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Meta Went Down Twice in 11 Days. The Outages Exposed a Risk Many Businesses Ignore
Two unannounced outages took down Meta's ad tools this June with no warning and no timeline. The brands that barely noticed already knew the answer to a question most never bother to ask.
Air pollution may cause childhood obesity by disrupting impulse control, study finds
Babies exposed to higher levels of neurotoxin more likely to have difficulty controlling impulses later, research shows
NATO's eastern flank prepares to fend off Russia
Reporters traveled to three exposed stretches of Europe's eastern frontier and found varied strategies and uneven progress to deter Russia.
Watch Ebola Crisis Exposes Congo's Fragile Health System
Daniele Nyirandutiye, Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress, discusses how the Ebola outbreak in Congo exposed critical weaknesses in healthcare and why long-term investment is essential.
Health officials confirm measles case in Larimer County teenager
Officials say the teenager, who had not received the MMR vaccine, was likely exposed during recent travel abroad.
Long Reads for the Long Weekend
(Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a newsletter on the entertainment industry and business strategy. I write a weekly Streaming Ratings Report and a bi-weekly strategy column, along with occasional deep dives into other topics, like today’s article. Please subscribe.) Happy Fourth of July weekend! As has been a tradition of mine going back to the beginning of the EntStrategyGuy website, I’m sharing my favorite long reads of the last year, like I did in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2024, and 2025. Let’s dive right in! Subscribe “Different Prices for the Same Ride: How Uber and Lyft Use AI to Get More Money Out of You“ by Derek Kravitz in Consumer Reports I don’t think surveillance pricing, like the kind described in this brilliant Consumer Reports article, is long for the world—it’s toxically unpopular—but we’ll see if either party takes on this issue. If I ran a political party focused on affordability, I would focus on a few pro-consumer and pro-market policies: Banning non-compete agreements. Ending surveillance pricing Eliminating junk fees (read more here...) Ensuring “right to repair” for consumer (and military!) products Capping excessive app store fees Stopping digital/algorithmic price-fixing tools. Preventing automatic subscription price increases. And more. If you want to fight inflation, there are a lot of great ways to do it quickly. Speaking of higher prices... “Secret Documents Show Pepsi and Walmart Colluded to Raise Food Prices Across the Economy“ by Matt Stoller in BIG Again, I think a political party should focus on lowering prices for consumers. And deals like this—Walmart making a deal/forcing Pepsi to offer the lowest prices at its stores and nowhere else—hypothetically lower prices at Walmart...but raise them everywhere else. “15 DUIs, still driving: California’s failure to take repeat drunk drivers off the road“ by Robert Lewis and Lauren Hepler in CalMatters CalMatters does terrific reporting in California, something the Golden State desperately needs more of, and this article is a great example of that. “PugLips: The next insanely popular thing you’ve never heard of…” by Simon Carless in Game Discover Co I thought that this parody article (and yes, it’s a parody, but I was definitely unsure at first) was hilarious and totally nailed how much tech/business journalism feels these days. Actually, three of my favorite articles this year were on hype in the video game industry, including Georg Zoller’s “The Video Game Industries Very Dark Night”—which I linked to recently and wrote a follow-up here—and Owen Mahoney’s “Derek Zoolander, Videogame Exec”. In particular, I like Mahoney’s focus on user experience as a guide to what trends will actually grab hold of customers. “The Matrix Lies“ by Evan Shapiro in Media War & Peace Evan Shapiro’s first person account of his experience with AI was hilarious. I think LLMs capabilities have significantly grown from last summer, and yet...my editor/researcher just had an abysmal experience using an LLM to do a quite basic task (which our LLM normally does each week) and the LLM made a mistake on every single data entry...along with seven different mistakes affecting twelve of the twenty or so entries, including mistakes that are explicitly spelled out in the prompt. That’s a brutal failure rate. Again, if you use AI/LLM for data collection, you need to take a lot of extra steps to verify and check the data. “Ghosts in the Balcony: A Cross-Country Trip to 58 Theaters Fighting to Survive“ by Matthew Frank in The Ankler I thought Matthew Frank’s pitch to head across America to visit theaters sounded insane aggressive at the time—at least it felt that way to someone a decade older than him; man, to be in your twenties again, am I right?—but I knew the result would be great. And it was, a terrific feature by a great young writer. Also, I loved Matthew’s recent article on who’s getting the precious few entry level jobs in Hollywood. (Hint: nepotism.) “Disney erased FiveThirtyEight“ and “Did Las Vegas get too greedy?” by Nate Silver in Silver Bulletin I love media history and analysis, and there’s no one better to get the history of FiveThirtyEight than from Nate Silver, who wrote about his personal experience in one of my favorite pieces from this year. I also loved Nate’s breakdown of what’s causing Vegas’ woes, but I’ll offer one criticism, summarized as “Might I suggest antitrust?” Many centrists/center-right/libertarian thinkers (Nate is self-described as the latter) often don’t consider consolidation or antitrust as factors in policy issues like housing, America’s military readiness, or, in this case, Las Vegas. Even if libertarians want to debunk antitrust/consolidation concerns, I’d love to read that debunking. In this case, Vegas is incredibly consolidated (though it also has been for a long time) and I’d have loved to read Nate at least contending with this factor, since he addresses almost every other potential factor for Vegas’ decline. “Why Microsoft’s Carbon Removal Pullback Is Such a Big Deal“ by Robinson Meyer in Heatmap News I’m a big supporter of carbon removal efforts, but this nascent industry faces a lot of headwinds, including this big move most recently. I think it’s clear that solar panels and batteries should be able to get the world to its carbon footprint goals, but effective carbon renewal remains necessary to prevent the worst impacts of global warming. “AI is killing the cheap smartphone“ by David Oks LLMs and AI will impact the world in ways we’re not ready for, and already, third world countries are seeing the prices of cheap cellphones skyrocket due to the cost of chips skyrocketing. This article by David Oks is a terrific breakdown. “100 Days of Madness: Netflix, Paramount, Warner and the Future of Hollywood“ by Wade Major at Hollywood Heretic Wade Major dove deep into Hollywood/streaming’s financials in this must read piece. Not that I agree with everything in this article (read my take on Warner Bros./Paramount here) but the analysis is top notch. I think many people discount how quality thinking, regardless of the argument/conclusion, will make you a better thinker. “Erased by the UFC: Frank Shamrock, The MMA GOAT of the 20th Century“ by Nate Wilcox in The MMA Draw Newsletter Growing up playing the UFC fighting game on the Dreamcast, Frank Shamrock was my favorite MMA fighter, and this history/tribute to him was great. Other Fun Reads “The Hardest Part Of History To Tell Is How It Felt“ by Craig Fehrman at Defector “Unmasking the Sea Star Killer“ by Craig Welch at bioGraphic “What Could Save the Industry? Fin-Syn“ by Richard Rushfield in The Ankler Alex Rollins Berg in Underexposed on movie bumpers, pillow shots, Disney trash cinema, cult films, and Casablanca. David H. Montgomery in YouGov’s The Surveyor on punctuation marks, condiments, dinosaurs, and comic strips and kids media. “How Medium finally pivoted its way to profitability“ and “Why the best journalists on YouTube are all former Vox employees“ by Simon Owens in Simon Owens’s Media Newsletter “It’s Not Just You, Netflix Shows Have Gotten Slightly Shorter: Here’s What the Data Says“ by Kasey Moore at What’s on Netflix “Numlock Awards: How Diane Warren became the biggest loser in Oscar history“ by Nathaniel Rakich and “Numlock Awards: The Oscar Bait era is over. The Oscar Chum era is here.” by Walt Hickey & Michael Domanico at Numlock Awards
India investigating Tata data leak that exposed Apple iPhone secrets
India is investigating a data breach at Tata Electronics that exposed documents linked to Apple's unreleased iPhone 18 Pro, the country's IT secretary said on Thursday in the government's first public comments on the incident.
Would Hunters Take A Lyme Disease Vaccine? We Asked
By Bram Sable-Smith and KFF Health News HealthDay ReportersWEDNESDAY, July 1, 2026 (HealthDay News) — It’s tick season, possibly the worst in a decade. More and more Americans are being exposed to these parasites as climate change expands the range where they can survive. That means more people are also exposed to the bevy of health conditions they can ...
DR Congo health workers battle Ebola despite scant protection
In Ituri, DR Congo's Ebola epicenter, overwhelmed clinics and a lack of protective gear leave health workers exposed as the outbreak spreads beyond control.
Second Measles Case of 2026 Confirmed by Wyoming Department of Health
The Wyoming Department of Health (WDH) has confirmed a case of measles in an unvaccinated adult from Teton County. Measles is a highly contagious infection that can cause severe illness. The public may have been exposed to measles at the following locations and times: Cafe Court Pizzeria and Ranch House Restaurant, Colter Bay Village, Grand […]
Common pesticide linked to more than double the risk of Parkinson’s disease
Scientists at UCLA have linked long-term exposure to the pesticide chlorpyrifos with a sharply increased risk of Parkinson’s disease. People exposed to the chemical near their homes were more than twice as likely to develop the condition. Laboratory studies showed that chlorpyrifos damages dopamine neurons and interferes with the brain’s ability to remove toxic protein buildup.
Four bad habits tournament golf exposed within my game
What one writer learned from his second tournament round of the year.
Trump’s Ultimate White House Health Cover-Up Is Exposed: Author
The president’s famous “transparency” has been questioned.
Measles exposure reported at Hollywood Burbank Airport, county health officials say
Los Angeles County health officials announced Wednesday they are investigating a confirmed case of measles involving a traveler who may have exposed people to the highly contagious disease at Hollywood Burbank Airport and elsewhere in the county.
A federal judge orders an ICE detainee with mental illness released, finding her six-month detention unconstitutional
The ruling followed a hearing that exposed a sharp divide over how a Vermont prison's mental health providers, a corrections officer and outside clinicians assessed the woman’s mental illness, a dispute the judge did not resolve.
Meta AI training data leak exposed employee activity across company
Meta's AI Model Capability Initiative faces scrutiny after a data leak exposes internal security risks, sparking employee concerns.
Students are Ditching Computer Science as AI Job Fears Grow
Goldman data and a weak entry-level market push students out of AI-exposed college majors toward safer fields.
Students are Ditching Computer Science as AI Job Fears Grow
Goldman data and a weak entry-level market push students out of AI-exposed college majors toward safer fields.
This DNA repair gene went rogue and exposed a cancer weakness
Scientists have discovered that a gene normally considered a DNA-protecting "good guy" can become dangerous when cells make too much of it. The gene, EXO1, acts like molecular scissors that help repair DNA, but when overproduced it starts cutting DNA it shouldn't, creating damage linked to cancer.
Measles-infected traveler may have exposed passengers at LAX and nearby hotel, health officials warn
A measles-infected traveler may have exposed passengers at LAX and a nearby Hilton hotel on June 11, marking the sixth case in LA County this year.
'Everyone on Earth is exposed': Scientists map microplastics deep inside living tissue
It does show that researchers are developing better tools to study exposure.
What are the health implications of the Everglades wildfires, and will World Cup spectators and players be affected?
Dr. Roberto Lucchini works with first responders exposed to carcinogens in the World Trade Center attacks. He discusses how airborne toxins from South Florida fires could impact residents, visitors.
Raccoon in Anne Arundel County tests positive for rabies; health officials seek anyone exposed
The Anne Arundel County Department of Health is looking for anyone who may have come in contact with a raccoon on or near McGill Court and Milburn Circle in Pasadena after the animal tested positive for rabies.
RFK Jr. overrules experts to keep hantavirus cruise ship passenger in quarantine
U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has refused to release a cruise ship passenger exposed to hantavirus from a quarantine facility in Nebraska
RFK Jr. overrules experts to keep hantavirus cruise ship passenger in quarantine
U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has refused to release a cruise ship passenger exposed to hantavirus from a quarantine facility in Nebraska.
RFK Jr. orders passenger from hantavirus-stricken cruise to remain in quarantine in Nebraska, despite CDC recommendation
A woman who was exposed to hantavirus on the MV Hondius cruise has been ordered by US Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to stay in federal quarantine, despite being cleared to return home to Florida by a federal health expert.
Anguished Parents. Doctors In Tears. Utah's Long Measles Outbreak Takes A Toll.
By Amy Maxmen and KFF Health News HealthDay ReportersTHURSDAY, June 11, 2026 (HealthDay News) — Ben Dowse hadn’t expected to treat measles when he became a doctor, but there he was, examining a newborn exposed to the virus in the womb. The infected mother had given birth just hours earlier. The ...
Spotify's opioid podcast crackdown removes 57,000 episodes globally
After a Business Insider investigation exposed opioid-promoting podcasts on Spotify, a US senator found the company removed more than 57,000 episodes.
Chesterfield-based entertainment agency forms music education nonprofit
“(It’s) basically a proof of concept ... what we’re doing, who we want to help,” Harry said. “We’re going to lean preferably to nonprofit organizations in this space that are focused on kids. Getting them exposed to music at an early age.”
A classic brain test exposed AI's biggest weakness
Researchers gave top AI models a classic attention test used in psychology and found a major flaw. While the models could correctly name colors in short lists, their performance deteriorated sharply as the task became longer and more complex. Some leading systems fell from over 90% accuracy to nearly complete failure.
Why health data sharing is leaving patients exposed
The rapid growth of health tech vendors and data sharing platforms is creating security gaps.
Ferrari Drops Massive Two-Tenths Aero Upgrade For Barcelona Survival
Just hours after Lewis Hamilton brutally exposed Ferrari’s massive 10-month engine deficit, Maranello is aggressively firing back with the only ammunition they currently have: a massive, season-defining aerodynamic overhaul. If the Scuderia cannot match the raw horsepower of Red Bull…
Global airlines slash 2026 profit forecast on fuel shock from Iran war
The global airline industry nearly halved its 2026 profit forecast on Sunday, citing conflict in the Middle East that has driven up fuel costs, disrupted key air corridors and exposed the fragility of a sector operating on thin margins.
'It’s not acceptable': Lejeune toxic water victims rally outside Capitol
People exposed to toxic water at North Carolina’s Camp Lejeune decades ago voiced pent-up frustration outside the U.S. Capitol Thursday.
An Uncertain Path for Americans Exposed to Ebola
Despite long-established procedures for bringing Americans home for monitoring and treatment, the Trump administration has not said that it will allow those at risk of Ebola back into the country.
Oregonian exposed to hantavirus returns home, goes into quarantine
An Oregonian is home and in quarantine following exposure to a deadly hantavirus outbreak on a cruise ship.
Health officials oppose US plan to treat Ebola-exposed Americans overseas
Healthcare officials in the U.S., including former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention officials, on Monday warned Congress against adopting a proposed policy to treat Americans exposed to Ebola in Kenya or countries in the European Union.
Congo Reopens Main Airport in Ebola Epicenter as Officials Brace for Long Outbreak
Congo reopened the main airport in the eastern province hardest hit by Ebola, after health officials reported tentative signs the outbreak may be slowing despite a continuing struggle to trace exposed contacts and investigate suspected cases.
Congo’s Ebola Footprint Widens as Officials Race to Gauge Epidemic’s True Scale
Congo’s Ebola outbreak is being detected across a widening swath of the country’s conflict-hit east as health authorities struggle to trace exposed contacts and determine the true scale of the epidemic.
Occupational Health and Safety Practices Among Primary Healthcare Workers in Bangladesh: A Cross-Sectional Study
Background Healthcare workers (HCWs) in low- and middle-income countries are exposed to substantial occupational risks; however, evidence regarding comprehensive occupational health and safet...
Billionaire Mark Cuban Asks Why Insurance Companies Pay $2,500 for an MRI When ‘a Center Down the Street’ Only Charges $350
Mark Cuban questioned why insurers pay $2,500 for MRIs priced at $350 elsewhere. The debate exposed huge gaps in health care pricing.
Three people exposed to rabid bat in Snohomish County
In Snohomish County, six bats have tested positive over the last decade, but this week's bat is the second to test positive for rabies in Washington this year.
3 receiving preventive treatment after exposure to rabid bat in Snohomish County home
Three Snohomish County residents are receiving preventive treatment for rabies after being exposed to a bat that tested positive for the virus, county health of
Kenyan court temporarily blocks U.S. plan for Ebola quarantine facility
The U.S. had set up the facility in Kenya to take in Americans exposed to Ebola, with a plan to send patients who develop symptoms to European countries for care.
How CWS Supports Mental Health for Communities in Crisis: Healing Hidden Wounds
People around the world experiencing conflict, crisis and trauma need mental health support to prevent severe, lifelong effects. CWS’s locally led, trauma-informed mental health programs help people affected by crisis cope, recover and begin to rebuild their lives. Mental health is as essential to well-being as physical health. For people around the world who have been exposed to displacement, disaster, … Read More
Microsoft Threatens Researcher Over Bug Reports, Triggers Cybersecurity Uproar
Microsoft says it will coordinate 'as needed with law enforcement' after a disgruntled researcher exposed Windows bugs without proper coordination.
Plan for Ebola facility in Kenya draws fierce criticism – from both the CDC and Kenyan doctors
The plan to launch this week a health facility in Kenya for Americans who may have been exposed to the Ebola virus has received widespread criticism – from both Kenyan doctors and US officials working at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
Critical Gogs RCE Vulnerability Lets Any Authenticated User Execute Arbitrary Code
Gogs 9.4 CVSS flaw exploits git rebase injection on 1,141 exposed instances, enabling remote code execution.
U.S. plans to send Americans exposed to Ebola to facility in Kenya
The decision is a departure from previous outbreaks, where Americans who needed care were brought back to the United States.
U.S. to send Americans exposed to Ebola to makeshift hospital in Kenya
Trump officials have instructed the U.S. military to stand up a quarantine facility within a week, according to two people familiar with the matter.
US to set up quarantine facility in Kenya for Americans exposed to Ebola, WSJ reports
The Trump administration is expected to deploy U.S. public health officers to Kenya to staff a potential quarantine facility there amid the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday.
PSA: The Steam Controller’s magnetic charger can be a fire hazard
Keep the charging puck’s exposed pins far away from anything metal.
Scientists uncover cancer-causing chemicals hidden in everyday foods
Scientists have identified potentially cancer-causing chemicals hiding in many everyday foods, especially those exposed to high heat cooking methods like grilling, roasting, smoking, and frying. The compounds, known as PAHs, can form during cooking or enter foods through contamination, raising concerns about long-term health risks.
Google accidentally exposed details of unfixed Chromium flaw
Google has accidentally leaked details about an unfixed issue in Chromium that keeps JavaScript running in the background even when the browser is closed, allowing remote code execution on the device.
Patients warned of possible exposure at dental clinic in Philadelphia's Rittenhouse
Patients at a dental clinic in Philadelphia's Rittenhouse section may have been exposed to hepatitis C, hepatitis B, and HIV, according to the Philadelphia Health Department
American passenger on hantavirus-hit cruise feels ‘blindsided’ and ‘misled’ by new quarantine orders
An American passenger who was exposed to the Andes strain of hantavirus on the cruise ship HV Hondius said he feels “blindsided” and “misled” by new orders that require staying at the National Quarantine Center in Nebraska under federal supervision.
A critical window to stop hantavirus is opening. Not all countries are managing exposed travelers the same way
The hantavirus-stricken cruise ship MV Hondius arrived at its last stop Monday. Now, the waiting begins.
How to Reduce Phishing Exposure Before It Turns into Business Disruption
Phishing links exposed in 40 seconds across U.S. sectors, helping SOCs cut MTTR by 21 minutes and triage 94% faster.
Texas is opening up a detransition clinic
Americans exposed to Ebola outbreak, Bill Cassidy's primary defeat, and more health news from Morning Rounds
What's next for Pistons? Detroit's questions around Cade Cunningham include pressing one about Jalen Duren
The Pistons were the No. 1 seed in the East and had a wonderful regular season, but their flaws were exposed in the playoffs
At least 6 Americans in Congo were exposed to Ebola virus, sources say
Omaha Steaks, Nerf basketball and Hazmat suits: Former contagion patients describe life in quarantine amid Hantavirus
Former patients share what it’s like to be stuck inside specialized biocontainment facilities like the ones now occupied by passengers exposed to the hantavirus outbreak.
AI camera blunder turns new Xperia 1 VIII into a meme: Sony roasted in viral social media trend
Sony faces social media backlash and mockery over the Xperia 1 VIII’s AI Camera Assistant. Users on X are roasting the company by sharing overexposed "before and after" memes after the Japanese giant posted promotional images that appeared lower in quality than the originals. Sony has since clarified that the AI suggests "creative looks" rather than automatic edits.
Chartbook 449: Voldemort on Threadneedle street. The Bank of England and the "haunted house" of English politics.
Imagine the scene: In some Harry Potter version of 21st-century London, a group of deathless UK Treasury officials gathered from across the last century huddle over warm pints and glasses of Chardonnay. Around the table there are officials from the 1920s, the 1930s, the 1970s, 2022 and today. Inevitably, in May 2026, the subject of conversation is the disintegration of the current Labour government. Despite its huge majority in parliament, it has been reduced to tatters by catastrophic local election result. These exposed the fact that rather than having a government with a clear popular majority, the UK is like most other modern societies divided into 5 segments each of which commands between 26 and 16 percent of the vote. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the leadership at Nos 10 and 11 Downing Street - where the Prime Minister and the Chancellor (Treasury Secretary) work - seem paralyzed. They are caught between mounting discontent over unfairness and the cost of living, and tough fiscal strictures that push them into making unpopular spending decisions. In the London pub, the Treasury officials from across the ages, can barely hide their satisfaction at the latest display of democratic politics caught in the vice-grip of financial logic. “Remember the mur d’argent and the banker’s ramp?” “Just like yesterday!” There are smirks around the table. Then the representative of 2026 pipes up: “One thing you have to say about the current lot (referring to the latest hapless Labour government), you don’t have to teach them about the bond market!” There is a murmur of ascent from the Treasury Mandarins. The trauma of the fiscal crisis of September-October 2022 sits deep. Back then, in the final stages of Tory decay, a ‘mini budget’ that challenged fiscal orthodoxy led to a brief but fierce panic in one of the oldest government bond markets in the world (aka gilt market). Now all you have to do is to mention the “bond market” to hush debate. [ Paul Mason@paulmasonnews In the name of public service, and as ex-economics editor of BBC Newsnight, I offer to do a zoom call, tonight, with any Labour MP who wants to understand why bond markets do not "fall into line" with governments. 1/ 3:57 PM · May 12, 2026 · 466K Views 224 Replies · 674 Reposts · 3.93K Likes ](https://x.com/paulmasonnews/status/2054229532404519082?s=20) “And the funny thing is”, the young man in the huddle continues, “they don’t even want to talk about … ”. There is a sudden hush. Significant looks are exchanged around the table. About? One of the senior figures puts down his glass with a decisive “clink”. He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named has entered their thoughts. Meanwhile, a few miles away in a grubby pub in Bloomsbury, two conspirators from the camp of Critical Macrofinance huddle over cans of low-alcohol IPA. They look at each other and blurt out loud: “The Bank!” “Everyone in the bloody Labour party is talking about the bond market. But why aren’t they even mentioning … the Bank of England!?” “Why is no one talking about Voldemort?” In Paul Mason’s blogpost, after much chest-thumping about basic fiscal logic, the basic point about the Bank of England is buried in the fine print at #3 in his list of suggestions as to what a radical Labour government might actually be able to do! [ Conflict & Democracy Down with the bond market! Down with gravity! It may seem unfair to focus on Labour MP Paula Barker for her off-the-cuff assertion that the bond market would have to “fall in line” with Andy Burnham, should he replace Keir Starmer as prime minister. But Burnham himself told the New Statesman that Labour had to “get beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond markets… Read more 2 days ago · 100 likes · 3 comments · Paul Mason ](https://htsf.substack.com/p/down-with-the-bond-market-down-with?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web) Back in Bloomsbury they shake their heads and ask: “Didn’t we learn anything from the Eurozone crisis?” Meanwhile, as if summoned to the conversation by some higher force, the “pink pages” announce: “The days of ultra-cheap government borrowing have come to an end” and Martin “Whizzard” Wolf publishes the graph of the season Look at the UK in 2026, perilously positioned on the upper edge of the pack. No wonder no one in London needs any lessons about the “bond market”. But, look again. Imagine how they feel in Rome. What is London’s nightmare in 2026? The nightmare is that you end up like Italy in the early 2010s during the Eurozone crisis. Once comfortably situated in the middle of the pack, watching with horror as your ten-year yields explode to 7 percent and “spreads” become a national nightmare. One of the largest economies in Europe, a founding member of the euro, stigmatized. But the message of the Italian experience is ambiguous. After all, the stigma didn’t last. In 2026, Italy borrows at rates lower not only than the UK but the US. The US, which, as everyone knows, enjoys the “exorbitant privilege” of being the issuer of reserve, safe asets. What kind of magic is this? How did Italy, in the space of fifteen years, go from being good, to bad and back again? Which brings us back to our dissident friends in their Bloombury boozer and their memories of the Eurozone crisis. Italy never was Britain - with its ongoing fiscal deficits. Without interest payments, on primary balance, from 2000 to 2020 Italy ran a tight fiscal ship. Even in 2008 it barely went into deficit and when it was being put on the rack in the early 20210s its primary surplus matched that of austere Germany. So, what happened? How did it end up stigmatized? Of course Italian politics didn’t help. Berlusconi was at the helm and he had legal issues. But amongst friends in the Bloomsbury pub, Berlusconi is a sideshow, the name we whisper to each other is “Trichet”. From 2004 to 2011 the ECB was headed by Jean-Claude Trichet, ex of the French Treasury, more German than the Germans. After 2009 as the news of the Greek fiscal disaster broke, the European bond markets wento into panic mode and Trichet began a brutal game of cat and mouse. Between 2009 and 2011, Trichet intervened in the bond market to help, only when he thought he had compliance with austerity. When he thought they were uncooperative, he withdrew. In the summer of 2011, he even made direct suggestions to his Italian counterparts in Rome, as to how Italy should be governed. It was this cat and mouse game that drove the bond markets crazy and exposed Italy to a violent squeeze. When Mario Draghi took over the ECB at the end of 2011 and declared “whatever it takes”, the pressure on Italy, gradually eased. It is that starring role that has made Draghi into the towering figure in European politics that he remains today. So now you see why voices in London hush when it comes to the Bank of England. “The bond market” isn’t an irresistible objective force like the weather or an avalanche. It can appear like that. But that depends on the way it is being handled, or not handled by the central bank. Which is why the silence about the Bank of England in London right now is so significant. If you think this all sounds a bit fishy, coming from a left-liberal Keynesian like myself, well, let me introduce you to Robin Brooks, who, to put it mildly, plays on a different quidditch team to me. Here, from the position of a fiscal hawk is Robin’s celebratory account of the Bank of England’s role since 2022; In October 2022, at the height of the bond market blow-up in the UK, something incredible happened. Governor Andrew Bailey told British pension funds the Bank of England would end its support program for the country’s fragile gilt market, drawing a line under how much help the central bank was willing to give to exposed pension funds and - implicitly - the government. By the end of that week, Kwasi Kwarteng - the finance minister - had resigned. Prime Minister Liz Truss would soon follow. This episode is so incredible because it contrasts with what happened in the Euro zone earlier that year. Bond markets in Spain and Italy were under pressure amid high inflation and rising interest rates. In the middle of this, Mario Draghi - Italy’s Prime Minister - resigned, compounding pressure on bond markets of high-debt countries on the Euro periphery. Unlike the Bank of England, the ECB caved. It bought Italian and Spanish government bonds in an effort to cap yields and introduced a new tool that signaled to markets it might do such caps more frequently going forward. Faced with pressure on bond markets, the ECB capitulated to political pressure from high-debt countries like Italy and Spain. The Bank of England stood its ground and toppled the Truss government. This kind of thing has long-lasting consequences. It means markets price a higher probability of yield caps in the Euro zone, which keeps Italian and Spanish yields artificially low, while markets feel free to push up UK yields without fear of central bank intervention. As I flagged in yesterday’s post, this means you really can’t compare UK yields to those of other high-debt countries. The UK looks worse, but only because its central bank isn’t interfering with markets. There’s more to this than just that 2022 episode. The Bank of England has also been much more aggressive in its quantitative tightening (QT) than other central banks. If one motivation for quantitative easing (QE) is to lower bond yields - especially longer-dated ones - then it stands to reason QT pushes yields up. The left chart above shows a four-quarter moving average of UK government debt issuance (black line) in percent of GDP and which sectors absorb this issuance, including the Bank of England (blue bars). The right chart above compares the Bank of England’s accumulation or run-off of government bonds (blue line) with that of other central banks, where this blue line is the same as the blue bars in the left chart. The Bank of England was quicker and more aggressive than other central banks in downsizing its bond holdings, so UK yields will have risen more than elsewhere also for this reason, not just because of Governor Andrew Bailey’s remarks in October 2022. Back in October 2025, after a conversation in New York with friends in British politics, my sense of dysphoria was such that I raised the issue of the Bank of England openly in the FT Since 2008, the UK has slid into a deep economic and political predicament. Growth has stagnated to a degree far worse even than in the 1970s. The Tory leadership’s wager on the Brexit referendum spectacularly backfired, leaving the UK isolated from Europe and at the mercy of its special relationship with the US, many of whose political class regard the UK as a basket case. After years of austerity, the Labour party lurched to the left and then back to the centre. The Tory party has been eclipsed by the populist nationalism of Reform. Any British government should be worrying first and foremost about how to restart growth. Instead, Keir Starmer is beset by shades of the gilt market panic triggered by the Liz Truss government in 2022. The debt level is higher than in recent years, but there is no cause for panic. UK debt is at far from critical levels and of long duration. Whether you want to “take back control” or launch progressive economic policy, a democracy dogged by fear of bond market vigilantes is unhealthy. In a country that is a monetary sovereign, this climate points to one thing: a disconnect between the government and the central bank. Since 1997, the independence of the Bank of England has become a sacred cow. But independence is what you make of it. And in the wake of the gilt market crisis of September 2022, relations between the Bank of England and the UK government need a reset. In normal times, there is no doubt that an inflation-targeting independent central bank can serve a country well. But since 2008, the UK and other advanced economies have not had the luxury of such simple problems. To their credit, central bankers around the world have not stood on orthodoxy. After 2008, the US Federal Reserve rescued the global banking system and, through quantitative easing, it stabilised the Treasury market in the face of huge deficits. In Europe, things were trickier. Both the Bank of England under Mervyn King and Jean-Claude Trichet’s European Central Bank played cat and mouse with national governments. This was a high stakes wager that between 2010 and 2012 escalated bond market tension and triggered a disastrous turn to austerity. Shaken by the impact of those shocks, their successors, Mark Carney and Mario Draghi adopted a more protective stance (assuming you were not the government of Greece). Recall that Draghi’s legendary slogan, “Whatever it takes”, was uttered to face down the City of London’s bond vigilantes. In 2015, Draghi launched QE — financial repression by another name. In 2016, Carney used the authority of the Bank of England to stabilise markets following the vote for Brexit, an exemplary demonstration of how central banks can underpin democratic choice, even when those choices are wrong headed. All these were independent central bankers steeped in the best practice of the 1990s, who recognised that historic crises demanded radical action. It was the price surge of 2021-2023 that poisoned the atmosphere. Though the shock came mainly from the supply side, central banks ended up in the dock. Nowhere more so than in the UK. The Bank of England reacted with aggressive normalisation. Faced with a cost of living crisis, the governor called for workers to accept real wage cuts. In early 2022, as gas prices were at record levels and Russia’s army was poised to invade Ukraine, the Bank adopted a stringent programme of quantitative tightening, elevating interest rates. When the Truss government got itself in trouble, the Bank took almost a week to come to the rescue. Rather than enacting a charade of normality, it is time to recognise that in 2025 the UK faces a period of historic transition. To meet this challenge, what is needed is a new concordat with the Bank. This should not ignore inflationary pressures or the long-run trajectory of debt, but should affirm the priority of reviving investment-led growth. One could follow Donald Trump in demanding interest rate cuts. The Bank could shadow the ECB in its commitment to capping Eurozone yields. But the top priority should be to lay the ghost of September 2022. The Bank’s slowing of QT last month was a concession. An immediate and complete end would send the right signal. Such a concordat will not by itself restore sanity to politics, solve the housing problem or rebuild the NHS. But it would help to lift the fear of bond market crisis, which is paralysing the effort by democratic politicians to answer the fundamental questions facing the nation. Now, that call for a new concordat between government and Bank of Englands seems more urgent than ever. The problem is that in October 2025, Starmer still had some authority. Today the government is in tatters. And when you are the “under the harrow” - to echo a phrase of Montagu Norman’s from the 1920s - it is the worst possible time to consider institutional change. To make general arguments at a time of crisis can only seem like special pleading rather than a general argument for long-term change. The same, unfortunately, is also true for the other basic institutional reform that Britain urgently needs i.e. the abolition of the out-dated first past the post electoral system and its replacement by a moderated form of proportional representation. And thirdly - whilst we are saying the quiet parts out loud - Britain needs to reopen the question of EU membership. What the local election results of 2026 show is that this remains a key issue. And what they also show is that there is a clear majority that would favor a return. Until these basic features of Britain’s political economy are addressed the country will carry on its politics as though in a haunted house, governed by governments that lack actual majorities, conjuring up false constraints whilst ignoring the real ones. This one is for DG and MI. I love writing the newsletter. If you enjoy it too and fancy buying me a coffee once a month, you know what to do. Click below! Subscribe
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