SCROLL NEWS / DISCOVERY
Search headlines
Find the stories shaping the conversation.
Results for " shot " 4,906 found 🔀 AI-powered Shuffle
Aurora community divided on service versus business approach
The meeting made clear that Aurora is a community divided on the issue.
EVO Entertainment to Bring Dolby Vision+Atmos to EVX Auditoriums Across Texas, New Mexico and Florida
Dolby Laboratories has announced at CinemaCon that EVO Entertainment plans to equip its EVX Premium Large Format auditoriums with Dolby Vision and Dolby Atmos. The rollout will begin with a 17-screen deployment across eight cinema entertainment centers in Texas, New Mexico, and Florida—many of which are newly built facilities designed from the ground up to […]
Wyatt Johnston seals Stars' regular season-ending 4-3 shootout win over Sabres
Jake Oettinger stopped 21 shots and two of Buffalo’s four shootout opportunities.
Students showcase their skills at Lower Mills Science Fair
Students at Saint John Paul II Catholic Academy’s Lower Mills campus turned into scientists for the day on April 3, presenting their projects at the school’s annual STREAM Fair in the St. Gregory auditorium.
Spectrum Science hires MSL’s chief client officer to lead comms offering
Lisa Talbot started in the role last month.
NC lawmakers recommend reforms to mental health system, but funding questions loom
House committee calls for jail telehealth evaluations, expanded data collection and other reforms.
Clinton, Missouri, business owners clean up after tornado destroys storage shed
A tornado touched down just outside of Clinton, Mo., on Wednesday night, with minimal damage to structures in the community.
‘Show Me Science’ showcases student research and innovation
Young minds from across Missouri are gathered this week at St. Charles Community College for the inaugural Show Me Science competition, Mo.’s first state science fair. The event features 215 …
EMS Week in Saline County highlights mental health challenges for first responders
EMS Week in Saline County is shining a spotlight on first responders while drawing attention to the mental health challenges that come with the job.A new partne
City leaders and advocates address disparities in Black maternal health
SAN FRANCISCO (KRON) — San Francisco policy leaders and community advocates are marking Black Maternal Health Week with a focus on improving outcomes for Black families. The event at City Hall high…
Bothell police investigate downtown massage parlors; five businesses shut down
Bothell police are investigating several massage parlors in the city’s downtown area over suspected prostitution.
Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences Faculty Recognized at the ARIS 2026 Summit
Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences (DMCS) Department Chair Oscar Schofield and Professor Kay Bidle were honored for their work elevating research impact at the 2026 Center for Advancing Research Impact in Society (ARIS)’s 2026 Summit, “Impact by Design”, which took place March 30 – April 1. Schofield was awarded the Enduring Achievement Award, which honors those with a long and storied history […]
Small Business Champion Elaine Parker Highlights Success of Big Beautiful Tax Cuts - Americans for Tax Reform
On April 14 in the U.S. Capitol building, Job Creators Network Foundation President Elaine Parker highlighted the success of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act,
EVO Entertainment to Bring Dolby Vision+Atmos Across Its EVX Auditoriums
EVO Entertainment plans to equip its EVX Premium Large Format auditoriums with Dolby Vision and Dolby Atmos.
Fathom Entertainment brings events, entertainment and originals to screen
CinemaCon coverage continues with Fathom Entertainment. Jillian Lopez talks with Fathom Entertainment CEO, Ray Nutt, about what’s headed to the big screen. Fathom Entertainment is highlightin…
3 arrested after shots fired outside Clanton business
Officers responded shortly after 3 p.m. to a report of gunfire outside KMA Manufacturing, according toClanton police.
Where to watch Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies: Live stream, start time, TV channel, odds for Wednesday, April 15
Shota Imanaga is scheduled to start for the Cubs against the Phillies.
Overwatch’s New Hero Is So Strong She Kills Most Heroes Instantly
Sierra’s ultimate probably needs a nerf or two
Business owners 'spooked' by oil price surge, national survey shows
A monthly national barometer of small business optimism released by the National Federation of Independent Business shows a dip in March.
South Charleston business named West Virginia Small Businesses Manufacturer of the Year
SOUTH CHARLESTON, W.Va. (WOWK) – A small South Charleston business was named the West Virginia Small Businesses Manufacturer of the Year by the Small Business Administration. Cyclopes Industr…
Callaway Plaza business owners ask for City of Holts Summit's help
According to previous reporting, the odor has caused a decrease in sales for at least one business.
Feds bust family-run drug business with cartel ties, prosecutors say
Five men are facing a host of charges related to the sale of narcotics and firearms known as 'ghost guns.'
Harrisburg appoints new business administrator; council concerned with his experience, hasty vote
Harrisburg has a new chief of staff. At a meeting Tuesday, City Council approved Antonio Megna as the new business administrator, a position that has been vacant since a legal battle between council and the mayor resulted in the former office-holder’s termination. Megna previously served as the special assistant to the business administrator for about […]
Businesses fundraising for family after tragic loss
LAKE POINSETT, S.D. (KELO) — An eastern South Dakota community is grieving after a beloved son and brother died unexpectedly over the weekend. But, businesses around Lake Poinsett are steppin…
In-patient mental health clinic in Chevy Chase neighborhood gets approval despite public outcry
The decision was met with boos of frustration at the meeting, with some opponents shouting, "See you in court."
NFL Draft in Pittsburgh expected to boost business in nearby Weirton
The NFL draft will take over the city of Pittsburgh next week, with hundreds of thousands of visitors expected in town for the event.While the bulk of the actio
From banker to entrepreneur: Coach K’s journey
Expert financial coach shares Tax Day tips, her journey from banking to entrepreneurship, and a three-step strategy to help small businesses secure funding.
Paul Scaletta - Golf Videos and Highlights
Paul Scaletta highlights and videos featuring interviews, press conferences, best putts, and more! - Golf
What is World Quantum Day and why does it matter?
Scientists, educators, and technology leaders around the world are marking World Quantum Day on Tuesday.
What They Are Saying: Small Business Owners Share How They’re Using 20% Small Business Deduction Savings
WASHINGTON, D.C. (April 14, 2026) – In a new video, NFIB member and Texas small business owner, Marcie Rodriguez, describes how making the 20% Small Business Deduction permanent has benefited her metal recycling company. Rodriguez explains how the deduction has allowed her to plan raises for employe
Get Money Out of Politics
Individuals and corporations alike can spend infinite sums of money to influence elections and push candidates that will support and – at the very least –
UA Little Rock Student Evaluates, Enhances Local Youth Sports Programs
Having always been involved in sports, Avery Thomas-Wells wanted to help other kids have the experience he had growing up. A fall 2023 Sport Management graduate and expected May 2026 ... UA Little Rock Student Evaluates, Enhances Local Youth Sports Programs
Advancing Metabolic Health Through Coordinated Care
The Metabolic Health Institute is a first-of-its-kind model unifying endocrinology, obesity medicine and bariatric surgery under non-surgical leadership.
University of Arizona launches BS in Science Law, available on campus and online
The BS in Science Law builds a strong foundation in both disciplines through coursework and labs in biology, chemistry and physics, alongside undergraduate law courses.
Deputies report gunfire during armed burglary response at business, Orange County Sheriff’s Office says
According to the sheriff’s office, deputies heard shots fired near the rear of the business and a nearby wooded area.
Civic Entertainment Group acquires Wave Kilo
The deal marks Civic’s first acquisition in the PR space.
Paulo Costa and Josh Hokit trade shots on social media
UFC 327 last Saturday was heavyweight Josh Hokit's coming out party. He garnered attention with his media antics leading up to the event and then put on a performance that won't soon be forgotten. Unranked Hokit faced No. 5 ranked Curtis Blaydes in a main card matchup and was part of what some are ...
Cheyenne residents protest proposed business park near Roundtop Road
CHEYENNE, Wyo. — The Cheyenne City Council faced pushback from local residents Monday evening during a public hearing regarding the proposed annexation
Allegheny Health Network and UPMC to have pop-up clinics for NFL draft in Pittsburgh
With the anticipated crowds of people for the NFL draft, health care workers are preparing to care for anyone who will need treatment.
'Experience something different': New crafting business opens in downtown Lynchburg
A new local crafting business is bringing a fresh focus on creativity and community connection.
JD Vance Seems to Ruin Everything He Touches
Does the vice president really think he has a shot in 2028, despite his consistent failures?
The Many Faces of STEM
UNLV graduate students host a science workshop at Sunrise Mountain High School, providing an opportunity for kids to explore numerous career pathways.
Poll: Democrats gaining ground, key races tighten in Florida as Donald Trump drags GOP
Independent voters are breaking sharply toward Democrats, a shift pollsters say could reshape Florida’s political map after years of Republican dominance.
Mercy Health’s Mercy Serves program is hepling mental health challenges
Mercy Health’s Mercy Serves program is helping mental health challenges.
Belton 'Business Park' proposal draws neighbor pushback on warehouse development
Communities in Cass County, Missouri are changing each week, especially in Belton with new development projects popping up.
Radiology Partners reportedly eyeing international expansion
America’s largest radiology group has purportedly considered making a bid to buy its Australian counterpart, which tallied over $176 million in adjusted earnings last year.
Who is Peter Magyar, Hungary’s new leader who trounced Viktor Orban?
Magyar's centre-right Tisza Party has won a two-thirds majority in Hungary's parliamentary elections.
This week in PC games: sci-fi shooter Pragmata, 2.5D platformer Replaced, and the most wishlisted game on Steam compete with illuminated manuscripts
All the biggest and most interesting PC games out this week, inlcuding pirate sandbox Windrose, sci-fi adventure Pragmata, and 2.5D platformer Replaced.
Palm Beach County professionals on the move for the week of April 13
Top Palm Beach County business professionals moving up within their industry or standing out in their community.
Your guide to who’s who in the MAHA movement
Sure, Americans know Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Mehmet Oz. But Marty Makary? Calley Means?
UNC researcher works to make AI more reliable in health care
Researchers at UNC Chapel Hill's Gillings School of Global Public Health are tailoring AI to make it more reliable for solving health problems.
Watch: As AI Makes More Health Coverage Decisions, The Risks To Patients Grow
This year, executives from nearly every major health insurance company made the same declaration in calls with Wall Street analysts: Using artificial intelligence to make coverage decisions would help save them money.
The Message Man: Ferraro Award Winner Matt Corridoni ’13 Helps Political Campaigns Connect
Forty years after Geraldine Ferraro ’56 became the first woman nominated for vice president by a major political party, Kamala Harris mounted her own ba...
Community rallies around local business after fire
Investigators are trying to find out what set off a massive fire that tore through a lumber business in Wayne County.
The Masters: Rory McIlroy defends title and makes more major history after thrilling one-shot win at Augusta National
Santee business owner arrested for allegedly threatening deputies
A Santee business owner was arrested this weekend after allegedly threatening to shoot sheriff's deputies who had responded to reports of gunshots, officials said.
Franklin youth sports event fight; gunfire reported, man arrested
Franklin police arrested a 36-year-old Illinois man on Sunday after a youth sports fight prompted gunshot reports, but investigators say no gun was fired.
‘Problem solver’ Richard Lamondin bolsters South Florida party support after SD 38 switch
‘His priorities are our priorities.’
Santee business owner arrested for allegedly threatening deputies
A Santee business owner was arrested this weekend after allegedly threatening to shoot sheriff's deputies who had responded to reports of gunshots, officials said.
Maizie Clarke Turned Illustrations Into a Thriving Business
Maizie Clarke is transforming the way we see custom merchandise, one watercolor brushstroke at a time. 🎨✨ What began as a kitchen-table side hustle in 2016 has grown into a thriving wholesale business, providing custom illustrated tea towels, ceramics, and scarves to museum shops and distilleries across the country. 🏛️🧣
The Latest: Final round of the 90th Masters has arrived
The final round of the 90th Masters has arrived, and it’s a tight race for the green jacket. Rory McIlroy and Cameron Young enter the round tied atop the leaderboard, and six others are within four shots after a dramatic Saturday. Sam Burns is one shot off the lead, Shane Lowry is two, and two-time Masters winner Scottie Scheffler lurks four shots back.
'Tarkov in Space' Revealed as Fragmentary Order, a Sci-Fi 'Combat Simulator'
Rant Gaming has unveiled Fragmentary Order, a new first-person shooter that many have dubbed Escape from Tarkov in space.
Masters 2026: Sergio Garcia gets warning after going nuclear on tee box, breaking driver and ending up carrying Jon Rahm's bag
Sergio Garcia was given a warning just two holes after he erupted on Sunday morning.
Illinois Court Hears Final Lawsuit Challenging Marijuana Social Equity Business Licensing Lottery
“We just want a fair shot. We’re not asking for anything special, no special privileges, but what they promised from the very beginning.” By Hannah Meisel, Capitol News Illinois Nearly seven years after Illinois lawmakers approved recreational cannabis legalization, applicants who lost out on coveted business licenses are still battling the state in court, alleging […]
The War With Iran Offered a Snapshot of Trump World. It’s Not a Pretty Picture.
In a roundtable discussion, POLITICO reporters detail how the war in Iran pulled back the curtain on the Trump administration.
The Hisense UR9 is a great first shot against OLED’s bow
The first affordable RGB LED TV still doesn’t outmatch OLED.
This Action Crime Thriller Just Shot to #1—and the Cast Is Absolutely Loaded
A star-studded crime thriller has quietly climbed to the top of Prime Video’s most-watched list, but, somehow, it flew completely under the radar. Find out more about the chart-topper here.
Trey McKenney discusses game-sealing shot in National Championship
At the national championship celebration, Michigan Basketball G Trey McKenney discussed his game-sealing shot vs UConn and how he “blacked out” in the process:
Winner and Loser of the Week in Florida politics
Florida got some good news on hurricane season, while long shot gubernatorial candidates are continuing to look out of their element.
Why reopening the Strait of Hormuz won’t be enough to solve shipping woes and high oil prices
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is proving to be difficult. But even if the vital waterway fully opens and oil and other necessary cargo sail out, it won’t be enough to return things to normal.
Rapper Offset shot in Florida. The latest on his condition
Rapper Offset was shot outside a Florida casino; two suspects are detained.
Former ‘Citgo 6’ political prisoner sees ‘karma’ in Maduro ouster, but Venezuelan oil won’t rebound until there’s true regime change
Former 'Citgo Six' captive sees democratic elections as the only way to build international business trust in Venezuela again.
Pacoima business owners say Montague Street conditions are driving customers away
Montague Street in Pacoima has become nearly impossible to ignore. Trash, abandoned furniture, and human waste line parts of the sidewalk and street, creating conditions that business owners say ar…
Pandemics Are Not Just Biological Crises
People typically think of pandemics in terms of their biological consequences, but science journalist Laura Spinney argues that their impact is shaped just as
How we reported on KY's 4th Congressional District, Massie, and Trump
How The Enquirer reported on the Massie-Gallrein race throughout the congressional district.
Tribal and Rural Healthcare at Risk in Oklahoma Gov. Stitt’s Attack on Medicaid
Guest Opinion Oklahoma leaders often visit Cherokee Nation’s Health System and celebrate our progress and tout our unmistakable impact on the health and economy of rural communities. Now, Governor Stitt is putting us on a path that will damage that very system. Recently the Oklahoma legislature passed Oklahoma HB 4440 and HJR 1067 to reverse […]
Mt. Carmel church hosts Minority Health Month men’s breakfast to raise awareness
Men gathered at Mt. Carmel Community Baptist Church on Saturday for the annual Minority Health Month Men’s Breakfast, an event aimed at raising awareness about
Plymouth Maple Fest sheds light on the maple syrup business
People from across the Plymouth community gathered on Saturday for the annual Maple Fest, which celebrates hand-made maple syrup across Sheboygan County.
Masters 2026: Rory McIlroy can't stop riding Augusta rollercoaster
Rory McIlroy says he will have to play better on Sunday if he is to defend his Masters title after letting slip a six-shot lead at Augusta National.
Republicans are torn on following Trump's lead in governor's race
Republicans have a rare, if slim shot at winning the governor’s mansion in deep blue California — but risk blowing it if they’re divided.
U.S. Small Business Administration Offers Drought Disaster Loans for Colorado Businesses, Private Nonprofits, Homeowners, and Renters - by Carly Winchell
The U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) announced the availability of low-interest federal disaster loans for small businesses and private nonprofit
Kids with heart defects soar on zip lines at University Health Kids Heart Camp
SAN ANTONIO - Kids battling some very serious health dificulties got the chance toTwo dozen children born with heart defects spent Saturday trying out the kind
25th Annual Arbor Day celebration at Yakima Area Arboretum focuses on tree health
The Yakima Area Arboretum celebrated the 25th anniversary of their Arbor Day celebration on Saturday.The theme of the 2026 ArborFest was 'From Seed to Sapling,'
‘Her recovery literally is miraculous’: Walmart Heart celebrates Church Hill girl after series of health issues
KINGSPORT, Tenn. (WJHL) — The Church Hill community gathered at Walmart in Kingsport on Saturday to support a girl who has made a remarkable recovery after facing serious health issues. Charleigh M…
RDC Hosts Free Business Booster Workshop And Intensive Networking Lunch April 14 At SALA
Visit the post for more.
Artemis II was a product of politics. Then it sent us over the Moon
In both 1968 and 2026, a mission to the Moon offered a refreshing blast of positivity for a conflict-ridden world. So what's different now — and what do we really gain from this new moonshot, five decades after the first?
Cowboys draft rumor shot down by star defender’s 30 visit
How would you feel about Jermod McCoy?
'Not about politics': Miami Beach unveils repurposed rainbow crosswalk installation
Pride is back on display in Miami Beach, as city leaders unveiled a new installation repurposing the bricks from the former Ocean Drive rainbow crosswalk.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Apple Highlights Photos Shot on iPhone During NASA's Mission to Moon
As we previously reported, astronauts aboard NASA's Orion spacecraft used the iPhone 17 Pro Max to take selfies of themselves with the Earth in the background during the Artemis II mission around the far side of the Moon last week. Now that the crew members have safely returned to Earth, Apple's CEO Tim Cook and marketing chief Greg Joswiak have both turned to social media to congratulate them on their successful mission and highlight the iPhone's involvement.
Healthy Baby Network to host 3rd Annual Black Maternal Health Walkathon
Greece, N.Y. — Healthy Baby Network will host its 3rd Annual Black Maternal Health Walkathon on Saturday at The Mall at Greece Ridge, from 9 a.m. to 2 p.m.The e
A longshot, upset bid and a few quick takes
It is hard to keep up these days. The flow of news often seems overwhelming. Let’s focus today on an unusual congressional race before moving on to a few quick, supplementary observations. Since its creation 54 years ago, Congressional District 5 has been represented by a grand total of five people – Bill Armstrong, Ken […]
Photographers are buzzing about the cameras the Artemis II used to capture its historic images
If you’re into photography and use cameras other than the one found on your phone, then you may understand the importance of selecting just the right camera for the perfect shot. For NASA’s Artemis II crew, the solution was to bring a variety of cameras to capture all sorts of images.