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IBM forecasts preliminary Q2 revenue below estimates as spending shifts to AI
IBM's preliminary second-quarter revenue forecast came below Wall Street estimate on Tuesday, as customers prioritized spending on AI infrastructure, including servers, storage and memory purchases, sending its shares slumping 17% in premarket trading.
The science of sponge anxiety
Kitchen hygiene is one of those topics where common sense, science, and social media often collide. A new study suggests that the humble kitchen sponge is remarkably good at harboring bacteria and spreading them to food-contact surfaces.
They're Building Half A Bridge to Save Science...
Today’s post is about science: what you can do now to protect it from unprecedented threats, and how your action is the first half of a long-term program that Congress must take up next. Let me start with describing the embryonic state of science advocacy. There are many well-meaning organizations: the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Research!America, and subject-specific organizations such as the Society for Neuroscience and the American Physical Society. Their general approach is to emphasize the common good: the remarkable value that science and innovation have provided to all Americans. However, these organizations are offering an incomplete solution. Before I start, a preliminary: If you already know about the threat, go ahead and weigh in with OMB at this link. Ideas about what to say come from Research!America and the American Physical Society. You have until Monday, July 13 at 11:59pm Eastern. Then come back here and read the rest of this post. Finally, get in touch with whoever is likely to be your next member of Congress in 2027. The threat: An end to merit-based science… The onslaught of attacks on science is accelerating. It’s not just cuts to grants, which was the last battle. That battle is not done yet, but there is a new and worse threat. Now comes a proposed public rule from the Office of Management and Budget. The rule would take decision-making power over grants away from experts and put it into the hands of political appointees. Former NIH official Elizabeth Ginexi wrote an excellent summary of what OMB is trying to do, which is codify the executive branch’s ability to award or terminate grants, for arbitrary cause or no stated cause. Since World War II, a necessary step in scientific grant-making has been consideration of scientific merit. This approach has made America into a dominant scientific superpower, the envy of the world. Of course, political considerations do come into the mix. The proposed rule tilts the balance dramatically away from merit. …but why? Many people have difficulty comprehending why Russell Vought and OMB would want to damage science in this way. If you’re a working scientist, you are likely to be particularly uncomprehending. Who would hurt an activity so self-evidently good? The answer is: this is part of the program to replace the rule of law with a personalist regime. OMB Director Russell Vought, a Christian nationalist, would like to implement what legal scholars call a “unitary executive,” and what I would call a dictatorship. Or if you like, a personalist authoritarian regime. I am a working scientist. This rule will debilitate my research. It may chill the speech of scientists for speaking freely in the public sphere. It is a form of personalizing power and decision-making within the executive branch. In short, it sacrifices science in the service of tyranny. To Russell Vought, a decrease in the quality of science might be an acceptable cost. He might even consider it an added benefit to weaken a pillar of soft U.S. power based on knowledge and skepticism. The professional societies are building half a bridge The nonprofits are asking you to make public comment. Public comment is like building the first half of a bridge. Before implementation, OMB is compelled by law to have a period of public comment. Rules have to be consistent with the law and the Constitution. They express the federal government’s stance toward how those laws will be implemented. When a presidential administration works in good faith, these public comments are used to inform their eventual action, and sometimes mitigate it. The comment period reflects our First Amendment right to petition our government. The executive branch is then supposed to take those comments into account - completing the bridge between us, the people, and our government. Project 2025 seeks to take away the second half of the bridge. We have to replace it. The first half of the bridge Organizations like AAAS, Research!America, and SfN are partly right. You should certainly comment. Their core model is earnest: if enough of us make noise, then we will achieve change. This idealistic point of view is offered in good faith. That point of view is also currently bullshit. The fundamental reason is that the federal rulemaking process has two parts: There has to be a period of public comment. OMB makes the final rule…but is free to disregard public comment. Oops. That’s a loophole. However, not all is lost. Congress can complete the bridge Congress has enormous power. That power suggests a roadmap for how to proceed. This lawless administration is still going to issue that rule. Nonetheless, your comments still play an essential role. Here are two steps you can take. Step 1: Send your comment to your Representative and Senator. Whether they are Democrats or Republicans, many of them support science. Whatever you wrote as public comment in the Federal Register, also send it to your member of Congress. You can include information about jobs in your district or state by looking at Joshua Weitz’s ScienceMatters interactive map. Call the U.S. Capitol switchboard at (202) 224-3121 and give your town, zip code, or state, then deliver your message. Step 2: Politicize the hell out of science. You heard me, politicize it as an issue. We hear a lot from the old scientific establishment about science being nonpartisan. This is obsolete, sentimental thinking. Under normal conditions, it was true. But we can no longer make that assumption. We can keep on pretending, but we’re putting science at risk. There is a way forward. Rules are subordinate to the law…and Congress makes laws. Therefore Congress can step in. In this fall’s election, it is likely that Democrats will retake the House of Representatives. That puts at least one chamber of Congress in the hands of Democrats. They are far more inclined than the current Congress to investigate and legislate. This opens a path to undoing the damage. It also creates a permission structure for pro-science Republicans to find a way back from the brink. We have to encourage them. In the House, every district is up every two years. In your district, contact both of the major party candidates. If your state has a Senate race, contact those candidates too. Specifically mention the proposed OMB rule. Ask for two things: For this year’s appropriations process in August and September, ask that amendments be added to stop the implementation of the new rule. Those amendments should support peer-reviewed science and stop political interference. Looking ahead to next year, ask the Congressman/Congresswoman/Senator to work to hold hearings in 2027 on the importance and benefits of peer-reviewed science for health and prosperity. What hearings and amendments will accomplish Congress can use its investigatory power to summon heads of agencies and the director of the OMB. That will allow fact-finding regarding the consequences of this rule. Congress can override the rule through the appropriations process. They can write into statute a requirement to follow peer review and best scientific practices. In this way, Congress can stop the attacks on science. Postscript: Moving forward Now I have a request for you, to help me. As many of you know, I ran for Congress in order to save democracy and science. Although I did not win, that battle continues by other means. I met and heard from thousands of supporters both here in New Jersey and nationally. I learned that pro-science, pro-democracy activists have the potential to become a much greater force. In the weeks and months ahead, I will be building ways to harness that energy. I will be announcing those plans soon. In the meantime, an important step is to wind down the Congressional campaign, which has a few remaining bills to pay. Please help me retire that last debt.
Screen time: grab the remote and embrace this remarkable sporting smorgasbord
With content-stacking and spoiler-avoiding, a fan with the right subscriptions can expect to enjoy 13 uninterrupted hours on the sofa on Saturday
Big 12 commissioner declines to address Sorsby gambling saga
The first thing Brett Yormark was asked about after his opening remarks at Big 12 football media days was the Brendan Sorsby gambling saga.
Rahm Emanuel to denounce Netanyahu during Tel Aviv speech as American politics shift against Israel
According to remarks obtained by The Associated Press, Emanuel on Wednesday will criticize Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for leading Israel to a "dead end" and say unconditional U.S. support has been a mistake.
Opening the future of science
The U.S. NSF LCCF Overview and Characteristic Science Applications virtual panel featured remarks from NSF and TACC leaders, followed by a moderated panel of researchers using TACC's Frontera and Vista supercomputers to tackle some of science's most complex challenges.
Rahm Emanuel will denounce Netanyahu in Tel Aviv speech
“It cannot stand or survive as it has been,” Emanuel will say at Tel Aviv University on Wednesday, according to remarks obtained by The Associated Press.
James responds to Islamophobia accusation, vowing to target Muslim org
GOP gubernatorial candidate U.S. Rep. John James, R-Shelby Township, drew condemnation for remarks he made about a Muslim procession in Dearborn.
Cape Verde’s unexpected World Cup run is a reminder of sport’s capacity to surprise
A remarkable moment summed up why the World Cup still has the capacity to enthrall
The secret to healthy aging may be hidden in your blood
Some people live past 100 with remarkable health, and researchers may have uncovered one reason why. A new study found that centenarians have a unique chemical "fingerprint" in their blood that sets them apart from normal aging, including unusual patterns of bile acids and steroids linked to longer survival.
NASA's Hubble captures a star-spangled sea of 500,000 stars
Celebrating the United States' 250th anniversary, NASA released a stunning Hubble portrait of Messier 3, an ancient globular cluster with more than 500,000 stars. The remarkable cluster is helping scientists unravel the Milky Way's past thanks to its rare stars and possible origins in a long ago cosmic merger.
The secret to healthy aging may be hidden in your blood
Some people live past 100 with remarkable health, and researchers may have uncovered one reason why. A new study found that centenarians have a unique chemical "fingerprint" in their blood that sets them apart from normal aging, including unusual patterns of bile acids and steroids linked to longer survival.
Chicago Cubs news — Swanson, Conforto, Suzuki, PCA, Busch, Rea
Dansby Swanson’s reaction to his third home run of the day, a grand slam, to spark a remarkable 23-3 Cubs win Wednesday.
Trump’s Remarkable Losing Streak
The administration has lost at least a dozen election-related cases.
Gov. Wes Moore on ‘responsibility’ to show ‘patriotism is not political’
Gov. Wes Moore (D-Md.) joins Meet the Press NOW to preview his upcoming address on America’s 250th birthday as President Trump prepares to deliver his own remarks.
My dad had a stroke. We still made it to the World Cup
Getting my father to a World Cup match required careful planning, but the day reminded me he is still remarkably independent.
Scientists discover giant fan-shaped structure beneath Antarctica's ice sheet: The hidden structure rewriting Earth's ancient history
For decades, Antarctica has been treated as a kind of frozen time capsule, a place where evidence of Earth's deep past sits preserved, undisturbed, beneath layers of ice that have built up over millions of years. As per the study published in Nature Geoscience, scientists have now uncovered something remarkable within that buried record: an enormous, fan-shaped geological structure stretching across a huge swath of East Antarctica, hidden entirely from view beneath the ice.
Federal Reserve Chair Warsh emphasizes political independence, signals focus on inflation
In remarks at a central bank conference in Sintra, Portugal, Warsh said that if businesses or households thought the Fed would accept inflation above 2%, “I guess they'd be disappointed. We're going to deliver price stability.”
Sony will cease production of discs for new PlayStation games in 2028
New games sold for PlayStation consoles will only be available digitally and won’t be sold on discs effective January 2028, Sony has announced. The move applies to all PlayStation games released from that point on, including those made by Sony and those released by third parties. The PlayStation group calls the change “a natural direction for Sony Interactive Entertainment to adapt to consumer trends as the general preference for digital media significantly outpaces physical discs,” according to a PlayStation blog post reviewed by Game File in advance of its publication. As movies, TV and music have shifted from physical media to an age of downloads and streaming, Sony’s move could speed the demise of physical media in a gaming. The industry has offered consumers games via cartridges, cassettes, floppy discs, CDs, DVDs and Blu-Rays across a 50-year stretch. Sony has been reporting to investors in recent years that PlayStation games have been increasingly purchased as downloads, not as discs. The most recent figures show nearly four in five purchases of full games for PlayStation 4 and PlayStation 5 were purchased digitally in the past year. Stats like that may cause today’s news to carry an air of the inevitable. But Sony’s declaration for 2028 is still likely to produce a shock, as the biggest gaming platform on the planet that uses game discs leaves them behind. Discs going away, but the fate of game boxes is unknown Sony is committing to still selling games in physical retailers even after they drop discs in 2028. Just how those games will be sold—in boxes with codes inside, as cards marked with digital redemption codes—is unclear. Digital games will also continue to be sold in the online PlayStation Store. New games released for PlayStation consoles prior to January 2028 will be unaffected by the policy change, Sony says. That means the PS5 games of 2027, be they a new Madden, a new God of War, a new Call of Duty, a new Sly Cooper (one can dream?), would still potentially be offered on disc. PlayStation 6 implications Sony’s timeline for a transition to a no-disc era will also spin up more speculation about the timing and configuration of Sony’s next-generation console, the probable PlayStation 6. “This pretty much guarantees that PS6 won’t arrive until 2028 at the earliest,” Piers Harding-Rolls, senior games research analyst at Ampere Analysis tells Game File. Harding-Rolls also concludes from today’s news that “the base version of a PS6 will not include a physical media drive,” as Sony looks to keep costs down on the device. Sony itself is saying nothing about the PS6 today: not its timing, nor how it might or might not support internal or external disc drives in order to run disc-based PS4 and PS5 games, should the console be backwards compatible. The many signs this was coming Industry support for games being released on physical media has been waning. As has consumer interest in them. PC games effectively went all-digital years ago, thanks to the popularity of playing games through Steam and other digital storefronts. The Covid-19 pandemic and the lockdowns that kept much of the global population home helped shift shopping patterns toward downloads. Sony’s own data shows PlayStation game downloads being an uncommon consumer choice a decade ago and now becoming the norm. On consoles, physical media has been in such decline that Sony and Microsoft both launched their current gen Xbox Series and PS5 consoles in 2020 with cheaper versions that lacked disc drives. In early 2024, Phil Spencer, then head of Xbox, told me that ““[w]e ship games physically and digitally, and we’re really just following what the customers are doing.” He added that the game industry had become an outlier in still supporting disc-based entertainment, even as movies and TV have bailed on discs in favor of downloads and steaming: “Gaming consoles themselves have kind of become the last consumer electronic device that has a drive. And this is a real issue, just in terms of the number of manufacturers that are actually building drives and the cost associated with those. And when you think about cogs that we’re going to go put in a console—and as you have fewer suppliers and fewer buyers—the cost of the drive does have an impact.” Last year, the Nintendo’s Switch 2, which uses cartridges rather than discs, introduced the concept of game-key cards, which are physical media that contain no game, just a prompt for a download. Even disc-based games aren’t what they once were, now frequently containing just stubs of games rather than the whole thing. The website Does It Play has tested over 3000 games and found that, for example, that the disc version of this year’s hit 007: First Light, only contained the game’s first mission, with the rest needing to be downloaded. Beyond all that, last week brought the news that Grand Theft Auto VI, likely the biggest game launch this decade, will debut for PS5 and Xbox Series without a disc-based version. Today’s big news comes to you for free. Game File is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and ensure more of my work is possible, please consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe Discs helped define PlayStation However the trends in entertainment may be going, it is still remarkable to see PlayStation ditch discs given their importance in PlayStation history: In the late 1990s, the first PlayStation’s support for games on relatively cheap CD-ROMs instead of traditional game cartridges allowed the upstart console to outmaneuver cartridge-based systems from Nintendo and Sega, as it drove down game prices down in the process. (The cheaper disc format even prompted Final Fantasy VII maker Square to taunt Nintendo in a magazine ad, saying that if the game was “available on cartridge, it’d retail for around $1200.”) PlayStation devices often doubled as machines for watching movies and TV on the latest disc-based formats. In the late 2000s, for example, Sony’s pricy PS3 gained traction as a go-to device for playing then-novel Blu-Ray discs. In 2013, Sony effectively roasted the digital game-sharing restrictions proposed by rival Microsoft for its upcoming Xbox One console by showing how games could be shared for the then-upcoming PS4. In a 21-second clip that has over 20 million views on YouTube, one PlayStation executive simply handed a game box—presumably with disc inside—to another, who said “thanks.” Sony’s possible motivations The PlayStation announcement today cites “consumer preferences” and a shift away from discs among “the broader entertainment industry,” but does not delve into the decision-making process that brought Sony to this point. Sony is not discussing the economics of this move (I asked!), but there are a number of potential factors: Abandoning discs will spare Sony the cost of manufacturing and shipping them, which analysts and industry veterans I spoke to said could account for $1 or so of a game’s retail price. For first-party games, that’s direct savings for Sony, though the amount is limited by the winnowing percentage of people who were even buying the disc-based versions. For third-party games, Sony could pass the savings on to partners or just retain the better profit margin for themselves. As the 2024 comments from Phil Spencer alluded to, leaving discs behind could mean leaving disc-drives behind, allowing Sony to produce consoles more cheaply. Switching to digital-only for games could diminish the risks of copies of new games leaking. It would also seemingly make second-hand sales of used games impossible, pushing more people to buy their own copies of games. These economic benefits for Sony could be boons for the games industry overall, Ampere analyst Piers Harding-Rolls tells Game File. Among other things, it could free publishers and retailers from having to worry about securing an inventory of game discs when trying to sell games, he noted. “If there is a way to streamline the business of games retail, I generally think it’s a good thing for the industry as it removes unnecessary costs,” Harding-Rolls said. “This will help offset pressure on margins from other directions – development and staffing costs for example.” Should the industry shift from game boxes that contain discs to smaller, cheaper game cards, Harding-Rolls said, that reduces pressure on publishers and retailers. “The advantage of everything going digital for the industry is that sales can be tracked much more easily and there is less commercial risk for publishers wanting to continue selling via retail,” he said. The shift to no discs will also likely impact game development timelines, as developers will no longer face the same urgency to have a build ready to submit to PlayStation for the production of a disc, as industry experts noted around GTA VI’s no-disc news last week. Instead, projects may gain weeks of development time, in the event delivery deadlines for platform approval move closer to release date. Preservationists’ likely worries While millions of gamers have shifted to digital, there are still people who associate game discs—and only game discs—with actual ownership of PlayStation games. That portion of the gaming community spoke up last week about wanting to buy a version of GTA VI that they could hold in their hands, could lend to a friend and could potentially pop into a well-preserved PS5 console three decades from now and still see it run. Such gamers didn’t want to worry that they’d merely purchased a digital copy that could lose access to the game if, say, the company behind the game someday turns of the servers that transmit downloadable copies. Digital copies of games are inherently less long-lasting, because consumers aren’t actually buying a game (on a disc), just buying access to the game. The fine print in online gaming shops notes this, as does a recent law that went on the books in California in 2025. That lasw requires game publishers doing business in the state to refrain from words like “sell” when offering digital copies of games, unless they explicitly tell consumers that what’s being sold isn’t the game itself but a potentially revocable license to access it. A Sony spokesperson noted to Game File that “[w]ith all digital content, including games, movies, and music, players are purchasing a personal license for non-commercial use.” Regarding the fears of PlayStation games being lost to time in an all-digital era, the rep also noted that Sony remains “committed to delivering experiences from past generations to the new platforms our players are using.” They noted that PlayStation has used emulation and remasters to keep offering its classic games to modern gamers. It’s true that many consumers have become accustomed to not having physical copies of new music albums or movies, but the relative precariousness of digital copies of games is in fact being highlighted today by…. Sony’s other big announcement: the upcoming closure of the PS3 and PS Vita online stores Sony said today that it will be closing the online marketplaces for its PlayStation 3 console and PS Vita handheld in most countries in July 2027 (sooner elsewhere: August 2026 for the PS3 store Mexico, Honduras and Nicaragua; late 2026 for PS3 in other Latin American countries and the Middle East). “We know this news may be disappointing to PS3 and PS Vita players who hold a special place in their hearts for this generation of gaming,” Sony said in its announcement, saying the move “was not an easy decision for us to make.” Sony said that PS3 and Vita marketplaces “are no longer able” to support modern commerce systems, prompting a “need” to close the shops and focus on more modern PlayStation platform stores. The news may spark some deja vu. Sony announced back in March 2021 that it planned to take the PS3, Vita and PlayStation Portable marketplaces offline that summer. The move would have caused some 2,000 digital-only games to become unavailable for new purchasers, according to a VGC analysis at the time. Fans complained loudly. By April 2021, Sony walked back the PS3 and Vita shop closures, with then PlayStation boss Jim Ryan saying “it’s clear that we made the wrong decision here.” This time around, Sony is giving a longer notice period in most regions. The closure of those stores is still likely to cut off access to new purchases of digital-only PS3 and Vita games. The current PlayStation 5 marketplace sells PS5 and PS4 games, as well as a selection of PS1 and PS2 games. It does not sell PS3 games, because games for that platform can’t run on the system (some are offered via a PlayStation Plus streaming option). Vita games also aren’t sold via PS5. Sony says digitally purchased PS3 and Vita games will be downloadable after the stores’ shutdowns “for the foreseeable future.” Sony’s move contrasts with Microsoft’s Xbox platform, which continues to sell and support games from all four Xbox console generations. But it puts it in line with Nintendo, which disabled purchases in the marketplace for its Wii console (a contemporary of the PS3) in 2019. Nintendo discontinued purchases in the online shop for its 3DS portable (a contemporary of the Vita) in 2023. The big questions about Sony’s 2028 post-disc era Will Microsoft follow suit, ending support for new disc-based games on Xbox platforms and therefore all game consoles, too? Whether Microsoft does or not, will third-parties that can no longer release games on discs for PlayStation, simply ditch the disc options across the board? Given the GTA VI no-disc experiment launching this November, will more game publishers decide to forgo disc-based offerings even in 2027? How will no-disc PS5/6 games be packaged and sold in brick-and-mortar retail stores? What becomes of game sharing in an all-digital era? Will Sony modify its current set-up, which currently allows some sharing of digital games across a pair of consoles, to allow more casual lending? (See for example, Nintendo’s year-old system of letting players lend a digital game to another player in a “family group” for up to 14 days.) Will there be a version of a PS6 with a disc drive? Or will a drive be offered as an add-on? And how will gamers who want to retain access to PS4/PS5 disc-based games react to whichever configurations Sony chooses to offer? What will the final disc-based PlayStation game be?
Scientists cured sickle cell. Then their next challenge began.
Gene editing has delivered remarkable results against sickle cell disease. Now researchers are working to make these personalized treatments faster, cheaper, and available to far more patients.
Princess Kate completes remarkable Three Peaks Challenge mountain climb
Princess Kate is keeping it casual while completing the Three Peaks Challenge.
49ers Insider Delivers Commanders Blunt Reality on Brandon Aiyuk
The Washington Commanders are a side character in the rift between Brandon Aiyuk and the San Francisco 49ers. In recent days, Aiyuk has made it clear that he wants to play for the Commanders.Before the remarks from Aiyuk, there was only reporting of Washington’s interest in the 49ers’ wideout. Nonetheless, that’s slightly changed with the […] The post 49ers Insider Delivers Commanders Blunt Reality on Brandon Aiyuk appeared first on HEAVY.
WATCH: Biden appears confused about where to exit stage after Democratic gala remarks
Joe Biden, 83, appeared to seek directions before exiting the stage at a Maryland Democratic gala where he urged Democrats to fight back against Trump.
Brain activity under anesthesia challenges what we know about consciousness
The unconscious brain appears to be far more capable than scientists once believed. Researchers found that patients under general anesthesia could still process language at a sophisticated level, distinguishing nouns, verbs, and adjectives while listening to stories. Even more remarkably, neural activity showed signs of predicting upcoming words before they were heard. The results challenge traditional ideas about consciousness and hint at new possibilities for brain-computer interfaces.
Mamdani's suited pool plunge overshadowed by political clash with GOP gubernatorial candidate
Video shows Mayor Zohran Mamdani jumping into an East Harlem pool in a suit, but the event turned into a clash with Bruce Blakeman over remarks about a Dem congressional candidate.
We have an epidemic of political violence in this country: National Review columnist
National Review columnist Caroline Downey discusses growing political violence and criticizes Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker for his remarks about the Chicago cross-burning incident.
We have an epidemic of political violence in this country: National Review columnist
National Review columnist Caroline Downey discusses growing political violence and criticizes Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker for his remarks about the Chicago cross-burning incident.
FEMA official who claimed he teleported to Waffle House ousted from agency, sources say
A top FEMA official who had drawn scrutiny for bizarre past remarks — including claiming he teleported to a Waffle House — has been pushed out of the agency, four sources tell CNN.
Justices Clash on Whether Race Played a Role in Trump’s Bid to Deport Haitians
The split mirrored one that has long divided Americans: how seriously to take the president’s loose, provocative and sometimes ugly remarks.
FlashPoint: How a Christian political media network became a platform for Indiana’s Lt. Gov.
By Sydney Byerly The Indiana Citizen June 25, 2026 When Indiana Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith called Islam a “demonic death cult” during an appearance on the Christian political program FlashPoint in May, the remarks drew swift backlash from faith leaders across Indiana. It also highlighted the growing influence of the Christian media network that amplified
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
http://democrats-energycommerce.house.gov/media/press-releases/pallone-opening-remarks-health-subcommittee-markup-15-bills
Energy and Commerce Committee Ranking Member Frank Pallone, Jr. (D-NJ) delivered the following opening remarks today at a Health Subcommittee markup of 15 bills:
We're trimming a health-care stock into strength and raising our price target
It's been a remarkable turnaround for a name we started to buy a little too high and a little too fast when the Iran war broke out.
Former Disney CEO Bob Iger defends ABC pulling Jimmy Kimmel over Charlie Kirk remark
Bob Iger, who presided over ABC's parent company when Jimmy Kimmel was pulled from the air in 2025, denies that the decision was politically motivated, arguing that Kimmel's comments about Charlie Kirk's murder were 'in bad taste.'
Why South Africa’s leopards shrank to half their normal size
A hidden population of South African leopards has revealed a remarkable evolutionary story. Researchers analyzing entire leopard genomes discovered that the Cape Floristic Region’s leopards are not only much smaller than most African leopards, but also genetically distinct after being isolated for roughly 20,000 years. Surprisingly, despite their small population, they have retained much of their genetic diversity.
Florida AG launches investigation into CVS Health over pharmacy competition concerns
Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier issued a Civil Investigative Demand to CVS Health Corporation, the owner of the Caremark pharmacy benefit manager and hundreds of CVS retail pharmacies across the state.
Aspen Ideas: Health features four days of ‘big ideas’
Aspen Ideas: Health opened June 22 with remarks from experts, including two-minute big-idea summaries from seven health industry professionals. Since artificial intelligence is such an all-encompassing and rapidly expanding force, at least half of the big ideas revolved around AI.
Jim Cramer Says McCormick “Is Still Reeling From Their Deal to Buy Unilever’s Food Business”
McCormick & Company, Incorporated (NYSE:MKC) was among the stocks Jim Cramer discussed as he said that the Iran peace negotiations could trigger an oil glut, cool inflation, and pull interest rates down. Cramer expects to hear a Unilever deal justification from the management, as he remarked: Also, on Thursday, we hear from McCormick. This is […]
Why is AMC Entertainment stock sinking 19% in premarket today?
Why is AMC Entertainment stock sinking 19% in premarket today?
Long Island Fans Accused Of Being 'Stain' on Golf
The U.S. Open was not without controversy this year. Thousands of fans flocked to Shinnecock on Long Island, to watch Wyndham Clark take home his second major championship win. But Clark was on the receiving end of some nasty chants and remarks, as fans really wanted someone else to win. "New York ...
Mamdani defends criticism of AIPAC after being accused of antisemitism
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani on Monday defended his remarks last week sharply denouncing the American Israel Public Affairs Committee after prominent Jewish leaders accused him of antisemitism.
Trump Sparks Health Concerns With Confusing ‘Daughter’ Remark
The president posted a picture of an unnamed woman whom he called a “great daughter.”
Trump and Italy's Giorgia Meloni used to be buds. But a rift is widening
"Italy and I do not beg," Meloni said in a video rebuke posted on social media Friday. Italy's top diplomat, meanwhile, said he was cancelling a visit to the U.S because of the alleged remarks.
A Mamdani-backed progressive’s challenge to a veteran Democrat highlights party fractures
The divides between the Democratic old guard and a new class of progressive challenger were on sharp display on Tuesday night as a congressional candidate in New York’s 13th District apologized for past disparaging remarks about Kamala Harris.
JD Vance addresses controversial 'childless cat ladies' comment on 'The View'
JD Vance attempted to explain his controversial 'childless cat ladies' comment on 'The View,' after Joy Behar pressed him on the 'boneheaded' remark that even drew a response from Taylor Swift.
Takeaways from JD Vance’s new book, ‘Communion’
Vance’s second book is focused on his faith and includes his cleanup from his infamous remarks about “childless cat ladies.”
Dana White denounces Josh Hokit’s derogatory remarks toward Michelle Obama
Josh Hokit is making waves in the UFC’s heavyweight division, but some of his recent post-fight remarks aren’t scoring him any points with promotion officials.
Jim Cramer Shows Enthusiasm Around Honeywell’s Aerospace Business Spin-Off
Honeywell International Inc. (NASDAQ:HON) was one of the stocks on Jim Cramer’s radar as he cautioned that SpaceX could blow past its opening price. Cramer highlighted the stock’s rally, as he remarked: You know, I’ve been pretty darn enthusiastic about Honeywell’s plan to spin off its aerospace business later this month, and today the market […]
Cape Verde XI vs Spain – Predicted lineup and team news
Cape Verde face Spain in Atlanta on Monday to make absolute World Cup history.This monumental match represents their first-ever appearance at the global finals, completing a remarkable journey. The Bl...
📝 2026 World Cup, overnight round-up
The full recap of the night at the World Cup!The must-see moment of the nightA remarkable record was broken very early this morning by a rising star who has just revealed himself to the world!Nestory ...
Angst at the Supreme Court before a rush of decisions
Late spring means the Supreme Court is preparing to unleash decisions. Justices have already had a remarkable term. They invalidated much of President Donald Trump’s tariff policy, but also gutted the Voting Rights Act and gave Republicans an advantage in the redistricting war Trump started.
Real Madrid legend could make emotional return in new capacity
Luka Modric’s remarkable playing career could be approaching its final chapter, but his connection with Real Madrid may be far from over.The Croatian midfielder spent 13 trophy-laden years in Madrid...
Elon Musk: SpaceX is about taking the fiction out of science fiction
Elon Musk delivers remarks ahead of the SpaceX IPO debut.
Scientists discover a hidden cause of aging cells that can be reversed
Researchers discovered that declining levels of phosphatidylcholine may be a major cause of age-related mitochondrial dysfunction and loss of cellular energy. Remarkably, boosting this nutrient restored more youthful mitochondrial performance in aging organisms, suggesting some aspects of aging can be slowed or reversed.
http://democrats-energycommerce.house.gov/media/press-releases/pallone-opening-remarks-subcommittee-hearing-health-care-transparency
Energy and Commerce Committee Ranking Member Frank Pallone, Jr. (D-NJ) delivered the following opening remarks at a Health Subcommittee hearing on "Lowering Health Care Costs for All Americans: Examining Policies to Increase Health Care Transparency:"
Tim Cook Delivers Farewell Remarks at His Last Apple Keynote as CEO
Tim Cook closed out what is expected to be his last keynote as Apple's chief executive officer today with some emotive final remarks. Wrapping up a pre-recorded video message, Cook reflected on his tenure at the company. "Some of the highlights of my time as CEO have been events like this, sharing powerful new tools with all of you," he said, adding that what developers create with Apple's platforms has been "a constant reminder that imagination has no limits".
Steve Hilton slams California politicians over lack of ‘energy’ and ‘pride’ in vote counting
Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy discusses California’s chaotic primary election process and Gov. Gavin Newsom’s ‘break the glass’ remarks on ‘Sunday Morning Futures.’
Dr. Andrew Parsons: Dr. ChatGPT is getting remarkably good at diagnosing health problems — but actual doctors are still better at weighing treatment options
A father is worried about his toddler, who has been running a fever for two days and pulling at one ear. A 65-year-old woman has been getting winded on her morning walks and feeling more fatigued than usual. Both reach for their phones and type their symptoms into an AI
Hegseth Criticizes Europe Over Migration ‘Invasion’ in D-Day Speech
The remarks from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reflect many of the Trump administration’s previous assertions on immigrants in Europe, which overlap with the language of European far-right political parties.
AI is getting remarkably good at diagnosing health issues, but doctors are still better at weighing treatment options
Knowing what ails a patient is necessary but not sufficient for determining how to care for them. And how to manage a patient is a complex question.
Ancient Chinese medicine could transform hair loss treatment
A traditional Chinese medicinal root used for over a thousand years is attracting new scientific attention for its potential to combat hair loss. Studies suggest Polygonum multiflorum can block harmful hormones, activate hair-growth signals, protect follicles, and boost blood flow to the scalp. Researchers say the herb’s effects align remarkably well with both ancient descriptions and modern hair biology.
World Ocean Day Celebration at Seacoast Science Center
For Seacoast Science Center, this year marks a remarkable 35 years of providing outstanding coastal and ocean education at Odiorne Point State Park along the New Hampshire seacoast! World Ocean Day, a global celebration that honors our one shared ocean, presents the perfect opportunity for us to invite our community to come together and celebrate the ocean that connects us all.On June 20th, the Center will host its flagship World Ocean Day celebration from 10 AM to 2 PM. Enjoy hands-on games, educational activities, naturalist-led tide pooling sessions, music, and much more! You’ll also have the opportunity to meet local scientists, divers, artists, and conservationists who are dedicated to safeguarding our one world ocean. See the schedule and the organizations joining us on our event web page: https://www.seacoastsciencecenter.org/world-ocean-dayWe can’t wait to see you by the coast for learning, discovery, and plenty of fun, all aimed at inspiring the conservation of our Blue Planet!
Scott asks Tampa Sports Authority to 'carefully review' approval of Ye concerts
In a letter to the TSA, Sen. Rick Scott said he was troubled that taxpayer-supported venue would host an artist who's made antisemitic remarks.
Moment of Science: New research finds elephant whiskers have “built-in” sensory intelligence
It turns out that pachyderms pack quite a bit of sensory power in their trunks! Here's how elephants use their whiskers to remarkable effect. 🐘
How Science Works
The 2nd Weather and Climate Livestream is now underway. It is organized by a group of early-career researchers concerned about declining funding for the field and eager to demonstrate how weather and climate research makes a difference in our lives. Last year’s event was a great success, drawing terrific press coverage including a piece in the NY Times. This year features a strong lineup of talks aimed at a general audience — I highly recommend tuning in. Share I gave a talk yesterday about How Science Works in Three Steps. You can see the short presentation here (I’ve appended a transcript below): And please tune into the livestream here. It runs through tomorrow at 6 pm ET. Thanks for reading The Climate Brink! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work. Subscribe Cleaned up transcript: Thank you, and thanks to everyone tuning in. I want to talk about something I think a lot of people don’t really understand: how science actually works. Arguments over any scientific topic — climate change, vaccines, you name it — revolve around competing claims. For climate change, the claims are: Is the Earth warming? Are humans to blame? What will the impacts be? Over the last 150 years, the scientific community has developed a remarkably robust method for sorting out which claims are true and which aren’t. That method is what I want to walk through. So how does science generate knowledge? If you ask a high schooler, they’ll give you the version they learned in ninth grade: an individual scientist forms a hypothesis, runs an experiment, and draws a conclusion. That’s more or less what happens at the individual level, though in practice it’s more iterative — you design, test, and refine all at once, landing on a slightly different idea each time until you reach a conclusion about whatever hypothesis you’ve ended up with. But this isn’t science. It’s only step one. Any individual scientist can make mistakes — scientists are human. Maybe there’s a bug in the code, maybe there’s an error in the experiment. Just because someone ran an experiment and reached a conclusion doesn’t mean it’s right, and scientists don’t treat a single result as settled truth. Step two is peer review, the first layer of quality control. The scientist writes up what they did and submits it to a journal, which sends the paper to other experts in the field. Those experts judge whether the methods are sound, whether it properly references prior work, and whether the conclusions actually follow from the data. Ask any scientist and they’ll tell you peer review is miserable — the comments come back brutal, often harsh, and you have to revise and resubmit, sometimes multiple times, before an editor finally accepts the paper. Peer review catches an immense amount of bad science, but it can’t catch all of it. Reviewers get sloppy or overworked, they miss obvious mistakes, and they can’t catch hidden errors — a bug in the code, a misread instrument. So a peer-reviewed paper making it into a journal doesn’t mean the paper is right. Nobody treats a single paper as the final word. That’s where step three comes in: the crucible of science. Important results get retested by the broader community. If you publish something interesting, it gets dissected. Sometimes people try to reproduce your work directly but more often they test its implications. If someone claims X is true, and that implies that Y is also true, then scientists will go check Y. If a claim survives this gauntlet long enough, it becomes accepted. That’s how we generate knowledge. Let me give an example: the ozone hole. In 1985 — and I doubt many people watching were around then, but I remember it well — Joe Farman and his colleagues published observations from Antarctica showing that a huge chunk of ozone was disappearing every year. This was shocking because most atmospheric chemists had expected ozone loss to occur at mid-latitudes and high altitudes, not over the South Pole. When scientists see something they don’t understand, they rush to explain it, and several competing hypotheses quickly appeared in the peer-reviewed literature. One pointed to chlorine chemistry from chlorofluorocarbons. A second blamed nitrogen chemistry, possibly driven by solar proton events — meaning the sun was responsible. A third argued it wasn’t chemistry at all but dynamics: winds were carrying naturally low-ozone air from the lower atmosphere up into the stratosphere. Then the community went to work testing which theory could survive the crucible. Aircraft flew into the ozone hole and found no nitrogen, ruling out the nitrogen theory. Measurements showed the air in the polar vortex was descending, not rising — which would bring high-ozone air down, eliminating the dynamics theory. Meanwhile, those same flights measured enormous amounts of chlorine, strongly correlated with exactly the regions where ozone was being destroyed. That became known as the “smoking gun” paper, and it established that chlorine chemistry was the cause. Through this process, a consensus emerged. And it’s worth being clear that this consensus is organic. There’s no vote, no poll, no meeting where it gets decided. Scientists go to conferences, talk to one another, and independently arrived at the same answer. It’s the ultimate free market of ideas. After the consensus was established, the peer-reviewed literature doesn’t even mention the rival theories — it simply takes chlorine chemistry as given. That’s what a consensus looks like. It doesn’t mean every single scientist agrees, but it does mean there’s no longer any legitimate debate. So where can you see what scientists actually think? It’s all in the peer-reviewed literature, which contains the entire historical record of the argument: the discovery, the competing theories, the debate, the testing, and finally the community coalescing around one answer. But there’s a lot of room for misrepresentation. You can dig up an old paper claiming the ozone hole was caused by dynamics and wave it around as if there still was a debate about the cause of the ozone hole — without mentioning that the idea was disproven long ago and that even its own authors no longer believe it. There’s a bigger problem, though: the peer-reviewed literature is written in a language I call “nerd.” It’s extremely hard to read — honestly, some of it is hard for me to follow. It takes graduate students years to work through the literature in a single field, so we can’t expect policymakers or ordinary people to do it. This is where scientific assessments come in. The most famous is the IPCC — the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The job of an assessment is to read and summarize the peer-reviewed literature, synthesizing what’s settled, what’s been disproven, and what remains genuinely debated. To ensure the assessments accurately summarize the peer-reviewed literature, assessments are written by large teams, which are far less prone to bias than individuals and which dilute the influence of any one scientist with an axe to grind. The teams are deliberately assembled to avoid stacking the deck, and the reports themselves go through multiple rounds of peer review. That rigorous process is exactly why you can trust them and why people consider the IPCC to be the gold standard of what we know about the climate system. An assessment produced through a different process may well not be credible. You can even watch the consensus evolve across assessments. Take the attribution of warming. The 1990 IPCC report said the observed warming was broadly consistent with model predictions but also comparable to natural variability — in other words, we don’t know whether humans are responsible. By 1995, it concluded that the balance of evidence suggested a discernible human influence — a sentence only a committee could write, and one that barely commits to anything. By 2001, most of the warming over the previous 50 years was judged “likely” due to greenhouse gases; by 2007, “very likely”; by 2013, “extremely likely.” The 2023 report says essentially the same as 2013 — there’s not much stronger language available. So, to wrap up: science is our ultimate tool for deciphering the universe — the most successful method we’ve ever developed for determining what’s true and what isn’t. Our understanding is written into the peer-reviewed literature, so if you want to know what scientists think, that’s where to look. And for those of us who don’t speak nerd, scientific assessments are the Rosetta Stone — they translate nerd into English. Let me open the floor to questions. Thank you.
Gemini Spark is the most impressive and terrifying AI experience I’ve had yet
It’s a remarkable piece of technology. But the future sure is creepy.
Colorado Democrats slam Tina Peters’ release, while Republicans cheer
Tina Peters, the former Colorado county clerk convicted of breaching her county’s secure voting equipment, drew cheers from fellow Republicans upon her release from prison Monday after Democratic Gov. Jared Polis commuted her sentence. Other state Democrats, however, said remarks the 70-year-old Peters made in an online interview after leaving prison demonstrate that she lacks […]
Column: Easygoing, safe-bet governor may be what California voters want
Regardless of the final vote count, Xavier Becerra’s pre-primary sprint to the front in the race for governor was remarkable and historic.
Political commentators Cenk, Piker say UK bars them over Israel remarks
The US citizens allege that they have been denied entry to Britain due to their outspoken criticism of Israel.
Iran’s Internal Tensions in the Shadow of the Ceasefire
Trump’s remarks “there are alternative leadership options within the regime” & “we are in contact with reasonable figures” hinted to Galibaf.
This strange crystal acts like metal and glass at the same time
A remarkable crystal called molybdenum oxychloride could help make futuristic technologies like smart contact lenses and ultrathin AR glasses a reality. Scientists have created the first detailed experimental map of its optical properties, revealing the strongest light-bending effect ever measured in a natural material. The crystal can act either like a reflective metal or transparent glass, allowing it to manipulate light with extraordinary efficiency while being thousands of times thinner than a human hair.
UW men's rowing caps remarkable season with 3rd straight national title
The top-ranked Washington men’s rowing team capped one of the best seasons in program history by winning its third straight national title in a thrilling final Sunday.
Where do you rate Great American Ballpark?
I was in Cincinnati and Great American Ballpark. I have to say, regardless of the outcome, that I really liked it. Yes, it’s small. Not just the outfield dimensions, though. It’s cute, as the wife remarked. I feel that the rows are closer together in the lower bowl. I didn’t realize how pitched the right […]
Man Utd kid Tyler Fletcher's remarkable Scotland World Cup call
Tyler Fletcher was expecting to go to the World Cup as a fan this summer - now he could be playing in it for Scotland.
Caffeine reversed memory problems caused by sleep deprivation
Scientists discovered that sleep deprivation damages a key brain circuit responsible for social memory, making it harder to recognize familiar individuals. In laboratory studies, caffeine restored communication between neurons in this pathway and reversed the memory deficits caused by lost sleep. The effect was remarkably targeted, helping the impaired circuit recover without overstimulating normal brain function.
IFF Shares Climb on $4.3 Billion Deal to Sell Food-Ingredients Business
Shares in International Flavors & Fragrances ticked up premarket after it struck a $4.3 billion deal to sell its food-ingredients division, its latest move to reshape its business to boost profits. IFF, as the New York-based company is known, is selling the maker of emulsifiers and sweeteners to CV
Jill Biden’s Reaction to Biden’s 2024 Debate: ‘He’s Having a Stroke’
“I had never, ever seen Joe like that,” the former first lady told CBS News in an interview. “Before or since.”
Elliot leaves Gateshead after relegation escape
Gateshead part company with Rob Elliot, the manager who oversaw their remarkable National League relegation escape.
How a Texas Democrat rebuked by her party for antisemitism made it to the runoff
Tuesday’s runoff election in Texas’ 35th District has become for many a referendum on Democrat Maureen Galindo’s remarks, which her party has rebuked as antisemitic, and a test of whether national Democrats, at a time of increasing anti-Israel sentiment in the party base, can stop her from advancing to the general election.
Loyola’s Data Science in Everyday Life
Loyola University Maryland will hold “Data Science in Everyday Life: Applicability, AI, and Other Trends,” a networking and panel event exploring data science from a range of perspectives across industry and government.A keynote address delivered by data science industry expert David Norton, MBA ’95, will begin the event. Norton is the chairman and chief marketing officer of GALE Partners, a digital and analytics-based branding agency. He was named Chief Marketing Officer of the Year in 2010 and wrote “The High Roller Experience,” a book about data-driven marketing.Norton will moderate the panel discussion, which includes:• Elise Beisecker, senior data scientist in the U.S. Government Accountability Office• Amanda Muller, Ph.D., chief of responsible technology at Northrop Grumman• Franklin Hernandez, MBA ’13, M.S. ’20, senior lead machine learning engineer at Booz Allen Hamilton• Joseph Girsch, M.S. ’21, machine learning analyst at The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory• Mark Wicks, retired vice president of data science, data scientist, machine learning engineer and software developerHernandez and Girsch each earned an M.S. in Data Science from Loyola.The event is free and open to the public. Networking and appetizers will begin at 5:30 p.m. followed by the keynote address and panel discussion at 6:30 p.m. and audience questions and closing remarks at 7:30 p.m. To learn more and register to attend or stream the event online, visit the event webpage.
Analysis: Bedlam at Stadium of Light
In truth, the party had been ongoing hours before kick-off but it was bedlam by the end of the match, as fans held heads in hands in disbelief at their remarkable achievement. It is only four years since the Black Cats were in League One, with Luke O'Nien and Trai Hume having been with them throughout the journey and combining here for the first goal. Having only gone up via the Championship play-offs, it is little surprise many predicted Sunderland would struggle.
Sunderland defy expectation to secure European football against dismal Chelsea
A year to the day after they won the Championship play-off final and just four years after they escaped League One, Sunderland brought their remarkable Premier League campaign to a close by qualifying for next season’s Europa League.
Bond breakout? Big effects of bad data. Immigration and thermostatic politics & dad-chat is coming for dad-books.
Thank you for opening your Chartbook email. Anna Airy, A Shell Forge at a National Projectile Factory, Hackney Marshes, London, 1918 Bond breakout - John Authers Across the developed markets, bond markets are staging a slow-motion car wreck. Looking at the drastic moves in the US, Japan, the UK and France, Barclays’ Ajay Rajadhyaksha commented: “Last week, long bonds broke. Not in one country. In all of them. Simultaneously. Four countries. Four different political systems. Four different central banks. But the same trade — “get me out of duration!”” Each country has its own contributing political problems, but the uniformity of the shift out of long-term bonds with high duration makes clear that something broader is afoot. For Rajadhyaksha, it is “simple and uncomfortable.” The developed world “has too much debt, too little fiscal discipline, and no political appetite for fixing either.” If there’s a trigger, it has been the Iran war and the resulting shock to oil supply. Source: Bloomberg G7 countries are now borrowing at rates that were enjoyed by EM in the early 2020s For contributing subscribers only. Subscribe Trade between China and Russia has grown in recent years For contributing subscribers only. Subscribe Big effects of bad data A decade ago nearly nine in ten Americans, when approached, agreed to fill out the Current Population Survey, which is administered to about 60,000 households each month and asks about, among other things, employment. Fewer than seven in ten do so now (see chart 1). For the Consumer Expenditure Survey, which tries to capture 3,700 households monthly, the response rate is down from 68% to 40%. … When the information becomes less reliable, investment decisions get more difficult to make. Some may be delayed, creating a potential drag on the economy. A new working paper by Nicholas Bloom of Stanford University, Erica Groshen, former head of the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) now at Cornell University, and Duncan Hobbs and Michael Strain of the American Enterprise Institute, a think-tank, hazards an estimate. Preserving trust in “the integrity and quality of official statistics”, the authors claim, generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the BLS, the agency with an annual budget of $700m that is responsible for many of these data. To arrive at their conclusion the quartet analysed an ignoble episode in the BLS’s recent history. On August 1st 2025 Donald Trump sacked Erika McEntarfer, appointed as the agency’s commissioner by his predecessor, Joe Biden. The president alleged, without evidence, that the BLS’s steep downward revision to recent jobs numbers had been “RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad”. In fact, it was the wanton dismissal that looked bad in the eyes of many observers. In the following seven days there was a 50% leap, relative to the week before, in the average value of the index of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), which tracks the number of articles mentioning such uncertainty that are published daily in American newspapers. This was a discernible jump even when compared to the chaos caused by Mr Trump’s trade war in April 2025 and his real one in Iran in the past two months (see chart 2). Based on Mr Bloom’s earlier study with other colleagues of the EPU’s impact on business investment, industrial production and employment, the authors estimate that the jump reduced American GDP by over $100bn (0.3%) and non-farm payrolls by 168,000 (0.1%). Source: The Economist Immigration and thermostatic politics (Sarah O’Connor in the FT) A strange thing happened a year and a half ago. No sooner had Americans elected Donald Trump as president on an explicitly anti-immigration platform than US public opinion began to swing much more favourably towards immigration. … to political scientists who study “thermostatic” politics, this development is no surprise at all. Public opinion often moves against the prevailing party, especially if they are perceived to have gone “too far” in one direction. The phenomenon was first explored in the 1990s with reference to fiscal policy, but in recent years it has been particularly evident in the realm of immigration policy. While these swings in opinion polls can make it seem as if people don’t know their own minds, they can be a useful democratic check on governments by sending bright flashing warning lights when policies stray too far from the public’s comfort zone. The problem comes when politicians misinterpret those signals. When people tell pollsters they want less immigration, or think it is bad for the country overall (or the converse), they are often expressing an opinion about how things appear to be going in that moment relative to their preferences, rather than a deep shift in their underlying views. According to Alexander Kustov, a political scientist, most Americans’ views are quite stable and moderate: they support immigration that is controlled and in the national interest, and oppose flows that are disorderly or under-enforced. In the US, he argues the Trump administration over-interpreted dissatisfaction with high immigration under Joe Biden, and implemented policies that went too far for many voters. “People don’t necessarily change their idea about their ideal immigration policy, but they can react to what the government is currently doing,” he told me. “A lot of people are not happy with what the Trump administration are doing — right now we’re not talking about border enforcement, we’re talking about people not just getting harassed, but killed.” But similarly, he added, pro-immigration advocates would be making a mistake to interpret the recent, more favourable swing towards immigration as a deep-seated ideological shift in attitudes. The recent history of UK immigration policy offers another cautionary tale. After the 2016 Brexit referendum, public concern about immigration fell. This was partly because net migration statistics declined, but also because people felt a sense of catharsis and control, says Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, a think-tank. By 2019, the public ranked immigration as only the ninth biggest issue of concern, according to Ipsos polling. But when the Conservative government liberalised visa routes for students and care workers between 2019 and 2022, that helped net migration to surge. And so, too, did public concern. Today’s Labour government has implemented another sharply restrictive turn in immigration policy. As Kustov and researcher Caitlyn Yates argue, thermostatic public opinion should be a useful check on politicians. Instead it seems to have helped to magnify the pendulum swing in the UK. The government over-interprets and overreacts to a change in public opinion, which reacts in turn, prompting a sudden swing the other way. Source: Financial Times HEY READERS, THANK YOU for opening the Chartbook email. I hope it brightens your day. I enjoy putting out the newsletter, but tbh, what keeps this flow going is the generosity of those readers who clicked the subscription button. If you are persuaded to click, please consider the annual subscription of $50. It is both better value for you and a much better deal for me, as it involves only one credit card charge. Why feed the payments companies if we don’t have to. Subscribe Anna Airy, Shop for Machining 15-Inch Shells: Singer Manufacturing Company, Clydebank, Glasgow, 1918 Racing for a vaccine … we have been here before! The deadly Ebola outbreak in two African countries driven by a virus species with no vaccine has triggered an urgent search for a potential jab, in a test of troubled global efforts to avert threats posed by emerging diseases. A World Health Organization advisory group is due to would meet on Tuesday to recommend candidate jabs to prioritise for clinical trials, the global health body said. It will assess data including an analysis by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (Cepi), which was set up after failures in the international response to a previous Ebola crisis. The latest Ebola outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda has infected hundreds of people and killed more than 80, health authorities say. Cepi’s reaction will be a crucial indicator of its progress towards its wider goal of producing vaccines for pandemic threats in just 100 days, despite steep cuts to international health funding. “If there was ever a time that we could show the world why Cepi is needed and show the world why the 100-day mission is needed, it’s now,” Nicole Lurie, the organisation’s executive director for preparedness and response, told the FT. “We’re happy to accept that responsibility, but obviously we need help from partners — particularly financial help in the long run.” DR Congo and Uganda would make the final decision on whether to press ahead with any vaccine candidates endorsed for clinical trials by the WHO experts, the global health body said. “Other ethical and community acceptability issues will be considered,” said the WHO, which declared the latest outbreak a public health emergency of international concern on Sunday. “This will be important to make sure that the trial, if it happens, will be adequately communicated to the population.” Lurie said Cepi had provided information from a survey of research teams and companies working on drugs that might be effective against the Bundibugyo virus behind the outbreak. The organisation hoped soon to announce partners in the quest for a jab, she added, although she declined to give a timescale for when one might be developed. Cepi’s Nicole Laurie said global health bodies were ‘getting some live-fire drills’ with hantavirus and the latest Ebola outbreak. The hunt for a vaccine should be helped by scientific advances including the use of artificial intelligence to find drugs active against viruses, Lurie said. Existing jabs against the Zaire Ebola virus responsible for many previous outbreaks might provide a basis for tackling the Bundibugyo species, she added. “We’ll see how far and how fast we can get,” Lurie said, adding that Cepi had done preliminary work recently on a possible jab for the rat-borne hantavirus responsible for a recent fatal outbreak on a cruise ship. “Both with hantavirus and now with Ebola, [we] are getting some live-fire drills.” Source: Michael Peel in the Financial Times Dad-chat is coming for dad-books. (By Pamela Paul and Jeffrey A. Trachtenberg in the WSJ) They were the go-to gifts for Father’s Day: a book about some little-known chapter of World War II, the sweeping narrative of a shipwreck, perhaps the latest presidential biography. These days, dad books are a dying breed. Nonfiction book sales have been in decline for the past four years, and are now the most challenged segment of the print book market. Publishers say certain types of books still fare well—including celebrity memoirs and religious titles. But in recent years, print sales in such categories as biography, current affairs and business and economics—what publishers refer to as “serious nonfiction” and which tend to resonate especially with men—have fallen considerably. Sales of nonfiction print titles were down nearly 8% through May 9 this year, and sales of books about politics and current affairs were down 19%, according to book tracker Circana BookScan. Publishing has long been subject to cyclical changes, with trends in format and genre taking over bookshelves in grand sweeps. (Remember the adult coloring-book craze? Or the stratospheric rise of romantasy?) But many in publishing believe the decline in serious nonfiction is more existential. “The trend couldn’t be clearer,” said Jonathan Karp, the former chief executive of Simon & Schuster and publisher of the new Simon Six imprint. “This is a sea change and people should wake up and realize we’re living in a new world.” One culprit for the shift: a new media diet for fans of more serious nonfiction. … Sixty-two percent of men and 54% of women consumed a podcast in the prior month, according to a recent survey by Edison Research at SSRS, up from 46% and 39%, respectively, in 2023. “When we have internal meetings to talk about this problem, it always comes around to podcasts,” said Jonathan Burnham, president and publisher of the Harper Group at HarperCollins Publishers. “The man who wants to read American history is now tuning into one of the many good podcasts about history that lends the quiet attention to a serious subject he’s looking for. It makes the idea of sitting down with a 700-page Ron Chernow book less appealing. You’ve scratched that itch.” Source: Wall Street Journal Remarkable report by Novara from the nationalist rally in London in mid May. Anna Airy, Leopard Moth and Plums, 1915 If you’ve scrolled this far, you know you want to click: Subscribe
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