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Let's play the game and not the occasion, urges Pep
Pep Guardiola has urged City to play the game and not the occasion when the Blues lock horns with Premier League leaders Arsenal at the Etihad on Sunday. Men's Team Bernardo Silva to leave Manchester ...
Unlock New Rewards in the Rivals and Rockets
Complete cross-game Quests and Challenges in Rocket League and Fortnite to unlock rewards in both games.
Cosm Breaks Ground on Immersive Entertainment Venue in Downtown Cleveland
CLEVELAND — Cosm, along with Bedrock and Rock Entertainment Group, have broken ground on a new entertainment venue located at the intersection of East 4th Street, Prospect Avenue and Huron Road in downtown Cleveland. Dubbed Cosm Cleveland, the venue will sit directly across from Rocket Arena (formerly Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse), home of the NBA’s Cleveland Cavaliers and AHL’s Cleveland Monsters. The two professional sports franchises are owned by Dan Gilbert, founder of Rocket Mortgage, Bedrock and Rock Entertainment Group. Spanning approximately 64,000 square feet and rising three stories, Cosm Cleveland will comprise two programmatic elements: The Dome and The Hall. Through Cosm’s proprietary technology called Shared Reality, the venue will merge a stadium-like atmosphere with state-of-the-art visuals in a communal setting. Rossetti Architects designed Cosm Cleveland, and Bedrock is leading the development. The venue, which will anchor Bedrock’s Rock Block mixed-use development, is slated to open in 2027. “This is a major milestone for our downtown Gateway District, and the arrival of Cosm is a testament to our community’s spirit and resilience,” says Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb. “This incredible venue will enhance our city’s reputation as a hub for sports and entertainment, drawing visitors from near and far to experience a…
2026 NFL Draft: Final big board of top 75 prospects
We have finalized our big board and have our top 75 prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft locked in with Caleb Downs on top.
Minnesota up against the clock on Medicaid changes
Democrats and Republicans in the Minnesota Legislature say they need to either pass legislation or update existing rules soon to ensure that state programs comply with new requirements from the federal government.
Franklin County judge temporarily blocks Ohio’s intoxicating hemp ban for two businesses
Sunweb ends sale of excursions involving wildlife entertainment
Sunweb Group will stop selling excursions with wild animals used for entertainment, following new animal welfare guidelines.
Strait of Hormuz blockade ‘working to provide leverage,’ political strategist says
An ‘All-Star’ panel joins ‘Special Report’ to discuss the state of US-Iran negotiations and the impact of the conflict on gas prices and affordability.
New Online Tool to Help People Find Naloxone Launched by the Wyoming Department of Health - Wyoming Department of Health
The Wyoming Department of Health (WDH) is excited to announce the Community Naloxone Resource Map. This new online tool makes it easier for people to find naloxone at no cost in their local communities. Naloxone, often known by the brand name Narcan®, is a life-saving drug that reverses the effects of an opioid overdose. Given […]
Judge allows 'national security' work to proceed at White House ballroom construction site
President Donald Trump railed against a federal judge's decision on Thursday that continues to block above-ground construction of a $400 million White House ballroom, allowing only below-ground work on a bunker and other “national security facilities” at the site.
House Again Thwarts Bid to Halt Iran War Unless Congress Approves It
Republicans narrowly blocked a Democratic war powers resolution that would have prevented President Trump from continuing to wage war in Iran until he won authorization from Congress to do so.
Vermont Natives Provide Entertainment Through Community, Connection, and Headlocks
A Vermont organization has delivered heated rivalries, daring smackdowns, and unique athleticism for decades — and now, it’s back in Barre. Green Mountain Wrestling (GMW) was founded 30 years ago, when Vermont lacked a professional wrestling scene and was rarely the target for major industry events. Launched by Gary Langevin, the group operated out of Newport from 1996 through 2003. During the organization’s early years, Adam Lash began helping with events. A wrestling fan and teenager eager to join the industry, GMW became a career springboard. “As I got older, I became more involved in the broader professional wrestling industry beyond
Democrats vow to block next Trump Supreme Court pick amid Alito speculation
Justice Samuel Alito hasn’t tipped his hat on retiring just yet, but Senate Democrats are already entrenched in opposing the confirmation of a successor that would deliver President Donald Trump his fourth lifetime appointment to the high court. Democrats need to first retake the majority and for a vacancy to arise. But with the party’s […]
Avoid these common small business tax mistakes
Block Advisors Strategy and Small Business Program Manager, Latasha Randle, chats with Host, Elizabeth Gore, about how self-employed entrepreneurs can simplify taxes, retirement, and healthcare planning. Randle shares practical advice on staying organized year-round, maximizing deductions, and building long-term financial security through proactive planning.
Politics and the Bayeux Tapestry: the inside story of the blockbuster loan to the British Museum
History’s most famous embroidery has sparked endless fascination and controversy over the circa 950 years since its creation. In the run-up to its arrival in London, David Musgrove spoke to the UK Government’s Envoy for the Bayeux Tapestry Loan, Lord Peter Ricketts
The gamble in Trump’s Iran blockade that could decide the war
President Donald Trump’s switch from kinetic to economic warfare with his blockade of Iran’s ships and ports is an attempt to end the conflict without a new US-Israeli onslaught.
Infrastructure, politics influence election for north Fort Worth council seat
Chris Jamieson and Alicia Ortiz are seeking the north Fort Worth seat left open by Alan Blaylock as he runs for state office.
Fighter pilot Rumen Radev looks to break Bulgaria’s political deadlock
Radev is vowing to combat the country’s oligarchs and mafia, but his Kremlin-aligned positions on Ukraine have sparked concern.
California Science Center completes construction on new Air and Space Center - Beverly Press & Park Labrea News
As NASA’s Artemis II astronauts circled the moon and moviegoers flocked to theaters to see Ryan Gosling travel...
Blackhawks extend general manager Kyle Davidson's contract
The Chicago Blackhawks extended general manager Kyle Davidson's contract Wednesday without providing the length of the deal. “We are committing to Kyle to continue the plan he has put in place,” chairman and owner Danny Wirtz said before the team's season-ending game against San Jose. The Blackhawks are locked into 31st place in the 32-team NHL and haven’t made the Stanley Cup playoffs since the expanded COVID playoffs of 2020.
Transgender sports participation measure pushed to November ballot
The proposal would prevent transgender students assigned male at birth to play in girls sports or use girls private spaces like bathrooms and locker rooms.
Shooting reported at Laredo business, injuries confirmed
A shooting was reported at a local business in the 9800 block of McPherson Rd., according to the Laredo Police Department.
Jury finds that Ticketmaster and Live Nation had an anticompetitive monopoly
The civil case accused Live Nation of using its reach to smother competition — by blocking venues from using multiple ticket sellers, for example
Senate again votes against ending Iran war. But tougher votes are coming
The Senate on Wednesday again blocked a resolution that would halt American hostilities against Iran. Democrats aren't done forcing similar votes.
Supporting students before, during, and after mental health crisis
Nationally, suicide remains one of the leading causes of death among college-aged young adults.
After sale of its shoe business, Allbirds pivots to AI
Allbirds is ditching wool sneakers for AI servers, rebranding as NewBird AI after locking in a $50M convertible financing facility.
After sale of its shoe business, Allbirds pivots to AI
Allbirds is ditching wool sneakers for AI servers, rebranding as NewBird AI after locking in a $50M convertible financing facility.
Alabama Predicted by CBS Sports to Exceed Expectations
CBS Sports predicts a surprising 10- or 11-win season for Alabama. Can new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb unlock a championship run?
Lorenzo Lamas Confirms Heather Locklear Relationship
The 'Melrose Place' and 'Falcon Crest' actors, who rose to fame in the '80s and '90s, are officially dating.
Multiple PlayStation Plus Extra and Premium titles for April have leaked
It looks like those on PlayStation Plus' Extra and Premium tiers can expect more blockbuster games to join the service next week.
Back button hijacking to be penalised in Google crackdown
The tech giant said it will punish sites that block back button navigation from June.
Google just unlocked 'Agent Mode' for Gemini 3.1 — here are 7 things it can now do for you
From "inbox zero" to full trip planning, here is how to unlock Google’s powerful new agentic workflows
Mountain View considers downtown entertainment zone
(KRON) — The City of Mountain View is considering new legislation to establish an entertainment zone in its downtown area. The proposed ordinance, introduced Tuesday evening at a City Council meeting, would allow for public, outdoor alcohol consumption during special events on five blocks of Castro Street. The initiative aims to create a festive environment […]
LaMelo Ball's layup, Miles Bridges' block at buzzer give Hornets win over Heat
LaMelo Ball made a layup with 4.7 seconds left in overtime, Miles Bridges blocked Davion Mitchell's attempt at a winning layup at the buzzer, and the Charlotte Hornets beat Miami 127-126
95% of people carry this virus and scientists may have just found how to stop it
Scientists have taken a major step toward stopping Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), an extremely common infection linked to cancer and chronic disease. By using mice engineered with human antibody genes, researchers created powerful human-like antibodies that block the virus from attaching to and entering immune cells. One of these antibodies completely prevented infection in lab models with human immune systems, marking a breakthrough after years of difficulty tackling EBV’s ability to invade nearly all B cells.
This simple change stops robot swarms from getting stuck
In crowded environments, more robots don’t always mean faster results—in fact, too many can bring everything to a standstill. Harvard researchers discovered a surprising fix: adding a bit of randomness to how robots move can actually prevent gridlock and boost efficiency. By allowing robots to “wiggle” slightly instead of marching in straight lines, they can slip past each other and keep tasks flowing smoothly.
Graphene just defied a fundamental law of physics
In a major breakthrough, scientists have observed electrons in graphene flowing like a nearly frictionless liquid, defying a core law of physics. This exotic quantum state not only reveals new fundamental behavior but could also unlock powerful future technologies.
Using atomic nuclei could allow scientists to read time more precisely than ever
Most clocks, from wristwatches to the systems that run GPS and the internet, work by tracking regular, repeating motions.
Louisiana political donors would have addresses redacted from public reports under bill
The Louisiana Legislature might block the public from seeing the addresses of political donors who give money to election campaigns starting Aug. 1.
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette to stay in business under new nonprofit owner
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette will live on past its slated May 3 closure date, thanks to a new deal with a nonprofit journalism organization.
I Don’t Blame NATO for Skipping Out on Our Greedy President’s Strait of Hormuz Blockade
Trump, whose most profound desire is to make money, is essentially running an extortion scheme.
Q&A with chemist Max Delferro: Unlocking breakthroughs in catalytic science
In this Q&A, chemist Max Delferro explains how his team is combining catalysis, artificial intelligence and robotics to speed chemical discovery — cutting catalyst development from decades to years while advancing more efficient industrial processes.
GOP senator sues to block takeover of family's historic resort amid $289M debt dispute
A legal battle over the Greenbrier resort intensifies as the Justice family accuses creditors of deceptive tactics, while an investor alleges fraud and financial mismanagement.
Scientists reverse brain aging, with a nasal spray
New therapy is turning back the clock in aging brains, healing inflammation, restoring memory and reshaping the future of brain age-related therapies.
Inside Gaming: Strip room rates gradually increasing, analyst says
Plus, a temporary restraining order blocking the enforcement of Arizona gaming laws against prediction markets has been ordered in U.S. District Court in Arizona.
What trainers actually think about the 12-3-30 workout
Have we finally unlocked exercise’s biggest secret? Or is this yet another lie perpetrated Big Treadmill?
Q&A with chemist Max Delferro: Unlocking breakthroughs in catalytic science
In this Q&A, chemist Max Delferro explains how his team is combining catalysis, artificial intelligence and robotics to speed chemical discovery — cutting catalyst development from decades to years while advancing more efficient industrial processes.
TPG to Acquire Learfield, the Leading College Sports Media Sales and Technology Provider
Investment to support continued transformation of college sports and live entertainment through digital and physical sports IP, brand sponsorship, and fan engagement solutions DALLAS, SAN FRANCISCO & FORT WORTH, TEXAS – April 14, 2026 – TPG, a leading global alternative asset management firm, today announced the signing of a definitive agreement to acquire Learfield, the […]
Why Phillies should think long term with Justin Crawford, Andrew Painter
The Phillies have two young building blocks in Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter. With labor uncertainty ahead, early extensions would make sense.
30 Under 30 Europe Science & Healthcare 2026: The Founders Using AI To Empower Patients And Unlock Scientific Mysteries
These young entrepreneurs, researchers and doctors are improving healthcare, empowering patients and building the hardware of the future.
US crude futures fall over $1 as traders weigh supply risks
U.S. crude futures fell more than $1 in early Asian trade on Tuesday as traders balanced heightened supply risks linked to a U.S. blockade of Iranian shipping in the Strait of Hormuz with reports that Washington and Tehran were still open to talks after a tense meeting in Islamabad.
Dozens arrested as protesters urge Schumer, Gillibrand block bomb sale to Israel
Among the 90 people taken into custody were whistleblower Chelsea Manning, actor Hari Nef and New York City Council Member Alexa Avilés, according to a JVP spokesperson.
Vote for Blue FCU's Fort Collins-area Girls Athlete of Week (April 13)
Vote for Blue FCU Girls Athlete of the Week, with nominees from Rocky tennis, PSD lacrosse, Timnath track & field and Fossil Ridge soccer/track.
Why Did ‘Rock the Block’s Chelsea Meissner Leave ’Southern Charm’?
The 'Survivor' and Bravo alum is making her reality TV return on 'Rock the Block.'
State Policy Trends in Cybersecurity and Public Health Preparedness
Learn how states are including cybersecurity in their emergency preparedness work in this Health Policy Update.
Public hearing set for Tuesday on trans ballot initiative
The measure requires schools to designate all sports teams as male, female or co-ed. It also requires public schools to maintain separate restrooms, locker rooms and shower rooms for girls and boys.
The Next Test in the Iran War: Which Side Can Endure More Economic Pain?
President Trump is trying to choke off the country’s lifeline with a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. But the Iranians are betting that his tolerance for political pain is limited.
Swalwell exits California governor's race after assault allegations
Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell’s abrupt exit from the race for California governor left his rivals scrambling to lock down his former supporters in a crowded contest with no clear leader, injecting more turmoil into the campaign to lead the nation’s most populous state.
Stanford HAI 2026 AI Index: AI posts gains in science and medicine while often struggling to read a clock
Stanford HAI’s 2026 AI Index paints a split-screen picture for R&D. In the report’s science chapter, “frontier models outperform human chemists on average on ChemBench,” yet “score below 20% on replication in astrophysics and 33% on Earth observation questions.” In medicine, the report reaches a similarly mixed conclusion, saying AI is transforming clinical care, but…
What the latest developments in Iran war mean for U.S. politics
The U.S. Military’s blockade of Iran’s ports and coastal areas came into effect this morning.
Oil prices jump on US plans to blockade Iranian ports in Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices climbed Monday, after the US military said it would implement a shipping blockade in the Strait of Hormuz — a move that could test the current ceasefire while further tightening global oil supply.
Washington Announces Naval Blockade of Iranian Ports After Talks Collapse
The war in Iran has already strained supply chains and energy markets, and the US blockade threatens to destabilize global trade flows.
Starmer confirms UK will not support US blockade of strait of Hormuz
PM says opening waterway is ‘vital’ as he rules out any UK involvement in US moves to blockade strait
Oil price tops $100 a barrel again after Trump announces strait of Hormuz blockade
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
Trump’s strait blockade risks another serious blow to the global economy
The failure of US-Iran peace talks leaves President Donald Trump with a set of unattractive options that are unlikely to hand him a decisive or swift victory.
Business Briefs April 13, 2025: Business news in the Berkshires and beyond
In light of current events, Greylock’s leadership recognized the importance of awarding funds to organizations dedicated to providing human services.
Scientists were wrong about lifespan. Your genes matter way more than we thought
For years, scientists believed our lifespan was mostly shaped by environment and chance, with genetics playing only a minor role. But a new study from the Weizmann Institute flips that idea on its head, revealing that genes may actually account for about half of the differences in how long people live. By analyzing massive twin datasets—including twins raised apart—and using innovative simulations to filter out deaths from accidents and other external causes, researchers uncovered a hidden genetic influence that had been masked for decades.
Scottish Association for Marine Science: Unlocking red seaweed for food flavor, color & hybrid proteins
‘Chilling effect’ of Trump science cuts – even if reversed again
Congress likely to once more block plans to cut billions from agency budgets, but experts fear they will have long-term impact anyway
Oil prices surge after failed US-Iran peace talks, Trump's blockade
Vice President JD Vance traveled to Pakistan on Saturday to engage in peace talks with Iran. However, the two countries failed to reach a deal.
Oil prices rise after Trump threatens to block passage through Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices topped $100 a barrel again on Sunday after President Donald Trump said the US would blockade “any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” threatening to further disrupt oil flows.
Pittsburgh plans entertainment, block party for pedestrians walking through the NFL Draft
Jeremy Waldrup, head of the Pittsburgh Downtown Partnership, has some advice for the several hundred thousand people who visit the city next week for the...
FSU gets final summer official visit for cornerback target
The Florida State Seminoles will get the final official visit of the summer for 2027 three-star cornerback Trenton Blaylock.
California Republicans deadlocked on endorsing governor candidate
Neither Fox News commentator Steve Hilton nor Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco received the required delegate support at the state convention, which ended Sunday.
TST Best Bets: April 12, 2026
The day has come for the NBA’s 82-game regular season to come to an end, as all 30 teams play in their last contest of the season on Sunday with the final chance to lock in their postseason seeding. With the majority of the seeding locked up at the top of both conferences, the Eastern Conference’s lower rung will provide most of the excitement on the final slate, as seeds 5-10 are all yet to be decided. But the most consequential unresolved race impacting who will hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy
News Analysis: Trump's Strait of Hormuz blockade risks clash with China
It is a high-stakes moment ahead of a closely watched summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing next month.
Samsung to fix Adaptive Clock glitch in One UI 8.5 update
Adaptive Clock has a glitch on One UI 8.5 devices, and Samsung is working on a fix. The problem has been acknowledged by a community moderator, who promised the addressal with the next Beta software update. It’s already a big day for Samsung users, thanks to One UI 8.5 rollouts. Whether it’s new Beta releases […]
Inside the $350 million missile silo that could become a data center
Tech firms are turning missile silos and abandoned mines into secure data centers as Americans flock to survival camps amid rising fears of world war.
Why Trump is threatening to blockade a strait that Iran is already blockading
President Donald Trump is threatening to close off the Strait of Hormuz — a crucial waterway that he has repeatedly told Iran must be reopened unconditionally.
GSK sees blockbuster potential in targeted cancer therapy after promising early data
British drugmaker GSK's experimental targeted cancer drug Mo-rez has blockbuster potential, its head of oncology research has told reporters, after early data showed the drug helped shrink tumors in patients with advanced, hard-to-treat cancers.
Trump announces blockade of Hormuz
President Trump has reacted to the failure of US-Iran peace talks by announcing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Deadlock on Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear stockpile led to impasse, officials say
Entering this weekend’s high-stakes talks in Pakistan, US officials identified a number of key areas where they would need to see progress in order to declare success.
FULL SHOW: Inside INdiana Business 4/12/26
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Police remove fuel protesters from Dublin center as disruption over soaring costs continues
Police have broken up a blockade in Dublin by protesters who have disrupted Ireland for a week over the soaring cost of fuel.
Nell Nolan: 8 O'Clocks, Christian Brothers Gala, Chapelle Emerald Gala
Rocking around the Clocks
The real space science behind 'Project Hail Mary'
The science fiction blockbuster wowed audiences with its depiction of space travel and more. Here's what NASA staff and other scientists say about the basis for the amazing events of the film.
Athletics finding reasons to celebrate while Mets looking for answers
The Athletics went viral with a new home run celebration Saturday as they locked up a winning road trip to New York.
SPFL prepare for Old Firm play-off
The Scottish Professional Football League is preparing for a potential Old Firm Premiership play-off should the title race end in a deadlock between Rangers and Celtic. Daily Record) Lawrence Shankland looks increasingly likely to stay at Heart of Midlothian until the end of the 30-year-old Scotland striker's current contract despite long-standing interest in his signature from Rangers. (Football Insider)
Musicians and music lovers flock to Little River’s Star Tavern
There’s a small blue and red building that sits back from a busy highway in Little River, that one regular customer describes as an “artistic mecca” for musicians. And it is flourishing under Ron Johnson's leadership.
Cavaliers conclude regular season vs. last-place Wizards
The playoff-bound Cleveland Cavaliers and last-place Washington Wizards are locked into their spots in the standings, leaving nothing tangible for either team to play for -- except pride -- in their regular season finale Sunday.
Pistons, Pacers close regular season in opposite positions
With the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference already locked up, the Detroit Pistons visiting the Indiana Pacers on Sunday in Indianapolis with an opportunity to complete a 60-win regular season for the first time in 20 years.
Iraq parliament elects Kurdish politician Nizar Amedi as president
New president pledges 'Iraq First' after securing 227 votes, ending five months of political deadlock.
Rhode Island Marijuana Business License Lottery Blocked By Federal Judge Amid Challenge To Residency Rules
“Knowing the Act was facing legal challenges…CCC continued forward with its plan to implement the Act and its licensing scheme. The resulting fall-out will be, to be blunt, self-inflicted.” By Christopher Shea, Rhode Island Currant Nearly 100 applicants vying for 20 new cannabis retail licenses that were supposed to be awarded via lottery as soon […]
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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