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Scientists think alien life might be hiding in patterns

A new study proposes detecting life in space by spotting patterns across many planets instead of focusing on one at a time. If life spreads and changes planetary environments, it could leave behind statistical clues linking planets together. These patterns may reveal life even when traditional biosignatures are unclear or misleading. The method could help scientists prioritize which planets are most likely to host life.

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Apr 15 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
The Unlikely Team That Ended One of the Longest Playoff Droughts in Sports

Despite starting the season at the bottom of the NHL standings, the reinvigorated Buffalo Sabres are heading to the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since 2011.

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Apr 15 • 7:00 AM EDT • Sports • wsj.com
UBS chairman says key business decisions may soon become unavoidable

Key business decisions may soon become unavoidable, UBS Chairman Colm Kelleher said on Wednesday, ​turning up the volume on a tense debate about ‌proposed Swiss capital requirements that has triggered growing pressure from markets and shareholders.

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Apr 15 • 5:37 AM EDT • Business • reuters.com
Brian Kelly on LSU firing: 'I didn’t win enough games, period.' What's next?

Six months after LSU firing, Brian Kelly tells USA TODAY Sports the problem was simple: ‘I didn’t win enough.’ But he wants to coach again.

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Apr 15 • 5:13 AM EDT • Sports • usatoday.com
Arsenal XI vs Sporting CP – Predicted lineup and team news

Arsenal host Sporting CP tonight, aiming to clinch a place in the Champions League semi-finals.The Gunners hold a slender 1–0 aggregate lead after a resilient display in Lisbon last week. Mikel Arte...

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Apr 15 • 3:25 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Schmaltz scores 2 goals as Mammoth defeat Jets 5-3

Nick Schmaltz scored twice as the Utah Mammoth beat the Winnipeg Jets 5-3 on Tuesday night and secured the first wild-card spot in the Western Conference. Schmaltz scored his first goal for the Mammoth 4:54 into the second period on the power-play, assisted by Mikhail Sergachev and Dylan Guenther. He added a power-play goal 7:16 into the third, assisted by Logan Cooley and Clayton Keller.

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Apr 15 • 12:17 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Scientists just solved a 160-million-year fossil mystery “I’ve never seen anything like it”

A rare fossil discovery is shedding light on the “missing years” of early sponge evolution. Scientists found a 550-million-year-old sponge that likely lacked hard skeletal parts, explaining why earlier fossils are so scarce. This supports the idea that the earliest sponges were soft-bodied and rarely preserved. The finding changes how researchers hunt for the origins of animal life.

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Apr 14 • 8:00 PM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
Businesses fundraising for family after tragic loss

LAKE POINSETT, S.D. (KELO) — An eastern South Dakota community is grieving after a beloved son and brother died unexpectedly over the weekend. But, businesses around Lake Poinsett are steppin…

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Apr 14 • 7:03 PM EDT • Business • keloland.com
Justice Dept. Moves to Vacate Jan. 6 Convictions for Far-Right Extremists

Defending the convictions would likely have required administration officials to assert that far-right groups were acting on behalf of President Trump on Jan. 6, 2021.

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Apr 14 • 6:08 PM EDT • Politics • nytimes.com
Hades 2's second post-launch patch adds in more prophecy conclusions and flirtier friends

Plus, plenty of quality of life changes.

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Apr 14 • 2:00 PM EDT • Technology • rockpapershotgun.com
Will Democrats try to remove Trump from office?

Impeachment, 25th Amendment are likely to fall short

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Apr 14 • 12:46 PM EDT • Politics • theweek.com
Arteta expecting changes from Sporting for Arsenal 2nd leg

Mikel Arteta is expecting a tough match against Sporting CP on Wednesday, believing that they’ll approach the game in a different way after their first-leg defeat.Photo by Harry Murphy/Getty ImagesA...

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Apr 14 • 12:05 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
The RAM Crisis Just Royally Screwed Microsoft Surface PCs

We likely won't see a new Surface PC as cheap as the MacBook Neo anytime soon.

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Apr 14 • 11:10 AM EDT • Technology • gizmodo.com
Mikel Arteta wants to see ‘no fear’ and ‘pure fire’ from Arsenal’s players and fans

Arsenal could be without several key players for their Champions League second-leg tie against Sporting on Wednesday.

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Apr 14 • 10:22 AM EDT • Sports • nytimes.com
Arteta on team fitness, 'pure fire' and Sporting

Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta has been speaking to the media before Wednesday's Champions League quarter-final second leg against Sporting at Emirates (kick-off 20:00 BST). Arteta was vague on team news, adding that "a few of the boys" will be assessed Wednesday morning to see if they can play. Declan Rice, who did not train on Tuesday, is one of those but Arteta would not give details on the reason he is sidelined.

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Apr 14 • 9:41 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Ian McKellen and Michaela Coel on art, their friendship and 'The Christophers'

As screen presences and cultural figures, Ian McKellen and Michaela Coel could hardly be more different | WWJ Newsradio 950

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Apr 14 • 9:34 AM EDT • Entertainment • audacy.com
Ian McKellen and Michaela Coel on art, their friendship and 'The Christophers'

As screen presences and cultural figures, Ian McKellen and Michaela Coel could hardly be more different | WWL

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Apr 14 • 9:34 AM EDT • Entertainment • audacy.com
Arsenal injury news ahead of Sporting: who is available?

Mikel Arteta met with the media ahead of Arsenal’s Champions League quarter-final second leg against Sporting on Wednesday and delivered the following updates on his injured players.Photo by Carlos ...

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Apr 14 • 9:20 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Kelly Sapp, PMP, LEED AP

Ardmore Roderick welcomes Kelly A. Sapp, PMP, LEED AP, as Vice President of Energy & Utilities.

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Apr 14 • 9:16 AM EDT • Business • chicagobusiness.com
'Cherki has bought true freedom and creative magic'

Manchester City are finding their stride at the perfect time and it's the most daunting of warnings being issued simultaneously to those of an Arsenal persuasion. Mikel Arteta's side stumbled and Pep Guardiola's players pounced and at the heart of that deadly punch was Rayan Cherki, who grabbed the Chelsea game by the scruff of its neck to take all three points. Chelsea frustrated and on numerous occasions threatened to do their London rivals a favour in the first half on Sunday, but it was City who stood firm, albeit whilst not creating too much themselves.

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Apr 14 • 5:47 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Bengals free-agency reunion candidate gets visit with another team

This Bengals reunion in free agency is getting less likely to happen.

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Apr 14 • 5:30 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Swalwell's fall muddles 'unique' Calif. governor's race even more

Katie Porter and Tom Steyer are likely to absorb Eric Swalwell’s support.

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Apr 13 • 8:36 PM EDT • Politics • sfgate.com
Swalwell out, new poll could alter April 22 debate lineup

The field for the upcoming Inside California Politics gubernatorial debate is likely to shift following the sudden exit of Rep. Eric Swalwell, who dropped out of the race over the weekend amid alle…

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Apr 13 • 7:30 PM EDT • Politics • ktla.com
Kelly vetoes sports tourism program, allows religious freedom bill to move forward

Gov. Laura Kelly vetoed legislation to create a sports tourism grant program focused on expanding state investment in sporting events.

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Apr 13 • 5:55 PM EDT • Sports • kansasreflector.com
'Oslo patient' likely cured of HIV after getting stem cell transplant from his brother, who is genetically resistant to the virus

A man known as the "Oslo patient" joins a short list of people in long-term remission from HIV following bone marrow transplants.

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Apr 13 • 5:08 PM EDT • Science • livescience.com
Kansas governor signs sports authority bill to guide Kansas City Chiefs’ developments

The governor, state legislative leaders and owners of the NFL franchise announced in December the framework of a deal for developing a domed stadium surrounded by an entertainment district in Wyandotte County, in addition to the team’s headquarters, training facility and related developments in Johnson County.

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Apr 13 • 11:20 AM EDT • Sports • hppr.org
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Northwestern Medicine provides guidance for improving Black maternal health

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says more than 80% of deaths related to pregnancy are preventable, and Black women are three times more likely to die from pregnancy-related causes than white women.

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Apr 13 • 9:32 AM EDT • Health • cbsnews.com
High-Signal Publisher
Men and women with obesity face very different hidden health risks

New research reveals that obesity affects men and women in surprisingly different ways. Men are more likely to develop harmful abdominal fat and signs of liver stress, while women show higher inflammation and cholesterol levels. These differences could help explain why health risks vary between sexes. Scientists say this could lead to more tailored treatments for obesity.

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Apr 13 • 8:00 AM EDT • Health • sciencedaily.com
iPhone 18 Pro Deep Red Color Likely as Android Rivals Prep Same Shade

Apple's upcoming iPhone 18 Pro is very likely to come in a new deep red color, claims a Chinese leaker, because the color is already being prototyped by Android phone makers. In February, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman reported that Apple is testing a deep red finish for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max. Rumors of purple and brown finishes have also circulated, but Gurman believes those are just variants of the same red idea.

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Apr 13 • 6:22 AM EDT • Technology • macrumors.com
As Iran war drags on, midterm forecasts for Republicans get even worse

The GOP was already bracing for a tough election, but with the ceasefire in doubt, gas prices are likely to stay high, and voters’ economic outlook is dismal.

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Apr 13 • 5:00 AM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Arsenal's teetering title challenge

Arsenal's shock 2-1 defeat by Bournemouth at Emirates Stadium means Mikel Arteta's side have picked up just 70 points from 32 games this season. The last Premier League champion to have as few points with six games left to play was Leicester City on 69 points in 2015-16. Only three teams in the last 22 seasons have had as few points at this stage of the season and went on to win the title - Manchester United in 2010-11 (69 points), Manchester City in 2013-14 (70 points) and Leicester City in 2015-16 (69 points).

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Apr 13 • 3:43 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Chris Brazzell NFL Draft Profile

Doug watches the college film to assess Chris Brazzell's strengths and weaknesses as well as what it likely means for his NFL future.

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Apr 13 • 2:03 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Trump’s strait blockade risks another serious blow to the global economy

The failure of US-Iran peace talks leaves President Donald Trump with a set of unattractive options that are unlikely to hand him a decisive or swift victory.

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Apr 13 • 12:01 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
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AD Chris McIntosh is reportedly leaving Wisconsin for role in Big Ten office

According to two reports, Chris McIntosh, Barry Alvarez's successor as athletic director, is leaving Wisconsin for a job with the Big Ten Conference.

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Apr 12 • 8:49 PM EDT • Sports • jsonline.com
8.8-inch OLED, Snapdragon 8 Gen 5: High-end compact tablet gets official launch date

Compact tablet enthusiasts have likely been awaiting more details regarding the Oppo Pad Mini tablet. As revealed by the company, the 8.8-inch OLED tablet powered by the Snapdragon 8 Gen 5 SoC is set to see the light of day later this month.

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Apr 12 • 8:43 PM EDT • Technology • notebookcheck.net
‘Chilling effect’ of Trump science cuts – even if reversed again

Congress likely to once more block plans to cut billions from agency budgets, but experts fear they will have long-term impact anyway

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Apr 12 • 7:01 PM EDT • Science • timeshighereducation.com
Analysis: Rogers still has more to prove

Morgan Rogers is attracting a lot of attention and the growing expectation is he will leave Aston Villa in the summer. Villa will likely need to sell a star player, regardless of whether they qualify for the Champions League, and Rogers is their best asset - especially with Boubacar Kamara out injured. An impressive World Cup would also strengthen Villa's hand but the England forward needs to show more of a clinical nature throughout the pitch.

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Apr 12 • 3:40 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Flory Bidunga reportedly commits to Louisville basketball, Pat Kelsey

Flory Bidunga, who many considered to be the top player in the NCAA transfer portal, has reportedly picked Louisville basketball and coach Pat Kelsey.

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Apr 12 • 2:00 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Nancy Guthrie Update: Expert Names ‘Most Likely’ Source of Suspect’s DNA

DNA is ‘hardy,’ says CeCe Moore, and one source might be investigators’ best hope at learning what happened to Nancy Guthrie.

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Apr 12 • 12:42 PM EDT • Entertainment • cbs19news.com
Nancy Guthrie Update: Expert Names ‘Most Likely’ Source of Suspect’s DNA

DNA is ‘hardy,’ says CeCe Moore, and one source might be investigators’ best hope at learning what happened to Nancy Guthrie.

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Apr 12 • 12:42 PM EDT • Entertainment • yakimaherald.com
Kelsey Plum reportedly returning to Sparks on team-friendly, 1-year deal
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Apr 12 • 10:47 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
New ‘Real Housewives’ star makes surprising confession about R. Kelly. ‘I loved him.’
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Apr 12 • 6:00 AM EDT • Entertainment • nj.com
Michigan group spotlights Black Maternal Health Week and the risks Black women face giving birth

Black women are 3 to 4 times more likely than their white counterparts to die of childbirth-related complications. The disparity is unchanged even when factoring in education and income.

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Apr 12 • 5:00 AM EDT • Health • michiganpublic.org
SPFL prepare for Old Firm play-off

The Scottish Professional Football League is preparing for a potential Old Firm Premiership play-off should the title race end in a deadlock between Rangers and Celtic. Daily Record) Lawrence Shankland looks increasingly likely to stay at Heart of Midlothian until the end of the 30-year-old Scotland striker's current contract despite long-standing interest in his signature from Rangers. (Football Insider)

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Apr 12 • 3:46 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Chris Bell NFL Draft Profile

Doug watches the college film to assess Chris Bell's strengths and weaknesses as well as what it likely means for his NFL future.

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Apr 12 • 3:03 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Young Republicans more skeptical of Iran war, dividing Trump base

Even within Trump’s GOP base, cracks are showing when it comes to the Iran conflict. Younger Republicans are much less likely to support the war.

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Apr 12 • 3:00 AM EDT • Politics • usatoday.com
Sooo ... About Last Night

Last night (Sat., April 11, 2026), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) ventured forth to Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida for UFC 327. Was this the deepest numbered event since UFC 300? Maybe Jon Anik was onto something! There were great fights from top to bottom, like Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque on the early “Prelims” card. […]

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Apr 12 • 3:00 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Hungarians head to polls in crucial election

Pollsters predict a record turnout as EU future is likely at stake.

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Apr 12 • 2:28 AM EDT • Politics • tvpworld.com
Android has a Secret Update Menu You Likely Didn’t Know About

Keeping your Android phone up-to-date should be a straight-forward task. You have updates for apps in the Google Play store and system updates that show up at some point in most... #Apps #Google

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Apr 11 • 1:56 PM EDT • Technology • droid-life.com
Chicago Cubs Rumors: Insider Addresses Likelihood of Lucas Giolito Signing
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Apr 11 • 1:12 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Fox News Entertainment Newsletter: Kelly Ripa’s secret signal, ‘Charlie’s Angels’ star on price of fame

The Fox News Entertainment Newsletter brings you the latest Hollywood headlines, celebrity interviews and stories from Los Angeles and beyond.

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Apr 11 • 1:07 PM EDT • Entertainment • wfmd.com
Fox News Entertainment Newsletter: Kelly Ripa's secret signal, 'Charlie's Angels' star on price of fame

The Fox News Entertainment Newsletter brings you the latest Hollywood headlines, celebrity interviews and stories from Los Angeles and beyond.

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Apr 11 • 1:04 PM EDT • Entertainment • foxnews.com
“AI polls” are fake polls

A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.

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Apr 11 • 11:38 AM EDT • Technology • natesilver.net
Arsenal: Open-play attack and mentality of Mikel Arteta's side warrants scrutiny after Bournemouth loss opens door for Man City
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Apr 11 • 11:11 AM EDT • Sports • skysports.com
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Two simple eating habits linked to lower weight, study finds

A major study suggests that when you eat could play a key role in staying lean. People who fast longer overnight and start their day with an early breakfast were more likely to have a lower BMI years later. Scientists think this is because eating earlier aligns better with the body’s internal clock. But skipping breakfast as part of intermittent fasting didn’t offer the same advantage—and may even be tied to unhealthy habits.

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Apr 11 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
Unusual airborne toxin detected in the U.S. for the first time

Scientists searching for air pollution clues stumbled onto something unexpected: toxic MCCPs drifting through the air for the first time in the Western Hemisphere. The likely source—fertilizer made from sewage sludge—points to a hidden route for contamination.

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Apr 11 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
Arsenal vs. Bournemouth: Mikel Arteta focuses on the here and now in Premier League tititle chase

Despite recent eliminations from both domestic cup competitions, Arsenal remain atop the Premier League with room to spare

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Apr 11 • 5:36 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Omar Cooper Jr. NFL Draft Profile

Doug watches the college film to assess Omar Cooper Jr.'s strengths and weaknesses as well as what it likely means for his NFL future.

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Apr 11 • 4:01 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
WNBA free agency news, live updates: Brittney Griner joining Sun; Kelsey Mitchell signing supermax with Fever; Nneka Ogwumike to Sparks
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Apr 10 • 10:45 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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How science is rewriting the rules of marine taxonomy, one seaweed at a time

Along the southern coastline, researchers dive deep to collect seaweed from kelp forests and rocky platforms, taking small samples and the location of each sample. Back in the lab, the specimens are preserved—some ...

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Apr 10 • 4:00 PM EDT • Science • phys.org
Gov. Laura Kelly signs bills altering defendant competency process, child health care program

Gov. Laura Kelly announces the signing of more than 50 bills approved by the 2026 Kansas Legislature.

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Apr 10 • 12:31 PM EDT • Health • kansasreflector.com
Team IMPACT CEO Krissie Kelleher understands the healing power of sports, teamwork and community

Krissie Kelleher used lessons from her lacrosse career to guide her daughter through surgeries and treatment for a spinal cord tumor. Witnessing how sports helped her daughter heal emotionally and physically inspired Kelleher to lead Team IMPACT, a national nonprofit connecting children facing serious illness with NCAA sports teams. Today, the organization partners with more than 400 schools and 1,100 teams to help kids build confidence, find community and experience hope through teamwork.

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Apr 10 • 7:00 AM EDT • Sports • ncaa.org
"This is not a game that is about to face some sort of imminent shutdown" - Marathon reportedly had a budget of $200m, and while player numbers are dipping, team morale remains good

Marathon reportedly had a development of over at least $200m, and likely over $250m.

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Apr 10 • 6:00 AM EDT • Technology • eurogamer.net
St. Petersburg Council advances $600M infrastructure bond proposal to Committee

Council took up the item without debate, reflecting desire to at least advance the conversation through the process despite likely debate.

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Apr 10 • 4:30 AM EDT • Politics • floridapolitics.com
'Losers.' Trump jabs MAGA media figures critical of his Iran threats

The president slammed Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens and Alex Jones, who raised concerns about the president's threats against Iran.

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Apr 10 • 12:19 AM EDT • Politics • detroitnews.com
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Trump small business admin Kelly Loeffler talks tariffs, taxes, gas prices

Small Business Administrator Kelly Loeffler was back in Georgia to tour a factory Thursday afternoon.

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Apr 9 • 11:42 PM EDT • Business • fox5atlanta.com
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Trump Attacks Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly Over Iran War Criticism

In a lengthy social media post, the president attacked Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly and others in starkly personal terms. He also criticized the editorial board of The Wall Street Journal.

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Apr 9 • 8:30 PM EDT • Politics • nytimes.com
Mac OS X Cheetah Successfully Ported to Nintendo Wii

Developer Bryan Keller was curious whether an old version of Apple's Mac operating system was capable of running on the Nintendo Wii after seeing Windows NT ported to the gaming device, so he decided to give it a try. He was able to get Mac OS X 10.0 Cheetah to operate on the Nintendo Wii, and he shared a blog post walking through the project.

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Apr 9 • 7:25 PM EDT • Technology • macrumors.com
Kelly Ann Walker builds $300K war chest in crowded HD 74 GOP Primary

4 other candidates are competing for the GOP nod.

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Apr 9 • 6:05 PM EDT • Politics • floridapolitics.com
Ancient Korean society practiced human sacrifice and high inbreeding, researchers find

A genomic analysis of dozens of ancient Korean skeletons revealed a special "sacrificial caste" of people.

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Apr 9 • 5:57 PM EDT • Science • livescience.com
The IX Sports Podcast: Aerin Frankel vs Ann-Reneé Desbiens

Host Maya Smith and guest Geremy discuss the record-breaking attendance at MSG and the battle for Goaltender of the Year.

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Apr 9 • 1:16 PM EDT • Sports • theixsports.com
A conversation with Sir Michael Marmot

How the realization that health outcomes are directly tied to social status led to a framework to reduce health inequalities.

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Apr 9 • 9:00 AM EDT • Health • publichealth.berkeley.edu
UC Berkeley students express transparency concerns in computer science comprehensive review process

UC Berkeley students attempting to add the computer science major have been navigating an uncertain comprehensive review process this year.

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Apr 9 • 8:30 AM EDT • Science • dailycal.org
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The Best Restaurants to Book in London Right Now

Must-visit places include an unlikely British power dining room and a great-value Japanese spot.

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Apr 9 • 1:15 AM EDT • Business • bloomberg.com
Smokers are more likely to develop dementia, research finds
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Apr 8 • 11:40 PM EDT • Health • cbsnews.com
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Masters 2026 odds, picks, predictions, props: Expert fading Tyrrell Hatton in best bets at Augusta National

SportsLine golf expert Brady Kannon just locked in his best bets for the 2026 Masters at Augusta National Golf Club with Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson both not playing

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Apr 8 • 11:00 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
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Cleveland Browns NFL Draft Profile: DE Keldric Faulk, Auburn

A young player with room to reach his potential is catnip to Browns GM Andrew Berry.

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Apr 8 • 6:30 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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'No one knows what they are': Researchers discover new type of cell that's seen only during pregnancy

A new map of the "maternal-fetal interface" reveals a new type of cell, as well as the types of cells most likely to be affected in conditions like preeclampsia.

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Apr 8 • 5:01 PM EDT • Science • livescience.com
Kevin Hart and Jason Kelce are among the celebrity caddies at Augusta National's Par 3 Contest

Comedian Kevin Hart caddied for Bryson DeChambeau in the Par 3 Contest at Augusta National | Talk 1370

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Apr 8 • 3:13 PM EDT • Entertainment • audacy.com
Kevin Hart and Jason Kelce are among the celebrity caddies at Augusta National's Par 3 Contest

Comedian Kevin Hart caddied for Bryson DeChambeau in the Par 3 Contest at Augusta National | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM

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Apr 8 • 3:13 PM EDT • Entertainment • audacy.com
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Social support, sleep and pain management linked to mental health in later life

Older Canadians who are socially connected, physically healthy, and spiritually engaged are significantly more likely to experience complete mental health, according to a new nationally representative ...

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Apr 8 • 2:00 PM EDT • Health • medicalxpress.com
iPhone Air 2 and iPhone 18e Reportedly Launching Early Next Year

Apple plans to release an updated iPhone Air and a lower-end iPhone 18e early next year, according to the latest word from Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. In a report this week, he said Apple plans to unveil the two devices in spring 2027, alongside a standard iPhone 18. If so, Apple will likely announce the trio of devices in March or April next year. It is unclear if there will be a live-streamed event.

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Apr 8 • 12:38 PM EDT • Technology • macrumors.com
Nancy Guthrie Kidnappers Likely Made This Fatal Mistake, Says Investigator

The 84-year-old mom of Savannah Guthrie has been missing for ten weeks.

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Apr 8 • 10:37 AM EDT • Entertainment • kten.com
Nancy Guthrie Kidnappers Likely Made This Fatal Mistake, Says Investigator

The 84-year-old mom of Savannah Guthrie has been missing for ten weeks.

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Apr 8 • 10:37 AM EDT • Entertainment • wyomingnewsnow.tv
Interview: Chattanooga mayor says police staffing up, business hub opens as city grows

Chattanooga is growing. And city leaders say they are trying to keep up.In a wide-ranging interview, Mayor Tim Kelly told us on ARC Chattanooga Wednesday mornin

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Apr 8 • 10:17 AM EDT • Business • newschannel9.com
Week 11 and First Adjournment of the 2026 Session

This edition of Health at the Capitol reviews health policy issues considered by the Kansas Legislature the week of March 23 and actions taken by Gov. Kelly ahead of the veto session.

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Apr 8 • 8:00 AM EDT • Health • khi.org
Arsenal were at risk of losing their way. In Lisbon they rediscovered their identity

After successive defeats Mikel Arteta demanded a response of conviction from his team. In defeating Sporting they provided it.

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Apr 8 • 12:14 AM EDT • Sports • nytimes.com
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Viewpoint: FP10 should remain open, excellent and secure

Europe is right to worry about research security. Foreign interference is real. So is the misuse of sensitive knowledge. Universities working in sensitive areas such as AI, quantum, semiconductors and advanced materials cannot afford to ignore the geopolitical environment around them.But Europe is in danger of drawing the wrong conclusion, one that would increase, not reduce, its strategic vulnerabilities.If the EU applies an “EU preference” logic to the next Framework Programme for research and innovation (FP10), it will weaken one of its greatest strategic assets: a research system built on openness, excellence and international collaboration. In the name of security, Europe could end up advancing science more slowly, innovating less effectively and making itself less attractive to global talent and partners in advanced science and technology.That would be a serious mistake.The EU preference included in Article 10 of the proposed European Competitiveness Fund may make sense in some industrial or deployment contexts, but is far harder to justify when applied to collaborative research in advanced science and technology, where excellence and global connectivity are crucial. Research is not procurement. It does not thrive when isolated. It advances through access to the best ideas, the best people, the best facilities and the best data, wherever they are found. This is why FP10 should not simply absorb industrial policy logic by default. Doing so would risk importing instruments that are ill-suited to research and that ultimately increase vulnerability rather than resilience.For universities of science and technology, the issue is especially acute. These institutions sit at the frontier of knowledge and technology creation in the very fields Europe sees as critical for its future competitiveness and resilience. They know better than most that security risks are real. But they also know that openness and security are not opposites. In practice, they have to be made to work together. Research security is not about closing doors. It is about building resilience through collective responsibility, trust, proportionate safeguards and better governance. That is a fundamentally different approach from default restriction.The risks of non-collaborationThe real danger in the current debate is that Europe talks too much about the risks of collaboration and not enough about the risks of non-collaboration. Those risks are strategic too. Cut researchers off from international networks and Europe loses access to knowledge, data, infrastructures and talent. Slow down global collaboration in critical technologies and Europe slows down its own progress on cutting-edge science. Make participation rules unpredictable and Europe weakens its attractiveness to researchers and investors alike.In other words, over-restricting collaboration will create strategic vulnerabilities, particularly in advanced science and technologies.This point is often underestimated in policy discussions that frame openness mainly as a value to be defended. Europe’s scientific strength, technological development and long-term competitiveness depend on remaining connected to the best research ecosystems in the world. For a continent that wants to accelerate deep tech, strengthen industrial capacity and reduce strategic dependencies, weakening the excellence base would be self-defeating. That does not mean ignoring risk. Quite the opposite. Universities are already strengthening due diligence, internal governance, awareness-raising, screening procedures and compliance support. Across Europe, institutions are working to manage risks linked to foreign interference, sanctions, export controls and the misuse of research. The right response is not complacency. It is better risk management. But that means targeted, evidence-based and proportionate measures, not blunt top-down restrictions with wide spillover effects. In the daily reality of universities, openness and restriction often coexist. The real challenge is how to apply safeguards without sliding into securitisation that damages academic freedom, open science and international cooperation. Restrict partners, not nationsMore restrictive treatment of collaborators from European Economic Area members Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway, or from Switzerland and the UK, is strategically very difficult to justify. These are deeply embedded partners in Europe’s research and innovation ecosystem. Beyond that, Europe should still resist default exclusion and instead rely on case-by-case assessment. The relevant question is not nationality in the abstract. It is the actual risk profile of a collaboration: the institution, the affiliations, the field, the knowledge involved, the intended use and the safeguards available. Screening should focus on institutions and affiliations rather than nationality alone. Related articlesParliament ‘misreads’ link between Horizon Europe and ECF, Commission official saysFrustration grows at governance gap in next Horizon EuropeIf EU preference logic is imported into research without careful calibration, the likely result is a chilling effect. Researchers may step back from legitimate and beneficial collaboration, even where risks are manageable. International partners may see Europe as less predictable. And Europe may end up undermining the very excellence base it needs to compete, scale up and lead in strategic technologies, thereby increasing its dependence on others.FP10 should do the opposite. It should remain open by default, with restrictions used only exceptionally, and then on the basis of clear evidence. It should integrate research security into open science and research integrity frameworks, not set them against each other. And it should recognise that academic freedom, scientific excellence and responsible international collaboration are not obstacles to Europe’s security, they are part of it. Europe needs stronger tools to protect itself. But it also needs the discipline to avoid measures that would weaken it and increase its strategic vulnerabilities in the process. In FP10, that means staying open, excellent and secure.Louise Drogoul is senior advisor for innovation and sustainability at the Cesaer university association.

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Apr 7 • 8:00 PM EDT • Science • sciencebusiness.net
Nickelodeon's All-Star Cast Returns To The Tennis Court Next Month

Move aside, Mario Tennis

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Apr 7 • 7:45 PM EDT • Technology • nintendolife.com
Kansas governor warns of Legislature’s ‘political games,’ ‘micro-managing’ in eight-bill veto spree

Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly shot down legislation riddled with “bureaucratic red tape,” “political games” and “micro-managing” as part of her Monday veto spree.

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Apr 7 • 5:07 PM EDT • Politics • kansasreflector.com
Fernando Mendoza, likely No. 1 overall pick, will reportedly not attend 2026 NFL Draft, opts to stay home
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Apr 7 • 1:28 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Nickelodeon Extreme Tennis Next announced for Nintendo Switch

Today, Gameloft unveiled Nickelodeon Extreme Tennis Next for Nintendo Switch. The game is launching on May 28, 2026. Nickelodeon Extreme Tennis is a fast-paced arcade tennis game featuring popular characters from SpongeBob, Avatar, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, and more. Expect character customization, a story mode, split-screen multiplayer, and more. Here’s an official overview: Become your favorite Nickelodeon character, like SpongeBob...

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Apr 7 • 12:22 PM EDT • Technology • nintendoeverything.com
UC Berkeley Public Health surges to No. 6 in U.S. News Rankings

UCBPH was also ranked as a top 10 school for Environmental Health, Community Health, Epidemiology, and Health Policy & Management.

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Apr 7 • 12:01 PM EDT • Health • publichealth.berkeley.edu
Users of social media and AI chatbots for health information are more likely to say they are convenient than accurate

About this research This Pew Research Center report looks at Americans’ views on health information and how they view their own health. Why did we do this? Pew Research Center…

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Apr 7 • 11:55 AM EDT • Health • pewresearch.org
UC Berkeley Haas climbs to No. 10 as the top public business school; evening & weekend MBA holds No. 1 ranking in U.S. News - Haas News

UC Berkeley Haas is the top-ranked public business school in U.S. News & World Report’s Best Business Schools 2026, with the Full-time MBA Program rising to No. 10, the MBA for Executives climbing to No. 4; and the Evening & Weekend MBA Program continuing its reign at No. 1. The Haas Undergraduate Program was previously ranked No. 3 in U.S. News' 2026 Best Undergraduate Business Programs, released last September.

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Apr 7 • 10:24 AM EDT • Business • newsroom.haas.berkeley.edu
Apple faces supply chain problem as MacBook Neo demand exceeds expectations

The new MacBook Neo has apparently been a smash hit, and Apple will likely talk up its success at its...

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Apr 7 • 10:06 AM EDT • Technology • 9to5mac.com
Fernando Mendoza partnership to bring financial education to NFL players

The 2026 NFL draft's likely No. 1 overall pick, Fernando Mendoza, is partnering with U.S. Bank to educate players about business and finance.

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Apr 7 • 6:04 AM EDT • Business • usatoday.com
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NASA’s Reply to Travis Kelce’s 16-Year-Old Tweet Has Everyone Talking

“There’s a blank space joke in here somewhere,” one Swiftie wrote. Celebrities, Entertainment

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Apr 6 • 5:57 PM EDT • Technology • boredpanda.com
3 Things to Know: Brands and Social Issues, Adult Recreational Sports League Participation Rebounds, and Sports Betting Partnerships

CivicScience has the world’s largest proprietary database of real-time declared intent, allowing brands to activate high-performing advertising that drives up to 80% better performance. See how our partners achieve superior marketing outcomes here. 1. Consumers hold mixed expectations on brand activism, with Democrats more likely to switch or boycott based on personal values, while Republicans [...]Read More... from 3 Things to Know: Brands and Social Issues, Adult Recreational Sports League Participation Rebounds, and Sports Betting Partnerships

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Apr 6 • 4:11 PM EDT • Sports • civicscience.com
Arsenal's Mikel Arteta preaches calm ahead of Sporting quarterfinal

Mikel Arteta has urged Arsenal's players not to panic as they aim to get their season back on track against Sporting Lisbon.

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Apr 6 • 3:29 PM EDT • Sports • espn.com