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Samsung hints the Galaxy Ring 2 could do something no Galaxy wearable has done before
A senior Samsung executive has revealed that the next-generation Galaxy Ring will bring a promising compatibility upgrade.
Simon Says... Buy This OpenAI Mechanical Keyboard Thingy
It's a collaboration between OpenAI and Work Louder. It does something or other with Codex.
Woman says popular oil change business left her engine in the backseat
“What they pulled out of my car looks like something from a sci-fi movie.”
OpenClaw app for Android puts AI agents in your pocket and… looks like that
AI agents are the latest “next big thing” for AI, but OpenClaw has been working at the idea for a...
Netflix and Superheroes Are Having a Rough Stretch on Streaming....
(Welcome to my weekly streaming ratings report, the single best guide to what’s popular in streaming TV and what isn’t. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. If you were forwarded this email, please subscribe to get these insights each week.) I have a quick prediction before we start today’s article: You might see this data in future news articles. Not my specific charts or analysis, but the core trend I’ve been monitoring—Netflix is having a lackluster Q2—will become inescapable. Often, folks want to know “What does the data say?” Well, that’s what it says. I haven’t seen this analysis hit the trades really yet, but I have a feeling some other outlets are going to start making this case soon. Remember, you read it here first. You probably have read about the problems facing superhero films at the box office this weekend. Well, this week, I explore whether superheroes are dying on TV as well! And the data says: definitely maybe! We have a lot to cover in today’s Streaming Ratings Report, which covers the two weeks of 18-May and 25-May. Today, I’m just looking at TV, like Netflix’s disappointing Q2, superhero shows underwhelming, a few TV shows dropping off the charts, The Pitt finally ending its epic run on the viewership charts (and whether “view counts” change its status as one of the biggest shows of all time), all the flops, bombs and misses, and a whole lot more. Tomorrow, I’ve got a great rundown of the film side of things. Let’s dive right in! (Reminder: The streaming ratings report focuses on the U.S. market and compiles data from Nielsen’s weekly top ten viewership ranks, Luminate’s Top Ten Data, Showlabs, TV Time trend data, Samba TV household viewership, company datecdotes, Netflix hours viewed data, Google Trends, and IMDb to determine the most popular content. While most data points are current, Nielsen’s data covers the weeks of May 18th to May 31st, 2026. You can find a link to my terminology here.) Subscribe Television - Netflix’s Q2 Slump Continues Having analyzed streaming ratings for going on half a decade, I have learned to trust my gut, but I’m always relieved when I can find actual data to back it up. For example, after a string of very popular shows like Stranger Things, Bridgerton, The Lincoln Lawyer and The Night Agent came out, week after week, in January and February, my gut wondered if Netflix had enough new and returning TV shows to sustain them throughout the year. Since then, Netflix’s post-March slate of shows has not impressed me. This week seemed to feature a potential new hit, but then, like a classic Duffer Bros. TV show, there was a twist. I speak of The Boroughs, Netflix’s latest (and last) Duffer Bros. produced show. The pitch is “Stranger Things with older actors”. And it topped the Nielsen charts: With just two weeks of viewership, The Boroughs would have been a top 25 debut show last year: But here’s the twist: Netflix has already cancelled The Boroughs! What happened? Likely a few things. First, the show didn’t do as well globally as it did in the US. As What’s on Netflix showed, it lagged behind several other shows that got cancelled. Second, its completion rate was likely low; after an initial burst of interest, it quickly dropped off on the Samba TV and Luminate charts. Third, the Duffer Bros. left Netflix for Paramount, and that may have factored into Netflix’s decision here. (Though I tend to believe that if a show is doing well, Netflix would have kept greenlighting seasons.) Still, just because I can explain why Netflix may have cancelled this show doesn’t mean I’m justifying it. In particular, as I’ve noted before, Netflix is losing a lot of their bigger shows as they reach their natural ends, and they need to replace those shows. This show had the hallmarks of a big new genre show, and it’s their biggest hit of the last few months (in the US at least), but now it’s done. Netflix’s other show this week—The Four Seasons, the second season of the “hit” show from last year—definitely disappointed. Its sophomore season had about half the viewership of the first, only 12.7 million hours. It also only had a two week run on Samba TV, and its numbers were all down on Luminate too. In other words, even with two successes, the Q2 slump for Netflix looks real: I could add to the list of disappointments: Both Lord of the Files and Man on Fire had short runs on the Nielsen charts. Running Point’s sophomore season also opened to about half its viewership, similar to The Four Seasons. A Good Girl’s Guide to Murder’s second season—see below—didn’t even make any of the three viewership charts I track, unlike the first season. Netflix is absolutely having a dismal second three months of 2026. If this Nielsen data is any indication, and I think it is, I think this will show up in Netflix’s engagement report, and maybe even their financial outcomes. And the rest of June doesn’t look much better. We have two hit shows coming back—Sweet Magnolias, one of their quietest big shows, and Avatar: The Last Airbender, a big hit for them in 2024—but the other big swings are limited series crime thrillers i.e. no future season potential. Like I said above, sometimes when I uncover a juicy nugget like this, other outlets end up writing very similar articles mimicking the data without credit. We’ll see if that happens this time! Share Television - The State of Superhero Shows on Streaming When I first heard the pitch for Spider-Noir—a Sony TV show on Prime Video that binge-released eight episodes first on MGM+ then on Prime Video two days later—I had my doubts. It’s a live-action Spider-Man show set in the 1930s, starring Nicholas Cage, based on a cameo of a character in Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. No, seriously, that’s the pitch. That could either go terrifically well or horribly wrong. Great because, Spider-Man. He’s the biggest superhero we have. I’ve seen tracking numbers that put the new _Spider-Man: Brand New Da_y as the blockbuster of the year and initial pre-sales back that up. And yet this Spider-Noir pitch feels very esoteric. (Also, the eight-episode binge release feels very “Amazon copying Netflix” again.) So what’s the data say? And what does this say about the future of superhero shows?
UNC sports give you the chance to be a part of something bigger
"The more I thought about it, the more I realized how deeply sports are woven into the culture of this university. Being a UNC student means inheriting a lifetime of 'we get to’s' through sports."
Warriors want LeBron and AD + the latest on Jaylen Brown + Kawhi Leonard + everything happening around the NBA with Dave DuFour
The Most Important Business Lesson From Cannes Had Nothing to Do With Advertising
The world's biggest advertising festival just made the case that creative thinking belongs in the boardroom, not just the campaign brief.
Evidence points to potential new LCD screen for Nintendo Switch 2
The Nintendo Switch 2 screen could be getting a revision, based on the latest evidence. On a Chinese resale site, a listing recently appeared for a a new model of the system’s LCD panel. Sharp would apparently behind the updated screen. The current Nintendo Switch 2 features a panel from Innolux. This new screen has a different circuit, connector, and...
Supreme Court won't revive Alan Dershowitz's $300 million suit against CNN
Dershowitz had urged the court to reconsider New York Times Co. v. Sullivan. The landmark First Amendment case that made it harder for public figures to win libel lawsuits because it requires proof that an outlet knowingly published something false, or showed a reckless disregard for the truth.
Hoopaholic’s Gazette: DM, PK, NCAA, WC & BS
So be true to your school now/ Just like you would to your girl (or guy) OK, maybe the wisdom of Brian Wilson doesn’t have much if anything to do with today’s entry. But I did hear it on the radio today, and the Bard of 60s teen culture was all that and fostered us […]
Students immersed in marine science during camp
MOREHEAD CITY — From microscopic sea life to majestic whales, county middle and high school students are spending June and July learning about everything ocean related during innovative marine science
Gone Fishin’ With Ben Simmons
It’s been a helluva few years for the NBA All-Star. Now, from the deck of his boat off the coast of Miami, he’s got some things he’d like to say.
Comcast Eyes Spinoff of NBCUniversal From Its Core Cable Business
All things being equal, the Comcast-NBCU marriage of the distribution and content assets will have been relatively short-lived.
The Latest: Trump says Iran wants a meeting. Tehran says nothing's scheduled
President Donald Trump says Iran requested a meeting that would happen Tuesday in Qatar, but Tehran says nothing's scheduled.
For Nancy Pelosi, good-bye Congress. Hello, Pelosi Democracy Institute
The first female speaker of the House will be co-teaching a course on Congress at UC Berkeley's new institute, among other things.
GLP-1s 101: What the science says about weight loss, side effects, safety
We asked Stanford Medicine experts to break down everything you need to know about the drugs known as GLP-1s, semaglutide, Ozempic, Wegovy, Zepbound and many more.
Think You Should Wait Before Drinking Your First Cup of Coffee? Science Says There's No Need (or Benefit)
Research shows when you drink your first cup of coffee has no impact on afternoon energy levels. Or hydration. Or anything, aside from how you like to start your day.
UK software sales chart for the week ending June 27, 2026 - Star Fox tops the charts, outperforms Star Fox Zero and Star Fox 64 3D
The latest UK software sales chart for the week ending June 27, 2026 is now available. Star Fox was the major release of the week, and it seems to have done pretty well. For one thing, it took the top spot. We’re also hearing that the Nintendo Switch 2 game sold almost double what Star Fox Zero did during its...
Wendy Schmidt: Three centuries of science is something to celebrate
George Washington Died Not Knowing Dinosaurs Existed. Three Centuries Later, Science Has Never Needed More Defense.
Wendy Schmidt: Three centuries of science is something to celebrate
George Washington Died Not Knowing Dinosaurs Existed. Three Centuries Later, Science Has Never Needed More Defense.
Something Is Very Wrong with Modern Longevity Science
A new book argues that many of the world’s oldest people aren’t so old after all.
Nintendo Switch eShop latest sales: lowest prices ever for TMNT: Shredder's Revenge, Tomb Raider 4-6, Witcher 3, more
A bunch of new sales are up and running on the North American Nintendo Switch eShop. These include the lowest prices ever for Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Shredder’s Revenge, Tomb Raider 4-6 Remastered, The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt, and more. Here’s the full roundup: – .hack//G.U. Last Recode – $9.99 (was $49.99) – A Boy and His Blob – $6.74...
Orlando Magic Have Something to Prove After Latest Power Rankings
New head coach Sean Sweeney faces immense pressure to transform Orlando's talented core into postseason contenders and silence doubters following a mediocre mid-pack ranking and trade rumors.
Being broke costs you 13 IQ points, according to science. Here's the number that changes everything.
CreditNinja reports that saving your first $10,000 unlocks financial stability, improving decision-making and reducing stress, ultimately boosting cognitive function.
Philippe Stern, Heir to the Patek Philippe Watch Brand, Dies at 88
In an era of electronic timepieces, he marketed $40,000 handmade watches as status symbols, breathing new life into a struggling industry.
Lux and Samira announced for 2XKO
After the finals for 2XKO at Evo 2026 today, the developers decided to treat us to something special — namely a full reveal of the remaining characters for the game's first season.It was shown that Lux, the Lady of ...
World Cup Roundup: Everything To Know About Canada's Historic Win
Here is everything you might have missed from the first day of the 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout stage:
Efzimfotase alfa demonstrated improvements in bone health in treatment-naïve pediatric patients with hypophosphatasia achieving median difference of 1.67 vs placebo in RGI-C Score at week 25 in MULBERRY Phase III trial
Positive results from the MULBERRY Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa (ALXN1850), an investigational enzyme replacement therapy, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health in children (2 to
AI As Conscious As That Toy Bird Is Thirsty
OpenAI and the like are using our fantasies about technology to bilk investors, if we want to protect the public we need to establish the difference consciousness and something mimicking it
Scratching bug bites feels good – but science says don’t do it
You’ve likely heard it since childhood: Don’t scratch that bug bite or rash, you’ll make it worse. But why would something that feels so good be bad?
I Just Realized Why 'Sweet Magnolias' Star JoAnna Garcia Swisher Looks So Familiar (and It Has Nothing to Do with 'Reba')
If 'Sweet Magnolias' JoAnna Garcia Swisher has you doing a double-take, you're not alone. Here’s where you’ve likely seen the actress before.
New Captain Jack Sparrow Entertainment Coming to 2026 Mickey's Not So Scary Halloween Party
Halfway to the Holidays is over, which can only mean one thing: Halloween is almost here at Walt Disney World!!! Don't roll your eyes or laugh. This isn't a joke. At least, not a funny
Famitsu review scores - June 28, 2026 - Star Fox for Nintendo Switch 2 and more
The latest Famitsu review scores for the week of June 28, 2026 are as follows: Star Fox – 8/9/9/8 The Last Salvage Squad – 8/7/8/7 Mousebusters – 7/8/8/6 Note that for each review, four editors gave out scores. The final total in the Famitsu review is there for out of a total of 40 points. For previous Famitsu scores, check...
AWS CEO says replacing young employees with AI is ‘one of the dumbest ideas’—and bad for business: ‘At some point the whole thing explodes on itself’
Amazon laid off 14,000 employees this fall, but CEO Andy Jassy denied the reductions were related to AI.
Bullseye! Enormous 'bow and arrow' galaxy is unlike anything radio astronomers have ever seen — Space photo of the week
Astronomers and citizen scientists have discovered RAD-BAARG, a radio galaxy with a striking bow-and-arrow shape, offering a rare direct view of a galaxy falling into the environment of a galaxy cluster.
Four things to know from Neshoba County Fair political speaking
Here are some of the highlights from the political speeches at the Neshoba County Fair and developments Mississippians can expect in the coming months.
Why does metal stick together in space?
If you push two metal plates together on Earth, nothing happens. In space, they can fuse into one. Here's why.
Our picks for the best things to do in Cincinnati this week, June 29-July 5
If you're wanting to see some fireworks this week, we've got you covered. Find an event in your community to celebrate Independence Day.
2026 World Cup Group J: Wild Austria-Algeria tie locks Iran out of knockout rounds
Here's how everything shook out in Group J of the World Cup.
Padres outmatched by Dodgers with nine run inning
SAN DIEGO - Just when things started to look like the San Diego Padres found a resurgence after winning four in-a-row against two of the best teams in league, they run into a mack truck-like force called the Los Angeles Dodgers.
You always hurt the ones you love
“Jackass” opened the door for a new generation of cable network prank shows like “Punk’d” and “Impractical Jokers.” But the shows that followed seemed more interested in doing things to
Don Lemon, DL Hughley bring 'Anything Goes' tour to Columbus this fall
Emmy Award-winning journalist Don Lemon and renowned comedian DL Hughley will visit Columbus as part of their extended tour this fall. The comedy-political commentary duo are set to perform at Mershon...
Gunnar gives back: O's shortstop surprises local kid with specialized cleats
BALTIMORE -- The story of 11-year-old Declan Lefevre’s youth baseball career is inspirational. When Declan was about 4 years old, a doctor noticed his legs were different lengths. And it wasn’t something he would grow out of, either, which is something his parents -- father Jeff Lefevre and mother Nichole
ABC7 reporter goes viral after declaring she doesn’t want to know anything about Bosnia
An ABC7 Los Angeles reporter has gone viral ahead of the United States’ World Cup round of 32 matchup with Bosnia and Herzegovina next Wednesday in Santa Clara, and not for the right reasons Reporter Abigail Velez, wrapping a live shot from Long Beach following the UMSNT’s group-stage loss to Türkiye, announced proudly that she…
Nintendo issues June 2026 backwards compatibility fixes for Switch games on Switch 2, full list
Another set of backwards compatibility fixes for Nintendo Switch games on Switch 2 are now available. There aren’t as many heavy hitters this time around, but it’s still a solid batch. Shovel Knight: Treasure Trove is the biggest name out of the bunch – previously, Nintendo said that players may encounter audio issues in some areas. The full list of...
Jalen Brunson gets a standing ovation at Mariska Hargitay's play after announcing his 'SVU' dream
Jalen Brunson received a standing ovation at Mariska Hargitay's Broadway play 'Every Brilliant Thing.' The New York Knicks star previously stated his desire to guest star on 'Law & Order: SVU.'
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it's a bad idea
You've likely heard it since childhood: Don't scratch that bug bite or rash, you'll make it worse. But why would something that feels so good be bad?
Everything we know about Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s wedding
NEW YORK — There are more people ostensibly invited to celebrate the love story of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce than there are tidbits of publicly available information about the
HISTORY IN THE MAKING: A RECORD-BREAKING OPENING DAY AT THE PAN AMERICAN ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP MEDELLÍN 2026
The Pan American Athletics Championship delivered everything the Americas had been waiting […]
Amazon Prime Day Is Over, but Our Editors Found 131+ Best Deals Still Live
We don’t know how long these discounts will last, so if something catches your eye, add to cart and checkout ASAP.
The fittest founder in the room got cancer. Here's how he used AI to fight back.
When confronted with cancer, Connor Christou fed everything tied tied to his regime — blood results, scan data, wearable output, journal entries — into Claude.
Maliq Brown Arrives In San Antonio & Finds Something Familiar
Brown is in a great situation, but it should also seem familiar
Mountain lions changed everything in this tiny California preserve
A surprising ecological makeover unfolded when mountain lions began frequenting a small preserve south of San Francisco. Deer activity dropped, plants recovered, and shifts among predators like coyotes, bobcats, and foxes followed. The study shows that powerful “trophic cascades” aren’t limited to remote wilderness—they can happen in small, suburban preserves too.
Yellowstone’s supervolcano may be fueled by something unexpected
Scientists have uncovered a new explanation for what powers Yellowstone and other supervolcanoes. Instead of a deep plume rising from near Earth’s core, a broad “mantle wind” may push hot rock beneath Yellowstone, generating magma closer to the surface. This process helps create a massive underground magma network and may explain how supervolcanoes remain active for long periods.
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it's a bad idea
You scratched that bug bite and now it's a big itchier bump. Some science explains why scratching really can make things worse, even if you don't break the skin. University of Pittsburgh researchers put tiny “cones of shame” onto mice to help unravel what happens on a cellular level when an itch ...
Prediction market Kalshi sues Illinois over its push to regulate sports bets
Prediction market Kalshi — which offers trades on everything from the World Cup top goalscorers to the winners of the reality show Love Island and the 2028 Democratic primary — sued Illinois on Tuesday over its latest push to regulate sports bets on the platform.
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it’s a bad idea
WASHINGTON (AP) — You’ve likely heard it since childhood: Don’t scratch that bug bite or rash, you’ll make it worse. But why would something that feels so good be bad? A lot of things can cause itc…
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it's a bad idea
You scratched that bug bite and now it's a big itchier bump. Some science explains why scratching really can make things worse, even if you don't break the skin. University
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it's a bad idea
You’ve likely heard it since childhood: Don’t scratch that bug bite or rash, you’ll make it worse. A lot of things can cause itchiness, sometimes serious diseases. Whatever the cause, doctors have l...
Illinois 250: What we’ve invented, innovated, created and manufactured
Illinois builds things. We invent and innovate, too — everything from the Pullman car to plastic party cups.
Stenberg Excited To Join Sharks, Believes He’s NHL-Ready
Ivar Stenberg says he is ready to be in the NHL next season. After being drafted No. 2 overall by the San Jose Sharks, he becomes yet another another big-name, highly-skilled player in their under-23 group. “They have something really good going on, so super happy to join a special group,” Stenberg said. The 5-foot-11 […] The post Stenberg Excited To Join Sharks, Believes He’s NHL-Ready appeared first on San Jose Hockey Now.
"People think science is about the truth. It's not" – Why everything we know about the Universe could be mere guesswork | BBC Sky at Night Magazine
Are space science, cosmology and astronomy just guesswork? Considering the purpose of science and how we study the Universe.
Melissa Etheridge: 'We're going to rock your toes off'
Melissa Etheridge is a survivor. For starters, try coming out publicly as a lesbian in January 1992 at a time when entertainers didn’t do that kind of thing; surviving breast
Dolphins Training Camp Primer: Quarterbacks
A look at the Miami Dolphins' quarterbacks and where things may be headed during the 2026 season.
‘We don’t see anything that was a problem.’ GOP candidate Steve Hilton reacts to Trump’s claims of election fraud in CA
His Fortune’s From the Trash Business. His Basquiats Are Priceless.
In the last few years, waste-management billionaire Patrick Dovigi has become one of the biggest art collectors on the scene. But he’s still under the radar—maybe the shots fired on his home have something to do with that.
iPhone 18: Everything We Know About Apple's Biggest Updates
Rumors about Apple's next flagship phones point to a new foldable, a variable-aperture camera, improved battery life and, yes, higher prices.
The 2x playback button on YouTube and TikTok is peak brainrot
My brain is so rotted from scrolling I can't watch anything on normal speeds.
Value of Things: A look at the hot seat
Is Nick Caserio on the hot seat if the offensive line fails again
SEGA / Atlus hosting new Nintendo Switch 2 and Switch sale with Sonic Origins Plus, Unicorn Overlord, and more at new low prices
Fans of SEGA and Atlus can save big on Switch 2 and Switch games as part of new sale on the Nintendo eShop. Over thirty titles are included here with some familiar names in the lineup. We’ll mention that a number of games are at new low prices here such as the individual Etrian Odyssey games, Sonic Origins Plus, Unicorn...
Samsung Will Start Charging For SmartThings API Access
Samsung will start charging for SmartThings API access.
Last Chance To Fix Destiny 2 Delayed After Bungie Lays Off Devs
Bungie is running out of chances to set things right in its sci-fi MMO before it's left behind for good
Health experts keep Summerfest attendees healthy
On top of staying hydrated and wearing sunscreen, Aurora Health Care encourages wearing comfortable shoes and clothing.
Nintendo Switch 2 ends first full year in the U.S. at nearly 6 million units sold, second fastest-selling video game system
Following the latest U.S. sales report from Circana, we have information about the first full-year sales of Nintendo Switch 2. The console ended its first twelve months at 5.9 million units sold. According to Circana, it’s the second fastest-selling video game system in the U.S. with tracked history dating back to 1995. The only other platform to outdo it was...
Strength Training Could Be One of the Best Things You Do for Your Brain
A growing body of research suggests strength training can help preserve cognition and improve brain health as you age. Experts explain the best way to work strength training into your routine.
'A heavy impact:' Schwebel's closure leaves a sense of community loss
It’s the small things that residents across the region will remember when Schwebel’s closes its doors at summer’s end. Everything from...
Rain stopped play? Biggest worry now in British sport is extreme heat
Climate crisis is on show every day when sportspeople do their thing and the rest of us sweat on the sofa
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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