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American Politics Is Already Inundated With AI Deepfakes. It’s Only Getting Worse.
These aren’t your 2024 deepfakes. Bad actors will go for broke using state-of-the-art AI tools to blunt voters’ confidence in elections.
In-House Counsel Need ‘T-Shaped’ Skills to Be a Business Leader
In-house counsel need not only deep legal skill but also business acumen and data literacy to help drive business growth, manage risk proactively, and create competitive advantage.
OpenAI launches AI model GPT-Rosalind for life sciences research
OpenAI on Thursday introduced an artificial intelligence model touting increased biology knowledge and scientific research capabilities, as the startup deepens its push into the life sciences field.
Congress grills RFK, Jr., about vaccines and cuts to health budget
The HHS secretary defended proposed budget cuts to science, his vaccine moves and health care costs Thursday on Capitol Hill
Google AI Mode getting deep Chrome integration on desktop, mobile
Like the Gemini app before, Google is now deeply integrating AI Mode with desktop and mobile Chrome. On the New Tab Page...
Triangle sports bars to watch the Carolina Hurricanes in the Stanley Cup Playoffs
The Carolina Hurricanes are heading back to the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Here are some Triangle-area sports bars that are sure to provide lively atmospheres for what's hopefully another deep playoff run.
10 dinosaur science books recommended by a paleontologist
Steve Brusatte, author of The Rise and Fall of the Dinosaurs and The Story of Birds, recommends 10 dinosaur books to dig into
Connecting to Community Business Leaders through Storytelling
As a part of Montclair State University’s mission, deepening our understanding of shared experiences is an important part of our work. This Spring Session, Bloomfield Campus Library provided the space for an open discussion about leadership for Black and Latina women. Bloomfield Campus Library invited a panel of speakers to reflect on their journeys as […]
GE Appliances invests $28M in Decatur plant, health clinic
GE Appliances has announced a $28 million investment in new manufacturing technology and a primary care clinic designed to serve employees and their families at its Decatur refrigeration plant. The company says the investment strengthens its Alabama workforce, deepens community ties and supports its broader $3 billion plan to expand U.S. manufacturing over the next five years. GE Appliances has operated in Decatur since 1977, and the company says the site remains its highest-volume refrigeration plant in the country.
Magic Johnson's transition from basketball to business
NBA icon Magic Johnson delivered a high-energy, deeply personal talk at Wake Forest University’s Face-to-Face Speaker Forum on Tuesday night, shifting seamlessly from storytelling to a masterclass in business, discipline and community impact. Interviewed by college basketball commentator Jay Bilas, Johnson commanded the stage — and eventually the aisles — blending humor, sermon-like energy and […]
UNC Hussman offers new sports play-by-play class | UNC Hussman School of Journalism and Media
This story, written by UNC Hussman alumna Caroline Daly ’24, was originally published on unc.edu. The UNC Hussman School of Journalism and Media has a new, hands-on class available for students interested in sports careers. Students in “MEJO 390: Sports Commentary and Play-By-Play” can call live radio broadcasts for Carolina sporting events, streamed live on the Go Heels website. This spring, 11 students are calling mostly softball games to gain experience and learn the preparation needed for a successful broadcast. The class is capped at a small number to provide consistent, individual feedback. Matt Krause, the radio voice of Carolina women’s basketball, teaches the class to help students sharpen their skills, using his experience with the Tar Heels and calling games for ACC Network and ACC Network Extra. “There is no substitute for live reps, and that is the only way you get better. The classroom component teaches you how to get better, but going about that requires sitting in that chair, making mistakes and being able to know your broadcast is going somewhere,” Krause said. “These students are doing real live games, and they will have tape where if they want to pursue this. They will have ready-made demos to send for jobs. Being able to utilize all the resources of UNC, GoHeels Productions and the Carolina Athletics brand and create these opportunities for students is really impactful.” In the class, students learn fundamentals like how to announce starting lineups for different sports and how to conduct research before games. Krause has led the class in mock preparation exercises, looking at game charts with information about the different teams and players that they can refer to at pivotal moments during the game. Krause and the students then critique each other, listening to clips from the past week to find ways to improve. It’s a rare class without a slew of quizzes or assignments. Their main tasks are calling games and making a portfolio or demo reel of their best calls at the end of the semester, all with the goal of being ready to step into similar roles after graduation. Laible live streams her coverage on the GoHeels website. Calling a live game while broadcasting her coverage allows her to get hands on experience. (Jon Gardiner/UNC-Chapel Hill) Junior Anna Laible ’27 wished for a class just like this. Her first year at Carolina, she interned with the Coastal Plain League, where she was introduced to play-by-play for baseball. “I enjoy the challenge and uncertainty of each game being different because each sport looks a little different,” said Laible. “Each game is different — not just with teams but what could happen with certain records being broken or random trends. That’s what I enjoy most.” She wanted more opportunities for reps during college to prepare for a career after Carolina, so she pitched an idea for the class to Livis Freeman ’99, distinguished associate professor of sports communication. Laible and Freeman reached out to GoHeels Productions for a partnership and then connected with Krause. “This is how at UNC Hussman we separate ourselves: Our students go into the field ready,” said Freeman. “The biggest compliment we get it is when our students start their careers, they don’t need any hand-holding.” Laible calls a Carolina softball game at Kessing Stadium – after pitching the idea to Hussman faculty. Her interest in sports commentary allowed her to apply her interest as she attends Carolina. (Jon Gardiner/UNC-Chapel Hill) Laible is now a student in the class, which has helped her strengthen her skills and deepen her passion for the field. The goal is to expand to other sports like soccer, lacrosse and field hockey. “The hands-on experience I’ve gotten here is invaluable. I’ve loved the classes and professors because they’ve taught me a lot, but it’s also the things outside of class, too, that have helped me grow,” said Laible. “Since being at UNC, I’ve grown a lot in the versatility, from doing writing to production and commentating. UNC Hussman and Carolina have given me the ability to be strong and well rounded.”
Around the MHS
The latest news from around the Military Health System for the week of April 13-17, 2026, includes the U.S. Navy medical team recovering Artemis II, a U.S. Army Captain’s unconventional journey to becoming a dentist, and a first-of-its-kind spinal surgery at U.S. Naval Hospital Okinawa, Hawaii.
What is the deal with these strange deepfake Trump memes?
Before there was Trump as Jesus, there was Trump as the pope. There was Trump as Rocky. There was Trump in Apocalypse Now, smelling victory.
DeepL, known for text translation, now wants to translate your voice
DeepL says its tech could be used for real-time translation with meeting tools like Zoom and Microsoft Teams
Collaboration needed
Illinois Times published an article April 2 entitled “A collaborative effort for downtown,” referring to the push to create a new taxing body to expand the BOS Center and construct a new hotel. I only wish a “collaborative effort” was indeed the case. While I am not an elected official, I am a longtime advocate […]
Around the MHS
The latest news from around the Military Health System for the week of April 13-17, 2026, includes the U.S. Navy medical team recovering Artemis II, a U.S. Army Captain’s unconventional journey to becoming a dentist, and a first-of-its-kind spinal surgery at U.S. Naval Hospital Okinawa, Hawaii.
Pillen doesn't believe government can fix mental health crisis, puts part of blame on social media
Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen discussed the mental health crisis following the deadly Walmart incident.
AI-rendered Val Kilmer debuts in 'As Deep as the Grave' trailer
The filmmakers behind “As Deep as the Grave” have used AI to recreate Val Kilmer in a prominent role | KMBZ
Christian McCaffrey "fired up" to play with Mike Evans
Acclaimed astrophysicist and electric slam poet blend science and storytelling in upcoming UCSC lecture
The second annual Landesman Lecture features UC Santa Cruz professor Enrico Ramirez Ruiz in conversation with slam poet Jasmine Schlafke—blending science, poetry and storytelling to explore our deepest origins and shared humanity. The lecture series is made possible by UC Santa Cruz faculty retirees, Edward (Ed) and Miriam Landesman.
SantaCon organizer is a grinch who stole $1 million, Justice Department alleges
The organizer of SantaCon, an annual bar crawl where attendees dress up as Santa Claus, was arrested and charged with stealing more than $1 million intended for charity.
Greater Wausau Chamber set to host Business EXPO Thursday
The Greater Wausau Chamber of Commerce will host hundreds of exhibitors and thousands of attendees at the organization’s annual Business EXPO on Thursday, April 16.
Contested Body Counts, Visibility and the (Necro)Politics of America’s War in Iran
Recent focus on a missing US aircrew member and underreported military casualties in Iran reveals a deeper system controlling war visibility.
Dundee can take nothing for granted in bottom-six battle
For all I have been praising Dundee in recent times, the stark truth is they find themselves in their current predicament because their points return has not been good enough having won just two of their past 12 Premiership games. Head coach Steven Pressley praised the "character", "personality" and "resilience" his side showed as they twice came from behind to draw 2-2 at Killie last Saturday. In the 15 league games the Dark Blues have played against the other teams in the bottom half this season – Dundee United, Aberdeen, St Mirren, Kilmarnock and Livingston - Pressley's side have won five, drawn six and lost four.
Grok’s sexual deepfakes almost got it banned from Apple’s App Store. Almost.
The back-and-forth explains xAI’s confusing policy changes.
PS6 Leak Signals Unexpected Name Change, 3 New Consoles Due In 2027
The PS6 is expected to land in three very different forms.
How American, Delta, and United's newest business class suites compare
Doors in business class are now the baseline of premium flying as deep-pocket travelers keep paying up for more privacy and comfort.
'Deeply grateful': Darren McAuley passes $530K in donations, flying past Dem field in CD 15
He wrapped the quarter with $265,000 in cash on hand.
Jonathan Groff cast in Lin-Manuel Miranda-directed musical film project
Ronks native Jonathan Groff and award-winning stage and film composer Lin-Manuel Miranda — who shared the Broadway stage in "Hamilton" — are back together again, set to work on a
NBA play-in: Coby White 3, late LaMelo Ball layup propel Hornets in OT thriller past Heat
White sent the game to OT with a 3 as Kon Knueppel watched from the bench. Then LaMelo Ball redeemed himself with a game-winning layup in the final seconds.
Business owner calls for community support after fire destroys historic Cullman building
In the heart of downtown Cullman, the destruction of the historic Stiefelmeyer Building is more than a devastating fire — it is a loss deeply rooted in history, memory and community identity.
Wait, Is Amanda Dead on ‘Will Trent’?!
The GBI deputy chief is in deep trouble... again.
Apple App Store threatened to remove Grok over deepfakes: letter
In a letter to senators sent in January, Apple detailed how it responded to Grok’s ability to generate sexualized deepfakes.
Mid-Michigan Matters: Celebrating science and improving scientific literacy
Throughout April, Michigan State University will be holding its Science Festival.
Get Real With SOMD Politics: Roy Alvey Discusses Spending, Development And County Priorities
ST. MARY’S COUNTY, Md. — On a recent episode of “Get Real with Southern Maryland Politics,” host Chris Hill sat down with St. Mary’s County Commissioner President candidate Roy Alvey for a wide-ranging conversation about his background, priorities, and vision for St. Mary’s County. A lifelong St. Mary’s County resident, Alvey emphasized his deep roots in the […]
Todd Blanche says Americans should be 'happy' Trump is deeply involved in DOJ
The acting attorney general said in an interview with NBC News that he's not concerned when Trump "encourages or directs or expects the Department of Justice to do its job."
Welcome to Half Moon Grey
At Rivian, our paint palette has always been an extension of the places we explore, from the deep woods of Forest Green to the vibrant sunset warmth of Red Canyon. Half Moon Grey is the newest color in our lineup, carrying a similar depth to El Cap Granite that it replaces, while introducing more warmth and a finer metallic that is a more natural expression of grey. It is subtle in tone and designed to shift with its surroundings. But this is more than just another shade of grey; it’s a masterclass in color science and organic inspiration.
Greater Wausau Chamber of Commerce to host annual Business EXPO
The Greater Wausau Chamber of Commerce will host hundreds of exhibitors and thousands of attendees at the organization’s annual Business EXPO on Thursday.
Hightower names Roberto Stewart as president and chief business officer
The veteran operating executive joins from Engle Martin and will lead Hightower One, the mega-RIA's back- and middle-office platform, just as the firm deepens its push in the Signature Wealth channel.
NSF lags in grant awards and Trump again proposes deep cuts to science
The latest science policy news.
After three years of conflict, Sudan faces a deeper health crisis
14 April 2026, Geneva, Cairo, Port Sudan – Three years of war in Sudan have created the world’s largest humanitarian and displacement crisis, with devastating consequences for people’s health.While the situation is...
After three years of conflict, Sudan faces a deeper health crisis
Three years of war in Sudan have created the world’s largest humanitarian and displacement crisis, with devastating consequences for people’s health.
UNC Health Pardee Hosts Community Open House for Brevard Campus
UNC Health Pardee Hosts Community Open House for Brevard Campus
Longtime Mayo's customers share fond memories as closing looms
In the final weeks for the family-owned business, the 'fun' continues amid close-out sales.
Italy's surprise rise in exports to US masks deep fragility to tariffs
Italy was the only major EU country whose exports to the United States grew last year despite Donald Trump's tariffs. The result was hailed by Rome's government, but a closer look at the data shows one-off factors at play and little underlying resilience.
Rep. Eric Swalwell will resign from Congress following sexual misconduct allegations
The California Democrat said in a statement he was “deeply sorry to my family, staff and constituents for mistakes in judgment I’ve made in my past.”
Trump's Iran war deepens the GOP's midterm challenges: From the Politics Desk
Plus, Trump vs. the pope.
Former Bills great @StevieJohnson13 mentoring WR Keon Coleman
Former Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stevie Johnson has taken Keon Coleman under his wing entering the young receiver’s third NFL season.
Lone Star Politics: April 12, 2026
Texas Senators consider social media ban for children. Plus, we take a deep dive into one of the largest bond elections in the history of the state. NBC 5’s Phil Prazan and Gromer Jeffers with The Dallas Morning News bring you the latest in Texas politics.
2026 Bluebird Banter Top 40 Prospects: Matt’s Pref List
The last instalment in the Top 40 series on this off-day is my list of prospects I was somewhat higher on and would have either had on or in the mix for the back of my list alone. As Tom noted on his list, these are deep(er) sleepers, generally low probability, but usually they’re be […]
Xbox Shoots Down ‘Fable’ Delay Rumors, Must Dodge ‘GTA 6’
Fable will come out in the fall of 2026, Xbox reiterates, after viral rumors said it would be delayed to dodge GTA 6.
4A Games announces Metro 2039, and we're getting an Xbox-themed reveal stream later this week
Developer 4A Games and publisher Deep Silver have announced Metro 2039, the fourth entry in the post-apocalyptic FPS series. A full reveal is coming this week.
Opinion: I was recruited to play a sport here, but first, my family had to pay for it
It was a hot summer day in east Long Island. Hundreds of kids and parents from across the country piled into a sports complex consisting of four adjacent turf baseball fields. The gates were manned by a brigade of staff who were commandeering the large crowd. “Are these credentials right?” they asked as they showed...
Hubble Spies an Active Spiral
Hubble captures a luminous swirl set against the deep black of space, the barred spiral galaxy IC 486 glows with a soft, ethereal light.
The ‘bar has raised’ for UF computer science and engineering students
AI is changing expectations of CSE students entering the workforce
Leaker adds support for red iPhone 18 color rumor, in a slightly weird way
Bloomberg reported back in February that Apple was considering a new deep red color option for the iPhone 18 Pro,...
iPhone 18 Pro Deep Red Color Likely as Android Rivals Prep Same Shade
Apple's upcoming iPhone 18 Pro is very likely to come in a new deep red color, claims a Chinese leaker, because the color is already being prototyped by Android phone makers. In February, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman reported that Apple is testing a deep red finish for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max. Rumors of purple and brown finishes have also circulated, but Gurman believes those are just variants of the same red idea.
Venezuela hopes to lure back international miners, but it's a risky business
Venezuela's effort to attract foreign investors to develop its gold, iron and bauxite seams has enthusiastic backing from the Trump administration but faces big challenges, including armed groups with deep interests in the chaotic, largely illegal prospecting industry that has developed over the past 20 years, according to nine miners, residents and community activists who spoke to Reuters.
Reindeer politics – why some Sámi struggle for recognition
State Farm sues Amazon after dehumidifier allegedly sparks fire
A federal agency deemed Amazon a "distributor" - now an insurer wants it to pay
Lee Health: Volunteers make a difference every day
From boosted moods and happiness to a deep sense of accomplishment and purpose, volunteering offers countless benefits to those who give their time.
The ‘Wild West’ of peptides is booming. Here’s what’s real, what’s risky and what’s next
In the early 2020s, interest in GLP-1 weight loss drugs exploded. Now, as we move deeper into the decade, a new buzzword is taking over: peptides.
Bayern planning second summer signing
After joining Bayern Munich on loan from Gambinos Stars Africa in January, Bara Sapoko Ndiaye finally made his debut for the German champions in their 5-0 win over FC St. Pauli on Saturday, coming off...
European chemical firms, hit hard by Iran war, to report falling Q1 earnings
European chemical companies are expected to report weaker first-quarter results, shedding light on how deep the impact from the war in the Middle East has been on an industry largely seen as one of the most exposed to it.
UFC adds former title challenger to the White House card
Despite arguably being one of the best six-fight lineups in the company's history, the UFC White House card suffered backlash from fans for not living up to the lofty expectations placed on its shoulders. To combat the noise, Dana White decided to add more firepower to the June 14 event. The ...
The underworld invades Sutter Street Theatre
FOLSOM — "Hadestown: Teen Edition," an intriguing and beautiful folk opera, delivers a deeply resonant and defiantly hopeful theatrical experience. The full-length adaptation of Anaïs Mitchell’s "Hadestown," modified for performance
Black hole wakes after 100 million years and erupts like a cosmic volcano
A colossal “cosmic volcano” has erupted in deep space, as a supermassive black hole in galaxy J1007+3540 roars back to life after nearly 100 million years of silence. Astronomers captured stunning radio images showing fresh jets blasting outward while crashing into the intense pressure of a surrounding galaxy cluster, creating a chaotic, distorted structure stretching nearly a million light-years.
About His Business
Elder Kearon teaches that callings from the Lord are tailor-made for our growth and that when we respond to a call, we don’t merely fill an assignment but join the Saviour in His redeeming work.
Masters 2026: Only one question remains for Rory McIlroy — how high will he climb among golf's all-time greats?
McIlroy may never have the numbers to catch Jack Nicklaus or Tiger Woods, but he certainly has a pathway to No. 3 all-time.
Dons boss Robinson will not relax until safety is secured
Stephen Robinson does not want Aberdeen to relax during their two-week break after they recorded a much-needed 2-0 win over Hibernian to boost their William Hill Premiership survival hopes. Kevin Nisbet netted from the penalty spot after Grant Hanley was sent off for hauling down Toyosi Olusanya and the Scotland striker added a second with 15 minutes to go to end a nine-match winless league run. The Dons are five points above Kilmarnock, who sit in the relegation play-off spot with five games to play, and the two teams clash at Pittodrie in the next round of Premiership fixtures which does not take place until April 25.
Music Econ Summit embraces art as business
The Music Econ Summit on Saturday drew 120 attendees and many music industry experts for a day of mentoring on the business side of music.
Watch: Provost Dittmar, Project Metis leaders outline vision for brain health, brain economy
Four months after its launch, Project Metis is building momentum — with a new website and video offering a deeper look at the initiative’s vision to position the Houston-Galveston region as a global leader in brain health and the emerging brain economy.
'Human minds shouldn't have to go through' this: Artemis II crew recalls unreal moment when Earth disappeared — Space photo of the week
A stunning Earthset image from Artemis II recalls Apollo 8's Earthrise, marking humanity's return to deep space and the start of a new era of exploration.
Sooo ... About Last Night
Last night (Sat., April 11, 2026), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) ventured forth to Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida for UFC 327. Was this the deepest numbered event since UFC 300? Maybe Jon Anik was onto something! There were great fights from top to bottom, like Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque on the early “Prelims” card. […]
Christmas Vacation and Congress: 'We're all in misery' amid the ongoing DHS shutdown
Fox News' Chad Pergram discusses Congress' prolonged DHS shutdown and the risky tactics associated with it as political divisions threaten deeper government funding crises.
Scientists Finally Crack the 100-Million-Year Evolutionary Mystery of Squid and Cuttlefish
Genomic analysis reveals squid and cuttlefish evolved in deep oceans, survived mass extinction in refuges, and later rapidly diversified, following a “long fuse” evolutionary pattern.
Republicans are torn on following Trump's lead in governor's race
Republicans have a rare, if slim shot at winning the governor’s mansion in deep blue California — but risk blowing it if they’re divided.
Seniors: Carol Watson, 72
Owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping in LaFayette enjoys her growing business — still puts in six-, seven-day weeks By Mary Beth Roach Carol Watson, the owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping, has been in gardens since she could walk. Literally. She said she learned to walk in her grandfather’s garden, which was next door to her current home and business in LaFayette. Today, at 72, she is running the business that her mother, Claire, opened in 1981 as Watson Greenhouse. Watson worked part-time for her mom until 1990, when she joined her full time. While she may not have had any formal horticultural experience, she said she learned so much about growing and raising plants from her mom, who had an abundance of energy and talent. Now, after 35 years in the business full time, Watson has no plans to retire, although she joked that she’d like a couple of days off a week. On her seven-acre site, complete with four greenhouses, Watson said her favorite parts of the job are working with and educating her customers; helping some of her young customers build terrariums; conducting occasional class field trips; and supporting local art by decorating the shop with an eclectic mix of pottery from at least four area craftspeople. A one-time employee of the former Dey Bros. department store in Syracuse, Watson said she loves merchandising and enjoys displaying unique pieces of art on shelves and even suspending from ceilings. “We’re creative. We also had top quality plants. We got a reputation of quality plants and unusual products,” she said. It’s tending to her customers and her plants, showcasing the unusual products, and hosting special events to benefit the community that keep her motivated to work six to seven days a week. “I just love it. I love taking care of the plants. I’m one of the few people that really enjoys watering,” she said. And while she has cultivated a solid customer base over the years, she remains savvy in her marketing efforts to draw in new customers. For example, she does a gardening segment on CNY Central television; her active Facebook page has thousands of followers; and she hosts a number of unique events and classes that not only introduce her shop to potential new clients, but some benefit nonprofits as well. About 13 years ago, when the local symphony orchestra was struggling, she said she wanted to help. So, partnering with the group, she began offering concerts, called Soirees, featuring the Syracuse Orchestra’s string quartet. Following up on a suggestion from a customer whose brother is a deejay in retirement, specializing in sock hops, she hosted the greenhouse’s first sock hop. Plants got moved back toward the walls to make room for dancing; a caterer was brought in, offering diner-like food; guests came in period outfits; and proceeds went to the Food Bank of CNY. She is excited about doing it again in October. Via her website, she promotes the greenhouse as an “oasis in the snow,” offering visitors the opportunity to pick up some decorating and gift ideas while taking in the floral and citrus scents. And she also caters to her four-legged friends. Over this past winter, she said, she came up with a “brilliant idea,” although at the time she didn’t appreciate just how brilliant it would become. Feeling it too cold outside to take her dog for a walk, she opted to bring it into the greenhouse. And before long, she was inviting people to bring their dogs into the big greenhouse as well. She looks forward to extending that invitation again this upcoming winter season. For Watson and her customers, the greenhouse is always in season.
Postal Service, Under Pressure, Now Faces Trump’s Mail Ballot Order
President Trump’s executive order, which has been challenged as unconstitutional, would limit the Postal Service to sending only the ballots of voters deemed eligible.
Gulf Coast Sports and Entertainment Network to air 15 Biloxi Shuckers games in 2026
The Biloxi Shuckers and Gray Media Inc. will continue their TV partnership for the 2026 season, with 15 games airing throughout Mississippi and Louisiana on the Gulf Coast Sports and Entertainment Network.
Gulf Coast Sports and Entertainment Network to air 15 Biloxi Shuckers games in 2026
The Biloxi Shuckers and Gray Media Inc. will continue their TV partnership for the 2026 season, with 15 games airing throughout Mississippi and Louisiana on the Gulf Coast Sports and Entertainment Network.
Gulfstream's Skyward event draws global business aviation leaders to Savannah
Gulfstream Aerospace Corp. recently hosted nearly 2,000 attendees from over 30 countries at Skyward, its newly reimagined customer event in Savannah. The three-day conference served as a pivotal gathering to discuss the evolving landscape of business aviation.
Scientists Baffled by Bizarre “Living Fossil” From 275 Million Years Ago
Tanyka amnicola is a newly identified ancient tetrapod known from unusual twisted jawbones adapted for grinding plants. This rare herbivorous “living fossil” helps scientists better understand early evolution and ecosystems in Gondwana. In a dry riverbed in Brazil, deep within a forest near the A
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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