SCROLL NEWS / DISCOVERY
Search headlines
Find the stories shaping the conversation.
Results for " mistake " 539 found 🔀 AI-powered Shuffle
Arizona Cardinals' made big offseason mistake to cause current problems
The Arizona Cardinals' situation with Jacoby Brissett was their own fault for a premature QB decision in the spring.
https://9to5mac.com/2026/06/08/watchos-27-apple-watch-update-details/
Although watchOS 27 drops support for several older Apple Watch models, Apple has confirmed to 9to5Mac that one compatible model was mistakenly left out of its official list.
Chargers may have made mistake drafting Omarion Hampton
Omarion Hampton was selected with the No. 22 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
OHSU told 13-year-old’s parents she was dying before Seattle doctors discovered massive mistake, $17M suit sa
A new lawsuit claims that an OHSU surgeon installed a heart valve upside down, leaving the girl reliant on life support for 18 days.
Cameras Caught Victor Wembanyama Ignoring Stephon Castle’s Message Before Costly Mistake vs Knicks
In 1993, Chris Webber called a timeout he didn’t have in the NCAA championship game. In 2018, JR Smith forgot the score in Game 1 of the Finals.
GOG apologizes for emailing people Nazi symbols
The company blamed “a series of mistakes” and inconsistent font rendering.
Mariners drop first game of road trip 7-3
There’s a baseball cliche when a pitcher has an OK night but still takes the L: “He just made the one mistake, and it got punished.” It’s tempting to tag that to Bryan Woo in tonight’s 7-3 loss to the Tigers, but I’m not so sure it’s true. The pitch you’d want to pin that […]
Young men are leaving Trump. Can a UFC fight at the White House get them back in the ring?
Do not mistake the massive mixed martial arts arena rising out of the White House lawn for a political statement, insists Ultimate Fighting Championship president Dana White. It is, he told CNN, simply part of the celebration for America’s 250th birthday.
Overnight Amtrak train: Travel mistakes I made on a 15-hour ride
On a 2025 overnight Amtrak train ride from Denver to Salt Lake City, I regretted arriving at the dining car early and leaving snacks at home.
I relocated abroad. I should have done 7 things differently.
I made some mistakes when I moved abroad. If I did it all over again, I'd act like a tourist and network more.
4 reasons to start a business in your 50s
At 50, you’ve earned the relationships, made valuable mistakes, and know your own voice.
How Science Works
The 2nd Weather and Climate Livestream is now underway. It is organized by a group of early-career researchers concerned about declining funding for the field and eager to demonstrate how weather and climate research makes a difference in our lives. Last year’s event was a great success, drawing terrific press coverage including a piece in the NY Times. This year features a strong lineup of talks aimed at a general audience — I highly recommend tuning in. Share I gave a talk yesterday about How Science Works in Three Steps. You can see the short presentation here (I’ve appended a transcript below): And please tune into the livestream here. It runs through tomorrow at 6 pm ET. Thanks for reading The Climate Brink! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work. Subscribe Cleaned up transcript: Thank you, and thanks to everyone tuning in. I want to talk about something I think a lot of people don’t really understand: how science actually works. Arguments over any scientific topic — climate change, vaccines, you name it — revolve around competing claims. For climate change, the claims are: Is the Earth warming? Are humans to blame? What will the impacts be? Over the last 150 years, the scientific community has developed a remarkably robust method for sorting out which claims are true and which aren’t. That method is what I want to walk through. So how does science generate knowledge? If you ask a high schooler, they’ll give you the version they learned in ninth grade: an individual scientist forms a hypothesis, runs an experiment, and draws a conclusion. That’s more or less what happens at the individual level, though in practice it’s more iterative — you design, test, and refine all at once, landing on a slightly different idea each time until you reach a conclusion about whatever hypothesis you’ve ended up with. But this isn’t science. It’s only step one. Any individual scientist can make mistakes — scientists are human. Maybe there’s a bug in the code, maybe there’s an error in the experiment. Just because someone ran an experiment and reached a conclusion doesn’t mean it’s right, and scientists don’t treat a single result as settled truth. Step two is peer review, the first layer of quality control. The scientist writes up what they did and submits it to a journal, which sends the paper to other experts in the field. Those experts judge whether the methods are sound, whether it properly references prior work, and whether the conclusions actually follow from the data. Ask any scientist and they’ll tell you peer review is miserable — the comments come back brutal, often harsh, and you have to revise and resubmit, sometimes multiple times, before an editor finally accepts the paper. Peer review catches an immense amount of bad science, but it can’t catch all of it. Reviewers get sloppy or overworked, they miss obvious mistakes, and they can’t catch hidden errors — a bug in the code, a misread instrument. So a peer-reviewed paper making it into a journal doesn’t mean the paper is right. Nobody treats a single paper as the final word. That’s where step three comes in: the crucible of science. Important results get retested by the broader community. If you publish something interesting, it gets dissected. Sometimes people try to reproduce your work directly but more often they test its implications. If someone claims X is true, and that implies that Y is also true, then scientists will go check Y. If a claim survives this gauntlet long enough, it becomes accepted. That’s how we generate knowledge. Let me give an example: the ozone hole. In 1985 — and I doubt many people watching were around then, but I remember it well — Joe Farman and his colleagues published observations from Antarctica showing that a huge chunk of ozone was disappearing every year. This was shocking because most atmospheric chemists had expected ozone loss to occur at mid-latitudes and high altitudes, not over the South Pole. When scientists see something they don’t understand, they rush to explain it, and several competing hypotheses quickly appeared in the peer-reviewed literature. One pointed to chlorine chemistry from chlorofluorocarbons. A second blamed nitrogen chemistry, possibly driven by solar proton events — meaning the sun was responsible. A third argued it wasn’t chemistry at all but dynamics: winds were carrying naturally low-ozone air from the lower atmosphere up into the stratosphere. Then the community went to work testing which theory could survive the crucible. Aircraft flew into the ozone hole and found no nitrogen, ruling out the nitrogen theory. Measurements showed the air in the polar vortex was descending, not rising — which would bring high-ozone air down, eliminating the dynamics theory. Meanwhile, those same flights measured enormous amounts of chlorine, strongly correlated with exactly the regions where ozone was being destroyed. That became known as the “smoking gun” paper, and it established that chlorine chemistry was the cause. Through this process, a consensus emerged. And it’s worth being clear that this consensus is organic. There’s no vote, no poll, no meeting where it gets decided. Scientists go to conferences, talk to one another, and independently arrived at the same answer. It’s the ultimate free market of ideas. After the consensus was established, the peer-reviewed literature doesn’t even mention the rival theories — it simply takes chlorine chemistry as given. That’s what a consensus looks like. It doesn’t mean every single scientist agrees, but it does mean there’s no longer any legitimate debate. So where can you see what scientists actually think? It’s all in the peer-reviewed literature, which contains the entire historical record of the argument: the discovery, the competing theories, the debate, the testing, and finally the community coalescing around one answer. But there’s a lot of room for misrepresentation. You can dig up an old paper claiming the ozone hole was caused by dynamics and wave it around as if there still was a debate about the cause of the ozone hole — without mentioning that the idea was disproven long ago and that even its own authors no longer believe it. There’s a bigger problem, though: the peer-reviewed literature is written in a language I call “nerd.” It’s extremely hard to read — honestly, some of it is hard for me to follow. It takes graduate students years to work through the literature in a single field, so we can’t expect policymakers or ordinary people to do it. This is where scientific assessments come in. The most famous is the IPCC — the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The job of an assessment is to read and summarize the peer-reviewed literature, synthesizing what’s settled, what’s been disproven, and what remains genuinely debated. To ensure the assessments accurately summarize the peer-reviewed literature, assessments are written by large teams, which are far less prone to bias than individuals and which dilute the influence of any one scientist with an axe to grind. The teams are deliberately assembled to avoid stacking the deck, and the reports themselves go through multiple rounds of peer review. That rigorous process is exactly why you can trust them and why people consider the IPCC to be the gold standard of what we know about the climate system. An assessment produced through a different process may well not be credible. You can even watch the consensus evolve across assessments. Take the attribution of warming. The 1990 IPCC report said the observed warming was broadly consistent with model predictions but also comparable to natural variability — in other words, we don’t know whether humans are responsible. By 1995, it concluded that the balance of evidence suggested a discernible human influence — a sentence only a committee could write, and one that barely commits to anything. By 2001, most of the warming over the previous 50 years was judged “likely” due to greenhouse gases; by 2007, “very likely”; by 2013, “extremely likely.” The 2023 report says essentially the same as 2013 — there’s not much stronger language available. So, to wrap up: science is our ultimate tool for deciphering the universe — the most successful method we’ve ever developed for determining what’s true and what isn’t. Our understanding is written into the peer-reviewed literature, so if you want to know what scientists think, that’s where to look. And for those of us who don’t speak nerd, scientific assessments are the Rosetta Stone — they translate nerd into English. Let me open the floor to questions. Thank you.
Bill Gurley says AI job fears echo a historic mistake
The veteran VC says innovation has historically created prosperity, and he believes AI will too.
15 Biggest Regrets of Business Majors
From avoiding risks to saying yes to everything, here are the mistakes that colleges students wish they hadn't made.
Comeback at Colonial: Russell Henley tops Eric Cole in playoff
Eric Cole held the 54-hole lead entering the final round but couldn't gain separation despite a mistake-free back nine on Sunday. Russell Henley took advantage with a surge of birdies down the stretch to force a playoff.
UT's Weekly calls Panell's handshake accusation 'outright lie'
Texas Tech third baseman Taylor Pannell claimed Tennessee coach Karen Weekly told her she made a mistake for transferring from Tennessee following the Volunteers' 2-1 victory in extra innings Saturday at the WCWS.
Giants Lose, but Logan Webb Sees Promise in Return
Giants' Logan Webb was disappointed with a few mistakes in his first start off the injured list, but remained encouraged.
Sajid Javid says backing Liz Truss to lead Tories was his ‘biggest political mistake’
Former chancellor also tells Hay festival ‘good riddance’ to Tory MPs defecting to Reform
Sony Is Wrong To Take ‘Destiny 2’ Support Down To Absolute Zero
When Sony says Destiny 2 is getting no more updates, they truly mean zero, and that is a big mistake for a franchsie this storied.
An important exception to a common course strategy rule
A recent mistake underscored that the smart play and the right play can differ.
Here's the No. 1 breakfast mistake Americans make every morning, says oncologist and longevity expert
Ezekiel J. Emanuel has spent 35 years as an oncologist and expert on health policy. He shares his breakfast tips for better metabolic health, energy and longevity.
West Virginia's Rich Rodriguez admits Michigan job 'was a mistake' after failed Wolverines tenure
As Rich Rod 2.0 hits Year 2 in Morgantown, the WVU coach reflected on his Michigan failures
Going swimming? This 1 small water mistake can lead to diarrhea or worse, health officials warn
It's not just at beaches -- Illinois health officials warned that the illnesses can be contracted by people swimming in pools, hot tubs, spas, water parks, rivers and more.
Alyssa Farah Griffin calls Donald Trump Jr.'s wedding his 'funeral' in shocking on-air slip
'The View' star Alyssa Farah Griffin shocks audience, mistakenly calls Donald Trump Jr.'s wedding his 'funeral' live on the air.
Scientists Discovered Remains of the Earliest Animals on Earth. They May Have Made a Big Mistake.
They looked like traces left behind by tiny creatures, but were most likely microbes.
Scientists Discovered Remains of the Earliest Animals on Earth. They May Have Made a Big Mistake.
They looked like traces left behind by tiny creatures, but were most likely microbes.
Ohio Gov. DeWine talks endorsing Ramaswamy, why legalizing sports betting is his 'biggest mistake'
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine reflected on his time in office, shared plans for his post-politics life and touched briefly on the current governor’s race during a recent forum.
Semiconductor decoupling. Powell's politics. Industrializing Ogaden. Free trade and the Magna Carta.
Thank you for opening your Chartbook email. Feliks Topolski, 1907-1989 8th Army’s Front, Italy 1944 Semiconductor decoupling Source: FT One thing that Jerome Powell deeply understood is that chairing the Fed under current conditions is a deeply political job. “Powell has successes and mistakes to his name. But he stands out as having thought more carefully about the Fed’s democratic legitimacy than any chair since Paul Volcker,” said Paul Tucker, a former deputy governor at the Bank of England, referring to the Fed chair who successfully fought the great inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s. … While Powell was at the Treasury in the early 1990s, he watched Alan Greenspan build relationships within the government. That convinced Powell he needed to follow the former Fed chair’s lead and spend more time in Congress than his predecessors Yellen and Bernanke. “The accountability for the Fed runs through Congress,” said Claudia Sahm, a former Fed official who is now chief economist at New Century Advisors. “That’s not just about having people on speed dial — it’s answering questions, explaining policy and getting feedback.” Source: FT Ethiopia’s PM Abiy and Nigerian business tycoon, with Chinese engineering, are driving industrialization in Ogaden/Somali region of Ethiopia. - Michael Masri’s reporting for Africa Report if fascinating. Ethiopia has launched a cluster of large industrial schemes in the Somali region, laying foundation stones for a urea plant and an oil refinery in Gode while opening the first two phases of the Ogaden LNG project. Abiy Ahmed framed the push as part of a broader strategy to link energy, agriculture and industry. “These projects embody more than industrial growth,” he said. “They represent our shared responsibility to harness opportunities, strengthen co-operation and promote peace.” The Gode urea plant, backed by Dangote Group and Ethiopian Investment Holdings (EIH), is designed for 3m tonnes a year. Dangote owns 60%, while EIH holds 40%. Officials say Dangote’s equity totals about $2.5bn, while the state provides land and implementation oversight. Gas from the Calub fields will be piped 108km to the site. Construction is slated for 40 months, with operations targeted for 2028. Ethiopia imports most of its fertiliser, spending more than $1.2bn a year for 1.5m–2m tonnes. Usage was roughly 1.7m tonnes in 2023, almost half of it urea, and demand for 2024–25 is put above 2.4m tonnes. If delivered on time, the Gode plant could cover domestic needs and allow exports to neighbours. Brook Taye, chief executive of EIH, called the venture “a significant milestone in the journey toward industrial self-sufficiency”. Dangote told the groundbreaking crowd that the complex would be integrated with gas supply and a polypropylene unit to support local inputs. He pointed to Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), with a capacity of more than 5,000MW, and noted his group’s cement operations and expansion plans. The Gode refinery is being developed by Golden Concord Group of China. It is designed to process 3.5m tonnes a year of crude and condensate from the Hilala field, with associated storage. Backers say it will ease foreign-exchange pressure from fuel imports and anchor further industrial activity, including a proposed steel smelting site in Dire Dawa. GCL’s chair, Zhu Gongshan, cast the project as “a key step in Ethiopia’s path to energy sovereignty”, underscoring the Beijing–Addis ties. Financing details are still being finalised, but the refinery is central to the government’s energy-security narrative. Source: The Africa Report Dangote’s Ethiopian vision: Dangote began with cement. His crown jewel, Dangote Cement, dominates Nigeria’s market and has 10 operations in other nations in Africa. The formula has been consistent: identify sectors with chronic shortages – cement, fertiliser, sugar – commit massive local investments, and scale up to serve regional demand. Ethiopia was a natural extension of that model. In 2015, Dangote launched the Mugher Cement Plant outside Addis Ababa at a cost of $600m, with an annual capacity of 2.5 million tonnes. The investment gave him a firm foothold in one of Africa’s fastest-growing construction markets. But success came with risks. In May 2018, violent unrest led to the killing of Dangote’s country manager and temporary shutdowns at Mugher. While other investors might have retreated, Dangote doubled down. Today, he is preparing to spend $400m to expand Mugher’s capacity to 5 million tonnes, alongside a new grinding unit near Addis Ababa. Cement is just one market Dangote is targeting. Ethiopia’s enormous state-controlled sugar industry, long plagued by inefficiency and debt, has struggled for years to reform. Its Omo Kuraz Sugar Development Project, touted as one of the continent’s largest initiatives, continues to face delays and mismanagement. … The most ambitious venture of all is the planned fertiliser production complex in Gode, Somali region. Publicised on 28 August 2025, the Dangote Group and Ethiopian Investment Holdings (EIH) deal plans one of the world’s largest single-site urea manufacturing plants. The project costs an estimated $2.5bn and has an estimated capacity of 3 million metric tonnes annually, a rate that would not only render Ethiopia independent, but even a net exporter of fertiliser. EIH, the state wealth fund of Ethiopia, will hold 40%, while 60% is held by Dangote Group. … For Dangote, Ethiopia is a trifecta: Cement demand is projected to grow by 10% annually, its sugar consumption is growing with rapid urbanisation, and fertiliser demand is all but insatiable, given that farming supports the livelihood of 70% of Ethiopians. Source: The Africa Report The stakes for Abiy are high: For Addis Ababa, the $4bn fertiliser project in Ethiopia’s Somali region is no longer simply a manufacturing investment. It is increasingly being framed as a strategic state project tied to food sovereignty, import substitution and the government’s broader attempt to build economic resilience under mounting fiscal pressure. “Becoming self-sufficient in food is our main agenda,” Abiy says during the visit. “Land is needed; we have it. Water is needed; we have it. Human resources are needed; we have it.” The scale is enormous even by African industrial standards. Once operational, the plant is expected to produce three million metric tonnes of urea annually, potentially making it one of the continent’s largest fertiliser complexes. Ethiopian officials say the project now includes a 110km gas pipeline, a 120MW power plant, a polypropylene packaging facility and a two-million-tonne NPK blending plant. For a government grappling with chronic foreign exchange shortages, ballooning import bills and pressure on agricultural productivity, the numbers matter politically as much as they do economically. The decision to anchor the project in Gode is deliberate. Long viewed as peripheral to Ethiopia’s industrial economy, the Somali region is now being repositioned by the federal government as a future irrigation and agro-industrial corridor. Officials argue that the area’s vast land reserves and access to water could eventually support large-scale commercial farming capable of reshaping Ethiopia’s food economy. The government is simultaneously building housing infrastructure for about 5,000 residents near the plant, while officials project broader industrial expansion along the corridor. Abiy goes further, comparing the long-term revenue potential of the Gode development zone with Ethiopia’s flagship state enterprise. “The investments we are making in this Gode area, combined, will generate high revenue for Ethiopia, at par with Ethiopian Airlines,” he says. Source: The Africa Report Feliks Topolski 1907-1982 Topolski’s Chronicle, ‘Nazi Revival’, Vol. 8, Is. 1-2, 1960 HEY READERS, THANK YOU for opening the Chartbook email. I hope it brightens your day. I enjoy putting out the newsletter, but tbh, what keeps this flow going is the generosity of those readers who clicked the subscription button. Photo by Jakub Dziubak on Unsplash If you are persuaded to click, please consider the annual subscription of $50. It is both better value for you and a much better deal for me, as it involves only one credit card charge. Why feed the payments companies if we don’t have to. Subscribe Grim vision of drone warfare by Sylvie Kaufmann For contributing subscribers only. Subscribe The state of the art in Colbert-studies. Jean-Baptiste Colbert was Louis XIV chief minister from 1661 to 1683 and traditionally seen as an architect of absolutism and mercantilism. Alexander Hamilton later cited him as an inspiration in 1782. Now his legacy is disputed. Daniel Dessert, the chief critic, sees Colbert as the orchestrator not so much of an absolutist state as of an elite cabal. Would be great to have a good English-language review of this important debate. Source: lhistoire Didn’t know that the Magna Carta included free trade provisions Fighting for the right to the beach in Oregon in 1967: Source: Research Gate RAF Station – British and Polish Flags, c. 1940-45, The Ingram Collection Feliks Topolski, 1907-1989 ink and wash If you’ve scrolled this far, you know you want to click: Subscribe
Olympiakos beats Real Madrid 92-85 to win EuroLeague title
Olympiakos clinched the EuroLeague basketball title on Sunday, beating Real Madrid 92-85 despite a late stretch of mistakes. Alec Peters hit the final free throw as Olympiakos secured its fourth continental crown, sparking wild celebrations at the Telekom Center in Athens and across the Greek capital. “Blessed is the only word I have,” the American-born Peters said.
Outlet apologizes for misquoting 'Outlander' star Caitríona Balfe, reporting she called Scotland town 'an armpit'
'Outlander' star Caitríona Balfe has had her name cleared after an outlet mistakenly reported that she called a small Scottish town an 'armpit' in an interview.
The hill I will die on: If Hollywood blockbusters must dabble in science, can’t they get the small stuff right?
Project Hail Mary, Jurassic Park: from dino-mosquitoes to a spaceship’s roar, pointless mistakes on the scientific details make me wince, says science writer Helen Pilcher
AI hallucinations are infiltrating expert work—and entering the permanent body of knowledge
Academic papers, popular books, and legal decisions are peppered with AI mistakes that are getting harder to clean up.
5 common walking mistakes that could hurt your progress, according to an expert
Walking has many proven health benefits, but common mistakes like scrolling and wearing the wrong shoes could cause more harm than good, expert says.
A mistaken commutation and an over-the-top reaction
It seemed an itch that Gov. Jared Polis just had to scratch. After months of hints and speculation, Polis put his signature on a commutation of the prison sentence of Colorado’s election-denying queen, former Mesa County Clerk Tina Peters. True, Peters’s break was one of 44 commutations and pardons announced en masse by Polis late […]
Bond breakout? Big effects of bad data. Immigration and thermostatic politics & dad-chat is coming for dad-books.
Thank you for opening your Chartbook email. Anna Airy, A Shell Forge at a National Projectile Factory, Hackney Marshes, London, 1918 Bond breakout - John Authers Across the developed markets, bond markets are staging a slow-motion car wreck. Looking at the drastic moves in the US, Japan, the UK and France, Barclays’ Ajay Rajadhyaksha commented: “Last week, long bonds broke. Not in one country. In all of them. Simultaneously. Four countries. Four different political systems. Four different central banks. But the same trade — “get me out of duration!”” Each country has its own contributing political problems, but the uniformity of the shift out of long-term bonds with high duration makes clear that something broader is afoot. For Rajadhyaksha, it is “simple and uncomfortable.” The developed world “has too much debt, too little fiscal discipline, and no political appetite for fixing either.” If there’s a trigger, it has been the Iran war and the resulting shock to oil supply. Source: Bloomberg G7 countries are now borrowing at rates that were enjoyed by EM in the early 2020s For contributing subscribers only. Subscribe Trade between China and Russia has grown in recent years For contributing subscribers only. Subscribe Big effects of bad data A decade ago nearly nine in ten Americans, when approached, agreed to fill out the Current Population Survey, which is administered to about 60,000 households each month and asks about, among other things, employment. Fewer than seven in ten do so now (see chart 1). For the Consumer Expenditure Survey, which tries to capture 3,700 households monthly, the response rate is down from 68% to 40%. … When the information becomes less reliable, investment decisions get more difficult to make. Some may be delayed, creating a potential drag on the economy. A new working paper by Nicholas Bloom of Stanford University, Erica Groshen, former head of the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) now at Cornell University, and Duncan Hobbs and Michael Strain of the American Enterprise Institute, a think-tank, hazards an estimate. Preserving trust in “the integrity and quality of official statistics”, the authors claim, generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the BLS, the agency with an annual budget of $700m that is responsible for many of these data. To arrive at their conclusion the quartet analysed an ignoble episode in the BLS’s recent history. On August 1st 2025 Donald Trump sacked Erika McEntarfer, appointed as the agency’s commissioner by his predecessor, Joe Biden. The president alleged, without evidence, that the BLS’s steep downward revision to recent jobs numbers had been “RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad”. In fact, it was the wanton dismissal that looked bad in the eyes of many observers. In the following seven days there was a 50% leap, relative to the week before, in the average value of the index of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), which tracks the number of articles mentioning such uncertainty that are published daily in American newspapers. This was a discernible jump even when compared to the chaos caused by Mr Trump’s trade war in April 2025 and his real one in Iran in the past two months (see chart 2). Based on Mr Bloom’s earlier study with other colleagues of the EPU’s impact on business investment, industrial production and employment, the authors estimate that the jump reduced American GDP by over $100bn (0.3%) and non-farm payrolls by 168,000 (0.1%). Source: The Economist Immigration and thermostatic politics (Sarah O’Connor in the FT) A strange thing happened a year and a half ago. No sooner had Americans elected Donald Trump as president on an explicitly anti-immigration platform than US public opinion began to swing much more favourably towards immigration. … to political scientists who study “thermostatic” politics, this development is no surprise at all. Public opinion often moves against the prevailing party, especially if they are perceived to have gone “too far” in one direction. The phenomenon was first explored in the 1990s with reference to fiscal policy, but in recent years it has been particularly evident in the realm of immigration policy. While these swings in opinion polls can make it seem as if people don’t know their own minds, they can be a useful democratic check on governments by sending bright flashing warning lights when policies stray too far from the public’s comfort zone. The problem comes when politicians misinterpret those signals. When people tell pollsters they want less immigration, or think it is bad for the country overall (or the converse), they are often expressing an opinion about how things appear to be going in that moment relative to their preferences, rather than a deep shift in their underlying views. According to Alexander Kustov, a political scientist, most Americans’ views are quite stable and moderate: they support immigration that is controlled and in the national interest, and oppose flows that are disorderly or under-enforced. In the US, he argues the Trump administration over-interpreted dissatisfaction with high immigration under Joe Biden, and implemented policies that went too far for many voters. “People don’t necessarily change their idea about their ideal immigration policy, but they can react to what the government is currently doing,” he told me. “A lot of people are not happy with what the Trump administration are doing — right now we’re not talking about border enforcement, we’re talking about people not just getting harassed, but killed.” But similarly, he added, pro-immigration advocates would be making a mistake to interpret the recent, more favourable swing towards immigration as a deep-seated ideological shift in attitudes. The recent history of UK immigration policy offers another cautionary tale. After the 2016 Brexit referendum, public concern about immigration fell. This was partly because net migration statistics declined, but also because people felt a sense of catharsis and control, says Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, a think-tank. By 2019, the public ranked immigration as only the ninth biggest issue of concern, according to Ipsos polling. But when the Conservative government liberalised visa routes for students and care workers between 2019 and 2022, that helped net migration to surge. And so, too, did public concern. Today’s Labour government has implemented another sharply restrictive turn in immigration policy. As Kustov and researcher Caitlyn Yates argue, thermostatic public opinion should be a useful check on politicians. Instead it seems to have helped to magnify the pendulum swing in the UK. The government over-interprets and overreacts to a change in public opinion, which reacts in turn, prompting a sudden swing the other way. Source: Financial Times HEY READERS, THANK YOU for opening the Chartbook email. I hope it brightens your day. I enjoy putting out the newsletter, but tbh, what keeps this flow going is the generosity of those readers who clicked the subscription button. If you are persuaded to click, please consider the annual subscription of $50. It is both better value for you and a much better deal for me, as it involves only one credit card charge. Why feed the payments companies if we don’t have to. Subscribe Anna Airy, Shop for Machining 15-Inch Shells: Singer Manufacturing Company, Clydebank, Glasgow, 1918 Racing for a vaccine … we have been here before! The deadly Ebola outbreak in two African countries driven by a virus species with no vaccine has triggered an urgent search for a potential jab, in a test of troubled global efforts to avert threats posed by emerging diseases. A World Health Organization advisory group is due to would meet on Tuesday to recommend candidate jabs to prioritise for clinical trials, the global health body said. It will assess data including an analysis by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (Cepi), which was set up after failures in the international response to a previous Ebola crisis. The latest Ebola outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda has infected hundreds of people and killed more than 80, health authorities say. Cepi’s reaction will be a crucial indicator of its progress towards its wider goal of producing vaccines for pandemic threats in just 100 days, despite steep cuts to international health funding. “If there was ever a time that we could show the world why Cepi is needed and show the world why the 100-day mission is needed, it’s now,” Nicole Lurie, the organisation’s executive director for preparedness and response, told the FT. “We’re happy to accept that responsibility, but obviously we need help from partners — particularly financial help in the long run.” DR Congo and Uganda would make the final decision on whether to press ahead with any vaccine candidates endorsed for clinical trials by the WHO experts, the global health body said. “Other ethical and community acceptability issues will be considered,” said the WHO, which declared the latest outbreak a public health emergency of international concern on Sunday. “This will be important to make sure that the trial, if it happens, will be adequately communicated to the population.” Lurie said Cepi had provided information from a survey of research teams and companies working on drugs that might be effective against the Bundibugyo virus behind the outbreak. The organisation hoped soon to announce partners in the quest for a jab, she added, although she declined to give a timescale for when one might be developed. Cepi’s Nicole Laurie said global health bodies were ‘getting some live-fire drills’ with hantavirus and the latest Ebola outbreak. The hunt for a vaccine should be helped by scientific advances including the use of artificial intelligence to find drugs active against viruses, Lurie said. Existing jabs against the Zaire Ebola virus responsible for many previous outbreaks might provide a basis for tackling the Bundibugyo species, she added. “We’ll see how far and how fast we can get,” Lurie said, adding that Cepi had done preliminary work recently on a possible jab for the rat-borne hantavirus responsible for a recent fatal outbreak on a cruise ship. “Both with hantavirus and now with Ebola, [we] are getting some live-fire drills.” Source: Michael Peel in the Financial Times Dad-chat is coming for dad-books. (By Pamela Paul and Jeffrey A. Trachtenberg in the WSJ) They were the go-to gifts for Father’s Day: a book about some little-known chapter of World War II, the sweeping narrative of a shipwreck, perhaps the latest presidential biography. These days, dad books are a dying breed. Nonfiction book sales have been in decline for the past four years, and are now the most challenged segment of the print book market. Publishers say certain types of books still fare well—including celebrity memoirs and religious titles. But in recent years, print sales in such categories as biography, current affairs and business and economics—what publishers refer to as “serious nonfiction” and which tend to resonate especially with men—have fallen considerably. Sales of nonfiction print titles were down nearly 8% through May 9 this year, and sales of books about politics and current affairs were down 19%, according to book tracker Circana BookScan. Publishing has long been subject to cyclical changes, with trends in format and genre taking over bookshelves in grand sweeps. (Remember the adult coloring-book craze? Or the stratospheric rise of romantasy?) But many in publishing believe the decline in serious nonfiction is more existential. “The trend couldn’t be clearer,” said Jonathan Karp, the former chief executive of Simon & Schuster and publisher of the new Simon Six imprint. “This is a sea change and people should wake up and realize we’re living in a new world.” One culprit for the shift: a new media diet for fans of more serious nonfiction. … Sixty-two percent of men and 54% of women consumed a podcast in the prior month, according to a recent survey by Edison Research at SSRS, up from 46% and 39%, respectively, in 2023. “When we have internal meetings to talk about this problem, it always comes around to podcasts,” said Jonathan Burnham, president and publisher of the Harper Group at HarperCollins Publishers. “The man who wants to read American history is now tuning into one of the many good podcasts about history that lends the quiet attention to a serious subject he’s looking for. It makes the idea of sitting down with a 700-page Ron Chernow book less appealing. You’ve scratched that itch.” Source: Wall Street Journal Remarkable report by Novara from the nationalist rally in London in mid May. Anna Airy, Leopard Moth and Plums, 1915 If you’ve scrolled this far, you know you want to click: Subscribe
NFL, to its credit, admits MNF doubleheaders were a dud
It's human nature to resist admitting mistakes.
Complex animals evolved up to 10 million years earlier than previously thought, fossil discovery shows
Trove of fossils discovered in Canada sheds light on "when life first became large, complex and unmistakenly animal."
Steven Thrasher on Why We Must Think Past Skin-Deep Identity Politics
A conversation with the author of The Overseer Class about how people from marginalized groups can "mistake representation for liberation and confuse visibility with safety," as Kwaneta Harris put it.
I saw Ebola as both doctor and patient. I wish people cared more about the Africans I worked alongside
“As another Ebola outbreak unfolds, we cannot repeat the mistakes of the past,” writes Krutika Kuppalli.
A politician admits a mistake? Never happens, but it did in Seattle
Mayor Katie Wilson has acknowledged it was a mistake to call for a boycott of hometown Starbucks. More politicians need to admit when they bungle something.
GTA 6 Price Mistakenly Appears on PlayStation Store For 16p
Whilst getting Grand Theft Auto 6 for the low price of 16p would be a bargain, the PlayStation Store listing appears to be an error.
Colorado’s prisons are underfunded, not overcrowded
By John Kellner The state does not have a “prison crowding” problem. It has a prison under-capacity problem. This is a crucial distinction for lawmakers and the public to understand. If it is not properly understood, the state risks falling into the same kind of criminal justice system spiral that mistakes leniency for clemency. This […]
🎥 The maddest moments in the Copa Sudamericana
The Copa Sudamericana was also in action today, and these were the best moments from a crazy Tuesday. The STRANGEST moment!This mistake has no name... Deportivo Riestra goalkeeper Ignacio Arce conced...
DEI experts say the acronym may be radioactive, but the underlying business case is stronger than ever
Two former chief diversity officers say companies that abandon DEI under pressure are making a costly, long-term business mistake.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba points out glaring mistake on offensive player of the year award: 'It's getting disrespectful'
Scientists stunned by new Yellowstone discovery: what it means for the next eruption - Futura-Sciences
Yellowstone: The Supervolcano That Never Sleeps Yellowstone is widely regarded as one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world. Why? It’s a supervolcano, known for its potential to unleash absolutely colossal eruptions. The last time it blew was around 70,000 years ago, but make no mistake—the volcano is far...
Could A Simple Lab Mistake Lead Scientists to Over-Estimate Microplastics?
While microplastics are a very real issue, one new study suggests that the numbers might not be quite as bad as we've feared.
Could A Simple Lab Mistake Lead Scientists to Over-Estimate Microplastics?
While microplastics are a very real issue, one new study suggests that the numbers might not be quite as bad as we've feared.
Don't mistake voter apathy for popular mandates
Alabama politics are dominated by hate, distraction and a lack of meaningful choices. It's hard to say the state as a whole is embracing that.
Poets&Quants’ World’s Best 40-Under-40 Graduate Business Professors Of 2026
As a professional club player in Spain, Raul Villamarin Rodriguez noticed that the biggest mistakes in a basketball game didn’t come from complicated plays or lack of training. The professors selecte...
Pete Crow-Armstrong's self criticism stood out after Cubs defeat
Pete Crow-Armstrong did not celebrate his late homer after the Cubs' loss, instead dissecting the mistakes he made against Davis Martin.
Too many mistakes cost Yankees in loss to Mets
At least one thing went wrong in every aspect of the game as the Yankees took a loss on Saturday.
Megaphone mistake: Angie Nixon reprimanded for interfering with redistricting vote
Chair Sam Garrison deemed the ruling a 'measured response.'
I retired early in Mexico at 50: Mistakes I made in first year
I'm an American who left my career in the US to retire early in Mexico at 50. After years of surprises and mistakes, I've built a nice life abroad.
California governor frontrunner Xavier Becerra's playbook: Never say you're sorry
While other California governor candidates apologize for past mistakes, Democratic frontrunner Xavier Becerra has a different strategy: dodge and dismiss.
Akon's top business mistake: Stop hustling backwards
Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi sits down with Musician and Entrepreneur Akon to chat about his new album, his successful investments, and his advice for entrepreneurs.
In war with Iran, China sees a familiar pattern of U.S. mistakes
President Trump arrives in Beijing this week for talks with a Chinese government that is confident as ever in its ascendance on the world stage.
Greens’ Zack Polanski admits failing to pay correct council tax on houseboat
Party says leader has ‘immediately taken steps’ to pay any tax owed after ‘unintentional mistake’
Maple Leafs warned about Alex Ovechkin-level NHL Draft mistake
The 2004 draft could be instructive here.
NBC Cancels Beloved Show & Fans Are Seriously Outraged
A recent NBC cancellation is sparking major backlash online, with fans calling the decision a huge mistake. See what show has fans so upset here.
How to limit your "I'm such an idiot" moments
In golf, the worst mistakes are the most avoidable kind.
The community-less, hyper-online citizen is a threat to democracy
Robert Putnam, a political scientist and sociologist, first came to widespread public attention with his turn-of-the-century tome, “Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community.” There has been frequent debate regarding whether Putnam, who taught for several decades at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, is a conservative or liberal. Occasionally mistaken for unquestioned right-winger […]
Celebrity chef reveals No. 1 mistake sabotaging your weight loss: 'Fuzzy math'
Rocco DiSpirito reveals the No. 1 mistake people make with healthy eating and weight loss, saying there is no one fix or cure that works for everyone.
Opposition forming against radiologist nominee for surgeon general
“Dr. Saphier would be a catastrophic mistake on messaging and communicating with MAHA at a time where the coalition is very fragile,” one opponent says.
Anthropic introduces "dreaming," a system that lets AI agents learn from their own mistakes
Anthropic has launched “dreaming” for AI agents, giving Claude new self-improving tools designed to boost enterprise automation, reliability, and scale.
Codie Sanchez lists the top mistakes people make when purchasing a business
Codie Sanchez, Contrarian Thinking Founder & CEO joins Yahoo Finance's Josh Lipton on Market Domination Overtime to discuss 4 questions you should ask before buying a business.
IKEA Is Making a Massive Customer Service Mistake, and It’s a Warning for Every Modern Business
Companies that hand off critical moments to third parties to save a few bucks are sacrificing future sales and brand equity.
Roma’s sporting director shortlist revealed
Roma is seeking clarity regarding the future. Gasperini was eloquent in his press conference: mistakes are forbidden in the pursuit of returning to the Champions League, and no more confusion in plann...
Microsoft Defender Misidentifies DigiCert Certificates As Malware, Triggering Global Disruptions
A significant technical malfunction in Microsoft Defender has triggered widespread alarm across the global cybersecurity community, after the platform mistakenly identified legitimate digital certificates issued by DigiCert as malicious software. The error, which surfaced in late April, led to false
Microsoft Defender Mistakenly Flags DigiCert Root Certificates as Malware
Microsoft Defender triggered widespread false positive alerts after a faulty security update caused it to flag two legitimate DigiCert root certificates as malicious, potentially disrupting SSL/TLS validation and code-signing operations across enterprise environments worldwide.
iPhone 18 Pro has broken a four-year curse, leaked image shows
A mistakenly published image reveals a much-awaited iPhone 18 Pro design change.
ONBOOKS | OPINION: Forensic science, uncertainty, and ‘classical mistakes’
New biography of Alan R. Moritz traces how forensic science learned to define what it can — and cannot — know.
Doctors Say This Cooking Mistake Could Be Harming Your Health
Doctors share how oversalting your food could increase your risk for heart disease, plus ways to cut back while still enjoying flavorful meals at home.
Second Chances In The Workforce
People certainly make mistakes — a lot of them through the course of a lifetime, and some that are serious enough to warrant jail time. However, for those mistakes — or crimes — that are less serious, it has been difficult for released and rehabilitated felons to re-enter a workforce that has already labeled and […]
Poll: Trump’s Iran war reaches Iraq- and Vietnam-era disapproval levels
A Post-ABC-Ipsos poll shows most Americans call the military action a mistake, even as Republicans remain strongly supportive. Many fear the conflict will lead to a recession.
3 aging mistakes top longevity doctors and scientists say to avoid
It's hard to tell which longevity trends actually work. Doctors and scientists shared what they wish people would stop doing in the hope of optimizing their health.
How to Build a Superteam That Keeps Getting Better
In periods of rapid change, the teams that outperform everyone else are not those with the best plans or the most talent but those that learn the fastest. Research across thousands of teams reveals a consistent pattern: High-performing teams—“superteams”—build cultures of continuous improvement. Their leaders encourage experimentation even when things are going well, make curiosity and intellectual humility contagious, surface problems early, stay close to the work, give feedback that supports learning rather than punishing mistakes, and invest in people’s growth even when it doesn’t pay off immediately. When work is tied to shared meaning and progress matters more than perfection, teams become more resilient, adaptable, and capable of sustained success—in business settings and beyond.
Darlington: Deshaun Watson deal is 'worst contract and transaction' in sports history
The "Get Up" crew discusses whether starting Deshaun Watson would be a mistake for the Browns.
Making AI chatbots more friendly leads to mistakes and support of conspiracy theories, study finds
Chatbots trained to respond warmly give poorer answers and worse health advice, researchers say
Why it’s a mistake for the Trumps to invest political capital in a fight against Kimmel
If the White House is looking at the landscape and concluding that a comedian is a serious problem in need of immediate attention, it’s mistaken.
Can LA Mayor Karen Bass survive her mistakes and climb the political ladder?
If her stumbles during and after the wildfires stop Mayor Karen Bass at one term, she'd be joining other LA mayors who went no further than City Hall.
Pirates Drop Finale; One Mistake Opens Floodgates, Brewers’ Harrison Dominates
Pittsburgh Pirates starter Carmen Mlodzinski was rolling through three innings but ran into trouble in the fourth after a costly […] The post Pirates Drop Finale; One Mistake Opens Floodgates, Brewers’ Harrison Dominates appeared first on Pittsburgh Baseball Now.
Patients taking weight-loss drugs often make 5 critical mistakes, doctor warns
Experts say GLP-1 drugs offer benefits beyond weight loss, but common mistakes like skipped labs and poor nutrition can undermine results or cause harm.
NFL Draft: By drafting Ty Simpson at No. 13, did the Rams make a huge mistake … or did they just secure their future?
Tim Cook admits his biggest mistake and proudest moment as Apple CEO
The outgoing Apple CEO shared his thoughts on his best moments and one major failure.
Tim Cook Calls Apple Maps Launch His 'First Really Big Mistake' as CEO
Outgoing Apple CEO Tim Cook has named the botched 2012 launch of Apple Maps as his "first really big mistake" in the role, according to a Bloomberg report covering the town hall meeting that was held Tuesday with his recently announced successor, John Ternus. The Maps app launched with mislabeled landmarks, faulty directions, and a user experience that fell well short of Google Maps at the time.
Apple Maps was Tim Cook's biggest mistake
Speaking to employees, outgoing CEO Tim Cook talked about his time leading Apple, citing both the successes he is most proud of, and admitting to the one main failure.
Tim Cook Regrets Maps Flub, Sees Apple Watch as His Proudest Work
Apple Inc. Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook, who plans to step down in a few months, cited the launch of Apple Maps on the iPhone in 2012 as his “first really big mistake” as the company’s boss.
I Snagged a $550 Business-Class Ticket to Italy. Then the Airline Found Out.
The Turkish Airlines deal was a mistake fare that the carrier can either honor or not. Mine was canceled.
Mistakes to avoid at state and national parks, from park ranger
After working as a park ranger at state and national parks for six years, I saw guests make common mistakes like straying from marked trails.
Shaky political science: using "simulated" elections over real-world elections
[Dear DSOS readers – this article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in early December, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting. We found that many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data, and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first three articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report, the second one analyzing a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report, and a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research]. In this fourth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we shine a spotlight on seven studies that were web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group (the ERRG is an ad hoc committee headed by New America’s Political Reform Program and joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Unite America Institute and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law). This research consortium has been led by Lee Drutman, senior fellow with New America’s Political Reform Program. These seven studies are simply not credible from any objective standard about how political “science” is supposed to illuminate our understanding of either ranked choice voting or politics in general. The feature that six of these seven studies have in common is that they all used surveys – artificial, simulated elections -- to attempt to say something cogent or interesting about ranked choice voting (RCV) elections. None of them used real world data from actual RCV elections – either the 1000+ elections in the US or the many thousands of elections from places like Australia, Ireland and elsewhere where RCV has been used for 100 years. While a few of these studies conclude with some mixed positives about RCV, our analysis here is content neutral. The idea that, with a political reform like RCV, you can ask respondents in a mock, artificial election to vote with that method, with only the barest of explanation about how RCV works or its likely impacts (i.e. no spoiler candidates, majority winners, voters liberated to pick their favorite candidates, coalition-building), and then ask them their thoughts/reactions about voting in that system, with fake candidates and no real campaigning, no real exposure to an actual election or actual candidates, rests on some very puzzling assumptions. The findings of these seven studies actually are contradicted by the findings from many other studies based on real-world RCV elections. These New America studies also failed to list the real-world RCV studies in their own citations, instead including those studies that reinforced their conclusions. The seven studies featured in this article were chosen because they form a cohesive cohort which precisely illustrates one of the main points of our research paper, namely that using surveys, i.e. artificial elections, or mathematical/theoretical models, instead of real-world data, is in fact “shaky political science.” Below are summaries of our analysis of five of the seven New America studies. You can read our complete analysis of all seven studies at our paper, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting.” Choosing to “Vote As Usual” by Andre Blais, Carolina Plescia, and Semra Sevi. New America. (Blais et al., 2021). This study, web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group, used two surveys in which respondents completed ballots for simulated elections using plurality, approval, RCV and point (Score) voting. In both cases the authors provided the respondents with only minimal explanation of each method. For example, the entire explanation for RCV was “For this vote, rank the candidates from your first to your last choice (you do not need to rank them all). This is called the ranked vote.” That’s it. The study did not provide any context or explanation to survey respondents about why she/he might want to rank multiple candidates. Participants were not even told that ballots would be tabulated using an “instant” runoff, not to mention any description of RCVs ability to eliminate the spoiler effect or liberate voters to rank their favorite candidates without fear of helping the “greater evil” candidate to win. That’s like taking an iPhone back in time to 1970 and asking someone if they like it better than their rotary phone without explaining how it works. Their first survey targeted states that held 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and used the real candidates’ names in the survey; the second survey used fictitious candidates. In other words, they surveyed respondents who had only ever participated in plurality elections, had no history or background with using RCV or any of the other methods, had no clue about its likely impacts, and did not communicate how the alternative methods would be counted, and then asked them: “How satisfied are you with using each system?” Predictably, the winner was plurality elections, the system used for president, Congress, gubernatorial and state legislative elections – in other words, the method they have been using, year after year, all their voting lives. With so little explanation of RCV and its impacts, this study is simply not credible in discovering anything useful about real-world RCV elections. It merely shows that a basic voter education campaign is needed when adopting a new election system. Additionally, the result contradicts many other post-election surveys following real RCV elections, asking opinions from voters who had just participated in a RCV election, that showed a great deal of satisfaction with RCV (see details on that in Studies 22-25 in our paper, as well as the four studies cited in the review for Study 28). Share Other studies on “satisfaction” and “understanding” make similar mistakes, in terms of basing their surveys on inadequate explanation to respondents and lack of education about context. How could any survey ever hope to measure accurately, in essence simulate a real-world election, without actual campaigning candidates, the media writing about those candidates, organizations endorsing candidates and voters being inundated with crucial information? More than anything, what these “studies” based on surveys show is that if you ask voters about something they don’t know very much about, and fail to adequately educate them, their responses will unsurprisingly reflect their confusion. Equally puzzling is that New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group, headed by political scientist Lee Drutman, found this to be a credible enough study that they not only published it but highlighted it in Drutman’s own discussion of research related to ranked choice voting. This pattern was repeated in study after study featured by New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group. For example in Ranked-Choice Voting and Political Expression: Voter Guides Narrow the Gap between Informed and Uninformed Citizens by Cheryl Boudreau, Jonathan Colner, and Scott MacKenzie, the researchers based their analysis on a survey which found that respondents who were asked to vote in a simulated RCV election, with minimal explanation of RCV or how it works, displayed less evidence of being informed about how to use RCV effectively, with the least informed voters ranking fewer candidates. As pointed out under the study above, in a real election voters are informed by a wide variety of methods, including public education by the election administration, by interested political groups, the media, and the candidates themselves who benefit from voters being aware of how to vote in the new system. In Support for Ranked-Choice Voting across Race and Partisanship by Joseph Anthony, David C. Kimball, Jack Santucci and Jamil Scott, the researchers used respondents from different parties and races voting in simulated plurality and RCV elections, who indicated their satisfaction with each voting method. Instead of using real world election results, the authors fell back on the easy, armchair and less reliable academic research methodology of making up mock elections. As with the other studies, little explanation was given of how RCV works or what its implications might be (electing majority winners or eliminating spoilers, for example). Unsurprisingly, this study found that respondents were not very satisfied with RCV. However, when the authors added an explanation that RCV has a tendency to elect more women and people of color, they found that this greater explanation increased the preference for RCV. The more voters were familiar with it, and the more they understood potential positive impacts – surprise! -- the more they were open to switching away from the status quo. Of note, the results from this study are thoroughly contradicted by a number of other studies whose data was obtained from real RCV elections with real voters. Those studies show a great deal of satisfaction with RCV. More “fake election” research An interesting wrinkle on this “research by fake elections” approach, which only served to illustrate how unreliable such “research” can become, was taken in Ranked-Choice Voting, Runoff, and Democracy: Insights from Maine and Other U.S. States by Joseph Cerrone and Cynthia McClintock_,_ also web-hosted and funded by New America’s ERRG. It gets high marks for creativity, but an eye-roll for thinking this could possibly add anything meaningful to our understanding of real world RCV elections. This study tried to determine whether RCV, plurality or two-round runoff elections provided greater voter satisfaction and acceptance of election results. To determine that, the authors conducted a survey asking if voters were satisfied with a fictional newspaper report of an election, with three different versions given to respondents – plurality, runoff and RCV, with variations of Republican/Democrat winners and variations of “come-from-behind” winners,” i.e. candidates not initially in first place but who win the “runoff.” Again, a minimal explanation of RCV or how it works was given, and the survey showed that respondents had the greatest unfamiliarity with RCV than the other methods. The unsurprising result? Respondents were much more satisfied with “come-from-behind” victories in a traditional two-round runoff election than in RCV, even though RCV is also a runoff system but with a single round of counting. Interestingly, the dissatisfaction with RCV disappeared for those who were more familiar with RCV. In fact, among those respondents who were “very familiar” with RCV, they were equally satisfied with RCV, runoff and plurality. Surprise, surprise. Again, what this study revealed, more than anything, is not only the inadequacy of the explanation for RCV given by the authors of this study, but the failure of the research format itself, thinking that such an artificial mock election could somehow simulate what actually happens in the real world in a real RCV election. Those four studies reviewed above are fitting examples of inadequate and shaky political “science.” Other studies reviewed in our paper from the New America/Electoral Reform Research Group cohort which also used mock elections included: Ranked-Choice Voting is an Acquired Taste by Joseph Anthony and David C. Kimball. New America. (Anthony et al., 2021). Ranked-Choice Voting is No Refuge for Extreme Candidates by Melissa Baker. New America. (Baker, 2021). Also included in this New America cohort is Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Racial Polarization? by Yuki Atsusaka and Theodore Landsman, which actually did use real-world election results data but applied an odd and unconventional methodology to the data which relied on shaky assumptions and non-real-world scenarios that were too divorced from reality. To determine levels of “racially polarized voting,” the researchers imagined “ethnic parties,” by which they mean political parties for each ethnic group, which was especially odd since the election data they were using came from nonpartisan RCV races. But then they made an even odder assumption, namely that since race and ethnic characteristics of studied voters were not available, the authors tried to infer that information based on who voters selected and the racial make-up of voters in each district. This amounted to little more than vague and ambiguous guesswork dressed up with a bunch of mathematical equations used to give it a veneer of scientific appearance. Indeed, it seemed to assume racial polarization in order to prove racial polarization. Based on this questionable methodology, the authors concluded that RCV doesn’t reduce racial polarization. But the premise of this study missed an obvious reality: since RCV incentivizes more candidates to run and can result in more diverse fields of candidates, one would expect more racially-polarized voting in voters’ top rankings, not less, because more voters would have someone on that ballot who represents their racial or ethnic identity and more freedom to vote for their real first choice. By encouraging more diverse candidates and eliminating the spoiler effect, RCV facilitates voting for a favorite candidate of your own race and then selecting a second choice with the best likelihood of winning. The real measure is what voters do with their additional rankings – do they consider other candidates and vote “for the best of the rest”? This study didn’t tell us anything useful about that. But readily available data shows this is common in real RCV elections, and candidates act on this knowledge by engaging with voters outside their racial group. So the authors of this study failed to consider or account for what actually happens in real-world elections, and their conclusions are tainted by this failure. New America has contributed a great deal over the past 2.5 decades to our understanding of many policy areas, including politics and political reform (full disclosure: Steven Hill, one of the authors of this article and of the “Shaky Political Science” research paper and series, is a former senior fellow and former director of New America’s political reform program, 2005-2010). So it was especially disappointing that New America funded and published such a large batch of dubious studies about ranked choice voting. The stated praiseworthy goal of its Electoral Reform Research Group was to inspire new academic research about ranked choice voting that would shed light and help the public better understand the impacts of RCV. Instead, the ERRG research did just the opposite. It produced dubious research that created more confusion and misinformation. In so doing, New America’s political reform program contributed to “shaky political science.” Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS, a reader-supported digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
Bill Nye the Science Guy Trashes Trump’s Typo-Riddled Plot
Nye warned Trump to step back before he makes “a huge mistake.”
Bills urged to roll the dice in NFL Draft
The Bills might be looking to fix their Keon Coleman mistake.
Family of 7 took a multigenerational trip to Paris
My family of 7 took a multigenerational trip to Paris. We made a few mistakes and realized that paying for convenience was almost always worth it.
Pope Leo’s target is bigger than Trump. He’s rebuking the ‘MAGA Jesus’
If you think the clash between Pope Leo XIV and President Donald Trump is just a war of words that will pass when the news cycle moves on, you are most likely mistaken.
This May Be Why Eric Swalwell Thought He Could Get Away With It
Party leaders treated him like a man who could do no wrong. That was ... a mistake.
Diamondbacks capitalize on Blue Jay mistakes, win series opener
D-Backs capitalized on Blue Jay mistakes and walked out victors in their return home.
5 mistakes to avoid on your first long-distance Amtrak ride
I took the 20-hour Amtrak route between Chicago and New York. These five mistakes kept me from enjoying it more.