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Months After the FBI Raided His Garage Chemistry Lab, Teen Science Prodigy Graduates from College (Exclusive)
"It was all an unfortunate misunderstanding," says 18-year-old Amalvin Fritz, who is applying to medical school and launching a biological science startup
Drones and lone wolf attacks are key concerns as FBI works to secure 11 World Cup cities
On Thursday, the first whistle blew, ushering in the largest sporting event the US has ever hosted — or secured.
FBI searches office of Ohio group that supports voter registration efforts
Federal agents showed up at the Cleveland office of the Ohio Organizing Collaborative on Thursday and spent hours questioning staff, said Prentiss Haney, a board member of the grassroots organization.
Former FBI agent talks heightened political tensions as The World Cup poses large security challenge
Ex-Reno business owner indicted for allegedly embezzling $7.8 million from high-speed internet project
“Through multiple fraudulent schemes, the defendant clearly exploited trust to line his pockets,” according to an FBI official.
Small Business Tech News This Week From Gusto, Zoom, YouTube And The FBI
This week's AI and tech news: Gusto and Zoom unveil new AI tools, Trump signs an AI order, the FBI warns of cyberthreats, and YouTube expands AI labels.
Radial Entertainment Greenlights 20 New Episodes of 'FBI Files' True Crime Series
Content distributor Radial Entertainment June 4 announced that production is underway on 20 new episodes of the true crime series “The FBI Files.” Bright North Studios, backed by Jeff Zucker-led RedBird IMI, will produce the new episodes. Produced in cooperation with the Federal Bureau of Investigation, “The FBI Files” follows agents as they investigate the … Continue reading "Radial Entertainment Greenlights 20 New Episodes of ‘FBI Files’ True Crime Series"
Trump’s DOJ enlists partisans, conspiracy backers to probe president’s political foes
An FBI agent who wanted to investigate “Italygate,” the 84-year-old wife of a top Justice Department official and a Ken Paxton lawyer are all part of the effort.
James Comey Interview: 'Justice Can't Be a Political Force'
James Comey, the former FBI director recently indicted by Donald Trump's Justice Department, sits for an in-depth interview with Rolling Stone.
Lead prosecutor leaves DOJ's case accusing James Comey of threatening Trump by posting "86 47" in seashells
The federal prosecutor who signed an indictment accusing former FBI Director James Comey of threatening President Trump by posting an image of seashells arranged as "86 47" is no longer on the case.
The FBI Just Issued an Urgent Warning for Anyone Using Microsoft Teams, Outlook, or OneDrive Over a New Phishing Scheme
A fast-spreading cyberattack kit called "Kali365" allows low-skill scammers to hijack a user's account without ever stealing their password.
FBI issues serious warning for Outlook, Teams, OneDrive users
The notice came from the FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center.
FBI warns of Kali365 phishing service targeting Microsoft 365 accounts
The FBI is warning about the Kali365 phishing-as-a-service platform (PhaaS) that is used to hijack Microsoft 365 accounts by abusing OAuth device code authentication to steal session tokens and bypass multi-factor authentication (MFA).
FBI Warns Microsoft Users—New Attack Gains Access To Accounts
If you see one of these emails — check carefully, you may be under attack.
US Treasury rout tests Washington's tolerance for higher borrowing costs
President Donald Trump's room to wage war while maneuvering on economic policy is being tested by a force largely beyond his control: the bond market.
Kash Patel's clothing brand website shut down after reports it was hacked
According to users on X, the website was hijacked by hackers in an attempt to trick visitors into installing malware.
Kash Patel’s personal merch site hacked to trick users into installing malware
FBI Director Kash Patel’s personal merchandise site went offline after a hack apparently tricked visitors into downloading malware.
Kash Patel's Apparel Site Is Trying To Trick Visitors Into Installing Malware
The FBI director's Based Apparel site has been spotted hosting a 'Clickfix' attack, which involves duping users into running a seemingly benign, but malicious command.
15 individuals indicted in alleged health-care fraud scheme in Minnesota
The Justice Department on Thursday announced that 15 people were charged in connection to an alleged $90 million healthcare scheme in Minnesota following a joint investigation with the FBI. “The de…
PHOTOS: Long Beach Century Club 38th Middle School Sports Awards Banquet
PHOTOS: Long Beach Century Club 38th Middle School Sports Awards Banquet
Tybee Island, Marine Science Center to host free Community Day
The City of Tybee Island and the Tybee Island Marine Science Center are teaming up for a special Community Day offering free admission for Tybee Island residents. The event will include interactive exhibits, family activities, raffle prizes and opportunities to learn more about coastal conservation.
‘FBI’s Zeeko Zaki Reveals What Excites Him About OA’s New Assignment
Plus, why OA and Zara could work out.
‘FBI’s Zeeko Zaki Reveals What Excites Him About OA’s New Assignment
Plus, why OA and Zara could work out.
<em>Science </em>magazine investigates FBI’s witch-hunt against Chinese researchers</em>
Science magazine, one of the most prestigious peer-reviewed publications in the world, has published an investigative report titled “Researching While Chinese,” detailing the Department of Justice (DOJ) persecution of Chinese researchers at the University of Michigan and Indiana University.
Infrastructure improvements coming to Sioux Falls VA Health Care System
Projects happening in the second quarter of Fiscal Year 2026 at the Sioux Falls Health Care System include electronic health record infrastructure upgrades and kitchen and cafe renovations.
FBI Director Patel spars with lawmaker who raises reports of his behavior during Hill testimony
FBI Director Kash Patel sparred with a lawmaker briefly during a Tuesday afternoon hearing at the Senate Appropriations Committee when asked about media reports alleging he drinks to excess.
CNN Exclusive: Fired former acting FBI chief says Patel tied job security to purging agents linked to Trump probes
A week before Donald Trump’s inauguration last year, Brian Driscoll, a decorated FBI special agent, received a series of calls that alarmed him. He was being offered the No. 2 job at the FBI and was told that if he didn’t take it, a political appointee would likely get the role. Driscoll didn’t think that was an acceptable alternative, so he hesitantly agreed.
FBI investigating recent deaths and disappearances of multiple US scientists
The scientists supposedly all had access to sensitive government research, and the nature of their work has led to speculation that their cases might all be connected.
Pentagon releases UFO records on new website
President Donald Trump had hinted about the declassification of “very interesting” records last week
FBI director gifts Kentucky bourbon while on official business, The Atlantic reports
The Atlantic released a new report saying FBI Director Kash Patel often gifts engraved bottles of Kentucky bourbon Woodford Reserve.
FBI searches business, other locations associated with Democratic Virginia state senator
Lucas, the president pro tempore of the Virginia Senate, has recently focused her attention on redrawing the state’s congressional maps
FBI searches office of Virginia lawmaker who helped lead redistricting push
The search is connected to a long-running public corruption investigation into her that has roots in the Biden era, a source familiar with the matter tells NBC News.
AP report: FBI searches Virginia Senate leader's office as part of corruption probe
The search at Virginia Sen. L. Louise Lucas’s district office in Portsmouth comes after the Democrat helped lead the state’s recent redistricting effort.
FBI raids Sen. Louise Lucas’ Portsmouth office, cannabis business
Federal agents on Wednesday morning raided the Portsmouth office of state Sen. Louise Lucas, one of Virginia’s most powerful Democratic lawmakers, with multiple news outlets reporting an extensive law enforcement operation that included FBI agents, SWAT teams and court-authorized searches tied to several locations across the commonwealth.Fox News, who was first to report the news, said the FBI executed search warrants at several sites, including Lucas’ legislative office in Portsmouth. Staffers inside the building were ordered outside and were not allowed to re-enter as agents searched the premises. Witnesses saw federal agents carrying boxes out of the building.
Lisa Lucas-Burke reacts to FBI presence at mother’s office and business
PORTSMOUTH, Va. (WAVY)– 10 On Your Side’s Andy Fox spoke with Lisa Lucas-Burke following the FBI presence at her mother’s office and business. Multiple FBI units and law enforceme…
FBI raids business of powerful Virginia state Sen. L. Louise Lucas
The offices of state Sen. L. Louise Lucas, a Democrat, as well as a cannabis dispensary she co-owns were raided. The exact nature and targets of the probe remain unclear.
FBI raids Spanberger ally office as federal corruption probe targets cannabis business
The FBI raided the office of Virginia Democratic state Sen. L. Louise Lucas, a key ally of Gov. Spanberger, in a corruption and marijuana probe.
State Sen. L. Louise Lucas' business raided by FBI
State Sen. L. Louise Lucas' business was seen being raided on Wednesday, according to News 3 reporter Brendan Ponton.
FBI presence at Senator Lucas’ office in Portsmouth
10 On Your Side’s Andy Fox is currently in front of Senator L. Louise Lucas’ office in Portsmouth, where he observed multiple FBI units.
The FBI Is Reportedly Investigating a Leak to an Atlantic Writer
Sarah Fitzpatrick reported on concerns about Kash Patel’s drinking and behavior.
DOJ targets tech-driven health fraud on West Coast
A new team, including the DEA and FBI, is meant to combine and align resources to detect and dismantle healthcare and controlled substance schemes in Arizona, Nevada and California.
NCAA may not be only one investigating Brendan Sorsby gambling. When FBI gets involved
NCAA and power conferences have mechanisms in place in attempt to stop gambling by student-athletes. A look inside protocol and when FBI gets involved
Brewery, Baron’s, 7 Brew and BJ’s all making news this week
Kathy Jumper's regular real estate column highlights moves on both sides of Mobile Bay.
'SNL' cold open skewers 'incompetent' Kash Patel, Aziz Ansari stars
On "SNL," Aziz Ansari debuted an impression of FBI Director Kash Patel, who declared he is the "first Indian person to suck at their job."
FBI seizure of Fulton County election ballots happened quickly after criminal probe opened, new timeline shows
A newly released timeline from the Justice Department reveals the FBI seized 2020 election materials from Georgia just a few weeks after opening a criminal probe, which experts told CNN is an unusually fast pace for a case of its kind.
Minocqua Brewing owner Bangstad says he's launching run for governor
Liberal activist Kirk Bangstad said he is launching a campaign for governor, days after the FBI interviewed him over a Trump assassination remark.
Corruption, politics, and a former FBI agent: Lorain County ‘s government scandal explained
The Lorain County Sheriff's public corruption unit raided multiple county facilities — and a key investigator's identity suggests this is no political stunt.
FBI raids Northwest Indiana homes, restaurants in connection to alleged illegal sports gambling operation
Trump cracks down on women’s retreats, putting ‘new girls’ clubs’ at risk
The administration claims these retreats perpetuate the discrimination they purport to fight
Comey appears in court in Trump threat case that's likely to pose a challenge for Justice Department
ALEXANDRIA, Va. (AP) — Former FBI Director James Comey appeared in court on Wednesday, kick-starting a criminal case against him that legal experts say presents significant hurdles for the prosecution and will likely be a challenge for the Justice Department to win. Comey was indicted in North Carolina on Tuesday on charges of making threats against President Donald Trump related to a photograph he posted on social media last year of seashells arranged in the
Former FBI Director James Comey surrenders to law enforcement at Virginia courthouse
Former FBI Director James Comey has surrendered to law enforcement at federal court in the Eastern District of Virginia.
DOJ indicts ex-FBI chief Comey over seashell post
Comey had posted a photo of seashells spelling out ‘8647’
InvestigateTV+: ‘Junk science’ and harassing debt phone calls
We look at the discredited FBI bullet analysis; a method experts now call “junk science,” and the push to reopen convictions
Fenway Insider: Submit questions for MassLive’s Sean McAdam
What questions do you have for Sean McAdam this week?
Prosecutions of Trump’s foes add to GOP’s headaches in midterms
Charges against former FBI director James B. Comey and others take focus away from the economy and other issues voters care about, many Republicans say.
WATCH: Justice Department holds news briefing on Comey indictment over '86 47' photo
Former FBI Director James Comey was indicted again Tuesday, this time in an investigation over a social media photo of seashells arranged on a beach that officials said constituted a threat against President Donald Trump.
READ: Indictment of James Comey
A federal grand jury on Tuesday indicted former FBI Director James Comey on charges of making a threat against President Donald Trump and transmitting a threat in interstate commerce.
Exclusive: Justice Department indicts former FBI Director James Comey for a second time
Former FBI Director James Comey has been indicted a second time by Trump’s Justice Department, two sources familiar told CNN.
FBI raids Somali business in fraud investigation | FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul
The FBI is conducting raids at Somali-owned businesses across the Twin Cities metro on Tuesday.
Fraud in MN: FBI conducts new raids in Minneapolis on Medicaid providers
The FBI is conducting new raids on Medicaid providers in the Twin Cities on Tuesday amid an ongoing fraud investigations.
Trump’s hypocritical crusade about violent rhetoric — and the country’s emerging split reality
A month ago, President Donald Trump unabashedly celebrated the death of former FBI Director Robert Mueller. “Good, I’m glad he’s dead,” Trump said. “He can no longer hurt innocent people!”
Suspected shooter’s social media posts show shift from video games to political rage
Cole Allen, the suspect charged in the White House Correspondents’ Dinner shooting, compared President Donald Trump to Adolf Hitler in social media posts.
FBI: Is Patel a national security threat?
The FBI director has been accused of excessive drinking
Missing and dead scientists: The conspiracy theory being investigated by the FBI and Congress
The alleged connections between the cases of a dozen people linked to the US government and military have led to two official investigations promoted by Trump
How a Fringe Conspiracy Theory About Missing Scientists Got the FBI’s Attention
Speculation over disappearances and deaths grew for months online; Trump vows ‘we’re going to look at it.’
iOS 26.4.2: Apple Emergency iPhone Update Fixes Deleted Notification Bug
Apple has released a new iPhone update — that has taken many by surprise — to address a vulnerability that was recently exploited by the FBI.
iOS 26.4.2: Apple Fixes iPhone Flaw Used By FBI To Read Deleted Messages
Apple has released a new iPhone update — that has taken many by surprise — to address a vulnerability that was recently exploited by the FBI.
Apple Patches iOS Flaw That Stored Deleted Signal Notifications in FBI Forensic Case
Apple fixes CVE-2026-28950 in iOS 26.4.2 after deleted notifications were retained, mitigating forensic data exposure.
Trump administration settles lawsuit with ex-Trump adviser Carter Page
The Justice Department has reached a settlement in a lawsuit brought by former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page, who sued the DOJ and FBI for over flawed government surveillance he faced due to his Russian contacts in 2016, according to a filing with the Supreme Court Wednesday.
Apple rolls out iOS 26.4.2 to fix a flaw that allowed the FBI to access push notifications
The latest iOS update patches a security flaw that made deleted push notification data accessible on some iPhones and iPads.
iOS 26.4.2 Patches Flaw That Let FBI Extract Deleted Signal Messages
The iOS 26.4.2, iPadOS 26.4.2, iOS 18.7.8, and iPadOS 18.7.8 updates that Apple released today address a security vulnerability that the FBI recently used to extract Signal message previews from an iPhone even after the app was deleted. A flaw with notification services allowed notifications that were supposed to be deleted to be retained on an iPhone or iPad. Apple says it fixed the logging issue with improved data redaction.
Death of ‘genius’ Alabama woman linked to investigation of missing, dead scientists
The FBI confirmed Tuesday it is “spearheading the effort to look for connections into the missing and deceased scientists."
With acting AG at his side, FBI Director Patel publicly addresses Atlantic allegations
FBI Director Kash Patel, standing at a podium beside his boss Tuesday, publicly addressed recent allegations that he has drank to excess, interfering with his duties.
FBI probes missing or dead scientists, including four from the L.A. area
President Trump told reporters last week that he had been briefed on the missing and dead scientists, which he described as “pretty serious stuff.”
FBI investigating possible links between deaths and disappearances of at least 10 scientists
The law enforcement agency’s announcement came after President Donald Trump highlighted the recent deaths of several scientists and government workers who may have had access to sensitive information
House Oversight to investigate missing or dead US nuclear scientists
Comer said the panel plans to seek information and briefings from the Pentagon, FBI, Department of Energy and NASA.
Opinion | When politics becomes performance: From ‘Jesus-Trump’ to the Pale Blue Dot
When a political figure begins to frame himself as a kind of national redeemer, the boundaries of democratic discourse begin to shift, Dingman Yu writes.
Apple Changes iPhone After 15 Years—Do You Stop Texting Now?
Do you really stop sending texts as Apple upgrades iPhone following FBI warning?
FBI And NSA Warnings Ignored—No Fix For Millions Of Phones
Check your phone now — before it’s too late.
Kash Patel’s Erratic Behavior Could Cost Him His Job
The FBI director has alarmed colleagues with episodes of excessive drinking and unexplained absences.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
A New Case Exposed the Clever Workaround the FBI Uses to Read 'Secure' Messages on iPhones
Law enforcement used Apple's push notifications database to gather messages sent through Signal, and convict defendants for terrorism activities.
FBI: Health care was top target for ransomware, other cyberthreats in 2025
Health care and public health was the top sector targeted for cyberthreats in 2025, according to the FBI’s latest annual report on internet crimes. There were 460 ransomware attacks and 182 data breaches, totaling 642 cyber events. Financial services was the next highest sector at 447 total events.
FBI used iPhone notification data to retrieve deleted Signal messages
The FBI was able to recover deleted Signal messages from an iPhone by extracting data stored in the device’s notification database.
How the FBI Extracted Deleted Signal Messages From a Defendant's iPhone
The FBI was able to pull Signal messages from a defendant's iPhone—even though that user had deleted the app. Here's how they did it.
FBI Extracts Suspect’s Deleted Signal Messages Saved in iPhone Notification Database
The case was the first time authorities charged people for alleged “Antifa” activities after President Trump designated the umbrella term a terrorist organization.
‘Stop Texting’—Apple Changes iPhone After 15 Years
The FBI warned smartphone users to stop sending texts — here's what happens now.
Iran-linked hackers have disrupted multiple US industrial sites
Iran-linked hackers have successfully targeted and caused disruptions at multiple US oil and gas and water sites in recent weeks, according to a federal advisory released Tuesday and three sources familiar with the investigation.
FBI warns against foreign mobile apps like CapCut in new PSA
A new public service announcement from the FBI is warning Americans about apps based in China.
The year in review: Influential people who have died in 2026
As director of the FBI, Robert S. Mueller III transformed the agency into a terrorism-fighting force after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. But Mueller, who died in March, is perhaps
FBI Warns iPhone And Android Users—Do Not Install These Apps
Check your smartphone now — these apps are dangerous and should be deleted.
FBI warns millions of iPhone and Android users: These apps could steal your data
Some apps can access data throughout your entire device, the FBI warns.
‘Stop Texting’—Apple Changes iPhone After 15 Years
The FBI warned smartphone users to stop sending texts — here's what happens now.
Android and iPhone users warned by FBI that certain apps are a security risk
The FBI alerted iOS and Android users what to watch for and what to do if they install an app considered to be a security risk.
FBI Warns iPhone And Android Users—Do Not Install These Apps
Check your smartphone now — these apps are dangerous and should be deleted.
FBI Warns iPhone And Android Users—Do Not Install These Apps
Check your smartphone now — these apps are dangerous and should be deleted.