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Air Canada to debut luxe new cabins and business class seats
Air Canada previewed a stunning new business class seat for its Airbus A321XLR and Boeing 787-10, along with refreshed coach and premium economy cabins.
Letter: It's not politics, it's the Gospel
"Funny how (Sen.) Cramer thinks it's OK to twist Biblical passages to defend his political cruelty, but not for the Pope to speak out on the very thing all ministers of the Gospel are called to proclaim – advocacy for the least of these and the message of peace, love, grace and acceptance that’s the core of who God is and what preachers are ordained to preach," writes Rev. Paula V. Mehmel.
Patriots draft profile: Kayden McDonald is a dominant run defender
The Ohio State product is the best defensive tackle in this class.
Current Capital One Venture Business welcome bonus offer
The current bonus offer on the Capital One Venture Business provides new cardholders the chance to earn valuable Capital One miles. Here's what you need to know.
Lucky 8, Sharp Entertainment Producers Ratify Labor Contracts
Nonfiction television staffers at the production companies behind ‘90 Day Fiancé’ and ‘The Food That Built America’ have greenlit new three-year labor deals.
Apple Launches New All-in-One Apple Business Platform for Device Management, Email, and Customer...
Apple today launched its new all-in-one Apple Business platform, debuting the refreshed Apple Business web portal and accompanying app. Apple Business aggregates several of Apple's prior business-focused products, like Apple Business Essentials, Apple Business Manager, and Apple Business Connect. The service offers organizations a unified platform for managing devices, employees, communications, and customer engagement across the Apple ecosystem.
Heartflow sues cardiology AI rival Cleerly over alleged patent infringement
According to Heartflow, Cleerly's actions represent “one of the most egregious examples of piracy in the medical technology industry.” Cleerly commented on the lawsuit, defending the value and integrity of its products.
The Economic Case for Health
The Economic Case for Health shows how better health supports jobs, boosts productivity and drives growth — making it a smart investment for Kansas’ economy.
Welcome to Half Moon Grey
At Rivian, our paint palette has always been an extension of the places we explore, from the deep woods of Forest Green to the vibrant sunset warmth of Red Canyon. Half Moon Grey is the newest color in our lineup, carrying a similar depth to El Cap Granite that it replaces, while introducing more warmth and a finer metallic that is a more natural expression of grey. It is subtle in tone and designed to shift with its surroundings. But this is more than just another shade of grey; it’s a masterclass in color science and organic inspiration.
Capital One closes Spark Miles, launches Venture Business
The Capital One Spark Miles is no longer open to new applicants, but the Venture Business has arrived to offer solid perks in its place.
Tulsa, OKC business leaders unite for first joint Washington, D.C. trip
Business leaders from across Oklahoma are heading to the nation's capitol this week to advocate for a shared legislative agenda aimed at boosting economic development across the state.
NSF lags in grant awards and Trump again proposes deep cuts to science
The latest science policy news.
“Hiding science in really fun things”: Kids gets hands-on with real research in Denver
Squishy Science Sunday, part of APS’ Global Physics Summit, welcomed 1,500 visitors to a local museum.
Quarterback John Mateer, OU offense experiencing 'super productive' offseason
The OU offense has had sharp development throughout the offseason, according to redshirt junior quarterback John Mateer, between his individual throwing mechanics, the team’s communication and rushing improvement.
Exynos 2600 Was Born Out Of Sheer Necessity And Wouldn’t Have Entered Mass Production If Samsung’s Mistakes Not Cost It $3 Billion Last Year
As Samsung races towards self-sufficiency in the chipset race, it only mass produced the Exynos 2600 because it lost $3 billion in 2025
Masters action shows ongoing sports-betting growth of prediction markets
Sports books are in danger of taking a backseat to prediction markets.
Gemini for Google Home Keeps Getting Huge Upgrades
We can't seem to go a week at this point without Google pushing out several upgrades and changes to its Google Home products. From Gemini for Home to bug and reliability fixes, we're really...
iPhone Fold Production Pushed Back, But Fall 2026 Launch Still on Track
Production on the iPhone Fold is behind schedule, but the device is still slated to launch in fall 2026, reports DigiTimes. The site says that production has been pushed back by "roughly one to two months," but Apple has not communicated any launch delays to suppliers. Apple is still planning for a 2026 launch, which suggests a tighter production schedule. Apple planned to begin iPhone Fold mass production in June 2026, but mass production has now slipped to early August.
Blackmagic Design announces Blackmagic URSA Cine 12K LF 100G
Blackmagic Design today announced Blackmagic URSA Cine 12K LF 100G, a new model in the URSA Cine family with 100G Ethernet for high-frame-rate SMPTE-2110 live production output up to 440 fps. Building on the digital film features of the URSA Cine 12K LF, including the large format RGBW 36x24mm sensor, the new model adds dramatically faster … Continued
Eliot Wolf: "Business as usual" for Mike Vrabel in Patriots draft preparations
Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel was not present for the team's pre-draft press conference on Monday, which means that he didn't have to field any questions about the release of photos that have created questions about his relationship with The Athletic's NFL reporter Dianna Russini.
Fastenal CEO says business has been ‘slowly ramping up’ since last summer
Fastenal CEO Dan Florness joins 'Money Movers' to discuss an uptick in industrial production, tariff impacts, and more.
‘Come From Away’: West Springfield production tells 9/11 story of kindness
The Tony and Grammy-Award winning production will be staged at the Majestic Theater April 16 through May 31.
'Metro 2039' confirmed for "Xbox First Look" show: New format will spotlight games throughout the year.
Xbox's showcase production team has been on a big tear this year, and another new format is on the horizon: starting with the return of Metro.
Meta Expected to Unseat Google as World’s Largest Digital-Ad Player
The owner of Instagram and Facebook has fueled growth with new advertising products and AI.
Coachella 2026: The 21 best moments from the fest's 25th-anniversary weekend
From Justin Bieber and his laptop to the high-production headlining sets from Sabrina Carpenter and Karol G and the best of everything in between at Coachella.
Edina students pitch business ideas in ‘Shark Tank’ competition
An innovative claw clip, a way to recycle old flowers and bento boxes were some of the products pitched by Edina High School students at the sixth annual Edina Shark
Apple Testing Four Smart Glasses Styles Made of High-End Materials
Apple is developing at least four different styles of smart glasses, and the company is betting that their superior design will set them apart from rival products, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. Writing in his latest Power On newsletter, Gurman says that Apple's latest designs are made from a high-end material called acetate, which is "more durable and luxurious" than the standard plastic used by most existing brands.
FDA accepts previously rejected application for new PET imaging agent
The radiopharma firm hopes to soon begin selling Pixclara (Floretyrosine F 18), an investigational product for glioma, a type of brain cancer.
BUSINESS MONDAY: Spotlight on Konkapot Tree and Timber in Ashley Falls
The full-service operation provides sustainable forest management, custom sawmilling, lumber production, firewood, and tree services.
South Plainfield HS Environmental Science Club Members Research 100 Years of Plastic
SOUTH PLAINFIELD, NJ - Last month, the Borough turned a century old and members of the South Plainfield High School Environmental Science Club joined in the celebration with a research project that...
Breaking cover: the future of the business book
Authors are experimenting with new technology and formats to better communicate ideas
Working at the Grassroots Level: A Qualitative Exploration of Frontline Health Workers’ Experiences in Tribal Maternal and Reproductive Health Services
Background Frontline health workers play a crucial role in bridging gaps between health systems and marginalized communities. However, there is limited evidence of their experiences within tr...
Apple reportedly testing out four different styles for its smart glasses that will rival Meta Ray-Bans
Apple's smart glasses could be announced as early as this year, followed by a product release in 2027.
Report: Hideo Kojima's Physint New Casting Details Unearthed, Teasing a Villain
Production on Kojima's return to action-espionage is gearing up, and we've unearthed brand new exclusive Physint casting details.
Clorox Purell Deal Reshapes Health And Hygiene Investment Story
Clorox (NYSE:CLX) has completed the acquisition of GOJO Industries, the company behind the Purell brand. The deal brings Purell hand sanitizer and related hygiene products into Clorox's health and hygiene solutions portfolio. The acquisition is intended to support broader global reach and a more comprehensive offering in cleaning and disinfecting products. For you as an investor, this move connects a household cleaning name with a widely recognized hand hygiene brand under one umbrella...
Old Forge library to host two original plays
Two original plays will be performed April 16 at Old Forge Library. The free event features local actors and a debut production.
Medicaid Cuts Could Force More Kids to Become Caregivers
Trump’s Medicaid cuts are expected to limit access to home care services—potentially forcing many kids to become caregivers, warns Lisa McCarty.
China's Chery looking to expand car production in Europe, top executives say
Chery is looking to expand car production in Europe through partnerships with other automakers allowing it to use existing factories, top executives at the Chinese carmaker said at an event in Paris.
University of Idaho opens new meat science center in Moscow
MOSCOW, Idaho — The University of Idaho opened a new meat science innovation center that gives students more room for classes and expands research and production.
Costco Just Introduced the Kirkland Product Fans Have 'Been Waiting For,' and It's Selling Out Fast
Costco’s Kirkland Signature Ultra-Filtered Reduced Fat Milk, which is remarkably similar to Fairlife 2% Lactose-Free Milk, boasts 13 grams of protein per serving and half of the sugar compared to regular milk, at a fraction of the cost.
Black doulas work to bridge health disparities for Black mothers
Saturday marked Global Black Doula Day and the start of Black Maternal Health Week. Pregnant and postpartum parents gathered on the West Side for a community baby shower.
Chamber of Commerce Presents Achievement Awards
Event also marked 110th of the chamber’s presence in Oswego [caption id=attachment_10469 align=alignright width=450] Abby Waever and Keara Patterson (in the middle) receive the Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group.[/caption] The Greater Oswego-Fulton Chamber of Commerce (GOFCC) on March 4 hosted its 2026 Annual Meeting, presented by Constellation, at the Lake Ontario Event and Conference Center in Oswego. The event’s theme, Rooted in Community. The meeting celebrated the GOFCC’s 110th anniversary in the Oswego community and 10th anniversary of integration with CenterState CEO. The chamber also unveiled a new logo. “I am proud to say the GOFCC has been a force for business success, growth and opportunity, supporting organizations of every size, connecting neighbors and entrepreneurs and ensuring that every voice in Oswego County is heard,” said GOFCC Executive Director Sara Broadwell. The event featured keynote remarks from Novelis’s Kevin Schutt, vice president, manufacturing and production support at Novelis North America. [caption id=attachment_10454 align=alignright width=450] Maria Hudson of Constellation, holding the award, receives the Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award.[/caption] The GOFCC recognized the following organizations and individuals with achievement awards: • Oswego County Impact & Excellence Award, presented to Oswego County Office of Mobility Management. This award Honors a small business or nonprofit organization that demonstrates outstanding achievement through innovation, growth and measurable positive impact on Oswego County’s economy or quality of life. • Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group. This award recognizes an individual, business or organization whose long-term leadership, investment or philanthropy has significantly advanced the vitality, resilience and future of Oswego County’s communities. • Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award, presented to Maria Hudson of Constellation. This award honors a woman in business who has made a meaningful impact on her community, inspired others through her leadership, and exemplified the values of service, integrity and empowerment. This award is presented in tribute to the late Nancy Premo, CenterState CEO’s former vice president of Human Resources.
Seniors: Dennis Ouellette, 80
Ontario Orchards owner not slowing down as he grows his farm market By Stefan Yablonski The seeds for Dennis Ouellette’s career path were sown when he was 6 years old — and he isn’t slowing down. “Since age 6, I grew up an agriculturalist. That is 72 years. Started out with a 37-acre farm when I bought it from my parents and built it up to almost 300 acres. Brought it back down to around 200 acres now,” he said. The location of his business was just a barn, a horse barn, he said. “In 1967, it officially became Ontario Orchards Farm Market. My wife [June] and I graduated [high school] in 1964 and three years later we became Ontario Orchards. We have been here more than 60 years,” he explained. “It is the same location. We have expanded over the years as the customers mentioned different things; we have expanded to bring in different products. “What keeps me going is I totally enjoy what I am doing. I enjoy the people that I work with. The customers are wonderful. Mostly, more important than anything, is my family — my wife, my daughters, grandchildren, son-in-law — we are still very much a family business I’m not going to retire just yet.” He also enjoys the changing seasons. “Ontario Orchards is a four-season business. There is always something new; more energy, more interest. Not only for the business but for my staff, the people that work here. Things keep changing, changing. We are always looking forward to something new and exciting,” he said. They work with quite a number of local farmers within the area and throughout the state, throughout the country and from around the world.” “We do have things from different countries around the world. But specifically, we are very excited about the local. We have an over 200-acre farm. We sell just about everything we raise on that farm right here at the farm market. For example, we press cider year-round. We make baked goods every day, year-round. We sell our apples 12 months a year.” “Today, there are so many products in Ontario Orchards that we never would have thought of in 1967,” he continued. “I attribute a lot of that to my daughters. I like the young blood and new energy. That is very crucial to a business, it keeps it vibrant.” What’s his favorite part of the job? “I don’t have a favorite part. I enjoy it all. I have a lot of intertest in other things,” he said. “I have staff that knows so much. I can go to the staff and say, ‘I don’t know what this is, you tell me what this is.’ They are so knowledgeable. It is impossible for one person to know everything in this place. In the summer, staff is about 60; in the winter about 20, 25.” He added that he plans on being around for several more years.
Seniors: Carol Watson, 72
Owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping in LaFayette enjoys her growing business — still puts in six-, seven-day weeks By Mary Beth Roach Carol Watson, the owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping, has been in gardens since she could walk. Literally. She said she learned to walk in her grandfather’s garden, which was next door to her current home and business in LaFayette. Today, at 72, she is running the business that her mother, Claire, opened in 1981 as Watson Greenhouse. Watson worked part-time for her mom until 1990, when she joined her full time. While she may not have had any formal horticultural experience, she said she learned so much about growing and raising plants from her mom, who had an abundance of energy and talent. Now, after 35 years in the business full time, Watson has no plans to retire, although she joked that she’d like a couple of days off a week. On her seven-acre site, complete with four greenhouses, Watson said her favorite parts of the job are working with and educating her customers; helping some of her young customers build terrariums; conducting occasional class field trips; and supporting local art by decorating the shop with an eclectic mix of pottery from at least four area craftspeople. A one-time employee of the former Dey Bros. department store in Syracuse, Watson said she loves merchandising and enjoys displaying unique pieces of art on shelves and even suspending from ceilings. “We’re creative. We also had top quality plants. We got a reputation of quality plants and unusual products,” she said. It’s tending to her customers and her plants, showcasing the unusual products, and hosting special events to benefit the community that keep her motivated to work six to seven days a week. “I just love it. I love taking care of the plants. I’m one of the few people that really enjoys watering,” she said. And while she has cultivated a solid customer base over the years, she remains savvy in her marketing efforts to draw in new customers. For example, she does a gardening segment on CNY Central television; her active Facebook page has thousands of followers; and she hosts a number of unique events and classes that not only introduce her shop to potential new clients, but some benefit nonprofits as well. About 13 years ago, when the local symphony orchestra was struggling, she said she wanted to help. So, partnering with the group, she began offering concerts, called Soirees, featuring the Syracuse Orchestra’s string quartet. Following up on a suggestion from a customer whose brother is a deejay in retirement, specializing in sock hops, she hosted the greenhouse’s first sock hop. Plants got moved back toward the walls to make room for dancing; a caterer was brought in, offering diner-like food; guests came in period outfits; and proceeds went to the Food Bank of CNY. She is excited about doing it again in October. Via her website, she promotes the greenhouse as an “oasis in the snow,” offering visitors the opportunity to pick up some decorating and gift ideas while taking in the floral and citrus scents. And she also caters to her four-legged friends. Over this past winter, she said, she came up with a “brilliant idea,” although at the time she didn’t appreciate just how brilliant it would become. Feeling it too cold outside to take her dog for a walk, she opted to bring it into the greenhouse. And before long, she was inviting people to bring their dogs into the big greenhouse as well. She looks forward to extending that invitation again this upcoming winter season. For Watson and her customers, the greenhouse is always in season.
Artemis II was a product of politics. Then it sent us over the Moon
In both 1968 and 2026, a mission to the Moon offered a refreshing blast of positivity for a conflict-ridden world. So what's different now — and what do we really gain from this new moonshot, five decades after the first?
Local View: Parable of three donors illustrates money in politics
From the column: "If the candidate takes the cash, it will be commingled into one larger snowball of contributions to make larger buys with diminishing marginal returns in voters per dollar."
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Pool at Altru Sports Complex will also house UND diving facility to simulate low gravity
The neutral buoyancy facility will be built under the floor of the pool's deep end and used for experiments, research and training in the space studies program.
Health alert issued for beef and pork products sold in Virginia
A public health alert has been issued for several raw beef and pork products sold through a retailer with locations across Virginia and in Richmond.
Anthropic closes in on OpenAI as US business use surges
Divergence reflects company’s recent rapid growth owing to strong interest in its Claude Code products
Framework CEO warns AI boom may lead to a scenario where "personal computing as we know it is dead”
Framework CEO Nirav Patel warns that the AI boom and a “winner-takes-all” scramble for chips and storage could drive up component costs and push consumers toward cloud-leased, closed devices, effectively ending personal computing as traditionally understood. While acknowledging progress in repairability across the industry, he positions Framework’s upcoming Next Gen Event as part of a renewed pledge to defend user ownership through upgradable, repairable hardware and local control over data and computation.
Report: Dianna Russini "will not be reporting" during internal investigation
The New York Times has reversed course regarding NFL insider Dianna Russini.
The Latest Foldable iPhone Rumors: What's Changed and What We Know Now
Rumors about Apple's first foldable iPhone are picking up now that the device has entered a new testing stage that precedes mass production. If you've been having trouble keeping up with what's new, we've recapped the latest iPhone Fold rumors that have come out over the last few weeks. Naming One rumor claims Apple will call its foldable iPhone the "iPhone Ultra," which doesn't seem out of the question.
Business booming for local skincare business after relocation
The new store is more open, allowing customers to see products being made as they shop.
Wearables need to cross from consumer to health care market
They could repeat Fitbit's story if they don't cross over from consumer to health care products.
Penner Sports Group becomes largest minority owner of MLB's Colorado Rockies
Broncos owners Carrie Walton Penner and Greg Penner are expanding their footprint in Denver sports.
Health alert issued for beef and pork products sold in Virginia
A public health alert has been issued for several raw beef and pork products sold through a retailer with locations across Virginia and in Richmond.
CMS highlights new digital health ecosystem tools
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services April 9 held a demonstration showcasing the first series of products intended to push the health care industry toward a more connected ecosystem. The event highlighted tools and applications from more than 50 companies supporting the Medicare App Library that was initially announced in February.
Record-Breaking Indie Series “The Amazing Digital Circus” From Glitch Productions Heads to U.S. Theatres with Fathom Entertainment for ‘The Last Act’ Finale June 4-7
Record-Breaking Indie Series “The Amazing Digital Circus” From Glitch Productions Heads to U.S. Theatres with Fathom Entertainment for ‘The Last Act’ Finale June 4-7 - Record-Breaking Indie Series “The Amazing Digital Circus” From Glitch Productions Heads to U.S. Theatres with Fathom Entertainment for ‘The Last Act’ Finale June 4-7
Unique X, Imagica Entertainment Media Services Partner to Transform Japanese Cinema Advertising Business
Digital cinema software provider Unique X and Imagica Entertainment Media Services (Imagica EMS), the market leader in Japan for post-production and media services, today announced the signing of a full long-term agreement, building upon their original Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). This strategic partnership establishes a robust framework for an exclusive collaboration aimed at transforming and […]
Title X Funding Restored, but New Rules Raise Concerns
By HealthDay Staff HealthDay ReporterFRIDAY, April 10, 2026 (HealthDay News) — Federal funding for reproductive health clinics is back on track, but some new rules appear to stray from the original goals. Clinics that rely on the Title X program have now received their funding after the Trump ...
Regional business leaders share their perspectives on business advice
This month, we asked: What's the best business advice you've received and why?
Menopause products are having a hot minute. But doctors urge women to be wary of the marketing surge
Women suffering through the hot flashes, night sweats, mood changes and sleep problems that can come with menopause — all while looking in the mirror and noticing signs of aging — are being bombarded with products.
Calls to Impeach Trump Collide With Reluctant Democratic Leadership
Democratic leaders are urging against efforts within the party to impeach Trump before the midterms, say those involved in the debate
Watch out for college sports 'reforms' that shortchange student-athletes
If the system is constrained for those whose labor actually generates the revenue, that is not reform — it is codified inequality.
Framework Computer To Announce Their Next-Gen Hardware Later This Month
Linux-friendly hardware vendor Framework Computer sent out a notice this morning that they will be announcing their new 2026 hardware products later this month.
Women’s Brains Are a $1 Trillion Opportunity
Women’s health is a macroeconomic opportunity we have ignored, write Lisa Mosconi and George Vradenburg.
Canadian distillery reports 'immense growth' after provinces pull U.S. liquors
One Canadian distillery said the retaliatory ban on U.S. alcohol products has caused a surge in sales of locally-produced liquor.
Looking for sports to watch for free? Here's a FAST way to do it
FAST stands for free ad-supported streaming television. Granted, FAST channels don’t carry the biggest games, but in a world where watching sports only gets more expensive, I refer you back to the word FREE.
Kansas City health leaders announce new integrated theranostics research and treatment center
The center will unite diagnostics, molecular imaging, radiopharmaceutical production and targeted therapies under one coordinated platform.
Brand new musical 'Last Night on Rue Bayou' opens soon in New Orleans
Discover the vibrant music and captivating stories of "Last Night on Rue Bayou" and "Jagged Little Pill" in the upcoming productions in the area. Engaging performances and immersive experiences await!
Saving the queen: Scientists study bee reproduction to strengthen colonies
Texas A&M AgriLife Research study looks at how healthy queens and drones contribute to bee colony resilience in challenging environments.
Expert Analysis | Discounting cannabis products at your business? Make sure to calculate tax correctly
New York’s adult-use cannabis marketing and advertising rules allow retailers to offer discounts, loyalty programs and other promotions — but only if the
Road to Vostok's hot start on Steam has "secured the entire production budget" the Finnish survival shooter needs for "years to come", dev says
Road to Vostok, a Finnish survival shooter, has already secured the budget it needs for years to come following an early access release, its developer says.
Halfway through spring football, Notre Dame is putting things together
So far, it’s been a comfortable spring for Notre Dame Football, but will it lead to a productive fall?
Vilma Jää Brings herding calls and mocking songs to Met Opera’s production of 'Innocence'
Vilma Jää never expected to play a major role in one of the 21st century’s most acclaimed operas when she enrolled at the Sibelius Academy to study folk music | 1080 WTIC NEWSTALK
Vilma Jää Brings herding calls and mocking songs to Met Opera’s production of 'Innocence'
Vilma Jää never expected to play a major role in one of the 21st century’s most acclaimed operas when she enrolled at the Sibelius Academy to study folk music | Talk Radio 1210 WPHT
Vilma Jää Brings herding calls and mocking songs to Met Opera’s production of 'Innocence'
Vilma Jää never expected to play a major role in one of the 21st century’s most acclaimed operas when she enrolled at the Sibelius Academy to study folk music | KYW Newsradio
Vilma Jää Brings herding calls and mocking songs to Met Opera’s production of 'Innocence'
Vilma Jää never expected to play a major role in one of the 21st century’s most acclaimed operas when she enrolled at the Sibelius Academy to study folk music | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM
Arm chief Haas in line to lead much of SoftBank’s international business
New job driving Japanese group’s AI strategy would be in addition to running the UK chip company
Things to do this weekend in Metro Detroit
Concerts, comedy, dance and more are on deck around town this weekend, April 10-12.
City of Independence bans synthetic 7-OH, regulates kratom sold in businesses
The City of Independence voted to ban synthetic 7-OH and regulate its parent product, kratom, at Wednesday night's city council meeting.
Consider Kids’ Sports Gear as a Source of Contact Dermatitis
Modifications and alternative products can help manage sports-related allergens in children with allergic contact dermatitis.
As the cable business ebbs, AMC Networks takes a new name
The New York-based company wants to emphasize production instead of its traditional TV business.
BYU-Idaho Students Accepted to Health Professional Schools at Above-Average Rates
BYU-Idaho students applying to professional health programs during the 2024–2025 cycle achieved high acceptance rates to various medical schools.
Texas Hemp Businesses Sue State Over Rules That ‘Rewrite Law’
The Texas Hemp Businesses Council and other industry stakeholders are hoping to block the state from enforcing new rules that prohibit popular products.
Texas hemp industry leaders ask for temporary injunction against state
Restrictions set forth by DSHS include increased licensing fees, testing requirements and child-resistant packaging for hemp-derived THC products.
Why Talking Behind Someone's Back Isn't Always Bad
We're actually born to do it.
Polygon Labs in Talks to Raise Up to $100 Million for Payments Business
Polygon Labs, developer of the blockchain that underpins prediction market Polymarket and other crypto platforms, is in early talks with investors to raise as much as $100 million to build a new stablecoin payments business, according to people familiar with the talks. The funding discussions ...
Poulsbo’s Away With Words offers gifts for body and mind
Poulsbo's Away With Words is easier to get to than one might think and offers a unique blend of books and handmade bath and body products.
Kalamazoo production to bridge exploitation and entertainment during piano fest
"Good Night, Oscar" examines the intersection of humor and heartbreak while exploring themes of mental illness, celebrity exploitation, and entertainment’s impact on society.
Insta360 releases USB-C selfie screen it's calling Snap
Insta 360's new product offers super high resolution selfies.
Atkore Inc. Announces Sale of HDPE Pipe & Conduit Business to Infra Pipes
Atkore Inc. (the “Company”) (NYSE: ATKR), a leading manufacturer of electrical products for commercial, industrial, data center, and solar applications, toda...
New Peer-Reviewed Research Demonstrates Effectiveness of Paradigm Health Study Conduct Products
/PRNewswire/ -- New peer-reviewed research demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of Paradigm Health's EHR-integrated eSource platform to support...
How the Navy's retail business is working to pull off a turnaround
Sales have fallen at the Navy Exchange, the government-owned department store chain that provides tax-free products to enlisted servicemembers and veterans. Its stores are an important benefit to military families stationed across the world, and its profits directly improve the welfare of Navy sailors. The company is working to revamp its fleet of stores with a planned investment of around $100 million to better compete with major e-commerce players like Walmart and Amazon.
Kirk Cousins will now wear the "best jersey in pro sports"
Kirk Cousins had multiple reasons to sign with the Raiders.
Roblox's Peter Yang says AI is coming for corporate life
Roblox product lead and content creator Peter Yang spoke on a16z's podcast about AI's potential impact on corporate work and entrepreneurship.