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IBM goes on the road to find next wave of innovation in sports
The IBM Sports Tech Startup Challenge is a global effort to spotlight AI-driven startups with potential to redefine the sports industry.
Scientists Break Optical Limits With Quantum Dot-Powered Nanoscopy
A powerful new microscopy technique unveils hidden nanoscale light interactions, offering a glimpse into physics that conventional tools cannot resolve.
SAP Business AI: Release Highlights Q1 2026
In Q1 2026, SAP has a new in the chief AI officer role, but an unchanged mission: helping our customers get real value from AI.
Column: As ‘Soccer Dad’ can tell you, today’s youth sports are no simple fun and games
“Soccer Dad” is an enjoyable, enlightening and charming new book about David Murray’s journey into the youth sports world with his daughter Scout.
Physicists just witnessed pinpricks of darkness moving faster than the speed of light — without breaking the laws of relativity
For the first time, researchers measured singularities in combined light and sound waves moving faster than the speed of light. The findings have implications in fluid dynamics, optics and many other fields.
Scientists Challenge Black Hole Theory, Say Dark Matter Core May Lie At Centre Of Milky Way
Lead author Valentina Crespi explained that this dense dark matter core could bend light so strongly that it creates a dark region in the centre.
Blackmagic's DaVinci Resolve 21 takes on Adobe Lightroom with a new Photo page
Many creators are now using DaVinci Resolve instead of Adobe Premiere, and now Blackmagic Design is going after Photoshop.
Annual Science Potpourri sparks kids’ interest in sciences — The Sun Star
The University of Alaska Fairbanks held its annual Science Potpourri Saturday to the delight of the children in attendance. Laughter and “oohs” and “awws” were heard many times as the event held demonstrations with explosions, microscopes, museum curation, and other items to get children interested
The business of being Rachel Zoe
This week, I checked in on Rachel Zoe’s return to the spotlight and how she's leveraging value of the “Real Housewives” empire.
Scientists Discover Bizarre Crocodile Relative That Walked on Two Legs
A strange crocodile relative that may have shifted from four legs to two is shedding light on convergent evolution and the hidden diversity of Triassic ecosystems.
Dianna Russini situation highlights tension within the New York Times
NOAA Fisheries report highlights severe economic decline in Gulf shrimp fishery
NOAA Fisheries reveals a sharp and ongoing economic decline in the U.S. Gulf shrimp fishery, underscoring growing challenges for one of the nation’s historically important seafood industries.
Quantum systems can remember and forget at the same time, scientists discover
Quantum systems can secretly “remember” their past—even when they appear not to. Scientists found that whether a system shows memory depends on how you look at it: through its evolving state or its measurable properties. Each perspective uncovers different kinds of memory, meaning a system can seem memoryless and memory-filled at the same time. This discovery could change how researchers design and control quantum technologies.
Bethel conference highlights how ‘better science occurs’ with local knowledge at the table
Researchers and local experts gathered in Bethel in early April to share and compare environmental knowledge at the Western Alaska Interdisciplinary Science Conference, particularly across issues facing the Yukon-Kuwkoksim Delta.
Scientists Grow Electronics Inside the Brains of Living Mice
The technology harnesses the brain's own blood chemistry to assemble soft, light-controlled electrodes around neurons.
Overwatch's Next Season Looks Dope Except For One Thing
Season 2 adds Sierra to the roster, but also gives some spotlight to Soldier: 76
Overwatch out on Nintendo Switch 2 tomorrow, up to 60 FPS and more
We have an update on Overwatch (previously known as Overwatch 2), as Blizzard just confirmed the release date for the Nintendo Switch 2 version. As it turns out, it’ll be out tomorrow. One of the highlights of Overwatch on Nintendo Switch 2 is support for up to 60 frames per second for both docked and handheld play. Blizzard says the...
Access granted: CMS greenlights more than 150 participants for chronic care experiment
CMS greenlights more than 150 digital health companies for its ACCESS experiment, a new program for tech-backed chronic care with outcome-aligned payments.
Physical guard commits to Indiana basketball from transfer portal: Stats, highlights
The Hoosiers are adding a guard with size with the commitment of Georgia Tech transfer Jaeden Mustaf. Here's what to know.
Careful, huge spoilers are out for James Bond game 007: First Light, following an Indonesian Game Rating leak
IO Interactive's 007: First Light spoilers have surfaced online alongside other upcoming video game leaks.
Dave Chappelle stands firm through backlash and considers revisiting ‘Chappelle’s Show’
Dave Chappelle finds clarity away from the spotlight in the Ohio village where he lives. In an interview, he reflects on his comedic voice, which has sparked debate and criticism,
Rock stars to car culture showcase highlight Grand Prix of Long Beach entertainment
Kings of Chaos and Lupe Fiasco bring the music while car culture and Lifestyle Expo are family-friendly festivities at the Grand Prix of Long Beach.
NASA Night-light Imagery Tracks US Energy Transition, Global Volatility
New nighttime maps based on NASA satellite imagery are upending assumptions, revealing a world where artificial brightening and dimming have intensified over
Orlando Magic vs. Philadelphia 76ers - Live Score
View the Orlando Magic vs. Philadelphia 76ers game played on April 15, 2026. Box score, stats, play-by-play timeline, highlights, odds & more
'Metro 2039' confirmed for "Xbox First Look" show: New format will spotlight games throughout the year.
Xbox's showcase production team has been on a big tear this year, and another new format is on the horizon: starting with the return of Metro.
Kustom Entertainment, Inc. Reports Significant Financial Improvements for Fiscal Year 2025 and Files Annual Report on Form 10-K
Company Highlights $11.9 Million Improvement in Net Loss, Strategic Divestiture of Non-Core Assets, and Forbes Recognition for TicketSmarter OVERLAND PARK, KS, April 13, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Kustom Entertainment, Inc. (NASDAQ: KUST) (“Kustom” or the “Company”), a leader in live entertainment and digital ticketing, today announced its financial results for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. The Company also confirmed the filing of its Annual Report on Form 10-K with the U.S. Securities
Hubble Spies an Active Spiral
Hubble captures a luminous swirl set against the deep black of space, the barred spiral galaxy IC 486 glows with a soft, ethereal light.
Former Xbox Veteran Says Canceling The Last of Us Online Was the Right Call, Criticizes Naughty Dog and Sony for Green-lighting It in the First Place
Former Xbox Veteran Says Naughty Dog Was Right to Shut Down the Last of Us Online
Lessons from the OIG: Common Billing Errors Texas Home Health Providers Need to Know | Insights
The Texas Health and Human Services Office of Inspector General (HHSC-OIG) quarterly report highlights common billing errors and compliance issues in home healthcare settings.
PAHO’s 2025 Country Reports highlight the Region’s progress in health
Washington, D.C., April 10, 2026 (PAHO) — The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) today presented the 2025 Annual Reports of its country offices, detailing the main results of technical cooperation achieved in collaboration with governments and strategic partners across the Region.Each report highlights concrete results, impacts, and stories from the field stemming from PAHO’s technical cooperation tailored to each country’s context and health priorities.
Leaker adds support for red iPhone 18 color rumor, in a slightly weird way
Bloomberg reported back in February that Apple was considering a new deep red color option for the iPhone 18 Pro,...
9 questions radiology practices should ask when pursuing ‘disruptive innovation’
CHAMPIONSGATE, Fla. Kaihan Krippendorff, MBA, spoke on April 12 during the opening keynote of the Radiology Business Management Association’s annual meeting.
Cruise entertainment | evolution of the guest experience
How cruises are dissolving boundaries between performance, dining and design to create fully immersive, all-day entertainment experiences
Light-hitting Mariners taking advantage of Astros' shaky pitching
Every year, generally come playoff time, the question is asked: Does good pitching beat good hitting?
Can red light therapy really deliver a beauty and health glow up? Here's the science
Wellness influencers tout the therapy's power for everything from rejuvenating skin and hair to boosting longevity. Devices sold for at-home use abound. We look at the evidence behind the hype.
Can red light therapy really deliver a beauty and health glow up? Here's the science
Wellness influencers tout the therapy's power for everything from rejuvenating skin and hair to boosting longevity. Devices sold for at-home use abound. We look at the evidence behind the hype.
Can red light therapy really deliver a beauty and health glow up? Here's the science
Wellness influencers tout the therapy's power for everything from rejuvenating skin and hair to boosting longevity. Devices sold for at-home use abound. We look at the evidence behind the hype.
TCU Nutritional Sciences Expert Discusses New US Dietary Guidelines
As updated federal recommendations roll out, Samantha Davis highlights gaps between science and messaging.
In VfB masterclass: why Mittelstädt just let fly
In VfB Stuttgart’s impressive performance against Hamburger SV, Maximilian Mittelstädt was especially in the spotlight. The left-back not only delivered a flawless defensive display in the Swabians...
European chemical firms, hit hard by Iran war, to report falling Q1 earnings
European chemical companies are expected to report weaker first-quarter results, shedding light on how deep the impact from the war in the Middle East has been on an industry largely seen as one of the most exposed to it.
BUSINESS MONDAY: Spotlight on Konkapot Tree and Timber in Ashley Falls
The full-service operation provides sustainable forest management, custom sawmilling, lumber production, firewood, and tree services.
Business Briefs April 13, 2025: Business news in the Berkshires and beyond
In light of current events, Greylock’s leadership recognized the importance of awarding funds to organizations dedicated to providing human services.
Toronto Raptors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers - Live Score
View the Toronto Raptors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers game played on April 18, 2026. Box score, stats, play-by-play timeline, highlights, odds & more
Judson's Arredendo, Clark's Jones highlight Team Blue victories
Judson's Arredendo, Clark's Jones highlight Team Blue victories in the San Antonio Sports All-Star basketball games.
Trump Says Gas Prices Might Not Drop By Midterms, Highlighting G.O.P. Peril
The president has sent mixed messages on how long he expects costs to be high. Some in his party voiced fresh concern after his comments on Sunday.
8.8-inch OLED, Snapdragon 8 Gen 5: High-end compact tablet gets official launch date
Compact tablet enthusiasts have likely been awaiting more details regarding the Oppo Pad Mini tablet. As revealed by the company, the 8.8-inch OLED tablet powered by the Snapdragon 8 Gen 5 SoC is set to see the light of day later this month.
Black hole wakes after 100 million years and erupts like a cosmic volcano
A colossal “cosmic volcano” has erupted in deep space, as a supermassive black hole in galaxy J1007+3540 roars back to life after nearly 100 million years of silence. Astronomers captured stunning radio images showing fresh jets blasting outward while crashing into the intense pressure of a surrounding galaxy cluster, creating a chaotic, distorted structure stretching nearly a million light-years.
Making light spin with a gold nanorod
Controlling photon spin, or the handedness of light, is useful for storing and transmitting information. However, generating circularly polarized light typically requires complex or chiral structures. Researchers from the Tokyo University of Science show that hitting a gold nanorod slightly off-center with an electron beam causes the light around it to rotate. This method offers a simpler way to control photon spin and could accelerate the development of smaller, more efficient optical and quantum devices.
New Cold Case Task Force spotlights growing role of private forensic labs
The same DNA science being used to bring closure to families in long-unsolved cases is also increasingly being used as a frontline investigative tool.
Watch highlights from the Coevnant Health Knoxville Marathon
More than 6,500 took part in the two days of races with more than 4,000 on the Covenant Health Knoxville Marathon course on April 12, 2026, in Knoxville, Tennessee.
Yankees Social Media Spotlight: At Least Jeter’s Happy
Derek Jeter’s Michigan Wolverines won the NCAA Men’s National Championship. Nothing else of note happened this week.
Cavs score vs Wizards. Injury report, regular-season finale highlights
The Cleveland Cavaliers and Washington Wizards end the 2025-26 NBA regular season season with a matchup at Rocket Arena. The playoffs await the Cavs.
Sporting KC Weekly Schedule: April 13-19, 2026
Sporting Kansas City II News: The official source for all SKC II news, photos, videos, highlights, and more.
Astronomers detect mega-laser beam signal from 8 billion light-years away
Science News: One of the most remarkable discoveries made by astronomers in recent years is the identification of an extremely strong \"mega-laser\" signal that has t.
Apple Reportedly Testing AI Glasses in Several Frame Styles
Apple is also considering a camera setup with vertically oriented oval lenses with surrounding lights, Mark Gurman reports.
Fantastic MacBook Air with 24GB RAM at lowest ever price on Amazon right now in unmissable deal
This 15.3-inch model of the legendary lightweight laptop also comes with 512GB storage and a 2880x1864 Liquid Retina Display.
Staffing and pay concerns at the forefront of Sutter Health workers informational picket
Workers at Sutter Health hospitals in Northern California, including Sacramento, held an informational picket to highlight concerns about unsafe staffing and pay amid ongoing contract negotiations.
Nebraska baseball loses series 2-1 on the road against Oregon
No. 19 Nebraska baseball (27-9, 12-3) hit the road and lost a Big Ten series to Oregon (25-10, 9-5), dropping two games in the weekend outing. The series was highlighted by a lightning delay Friday night, three Case Sanderson home runs and a close rubber match on Sunday.
Health expert explains link between women's hormones, stress
Functional medicine practitioner Jennifer Gularson highlights how physiological shifts like menopause can trigger significant stress and hormone imbalances.
Brewers score vs Nationals today, live game updates, highlights, lineups
The Brewers will try to avoid being swept by the Nationals on Sunday afternoon at American Family Field.
Black Maternal Health Week highlights disparities, solutions at Hampton Roads conference
Held as part of the national awareness week from April 11 to 17, the conference brought together doctors, nurses, social workers and midwife advocates to address inequities in maternal health care and outcomes.
Student-led sports business conference brings industry leaders to campus
University of Illinois event highlights careers in athletics, media and analytics through panels and networking.
The Masters 2026 - final round LIVE! Latest updates, highlights, scores as Rory McIlroy chases major victory at Augusta National
Rory McIlroy looks to become first back-to-back winner of The Masters since Tiger Woods; coverage is live from 4.30pm on Sky Sports Golf, with Featured Groups, Featured Holes and extra coverage on Sky Sports+
2026 Greenville Heart Walk shines spotlight on survivors and heart health
The Heart Walk will be holding their first walk in Spartanburg County on Friday, April 17, at Fifth Third Park.
New York Jets Flight Connections 04/12/26
Happy Sunday, Jets fans! Here are your links for the last day of this April weekend. Nick Faria – Jets have another potential trade partner in the first round Nick Faria – One line from scout highlights Jets’ real draft ‘plan’ Stefan Stelling – Slipping WR prospect could fall into Jets’ laps at No. 16 […]
Sutton's predictions: Sunderland v Tottenham
What's Roberto de Zerbi going to do with Tottenham and how will he set them up? The whole situation is just odd, with De Zerbi securing a five-year contract despite only hanging around for more than two years at one of his previous eight clubs. Sunderland's form at the Stadium of Light has dipped a bit since they lost their unbeaten home record against Liverpool in February, but the Black Cats will be buoyant after beating Newcastle last time out.
Pope Leo for president someday? Don't even think about it
A recent meeting between Pope Leo XIV and Democratic strategist David Axelrod at the Vatican sparks some intrigue and slight political speculation.
Michigan group spotlights Black Maternal Health Week and the risks Black women face giving birth
Black women are 3 to 4 times more likely than their white counterparts to die of childbirth-related complications. The disparity is unchanged even when factoring in education and income.
Sunderland vs Tottenham Hotspur – Match preview and team news
Roberto De Zerbi makes his Premier League return as Tottenham Hotspur visit Sunderland at the Stadium of Light today.The Italian manager replaces Igor Tudor after a dismal run left Spurs one point abo...
Sports Highlights
Chris Hayashi: Chris Hayashi, a senior on the Lake Oswego boys track team, put in one of the best efforts of the season during his team’s meet against Oregon City […]
Photo highlights from the Coachella Music and Arts Festival
INDIO, Calif. (AP) — The Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival, in its 25th edition, returns to the Empire Polo Club.
H.S. sports for Saturday, April 11
Scores and highlights from across the state
Plymouth Maple Fest sheds light on the maple syrup business
People from across the Plymouth community gathered on Saturday for the annual Maple Fest, which celebrates hand-made maple syrup across Sheboygan County.
Photo highlights from the Coachella Music and Arts Festival
INDIO, Calif. (AP) — The Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival, in its 25th edition, returns to the Empire Polo Club.
110,000-year-old discovery rewrites human history: Neanderthals and Homo sapiens worked together
The first-ever published research on Tinshemet Cave reveals that Neanderthals and Homo sapiens in the mid-Middle Paleolithic Levant not only coexisted but actively interacted, sharing technology, lifestyles, and burial customs. These interactions fostered cultural exchange, social complexity, and behavioral innovations, such as formal burial practices and the symbolic use of ochre for decoration. The findings suggest that human connections, rather than isolation, were key drivers of technological and cultural advancements, highlighting the Levant as a crucial crossroads in early human history.
A Look At Madison Square Garden Entertainment (MSGE) Valuation After New Impossible Foods Partnership
Partnership with Impossible Foods puts food trends in focus for MSGE stock Madison Square Garden Entertainment (MSGE) is in the spotlight after announcing a multiyear partnership with Impossible Foods that introduces a dedicated plant-based concession concept inside The Garden. The agreement ties Impossible Foods branding to New York Knicks and New York Rangers home games and expands plant-based menu options across concourses and premium areas, giving investors a fresh angle on how MSGE...
Spotlighting local women in business
4 share their stories, offer tips for success
Mid-Missouri event offers free health services, brake light repairs and meals
Tallgrass Collective hosted a free clinic offering health services, vehicle brake light repairs, food and clothes Saturday from 11 a.m. to 2 p.m.
2026 Greenville Heart Walk shines spotlight on survivors and heart health
“The purpose, the meaning of this Heart Walk is just community.”
Watch: Crusaders thump Ports to move off bottom
Watch highlights as XX beat XX in the Irish Premiership.
DrPH Student Spotlight: Victoria Adewumi | Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Victoria shares her experience in the DrPH Program and her work advancing community health worker leadership and policy.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
San Jose faces legal heat over mental health crisis calls
A group of civil rights organizations is ratcheting up the legal pressure on San Jose over longstanding complaints that too often mental health-related emergency calls receive a police response — rather than assistance from mental health professionals.
Apple Highlights Photos Shot on iPhone During NASA's Mission to Moon
As we previously reported, astronauts aboard NASA's Orion spacecraft used the iPhone 17 Pro Max to take selfies of themselves with the Earth in the background during the Artemis II mission around the far side of the Moon last week. Now that the crew members have safely returned to Earth, Apple's CEO Tim Cook and marketing chief Greg Joswiak have both turned to social media to congratulate them on their successful mission and highlight the iPhone's involvement.
How AI used Adobe Lightroom like a human, only faster
OpenAI's Codex AI coding service worked out how to use Adobe Lightroom like a human, denoising 50 photos without an API or plugin.
Apple @ Work: How to add an existing Mac to Apple Business Manager without wiping it
A new open source script called add2abm allows IT administrators to retroactively add configured Macs to Apple Business Manager without erasing the hard drive.
New York Jets Flight Connections 04/11/26
Happy Saturday, Jets fans! Here are your links to kick off this weekend. Jack Bell – TE Kenyon Sadiq Could Be a ‘Really Interesting’ Pick for the Jets Antwan Staley – Jets still high on Mason Taylor, but Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq could be draft option Michael Nania – Should Jets seize chance to trade […]
Wichita Falls Community’s Choice Awards business spotlight: Bullinger Wealth Management
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Tallahassee Community’s Choice Awards business spotlight: Audio Rehab Lab
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Best of the Bay Community’s Choice Awards business spotlight: The Native Cafe
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Best of Bay Community’s Choice Awards business spotlight: Bay Radiology/Women’s Imaging Center
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Bucks County Community’s Choice Awards business spotlight: Inner Circle Physical Therapy & Myofascial Release Center
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Best of Central Florida Community’s Choice Awards business spotlight: Bartow Ford
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Best of Blue Ridge Community’s Choice Awards business spotlight: Harvested Dreams
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Finest on the Emerald Coast Community’s Choice Awards business spotlight: Peaden Air Conditioning, Plumbing & Electrical
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Fort Myers Community’s Choice Awards business spotlight: Gavins Ace Hardware
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Burlington Community’s Choice Awards business spotlight: Inkology Tattoo Studio
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Stark County Community’s Choice Awards business spotlight: Quality Heating & Cooling
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Best of Your Hometown Community’s Choice Awards business spotlight: Pracht Law Firm
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