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Democrats vow to block next Trump Supreme Court pick amid Alito speculation
Justice Samuel Alito hasn’t tipped his hat on retiring just yet, but Senate Democrats are already entrenched in opposing the confirmation of a successor that would deliver President Donald Trump his fourth lifetime appointment to the high court. Democrats need to first retake the majority and for a vacancy to arise. But with the party’s […]
Trump administration live updates: N.J. voters head to the polls for special House election
Get live updates and the latest news on the Trump administration as New Jersey voters head to the polls for special election to fill New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill's former House seat and the House votes on protections from deportation for Haitian immigrants.
How Jesse Helms Paved the Way for Donald Trump
While Senator Jesse Helms, who died in 2008, would have been scandalized by Trump, the two men shared many political attributes.
Trump administration taps automakers to boost weapons production in WWII-style push
The Trump administration is turning to automakers and manufacturers to boost weapons production in a World War II-style Pentagon push, officials say.
The gamble in Trump’s Iran blockade that could decide the war
President Donald Trump’s switch from kinetic to economic warfare with his blockade of Iran’s ships and ports is an attempt to end the conflict without a new US-Israeli onslaught.
Ex-Trump election lawyer John Eastman disbarred in California
More than five years after he pushed a plan to help Donald Trump cling to power after losing the 2020 election, the president’s former election lawyer John Eastman has lost his license to practice law in the state of California.
DNI Tulsi Gabbard sends criminal referral over Trump’s 2019 impeachment to Justice Department
Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard sent at least one criminal referral to the Justice Department seeking investigations of a whistleblower complaint and its handling by the intelligence community watchdog that led to the 2019 impeachment of President Donald Trump, a spokesperson for Gabbard’s office confirmed Wednesday.
House Democrats attempt anti-corruption message to gain traction against Trump
Days after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was ousted by an opposition campaign with an anti-corruption message, Democrats want to try the same playbook against President Donald Trump before the midterm elections.
The key deadlines that could shape the future of the Iran war: From the Politics Desk
Plus, an exclusive interview with Sen. Thom Tillis on Trump, the Fed and more.
Inside the growing tensions between Donald Trump and Keir Starmer
BBC’s Sarah Smith examines how the Iran war has led to discrepancies between the US president and UK prime minister.
President Trump joins Maria Bartiromo to discuss key issues
President Donald Trump joins FOX Business' Maria Bartiromo in a sit down interview to discuss key issues facing the United States
Protester yells 'Jesus Christ does not support genocide' at JD Vance
The moment came after an event host asked Vice President JD Vance about a spat between President Donald Trump and Pope Leo XIV.
Donald Trump messed with the wrong pope
Trump fought with Pope Francis before. He’s finding Pope Leo XIV to be a tougher foil.
‘Textbook blasphemy’: Notre Dame students surprised and dismayed by Trump’s feud with Pope Leo
At one of the United States’ best-known Catholic institutions, students were siding with Pope Leo XIV over President Donald Trump in the wake of Trump’s clash with the pontiff over the Iran war and raising concerns about his recent social media post seemingly depicting himself as Jesus.
UF opens Whitney Marine Research Center, expanding marine science innovation in St. Augustine
The University of Florida celebrated the opening of its new Whitney Marine Research Center on April 14, marking a significant expansion of marine science research, education and conservation efforts at the Whitney Laboratory for Marine Bioscience.
Trump recalls how Ginsburg’s death affected the Supreme Court as he discusses whether Alito should retire
President Donald Trump complimented Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito but when asked about him stepping down while Republicans are in control, he pointed to how Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death shifted the court.
In letter to Xi, Trump asks China not to send weapons to Iran
Trump warns China against supplying weapons to Iran, says Xi Jinping responded with a letter claiming he is not providing arms to the country.
Trump unloads on Powell, says he could fire Fed chair over ‘incompetence’
President Donald Trump joins FOX Business' Maria Bartiromo to discuss the AI race with China, Iran tensions, NATO clashes, and his push to overhaul the Fed while touting a strong U.S. economy and global strength.
Live updates: Senate to vote on reining in Trump's Iran war powers
Get live updates and the latest news as Senate votes on reining in Trump's Iran war powers and Vance rebukes Pope Leo over his criticisms of U.S. foreign policy.
Trump predicts oil prices will drop ‘tremendously’ despite recent surge
President Donald Trump sits down with FOX Business' Maria Bartiromo to discuss escalating Middle East tensions, his warning to Iran on nuclear weapons and why he believes gas prices will drop ahead of the midterms.
Iran latest: Trump predicts Iran war 'very close to over' in FOX Business interview
President Donald Trump suggested the end of the Iran war may be in sight, telling FOX Business' Maria Bartiromo, "I think it’s close to over, yeah. I view it as very close to being over."
As Vance rallies with Turning Point, some supporters bristle at Trump's war, memes and feuds
Vice President JD Vance used a Turning Point USA event to defend President Donald Trump’s aggression in Iran and downplay the resulting tensions between Washington and the Vatican | WBEN
Trump says Iran war is 'very close to being over' as peace talks are expected to resume
Donald Trump says the U.S.-Iran war is "very close" to an end amid a two-week ceasefire, as U.S. and Iranian negotiators prepare to restart peace talks Thursday.
Byron Donalds says Ron DeSantis wanted him to chair Florida GOP
A gubernatorial endorsement didn't help way back when.
Trump again rejects Colorado amid accusations of playing politics with disaster aid
FORT COLLINS, Colo. (AP) — President Donald Trump has again denied a request from Colorado's governor to help people affected by wildfires and flooding, consistent with his approval of major disaster aid to Republican-leaning states at about twice the rate he approves aid requests from Democratic...
Trump again rejects Colorado amid accusations of playing politics with disaster aid
President Donald Trump has again denied a request from Colorado’s governor to help people affected by wildfires and flooding.
Trump again rejects Colorado amid accusations of playing politics with disaster aid
President Donald Trump has again denied a request from Colorado’s governor to help people affected by wildfires and flooding
Democrats float 25th Amendment commission for Trump
Democrats in Congress introduce a bill to invoke the 25th Amendment against President Donald Trump, citing national security concerns.
Republicans’ big 2026 problem: An unhinged Trump who doesn’t seem to care about them
It’s almost as if President Donald Trump doesn’t care that what he’s doing could torpedo the GOP’s hopes in less than seven months — because Congress doesn’t matter much to his view of power.
Patriots draft profile: Kayden McDonald is a dominant run defender
The Ohio State product is the best defensive tackle in this class.
Redesigned Trump Phone Finally Emerges on Overhauled Trump Mobile Website
Trump Mobile now features a third design of the T1 phone, alongside images and videos of Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. There's still no release date.
U.S. wholesale prices surged 4% last month during the Iran war
The surge in prices complicates the work of the inflation fighters at the Federal Reserve, who have faced intense pressure from President Donald Trump to lower their benchmark interest rate. But some Fed policymakers are inclined to raise rates instead, as higher energy costs increase the inflation threat.
College of Science and Notre Dame Research inaugural Days of Service: A look back at 2025
Katrina Conrad and Barbara Calhoun, who both administer the science and patient advocacy minor in the College of Science, volunteered at Ronald McDonald House …
Holland & Knight Health Dose: April 14, 2026 | Insights
President Donald Trump released his budget request for fiscal year (FY) 2027, laying out his vision for how federal funding will be spent over the next year.
The economic game of chicken between Iran and the US is about to enter a dangerous new phase
Iran has been winning its economic game of chicken with President Donald Trump.
Italy's surprise rise in exports to US masks deep fragility to tariffs
Italy was the only major EU country whose exports to the United States grew last year despite Donald Trump's tariffs. The result was hailed by Rome's government, but a closer look at the data shows one-off factors at play and little underlying resilience.
Iran crisis epitomizes a world increasingly resistant to Trump’s demands
The iron laws of the world that govern Donald Trump’s presidency — strength, force and power — are increasingly being challenged at home and abroad.
How the Trump family's business deals could open the door for future presidents to profit from office
For the Trump family, business is booming. Whereas the Trump Organization didn’t do a single deal overseas in Donald Trump's first term as president, it did eight in the past year.
How the Trump family's business deals could open the door for future presidents to profit from office
For the Trump family, business is booming. Whereas the Trump Organization didn’t do a single deal overseas in Donald Trump's first term as president, it did eight in the past year.
Fact-checking Trump's claim that Pope Leo supports nuclear weapons in Iran
President Donald Trump issued a flurry of statements Sunday against Pope Leo XIV, saying in part that the U.S.-born pope supports Iran having a nuclear weapon. However, the pope has specifically spoken against nuclear weapons and their devastation.
Trump's Iran war deepens the GOP's midterm challenges: From the Politics Desk
Plus, Trump vs. the pope.
Donalds says FL should counter Democrats by redistricting. That’s illegal here
Byron Donalds said “Florida needs to respond” to Virginia by redrawing Congressional districts, but partisan gerrymandering is barred here.
The U.S. is short 10 million houses. A new White House report lays out a blueprint to fix that
President Donald Trump has taken some steps to make it easier to build houses, but he's been slow to embrace other measures.
Trump, 79, Raises Fresh Health Concerns After Unbelievable Mix-Up
Donald Trump’s critics are pointing to one explanation for the president’s apparent mix-up of Jesus Christ and a Red Cross doctor: cognitive decline. After the president, 79, was lambasted—including b...
WATCH LIVE: President Donald Trump speaks to reporters
President Donald Trump speaks to reporters.
'View' stars slam Donald Trump sharing image of himself as Jesus: 'Blasphemous'
'The View' star Sunny Hostin called for the use of the 25th amendment after Donald Trump shared image of himself as Jesus: 'God is not to be mocked,' added former Trump staffer Alyssa Farah Griffin.
Poll: Democrats gaining ground, key races tighten in Florida as Donald Trump drags GOP
Independent voters are breaking sharply toward Democrats, a shift pollsters say could reshape Florida’s political map after years of Republican dominance.
Business Notes: NSU raises $147M; McDonald’s to open in Virginia Beach
Norfolk State University’s Now Is Our Time campaign raised $147 million, exceeding its original $90 million goal. View the latest business news in Hampton Roads.
Live updates: Swalwell drops bid for California governor; Trump and Pope Leo feud
Get live updates and the latest news as Eric Swalwell drops his bid for California governor amid sexual misconduct allegations and Trump feuds with Pope Leo over his criticism of the Iran war.
What Does Artificial Intelligence Really Mean for Global Politics?
As AI increasingly plays a central role in conflict and war, experts discuss its long-term impact on global politics.
Trump’s strait blockade risks another serious blow to the global economy
The failure of US-Iran peace talks leaves President Donald Trump with a set of unattractive options that are unlikely to hand him a decisive or swift victory.
Trump says Pope Leo is ‘terrible for foreign policy’
US President Donald Trump strongly criticized Pope Leo XIV on Truth Social on Sunday evening, claiming he is “weak on crime” and “terrible for foreign policy.”
Trump lambasts Pope Leo XIV, extending feud over Iran war with first American pontiff
President Donald Trump is sharply criticizing Pope Leo XIV, saying the U_S_-born pope is “not doing a very good job” and is “a very liberal person.”
Bruce Springsteen's former drummer pushes back on the Boss's political attacks on Trump: 'Gotta have respect'
Bruce Springsteen's former drummer Vini Lopez speaks out against the Boss's anti-Trump rhetoric, saying everyone should respect the president.
Byron Donalds to announce industry-focused workforce initiative
The candidate for Governor will announce his LaunchPad plans as part of his 'Defending the Florida Dream' tour.
Oil prices rise after Trump threatens to block passage through Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices topped $100 a barrel again on Sunday after President Donald Trump said the US would blockade “any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” threatening to further disrupt oil flows.
Byron Donalds: Regime change is imminent in Cuba
Amid rising tensions between the U.S. and Cuba, Donalds claims the fall of the Communist dicatorship will come as the economy worsens.
Tucker Carlson calls Donald Trump 'slave' to Israel amid Iran war
Conservative commentator Tucker Carlson called President Donald Trump a "slave" to Israel, blaming the country for entering the Iran war.
Politics Now: April 11, 2026
This week on Politics Now with host John Langeler: Rep. Susie Lee (D) on the War in Iran, DHS funding and her recent profanity laced social media post targeting President Donald Trump. The debate o…
Educate, empower, and advocate: Mercy Medical Center midwife discusses Black Maternal Health Week
Mercy Medical Center midwife Kia Hollis joins Jenyne Donaldson to discuss Black Maternal Health Week.
'Steve Witkoff, Trump's favorite negotiator, boosts his business more than peace'
COLUMN. The billionaire's fortune has risen by 15% since Donald Trump appointed him special envoy for peace, historian Jean-Pierre Filiu observes in his column.
Why Trump is threatening to blockade a strait that Iran is already blockading
President Donald Trump is threatening to close off the Strait of Hormuz — a crucial waterway that he has repeatedly told Iran must be reopened unconditionally.
Donald Trump's Incompetence Is Costing Him the Country: Commentary
Donald Trump has led us to chaos — war with Iran, spiking gas prices, unstable markets — that may lose him the Republican party and the nation.
Analysis: Trump says he always wins, and the Iran war is the latest example
In an analysis of how Donald Trump treats almost every setback as a win and repeats it until many people doubt the loss, Associated Press writer Will Weissert cites the war with Iran as one of the latest examples.
Democrats see gas prices as a potent political tool. Here’s the catch.
President Donald Trump’s attack on Iran sent gas prices surging, giving Democrats’ focus on affordability more traction if they can get voters to trust them.
John Donaldson, the father of Denmark's Australian-born Queen Mary, dies at 84
The royal house in Copenhagen says the father of Denmark’s Australian-born Queen Mary, John Donaldson, has died in Tasmania | 1010 WINS
John Donaldson, the father of Denmark's Australian-born Queen Mary, dies at 84
The royal house in Copenhagen says the father of Denmark’s Australian-born Queen Mary, John Donaldson, has died in Tasmania | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM
Trump wants to paint a White House office building with ‘magic paint.’ Experts advise against it
President Donald Trump privately advocated for painting an ornate federal office building next to the White House with a “magic paint with silicate,” CNN has learned. But ahead of a key vote on exterior changes to the sprawling Gilded Age structure, a panel of experts is warning the so-called magic paint could be incompatible with the Eisenhower Executive Office Building’s granite exterior.
Federal judges say White House ballroom construction can continue, for now
President Donald Trump has claimed that a building pause poses a risk to national security.
Appeals court says Trump White House ballroom construction can proceed for now
A federal appeals court said Saturday that President Donald Trump can move ahead for another week with construction of a massive new White House ballroom while judges consider the project.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Social media erupts after Harris introduces 'mob boss' accent to attack Trump: 'Total cringe'
Kamala Harris impersonated Donald Trump as a mob boss while criticizing his foreign policy at a National Action Network event, sparking online backlash.
For aging US Supreme Court justices, the politics of retirement looms large
When Donald Trump was asked about the prospect of conservative Justices Samuel Alito or Clarence Thomas retiring, the Republican president voiced his support for the U.S. Supreme Court's two oldest members to remain on the bench.
Trump likes to back winners in foreign elections. The upcoming vote in Hungary will test his clout
Donald Trump has made a public flex of his political influence abroad on a scale that few, if any, U.S. presidents have, trying to marshal power he’s used domestically to sway races around the world
Trump likes to back winners in foreign elections. The upcoming vote in Hungary will test his clout
Donald Trump has made a public flex of his political influence abroad on a scale that few, if any, U.S. presidents have, trying to marshal power he’s used domestically to sway races around the world.
Trump Likes to Back Winners in Foreign Elections. the Upcoming Vote in Hungary Will Test His Clout
WASHINGTON (AP) — In Hungary, President Donald Trump and his top officials used social media and an election-eve trip to Budapest to promote the country’s far-right prime minister in his reelection campaign. In Argentina, the U.S. administration worked to prop up the country’s financial markets to ...
Political analysts break down Trump's visit to Charlottesville
CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. (CBS19 NEWS) — President Donald Trump made a brief and tightly controlled visit to Charlottesville on Friday, attending a private fundraiser at Trump Winery as he works to
Melania Trump’s Epstein statement stunned White House aides but was in keeping with a first lady who does her own thing
With war raging and midterms on the horizon, the White House seemed to have finally shaken the Jeffrey Epstein saga that plagued the first year of Donald Trump’s second term. But for first lady Melania Trump, the Epstein story was still all consuming.
Trump administration unveils renderings of its proposed gold-accented arch
Designs for a towering, gold-accented triumphal arch near Arlington National Cemetery were revealed by the White House on Friday – providing more insight into the latest iteration of President Donald Trump’s desire to mold the physical footprint of Washington, DC, into his own vision.
Grim new economic numbers highlight how Trump is losing leverage against Iran
The week began with President Donald Trump saber-rattling like we’ve never seen before. He threatened apparent war crimes and to end a “whole civilization” if Iran didn’t meet his demands.
VA to roll out long-delayed electronic health records system in Michigan
Four Veterans Affairs sites in Michigan go live on Saturday. The rollout comes almost 10 years after President Donald Trump announced transition in 2017.
Trump's 2027 Budget Deepens Cuts To Global And Domestic Health
US President Donald Trump wants to eliminate $4.3 billion from the US government’s global health budget, including all funding for the Pan-American Health
Trump administration admits a glaring error in its New York health fraud accusations
NEW YORK (AP) — President Donald Trump's administration this week acknowledged it made a significant error in figures it used to help justify a fraud probe into
How Trump’s ‘wall of noise’ is changing Australian politics – Back to Back Barries podcast
Tony Barry and Barrie Cassidy discuss the fragile ceasefire in Iran and the pressure building on Australian politicians to respond to Donald Trump’s escalating rhetoric.
Trump administration admits a glaring error in its accusations about New York health care fraud
President Donald Trump's administration has admitted to a major error in data used to justify a federal fraud probe into New York’s Medicaid program.
Trump administration admits error in accusations about N.Y. health care fraud
President Donald Trump’s administration this week acknowledged it made a significant error in figures it used to help justify a fraud probe into New York’s Medicaid program.
Trump administration admits a glaring error in its accusations about New York health care fraud
NEW YORK (AP) — President Donald Trump's administration this week acknowledged it made a significant error in figures it used to help justify a fraud probe into New York’s Medicaid program, a glaring mistake that undercuts a federal campaign to tackle waste, mostly in Democratic-led states.
Trump administration admits error in New York health care fraud probe
President Donald Trump's administration has admitted to a major error in data used to justify a federal fraud probe into New York’s Medicaid program.
Trump is bullying NATO again. But Americans like the alliance
For the second time in the still-quite-young 2026 calendar year, President Donald Trump is threatening to blow up the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which Americans decidedly like, over a foreign policy adventure they decidedly do not.
By the numbers: US thrashed military targets in Iran, but some capabilities remain
Since the ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. was announced, leaders in President Donald Trump's administration have been quick to say the Iranian military and its capacity have sustained significant damage during the weeks of fighting | WBEN
The week that supercharged MAGA media feuds over the Iran war
The right-wing media ecosystem that has long served as a useful bullhorn for President Donald Trump unraveled into disarray this week, as deepening fears over his management of the war — and fragile ceasefire — with Iran spilled into public infighting among some of his most prominent allies.
H.R. 1 underscores unfairness in Colorado tax code
By Caroline Nutter On July 4, 2025, Colorado’s budget was overturned with the stroke of a pen. When President Donald Trump signed into law H.R. 1, or the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, he didn’t only cut federal funding by $3.4 trillion, he also cut Colorado’s budget by more than $1 billion. H.R. 1 expanded […]
Trump’s tenuous Iran exit plan isn't healing Republican rifts exposed by the war
President Donald Trump's efforts to exit the war in Iran are causing tension within the Republican Party | 830 WCCO
Trump’s tenuous Iran exit plan isn't healing Republican rifts exposed by the war
President Donald Trump's efforts to exit the war in Iran are causing tension within the Republican Party | KMBZ
Chinese business ‘hired lobbying firm with ties to Donald Trump Jnr’
Lobbying firm Checkmate helped China’s Grand Pharmaceutical Group beat a US national security challenge, public filings show.
Cuban president urges US dialogue without conditions of political change
Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel told NBC News that the country has asked U.S. President Donald Trump's administration to engage in dialogue without demanding changes from Cuba's political system or imposing other conditions, the network said on Thursday.
Chinese business hired lobbyist with ties to Don Jr, then scored a win
A lobbying firm led by one of Donald Trump Jr.'s hunting buddies helped a Chinese company make its case to a U.S. national security watchdog.
Appeals court decides against Anthropic in latest round of its AI battle with the Trump administration
The ruling followed another judge's order that forced President Donald Trump's administration to remove a label tainting the company as a national security risk.
As Trump throws lifeline to coal plants, critics warn of higher costs and health risks
The United States is undergoing a dramatic shift in energy policy as President Donald Trump wields government's sweeping powers to benefit coal and suppress cleaner alternatives. It could lead to more expensive electricity and dirtier air.
North of North Creators to Receive WIE Canada Honors
The ‘North of North’ indigenous comedy creators and showrunners will receive the Breakthrough Award on May 28 in Toronto.