Rory McIlroy.
Pistons, Pacers close regular season in opposite positions
With the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference already locked up, the Detroit Pistons visiting the Indiana Pacers on Sunday in Indianapolis with an opportunity to complete a 60-win regular season for the first time in 20 years.
Federal judges say White House ballroom construction can continue, for now
President Donald Trump has claimed that a building pause poses a risk to national security.
Growing List of Dead and Missing NASA Scientists Triggers New Alarm
The list of dead and missing scientists throughout the U.S. was already spurring growing alarm and, in some cases, the attention of law enforcement. Another name has been added to the list by some new...
Appeals court says Trump White House ballroom construction can proceed for now
A federal appeals court said Saturday that President Donald Trump can move ahead for another week with construction of a massive new White House ballroom while judges consider the project.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Pokémon Champions is off to a rough start
The bugs are already getting fixed, but it’s still got a long road ahead.
Masters 2026: Who gives out the green jacket if Rory McIlroy wins?
Masters 2026 3rd round leaderboard, live updates: Rory McIlroy carries historic lead into the weekend at Augusta National
Engadget review recap: ASUS ZenBook A16, AirPods Max 2, Sonos Play and LG Sound Suite
A roundup of the latest reviews from Engadget.
The California governor’s race was already a mess for Dems. Now what?
Democrats have struggled for months over how to handle the governor’s race. Will the Eric Swalwell scandal be a unifying moment?
Trump, sounding like Biden, says he deserves more credit
America’s last two presidents have spent years as political foils. Both feel the American public does not give them enough credit.
New Crimson Desert Patch Just Dropped With Many of the Improvements Pearl Abyss Said Were Due in the Coming Months, and Some It Hadn't Mentioned at All
Just a day after Pearl Abyss’ announcement of the various improvements it said were coming soon to Crimson Desert, we have a new patch that adds many of them already — and even a few changes fans hadn't expected.
Trump likes to back winners in foreign elections. The upcoming vote in Hungary will test his clout
Donald Trump has made a public flex of his political influence abroad on a scale that few, if any, U.S. presidents have, trying to marshal power he’s used domestically to sway races around the world
NYT Connections Sports Edition hints and answers for April 11: Tips to solve Connections #565
Everything you need to solve Connections Sports Edition #565.
Democrats denounce Trump’s plan to use foreign steel in White House ballroom
A New York Times report that the president was accepting a donation of foreign steel for the ballroom was seized on by Democrats.
Masters 2026 3rd round tee times, how to watch: Can Rory McIlroy hold his historic lead at Augusta National on Moving Day?
Rory McIlroy holds a six-shot lead entering the weekend at Augusta National.
Possible Democratic 2028 Candidates Are Already Fighting for Black Voters’ Support
Possible presidential candidates are already courting a crucial Democratic constituency.
Science students find mentorship and pathways to career success
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Natasha Lyonne says she took sleeping pill before being escorted off flight, claims she was 'detained' by ICE
Natasha Lyonne says she took a sleeping pill before being escorted off her recent flight to NYC and claimed that she was 'detained' by ICE afterward: 'Sign of the times, I guess.'
Retro NYC video store marks booming first year in business – thanks to growing Gen-Z demand for VHS, DVDs
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Crowd chants ‘Run again!’ to Kamala Harris, who said she’s ‘thinking about it’
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Democrats Denounce Trump’s Plan to Use Foreign Steel in White House Ballroom
A New York Times report that the president was accepting a donation of foreign steel for the ballroom was seized on by Democrats.
House Ethics Committee to consider sanctions for Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick on April 21
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The moon is green and brown? Why scientists are already excited about Artemis II's historic lunar photos
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From politics to punches: Biden Jr challenges Trump sons to cage fight
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SVS quality initiative gathers data to improve vascular care
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Scheffler, Rose to chase McIlroy with early Masters starts
Top-ranked Scottie Scheffler and England's Justin Rose were set for early starts chasing co-leaders Rory McIlroy and Sam Burns as Friday's second round of the Masters began at Augusta National.Burns, the 54-hole leader at last year's US Open, managed his lowest round in 13 at Augusta National despite the firm greens.
Government Comes After Costco, Walmart, and Sam’s Club’s Business Model
Congress should think long and hard before moving S. 4147 forward.
Covista taps Walden University leader to integrate marketing, digital innovation
Health care education company Covista is expanding the role of Walden University President Michael Betz to include chief growth and innovation officer duties.
Make Your MacBook Battery Last Longer With This Setting
If you own a MacBook and work from home, it's easy to have your laptop plugged in for hours on end without thinking about the long-term battery life implications. Fortunately, Apple recently added a setting that lets you cap how high your Mac's battery charges, and if you own an iPhone that was released in the last few years, you may already be familiar with it.
Google Rolls Out DBSC in Chrome 146 to Block Session Theft on Windows
Google releases DBSC in Chrome 146 for Windows, binding cookies to devices to reduce session theft and prevent unauthorized access.
2026 K League 2 Round 7 Preview
Round 7 in K League 2 brings together two sides tipped for an immediate return to the top flight, as Suwon FC and Daegu FC renew their rivalry in unfamiliar surroundings. With both teams still finding...
Texas' smokable hemp ban hits businesses as lawsuit challenges new rules
It has been just over a week since Texas' ban on smokable hemp took effect, and some business owners say the new rules are already taking a financial toll - while a legal challenge aims to overturn it.
‘Showing the upside to Down syndrome’: Columbia woman’s business giving back and inspiring others
Jewelry can hold meaning far beyond what meets the eye. For Columbia creator Lucy Graham, each bracelet and necklace is made with a purpose: showing “the upside to Down Syndrome.”
St. Denis neighbors push back against business applying for liquor license
Less liquor stores and more community resources: that’s what residents of the St. Denis neighborhood are hoping for as they push back against a business applying for a liquor license.
Hackers drain local jewelry business of its Shopify account
A local online jewelry business says hackers drained its Shopify account to 18 cents, leaving sales, restocks and shipping at a standstill.
Op-ed: You don’t have to major in business because your dad told you to
I’m a second-year student at Northeastern, and I’ve already changed my major four times — twice last semester. I know that sounds stressful, kind of scary and like I have no idea what I want to do with my life. But currently, my major is combined political science and journalism, and despite the changes I...
Masters 2026: Rory McIlroy winning a green jacket has only made him more dangerous at Augusta National
McIlroy started slow on the first nine, but confidence allowed him to 'keep swinging' his way to the top of the Round 1 leaderboard
Instagram comments can now be edited (within 15 minutes)
You can edit any Instagram comment you've left via a new "Edit" button.
Rising costs for food, labor, credit card swipe fees threaten Texas restaurants
Half of all Texas restaurant operators failed to earn a profit last year, according to data tracked by the National Restaurant Association.
NATO chief signals allies may act on Hormuz, warns of ‘unhealthy codependence’ on US
Rutte signals a possible coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz after meeting Trump, but the White House says NATO was tested and already failed.
2026 Peabody Awards Entertainment Nominations
Additional noteworthy TV shows up for the prestigious honor, designed to recognize impactful small-screen storytelling, include 'Adolescence,' 'Andor,' 'Death by Lightning,' 'Dying for Sex,' 'Forever,' 'Mussolini: Son of the Century,' 'Pluribus' and 'The Rehearsal.'
David B. Cornstein, Envoy Who Built U.S. Ties to Orban, Dies at 87
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Has ‘Grey’s Anatomy’ Already Done a Bridge Collapse Disaster Before?
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Downtown Augusta businesses give update on sales during golf week
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Every way Trump has changed Washington, DC, in his second term
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Georgia’s 14th District runoff reveals significant shift to Democrats
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Masters leaderboard, tee times, how to watch: Keep up with Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler at Augusta National
Another NHL Debut? Florida Panthers Call Up Rookie Defenseman
The Florida Panthers have had quite a few of their youngsters get their first taste of the NHL and, tonight […] This article: Another NHL Debut? Florida Panthers Call Up Rookie Defenseman originally appeared on Florida Hockey Now.
Road to Vostok's hot start on Steam has "secured the entire production budget" the Finnish survival shooter needs for "years to come", dev says
Road to Vostok, a Finnish survival shooter, has already secured the budget it needs for years to come following an early access release, its developer says.
Business group opposes plan to replace MO income tax with sales tax
A top Missouri business group opposes a Republican plan to replace income tax with sales taxes, arguing the state is already competitive.
Coach Brown to be Inducted into the Arkansas Sports Hall of Fame
Conway, Ark. — The Arkansas Sports Hall of Fame will induct its 68th class on Friday, April 10, at the Oaklawn Event Center Ballroom in Hot Springs. The class features 10 standout athletes and coaches, including Nathan Brown, head football coach at the University of Central Arkansas.
Detroit Lions NFL Draft Injury Report: LSU S AJ Haulcy
AJ Haulcy NFL Draft medical report. Full injury analysis heading into the 2026 NFL draft. How will it affect Detroit Lions draft strategy?
100K new veterans sign up for VA health care amid 'landmark improvements'
Veterans Affairs has recorded 100,000 new health care enrollees already this year, hitting the milestone faster than in six of the last seven years, the department said this week.
100K new veterans sign up for VA health care amid 'landmark improvements'
Veterans Affairs has recorded 100,000 new health care enrollees already this year, hitting the milestone faster than in six of the last seven years, the department said this week.
Bartholomew’s heroics save Cyclones in rivalry game
IOWA CITY — While the rain appeared heavy at times on the Big Ten Network stream it was a case of “when it rains, it pours” as Iowa State (23-15, 4-8 Big 12) and Iowa (21-17, 5-10 Big Ten) combined for five home runs, punctuated by Reagan Bartholomew’s game-winning two-run homer to deep center field […]
Trump to discuss leaving NATO in meeting with alliance’s leader, White House says
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Local teachers seek win for science, school funds
Brooklyn McElroy, a science teacher at Lebanon High School, Amber Arceo-Bigoni, an agriculture teacher at Sweet Home High…
Lebanon teacher seeks win for science, Heath Stadium
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County supervisors fielding complaints about controversial Winneshiek County Fair entertainment
The Winneshiek County Board of Supervisors is receiving complaints from the public regarding a musical group scheduled to perform at this year’s Winneshiek County Fair. The fair announced late last month the southern country-rock band Confederate Railroad would be part of this year’s musical lineup, along with Kayley Green and headliner Travis Denning. Online responses
Databricks co-founder wins prestigious ACM award, says 'AGI is here already'
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8GB of RAM Hasn’t Hurt MacBook Neo Sales at All
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AI Boom Could Cause Health Care Costs to Soar
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Exclusive: Motorola Razr 70 Ultra Official Renders
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Masters 2026 odds, picks, predictions, favorites: Expert fading Rory McIlroy at Augusta National
SportsLine golf expert David Bearman just locked in his predictions for the 2026 Masters at Augusta National Golf Club with Tiger Woods (personal) not in the field
Country Thunder is no friend of sea turtles, or following protocol
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Will ceasefire in Iran lead to end of war?
‘Fundamental disagreements persist’ between US and Iran and, if unresolved, could result in the same ‘impasse’ as before conflict began
Jay Bilas talks NBA Draft, college basketball, NIL & the evolution of the game
NASA chose an old DSLR as its primary Artemis II camera
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2026 Masters odds, picks: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy predictions by model that nailed 4 straight winners
Picks for 2026 Masters golfers and the Masters favorite to win ahead of the year's first major at Augusta National
Republican wins runoff to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene in Congress
Clay Fuller, a district attorney backed by President Donald Trump, defeated Shawn Harris in the deeply red district vacated by Marjorie Taylor Greene.
Masters releases 2026 Champions Dinner portrait at Augusta National
The Masters posted the annual photo from the dinner, with Rory McIlroy front and center.
Viewpoint: FP10 should remain open, excellent and secure
Europe is right to worry about research security. Foreign interference is real. So is the misuse of sensitive knowledge. Universities working in sensitive areas such as AI, quantum, semiconductors and advanced materials cannot afford to ignore the geopolitical environment around them.But Europe is in danger of drawing the wrong conclusion, one that would increase, not reduce, its strategic vulnerabilities.If the EU applies an “EU preference” logic to the next Framework Programme for research and innovation (FP10), it will weaken one of its greatest strategic assets: a research system built on openness, excellence and international collaboration. In the name of security, Europe could end up advancing science more slowly, innovating less effectively and making itself less attractive to global talent and partners in advanced science and technology.That would be a serious mistake.The EU preference included in Article 10 of the proposed European Competitiveness Fund may make sense in some industrial or deployment contexts, but is far harder to justify when applied to collaborative research in advanced science and technology, where excellence and global connectivity are crucial. Research is not procurement. It does not thrive when isolated. It advances through access to the best ideas, the best people, the best facilities and the best data, wherever they are found. This is why FP10 should not simply absorb industrial policy logic by default. Doing so would risk importing instruments that are ill-suited to research and that ultimately increase vulnerability rather than resilience.For universities of science and technology, the issue is especially acute. These institutions sit at the frontier of knowledge and technology creation in the very fields Europe sees as critical for its future competitiveness and resilience. They know better than most that security risks are real. But they also know that openness and security are not opposites. In practice, they have to be made to work together. Research security is not about closing doors. It is about building resilience through collective responsibility, trust, proportionate safeguards and better governance. That is a fundamentally different approach from default restriction.The risks of non-collaborationThe real danger in the current debate is that Europe talks too much about the risks of collaboration and not enough about the risks of non-collaboration. Those risks are strategic too. Cut researchers off from international networks and Europe loses access to knowledge, data, infrastructures and talent. Slow down global collaboration in critical technologies and Europe slows down its own progress on cutting-edge science. Make participation rules unpredictable and Europe weakens its attractiveness to researchers and investors alike.In other words, over-restricting collaboration will create strategic vulnerabilities, particularly in advanced science and technologies.This point is often underestimated in policy discussions that frame openness mainly as a value to be defended. Europe’s scientific strength, technological development and long-term competitiveness depend on remaining connected to the best research ecosystems in the world. For a continent that wants to accelerate deep tech, strengthen industrial capacity and reduce strategic dependencies, weakening the excellence base would be self-defeating. That does not mean ignoring risk. Quite the opposite. Universities are already strengthening due diligence, internal governance, awareness-raising, screening procedures and compliance support. Across Europe, institutions are working to manage risks linked to foreign interference, sanctions, export controls and the misuse of research. The right response is not complacency. It is better risk management. But that means targeted, evidence-based and proportionate measures, not blunt top-down restrictions with wide spillover effects. In the daily reality of universities, openness and restriction often coexist. The real challenge is how to apply safeguards without sliding into securitisation that damages academic freedom, open science and international cooperation. Restrict partners, not nationsMore restrictive treatment of collaborators from European Economic Area members Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway, or from Switzerland and the UK, is strategically very difficult to justify. These are deeply embedded partners in Europe’s research and innovation ecosystem. Beyond that, Europe should still resist default exclusion and instead rely on case-by-case assessment. The relevant question is not nationality in the abstract. It is the actual risk profile of a collaboration: the institution, the affiliations, the field, the knowledge involved, the intended use and the safeguards available. Screening should focus on institutions and affiliations rather than nationality alone. Related articlesParliament ‘misreads’ link between Horizon Europe and ECF, Commission official saysFrustration grows at governance gap in next Horizon EuropeIf EU preference logic is imported into research without careful calibration, the likely result is a chilling effect. Researchers may step back from legitimate and beneficial collaboration, even where risks are manageable. International partners may see Europe as less predictable. And Europe may end up undermining the very excellence base it needs to compete, scale up and lead in strategic technologies, thereby increasing its dependence on others.FP10 should do the opposite. It should remain open by default, with restrictions used only exceptionally, and then on the basis of clear evidence. It should integrate research security into open science and research integrity frameworks, not set them against each other. And it should recognise that academic freedom, scientific excellence and responsible international collaboration are not obstacles to Europe’s security, they are part of it. Europe needs stronger tools to protect itself. But it also needs the discipline to avoid measures that would weaken it and increase its strategic vulnerabilities in the process. In FP10, that means staying open, excellent and secure.Louise Drogoul is senior advisor for innovation and sustainability at the Cesaer university association.
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MAGA Is Winning Its War Against U.S. Science
Source: NBER With all the other terrible news right now, you may not have noticed that Donald Trump is in the process of killing American science. OK, that’s an exaggeration — but not that much of an exaggeration. The Trump administration’s latest budget proposal calls for a gigantic increase in military spending combined with severe cuts to social programs. But as the chart above shows, it also calls for debilitating reductions in research funding. Furthermore, Trump appointees have already been strangling science by sharply reducing the rate at which research grants are approved. Here, for example, is the number of new grants approved by the National Science Foundation: Source: Nature Large numbers of existing grants have also been frozen or terminated, especially in the study of infectious diseases. Add to this a sharp drop in visas issued to foreign students, who often play a direct role in research and who help support academic departments that do research: Put all of this together, and much U.S. scientific research is set to come to a screeching halt — not a few years from now, but over the course of the next year or two. This new assault on U.S. science is taking place at a time when the role of American science in the world has already been greatly eroded. The chart below, based on research recently reported by the National Bureau of Economic Research, measures national strength in science by the share of publications in highly ranked journals. In the 1990s the United States had more such publications than the rest of the world combined. Since then we’ve dropped into third place — well behind China and slightly below the European Union. And this was before the Trump administration’s attack on science had time to take its full effect. Source Some erosion in U.S. scientific preeminence was inevitable given China’s growing sophistication and wealth. But we’ve also fallen behind Europe, even though everyone says that Europe is lagging economically and technologically. Claims about Europe’s underperformance are, in fact, dubious if one looks hard at the data. But it’s still striking to see America lagging. What’s going on? There are presumably multiple factors behind America’s scientific lag. But even before Trump II the growing hostility of the U.S. right to science surely had some negative effect. And since the rise of MAGA G.O.P. attitudes toward science in general have become overwhelmingly hostile. This is true even for the Republican rank and file: And while I haven’t been able to find good survey data, it’s obvious that the anti-science turn has been even more pronounced — and began earlier — among the Republican political elite. Chris Mooney published The Republican War on Science in 2005, and even then was describing a longstanding trend. Why have Republicans turned so anti-science? Part of the answer is that they believe that scientists don’t support them. And they’re right! A study of who scientists give money to shows that only a small percentage gave money to Republicans even 20 years ago, and that almost none of them donate to Republicans now: Social scientists have always been strongly pro-Democratic, while there used to be a significant number of physical, “hard” scientists supporting the GOP. But these days physicists are almost as uniformly Democratic, or at least non-Republican, as sociologists. Why are there almost no Republican scientists? It’s not a mystery. GOP political orthodoxy includes positions that are at odds with the scientific consensus on multiple issues, ranging from the validity of the theory of evolution, to the reality of climate change, to the efficacy and safety of vaccines. In each case the scientific consensus is solidly grounded in evidence. But even before the rise of MAGA the U.S. right was increasingly hostile to evidence-based policymaking — especially, of course, where the evidence is unfavorable to fossil fuel interests or quack medicine, both financial mainstays of right-wing politics. So scientists don’t support Republicans, and the feeling is mutual. Today’s Republican Party doesn’t like science or scientists. It doesn’t like having its preconceived views challenged by appeals to evidence. It knows that very few scientists are on its side electorally. In general, it sees scientific research as a threat to its grasp on political power. Add in MAGA’s combination of rabid anti-intellectualism and allergy to any hint of criticism, and one has the makings of a drastic anti-science turn in policy. “Ignorance is strength” might was well be an official MAGA motto. And as I said, we aren’t talking about something that will happen over the course of multiple years: The U.S. scientific enterprise is threatened with severe damage, even collapse, over just the next year. There are many reasons to find this prospect horrifying: Think of all the beneficial advances, affecting almost every part of life, that won’t happen because U.S. science — still crucial to the world — has been eviscerated. But think, also, of America’s international standing. Can a nation that has forfeited its role as a leader, or even a contender, in global science, still be a Great Power? No. MUSICAL CODA
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