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For Texas GOP, immigration politics show signs of fading potency
Texas voters have listed immigration and border security among their top issues for years, but recent polling found they are less of a priority than at any point in recent history.
New poll finds big shift in Michigan governor's race
The new polling numbers represented a stark shift from a similar poll the Detroit Regional Chamber commissioned in late January and early February.
In California governor race, single-payer healthcare is a litmus test. There’s still no way to pay for it
Single-payer healthcare is a central talking point in the chaotic race for California governor. In a crowded field, top-polling Democrats are declaring their support for a government-run health system but providing few details about how they’d accomplish it.
Are Democrats growing more accepting of political violence? Here's a closer look
We looked through recent polling to get a sense of how broad the support for political violence is among Democrats and other Americans.
The politics of Trump's ballroom
WEST PALM BEACH, Florida — President Trump was about a half-hour into his second speech of the day, musing about the danger he faced last week at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. “Saturday night, it was good for one thing. People are loving my ballroom now,” Trump told a crowd last night. “That’s the only thing. They love my ballroom.” Ever since he was hustled off stage at the Washington Hilton last week, after an attempted shooter breached the dinner’s security perimeter and sent guests diving to the floor, the president has argued that the incident is proof for why his White House ballroom is needed. Only his planned $400 million, 90,000-square-foot project, Trump has reasoned, can keep a president truly safe at major events. It’s true that a bunch of GOP lawmakers have jumped on board with new legislation and words of support for Trump’s project. House Speaker Mike Johnson, Sen. Rand Paul and other prominent Republicans went on TV to talk about the need for a ballroom. But as we reported at The Washington Post this week, “people” aren’t really changing their minds on Trump’s ballroom. A new Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll found that most Americans still oppose the ballroom project: 56 percent against it versus 28 percent in favor. The numbers are the same as a poll from last year, the Post’s polling whiz Scott Clement found. Other new polls have found similar margins, too. “I’m just not a giant fan, especially of extravagance,” one independent voter told me. “I mean, in the era we’re in right now, given how much people are struggling, it just doesn’t make a lot of sense to me to spend $400 million on a ballroom.” How we got here The Washington Post has followed Trump’s ballroom project very closely. (My colleague Jonathan Edwards may have written the most total words of any reporter about the project; I may be second.) The project exploded as a national issue after Trump tore down the White House’s East Wing after initially promising not to touch it.1 Historic preservationists sued, and about a month ago, a federal judge ordered a halt to ballroom construction.2 The only way the ballroom could proceed, U.S. District Judge Richard Leon ruled, was if Congress explicitly authorized Trump’s plans. (An appeals court has stayed Leon’s order for now.) The judge’s ruling raised an obvious question: would Congress authorize the project? Keep in mind, “authorization” doesn’t mean that Congress needs to necessarily fund the planned $400 million project; they could just sign off on the private donations that Trump has solicited to pay for the ballroom.3 But GOP lawmakers really didn’t want to talk about the ballroom, we reported at The Post just a few weeks ago. One major reason was the ballroom’s bad polling — not a small detail with many of their own midterm elections looming. The White House Correspondents’ Dinner incident, and Trump’s advocacy, may have changed the political conversation around the ballroom. As this week’s polling shows, it doesn’t seem to have affected the fundamental questions surrounding the project. To put it another way, voters still say that cost-of-living concerns are top-of-mind heading into the midterms. Some Republican and independent voters have told me that they see the ballroom as a vanity project that will help Trump but do nothing for their own lives. It might not help Republicans that Trump has dismissed some of the cost-of-living concerns. He’s described “affordability” as a buzzword manufactured by Democrats whose policies helped cause inflation. “They’ve got one good line of bullshit,” Trump said in his first speech yesterday, delivered at a Florida retirement community known as The Villages. Thanks for reading Dan Diamond's newsletter! Subscribe for free to stay up-to-date on my work. Subscribe Speaking of Trump’s speeches… I’m down in Florida because it’s my “duty week” as a White House reporter — basically, I follow the president wherever he goes. (And then hand the baton off to one of my Washington Post colleagues next week.) As part of my duty week, I’ve spent a few days covering the White House’s reaction to Saturday’s attempted shooting, including officials’ review of the security protocols to protect the president. Trump was restrained in the wake of the incident, addressing the nation from the White House briefing room about the need for peaceful dialogue and trying to lower the temperature. But he’s clearly been itching to get back out of the White House, and I was curious to hear how his Florida speeches would go. And — to my ears — it was an unburdened Trump. Not the one we saw Saturday night in the White House briefing room, but the one we witnessed on the campaign trail in 2024. Loose, dropping profanities, mocking everyone, including members of his team. “We have a man here who knows more about Medicaid, Medicare, medical crap than any human being. Where’s Dr. Oz? Where the hell are you, stand up,” Trump said, referring to Mehmet Oz, the administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. “It’s the most boring trip I’ve ever made. He’s telling me about Medicare, Medicaid. All I want to do is take care of you, I don’t care. I said, ‘You work out the details.’” I wrote up the speech, as Trump headed to West Palm Beach to deliver more remarks a few hours later. The White House didn’t like my story. Their rapid-response team called it the work of a “total loser”4 and “a miserable TDS-ridden moron.” You can be the judge of whether it’s a fair story or the product of someone afflicted with “TDS.” (The White House’s shorthand for “Trump Derangement Syndrome.”) I’ve pasted the story below with a gift link, meaning that you don’t need to be a Washington Post subscriber to read it. It might prompt you for an email address, though. Meanwhile, I’ll be down in Florida for the rest of the weekend, covering the president. It’s TBD whether those stories will be deemed TDS-afflicted, too. 1 Jonathan details the past six months of ballroom fallout, reactions and the implications for executive authority here. I also had a great time talking about Trump’s ballroom and other projects with Australia’s ABC News Daily on a podcast this week. 2 The judge allowed underground construction and national security-related work to continue. But that hasn’t been enough for Trump, who says the ballroom itself is essential for his protection. 3 The ballroom donors include companies like Palantir, Google and Amazon. For transparency, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos owns The Washington Post, where I work. No one has ever interfered with our team’s coverage of the ballroom or our mentions of Amazon or Bezos, and if that changed, I’d speak out. 4 To be fair, I’ve spent the morning working on stories and writing this Substack post rather than enjoying the beautiful Florida weather. So they may be onto something about who’s winning and who’s losing.
Chris Dudley was on Oregon’s political sidelines, but he’s back and wants another shot
Dudley is trailing the other top two contenders, state Sen. Christine Drazan and state Rep. Ed Diehl in recent polling. And Drazan just nabbed an endorsement from the state’s largest newspaper.
Americans really don’t like Trump’s attempts at ornamentation
Up until now, there’s been little polling about President Donald Trump’s efforts to gild the nation’s capital and government. But as it turns out, Americans seem to regard these things as about as ghastly as they might seem.
What polls show about Republicans, Democrats and violence
Polling suggests recent events have made the perception of violence and its political motivations more of a wash — even if more people tend to fault Republicans’ rhetoric.
A Special Session in Florida — split signals, different speeds
New data analysis and polling reveal a mixed mandate.
The G512 X is Logitech’s most advanced and customizable gaming keyboard yet
Featuring support for both mechanical and analog switch with TMR sensors, rapid trigger tech and an 8K polling rate, the Logitech G512 X might be Logitech's fanciest and most customizable gaming keyboard to date.
Political inflection point? Trump’s approval rating is cratering
Chris Hayes breaks down new polling that shows Trump’s approval rating hitting record lows amid his war in Iran as the U.S. economy falters.
Jay Collins remains in Governor's race, says he's buying ads to prove it
The LG, polling in single digits, says the President's preferred candidate can't win.
Trump's approval rating drops over economy, Iran war in new poll
New polling from NBC News Decision Desk measured new lows for the president's second term. See the numbers.
5 takeaways from recent Iran polls that look increasingly grim for Trump
The US war with Iran is getting more unpopular over time. And as we’ve gotten more extensive polling, we learning more about why that is.
Polling stations close in pivotal Hungary election that could unseat long-time Prime Minister Orbán
Hungarians cast ballots Sunday in Europe's most consequential election this year, setting a record turnout in a vote that could unseat populist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán after 16 years in power.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
‘We need new blood’: Texas voters look for leadership changes, fresh faces this election year
Some vocal Texas voters say they want to get rid of politicians who've served the state for decades. Much of that sentiment can be boiled down to a preference for younger candidates with new energy — or even older ones who buck long-held status quo.
Jay Collins blames campaign woes on 'suppression polling'
He also says Byron Donalds isn't leading the race.
A GOP-aligned group is using Klan imagery to target Black voters
Polling and early voting so far suggest a close contest - prompting both sides of the redistricting campaign to pour in tens of millions of dollars.
Poll: Colorado Gov. Jared Polis loses support among Democrats
Gov. Jared Polis is losing steam among members of his party, particularly progressive Democrats, according to a recent poll. Other statewide Democrats also saw their favorability ratings drop, though relatively stable compared to the governor’s numbers, the poll conducted by the Colorado Polling Institute in late March said. Forty-four percent of respondents said they view […]
US health officials appear to shy away from anti-vaccine talk ahead of midterms
Elections seem top-of-mind for the Maha movement as key polling indicates anti-vaccine views are a liability
Hector Mujica enters CD 28 race, setting up potentially competitive challenge to Carlos Giménez
His switch from running for Senate to a Congressional bid follows polling that showed him within striking distance of the incumbent.
Collins does not want ‘boots on the ground’ in Iran
The senator also shrugged off polling data about her potential opponents in the election this fall.
Health care polling as top issue for first time since 2020: Gallup
Americans are more concerned about the availability and cost of health care than any other domestic issue, reclaiming the top spot for the first time since 2020, according to a new Gallup poll. The…
How polling failures, gambling legalization and political gridlock paved the way for the explosive rise of prediction markets
While media outlets are signing deals with Polymarket and Kalshi for their insights into the wisdom of crowds, gamblers are pouncing on opportunities to wager on geopolitics and celebrity weddings.
The Race to Succeed Newsom Has All the Democrats’ Problems
After more than a year in disarray, Democrats finally seem to be getting it together. The party is heading into the midterm elections with an edge in both polling and messaging. Voters are energized — see this weekend’s No Kings rallies — and that has led to a string of wins in special elections, including one last week that flipped a district in Florida that takes in President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort.
Fielder’s health crisis fallout. Plus: New poll on congressional race
Jackie Fielder’s health crisis has SF’s political world on edge. And a supermajority of moderates that once seemed impossible suddenly isn’t. Plus: new Pelosi race polling.
Will: What gladiatorial politics will bury in the midterms
Candidates in this year’s elections will soon be bouncing around like corn being popped. By November, the nation might long for a rebirth of political reticence.
Trump’s overlapping troubles are starting to resemble a set of political Russian nesting dolls
Bethany Irvine: Dismal poll numbers show the president’s mounting domestic issues are only amplified by Iran.
Byron Donalds blasts partial DHS funding bill and Senate's political games
Rep. Byron Donald, R-Fla., discusses the partial DHS funding deal, new polling showing voter frustration with Washington, and a key GOP House seat flipping in Florida on 'Varney & Co.'
Steve Kornacki's guide to the next big elections on the calendar: From the Politics Desk
Plus, where talks to end the DHS shutdown stand.
Defiant Democratic candidates in California governors race dig in
State Democratic Party leaders, including Gov. Gavin Newsom, appear unwilling to force lower-polling Democrats out of the race.
Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley tie for 3rd in New Hampshire GOP 2028 poll, far behind Marco Rubio, JD Vance
New polling shows another run for the Governor may be challenging.
'Not a done deal': Democrats start to sweat over Virginia's redistricting referendum
The unique nature of the April special election and the state's recent redistricting history have presented challenges for Democrats, even as they hold a financial edge in the race.
Texas primary results showed limitations of polling
Many factors explain why pollsters face challenges in getting good sample sizes that truly reflect who is going to cast a ballot.
US troops in Iran? What Americans think, and what it would mean
Polling suggests the idea of US troops on the ground in Iran is a complete nonstarter for Americans overall — and even a tough sell for the GOP base.
People turn to private health care to beat long NHS waits, says watchdog
The patient watchdog warns of two-tier service as polling shows numbers paying for care is on the rise.
Contributor: Federal power grabs on elections are not about fraud
Trump has called the SAVE Act his top priority. But why? His commission found no widespread problem that needed solving.
3 Democrats compete for most favorable governor's candidate in poll
The governor's race remains crowded, and polling has been anything but consistent.
Poll: Voters who say economic and political systems are stacked against them tie a record high
Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt said the numbers indicate “historic levels of anger and disgust with our political and economic systems.”
California Democrats hope new polling will nudge candidates to exit
The California Democratic Party chair said Tuesday that the party is spending “multiple six figures” to conduct and post six surveys of the race.
What to watch for in the Georgia special election: From the Politics Desk
Plus, new polling shows voters are wary of AI.
Poll: Majority of voters say risks of AI outweigh the benefits
In new NBC News polling, the only topics that were less popular than AI were the Democratic Party and Iran.
Pre-midterms, GOP confronts cooling support from young men over Trump
Polling suggests a softening of support among young men over Trump's policies, threatening Republicans' hopes of retaining majorities in Congress.
Experts weigh in on California Democratic Party drama over governor's race
California Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks published an open letter to candidates this week, suggesting lower polling Democrats should consider dropping out of the race. All but one of those candidates ignored the plea.
Trump's risky business
Early polling on the Iran war suggests there may be little or no reward to be had.
Trump's war in Iran polls badly, but will it hurt Republicans in 2026?
Trump's war is polling badly and has increased gas prices, but supporters say public opinion will shift.
Jasmine Crockett concedes, James Talarico wins Texas Senate primary
The race was called overnight, following confusion over polling close times that led the Texas Supreme Court to weigh in.
5 takeaways from the Texas and North Carolina 2026 primary kickoff
Polling place drama unfolded in the closely watched Texas Democratic Senate primary, in which James Talarico did well against Rep. Jasmine Crockett.
Takeaways from Kristi Noem’s combative Senate Judiciary Committee hearing
Senators grilled Noem about her early descriptions of two US citizens who were killed by federal officers in Minneapolis, her use of executive jets and whether ICE will be sent to polling places
Vulnerable Republicans in California's redrawn congressional districts back war in Iran
Republicans facing tough reelection fights in this year's midterms are backing President Trump's attacks on Iran, which are unpopular, according to recent polling.
Emerson College releases poll for Texas Senate primaries. See results
Emerson College Polling released its final surveys for the Texas Senate primaries. See who is winning.
Politics Unplugged Podcast: Paul Bentz on latest polling
Pollster Paul Bentz returns to look at the latest numbers in the District 1 race in Congress.
Politics Unplugged Podcast: Paul Bentz on latest polling
Arizona pollster Paul Bentz joins with exclusive polling data on the heated Democratic primary in Congressional District 1, where Amish Shah holds a commanding lead, but nearly half of voters remain undecided. We discuss what voter registration trends mean for 2026, why affordability tops every other issue, and whether Democrats can replicate their 2022 success. Then, Dennis and Colin debate this year's Rock and Roll Hall of Fame nominees—from Joy Division to Mariah Carey to Wu-Tang Clan—and reveal which acts truly deserve a spot.
DHS official promises that federal immigration agents won't be at polling places during midterm elections
A Department of Homeland Security official on Wednesday told state election administrators that immigration agents will not be stationed at the polls during November's midterm elections, trying to swat down one of Democrats' greatest fears about possible election interference from the Trump administration.
DHS official promises that federal immigration agents won't be at polling places during the midterms
A DHS official is promising top state election administrators that immigration agents will not be at polling places during November’s midterm election
ICE won’t be at polling places for midterms, Trump appointee tells state election officials
A Donald Trump appointee at the Department of Homeland Security told state election officials from around the country Wednesday that federal immigration agents won’t be deployed to polling places during the 2026 midterms, according to multiple sources on the call.
Javier Palomarez, USHBC President, Warns State of the Union Is Disconnected from Small Business Reality
WASHINGTON, Feb. 25, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Last night’s State of the Union address focused heavily on economic momentum, stock market performance, energy policy, immigration enforcement, and tariffs. While President Trump emphasized record market highs and economic resilience, recent polling among Hispanic business owners suggests a widening gap between macroeconomic indicators and kitchen-table reality. According to the United States Hispanic Business Council (USHBC)’s most recent survey of
68% of Americans Say Trump Has the Wrong Priorities
As Mr. Trump prepares for his State of the Union address, polls show that most Americans say he isn’t paying enough attention to the country’s biggest problems.
Kornacki: Trump’s political position looks ‘an awful lot’ like it did eight years ago
Ahead of President Trump’s State of the Union address, NBC News Chief Data Analyst Steve Kornacki discusses the president’s approval rating and the polling landscape for both Democrats and Republicans heading into the midterms.
Trump wants to focus on health care in the midterms, creating headaches for the GOP
President Donald Trump is preparing to make health care a central focus of his midterm sales pitch, despite weak polling and misgivings among some of his own advisers.
Trump wants to focus on health care in the midterms, creating headaches for the GOP
President Donald Trump is preparing to make health care a central focus of his midterm sales pitch, despite weak polling and misgivings among some of his own advisers.
Gallup ends its presidential tracking poll, the latest shift in the public opinion landscape
Gallup, one of the country’s most well-known polling firms, announced Wednesday that they will no longer track presidential approval or favorability of political figures. The move ends the longest-running continuous effort to track US opinion of the nation’s president, dating back to the tenure of Franklin D. Roosevelt in the late 1930s .
Fact check: The Trump lies an NBC anchor let slide
When President Donald Trump claimed to NBC Nightly News anchor Tom Llamas in a Wednesday interview that “I’m getting – starting to get great polls on the economy,” Llamas quickly pushed back by noting that Trump’s polling on the economy is “not great.”
How Americans' top concerns compare to over 100 other countries, according to Gallup
New international polling from Gallup shows that Americans are exceptionally anxious about their political system
Poll: People View Prior Authorization as Greatest Burden in Navigating the Health System
New KFF polling explores the challenges beyond costs that people with insurance face in navigating the health care system. People cite prior authorization review as their top problem by a wide margin, with a third (32%) saying prior authorization requirements are a “major burden.
Americans Are More Worried About Health Care Costs Than Gas or Groceries
The price of health care tops the US public’s long list of economic worries ahead of the midterm elections, according to new polling data, as “affordability” has become a buzzword championed by politicians on both sides of the aisle.
Brit Hume: Minnesota immigration operations have hit ‘political limits’
Fox News chief political analyst Brit Hume assesses new polling that suggests Americans believe I.C.E. operations are aggressive on ‘Special Report.’
GOP calls Trump its ‘secret weapon’ — but polls show warning signs heading into midterms
Trump's approval rating average sits at 42% as Republicans face significant midterm challenges, with polling showing erosion among Independents and on key issues.
Political interference, activism a constant under Polis’ Colorado Parks & Wildlife
Colorado Parks & Wildlife can’t catch a break. If polling were used to measure public trust in agencies, it would be a dreary picture. This, however, is the result of political interference with the agency, not as a result of the professionals managing wildlife in the state. Former CPW Director Jeff Davis was a political […]
Mary Katharine Ham details ‘political cost’ of Trump’s immigration policy
The ‘Fox News Sunday’ panel discusses the massive unrest in Minneapolis after a deadly ICE-involved shooting and new polling on President Donald Trump’s immigration policies.
Cook Political Report shifts 18 House races toward Democrats
The Cook Political Report on Thursday shifted 18 House races toward Democrats in the latest sign of the party’s momentum ahead of the midterms. Citing President Trump’s unpopular polling numbers a…
Most Americans do not want US to acquire Greenland, polling says
As President Donald Trump ratchets up threats to take Greenland from Denmark, a series of polls say most Americans are not supportive of his efforts.
Americans not on board with Trump's military interventions, polls say
After Venezuela, Trump is doubling down on threats of military action against Iran and Greenland. New polling found most Americans aren't on board.
More Americans identify as political independents, a new poll shows
New polling from Gallup shows that Americans are increasingly identifying as political independents and rejecting the labels of the two major political parties
About 6 in 10 Americans say they feel politically connected by generation
Americans feel more politically connected by generation than they do by race or gender, CNN polling data finds.
Then & Now politics: USAID cuts at Virginia Tech, transportation museum study, Appomattox polling places, food bank funding
Virginia Tech research jobs spared despite USAID shutdown. Study about converting transportation museum to state agency still in limbo. Appomattox closes 1 voting precinct, takes no action on secon…
What Americans would tell Donald Trump or Democratic leaders if they could
Most Americans don’t have faith that their political leaders care what they have to say. But if they had the chance to tell Washington something, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS finds, they’d say plenty, much of it about the economy.
Some Americans are already thinking about the 2028 election: CNN poll
About half of Americans say they’ve already given the 2028 presidential election, set to be the first race since 2016 without a sitting president vying for the nomination on either side, at least some thought, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.
Affordable Health Care in Jeopardy for Millions
Lawmakers are set to leave Washington this week for the holidays, without extending the expiring Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax subsidies. With millions of people facing dramatic health care cost spikes if those credits end January 1, a recent KFF polling and data compilation offers context on health care cost burdens, underscoring the importance of […]
Week in politics: Indiana rejects redistricting, health care in limbo and Trump mocks affordability
Polling indicates most Americans are unhappy with how President Trump is handling the economy.
Week in politics: Indiana rejects redistricting, health care in limbo and Trump mocks affordability
Polling indicates most Americans are unhappy with how President Trump is handling the economy.
'I love an underdog': Trump-Zohran Mamdani voters are at the center of an unexpected relationship
NBC News exit polling from the November vote found that about 1 in 10 Trump voters who showed up to the polls backed Mamdani.
What key swing voters want from their candidates: From the Politics Desk
Plus, the health care stalemate on Capitol Hill sets up a major 2026 issue.