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Dual-comb absolute ranging reaches orbit
Light: Science & Applications - Tianzhou-9 carried an extravehicular dual-comb absolute-ranging payload to Tiangong space station, demonstrating sustained on-orbit kHz-level updates and...
Council Discusses Business Notification As Second Street Project Begins
While the state Department of Transportation has begun their work on Second Street, a question was brought up about how to contact business owners on the street and let them know about what the current plans are during Monday’s City Council meeting. Councilman Daniel Gonzalez, D-At Large and chair of the Public Works Committee, mentioned […]
DRAGON BALL Games Battle Hour 2026: DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE 3 Announced and More Reveals From the Event
Across two packed days, Bandai Namco Entertainment revealed major updates for multiple DRAGON BALL games, capped off by a great announcement: DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE 3 scheduled for 2027.
Reynolds, Keller lift Pirates to 6-3 win over Rays
Bryan Reynolds drove in three runs, Mitch Keller pitched seven strong innings, and the Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 6-3 on Sunday. Reynolds’ two-run single to left field capped a three-run fifth and put the Pirates ahead 4-2. The hit came after Nick Gonzales’ tying single drove in Joey Bart, who hit a leadoff double.
House Oversight to investigate missing or dead US nuclear scientists
Comer said the panel plans to seek information and briefings from the Pentagon, FBI, Department of Energy and NASA.
Cabbage Is Having a Moment, But Is It Actually Healthy for You?
FYI before you jump on the cabbage wagon.
Giants awarded an "F" in early grade for 2026
It has not gone great for the team by the bay.
NYU Langone Health neurologists present latest clinical findings and research at AAN 2026
This year’s meeting features more than 80 presentations from Department of Neurology faculty. Here are notable highlights: practical strategies to counter harmful medical myths and misinformation, phase 3 clinical results for a novel epilepsy medication, and the barriers patients with disabilities face while navigating outpatient facilities.
‘More needs to be done’: Former congresswoman and survivor laments lack of protections against sexual abuse
Tomodachi Life: Living the Dream solves Animal Crossing: New Horizon's biggest problem
I quickly burnt myself out playing Animal Crossing: New Horizons. I don't expect that to happen with Tomodachi Life: Living the Dream
5 surreal and striking sci-fi anime to watch while you play Pragmata
Find your next favorite anime with these Pragmata look-alikes
Leeds 3-0 Wolves: What Farke and Justin said
Leeds United's victory this afternoon takes them to 39 points after 33 Premier League matches played. No team has ever gone on to be relegated from the Premier League after amassing 39+ points at this stage of a 38-game Premier League campaign.
Move Over, Ray-Ban Meta: Samsung’s AI Galaxy Smart Glasses Are Finally Coming This Year
From the 12MP camera to the Snapdragon AR1 chip, here is everything we know about the Samsung Galaxy AI smart glasses launching in 2026.
Cory Mills says he shouldn't 'fall into the category' of Eric Swalwell, Tony Gonzales
U.S. Rep. Cory Mills rebuffed comparisons of his own personal scandals to those that forced U.S. Reps. Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales to resign. Caught
Statehouse beat: Ethics in West Virginia politics are dead and gone
We are witnessing an appalling, perhaps unprecedented decline in ethics in West Virginia politics.
West Salem High teacher advocates for unified sports as Mrs. Salem pageant contestant
A West Salem High School teacher is using a pageant platform to advocate for inclusion and unified sports programs across Oregon.
Dimensity 9600 Pro Beats A19 Pro And Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 By 25% In Benchmarks, But Extreme Heat May Erase That Gap
A tipster shared the first single-core and multi-core scores of the Dimensity 9600 Pro, revealing it’s much faster than the A19 Pro and Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5
Scientists warn of 3,100 “surging glaciers” that can trigger floods and avalanches
A hidden threat is emerging in the world’s glaciers: while most are shrinking, a rare group known as “surging glaciers” can suddenly accelerate, unleashing powerful and sometimes destructive events. Scientists have identified over 3,100 of these glaciers worldwide, with many clustered in high-risk regions like the Arctic and the Karakoram Mountains, where communities lie directly in their path.
iZag Radio Forges Gonzaga Entertainment Legacy
iZag Radio is redefining Gonzaga’s creative scene with student‑run podcasts, music shows, and “In the Pocket” concerts that spotlight rising campus talent.
Como will compete with Juventus for Real Madrid attacker
Juventus have maintained a long-standing interest in Gonzalo Garcia, who has struggled for consistent playing time at Real Madrid due to the exceptional form of Kylian Mbappe.During the recent Club Wo...
Pentagon defends Pete Hegseth using 'Pulp Fiction' monologue as prayer at worship service
The Pentagon is defending Pete Hegseth after the secretary of war used a Samuel L. Jackson monologue from 'Pulp Fiction' as a prayer at a worship service.
Health officials warn of measles exposure at Mt. Hood Community College campus in Gresham
Oregon health officials say there was another measles exposure in Gresham, this time at a building on the Mt. Hood Community College campus.The Oregon Health Au
Did Pete Hegseth just quote 'Pulp Fiction' during a Pentagon worship service?
Pete Hegseth seemed to quote 'Pulp Fiction' as he paraphrased a Bible verse during a recent Pentagon worship service.
From an Oregon waffle iron to global icon: How Nike changed the game
Born in Oregon and built into a global force, Nike grew from humble beginnings into one of America’s most influential brands.
Trump administration taps automakers to boost weapons production in WWII-style push
The Trump administration is turning to automakers and manufacturers to boost weapons production in a World War II-style Pentagon push, officials say.
Todd McShay’s Mock Draft Throws a Grenade at Vikings
For the last five weeks, nine out of ten NFL mock drafts have featured Oregon Safety Dillon Thieneman to the […]
Ronda Rousey steals the show with fiery Kayla Harrison rant
Ronda Rousey was at her very best during her time in the spotlight at the Palladium Times Square in New York, transforming the MVP MMA press conference into a war declaration on Kayla Harrison and the UFC. Despite being away from the octagon for almost a decade, Rousey remains atop the biggest ...
From Science Fiction to Force Structure: Directed Energy Is Here
Directed-energy weapons are reshaping air defense by countering drone swarms at low cost and near-instant speed. This analysis examines their operational limits, strategic implications, and role in future force design.
Democratic lawmakers seek fix to Colorado’s stalled prison population plan
Colorado’s prison population plan was designed to prevent overcrowding. Instead, eight months after it was triggered, the system remains strained and largely ineffective, prompting two Democratic lawmakers to push for changes through new legislation. According to its sponsors, Senate Bill 036 lays out the proposed changes. Sen. Mike Weissman and Sen. Julie Gonzales say the […]
Microsoft prepares display upgrades and two stage launch for new Surface Pro and Surface Laptop with Intel and Snapdragon chips this year
New Surface PCs from Microsoft will consist of new chips, display upgrades, and higher starting prices this spring and summer.
Tigers sign top prospect Kevin McGonigle to eight-year, $150 million extension
McGonigle is the latest in a lengthy list of top prospects who have signed long-term deals this spring
Preview: UFC Winnipeg Prelims
The UFC Winnipeg undercard features several debuting Canadian prospects—and the Octagon return of one well-remembered heavyweight character.
Rader Health Clinic Nurse Receives Life-Saving Award
A Rader Health Clinic nurse was recognized for her extraordinary actions in 2025 that helped save the life of a teenager during an incident at the Pentagon City Mall.
Voters ousted 3 politicians in Portland’s most purple county. Now they want comebacks
A record 14 candidates are vying for 3 seats in Clackamas County.
Is it legal to put political signs along Oregon highways? What law says
Is it legal to put political signs along Oregon highways? Here's what Oregon Department of Transportation says.
Catching up with Stars GM Jim Nill: Unfinished business, injury updates, playoff format and more
Nill, whose team has gone to three straight conference finals, signed a two-year extension recently: "We haven’t finished what we’re doing."
Aegon offloads 200-year-old UK business to Standard Life for £2bn
Deal will create pensions and savings group with 16m customers and £480bn of assets, while Aegon focuses on US
What Eric Swalwell, Tony Gonzales resignations mean for Mike Johnson’s agenda in Congress
The House faces a series of “must-pass” bills on everything from surveillance to the Iran war to the Department of Homeland Security.
Dutch Insurer Aegon Strikes $2.7B Deal to Sell UK Insurance Business to Standard Life
Aegon has agreed to sell its UK insurance business to Standard Life for a total value of 2 billion pounds ($2.7 billion), the Dutch insurer said on
Political strategists break down fallout of Swalwell and Gonzales’ resignations
Aegon to sell UK business for 2 billion pounds to Standard Life
Aegon said on Tuesday it had reached an agreement with Standard Life to divest its UK business for a total consideration of 2 billion pounds ($2.7 billion).
OR gov. vows fight after court says parts of reproductive rights act unconstitutional
Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek is criticizing an oral ruling in Oregon that found the Oregon Reproductive Health Equity Act unconstitutional.
Another US strike on suspected drug boat in the eastern Pacific kills 4
The U.S. military has launched a strike on another boat accused of carrying drugs in the eastern Pacific Ocean, killing four people | 830 WCCO
'It's been so stressful': Bend restaurant loses 90% of business after Shilo Inn closure
"IT'S BEEN SO STRESSFUL": A Bend restaurant says business dropped 90% after the Shilo Inn closed next door, and many people don’t realize it’s still open. The owner is asking the community to stop by and show support.
UW Football Spring Preview: Running Backs
Who’s Gone Jonah Coleman has been the keystone of the UW running back room for the last two seasons. While nagging injuries prevented him from consistently hitting fifth gear, he still rushed for 1811 yards (5.2 yards per carry) and 25 TDs over his two years in Seattle. He also proved himself an adept pass-catcher, […]
Oregon Ducks QB Dylan Raiola gives health update after broken leg
Oregon Ducks quarterback Dylan Raiola has been fully cleared after suffering a broke leg at the end of the 2025 season.
Democrats aim to keep their special election gains going: From the Politics Desk
Plus, Reps. Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales officially resign.
Overwatch launches on Nintendo Switch 2 with performance issues, Blizzard confirms patch in the works
Overwatch just launched on Nintendo Switch 2 today, but things haven’t gone smoothly. Soon after release, players reported issues with the port – notably with performance. Blizzard promised that the new Nintendo Switch 2 version would run up to 60 frames per second. However, some fans thought that the Nintendo Switch 1 version was accidentally uploaded since the action felt...
Swalwell and Gonzales resign from Congress under threat of expulsion
Reps. Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales resigned from Congress Tuesday, moments before their House colleagues were prepared to set in motion their swift removal.
Study finds no link between medical gender reassignment and improved mental health among young people
An extensive register-based study conducted in Finland has found an increase in severe mental health problems among some adolescents and young adults who have undergone medical gender reassignment (GR). ...
Microsoft raises prices on Surface PCs due to skyrocketing RAM costs
Microsoft Surface tablets, laptops and hybrids have all gone up in price. This brings the flagship 15-inch Laptop 7 to $1,600 and the 13-inch Pro 11 to $1,500.
Phoenix Suns bet on health and identity against Portland Trail Blazers in play-in showdown
PHOENIX — The Phoenix Suns enter Tuesday’s play-in matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers in a position they have rarely held this season: relatively healthy. Nov 18, 2025; Portland, Oregon, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) dribbles the ball during the first half against the Portland Trail Blazers at Moda Center.
Portland's Centennial Middle School identified as measles exposure site
A new measles exposure site has been confirmed at a Portland middle school, the Oregon Health Authority (OHA) announced on Tuesday.
Balloons Over Bend Brings Family Fun, Night Glows & High-Flying Entertainment to Central Oregon
The REMAX Key Properties Balloons Over Bend is set to return July 24–26, 2026, bringing a weekend of hot air balloon launches, live entertainment, and community celebration to Central Oregon. This signature summer event will feature free sunrise balloon launches each morning, vibrant Night Glow celebrations, and activities for all ages. “Bend is more than a […]
What Trump’s Deleted Social-Media Post Says About 2026 | WSJ Politics Newsletter for April 14
Plus, Reps. Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales say they plan to leave Congress in the wake of sexual-misconduct allegations
House returns as two lawmakers vow to resign amid scandals
Representatives Eric Swalwell, a California Democrat, and Tony Gonzales, a Texas Republican, announced Monday they would resign amid scrutiny over their conduct
49ers News: Gonna be a long night next Thursday
Your daily San Francisco 49ers news for Tuesday, April 14th, 2026
How Do Bigfoot Hunters Use Scientific Evidence? We Asked Two Sociologists Who Have Spent Years Among The Bigfooters
Bigfooting is a specific activity within the Bigfoot believer communities. Rather than being antagonistic to science, they mobilize science-like activities to support their views.
‘They can’t keep their zippers up’: Former Rep. Jackie Speier reacts to claims against Reps. Eric Swalwell, Tony Gonzalez
Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales of Texas says he will retire after admitting to affair with staffer
Gonzales had already said he would not seek reelection after admitting to an affair with a staff member who later died by suicide.
Eliot Wolf: 'Business as usual' foe Patriots before NFL Draft
There were no updates on two popular offseason topics: the looming extension for cornerback Christian Gonzalez and the pursuit of Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown.
Embattled GOP Rep. Tony Gonzales announces he’s stepping down from Congress
Embattled GOP Rep. Tony Gonzales announced on Monday that he will soon step down from Congress.
Oregon High School Football: West Linn releases schedule
High school football schedules for the 2026 season are coming out one-by-one out of every state around the country and one that is a breeding ground for college prospects is Oregon, with a number of squads finalizing their fall slates. The top high school football team out of the state of Oregon is the West […]
Dosa Divas hits the spot, even if some bites are overseasoned
This new RPG from the creators of Thirsty Suitors won’t take over your life
Air Force Reserve Chief Receives International Award for Global Health Leadership
The Air Force’s International Health Specialist program presented Lt. Gen. John P. Healy, Chief of Air Force Reserve and Commander of Air Force Reserve Command, with its International Health System Award in a ceremony at the Pentagon on April 7.
Fable still coming out this autumn, despite reports that developer Playground Games is "worried" about Grand Theft Auto 6
Fable is still slated to release this autumn, despite recent delay rumours suggesting it could slip into 2027.
EOU students win awards for their business ideas
LA GRANDE — Local university students and alumni made a big splash in April with their business ideas at the Eastern Oregon Innovation Jam. The Rural Engagement and Vitality Center […]
Prediction markets have exploded. What can they tell us about Oregon’s hottest primary race?
The state of the Republican gubernatorial primary has been hard to divine, but gamblers have thoughts.
FanDuel Sports Network, Cavaliers' local TV home, is gone. It's no surprise
FanDuel Sports Network ended locally with the close of the Cleveland Cavaliers' regular season. It's a sign of a more expensive viewing reality.
Column | Where have all the computer science majors gone?
Computer science has been one of the hottest college majors for 15 years. Enrollment data suddenly shows a big drop.
Baker Hughes sells Waygate unit to Hexagon for about $1.45 billion
Oilfield services provider Baker Hughes sold its Waygate Technologies unit to Swedish industrial technology group Hexagon for about $1.45 billion in cash, the two companies said on Monday.
Stop wasting time on hair myths: 5 science-backed secrets that can actually grow your hair
If you’ve ever gone down the rabbit hole of “hair growth hacks,” you already know how confusing it gets. Oil this, don’t oil that. Cut your hair, don’t cut your hair. Everyone seems to have an opinion - and half of it contradicts the other half.So let’s simplify things.Here are 5 science-backed habits that actually support better, healthier hair growth. No overnight miracles - just real, practical changes that make a difference over time.
Strikes on alleged drug boats kill 5, leave 1 survivor in eastern Pacific, US military says
The U.S. military says it blew up two boats accused of smuggling drugs in the eastern Pacific Ocean | KMBZ
Strikes on alleged drug boats kill 5, leave 1 survivor in eastern Pacific, US military says
The U.S. military says it blew up two boats accused of smuggling drugs in the eastern Pacific Ocean | 830 WCCO
8.8-inch OLED, Snapdragon 8 Gen 5: High-end compact tablet gets official launch date
Compact tablet enthusiasts have likely been awaiting more details regarding the Oppo Pad Mini tablet. As revealed by the company, the 8.8-inch OLED tablet powered by the Snapdragon 8 Gen 5 SoC is set to see the light of day later this month.
Oregon gets $200M to improve rural health care access
Oregon will receive nearly $200 million in federal funding this year to improve rural health care, with specific allocations for hospitals, clinics and public health, with additional project funding to
Masters hole of the day: The Eisenhower tree is long gone, but No. 17 plays toughest of all
The hole of the day Sunday during the final round of the Masters tournament:
Calls grow for Rep. Swalwell to resign or be expelled over misconduct claims
Several Democratic and Republican lawmakers said they would be in favor of voting to expel Swalwell, as well as Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), who both face misconduct allegations.
Nebraska baseball loses series 2-1 on the road against Oregon
No. 19 Nebraska baseball (27-9, 12-3) hit the road and lost a Big Ten series to Oregon (25-10, 9-5), dropping two games in the weekend outing. The series was highlighted by a lightning delay Friday night, three Case Sanderson home runs and a close rubber match on Sunday.
GameThread: Tigers vs. Marlins, 1:40 p.m.
Detroit Tigers (6-9) vs. Miami Marlins (8-7) Time/Place: 1:40 p.m., Comerica ParkOpponent Site: Fish On FirstMedia: Detroit SportsNet, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio NetworkPitching Matchup: LHP Tarik Skubal (1-2, 2.55 ERA) vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara (2-0, 0.74 ERA) Lineups MARLINS TIGERS Austin Slater – RF Kevin McGonigle – SS Agustin Ramirez – C Gleyber Torres – 2B Jakob Marsee – CF Colt Keith […]
Some House members say they'll vote to expel Reps. Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales
Reps. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif., and Tony Gonzalez, R-Texas, have faced sexual misconduct allegations from former staffers.
Snapdragon X2 Elite Offers A Solid Foundation For A Windows On ARM Ecosystem, But OEMs Current Strategy Risk Its Future
Qualcomm has made incredible strides with the Snapdragon X2 Elite, but OEMs using the SoC risk that higher adoption with their current strategies
Sports Highlights
Chris Hayashi: Chris Hayashi, a senior on the Lake Oswego boys track team, put in one of the best efforts of the season during his team’s meet against Oregon City […]
SDFC's winless run extended, downed 2-1 by Minnesota United
San Diego FC’s winless streak continues to grow, falling in back-to-back matches after a 2-1 Saturday night loss to Minnesota United FC at Snapdragon Stadium.
New clinic brings at-home health care to La Plata, San Juan counties
HERMOSA – The practice of a doctor traveling to a patient’s home to deliver care – as opposed to the patient traveling to a medical campus or visiting a doctor in an office – is largely bygone. Accord...
Dragon Age: Inquisition Servers Going Offline Later This Month
The online features have outlasted many live-service games, including Bioware’s own Anthem
Spring volleyball: Nebraska tops Iowa State in Sioux Falls
Nebraska volleyball handled business in its first spring match against Iowa State on Saturday, April 11, inside the Sanford Pentagon. Before the match, the two teams agreed to play four sets, as the Huskers won all four (25-17, 25-16, 25-16, 26-24).
Scientists Baffled by Bizarre “Living Fossil” From 275 Million Years Ago
Tanyka amnicola is a newly identified ancient tetrapod known from unusual twisted jawbones adapted for grinding plants. This rare herbivorous “living fossil” helps scientists better understand early evolution and ecosystems in Gondwana. In a dry riverbed in Brazil, deep within a forest near the A
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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