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STEM SHOWCASE AT YSU: Science concepts spawn real-world creations
YOUNGSTOWN — During her childhood, Meghan Crump enjoyed certain fast movements, though years later, her interest shifted to things that move quickly but are far smaller than her. “I was a very creative person in high school. I was a student who loved school,” Crump, a Youngstown State University senior and 2022 Austintown Fitch High […]
Modder Discovers Abandoned Dark Souls II Sewer Level
The infamous Gutter appears to have been far more ambitious in an earlier development phase
In Milan, Europe's far right gathers amid shifting era and enduring identity politics
Just days after Viktor Orban's defeat in Hungary, Matteo Salvini, Italy's deputy prime minister, hosted a far-right rally under the banner 'Without Fear: In Europe We Are Masters in Our Own House.'
The fight against ‘medical misogyny’ is far from over
Letter: Ethnicity, culture and access continue to shape who is believed, how quickly, and with what outcome, says Vanessa Haye
The Age of Overt Political Warfare
Great powers once meddled in other country’s elections secretly. Now they are happy for everyone to know.
Cardi B says near-canceled Atlanta show is her ‘last time’ at State Farm Arena
The rapper threatened not to perform and took jabs at Atlanta Police during the final night of her "Little Miss Drama Tour."
Gas prices won’t fall quickly. Here are ways to pay less at the pump right now
Although tensions are easing in the Middle East — at least for now — US gas prices will remain far above pre-war levels for weeks, if not months.
Scientists develop dirt-powered fuel cell that could replace batteries
Scientists have developed a fuel cell that uses microbes in soil to produce electricity. The device can power underground sensors for tasks like monitoring moisture or detecting touch, without needing batteries or solar panels. It works in both dry and wet conditions and even lasts longer than similar technologies. This could pave the way for sustainable, low-maintenance sensors in farming and environmental monitoring.
Xbox Game Pass Announces 3 Day One Games All Coming the Same Day
Xbox Game Pass has announced three day one games all coming on the same day, the biggest dump of day one games so far this year.
Curing U.S. Health Care, Part I
In 2008, much to their own surprise, leading Democrats unified around a program of major health care reform. Policy wonks had spent years developing the concepts behind what eventually became Obamacare; big Democratic victories in the 2006 midterms and the prospect of controlling both Congress and the presidency made it possible to imagine turning those ideas into reality. During the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama advocated similar plans, based on those ideas, for expanding insurance coverage. And it happened! The Affordable Care Act was enacted in 2010. When it was fully implemented in 2014, millions of Americans got health insurance: Impressive as the raw numbers are, they don’t tell the whole story. Before the ACA, even upper-middle-class Americans often found it impossible to get health insurance if they had pre-existing medical conditions. Many Americans were trapped in jobs they wanted to leave but couldn’t for fear of losing their employment-based coverage. Meanwhile, dire predictions from the usual suspects about runaway costs proved wrong. In fact, overall U.S. medical spending has grown much more slowly since the ACA was enacted than before. But the U.S., alone among advanced nations, still falls far short of providing universal health care. As you can see from the chart above, 8 percent of the population was still uninsured in 2024, a number that is set to rise over the next two years as a result of Republican policies. True, many of the uninsured in 2024 were undocumented immigrants, who we don’t try to cover. But there are still a lot of uninsured. Moreover, a significant number of Americans who have health insurance are in fact underinsured. As a result, they are at risk of incurring devastating healthcare costs and are sometimes forced to forgo needed care. This number is set to rise sharply in the next two years as a result of Republican policies adopted under Donald Trump. And not only is the U.S. unique among advanced countries in its under-provision of health care coverage, it also incurs by far the world’s highest healthcare costs per capita. So now may well be a good time to get behind a new push for major health reform — an effort, if you like, to finish the job begun under Obama. Today’s primer is devoted to the economics of health reform. During his failed effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act, Donald Trump famously complained, “Nobody knew healthcare could be so complicated.” Actually, we did know — and it’s not that complicated. Health economists understand the principles very well. And because health policy varies greatly among advanced nations, we know a lot about what works and what doesn’t. This will be the first in a series about health reform. Beyond the paywall I’ll address the following: 1. Why markets can’t be trusted to deliver healthcare 2. Routes to universal healthcare 3. What works? In a follow-up post I’ll discuss the pros and cons of different approaches, and possible paths forward for the United States.
For U.S. medical researchers, shrinking labs and bare budgets are the new reality
The Trump administration has slashed the number of grants from the National Institutes of Health, with far fewer focused on women, cancer and mental health.
For U.S. medical researchers, shrinking labs and bare budgets are the new reality
The Trump administration has slashed the number of grants from the National Institutes of Health, with far fewer focused on women, cancer and mental health.
Leeds 3-0 Wolves: What Farke and Justin said
Leeds United's victory this afternoon takes them to 39 points after 33 Premier League matches played. No team has ever gone on to be relegated from the Premier League after amassing 39+ points at this stage of a 38-game Premier League campaign.
Farewell to Prof. Michael Rabin, godfather of Israeli computer science
A pioneer of modern computing, Rabin shaped algorithms, cryptography and AI foundations, mentored generations and remains the only Israeli to win the Turing Award, the field’s highest honor, as computer science reshaped everyday life
Two more Reform local election candidates accused of offensive posts
Labour calls on Nigel Farage to sack candidates and says his party’s checks ‘clearly not fit for purpose’
Letters to Sports: Clippers were oh so close, yet so far
Readers of the Los Angeles Times Sports section give their thoughts on the Clippers season ending, the Dodgers, Angels, Shohei Ohtani and Anze Kopitar.
Chico releases new ordered post-patch tier list for Street Fighter 6
Alex and the mid-season balance patch for Street Fighter 6 were released not too long ago. Though every character received adjustments, the meta hasn't seen that much of a dramatic shift thus far.Regardless, Chico was recently inspired to ...
What caffeine does to ants could change pest control
Caffeine doesn’t just perk up humans—it can sharpen ants’ minds too. Invasive Argentine ants given caffeinated sugar learned to find food much more efficiently, taking straighter paths and reducing travel time by up to 38%. They weren’t faster, just more focused, indicating improved learning. This unexpected effect could make pest control baits far more effective.
How corporate welfare for hospitals is raising health care costs
A drug discount program has fueled consolidation and incentivized prescribing more expensive medications.
Norwegian politicians hope Epstein files inquiry will restore faith in democracy
Disgraced financier’s links to politicians and civil servants as far back as 30 years ago to be examined
Savannah Early College students make memories on prom night
Savannah Early College students celebrated their 2026 High School prom at Red Gate Farms.
Stocks are soaring. But the Iran war’s economic damage is far from over.
The surge in optimism contrasts starkly with continued energy supply challenges that threaten long-lasting economic harm — and a market reckoning.
Woman killed, three injured after disturbance at far North Dallas business, police say
Amherst Sustainability Festival: A Day of Family Fun, Education, and Entertainment
Mark your calendars for the 14th Annual Amherst Sustainability Festival, taking place on Saturday, April 25 from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. on the Amherst Town Common. Coinciding with the regularly scheduled Amherst Farmer’s Market, this free and family friendly event brings together local farmers, environmental vendors, advocacy groups, live entertainment, hands-on demonstrations, sustainable crafts, and much more. “The Amherst Sustainability Festival has become a beloved event
From Endless Frontier to Enemy of the People: The Assault on Public Science
A review of Michael E. Mann & Peter J. Hotez, “Science Under Siege: How to Fight the Five Most Powerful Forces That Threaten Our World” (Public Affairs, 2025)
The Most Secret Items In ‘Crimson Desert’ Have Just Been Found
Crimson Desert has many secret items, but these may be the hardest to find so far. Here's how to get them.
The release date for Ubisoft's Assassin's Creed: Black Flag remake, Resynced, seems to have leaked, and it's reportedly not very far away
The release date for the upcoming Assassin's Creed: Black Flag remake seems to have leaked, and the game is reportedly setting sail this summer.
Cyprus: Global politics felt at Candidates chess tournaments
The FIDE Candidates tournaments are two of the most important events in the chess calendar. This year, they took place in Cyprus. But tension relating to Russia and the war in the Middle East was never too far away.
Centrepoint to cut ties with Sharon Osbourne after she backs Tommy Robinson rally
Homelessness charity distances itself after Osbourne says she plans to attend far-right ‘unite the kingdom’ march
Nalivka: New University of Idaho Meat Science and Innovation Center Will Play Vital Role in Meat Industry
The state-of-the-art facility marks a new era for Idaho’s 100% job-placement meat science program, bridging the gap between academic research and industry needs.
NSWCPD Applies AI and Machine Learning to Predictive Machinery Health
In a soundproof chamber at the Naval Surface Warfare Center, Philadelphia Division (NSWCPD), a steel-gray air compressor hums as engineers test an experimental machine learning model designed to detect early signs of failure through vibration analysis. The effort, part of NSWCPD’s growing portfolio of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) projects, shows early promise for potential future Navy use.
How are Giants fans feeling about the season thus far?
The Giants are back on the road this weekend. So let’s check in with Giants fans to see how they’re feeling about the season thus far.
Cosm Breaks Ground on Immersive Entertainment Venue in Downtown Cleveland
CLEVELAND — Cosm, along with Bedrock and Rock Entertainment Group, have broken ground on a new entertainment venue located at the intersection of East 4th Street, Prospect Avenue and Huron Road in downtown Cleveland. Dubbed Cosm Cleveland, the venue will sit directly across from Rocket Arena (formerly Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse), home of the NBA’s Cleveland Cavaliers and AHL’s Cleveland Monsters. The two professional sports franchises are owned by Dan Gilbert, founder of Rocket Mortgage, Bedrock and Rock Entertainment Group. Spanning approximately 64,000 square feet and rising three stories, Cosm Cleveland will comprise two programmatic elements: The Dome and The Hall. Through Cosm’s proprietary technology called Shared Reality, the venue will merge a stadium-like atmosphere with state-of-the-art visuals in a communal setting. Rossetti Architects designed Cosm Cleveland, and Bedrock is leading the development. The venue, which will anchor Bedrock’s Rock Block mixed-use development, is slated to open in 2027. “This is a major milestone for our downtown Gateway District, and the arrival of Cosm is a testament to our community’s spirit and resilience,” says Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb. “This incredible venue will enhance our city’s reputation as a hub for sports and entertainment, drawing visitors from near and far to experience a…
The stunning underwater world that’s at risk as the Iran war drags on
Not far from the vessels stuck in the Persian Gulf is a one-of-a-kind marine ecosystem that’s home to dolphins, sea turtles and coral. How do oil slicks affect them?
Hotline for Pennsylvania farmers sees major drop in calls, texts amid mental health crisis
This story was produced by the State College regional bureau of Spotlight PA, an independent, nonpartisan newsroom dedicated to investigative and public-service...
Global Leftist Leaders Gather in Spain to Counter Far-Right Surge
The meetings in Spain among leftist leaders reflect concerns among left-wing leaders following the rise of far-right parties in recent years.
Sunweb ends sale of excursions involving wildlife entertainment
Sunweb Group will stop selling excursions with wild animals used for entertainment, following new animal welfare guidelines.
Battlefield 6 2026 Roadmap Confirmed
Bigger maps and naval warfare are just two of the additions coming to Battlefield 6 in 2026, as its developers have promised to finally, directly address community feedback with a series of major updates.
Meta blames RAM shortage for $100 Quest 3 price hike
Starting April 19th, Meta’s Quest headsets will be more expensive.
How the ABS experiment has worked so far in the majors: Which teams, players and umpires have fared the best
MLB has seen more than 1,000 ABS challenges since Opening Day
The Case for Pull Funding at the National Institutes of Health
The White House’s fiscal year 2027 budget proposal, released earlier this month, would cut the National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding by ~$5 billion. This is a meaningful cut, though far smaller than the roughly $18 billion reduction proposed for 2026, which Congress ultimately rejected in favor of a modest increase. Whether Congress holds the line again remains uncertain.
Despite late-night maneuvering, agriculture bond fails enactment again
A final push for a $45 million agriculture bond was still not quite enough to get the legislation past the finish line and on the November ballot. Instead, the bond is stuck between chambers as the Maine Legislature ends the session.
Voice-first chatbots will exacerbate AI’s mental health threat
The debate about AI and mental health has so far focused on content. But the way the content is delivered matters, too.
The gamble in Trump’s Iran blockade that could decide the war
President Donald Trump’s switch from kinetic to economic warfare with his blockade of Iran’s ships and ports is an attempt to end the conflict without a new US-Israeli onslaught.
Indigenous Leadership for Health: Virtual Preparatory Webinar to UNPFII 2026
English - French - Portuguese - Spanish - Russian Indigenous Peoples have the right to the highest attainable standard of physical and mental health. WHO invites you to join Indigenous Leadership for Health, a virtual preparatory webinar to the 25th Session of the UN Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues (UNPFII 2026), to be held on Thursday, 16 April 2026, from 13:30 to 16:00 CEST, via Zoom. Interpretation will be available in English, French, Portuguese, Russian, and Spanish.This event brings together Indigenous leaders working on health to help shape the forthcoming WHO Global Plan of Action on the Health of Indigenous Peoples (GPoA). It is co-organized by WHO, the Government of Brazil, the Government of the Philippines, and the Johns Hopkins Center for Indigenous Health.The webinar will be divided into two parts, each with a corresponding objective:Part I – Contents of the draft Global Plan of Action. Part I's objective is to provide an update on the process for development of the Global Plan of Action on the Health of Indigenous Peoples, to share important lessons learnt from previous work and inputs received thus far, and to invite participants to send written inputs to the Plan. The linkages to the health topics to be discussed at the forthcoming UNPFII will also be highlighted.Part II – Panel on Indigenous Leadership for Health. Part II's objective is to highlight Indigenous leadership, knowledge systems, and community-driven approaches that contribute to improving the health and well-being of Indigenous Peoples, through the sharing of select country and regional examples.Registration is free and open to all. Register hereWe encourage all Indigenous organizations, communities, partners, and individuals to join us and contribute to this important global process.
The value of free health insurance: Evidence from Mexico’s Seguro Popular
Expanding free health insurance is central to universal health coverage, but its impact depends on how households value it. This column examines Mexico’s Seguro Popular and shows that households value the programme less than its fiscal cost. This helps explain why its effects on labour markets were modest and suggests that overall welfare gains may be smaller than often assumed, despite the programme’s large expansion in coverage.
Sexual abuse allegations spur calls for a broader reckoning in Congress
Resignations came quickly this week from two congressmen accused of sexual misconduct toward staff members. Yet for many of the women of Capitol Hill, the moment of accountability was years in the making — and far from enough.
Good News! Another State Agreed to Change the Way We Decide National Elections.
I don’t know what to make of Governor Abigail Spanberger, but so far, she’s moving Virginia in the right direction.
Red Sox 9, Twins 5; Boston swings to salvage finale
The Red Sox broke out the bats in need of a response from Tuesday’s shutout loss. A big day for Trevor Story (5 RBIs) helped Boston earn a 9-5 win over the Minnesota Twins. The Red Sox avoided the sweep against the best team in the American League so far. Here are three takeaways from […]
La. Senate panel OKs bill to indoctrinate teens in conservative 'success' ideology
Two Black Democrats on the committee, Katrina Jackson-Andrews and Sidney Barthelemy II, objected to naming the bill after far-right activist Charlie Kirk, who had a history of publicly making racist and other derogatory comments.
What to know about United Airlines' new basic business fares
United Airlines has launched basic versions of its Polaris and Premium Plus tickets. Here's what restrictions you'll face.
Scientists Think Dark Matter May Be Filling Our Galaxy With Mysterious Light
No theory could explain the slight excess of far-ultraviolet light in the Milky Way until now.
How I Got My Career in Foreign Policy: Matthias Matthijs | Council on Foreign Relations
Matthias Matthijs’s career has spanned academia and think tanks. He sat down with CFR to discuss the benefits of observing European politics from afar, the importance of remaining open-minded in your career, and conducting dissertation research in London’s House of Lords tea room.
Outpatient & Specialty Care Stocks Q4 Recap: Benchmarking agilon health (NYSE:AGL)
The end of the earnings season is always a good time to take a step back and see who shined (and who not so much). Let’s take a look at how outpatient & specialty care stocks fared in Q4, starting with agilon health (NYSE:AGL).
Can defense contracts save VW's Osnabrück factory?
Volkswagen's Osnabrück plant is still building cars, but the order book is drying up quickly. As work fades, could a move into defense manufacturing save 2,500 local jobs? So far, the company is staying tight-lipped.
Planned Parenthood endorses Mills in Maine U.S. Senate race
Mills is in a three-way Democratic primary on the June 9 ballot. She faces Sullivan oyster farmer and veteran Graham Platner and former federal official David Costello of Brunswick.
PlayStation 5 sees massive sales spike in the US, beating 2026 records so far as eager consumers rush to beat RAM crisis price hikes
PlayStation 5 sales have skyrocketed in the US following announced price rises, as people race to beat surging costs.
From a massive living area to an entertainment room and art collection: Ram Kapoor’s approximately Rs 20 crore Mumbai house
Ram Kapoor enjoys a lavish lifestyle in Mumbai with wife Gautami and kids. He once gave a glimpse of his luxurious Mumbai house in a Farah Khan’s vlog. The house is worth around Rs 20 crore and includes an entertainment room, bar and much more. Here’s a look at his lavish Mumbai house:
Worried about the midterms, Republicans mobilize rural Virginia voters against redistricting
Republican groups are mounting an intensifying, 11th-hour campaign to mobilize rural voters ahead of Virginia’s April 21 referendum to redraw its US House maps. At stake are as many as four US House seats Democrats want to redraw in their favor for the midterms. To maximize Democratic advantage, the map would put wealthy Washington, DC, suburbs in the same districts as farm communities 90 miles away, including in one misshapen district nicknamed the “lobster claw.”
Labour claims Reform UK won’t protect women, as poll suggests Farage’s party heading for ‘seismic’ wins in May
Poll projects major political earthquake across Britain with Labour losing Wales and England’s Red Wall
Justice Dept. Moves to Vacate Jan. 6 Convictions for Far-Right Extremists
Defending the convictions would likely have required administration officials to assert that far-right groups were acting on behalf of President Trump on Jan. 6, 2021.
Every ‘Handmaid’s Tale’ Easter Egg in ‘The Testaments’ (So Far)
Every time the spinoff has referenced the original series.
Scientists Uncover Hidden Force Powering Yellowstone’s Supervolcano
A new geodynamic model is reshaping how scientists understand supervolcanoes, revealing that their magma systems may be far more diffuse and dynamic than previously believed.
EPA, DDA, Renew Pledge to First State Farming, Environmental Health with Memorandum of Understanding - State of Delaware News
The MOU covers topics from communication and education to environmental stewardship, funding opportunities and regulatory programs.
Industry Insight: See How Your Business Compares With Pay and Benefits for Key Roles
The Scoop’s annual salary survey offers benchmarking data to aid with recruiting and retaining ag retail employees.
Postal Service union launches ad campaign promoting mail voting as Trump seeks to limit it
The 30-second message features a variety of voters, among them a busy farmer and a flight attendant, explaining why they cast their ballots by mail.
Prides Corner Farms Establishes Scholarships for Plant Science Students
The donation will establish the Prides Corner Farms Graduate Scholarship and the Prides Corner Farms Student Success Fund. The funds will support students p ...
Millions of Floridians Will Bear the Brunt of Trump’s Health Cuts
(Bloomberg) -- Millions of people in the US are expected to lose their health coverage in coming years because of shrinking funding for federal programs. Few states would suffer a bigger blow than Florida.Enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies expired in December. More than $900 billion in cuts to Medicaid safety-net programs are on the horizon. Across the US, in excess of 14 million people are expected to lose health insurance through 2034, according to health-policy research nonprofit KFF.Flor
Exclusive: GOP pushes sweetener for cash-pay drugs
Paying cash for drugs so far has limited appeal for insured patients.
Opinion | A Road Map for Defeating Trumpism
The free world should take an honest look at how Hungary’s opposition party defeated a far-right giant.
Richmond high schooler looks to ramp up his electronics recycling business in deal with national nonprofit
“In terms of a future, I’d love to scale this up. This is not something that’s going to end when I go to college,” said Richmond high schooler Loch Macfarlane.
Carbon removal project supports Maine’s blue economy, broader marine health
MIT researchers introduce a chemical-free approach to balancing ocean acidity that protects marine life and could have huge impact on the global aquaculture market.
Nige and Zia set out plan to send ‘Boriswave’ traitors to the gulag
Farage and sidekick are still sore about how the Tories handled Brexit, although new mates Braverman and Jenrick are forgiven
'View' stars slam Donald Trump sharing image of himself as Jesus: 'Blasphemous'
'The View' star Sunny Hostin called for the use of the 25th amendment after Donald Trump shared image of himself as Jesus: 'God is not to be mocked,' added former Trump staffer Alyssa Farah Griffin.
2026 MLB Power Rankings: What Are The Injuries To Watch For All 30 Teams?
Our latest MLB power rankings and how injuries have already affected every team so far.
Preparing for Cyber Warfare Risks: Why Every Business Must Strengthen Cloud Security
Cyber warfare risks continue to rise as geological tensions escalate. Learn how to strengthen your cloud security, and mitigate any cyber warfare risks.
The Iran war may be on pause but the political fallout is not
The political consequences for President Trump and congressional Republicans are far from over.
How 3 small Gainesville businesses are using — or rejecting
As the integration of AI becomes more prominent, local businesses are deciding how far they are willing to incorporate it into their systems.
Political notes: 'Flowers' for the living, cupcakes for the interim birthday caucus
The farewell celebrations continue as the session nears the end, retiring from the House of Delegates comes with more than just some flowers and kind words and the large, but so far unseen, Interim Birthday Caucus gets its day, in political notes.
State Farm sues Amazon after dehumidifier allegedly sparks fire
A federal agency deemed Amazon a "distributor" - now an insurer wants it to pay
After Charlie Kirk’s Death, a Fight for the Youth Vote
A fledgling Democratic group and the far-right white nationalist Nick Fuentes seek to make gains on college campuses that have recently been dominated by Turning Point USA.
JAXA's 22-Year Bet on Frozen Comet Samples: What a Multi-Decade Mission Timeline Means for Planetary Science Funding
In the world of planetary science, a decade-long mission is considered ambitious. JAXA, Japan’s space agency, is now weighing something far more audacious: a sample return mission that wouldn’t deliver its cargo until the late 2040s, more than 22 years from the earliest planning stages. The proposed Next Generation Small-Body Return (NGSR) mission to comet […]
Already under financial pressure, Midwest soybean farmers are squeezed further by tariffs, Iran war
Midwest soybean farmers are facing an array of compounding issues | WBEN
Viktor Orbán’s defeat ‘a defining moment’ in Europe. What comes next?
Orbán acknowledged Sunday that he was too far behind to stage a comeback against Péter Magyar, Hungary’s new prime minister.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán ousted after 'painful' election result, ending 16 years in power
Hungarian voters on Sunday ousted long-serving Prime Minister Viktor Orbán after 16 years in power, rejecting the authoritarian policies and global far-right movement that he embodied in favor of a pro-European challenger.
Pokemon Champions next Battle Pass contents leak
The Pokemon Company is no stranger to leaks what with the massive Gigaleak and the Terraleak. Now on a far smaller scale dataminer, ChicoEevee, has discovered all 50 levels of Pokemon Champions Battle…
New York Jets Flight Connections 04/12/26
Happy Sunday, Jets fans! Here are your links for the last day of this April weekend. Nick Faria – Jets have another potential trade partner in the first round Nick Faria – One line from scout highlights Jets’ real draft ‘plan’ Stefan Stelling – Slipping WR prospect could fall into Jets’ laps at No. 16 […]
China, Iran weaponized the global economy to beat the U.S. at its own game
Washington once enjoyed a near monopoly over this type of economic warfare, but now American consumers and companies are starting to feel the pain.
Pulling Reports, Playing Politics
The CIA’s retraction of intelligence reports should raise concerns about politicization and the Trump administration’s embrace of white supremacist rhetoric.
Yankees news: Boone angry with ABS failures
Yanks worst in baseball at challenges; bottom of lineup a Problem; farewell to Winquest; RIP to an old-timer.
Football fans are being taken for a ride by the NFL — the DOJ could stop that
Nobody should be surprised that the Justice Department has opened an investigation into the NFL’s antitrust exemption — but it’s far from clear how this game will end.
Seniors: Dennis Ouellette, 80
Ontario Orchards owner not slowing down as he grows his farm market By Stefan Yablonski The seeds for Dennis Ouellette’s career path were sown when he was 6 years old — and he isn’t slowing down. “Since age 6, I grew up an agriculturalist. That is 72 years. Started out with a 37-acre farm when I bought it from my parents and built it up to almost 300 acres. Brought it back down to around 200 acres now,” he said. The location of his business was just a barn, a horse barn, he said. “In 1967, it officially became Ontario Orchards Farm Market. My wife [June] and I graduated [high school] in 1964 and three years later we became Ontario Orchards. We have been here more than 60 years,” he explained. “It is the same location. We have expanded over the years as the customers mentioned different things; we have expanded to bring in different products. “What keeps me going is I totally enjoy what I am doing. I enjoy the people that I work with. The customers are wonderful. Mostly, more important than anything, is my family — my wife, my daughters, grandchildren, son-in-law — we are still very much a family business I’m not going to retire just yet.” He also enjoys the changing seasons. “Ontario Orchards is a four-season business. There is always something new; more energy, more interest. Not only for the business but for my staff, the people that work here. Things keep changing, changing. We are always looking forward to something new and exciting,” he said. They work with quite a number of local farmers within the area and throughout the state, throughout the country and from around the world.” “We do have things from different countries around the world. But specifically, we are very excited about the local. We have an over 200-acre farm. We sell just about everything we raise on that farm right here at the farm market. For example, we press cider year-round. We make baked goods every day, year-round. We sell our apples 12 months a year.” “Today, there are so many products in Ontario Orchards that we never would have thought of in 1967,” he continued. “I attribute a lot of that to my daughters. I like the young blood and new energy. That is very crucial to a business, it keeps it vibrant.” What’s his favorite part of the job? “I don’t have a favorite part. I enjoy it all. I have a lot of intertest in other things,” he said. “I have staff that knows so much. I can go to the staff and say, ‘I don’t know what this is, you tell me what this is.’ They are so knowledgeable. It is impossible for one person to know everything in this place. In the summer, staff is about 60; in the winter about 20, 25.” He added that he plans on being around for several more years.
Defiant Swalwell still sees a path to victory in governor's race
So far, Swalwell is casting the allegations against him as a political conspiracy to take down the frontrunner for the governor’s office.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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