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Poll finds energy costs will play prominently in 2026 political campaigns
'This polling paints a clear picture: American households and small businesses are demanding relief.'
Ebola, chemical plants and health, hantavirus, common colds, heat and more
As they say, bugs have ears. Public health has had a relentless May. Chemical plant (near) explosions, Ebola, hantavirus, and that's before you even get to the usual suspects: common colds, heat, and ticks. Here’s an attempt to keep you up to speed and, more importantly, what it means for you and your community. But first, an announcement: World Cup The World Cup starts in 15 days (not like anyone is counting down), and we are hanging TVs in the Health Security Operations Center. It’s going to be a gorgeous, chaotic celebration of basically every culture on earth. And it’s going to take a team effort—from communities to individuals, from public health to health care—to keep people healthy. That’s where you come in. If you’re going to the games or live within 30 miles of a stadium, we would love to hear from you. Sign up for a weekly survey here. Thanks to the more than 1,280 people who have already signed up…you will be hearing from us soon!! Global disease “weather report” Hantavirus: Two more cases The global count of cruise ship passengers with hantavirus has now increased to 13 cases (11 confirmed), with three deaths. The two new cases are overseas and among people who were already quarantining: A crew member in the Netherlands. A Spanish national passenger who was quarantining at home tested positive through daily monitoring. They are now in a biocontainment unit. In the U.S., everyone remains negative. There may be more cases, given that the incubation period of hantavirus (the time from exposure to infection) is 45 days. But this week, we will reach a major milestone: the median incubation window is 18 days, and that will pass on May 29. What this means for you: Your risk from this cruise ship outbreak remains essentially nil at this point. Ebola rages on in Central Africa Big thanks to Dr. Craig Spencer, a humanitarian physician who has treated and survived Ebola, for jumping in to provide the YLE community with an update. Craig, take it from here… The combined confirmed and suspected Ebola cases in DRC are now more than 1,000. All signs are pointing to a very long and catastrophic outbreak in Central Africa: This is a vast undercount. We know this because the test positivity rate is hovering around 50%, only 20% of contacts are being traced (and in some areas, no contacts at all), and more cases keep popping up with no known connection. This all points to widespread and undetected community transmission. This is in only a week of detection. Compared to previous outbreaks, the growth is very fast, as the huge West Africa outbreak in 2016 was first detected at 49 cases and rose to 208 cases a month later. It took four months for that outbreak to reach the size of the current one in the DR Congo. The cases are spread out across 16 health zones. There are now multiple epicenters, making containment very difficult. Next door in Uganda, the case count is seven. While this number is low compared to DRC, a concerning development is that two health care workers recently tested positive with uncertain exposure histories. If they weren’t treating known Ebola cases, this means it’s spreading undetected in Uganda as well. On the ground, backlash, including the burning of health centers, has emerged, a pattern seen in nearly every outbreak and rooted in deep community distrust. It often stems from outside actors working in communities without fully understanding or addressing local priorities. Affected populations may recognize the severity of Ebola while still holding other concerns as more pressing, such as where their loved ones are buried. Community trust is essential to an effective response, but difficult to build during an active emergency. It is best established long before a crisis begins. U.S. priorities are made clear, and may backfire. The U.S. Administration has shown that its first priority is keeping Ebola out, with helping end the outbreak in the DRC a secondary concern. That's meant travel restrictions broader than anything we've imposed before — covering travelers from across the region, and reportedly some green card holders and permanent residents as well. For example, just these past two days, news broke that high-risk American travelers will be subject to a mandatory quarantine in Kenya before they are allowed to return. If an American is infected, the U.S. government plans to send them to a hospital it is standing up from scratch in Kenya. (Currently, Americans who were in the area are allowed to return but are diverted to three airports—Houston, Atlanta, and DC—for further screening.) Past administrations have used travel notices and stepped-up screening; this goes much further. At first blush, these strict precautions may sound prudent. But this approach could backfire in three ways: Restrictions this blunt give people every reason to hide where they’ve been and whom they’ve been near — making the people we most need to find harder to track, not easier. They also breed a false sense that this is someone else’s problem. But diseases are humbling. They find the small cracks in even the most impenetrable-seeming defenses. Lives lost. There is no treatment for this Ebola strain, which means survival depends heavily on the quality of the health system. We have that system in the States, but we are choosing not to use it for infected Americans. This is unbelievable and infuriating. (See a deeper dive from me here.) The only real way to lower the risk to Americans — and everyone else — is to end the outbreak in the DRC and across the region. What this means for you: If you have travel plans to this region, it’s time to cancel them. This is a high-risk situation in Central Africa, and CDC released a Level 4 Travel Advisory. There is also great uncertainty if and when the Administration will let you back in. To the general public in the U.S., your risk remains very, very low right now. U.S. disease “weather report” Ticks: past peak season? Good news, especially for people in the Northeast and Midwest: tick numbers continue to decline. Though we are at the peak of the season, this unusually early year is trending favorably. Heat-related illnesses in the North Heat risk is certainly not blanketing the entire country yet, but this week it will be moderate in the Midwest and the Southeast. What this means for you: Be sure to check the CDC HeatRisk tool. A red day isn’t the best day for that soccer game for a kid with asthma, and a stretch of orange days is a great time to check on your elderly neighbor. Common colds surging As far as respiratory viruses go, the only thing really going around right now is the common cold. It is higher this year than last year, but should peak very soon before returning this fall. Spotlight: Chemical plants Over the weekend, YLE California covered the serious situation that unfolded around a chemical plant in Orange County, California. Thankfully, the worst-case scenario (a chemical explosion) was mitigated, but only through luck. The health implications in a densely populated area could have been catastrophic. As the situation was winding down, another chemical explosion struck Washington State. This one was fatal. Health officials say the risk to surrounding residents from chemicals in the air and ground remains low, though the community deserves far greater clarity. Clean air and clean water consistently rank as Americans’ top public health concerns — yet when chemical disasters strike, communities are too often met with reassurances rather than transparency and accountability. Residents near the 2023 East Palestine, Ohio train derailment, for example, are still waiting to understand the long-term impact on their health, with few clear answers. What this means for you: Many are wondering if facilities processing potentially dangerous materials are in their neighborhoods. This interactive map allows you to enter your ZIP code and see all facilities monitored by the EPA, including any violations. Good news Ebola vaccines and treatment for the Bundibugyo species are in development. Two vaccine platforms are being explored, at least one of which may be deployable in as little as 2 months. One vaccine is being developed by Oxford, and the other uses the same biotechnology as the FDA-approved Zaire species of Ebola. (It may provide cross-protection, but it’s unclear at this point.) On the treatment side, two promising monoclonal antibody cocktails are likely to be deployed, though doses are limited and logistical hurdles remain significant challenges. Anni over at The Biotech Tea had a great explainer about the Ebola vaccine gap, if you want to read more. [ The Biotech Tea The Ebola vaccine gap, reading vessel damage, & the Makary exit 🗝️ Paid subscribers get the Biotech Term of the Week at $30/year (~$2.50/month). I try to keep it intentionally accessible, but if cost is ever a barrier, send me a message. A few people asked about expensing your subscription, so I put together a short email template… Read more 6 days ago · 10 likes · Annicka Evans, PhD ](https://www.thebiotechtea.com/p/the-ebola-vaccine-gap-reading-vessel?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web) Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) has been officially renamed polyendocrine metabolic ovarian syndrome (PMOS), following more than a decade of debate and input from roughly 22,000 clinicians, researchers, and patients worldwide. This is good because the old name was medically misleading, leading to patients without visible cysts being dismissed or overlooked entirely. The WHO estimates that 70% of people with the condition remain undiagnosed. A more accurate name should improve recognition, reduce stigma, and ultimately help the millions of people living with this condition get diagnosed and treated sooner. Poll Loading... Bottom line Public health situations are everywhere right now. Staying healthy takes public health professionals and systems working tirelessly behind the scenes and each of us showing up for our neighbors and communities. Love, YLE Big thanks to Ed Nirenberg for staying on top of the Ebola vaccines, Hannah Totte for all the figures, Dr. Craig Spencer for the Ebola insight, and Dr. Matt Willis for covering the chemical situation in CA. Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE) comprises a team of experts, ranging from physicians to immunologists to epidemiologists to nutritionists, working together with one goal: to “Translate” ever-evolving public health science so that people are well-equipped to make evidence-based decisions. YLE suite of newsletters reaches over 475,000 people across more than 132 countries. This newsletter is free to everyone, thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members. To support the effort, subscribe or upgrade below: Subscribe
Many Latino voters have turned away from Trump, but Democrats aren't necessarily winning them over, new poll finds
Hispanic voters are heading into the midterms feeling economically squeezed and increasingly skeptical of the direction of the country — but Democrats are not necessarily running away with their support, a new poll by UnidosUS finds.
Editorial: CTU rank-and-file finds its nerve and votes down dues hike to fund politics
This internal vote looks less like simple sticker shock than a warning from members that CTU leadership has drifted too far from the classroom and too deep into politics.
Parental mental health — not medication — drives autism correlation, study finds
A new study finds no evidence that antidepressant medications cause autism.
Plan your weekend with the best entertainment events for May 29-June 4
Find your weekend adventure: \
Craig Kimbrel’s Rays Debut Pushes Him Closer to MLB Record
Journeyman closer Craig Kimbrel suddenly finds himself close to an all-time record tied by Rich Hill in 2025.
Awe-inspiring nature helps people connect to science, study finds
A new study finds that when people engage in participatory science activities that involve awe-inspiring natural phenomena, such as an eclipse, they more closely identify with science and feel a greater ...
Prized rookie Awa Fam finding footing as Storm host Mystics
The Awa Fam era has started in Seattle.
NASA Calibration Instrument Installed on International Space Station
NASA’s Calibration Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory Pathfinder (CLARREO Pathfinder) instrument was installed onto the International Space
Trying burgers from Culver's, Freddy's, Sonic to find the best chain
I ordered burgers from staple Midwest chains Culver's, Freddy's, and Sonic. After tasting and reviewing all three, one stood out as the best burger.
NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory Initiates Largest Change In 70 Years, Solicits Bids To Replace Caltech As Its Manager
A booming industry is proving that private enterprise can make serious strides in space, and JPL is looking to find cheaper ways to do what it's always done.
Bari Weiss: Think For Yourself, Not By Yourself
When we launched The Free Press, the plan was simple: Tell the truth plainly, and let readers come to their own conclusions. I thought there would be a sizable enough group of people who would pay the cost of one coffee a month to read high-quality news and opinion journalism. But what happened next surprised even me. Yes, you came for the stories—for the investigations, essays, debates, interviews, podcasts, and arguments. But over the past few years, you also found one another. I’ve watched strangers become friends in the lobby before our debates. I’ve seen people trade numbers after live recordings of Honestly, launch businesses after Free Press dinners, fall in love after our meetups—even get married (!?), and say some version of the same sentence over and over again: I thought I was the only one. We live in the most connected age in history, and yet, millions of people feel isolated, alienated, politically homeless, and starved for real conversation. We have followers and no neighbors. Algorithms instead of interlocutors. Our social media feeds are like troughs, but what we really need is a table to gather around. The Free Press is a publication, yes, but it is also a gathering place for independent minds. So today, I’m thrilled to share our new investment in you. We are launching a new world of community experiences for our paid subscribers, designed to bring _Free Press_ers together online and in real life. Introducing Our Community Launch The Free Press Forum Our new digital home for paid subscribers, the Forum, is now live. This is where _Free Press_ers can meet, debate, recommend, organize, joke, argue, and converse like civilized people. Imagine that. This is not social media as you know it. No bots. No algorithmic rage bait. No performative nonsense. Just smart people talking to one another. Inside the Forum, you’ll find conversations on the things our readers already care about most: the issues of the day, recommendations (books, music, travel), work and networking, parenting, dating, and where to find your people—online and in real life. Jump in! Introduce yourself and join the first conversations in the Free Press Forum here. You’ll also find announcements from us (paid subscribers are first to hear!) and our writers, hosting regular Ask Me Anythings (AMAs)—live conversations where subscribers can ask questions, push back, and continue the discussion beyond the page. This Thursday, subscribers can chat with our brilliant reporter, culture vulture, and co-founder Suzy Weiss. Friday, I’ll be lending you Nellie Bowles, queen of TGIF, to answer subscriber questions live. Read more about The Forum directly from Nellie here. The Free Press Supper Club The best part of being a _Free Press_er is meeting other _Free Press_ers. So we’re inviting you all to dinner to do just that. It’s part salon, part blind date, part old-fashioned dinner party. Here’s how it works: You answer a short questionnaire. We match you with a small group of _Free Press_ers in your city. We send you to a great restaurant. You show up for supper. The rest is up to you. Your next best friend, co-founder, or future spouse may already be waiting at the table. Learn more and sign up here for our first Supper Club in 12 cities in three countries taking place on June 18. Don’t see your city? Raise your hand if you’d like a Free Press Supper Club near you. Yes, St. Louis—we hear you. The Free Press Retreats and Excursions We’re also building something new for 2027: immersive experiences for Free Press readers who want to continue the conversation trailside, poolside, or around a fire long after dessert. The Free Press Retreat will be an intimate long weekend built around big ideas, outdoor adventure, great meals, and the kinds of discussions that happen when curious people spend meaningful time together. Bring your spouse, your parents, your children—or come on your own. Free Press Excursions will take us farther afield: curated trips with Free Press writers and contributors exploring places that help explain the world we live in, from the battlefields of Gettysburg and Normandy to the Vatican in Rome. We’ll share more details this summer. If you’d like an early look when these experiences open for registration, show your interest here.**A Note to Our Subscribers** These new offerings exist because of our paying subscribers. If you’re already one: Thank you. You built this. And you keep us going. If you’ve been reading us for free and wondering whether to join, this is a very good time. For a short while only, we’re offering a rare 20 percent discount for you to join our community as a paid subscriber. You’ll unlock everything we publish, plus exclusive access to our members-only Forum, Supper Clubs, and more insider perks. Thinking for yourself shouldn’t mean thinking by yourself. See you there. —Bari
A Marine mom’s mission to protect service members’ mental health | FOX 13 Tampa Bay
After losing her son, Sgt. Anthony Patrick Muhlstadt, to suicide, Tanya Mort is honoring his life by helping service members and veterans find mental health support.
Find out which Louisiana city was named among the South's most iconic music towns
What makes this music town so special? It's more than just the music.
KeySmart’s new Android Find Hub wallet tracker is faster, has 2 years of battery life
Wallet trackers might be the most useful devices you can use with Android’s Find Hub network, and KeySmart’s new option...
WATCH: Family finds missing dogs after losing business in Opa-locka fire
WATCH: Family finds missing dogs after losing business in Opa-locka fire
Trump will see doctors for a medical exam. What the public finds out is up to him
It will be President Donald Trump's fourth publicly disclosed medical exam since he returned to office for a second term, and comes as he tries to project strength ahead of midterm elections that will test his sway with voters.
Trump will see doctors for a medical exam. What the public finds out is up to him
It will be President Donald Trump's fourth publicly disclosed medical exam since he returned to office for a second term, and comes as he tries to project strength ahead of midterm elections that will test his sway with voters.
Mercedes-Benz now has an Android Find Hub key tracker built by Chipolo [Gallery]
Chipolo is teaming up with Mercedes-Benz for a new key tracker that supports Android and iPhone networks through the Find Hub, Find My apps.
Study finds voting can help you live longer
Voting is typically associated with politics and civil engagement, but a new study finds evidence that voting helps older people live longer.
Advance directives in electronic health records linked to less burdensome end-of-life care and hospital death, study finds | The Roger and Flo Lipitz Center to Advance Policy in Aging and Disability
Documentation of advanced directives at least six months before death led to less burdensome medical interventions.
How influential is a championship run on a city?
The Garden is overflowing with energy. Could it find a route over to the Bronx?
One map shows the highest-paying job in every state
Business Insider used Bureau of Labor Statistics data to find the best-paying job on average for all 50 states and Washington, DC.
Here are more than 20 festivals you can attend in Louisville this year
Festival season in Kentucky is here. Find your fun with this guide to over 20 summer festivals in Louisville.
A sleep-time ‘sweet spot’ is linked to healthy aging, study finds
Turns out 6.4 to 7.8 hours of sleep a night might be ideal. Here are some tips on how to get the “just right” amount.
Is it getting windier in Kentucky?
Is it getting windier? Long-time listener Barry Zalph thinks it is, at least in Louisville. And he’s not the only one. Redditors and local reporters have noticed a recent uptick in the region’s windstorms, too. But does that point to any larger trends in windiness? And if so, what could be causing it? We talked to meteorologist and extreme weather specialist Scott Gunter to find out. Plus, we dig into whether Tornado Alley is shifting into Kentucky as the climate warms. This episode is part of Nature Quest, our monthly listener-driven segment about climate and the environment. Have a question for us? Send a voice memo to shortwave@npr.org with your name, location and what you’re noticing in the environment around you… it could be our next Nature Quest!Interested in more weather and wind science? Email us your question at shortwave@npr.org.Listen to every episode of Short Wave sponsor-free and support our work at NPR by signing up for Short Wave+ at plus.npr.org/shortwave.
NFL Player News
Find all the latest fantasy football news, reports, transactions, videos, predictions, and more right here on NBC Sports - Rotoworld.
Holiday weekend brings business to the beach
Signs of rebuilding are still easy to find, like hotels under construction and homes in the process of being elevated.
Teoscar Hernandez Finding His Swing Following Inconsistent Start
Los Angeles Dodgers left fielder Teoscar Hernandez got off to a shaky start to 2026, but found his stride during the Dodgers’ road trip. Since the first game of the Dodgers’ nine-game road trip May 15, Hernandez is batting .344…
New pilot program helps educators recognize behavioral health issues, offers resources to find help
A new program is educating educators to identify behavioral health issues in students as the mental health crisis among children continues to grow.
Whole health approach cuts chronic pain disruption in veterans after 12 months
A new study finds that an interdisciplinary, individualized approach to pain management, including coaching support and health goal planning, may reduce the impact of chronic pain on veterans. The findings ...
Scientists find a place where time moves backward
Physicists in South Africa ran the math on collapsing neutron stars and landed somewhere odd. Researchers from Durban University of Technology and the University of KwaZulu-Natal found that inside the...
Tech, Media & Telecom Roundup: Market Talk
Find insight on NetEase, Lenovo, Mitsubishi Electric and more in the latest Market Talks covering technology, media and telecom..
Unpacked: How a tribal health clinic has helped patients find success managing diabetes
A tribal health clinic in Lapwai, Idaho, has helped patients find success managing diabetes and prediabetes. NWPB’s Rachel Sun joined host Connor Henricksen to discuss.
The Bites and Boutiques of Bellevue's Historic Business District
Take a walk down Fairfield Avenue for vintage finds, sweet eats, and other gifts and goodies.
Why moving about is key for children's health
Children are less physically active than they used to be. Scientists are finding effective ways to encourage children to move more, leaving lasting benefits on their health.
Widow and widower find new love, good health in their 80s
For two widowed neighbors, a simple walk down the street led to something neither of them expected: a second chance at love.
Widow and widower find new love, good health in their 80s
For two widowed neighbors, a simple walk down the street led to something neither of them expected: a second chance at love.
Widow and widower find new love, good health in their 80s
For two widowed neighbors, a simple walk down the street led to something neither of them expected: a second chance at love.
10 Takeaways: The Avalanche Keep Finding Ways to Lose
Utter shock and disappointment poured out of the Colorado Avalanche locker room after getting humiliated once again. The reasons why […] The post 10 Takeaways: The Avalanche Keep Finding Ways to Lose appeared first on Colorado Hockey Now.
SGA, Thunder need to 'find ways' to get Chet Holmgren better looks on offense
Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander talks about what he can do to help get Chet Holmgren more involved offensively after Sunday night's Game 4 loss to the Spurs.
Politics and Investing Don’t Mix: Why Your Political Affiliation Could Be Hurting Your Returns
n a contest between intellect and political identity, the latter all too often wins out, a new study finds.
Wordle today: The answer and hints for May 25, 2026
Here are some tips and tricks to help you find the answer to "Wordle" #1801.
Yoga and meditation show promise for gut health
This systematic review found that yoga and Buddhist meditation were associated with favorable gut microbiota and metabolite profiles in four human studies involving healthy adults. However, because participants largely followed vegetarian or vegan diets and no randomized controlled trials were included, the findings cannot prove that meditation alone reshapes the gut microbiome.
How microbes can boost protein content and health benefits in fermented foods
US research recently found that microbial proteins significantly contribute to the protein content of fermented foods, like yogurt and cheese. We explore the findings with one of the study authors, who tells us that microorganisms do not just help foods ferment but also boost their nutritional profile and potentially have health impacts. These food-fermenting microbes raised protein levels, reaching up to 11% of the total protein content, making up 60% of the identified proteins.
Filtered water at specific ages could add months to your lifespan decades later, new study finds
A new study finds that exposure to water filtration systems early in life can extend a person's lifespan by an average of 3.2 months, researchers say.
Repeal of EPA’s endangerment finding won’t change the realities of chronic disease
We can expect chronic disease rates to worsen as greenhouse gas emissions trend upward and contribute to more frequent and intense climate impacts like extreme heat and wildfires.
Seattle’s top summer events, concerts, outdoor movies and more in 2026
With this guide, you'll find tips for a perfect Seattle summer: arts and entertainment, signature Seattle-area celebrations, World Cup events and more.
How to have a perfect Seattle summer
With this guide, you'll find tips for a perfect Seattle summer: arts and entertainment, signature Seattle-area celebrations, World Cup events and more.
Finding hope in troubling times with poetry and science
The Poets for Science Gathering this fall at Kent State is something of a cross between an academic conference and a festival.
Finding hope in troubling times with poetry and science
The Poets for Science Gathering this fall at Kent State is something of a cross between an academic conference and a festival.
Poll of judges, lawyers sees grave Trump threat to rule of law
A new survey finds deep concern about presidential overreach, persecution of enemies and other unchecked abuses of power. The poll shows the stakes in November.
Trot My Tot profile
Scott Klipper, 39, vibe coded Trot My Tot, a platform where parents can find short-term nannies for one-off gigs.
What will people remember about you after you die? Thinking about your legacy now could be good for you
Research shows that considering how we will be remembered when we die can help us improve our mental health and find more meaning during our lives – including if we are still young.
Health and safety concerns of chemical tank emergency in Garden Grove
Elaine Bernal, a chemistry and biochemistry lecturer at California State University, Long Beach, discusses the ideas firefighters could be considering to find a solution.
WNEP
Welcome to the WNEP-TV YouTube channel. Here you'll find some great stories from across northeastern and central Pennsylvania, as well as, entertaining and informative original content. So if you want to stay in the loop with everything new on the WNEP-TV channel, don't forget to SUBSCRIBE and hit that NOTIFICATION BELL.
AI scans 400,000 Reddit posts and finds hidden Ozempic side effects
By analyzing over 400,000 Reddit posts, researchers discovered that users of popular GLP-1 weight-loss drugs frequently discussed unexpected symptoms like menstrual irregularities, chills, and hot flashes. The findings suggest AI could turn social media into a powerful early-warning system for spotting side effects that clinical trials may miss.
Business briefs | Students earn scholarships to learn construction trades
Find out what is happening in the local business community.
What to know about sepsis: Life-threatening but hard to spot
Consider sepsis an invisible threat. It kills about 350,000 Americans a year and may cause nearly one-fifth of deaths globally. But you won’t find it on any “leading causes of death” lists.
Health Department releases food inspection reports for week of May 10
Find out how your favorite restaurant, convenience store and other food establishments in Jefferson County are performing on Health Department inspections.
Bond breakout? Big effects of bad data. Immigration and thermostatic politics & dad-chat is coming for dad-books.
Thank you for opening your Chartbook email. Anna Airy, A Shell Forge at a National Projectile Factory, Hackney Marshes, London, 1918 Bond breakout - John Authers Across the developed markets, bond markets are staging a slow-motion car wreck. Looking at the drastic moves in the US, Japan, the UK and France, Barclays’ Ajay Rajadhyaksha commented: “Last week, long bonds broke. Not in one country. In all of them. Simultaneously. Four countries. Four different political systems. Four different central banks. But the same trade — “get me out of duration!”” Each country has its own contributing political problems, but the uniformity of the shift out of long-term bonds with high duration makes clear that something broader is afoot. For Rajadhyaksha, it is “simple and uncomfortable.” The developed world “has too much debt, too little fiscal discipline, and no political appetite for fixing either.” If there’s a trigger, it has been the Iran war and the resulting shock to oil supply. Source: Bloomberg G7 countries are now borrowing at rates that were enjoyed by EM in the early 2020s For contributing subscribers only. Subscribe Trade between China and Russia has grown in recent years For contributing subscribers only. Subscribe Big effects of bad data A decade ago nearly nine in ten Americans, when approached, agreed to fill out the Current Population Survey, which is administered to about 60,000 households each month and asks about, among other things, employment. Fewer than seven in ten do so now (see chart 1). For the Consumer Expenditure Survey, which tries to capture 3,700 households monthly, the response rate is down from 68% to 40%. … When the information becomes less reliable, investment decisions get more difficult to make. Some may be delayed, creating a potential drag on the economy. A new working paper by Nicholas Bloom of Stanford University, Erica Groshen, former head of the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) now at Cornell University, and Duncan Hobbs and Michael Strain of the American Enterprise Institute, a think-tank, hazards an estimate. Preserving trust in “the integrity and quality of official statistics”, the authors claim, generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the BLS, the agency with an annual budget of $700m that is responsible for many of these data. To arrive at their conclusion the quartet analysed an ignoble episode in the BLS’s recent history. On August 1st 2025 Donald Trump sacked Erika McEntarfer, appointed as the agency’s commissioner by his predecessor, Joe Biden. The president alleged, without evidence, that the BLS’s steep downward revision to recent jobs numbers had been “RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad”. In fact, it was the wanton dismissal that looked bad in the eyes of many observers. In the following seven days there was a 50% leap, relative to the week before, in the average value of the index of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), which tracks the number of articles mentioning such uncertainty that are published daily in American newspapers. This was a discernible jump even when compared to the chaos caused by Mr Trump’s trade war in April 2025 and his real one in Iran in the past two months (see chart 2). Based on Mr Bloom’s earlier study with other colleagues of the EPU’s impact on business investment, industrial production and employment, the authors estimate that the jump reduced American GDP by over $100bn (0.3%) and non-farm payrolls by 168,000 (0.1%). Source: The Economist Immigration and thermostatic politics (Sarah O’Connor in the FT) A strange thing happened a year and a half ago. No sooner had Americans elected Donald Trump as president on an explicitly anti-immigration platform than US public opinion began to swing much more favourably towards immigration. … to political scientists who study “thermostatic” politics, this development is no surprise at all. Public opinion often moves against the prevailing party, especially if they are perceived to have gone “too far” in one direction. The phenomenon was first explored in the 1990s with reference to fiscal policy, but in recent years it has been particularly evident in the realm of immigration policy. While these swings in opinion polls can make it seem as if people don’t know their own minds, they can be a useful democratic check on governments by sending bright flashing warning lights when policies stray too far from the public’s comfort zone. The problem comes when politicians misinterpret those signals. When people tell pollsters they want less immigration, or think it is bad for the country overall (or the converse), they are often expressing an opinion about how things appear to be going in that moment relative to their preferences, rather than a deep shift in their underlying views. According to Alexander Kustov, a political scientist, most Americans’ views are quite stable and moderate: they support immigration that is controlled and in the national interest, and oppose flows that are disorderly or under-enforced. In the US, he argues the Trump administration over-interpreted dissatisfaction with high immigration under Joe Biden, and implemented policies that went too far for many voters. “People don’t necessarily change their idea about their ideal immigration policy, but they can react to what the government is currently doing,” he told me. “A lot of people are not happy with what the Trump administration are doing — right now we’re not talking about border enforcement, we’re talking about people not just getting harassed, but killed.” But similarly, he added, pro-immigration advocates would be making a mistake to interpret the recent, more favourable swing towards immigration as a deep-seated ideological shift in attitudes. The recent history of UK immigration policy offers another cautionary tale. After the 2016 Brexit referendum, public concern about immigration fell. This was partly because net migration statistics declined, but also because people felt a sense of catharsis and control, says Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, a think-tank. By 2019, the public ranked immigration as only the ninth biggest issue of concern, according to Ipsos polling. But when the Conservative government liberalised visa routes for students and care workers between 2019 and 2022, that helped net migration to surge. And so, too, did public concern. Today’s Labour government has implemented another sharply restrictive turn in immigration policy. As Kustov and researcher Caitlyn Yates argue, thermostatic public opinion should be a useful check on politicians. Instead it seems to have helped to magnify the pendulum swing in the UK. The government over-interprets and overreacts to a change in public opinion, which reacts in turn, prompting a sudden swing the other way. Source: Financial Times HEY READERS, THANK YOU for opening the Chartbook email. I hope it brightens your day. I enjoy putting out the newsletter, but tbh, what keeps this flow going is the generosity of those readers who clicked the subscription button. If you are persuaded to click, please consider the annual subscription of $50. It is both better value for you and a much better deal for me, as it involves only one credit card charge. Why feed the payments companies if we don’t have to. Subscribe Anna Airy, Shop for Machining 15-Inch Shells: Singer Manufacturing Company, Clydebank, Glasgow, 1918 Racing for a vaccine … we have been here before! The deadly Ebola outbreak in two African countries driven by a virus species with no vaccine has triggered an urgent search for a potential jab, in a test of troubled global efforts to avert threats posed by emerging diseases. A World Health Organization advisory group is due to would meet on Tuesday to recommend candidate jabs to prioritise for clinical trials, the global health body said. It will assess data including an analysis by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (Cepi), which was set up after failures in the international response to a previous Ebola crisis. The latest Ebola outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda has infected hundreds of people and killed more than 80, health authorities say. Cepi’s reaction will be a crucial indicator of its progress towards its wider goal of producing vaccines for pandemic threats in just 100 days, despite steep cuts to international health funding. “If there was ever a time that we could show the world why Cepi is needed and show the world why the 100-day mission is needed, it’s now,” Nicole Lurie, the organisation’s executive director for preparedness and response, told the FT. “We’re happy to accept that responsibility, but obviously we need help from partners — particularly financial help in the long run.” DR Congo and Uganda would make the final decision on whether to press ahead with any vaccine candidates endorsed for clinical trials by the WHO experts, the global health body said. “Other ethical and community acceptability issues will be considered,” said the WHO, which declared the latest outbreak a public health emergency of international concern on Sunday. “This will be important to make sure that the trial, if it happens, will be adequately communicated to the population.” Lurie said Cepi had provided information from a survey of research teams and companies working on drugs that might be effective against the Bundibugyo virus behind the outbreak. The organisation hoped soon to announce partners in the quest for a jab, she added, although she declined to give a timescale for when one might be developed. Cepi’s Nicole Laurie said global health bodies were ‘getting some live-fire drills’ with hantavirus and the latest Ebola outbreak. The hunt for a vaccine should be helped by scientific advances including the use of artificial intelligence to find drugs active against viruses, Lurie said. Existing jabs against the Zaire Ebola virus responsible for many previous outbreaks might provide a basis for tackling the Bundibugyo species, she added. “We’ll see how far and how fast we can get,” Lurie said, adding that Cepi had done preliminary work recently on a possible jab for the rat-borne hantavirus responsible for a recent fatal outbreak on a cruise ship. “Both with hantavirus and now with Ebola, [we] are getting some live-fire drills.” Source: Michael Peel in the Financial Times Dad-chat is coming for dad-books. (By Pamela Paul and Jeffrey A. Trachtenberg in the WSJ) They were the go-to gifts for Father’s Day: a book about some little-known chapter of World War II, the sweeping narrative of a shipwreck, perhaps the latest presidential biography. These days, dad books are a dying breed. Nonfiction book sales have been in decline for the past four years, and are now the most challenged segment of the print book market. Publishers say certain types of books still fare well—including celebrity memoirs and religious titles. But in recent years, print sales in such categories as biography, current affairs and business and economics—what publishers refer to as “serious nonfiction” and which tend to resonate especially with men—have fallen considerably. Sales of nonfiction print titles were down nearly 8% through May 9 this year, and sales of books about politics and current affairs were down 19%, according to book tracker Circana BookScan. Publishing has long been subject to cyclical changes, with trends in format and genre taking over bookshelves in grand sweeps. (Remember the adult coloring-book craze? Or the stratospheric rise of romantasy?) But many in publishing believe the decline in serious nonfiction is more existential. “The trend couldn’t be clearer,” said Jonathan Karp, the former chief executive of Simon & Schuster and publisher of the new Simon Six imprint. “This is a sea change and people should wake up and realize we’re living in a new world.” One culprit for the shift: a new media diet for fans of more serious nonfiction. … Sixty-two percent of men and 54% of women consumed a podcast in the prior month, according to a recent survey by Edison Research at SSRS, up from 46% and 39%, respectively, in 2023. “When we have internal meetings to talk about this problem, it always comes around to podcasts,” said Jonathan Burnham, president and publisher of the Harper Group at HarperCollins Publishers. “The man who wants to read American history is now tuning into one of the many good podcasts about history that lends the quiet attention to a serious subject he’s looking for. It makes the idea of sitting down with a 700-page Ron Chernow book less appealing. You’ve scratched that itch.” Source: Wall Street Journal Remarkable report by Novara from the nationalist rally in London in mid May. Anna Airy, Leopard Moth and Plums, 1915 If you’ve scrolled this far, you know you want to click: Subscribe
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