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Democrats could win majority of governor’s offices for first time in 16 years
As the political prospects for Republicans worsen ahead of November’s midterm elections, the GOP is increasingly playing defense over its yearslong grip on state governments. That’s particularly true for gubernatorial elections, as Democrats could win a majority of governorships for the first time since 2010. Currently, Republicans boast a 26-24 gubernatorial advantage over Democrats. This […]
‘Let Troy be Troy’: How Maine Democrats’ hope to beat Sen. Susan Collins is working to quiet doubters
As Democrats enter the homestretch of their longtime quest to defeat Maine GOP Sen. Susan Collins, they are placing their hope in a fifth-generation logger from the state’s rural north who speaks with a distinct Allagash accent, displays an apparent penchant for boba tea and has never been this close to the national spotlight before.
Voters Trust Democrats On Healthcare Costs By Wide Margin Over GOP
By a margin of nearly two-to-one, voters trust Democrats over Republicans when it comes to the issue of healthcare costs, a new KFF poll shows.
GOP is at risk of significant state legislative losses, Post analysis finds
Democrats have a rare chance to boost their state presences after years of Republican gains.
Democrats are taking big chunks of GOP voters in key Senate races, polls show
President Donald Trump has never had worse poll numbers with his base than he does ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Trump takes midterms message to deep red Nebraska
President Donald Trump gave supporters a campaign-style speech in Nebraska in a continued effort to fire up the GOP base ahead of the midterms. CNN’s Jeff Zeleny reports.
Retiring GOP Senator reveals his ‘WTF’ moments during the second Trump term
Trump uses anti-transgender slur to attack South Carolina Senate candidate
President Donald Trump on Monday used an anti-transgender slur to attack Democratic South Carolina Senate candidate Dr. Annie Andrews, as he tries to push his hand-picked GOP candidate, Sen. Darline Graham, over the finish line in the midterm election.
Trump uses anti-transgender slur to attack South Carolina Senate nominee
(CNN) — President Donald Trump on Monday used an anti-transgender slur to attack Democratic South Carolina Senate nominee Dr. Annie Andrews, as he tries to push his handpicked GOP candidate,
Trump uses anti-transgender slur to attack South Carolina Senate candidate
(CNN) — President Donald Trump on Monday used an anti-transgender slur to attack Democratic South Carolina Senate candidate Dr. Annie Andrews, as he tries to push his hand-picked GOP candidate,
Trump’s midterm messaging undercuts GOP candidates
Many Republican candidates have found themselves in surprisingly competitive races
Trump’s midterm messaging undercuts GOP candidates
Many Republican candidates have found themselves in surprisingly competitive races
Ted Cruz Says JD Vance Is ‘Feeling Insecure’ amid ‘Political Bomb-Throwing’ Ahead of 2028 GOP Primary
“In my experience, people engage in political bomb-throwing when they’re feeling insecure,” the Texas Republican said of the vice president over the weekend
Whole Hog Politics: Audience capture and the GOP’s #content trap
You did not, I hope, have to take any notice of an empty online furor over Arkansas’s Republican Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders’s campaign ad that cast a young, white male as a welfare freeloader redeemed from sloth by...
‘A five-alarm fire’ confronts President Trump in red-state October blitz
The midterm elections were just two days away the last time a sitting president visited Grand Island, the fourth-largest city in the middle of one of the nation’s most reliably Republican states.
Keller on what happens when all politics is actually national
President Trump's Massachusetts numbers and what they mean for GOP candidates
Trump takes extraordinary steps to target midterms, alarming critics
Trump's election moves include a redistricting push, seeking to restrict voting and floating a $5,000 payment to every American adult if the GOP wins.
Trump heads to Nebraska on Monday, where his plan to import more beef has angered ranchers
President Donald Trump is campaigning in Nebraska on Monday alongside GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts.
Trump heads to Nebraska on Monday, where his plan to import more beef has angered ranchers
President Donald Trump is campaigning in Nebraska on Monday alongside GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts | News-Talk 1380 WAOK
Could Democrats lose a Senate race in New Hampshire? A GOP candidate with a famous name tries to flip the seat
Trump holds Ohio midterm rally, urging voters to consider him on the ballot during 32-day campaign tour
President Trump rallied in Ohio as part of a 32-day midterm campaign tour, pushing GOP candidates in a Senate race that could shift control of Congress.
Poll: Latino voters swing away from Trump and Republicans
Democrats have a significant lead among Latino voters in 2026 amid economic concerns, according to the NBC News/Telemundo poll, though the GOP has made some long-term gains.
Politics chat: Midterm polls, Senate races, Trump in Texas
As polls come out with increasing frequency closer to the midterm election, how much credence should voters give them? Meanwhile, President Trump continues campaigning for GOP candidates.
Veteran political forecasters see midterm losses for GOP
Two of the country's top political prognosticators see Democrats likely seizing the House and possibly the Senate. The guardrails Republicans were counting on to stem their losses don't seem to be holding.
Why Ken Paxton could lose a Texas GOP Senate seat to James Talarico
Plagued by ethics allegations, the Senate candidate is unusually vulnerable for a red state Republican.
Why Ken Paxton could lose a Texas GOP Senate seat to James Talarico
Plagued by ethics allegations, the Senate candidate is unusually vulnerable for a red state Republican.
Trump, campaigning in Ohio, says the midterms will bring a ‘big surprise’
The president rallied Saturday for Sen. Jon Husted, who faces a tough race against Democrat Sherrod Brown, and for Vivek Ramaswamy, the state’s GOP candidate for governor.
Ken Paxton’s estranged wife backs him without saying his name
Texas state Senator Angela Paxton, Ken Paxton’s estranged wife, threw her support behind the Texas GOP Senate nominee without naming him, saying in a new ad that she will be “voting for the Republican ticket.” The ad comes after Paxton urged Republican women in remarks last month to support GOP candidates even if they have reservations about them.
Trump’s spat with GOP lawmaker over Daylight Saving Time
President Donald Trump railed against Sen. Tom Cotton in a series of posts on Saturday, accusing the Arkansas Republican of holding up a bill that would make Daylight Saving Time permanent and encouraging people to call the senator at his cellphone number.
NC GOP leaders to call special session on fuel prices
The Senate and House Republican leaders have not set a date for lawmakers to return to Raleigh.
Government Business Review names Whiteside County’s Camarano Economic Development Director of the Year
Whiteside County Economic Development Director Gary Camarano, who is also the executive director of the Northwest Illinois Film Office, has been named Economic Development Director of the Year 2026 by Government Business Review.
Provocative, sexually suggestive ad by Hilton campaign condemned by political allies on the right
A provocative, sexually suggestive ad by GOP gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton is drawing heat from his fellow Republicans while drawing millions of viewers online. Two young women sit on a
Politics At The Pump: Will NC Suspend Gas Tax
State GOP May Rollback Gas Tax Before Election Day
Provocative, sexually suggestive ad by Hilton campaign condemned by political allies on the right
GOP gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton faces backlash from fellow Republicans and Democrats over a provocative ad.
Provocative, sexually suggestive ad by Hilton campaign condemned by political allies on the right
GOP gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton faces backlash from fellow Republicans and Democrats over a provocative ad.
Trump posts GOP lawmaker’s phone number amid spat over Daylight Saving Time
President Donald Trump railed against Sen. Tom Cotton in a series of posts on Saturday, accusing the Arkansas Republican of holding up a bill that would make Daylight Saving Time permanent and encouraging people to call the senator at his cellphone number.
Ted Cruz blasts JD Vance as ‘insecure,’ says he’s focused on helping GOP win midterms
A clash between two potential candidates for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination spilled into public this week.
Senate GOP smashing political spending records in TX with ad-buying binge for Paxton
KVII serves the Amarillo, Texas and Panhandle region with local news, sports and weather for the city and surrounding towns, including Canyon, Hereford, Borger, Pampa, Dalhart, Dumas, Childress, Perryton, Clarendon, Texas; Guymon, Oklahoma; and Clovis, Portales, Tucumcari, New Mexico.
Trump reveals GOP senator’s phone number in battle over daylight saving time
Sen. Tom Cotton, usually a staunch Trump ally, has vowed to oppose efforts for year-round daylight saving time. He reiterated his opposition Saturday.
Ken Paxton’s estranged wife backs his candidacy — without mentioning him by name
Ken Paxton’s estranged wife threw her support behind the Texas GOP Senate nominee without naming him, saying in a new ad that she will be “voting for the Republican ticket.”
Republicans tried to punt health care cuts until after the midterms. It didn’t work.
While most GOP-enacted cuts to Medicaid and other safety net programs won’t happen until 2027, Democrats are speaking to the voters already feeling the squeeze.
Trump makes pitch to Ohio voters as midterms approach
President Donald Trump will lead a rally in a Dayton suburb Saturday in hopes of energizing GOP voters. He'll be joined by Sen. Jon Husted and others.
Gophers HC PJ Fleck Goes Stage-Diving Off FOX Set
Minnesota Gophers coach PJ Fleck launched himself off the FOX Big Noon Kickoff set and crowd-surfed over fans in maroon and gold before the Michigan game.
Gophers men's hockey opener postponed due to unplayable ice
The Gophers were due to play Michigan Tech in Houghton, MI.
'Double-edged sword': Trump blitzes red states amid plunging popularity
Trump is spending precious campaign time and funding in GOP states rather than challenging Democrats in the closest races for control of Congress.
Lawmakers probe allegations that NC health officials used false information to secure Medicaid funds
GOP lawmakers in NC say they are looking into allegations that state health officials used false information to secure federal funding for a Medicaid technology overhaul. The claims were made in a lawsuit that has since been dismissed. The state auditor has revived an audit into the project.
‘Unbelievable’: CNN Political Director Gobsmacked as GOP Retreats From North Carolina, Pours Cash Into Kansas
Trump heads back to Texas on Wednesday as GOP fights to keep state red
Texas, long a safe Republican state, has emerged as a top battleground in midterm races up and down the ballot — but especially in the U.S. Senate race.
Former GOP Rep. David Rivera sentenced to 10 years for secret Venezuela lobbying
David Rivera has been jailed since jurors found him guilty in May on all counts, including failing to register as a foreign agent and conspiracy to commit money laundering as part of his work for former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s government.
Leading GOP Senate PAC pauses spending on NC candidate Michael Whatley
In a blow to Republican Senate candidate Michael Whatley, the leading PAC to maintain the Republican majority withdrew from his campaign, while other North Carolina Republicans find their races at risk.
Top Senate GOP-aligned super PAC pauses N.C. spending, in sign of deepening woes
The Senate Leadership Fund’s pulling money from North Carolina is the latest signal the Republican Party is giving up hope of holding that Senate seat.
GOP super PAC pauses spending in North Carolina Senate race, shifting money to Kansas
The new moves from the Senate Leadership Fund reflect a difficult landscape for Republicans, with increasingly competitive races in red states.
Top Senate GOP group puts pause on spending in North Carolina
National Republicans are starting to make major moves to divert resources away from the North Carolina Senate race where GOP candidate Michael Whatley has long been trailing in polls.
(LETTERS) Kelly Walsh sports debacle and GOP leadership
Oil City News publishes letters, cartoons and opinions as a public service. The content does not necessarily reflect the opinions of Oil City News or its
Steve Hilton faces steep odds in bid for California governor after 20-year GOP drought
Republican Steve Hilton's biggest obstacle to becoming California's next governor is simple math.
Panicked Red-State Republicans Learning Politics on the Fly
GOP candidates in places like Kansas and Texas are having to really campaign for the first time.
With a steel mill and campaign cash, Trump and GOP leaders launch an Iowa rescue mission
Republicans are on a rescue mission in Iowa, touting new plans for a $15 billion steel mill as President Donald Trump and the state’s GOP leaders rush to blunt the political impact of a battered economy and prevent the governor’s office, a Senate seat and three House seats from slipping into Democratic hands in November.
Grand Old Populists: GOP lawmakers target big business
It’s a major risk for big financial services firms, health insurance companies and tech titans, which are the subjects of the hottest rhetoric.
Homan defends ICE crackdown amid growing GOP criticism: "Give me an example of where we went too far"
Trump jokingly calls Paxton a ‘pain in the ass’ at Texas event
President Donald Trump jokingly described Texas Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton as “a pain in the ass” during remarks in Denton, Texas, on Thursday – the latest in a long line of jabs he has made about his staunch ally who is running in a critical race for the GOP.
Trump says planning midterm convention during NFL opener was ‘stupid’
President Donald Trump acknowledged that scheduling the Republican National Committee’s midterm convention during the NFL’s opening game of the 2026 season was not the best idea. The president sat down with Time magazine for an interview this week and was asked about the possibility of Democrats taking control of Congress in the midterm elections. He […]
GA Sec. State Nominee, NJ-7 & Aviation Politics
GA Sec. State GOP nominee Tim Fleming, the battle for NJ-7 and how aviation is shaping politics—and could be impacted by the midterms.
GA Sec. State Nominee, NJ-7 & Aviation Politics
GA Sec. State GOP nominee Tim Fleming, the battle for NJ-7 and how aviation is shaping politics—and could be impacted by the midterms.
GA Sec. State Nominee, NJ-7 & Aviation Politics
GA Sec. State GOP nominee Tim Fleming, the battle for NJ-7 and how aviation is shaping politics—and could be impacted by the midterms.
GOP hold on Florida and Texas governors’ races weakens, nonpartisan analyst says
President Donald Trump’s poor ratings contributed to the Cook Political Report shifting both races from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.”
Trump embarks on rally blitz hoping to energize GOP voters
Trump’s low standing with voters limits the places he can most effectively campaign. Advisers hope he can energize GOP voters.
Maine Dems, GOP exchange jabs over fundraising in the governor’s race
The focus on funds comes as candidates prep for a series of debates and with early voting starting statewide on Monday. Several polls show Pingree ahead of Charles and independent Rick Bennett by a significant margin.
Good science requires much more than evidence
Empiricists believe that scientific theories are true only if they make correct empirical predictions: if we can't verify these predictions, then there is no reason to expect that they tell us anything about reality. However, Professor of Philosophy at King's College David Kyle Johnson argues that this is mistaken. In response to Bas van Fraassen, who has written on this subject for the IAI, he argues that we have many reasons for believing a theory to be true, such as it being parsimonious and having large scope — qualities which have been used throughout the history of science as criteria for judging theories. In 2024, Princeton philosopher Bas van Fraassen wrote a short article for IAI News entitled “Science Does not Describe Reality: The Limits and Benefits of Explanation.” At the time, I was working on two projects (a science book and a Great Course) that, when completed, would (among other things) defend science’s ability to describe reality. I wanted to write a response to van Fraassen, but the projects demanded too much of my attention. But now that those projects are complete, I am in a position to explain the objections to van Fraassen’s thesis. Summarizing van Fraassen’s argumentIn a nutshell, his argument is this: What scientists do is make predictions based on theories and then invite others to test to see whether those predictions are borne out. “If theory T is right, result R should happen in experimental condition C.” Many think that running an experiment that shows that R happens in condition C is proof that theory T is true (and should be believed). But, van Fraassen argues, that R happened in condition C is only a reason to think that R happens in condition C. That’s the only observable, or empirical, result we can actually see, so that is all that we are really justified in believing. (The underlying theory that made that prediction still may or may not be true.) That is why he calls those who accept his position “empiricists.”Before I explain what is wrong with this position, let me explain what it gets right. What van Fraassen Gets RightFirst, a theory correctly predicting the results of an experiment is not, strictly speaking, “proof” that the theory is correct. The basic line of reasoning is this:If the theory T is true, result R should happen. Result R did happen. Thus, theory T is true.In other words:“If T then R. R. Thus, T.”This is a deductively invalid, fallacious mode of reasoning, called “affirming the consequent.” Those premises do not guarantee that the conclusion follows. “If I am in Pennsylvania, then I am in the USA. I am in the USA. Thus, I am in Pennsylvania.” Clearly that argument doesn’t guarantee its conclusion; neither does the above argument.However, science is not a deductive method of reasoning; it is an inductive one. And inductive arguments merely try to raise the probability of their conclusion, not “prove” them for certain. Thus, the fact that an experimental result doesn’t prove a theory is true is irrelevant; it’s not supposed to. That is not what scientific reasoning is about.___If the hypothesis that something exists clearly provides the best explanation for what we can observe, then the belief that it exists is what is rational.___Second, it’s also true that a single experimental result doesn’t provide enough justification to believe that a theory is true. Scientists do not come to a consensus about whether a theory is true by looking at a single experiment; they look at all the evidence to determine where the preponderance of evidence points. The mere fact that I am in the USA raises the probability that I am in Pennsylvania, but not nearly enough to conclude that I am in Pennsylvania. However, if I am also regularly encountering people wearing Eagles and Phillies hats and seeing advertisements for Founding Father tours, I probably am. In the same way, a theory successfully predicting the outcome of one experiment is not enough to conclude that it is true; but if a theory makes a wide variety of predictions that are all vindicated by multiple experiments, performed by many different groups and people, all actively trying to prove the theory false (which is what good scientific experiments are designed to do)—that is a good reason to conclude that the theory is true. In other words, if you repeatedly try to prove something false but can’t, that is a very good indication that it isn’t. The problem of underdeterminationIn reply, those whom van Fraassen calls “empiricists” often point to the “problem of underdetermination.” For any given theory that makes successful predictions about what happens in experimental conditions, there are countless other possible theories that make exactly the same predictions—and since they do, the experimental evidence in question is just as much reason to accept any of those theories as it is to accept our original one. Thus, the argument goes, we have no way of knowing whether our original theory is true, or one of the other “predictively equivalent” theories is true. SUGGESTED VIEWING How Occam's Razor changed the world With Johnjoe McFadden As an example of underdetermination, philosophers often offer this example. The evidence of fossils seems to provide reason to conclude that the universe is quite old; ancient fossils are what the “ancient universe” hypothesis predicts. But it’s also possible that God created an ancient-looking universe 200 years ago, complete with a “fake” fossil record for us to find, to make it look old. The existence of fossils is what that theory predicts too. So, the argument goes, the fossil record can’t be used as evidence that the universe is ancient; the fossil record supports the “200-year-old ancient-looking universe” theory just as much. The problem of underdetermination points out that, for any theory with supporting evidence, we could invent another completely different theory that predicts exactly the same evidence, and thus undermine that evidence’s ability to support the original theory.But this “argument from underdetermination” betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of what scientific reasoning is and how it works. To explain, let me use another rather strange (but very real and commonly discussed) philosophical thought experiment called “The Grue Problem.” The “Grue” ProblemSuppose I want to know what color emeralds are, so I observe a few, see that they all appear green, and form the theory that “all emeralds are green.” I thus predict that the next 100 emeralds I find will also appear to be green. And let’s say that happens, and so I thus conclude that my theory that all emeralds are green is true. Now, one might rightly point out that I don’t know for sure that all emeralds are green—I have not seen them all. Maybe some I haven’t found yet are blue. Fair enough. After all, we used to think that all swans were white, until we found some black ones. But let’s say that I go on a quest and collect every emerald in the universe—and, for the sake of the argument, let’s say I can do this, and can even know that I have every one of them. So, I collect them all, look at them all, and verify that they all appear green. Can’t I now rightly conclude that all emeralds are green?Inspired by the problem of underdetermination, a friend might argue that I cannot.Sure, they all appear green now—but there could be another kind of color called “grue.” Something is grue if it is green up to a certain point in time, but then spontaneously turns blue. And there could be an infinite number of “shades” of grue. Something that is one shade of grue will turn blue at noon today, but something that is another shade of grue will turn blue at noon tomorrow, etc. So yes, the emeralds appear green now; and since they haven’t turned blue yet, they are not some “past” shade of grue. But they might be some “future” shade of grue (e.g., they may turn blue at noon tomorrow). And since all future shades of grue are consistent with “being green up to this point in time,” the evidence you have is completely consistent with the notion that all emeralds are some future shade of grue, rather than green. Indeed, that they would appear green until now is what the “some future shade of grue” hypothesis predicts. So, we have just as much reason to conclude that all emeralds are some shade of grue as we do to conclude that they are green.You’re probably thinking “It’s not equally possible that the emeralds are grue; they are obviously green.” You are right! But explaining why your instinctive reaction to my friend’s argument is correct will help inform why van Fraassen’s “empiricist” is wrong and science actually does describe reality.The main mistake my friend makes is in thinking that the “empirical evidence” (of all the emeralds appearing green) is (or even should be) all I am using to draw the conclusion that all emeralds are green. It is not. I am also considering known facts about how colors typically work; things don’t usually change color, and when they do, they don’t do so suddenly, without cause, and all at once. So, even though the simple evidence of the emeralds all appearing green up to this point is consistent with them being some future shade of grue—that is even what the grue hypothesis “predicts”—it is still exceedingly unlikely that they are. The hypothesis that they are green is much more likely. Understanding science refutes the problem of underdetermination The misunderstanding about science that the “empiricist” pointing to “the problem of underdetermination” makes is similar to the one that my friend made. Science is not just about considering experimental evidence; in fact, it’s not even just about considering empirical evidence. As Ernan McMullin and many other philosophers of science have pointed out, the inference that makes science is “inference to the best explanation” (sometimes called “abduction” or “retroduction” by McMullin). While, depending on the circumstances, scientists use many different kinds of reasoning, science as a whole is, simply put, the process of considering multiple competing explanations and comparing them to certain criteria—explanatory criteria (the kinds of things explanations must be and do, by definition, to be a good explanation)—to see which explanation is the best.And these criteria do not deal only with empirical results. Yes, successful predictions raise the probability of a hypothesis, but it’s also the case that the more new assumptions a theory makes, the less likely it is to be true; every new assumption presents an opportunity for the theory to be false. (The fewer assumptions a theory makes, the simpler or “more parsimonious” it is said to be.) Likewise, the more existing evidence a theory contradicts, the less likely it is, because in order for a theory to be true, every piece of evidence it contradicts has to be somehow faulty. (The fewer established theories a new theory contradicts, the more “conservative” it is said to be.) And, obviously, the more something explains, the better explanation it is. (This is called having “scope.”) If a theory raises unanswerable questions, it’s not expanding our understanding, and thus is not wide-scoping. Scientists consider all these things when deciding which theory to accept, because the theory that adheres best to these explanatory criteria is most likely to be true.___the mere fact that a theory’s predictive success is why it “sticks around” or “becomes accepted” in the scientific community is not a reason to be skeptical about its truth.___The reason the grue hypothesis is no good is because it invents an entirely new kind of color—not just a new shade, but an entirely different category of color (a different way colors work)—and thus is not parsimonious. It raises unanswerable questions about how and why emeralds would just spontaneously change from green to blue (and thus does not have wide scope). And it contradicts what is already well established about how color works (and thus is unconservative).The theories that the problem of underdetermination points to do the same thing. Yes, the theory that God created an “ancient-looking universe” (complete with an ancient-looking fossil record) two hundred years ago is also consistent with the empirical evidence (of a fossil record) that presently exists; but that theory is monumentally unparsimonious (it requires many extra assumptions about infinite entities) and not wide-scoping (it raises unanswerable questions about why God would do such a thing). So, I can rationally conclude that it is false.Indeed, the history of science includes many examples of theories that were rejected because they lacked parsimony and/or scope, even before their falsity (and the truth of their competing theory) was confirmed by observation. As I point out in my book, geocentrism was rejected by the scientific community because it lacked parsimony, almost 200 years before the observation of parallax confirmed that the Earth moves around the sun. And the continuum theory of matter was completely rejected by 1860, because it couldn’t explain chemical reactions or organize matter into a periodic table, even though the experiments that eventually confirmed atomic theory weren’t even proposed until the 1870s. Solving the best of a bad lot problemIn response, the “empiricists” are likely to object, this time pointing to the “best of a bad lot” problem. “We have no reason to conclude that an explanation that has been shown to be better than others is true because we have no guarantee that the true theory was among those that we were considering.” If you have a “lot” (a collection) of poor explanations, even the best one is not true.The responses to this problem, however, are numerous. Peter Lipton argues that the set of hypotheses that scientists consider are not just randomly selected and thus unlikely to contain a theory that is true; they use existing knowledge to home in on what is most likely to be true. A doctor trying to explain abdominal pain is not going to bother wondering whether demons are causing it; they are going to stick with things like appendicitis and kidney stones, because they are most likely. Further, despite its name, inference to the best explanation is not just the process of comparing hypotheses and accepting the best one; we also want one that is a good explanation in its own right. If it’s not, we are going to keep looking until we find an explanation that is. And while that process does not guarantee that we will come across the exact truth, it’s very likely that the theory that emerges as the best will be at least approximately true, and thus we will be justified in believing it. And lastly, as I point out in my book, although many theories not based in scientific evidence (like geocentrism and continuum theory) have been completely overturned, science almost always progresses by the refinement of scientifically established theories—not their replacement. (Although our sun is not the center of the universe, heliocentrism was our first step in understanding the Earth’s true place in the universe.) So even if a theory we accept today may not be completely right, accepting it is a step on the journey toward the complete truth. The example of atomic theoryNow, it’s worth pointing out that most empiricists are not skeptical of all scientific theories; they are only skeptical of the ones that hypothesize the existence of “unobservables.” It’s not like they think that round Earth, heliocentrism, and germ theory are just useful (but untrue) “instruments” for making predictions about how to most efficiently navigate the seas, predict planetary motion, and treat diseases. They admit that the Earth actually is round, that the planets revolve around the sun, and that germs exist and cause disease. These facts and entities can be observed; the theories that suggest they exist are true. It’s only when theories start hypothesizing the existence of unobservables—like electrons, or quantum fields—that can’t be observed directly, that we should start doubting the theories’ truth. And to be fair to van Fraassen, in this published work, he doesn’t really say that we should doubt the truth of such theories. Only that scientific reasoning does not rationally force us to accept them as true. Skepticism, or agnosticism, he argues, is warranted. SUGGESTED READING Science is based in metaphor By Andrew Reynolds But the history of atomic theory throws a monkey wrench into that argument. Atoms used to be unobservable; again, scientists first accepted the theory that they exist because it had such grandiose explanatory power. But then atoms were seen with electron microscopes. They thus moved into the category of the observable. But this didn’t substantially change anything about what scientists were justified in believing; it certainly didn’t change any “atomic skeptics’” minds. It just confirmed what everyone already knew! If the hypothesis that something exists clearly provides the best explanation for what we can observe, then the belief that it exists is what is rational. The fact that the thing itself is not technically observable does not make doubting its existence rational.What’s more, the atoms were seen with an electron microscope. But electrons are themselves unobservable. How can an electron microscope reveal an atom if electrons are not real? This leads us to what is famously known as Hilary Putnam’s “miracle argument.” It’s (not) a miraclePhilosopher Hilary Putnam’s miracle argument is somewhat famous. Basically, he argued that a scientific theory being able to repeatedly make successful predictions—even about unobservables—without being at least approximately true would require a “miracle.” In other words, it would be such an improbable occurrence that it could not rationally be believed—the better explanation for why scientific theories about unobservables make the right predictions is because the unobservable entities and structures they hypothesize exist.Van Fraassen has addressed this argument. Indeed, in his original article, where he references Alison Gopnik’s point about orgasms not being “necessary for procreation” even though the desire for orgasm “drives the creation of progeny,” he is pointing to his own argument about how organisms are not naturally selected by evolution to get true beliefs; to the extent that belief-forming processes are selected for, the ones that are selected are the ones that are useful for survival—not the ones that produce true beliefs. In the same way, van Fraassen argues, scientific theories are accepted, not because they are true, but because they aren’t falsified; they make successful predictions; that’s what makes them “stick around.” So, the fact that they make successful predictions (and thus became accepted) is not a reason to think they are true.This argument is similar to C. S. Lewis’s “argument from reason,” which he used to argue against evolution: “The truth of evolution undercuts our ability to know that it is true.” Lewis’ argument famously failed; Elizabeth Anscombe, by Lewis’s own admission, demolished Lewis in a debate on the topic, and I have explained elsewhere why modified versions of the argument fail as well. In short, it’s because it fails to recognize that a belief-forming process can make an organism more likely to survive because it reliably produces true beliefs. It is therefore not the case that beliefs generated by naturally selected belief-forming processes are automatically false or unjustified.In the same way, the reason a theory “sticks around” could be because it’s not falsified, because it “makes correct predictions.” But the reason it makes correct predictions is most likely because it is true. (In pointing this out, I am echoing the arguments of Musgrave, Lipton, Psillos, and Kitcher, who refuted van Fraassen’s argument and analogy long before his 2024 article.) It would be a huge coincidence that it could do so without being true. And that is the point of Putnam’s miracle argument. Thus, contrary to van Fraassen’s suggestion, the mere fact that a theory’s predictive success is why it “sticks around” or “becomes accepted” in the scientific community is not a reason to be skeptical about its truth. ConclusionLet me close by saying something about the fact that empiricists don’t doubt the truth of all scientific theories, just the ones that hypothesize unobservables. In today’s society, this theory is dangerous to espouse publicly. The nuance between being skeptical about all of science, and just the highly technical theories about unobservables, is guaranteed to be lost to the average reader. And there is so much unjustified skepticism and doubt about the findings of science and experts that a headline like “Science Does Not Describe Reality” could easily fuel the anti-science movement, worsen climate change denial and cause the next pandemic.This is why I believe it was important to still respond to van Fraassen’s article, a full two years after he wrote it. Not only, as I have argued, does it represent a philosophically inaccurate view of how scientific reasoning works and what scientific reasoning can do, but it is a dangerous view to boot. It should thus be rejected.
Dems: Blakeman Should Not Get Matching Funds - Long Island Life & Politics
By Hank Russell The New York State Democratic Committee has accused Nassau County Executive and GOP gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman of illegally trying to obtain matching funds with money he raised outside the state of [...]
Political climate has so soured for GOP, even Mississippi Democrats are hopeful
A Democrat hasn’t won a Senate race in the state since 1982, but a young district attorney has a message for party officials and donors: “If we try, we win these voters.”
Two key Senate health committees face major shake-ups
Senate committees that handle important health care matters are about to see major GOP turnover. Here's what that means.
Senate GOP campaign chief says ‘cash is king’ as Trump team promises millions to keep majority
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Senate Republican campaign chairman said Wednesday that President Donald Trump's team has assured senators “money will not be our problem”
Poll: National conditions ‘dreadful’ for GOP
Democrat David Crowley is only leading Republican Tom Tiffany by three points in the race for Wisconsin governor.
GOP senator blocks resolution that criticized Trump’s taxpayer-funded ads
A GOP senator blocked a resolution on Tuesday that criticized the Trump administration’s recent taxpayer-funded ads promoting President Donald Trump.
Democrats block data centers bill, derailing Senate GOP bid to act on affordability ahead of midterms
Senate Democrats on Wednesday blocked a GOP-led bill to combat rising energy costs driven by the data center boom, thwarting a last-ditch effort by Republicans to show they are taking voter concerns about affordability seriously.
Secret phone-record seizure sparks personal lawsuit from GOP senator
Marsha Blackburn's lawsuit targets Jack Smith personally, arguing the special counsel was never lawfully appointed and violated her constitutional rights.
Can politicians escape their party’s brand?
Discover how voters perceive the ideological distance between political parties and their own senators. The results might surprise you.
House Speaker Johnson stumping for CA GOP congressional candidates
House Speaker Mike Johnson plans to visit California on Wednesday to stump and fundraise for Republican candidates in a state that could determine control of the U.S. House of Representatives during President Trump's final two years in office.
Fewer California Republicans approve of Trump, poll says. That could hurt GOP midterm chances
With gas prices high and an unpopular war dragging on, President Trump’s approval has slipped with California Republicans, a poll shows
Massachusetts Republicans respond to harassment of Cape Cod restaurant
A swath of Massachusetts Republicans are coming together to support a Cape Cod restaurant hit with online threats and harassment, even a hoax 911 call, in retaliation for hosting a GOP fundraiser.
In more than a dozen Minnesota House races, no GOP candidate is running
In 17 Minnesota House races, the Minnesota GOP does not have a candidate on the ballot. That absence is a surprise to some, but it also shows a strategy of shifting resources to more winnable districts.
Augusta business leaders share concerns with GOP officials
Republican leaders convened in Augusta on Tuesday to hear area business concerns in a state tinted by the shadow of contentious midterm elections.
GOP senator appears to confuse Atlanta Hawks & Iowa Hawkeyes in trying to tie Jack Smith to Fani Willis
Baptist Health Central Alabama hit by vendor IT outage; hospitals remain open
Officials confirmed all three Baptist Health hospitals remain open, and emergency rooms continue to accept patients experiencing medical emergencies.
GOP senator airballs perjury claim against Jack Smith over apparent Hawks/Hawkeyes mixup
The Missouri senator’s shot at a gotcha moment against the former special counsel wound up being a very public miss.
E&C package suggests fraud will continue as GOP health care message - Live Updates
Democrats have come after Republicans for Medicaid cuts. Republicans say the cuts were necessary to combat rampant health care fraud.
Democrats accuse DiLorenzo of misreporting wealth and campai...
New Hampshire Democrats plan an ethics complaint alleging GOP House nominee Anthony DiLorenzo omitted assets and may have used corporate loans for his campaign....
Lone GOP senator blocks bipartisan effort to prevent Trump from demolishing Kennedy Center
A bipartisan effort aimed at protecting the Kennedy Center from demolition was blocked on the Senate floor Monday night by a lone Republican senator.
An embarrassing moment for the GOP, a defensive witness and other takeaways from Jack Smith’s hearing
Special counsel Jack Smith, who brought two indictments against now-President Donald Trump in 2023, testified in front of Congress again on Tuesday — this time, to the Senate Judiciary Committee.
‘It’s certainly a challenge for Nebraska families’: GOP senator who supports war in Iran on its economic impact
GOP hopes fade in Georgia and North Carolina as party shifts focus in battle for Senate
The party is spending heavily to defend GOP-heavy Texas, and Trump plans to campaign for the Republican incumbent in Ohio. They're both places Trump won easily in 2024.
Federal court will hear if Wake schools wrongly suspended GOP candidate from job
Scott Lassiter charges Wake suspended him as an assistant principal in 2024 to help his Democratic opponent running for NC Senate.
GOP doubts about North Carolina have Republicans shifting focus
Republicans haven’t abandoned the Southern battlegrounds, though they're shifting greater resources to states they see as more competitive.
GOP senator blocks bill to stop Trump from demolishing Kennedy Center
The bipartisan effort to ban the demolition of presidential memorials was thwarted in the Senate by an objection from Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah).
ODU political experts analyze new Trump messages
NORFOLK, Va. (WAVY) — President Donald Trump told voters several weeks ago in the face of discouraging GOP polling numbers to “pretend I’m on the ballot.” That should be especially easy now that a series of new messages from the White House have begun running, though the administration emphatically denies that they are propaganda. The […]
WATCH LIVE: Jack Smith testifies before Senate Judiciary as GOP targets past Trump probes
Vance unloads on tech titans using foreign visa holders to displace American workers
JD Vance targets H-1B visa abuse, saying large companies lay off thousands of American workers then claim they desperately need foreign labor.