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Strait of Hormuz reopens & getting money out of politics
The Strait of Hormuz reopens as President Trump teases another round of talks. Retired Naval Intelligence Commander Dr. Paul Chabot weighs in on what could come next. Plus, Ken Whittaker with Michigan United discusses why he feels money should be taken out of politics.
Trump Announces US blockade on Iranian ports throughout the Strait of Hormuz
‘A good sign for all of us": GOP Congressman reacts to Trump’s declarations on the Strait of Hormuz
The Iran war isn’t hitting your grocery bill
The Strait of Hormuz is reopening. But the war’s impacts on the food economy could linger.
Stock market today: Indexes hit records after Iran says Hormuz is open
US stocks surged and oil prices plunged after Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz was "completely open," removing a key overhang for markets.
Strait of Hormuz blockade ‘working to provide leverage,’ political strategist says
An ‘All-Star’ panel joins ‘Special Report’ to discuss the state of US-Iran negotiations and the impact of the conflict on gas prices and affordability.
Trump questions NATO amid Iran and Strait of Hormuz tensions in Fox Business interview
I Don’t Blame NATO for Skipping Out on Our Greedy President’s Strait of Hormuz Blockade
Trump, whose most profound desire is to make money, is essentially running an extortion scheme.
Google, Microsoft, Meta All Tracking You Even When You Opt Out, According to an Independent Audit
“This is the Strait of Hormuz in the data economy. If you want to make a change, this is where you cut it off. Anything short of that is theatrical political posture.”
US crude futures fall over $1 as traders weigh supply risks
U.S. crude futures fell more than $1 in early Asian trade on Tuesday as traders balanced heightened supply risks linked to a U.S. blockade of Iranian shipping in the Strait of Hormuz with reports that Washington and Tehran were still open to talks after a tense meeting in Islamabad.
The Global Supply Of Helium Is Being Disrupted, Impacting A Range Of Critical Industries Including Medicine And Tech Development
Helium may be one of the most underestimated resources when it comes to our international dependence.
The Next Test in the Iran War: Which Side Can Endure More Economic Pain?
President Trump is trying to choke off the country’s lifeline with a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. But the Iranians are betting that his tolerance for political pain is limited.
Oil prices jump on US plans to blockade Iranian ports in Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices climbed Monday, after the US military said it would implement a shipping blockade in the Strait of Hormuz — a move that could test the current ceasefire while further tightening global oil supply.
Starmer confirms UK will not support US blockade of strait of Hormuz
PM says opening waterway is ‘vital’ as he rules out any UK involvement in US moves to blockade strait
Oil price tops $100 a barrel again after Trump announces strait of Hormuz blockade
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
Trump’s strait blockade risks another serious blow to the global economy
The failure of US-Iran peace talks leaves President Donald Trump with a set of unattractive options that are unlikely to hand him a decisive or swift victory.
IMF director says shock from US-Iran War is 'baked' into the economy
War has ravaged the Middle East for 43 days, but the damage could take years to repair amid tension at the Strait of Hormuz and damaged oil hubs.
Oil prices rise after Trump threatens to block passage through Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices topped $100 a barrel again on Sunday after President Donald Trump said the US would blockade “any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” threatening to further disrupt oil flows.
News Analysis: Trump's Strait of Hormuz blockade risks clash with China
It is a high-stakes moment ahead of a closely watched summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing next month.
Trump says gas prices could be same or 'a little bit higher' before midterms
One of the sticking points in the negotiations held in Islamabad has been Iran's stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz.
Nikki Haley: Iran thinks ‘they have leverage with the Strait. And they do.’
Why Trump is threatening to blockade a strait that Iran is already blockading
President Donald Trump is threatening to close off the Strait of Hormuz — a crucial waterway that he has repeatedly told Iran must be reopened unconditionally.
Trump announces blockade of Hormuz
President Trump has reacted to the failure of US-Iran peace talks by announcing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Deadlock on Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear stockpile led to impasse, officials say
Entering this weekend’s high-stakes talks in Pakistan, US officials identified a number of key areas where they would need to see progress in order to declare success.
Politics chat: Vance says talks with Iran haven't reached an agreement
Vice President JD Vance said the U.S. and Iran did not reach an agreement to end the war after meeting on Saturday. Control over the Strait of Hormuz remains a flash point in the war.
Why reopening the Strait of Hormuz won’t be enough to solve shipping woes and high oil prices
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is proving to be difficult. But even if the vital waterway fully opens and oil and other necessary cargo sail out, it won’t be enough to return things to normal.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
US negotiators leaving without a peace deal with Iran
A U.S. official said several U.S. Navy ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz; three supertankers passed through, shipping data showed.
Iran Unable to Find Mines in Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Says
The lost mines have prevented Iran from quickly complying with President Trump’s demand to allow more ships to pass through the waterway.
PC Industry In Dire Straits, 'Asking You to Own Nothing and Be Happy,’ Says Framework CEO
At least one laptop maker is saying what PC owners have all been thinking.
Starmer says he is ‘fed up’ with Trump and Putin’s impact on UK energy costs
PM appears to draw comparison between Russian and US leaders and calls for plan to restore shipping through strait of Hormuz
NATO chief signals allies may act on Hormuz, warns of ‘unhealthy codependence’ on US
Rutte signals a possible coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz after meeting Trump, but the White House says NATO was tested and already failed.
Iran cannot ‘hijack’ strait of Hormuz with shipping tolls, says Yvette Cooper
As Keir Starmer continues his Gulf visit, foreign secretary says laws of the sea prevent Tehran from charging for passage of ‘international transit route’
Strait of Hormuz traffic still stalled despite US-Iran ceasefire
Movements are dominated by smaller, risk-tolerant operators, while mainstream oil majors and large global shipping firms remain absent.
16th-century silver coin discovered near Strait of Magellan marks the spot of a doomed Spanish colony
The newfound coin dates to the 1584 founding of a doomed Spanish settlement in southern Chile.
Business - Oil prices fall after ceasefire deal as questions over Hormuz Strait linger
Keir Starmer welcomes Iran war ceasefire as he heads to Gulf to meet regional leaders
PM to meet partners in region to discuss effort to ‘support and sustain ceasefire’ and reopening the strait of Hormuz
Oil prices plunge 15% to below $100, stocks surge and dollar slumps after Trump announces US-Iran ceasefire
Investors relieved by news of two-week ceasefire and temporary reopening of strait of Hormuz
Asian benchmarks jump after oil prices sink in response to the Iran ceasefire
Asian shares are surging as oil prices plunged after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire that includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump Backs Down, but Questions Remain Over Iran and the Strait of Hormuz
President Trump’s short-term intimidation may have worked, but the fundamental divides with Iran are as sharp as they were in February.
Oil rises above $110 as Trump deadline looms for Iran to reopen strait
IMF head warns Middle East war will lead to higher inflation and slower global growth
War historian: Trump’s idea on the Strait of Hormuz is ‘not in the realm of reality’
Trump to hold press conference on Iran war after profanity-laden threats on social media
Trump to speak to media at 1pm ET after threatening Iran on Easter Sunday over the closer of the strait of Hormuz
Trump’s Lesson From Risky Rescue: Threaten to Go Harder at Iran
In an expletive-laced social media post, the president said Iran should open the Strait of Hormuz or he would bomb bridges and power plants.
‘Unhinged madman’: US politicians react to Trump’s expletive-laden threat to Iran
Marjorie Taylor Greene and Bernie Sanders among those responding with alarm to Trump writing ‘open the fuckin’ strait, you crazy bastards’
Trump threatens Iran with ‘Hell’ over Strait of Hormuz in profane post
Trump escalated threats against Iran’s power plants, bridges and other infrastructure in an expletive-laden post on Truth Social on Easter morning.
The war’s economic impact could get worse for Americans
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz is disrupting economic activity across Asia and Europe. The U.S. may escape the worst effects, but it will not emerge unscathed.
Business - Iran sets up 'tollbooth' in Strait of Hormuz for ships seeking safe passage
Multiple Chinese vessels retreat at Strait of Hormuz after Iran warnings in rare ally move
At least three Chinese-linked vessels reportedly turned back at the Strait of Hormuz after IRGC warnings, signaling an unusual development in China-Iran relations.
Stablecoin payments go 'invisible' in Southeast Asia as crypto card business surges
StraitsX, a Singapore-based company, has seen rapid growth in its stablecoin card program, with a 40x surge in transaction volume and an 83x increase in card issuance between 2024 and 2025.
China Deploys Jet-Converted Drones Near Taiwan Strait
China has also been investing heavily in more advanced drone technologies, including stealth UAVs and carrier-based unmanned systems.
Trump reveals ‘present’ from Iran as oil tankers move through Strait of Hormuz
Trump claims oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz signal real talks, as Steve Witkoff reports positive signs in U.S.-Iran backchannel negotiations.
Iran war: how rising energy prices are affecting people around the world
Energy costs are rising globally due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war. Other supply chains could also be in peril.
Trump touts ‘significant’ Iran ‘present’ linked to Strait of Hormuz as deal talks heat up
President Donald Trump said Iran gave the U.S. a 'significant' oil and gas gift tied to the Strait of Hormuz, saying Iran is ready to make a deal on nuclear weapons.
Rick Scott expects other countries to support American push to reopen Strait of Hormuz
'Iran's going to have to make a decision.'
Trump’s Political Risk Insurance Plan for Ships in the Gulf Could Benefit China, Says Democratic Senator
President Trump’s $20 billion plan to provide political risk insurance for ships aimed at unblocking the Strait of Hormuz could end up ultimately
No 10 says Starmer had ‘constructive’ call with Trump on Middle East and strait of Hormuz
PM will meet with the Commons liaison committee and chair the government’s Cobra emergency committee today
Oil prices rise after Trump issues ultimatum and Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz indefinitely
Oil prices rose Sunday after President Donald Trump threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Monday evening.
Oil prices face new pressure as US and Iran trade threats
Trump said the US would attack Iran's power plants if it didn't reopen the Strait of Hormuz in 48 hours. Iran responded on Sunday with is own threats.
Trump’s UN Ambassador on the Strait of Hormuz: ‘Other countries need to help’
WATCH: Trump says 'we don't need' Strait of Hormuz after allies won't help U.S. escort ships
Speaking with reporters as he departed the White House, Trump said “it would be nice” if the countries that rely on the Strait of Hormuz would get involved in helping to keep it open.
US furiously seeks to avert potential months-long closure of Strait of Hormuz
US officials are furiously trying to avert a potential months-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz, privately acknowledging that reopening the key waterway is a problem without a clear solution and dependent at least in part on what lengths President Donald Trump is willing to go to force the Iranian regime’s hand, multiple administration and intelligence officials tell CNN.
Can Jonah Peretti Save BuzzFeed From Extinction?
Facing financial straits, the founder is betting on a skunkworks for A.I. experiments.
Oil prices hold steady even as Iraq resumes some exports via Turkey
Oil prices held steady Wednesday after Iraq clinched a deal to resume some crude exports via Turkey. It’s not a ton of oil, but it’s what amounts for good news these days as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked.
Iran puts Trumpism to the test
Oil and gas prices are soaring after Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. And Trump faces a political revolt highlighted Tuesday when a national security official quit.
Trump lashes out at European allies that rejected his calls to help in Iran
President Donald Trump’s brief and aggressive attempt to corral an international coalition to police the Strait of Hormuz concluded in disappointment on Tuesday.
Democratic Rep. says U.S. should have better planned for Strait of Hormuz being used as a ‘choke point’
Trump says NATO's refusal to help on Iran is 'very foolish mistake'
Trump called on nations to help police the Strait of Hormuz after Iran responded to U.S.-Israeli attacks by using drones, missiles and mines to \u200ceffectively close the channel for tankers.
Oil prices jump as Iran warns Strait of Hormuz ‘cannot be the same’
Oil prices spiked Tuesday as Iran intensified its attacks on energy infrastructure across the Middle East and a senior regime figure suggested that the crucial Strait of Hormuz wouldn’t become safe for ships anytime soon.
POLITICO Correspondent reports the WH wants countries to ‘participate performatively’ in Strait of Hormuz
Strait of Hormuz: Trump needs a coalition. Here’s how to build one
The first two weeks of the Iran crisis have demonstrated military dominance by the US and Israel, with asymmetrical responses from Iran. How this plays out over the coming weeks will determine the outcome.
Trump is failing at the business of war
Nicholas Grossman: The president needs the Strait of Hormuz opened, but the lie-filled bluster he relied on to succeed in business and domestic politics aren’t working.
Trump calls on allies to help guard the Strait of Hormuz. Most have refused
The diplomatic friction reflects the limits of Trump’s influence at a moment when the global economy is absorbing one of the worst oil supply shocks in modern history.
Trump insisted he didn’t need allies’ help in Iran. Now he’s demanding they step in
NATO allies face calls from Trump to help address the Strait of Hormuz crisis, raising doubts about the US president’s claims the Iran war is going well after he previously insisted he didn’t need their help.
Trump criticizes allies who aren’t helping secure the Strait of Hormuz
Trump suggests he may delay China trip due to Iran war, but Bessent says it's not to pressure on Strait of Hormuz
Bessent downplays rising oil prices and says the Treasury Department doesn't plan to intervene.
Trump: ‘About seven’ countries in talks to help police Strait of Hormuz
A Rare Peek Behind the Curtain of Washington Spycraft
Plus, Trump tries to build a coalition over the Strait of Hormuz, and the voting ID bill could produce a lively week in the Senate.
UK not obliged to support every demand of ‘transactional’ US president, minister says
Donald Trump has threatened Nato allies over failure to send ships to protect strait of Hormuz, but Pat McFadden says UK relation with US remain strong
2 of US' 3 mine-hunting ships for Middle East just seen in Asia
The Independence-class littoral combat ships were seen docked at Penang amid worries that Iran may mine the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices climb past $105 a barrel as war in Iran enters third week
The price of oil rose to its highest level since July 2022 Sunday evening as the Trump administration suggested the war with Iran could last several more weeks and President Donald Trump called on the international community for help reopening the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers.
Exclusive | Oil Industry Warns Trump Administration Energy Crisis Will Likely Worsen
Oil executives told officials in White House meetings that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz might push up oil prices further.
Trump Rejects Deal With Iran on Current Terms as War Rages On
President Donald Trump said Iran is ready to make a deal to end the war but the US wants better terms, signaling no let up in a conflict that’s brought shipping in the strategic Strait of Hormuz to a near standstill and upended energy markets.
Trump Knew the Risk of Iran Blocking the Strait of Hormuz. He Still Went to War.
The president told his White House team that Tehran would likely capitulate before closing the strait, the world’s most vital shipping lane.
Trump says US ‘obliterated’ targets in strike on key Iranian oil hub
Trump said the U.S. bombed Iran’s Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub, and warned against interference in the Strait of Hormuz.
Congestion pricing, energy demands driving up cost of doing business in New York
United Refining Chairman and CEO John Catsimatidis joins 'Mornings with Maria' to discuss Strait of Hormuz tensions, oil price swings, President Donald Trump’s response to Iran and New York City’s budget crisis.
Trump administration underestimated Iran war’s impact on Strait of Hormuz
The Pentagon and National Security Council significantly underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to US military strikes while planning the ongoing operation, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.
DC Wrap: New Iran leader issues first statement; oil prices hit $100 a barrel
A look at the day's biggest stories in national politics
DC Wrap: New Iran leader issues first statement; oil prices hit $100 a barrel
A look at the day's biggest stories in national politics
The world just smashed the emergency glass on oil prices. Now it’s up to Trump for a long-term fix
Dozens of countries have done the unprecedented, releasing an historic amount of crude from emergency reserves to prevent high oil prices from crippling the economy. If that doesn’t work, there’s only one serious option left: ending the war and opening the Strait of Hormuz.
Can the West keep the Strait of Hormuz open?
‘Death valley’ oil-tanker shipping passage crucial to world’s energy prices
Oil prices rise again as more vessels attacked near the Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices rebounded Wednesday, as worries about a prolonged supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz outweighed a report of a potential record release of oil reserves.
Business - Oil markets swing on stockpile release and Hormuz Strait mine reports
Iran begins laying mines in Strait of Hormuz, sources say
Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy chokepoint that carries about one-fifth of all crude oil, according to two people familiar with US intelligence reporting on the issue.
Iran's blockade of Strait of Hormuz sends oil prices soaring
Donald Trump says the Iran war may be over soon. But the US President also threatened to escalate attacks if Iran doesn't let tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Around the world, consumer fuel prices have soared.
Trump Seeks to Calm Oil and Gas Markets but Says Iran War Will Go On
The president said the U.S. could accompany tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary to keep oil flowing. “We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough,” he said.
VIEW Oil surges 20% as Iran war fuels supply fears
Oil prices jumped about 20% in early trading on Monday, hitting their highest since July 2022, as the expanding U.S.-Israeli war with Iran fuelled fears of tighter supply and prolonged disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
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