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Scientists Say Black Holes Are Breaking Their Own Rules of Physics
A new study suggests that influence from fermionic fields could be causing black holes to defy one of their own core rules.
Survey Shows Widespread Use of Apps and Chatbots for Mental Health Support
A survey by the Bipartisan Policy Center highlights growing use of digital and AI-powered tools for mental health, with strong adoption among younger adults and key access gaps in rural communities.
Protecting kids from deceptive and unsubstantiated health claims: the FTC’s case against TruHeight
Parents and kids (like all consumers) need clear, truthful information to make informed decisions — especially when those decisions affect their children’s health and physical safety. With that in mind, the FTC is working to protect kids and teens from deceptive health claims. Take the Agency’s recent case: the FTC charged Vanilla Chip LLC, which does business as TruHeight, with using unsubstantiated health claims and fake or incentivized reviews to market its supplements to kids, teenagers, and caregivers.
Why so Americans are using AI for health guidance
Turning to artificial intelligence tools for health advice has become a habit for many other Americans, according to a West Health–Gallup Center on Healthcare in America poll published Wednesday.
Google now lets you explore the web side-by-side with AI Mode
Now, when you're using AI Mode on Chrome desktop, clicking a link will open the webpage side-by-side with AI Mode.
Gatorade, inventor of the sports drink, is getting a rebrand targeting non-athletes
Sixty years after it invented sports drinks, Gatorade is making a surprising pivot: It's no longer focusing primarily on athletes.
Gemini app using Personal Intelligence, Photos for tailored Nano Banana generation
With the international expansion underway, Gemini is now bringing together Personal Intelligence, Google Photos, and Nano Banana 2.
Gatorade, inventor of the sports drink, is getting a rebrand targeting non-athletes
Sixty years after it invented sports drinks, Gatorade is making a surprising pivot: It’s no longer focusing primarily on athletes.
Get Real With SOMD Politics: Chuck Borges Discusses Housing Affordability, Economic Development And Tax Reform
ANNAPOLIS, Md. — On a recent episode of “Get Real with Southern Maryland Politics,” host Chris Hill sat down with state Senate District 29 candidate Chuck Borges for a wide-ranging discussion about his background, career, and priorities for Southern Maryland. Borges, a 23-year U.S. Navy veteran, said he came to Southern Maryland in 2004 for test pilot […]
One in Four Use AI for Health Information
One in four US adults report using artificial intelligence tools or chatbots for physical or mental health information.
UNC Hussman offers new sports play-by-play class | UNC Hussman School of Journalism and Media
This story, written by UNC Hussman alumna Caroline Daly ’24, was originally published on unc.edu. The UNC Hussman School of Journalism and Media has a new, hands-on class available for students interested in sports careers. Students in “MEJO 390: Sports Commentary and Play-By-Play” can call live radio broadcasts for Carolina sporting events, streamed live on the Go Heels website. This spring, 11 students are calling mostly softball games to gain experience and learn the preparation needed for a successful broadcast. The class is capped at a small number to provide consistent, individual feedback. Matt Krause, the radio voice of Carolina women’s basketball, teaches the class to help students sharpen their skills, using his experience with the Tar Heels and calling games for ACC Network and ACC Network Extra. “There is no substitute for live reps, and that is the only way you get better. The classroom component teaches you how to get better, but going about that requires sitting in that chair, making mistakes and being able to know your broadcast is going somewhere,” Krause said. “These students are doing real live games, and they will have tape where if they want to pursue this. They will have ready-made demos to send for jobs. Being able to utilize all the resources of UNC, GoHeels Productions and the Carolina Athletics brand and create these opportunities for students is really impactful.” In the class, students learn fundamentals like how to announce starting lineups for different sports and how to conduct research before games. Krause has led the class in mock preparation exercises, looking at game charts with information about the different teams and players that they can refer to at pivotal moments during the game. Krause and the students then critique each other, listening to clips from the past week to find ways to improve. It’s a rare class without a slew of quizzes or assignments. Their main tasks are calling games and making a portfolio or demo reel of their best calls at the end of the semester, all with the goal of being ready to step into similar roles after graduation. Laible live streams her coverage on the GoHeels website. Calling a live game while broadcasting her coverage allows her to get hands on experience. (Jon Gardiner/UNC-Chapel Hill) Junior Anna Laible ’27 wished for a class just like this. Her first year at Carolina, she interned with the Coastal Plain League, where she was introduced to play-by-play for baseball. “I enjoy the challenge and uncertainty of each game being different because each sport looks a little different,” said Laible. “Each game is different — not just with teams but what could happen with certain records being broken or random trends. That’s what I enjoy most.” She wanted more opportunities for reps during college to prepare for a career after Carolina, so she pitched an idea for the class to Livis Freeman ’99, distinguished associate professor of sports communication. Laible and Freeman reached out to GoHeels Productions for a partnership and then connected with Krause. “This is how at UNC Hussman we separate ourselves: Our students go into the field ready,” said Freeman. “The biggest compliment we get it is when our students start their careers, they don’t need any hand-holding.” Laible calls a Carolina softball game at Kessing Stadium – after pitching the idea to Hussman faculty. Her interest in sports commentary allowed her to apply her interest as she attends Carolina. (Jon Gardiner/UNC-Chapel Hill) Laible is now a student in the class, which has helped her strengthen her skills and deepen her passion for the field. The goal is to expand to other sports like soccer, lacrosse and field hockey. “The hands-on experience I’ve gotten here is invaluable. I’ve loved the classes and professors because they’ve taught me a lot, but it’s also the things outside of class, too, that have helped me grow,” said Laible. “Since being at UNC, I’ve grown a lot in the versatility, from doing writing to production and commentating. UNC Hussman and Carolina have given me the ability to be strong and well rounded.”
Living in rent-stabilized NYC apartment; feel stuck after 5 years
Winning New York City's affordable-housing lottery got me a rent-stabilized apartment. It's too small for my family, but giving it up isn't an option.
Roku’s Platform Crosses 100 Million Users, Fueling Ad Business
Roku Inc. said more than 100 million households are using its streaming platform, marking another milestone as the company continues to leverage that customer base to fuel its growing advertising business.
Gatorade, inventor of the sports drink, is getting a rebrand targeting non-athletes
Sixty years after it invented sports drinks, Gatorade is making a surprising pivot: It’s no longer focusing primarily on athletes.
The 2026 International Academicians Hong Kong Forum Held in Hong Kong, Focusing on AI-Driven Innovation in Health and Higher Education
The 2026 International Academicians Hong Kong Forum, jointly organised by the International Alliance of Academicians (IAA) and the Hong Kong Association of Overseas-Returned Scholars (HKAORS), was successfully held in Hong Kong on April 14. As one of the major events of the Business of Innovation and Technology Week 2026, the Forum focused on two core themes: "Aging and Chronic Disease Management: Challenges and Innovations" and "AI and Innovation in Higher Education." It brought together more t
Apple Pushes Siri Programmers to Adopt AI Coding Tools
Apple plans to send “a significant chunk” of its Siri programmers to a weekslong bootcamp to learn to code using artificial intelligence, The Information
Justice Jackson calls out Supreme Court conservatives' pro-Trump emergency orders
Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson has delivered a sustained attack on her conservative colleagues’ use of emergency orders to benefit the Trump administration, calling the orders “scratch-paper musings” that can “seem oblivious and thus ring hollow.”
How low should blood pressure go? Science has the answer
New research suggests that aiming for a lower blood pressure target may deliver bigger heart health benefits than previously thought. Using large datasets and simulation models, scientists found that keeping systolic blood pressure below 120 mm Hg could reduce the risk of heart attack, stroke, and heart failure more than higher targets.
China doubles ‘AI for science’ computing scale in 2 months using no US chips
The Zhengzhou core node becomes the country’s most powerful scientific intelligent computing infrastructure, CCTV says.
Siri Engineers Sent to AI Coding Bootcamp as Apple Prepares to Deliver Siri Overhaul
Apple is sending a large portion of its Siri engineers to a multi-week bootcamp to learn to code using AI, reports The Information. Apple's decision to teach its programmers to better use AI for coding comes just two months before Apple is expected to unveil a smarter, more capable version of Siri at WWDC. While employees attend the coding bootcamp, around 60 members of the Siri development team will stick around to work on Siri, and an additional 60 will evaluate how Siri is performing.
Jury finds that Ticketmaster and Live Nation had an anticompetitive monopoly
The civil case accused Live Nation of using its reach to smother competition — by blocking venues from using multiple ticket sellers, for example
River City Science Academy teacher arrested, accused ‘grooming’ student using messages on Canva app
A River City Science Academy teacher was arrested Tuesday and charged with felony counts alleging he solicited a romantic relationship with a student and unlawfully used a communication device, the Jacksonville Sheriff’s Office said.
Governor Ivey Signs Bills to Enhance Alabamians’ Health and Healthcare Delivery -
MONTGOMERY – Governor Kay Ivey has signed several bills into law this session to improve the availability and delivery of healthcare services for all Alabamians. She also signed a bill to encourage people using Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits … Continued
Galaxy devices ditch some image data using AirDrop over Quick Share, fix coming
After a monumental update allowed Galaxy S26 phones to share with Apple’s iOS devices using AirDrop, some users are reporting...
Get Real With SOMD Politics: Michael Bennett Discusses Data Centers, Housing And Taxes
CALVERT COUNTY, Md. — On a recent episode of “Get Real with Southern Maryland Politics,” host Chris Hill sat down with Calvert County Commissioner District 3 candidate Michael Bennett for a conversation covering his background, priorities, and vision for the county. Bennett, who moved to Calvert County in 2014 on a military transfer, described the county as […]
Walmart is updating its 4K streaming box with Gemini and Matter support
The new Onn 4K Pro could make it easier to search for something to watch using Google’s upgraded assistant.
Scientists think alien life might be hiding in patterns
A new study proposes detecting life in space by spotting patterns across many planets instead of focusing on one at a time. If life spreads and changes planetary environments, it could leave behind statistical clues linking planets together. These patterns may reveal life even when traditional biosignatures are unclear or misleading. The method could help scientists prioritize which planets are most likely to host life.
Grok’s sexual deepfakes almost got it banned from Apple’s App Store. Almost.
The back-and-forth explains xAI’s confusing policy changes.
Future Energy, Renewable Energy, Technology, InCites use case, web of science use case, research analytics
Perovskite solar cells are emerging as a transformative next-generation energy technology driven by rapid efficiency gains and global research competition. Based on a collaborative analysis between Sungkyunkwan University and Clarivate using Web of Science and InCites, this blog explores key research trends, leading countries and scholars, and the future trajectory of perovskite solar cells toward sustainable energy innovation.
How the streaming dream turned sports on TV into a costly maze
What began as a fan-friendly revolution has splintered into a confusing, expensive web of subscriptions, blackouts and ads
Faith coalition wins pledges from Miami-Dade leaders on housing, mental health
About 800 residents packed the church to demand local leaders commit to making changes.
New homeowner penalty is making it a terrible time to buy a first home
Soaring housing costs have put recent homebuyers at a steep disadvantage. The effects could warp America's real estate market for decades.
How Midi Health is using AI to transform care and scale fast
Midi Health is using AI to train providers and scale care for menopausal women. Here's how it built its own chatbot and reshaped operations.
Americans Turning to AI to Supplement Healthcare Visits
One in four Americans use AI for health information. Most do so to supplement care, but some are using AI in place of a provider visit when barriers arise.
95% of people carry this virus and scientists may have just found how to stop it
Scientists have taken a major step toward stopping Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), an extremely common infection linked to cancer and chronic disease. By using mice engineered with human antibody genes, researchers created powerful human-like antibodies that block the virus from attaching to and entering immune cells. One of these antibodies completely prevented infection in lab models with human immune systems, marking a breakthrough after years of difficulty tackling EBV’s ability to invade nearly all B cells.
Sony is nerfing its Bravia TVs' program guide
Sony is removing some features for Bravia television owners using an over the air antenna or a set top box.
Roundup: Business optimism / Cleveland’s housing answer / America at 250
Slipping further: U.S. small business optimism fell for a third straight month in March, hitting its lowest level in nearly a year as the Iran conflict drove up energy costs and uncertainty. Owners reported weaker expectations for profits, sales and economic conditions, while plans for capital spending dropped sharply. Rising input costs are also prompting […]
Current Capital One Venture Business welcome bonus offer
The current bonus offer on the Capital One Venture Business provides new cardholders the chance to earn valuable Capital One miles. Here's what you need to know.
Using atomic nuclei could allow scientists to read time more precisely than ever
Most clocks, from wristwatches to the systems that run GPS and the internet, work by tracking regular, repeating motions.
Apple Releases Second iOS 26.5, iPadOS 26.5, tvOS 26.5 and watchOS 26.5 Public Betas
Apple today provided public beta testers with the second releases of upcoming iOS 26.5, iPadOS 26.5, watchOS 26.5, and tvOS 26.5 updates for testing purposes. The public betas come a day after Apple provided the betas to developers. After signing up for beta testing on Apple's beta site, public beta testers can download the updates using the Software Update section of the Settings app on each device.
New investigative newsroom launches at ASU's Howard Center for Investigative Journalism
A new investigative newsroom focusing on accountability reporting, innovation and experimentation with AI-driven tools launches today at the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication as part of the Howard Center for Investigative Journalism.The Beam is a multimedia newsroom that produces in-depth, high-impact reporting on issues that matter to Arizona communities, while building modern tools for the public to engage directly with the decision-makers shaping their lives.
Diarrhea-causing infection increasing in US, CDC says
Officials called the increase "a public health threat," especially since shigella is spread easily from person to person.
What They Are Saying: Small Business Owners Share How They’re Using 20% Small Business Deduction Savings
WASHINGTON, D.C. (April 14, 2026) – In a new video, NFIB member and Texas small business owner, Marcie Rodriguez, describes how making the 20% Small Business Deduction permanent has benefited her metal recycling company. Rodriguez explains how the deduction has allowed her to plan raises for employe
The Idaho Business Review Interviews of Highly Effective People: Andrea Cantor
Andrea Cantor, raised in Boise, is the new director of the city's Economic Development department, focusing on business growth and community partnerships.
Capital One closes Spark Miles, launches Venture Business
The Capital One Spark Miles is no longer open to new applicants, but the Venture Business has arrived to offer solid perks in its place.
Health Systems Supporting Local Healthy Housing Goals
Safe, stable and healthy housing is foundational to public health, but the housing stock in many communities are met with hazards like lead, mold, pests and insufficient heating.
The best, boldest and most 'wait, what?' Coachella outfits — from Hailey Bieber's peekaboo lace to Joe Jonas's dad shorts
Celebrities are using Coachella as their runway. Here's a look at the best fashion from weekend one.
Scientists just recreated a rare cosmic reaction never seen before
A breakthrough experiment has shed new light on one of astrophysics’ biggest mysteries: the origin of rare proton-rich elements. For the first time, scientists directly measured a key reaction that creates selenium-74 using a rare isotope beam. The results sharpen models of how these elements form in supernova explosions, cutting uncertainty in half. But the findings also reveal gaps in current theories, hinting that the story isn’t complete yet.
DOJ ‘weaponization’ report accuses Biden administration of biased prosecutions against anti-abortion protesters
The Trump Justice Department released a new report Tuesday accusing the Biden administration of unfairly using a federal law meant to protect access to abortion clinics to go after anti-abortion protesters.
Blackmagic's DaVinci Resolve 21 takes on Adobe Lightroom with a new Photo page
Many creators are now using DaVinci Resolve instead of Adobe Premiere, and now Blackmagic Design is going after Photoshop.
30 Under 30 Europe Science & Healthcare 2026: The Founders Using AI To Empower Patients And Unlock Scientific Mysteries
These young entrepreneurs, researchers and doctors are improving healthcare, empowering patients and building the hardware of the future.
Grasp Hires Chevalier as New Chief Executive
Grasp Technologies has appointed Maria Chevalier as CEO, succeeding Chris Wilson. Chevalier, a former corporate travel buyer, has extensive experience in travel management and previously served on Grasp's board. Her goals include focusing on innovation and client-centric strategies.
Anthropic's AI Assistant Claude Is Now Available in Microsoft Word
If you're using Word, you can now try out an alternative AI tool to Copilot, though it's only in beta testing for now.
Housing and homelessness: Solutions at the intersection of public health and public safety | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
Leaders across public health and public safety convened for this Studio conversation that moves beyond emergency response toward prevention, housing-first strategies, and long-term solutions.
GFWAR: The Missing Middle - Why Attainable Housing Matters for Fort Worth’s Business Community
Learn more about attainable housing in this sponsored article by Greater Fort Worth Association of REALTORS.
How California Can Improve Access to Mental Health Services | Pomona College in Claremont, California
Professor Sara Masland examines existing barriers to accessing mental health services, the risks associated with using AI as a therapist and the importance of early intervention in the state’s new Mental Health for All initiative.
Julie’s new AI chatbot aims to fix a major gap in women’s health information
The emergency contraception brand is using a chatbot to answer the questions Gen Z is already asking online.
Smart Adhesive Is Key to Crease-Free Foldable iPhone Display
Advances in optically clear adhesive (OCA) will be a key factor in achieving a near-invisible crease in Apple's first foldable iPhone expected later this year, according to TrendForce. The supply chain intelligence firm outlined the key technologies in a new report on foldable display innovation, explaining that creases form when layers within the display panel fall out of alignment, concentrating stress at the fold and causing micro-cracks or permanent deformation over time.
How 3 small Gainesville businesses are using — or rejecting
As the integration of AI becomes more prominent, local businesses are deciding how far they are willing to incorporate it into their systems.
AI usage limits are causing some people to restructure their workdays
Session limits on AI tools can frustrate users who are forced to rejigger their workdays. Others like a chance to hit the gym and see friends.
Sand, science and strategy: Strengthening the shores of Presque Isle
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Buffalo District, has just released a very interesting video named ‘Sand, science and strategy: Strengthening the Shores of Presque Isle’. This video shows how the Buffalo District – using modern technology and hands-on expertise – fights erosion and protects the coastline of Presque Isle for the future: This content […]
Watch: As AI Makes More Health Coverage Decisions, The Risks To Patients Grow
This year, executives from nearly every major health insurance company made the same declaration in calls with Wall Street analysts: Using artificial intelligence to make coverage decisions would help save them money.
Stop wasting time on hair myths: 5 science-backed secrets that can actually grow your hair
If you’ve ever gone down the rabbit hole of “hair growth hacks,” you already know how confusing it gets. Oil this, don’t oil that. Cut your hair, don’t cut your hair. Everyone seems to have an opinion - and half of it contradicts the other half.So let’s simplify things.Here are 5 science-backed habits that actually support better, healthier hair growth. No overnight miracles - just real, practical changes that make a difference over time.
Scientists were wrong about lifespan. Your genes matter way more than we thought
For years, scientists believed our lifespan was mostly shaped by environment and chance, with genetics playing only a minor role. But a new study from the Weizmann Institute flips that idea on its head, revealing that genes may actually account for about half of the differences in how long people live. By analyzing massive twin datasets—including twins raised apart—and using innovative simulations to filter out deaths from accidents and other external causes, researchers uncovered a hidden genetic influence that had been masked for decades.
Porsche Patents Racing Stripes That Appear When You Switch Into Sport Mode
Using an electrical current to change the outward appearance of certain body panels, this Porsche tech could make racing stripes appear on command.
Virginia Mercury wins multiple Virginia Press Association awards
The Virginia Press Association recognized the outstanding work of dozens of news publications across the state on April 11 in Lynchburg, with The Virginia Mercury receiving first and second place awards across multiple categories for reporting and column writing in 2025. • Health and housing reporter Charlotte Rene Woods and editor-in-chief Samantha Willis earned the […]
Snapdragon X2 Elite Offers A Solid Foundation For A Windows On ARM Ecosystem, But OEMs Current Strategy Risk Its Future
Qualcomm has made incredible strides with the Snapdragon X2 Elite, but OEMs using the SoC risk that higher adoption with their current strategies
Neandertals may have hunted and eaten outsiders, chilling cannibalism study finds
A cave in Belgium has revealed unsettling evidence that Neandertals selectively cannibalized outsiders, focusing on women and children. The victims weren’t from the local group and appear to have been treated like prey, with bones butchered for meat and marrow. This suggests the behavior wasn’t ritual, but practical—or possibly linked to intergroup conflict. The discovery paints a darker, more complex picture of Neandertal life during their final millennia.
How aggressive breast cancer turns off the immune system
Researchers are launching a new project to crack the mystery of aggressive breast cancer, where predicting disease progression remains a major hurdle. By studying how tumors interact with and suppress the immune system, scientists aim to identify new biomarkers that reveal how the cancer evolves. Using real patient samples, the team hopes to turn earlier discoveries into practical clinical tools. The goal: more precise, personalized treatments that can outsmart even the most dangerous tumors.
Local brothers use T-shirt business to give back to charity
Two local brothers are turning creativity into something much bigger than a business—they’re using it to give back to their community and bring people together.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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