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Man Utd, Neville and how the media agenda is set
Gary Neville setting the media agenda when it comes to Manchester United is not a new thing. One instance was in December 2021, after a poor first-half performance against a struggling Newcastle side when Ralf Rangnick's side trailed 1-0 at the break. "They're a bunch of whinge-bags," Neville said at half-time on Sky Sports.
Catholic Health to eliminate 40 positions systemwide
BUFFALO, N.Y. (WIVB) — Catholic Health says it’s implementing staffing changes at select locations to address patient needs, including the elimination of 40 positions systemwide. In a r…
In Senegal, a mother’s ordeal exposes a health system under strain
A difficult birth offers a glimpse into the pressures facing Senegal’s public healthcare system.
Ambassadors in Arvada, Colorado to make Olde Town safer, cleaner for businesses and community
A new program is designed to help visitors, businesses and unhoused community members in Arvada's Olde Town.
Botafogo renew contract with under-17 player
Botafogo has renewed the youth development contract of Miguel Tiburcio, a 16-year-old left-footed center-back who plays for Glorioso’s U-17 team. At the Club since 2021, Tiburcio will continue his d...
UAFS makes progress toward offering respiratory therapist program
The University of Arkansas at Fort Smith (UAFS) said Tuesday (Sept. 22) it is making progress on plans to offer an associate of applied science degree (AAS) in respiratory therapy,...
Gov. announces Doug Harringon to lead MT Department of Public Health and Human Services
The Governor’s Office on Tuesday announced that Montana Department of Public Health and Human Services Director Charlie Brereton will step down on Oct. 30.
Is the priority health care or profit?
My head is spinning. First, finger-pointing and counter-finger-pointing. Now a court ordered receiver — no wait, a sale agreement for West Sub and Weiss has been agreed upon (aka “the check is in the mail”). In the continued shenanigans about these two hospitals and with recriminations flying in both directions, there appears to be no […]
Michelle Zauner of Japanese Breakfast has a new memoir
PHILADELPHIA — "Crying in H Mart," the first book by Michelle Zauner of Philly-born band Japanese Breakfast, was a memoir published in 2021 that mourned the death of her mother,
What CDC's new teen health survey shows, and what it skips
Teen suicide risk hit a 10-year low in 2025. Guns, sexual violence, and self-harm. Where are the 2025 data on transgender teens? Missing data changes public health policy. Teen suicide risk hit a 10-year low in 2025. CDC asked more than 10,000 high school students over 100 questions in spring 2025. Yesterday, it published a report covering a fraction of them. The report focsed on five areas: diet, physical activity, sleep, digital behaviors, and mental health, reflecting the priorities of the Make America Healthy Again movement. There was good news. Fewer teens seriously considered suicide in 2025 than in any survey year since 2015: 14%, down from 20% in 2023. Sadness fell. Underlying Conditions is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe Sports participation, which dipped to 49% in 2021, is back to its 2015 level of 58%. Daily PE fell from 27% to 20% in two years, while fewer students eat breakfast daily than a decade ago. Guns, sexual violence, and self-harm. The questionnaire is public, and it goes well beyond those five areas. Students answered questions about sexual violence, self-harm, and whether they got help when they felt sad or anxious. They said how quickly they could get a loaded gun. They reported whether food ran out at home and whether they felt close to people at school. There were questions about sexual identity, including whether they were transgender. The report did not publish any of the answers students gave to those questions. CDC posts the raw survey data online, so anyone can see what the report left out. The report doesn’t cover the health of sexual minority students. Among students who identified as gay, lesbian, bisexual, questioning, or another non-straight identity, persistent sadness fell from 66% to 57% between 2023 and 2025. Serious thoughts of suicide fell from 41% to 30%. Those drops were bigger than the ones among straight students, although the gap remains wide: 28% of straight students reported persistent sadness, about half the rate of LGBQ+ students. About 1 in 7 girls reported sexual violence in the past year. One in 6 students hurt themselves on purpose. Among students who needed help for sadness or anxiety, half rarely or never got it. And among students who had seriously considered suicide, 43% said they could get a loaded gun without an adult’s permission. One protective factor rose sharply. In 2023, 55% of students said they felt close to people at their school; in 2025, 63% did. CDC’s earlier research ties that kind of connection to better mental health. Where are the 2025 data on transgender teens? In 2023, CDC's national survey asked high school students, for the first time, whether they were transgender. Their answers are the only nationally representative data on transgender teens, and their mental health is by far the worst of any demographic. That year, 71% of transgender students reported persistent sadness, 54% seriously considered suicide, and 26% attempted it, compared with 38%, 18%, and 8% of cisgender students. But we don’t have 2025 data. The timing matters because students took the survey in spring 2025, as federal policy toward transgender youth shifted. On January 28th, an executive order directed agencies to end federal support for gender-affirming care for people under 19, and several hospitals paused that care within days. In February, the CDC said it would no longer process transgender identity data. Later in 2025, the Supreme Court upheld Tennessee’s ban on gender-affirming care for minors, and HHS ended the 988 Lifeline’s dedicated line for LGBTQ+ youth. Researchers disagree about how much state policy shapes trans teens’ mental health. A 2024 Trevor Project study estimated that anti-trans laws increased suicide attempts among trans and nonbinary youth. Critics dispute its methods and its estimates. The 2025 survey could have added national evidence to that fight. CDC collected the data but hasn’t publicly released it. Missing data changes public health policy. Surveillance works as a feedback loop. It can show officials whether their policies help or hurt. The CDC didn’t provide data on the students most exposed to transgender policy shifts. The report kept measures that frame health as personal choice, like fruit, breakfast, and sports. It left out measures that track policy, like gun access, mental healthcare, food at home, and school climate, all of which respond to what legislators and agencies decide. HHS did not respond to questions that I sent on September 21st.
Heidi Health nabs $340M to deepen adoption of AI agents within health systems globally
Heidi Health nabs $340M to deepen adoption of AI agents within health systems globally - SiliconANGLE
Is 50 the new 60?
Subscribe TL;DR: Younger generations are showing signs of worse health compared to earlier-born cohorts at the same age This backward “drift” is showing up both in mortality risk and chronic disease Worsening trends in obesity and diabetes are the most consistent signals Taking the long view, we’ve made astonishing gains in health and life expectancy in the last century. Global average life expectancy has more than doubled from 32 years in 1900 to 73 years in 2024. (But don’t forget, there were still old people when life expectancy was 32). As people lived longer, they also generally lived healthier along the way. It turns out that avoiding things that can kill you early, like malnutrition and lots of childhood infections, also keeps you healthier later in life. In a classic 2004 paper, Finch and Crimmins proposed that cohorts of children who benefited from fewer early life infections had less lifetime exposure to inflammation and cardiovascular disease later in life, accelerating mortality improvements at older ages. Poor nutrition in the womb has also been linked to a higher risk of later chronic disease. The upshot is that improvements in childhood health can pay dividends many decades later. The combination of better living conditions (nutrition, sanitation) and medical advances (antibiotics, vaccines, blood pressure meds, etc) meant that people’s healthy lifespan generally expanded, even as they lived longer. Aging researchers call this best-case scenario “compression of morbidity”—meaning we delay the onset of disease and disability even faster than the years of life we are adding. During my 20+ year research career, we could generally bank on the idea that younger generations would not only live longer but also keep getting healthier along the way. “60 is the new 50” as they say… Enter “Generational Health Drift” Sadly, this expectation of steady progress may be changing. You’ve probably heard that US life expectancy gains have slowed to a crawl in the past couple of decades. Mortality improvements are also slowing (though less dramatically) in many other high-income countries (you can read more about that in a review paper I wrote here). Mortality is a very blunt health measure, but it is often a good barometer for the broader population health trends happening underneath. And we are now seeing that younger generations may be in worse health at similar ages compared to earlier born cohorts. My collaborator Prof. George Ploubidis at University College London coined this worsening health in more recently born cohorts “generational health drift.” “Generational health drift” is bad news on multiple fronts. Most obviously, we don’t want our health progress to go backward. But the timing is also bad, since our populations are aging. In demographic terms, “population aging” means that the proportion of the population at older ages (i.e >65 years) is increasing. Fun demography fact: Current population aging is not due to the recent declines in the birth rates making the news, but declines in fertility decades ago, after the “baby boom.” As baby boomers reach older ages, the smaller cohorts behind them mean the percentage of older adults will increase. For example, the share of the population age 65 and older in the US increased from 12.4% in 2004 to 18.0% in 2024. This story of population aging was written long ago. Many worry that population aging will put pressure on health care and pension systems. But if people reach older ages in better health than in years past, those fiscal pressures would be less dire than projected. Healthy older people can also continue to contribute to society in many valuable ways, including paid work, caregiving, community service….even high political office 🤷. On the flip side, if younger generations reach retirement age in worse health and with more disabling conditions, this could magnify the societal challenge of population aging. Evidence for worsening generational health A recent paper that I LOVED in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by Dr. Leah Abrams and colleagues examined which birth cohorts (aka generations) were behind worsening US mortality. Behold the Lexis diagram (cue swooning demographers). Calendar time is on the x-axis, age on the y-axis. Birth cohorts can be followed over time as they age on the diagonal lines moving up and to the right. This figure plots the year-on-year % change in all-cause mortality at a given age. Green shading indicates mortality improvements over time, white is stagnation, and gray shading indicates worsening mortality. Following the diagonal line for those born in 1950, you can see a noticeable shift from green to gray that follows this cohort for most of their lives. This gray shading shows generally worsening mortality for the 1950 to 1959 birth cohorts compared to their predecessors across all ages. Concerningly for my GenX and elder millennial peeps, there was also a deterioration in mortality for birth cohorts born in the 1970s and 1980s, visible as dark gray areas at ages 30 to 45 during the 2010s. While some of these mortality changes reflect specific shocks such as the opioid epidemic, most deaths still occur from major causes of death such as cardiovascular disease and cancer. For cancer, the gray in the top left corner of the figure below reflects the legacies of smoking for older cohorts, followed by a period of green with improvements in cancer mortality as smoking rates declined. But the white/gray shading in the bottom right corner highlights a stagnation and reversal of the cancer trends, with cohorts born around 1970 to 1985 experiencing worsening cancer mortality. This deterioration was most noticeable for colon cancer mortality, possibly linked to obesity or dietary factors. Not just dying more, but less healthy along the way. A recent paper by Dr. Laura Gimeno of University College London (of which I am a co-author), found evidence that more recently born cohorts in Great Britain have stagnating or worsening health. A stylized picture of what“generational health drift” might look like: The review paper found: Rates of childhood overweight and obesity were highest among Gen Z. Rates of diabetes in the 40s almost doubled from 3.1% among the Baby Boomers to 5.9% in Generation X. Gen Z reported higher rates of poor mental health in adolescence compared to earlier-born groups. These UK results are consistent with studies showing worsening health across generations in the US as well. A 2021 US study found that more recently born cohorts had worse biological markers (like blood pressure and blood sugar) than earlier generations at the same age. A separate 2022 study of Americans aged 50 and over found that more recently born generations had a higher number of chronic diseases, with younger age of disease onset. A 2024 Lancet paper found that in the US, women born in 1945 had 33% obesity prevalence at age 50, rising to 48.2% for women born in 1970 turning 50. So what’s going on, and can we turn it around? We don’t have a definitive answer for what’s causing the deteriorating health of younger cohorts, but circumstantial evidence points to worsening trends in obesity and diabetes in both the US and UK. Remember that cohort trends reflect lagged effects of early environments, and younger generations have faced both earlier onset and more severe obesity across their lifetimes. Despite these very concerning trends, the future is not set in stone. We’ve reversed poor generational health trends before: drops in smoking are a major reason cancer and heart disease deaths fell so dramatically in recent decades. GLP-1 drugs may finally turn the tide against rising rates of obesity and diabetes, though it is still early days. But things could also get worse…for example from a return to higher levels of childhood infectious diseases that can have a lasting impact on health. See for example: [ ](https://jenndowd.substack.com/p/dont-you-forget-about-measles-the) [ Don’t You Forget About Me(asles): The Virus That Erases Immune Memory ](https://jenndowd.substack.com/p/dont-you-forget-about-measles-the) Jenn Dowd, PhD · March 24, 2025 [ Read full story ](https://jenndowd.substack.com/p/dont-you-forget-about-measles-the) Even as an optimist, emerging data on the “generational health drift” has my full attention. For most of my research career, we took it for granted that each generation would be healthier than the last. But if present trends continue, **50 could be the new 60….**and Gen Z celebrities will soon look older than Paul Rudd :). Stay well, Jenn Share the Health! If you found this post useful, please share it with a friend. Share
COVID vaccines for uninsured Tennessee kids in limbo amid federal delays
The federal government hasn't said if it will continue to provide COVID-19 vaccines to low-income kids through a free immunization program,
Paramount Center for the Arts announces October lineup
The Paramount Center for the Arts in St. Cloud has released its October schedule, featuring concerts, plays and art classes.
Poetic Science in Plato's "Timaeus" ~ The Imaginative Conservative
What happens when one mixes science and poetry in the way that Timaeus does? What can we learn from this strange mix? My intention is to place before us some important themes that connect poetry and science. She was the single
Examining What Phoenix Suns Look Like With Different 2017 Draft
Derrick White’s defensive brilliance and versatile playmaking could have revolutionized Devin Booker’s backcourt, potentially steering Phoenix toward the 2021 title instead of years of draft-day regret.
Health Officials Identify Three Measles Exposure Sites in Flathead County
A person infected with measles visited Flathead County from Sept. 8 to Sept. 11, exposing people at three known sites across the valley, health officials announced Sunday. Officials said they are awaiting test results on a suspected case and said more exposure sites may be identified. The Flathead City-County Health Department confirmed two measles cases […]
Frontier Airlines suspends service from Sioux Falls
Frontier Airlines is suspending its service from the Sioux Falls Regional Airport next month.
The curious case of a Ponzi schemer’s glowing profile in a Missouri newspaper
A glowing profile of convicted Ponzi schemer Siddharth Jawahar in a Missouri newspaper raises questions about political PR, ownership and newsroom boundaries.
Connections: Sports Edition today: Hints and answers for Sept. 21, 2026, puzzle No. 728
Welcome to Connections: Sports Edition Coach — a spot to gather clues and discuss (and share) scores.
MALAYSIA HEALTHCARE DEEPENS BANGLADESH PRESENCE AS MEDICAL TOURISM DEMAND GROWS
/PRNewswire/ -- Malaysia Healthcare Travel Council (MHTC) deepened its engagement in Bangladesh through Malaysia Healthcare Week in Bangladesh, held from 16 to...
Massachusetts' plan to offer postpartum screening home visits sparks online debate
Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey is investing $2.25 million to send nurses into homes of new parents, sparking a heated government overreach debate.
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings Game Picks and Predictions
The WCG staff, including @GOOCH1701, @SamHouseholder, @iamcogs, and @wiltfongjr, makes their picks for the Bears vs. Vikings game!
Health officials warn of possible measles exposure at Union Station
People who were at Union Station between 8 a.m. and noon Saturday are advised to monitor for symptoms through Oct. 3
Week 3: Saturday College Football Schedule and Open Thread
For all the other games today.
Kaniksu Community Health earns national honors
Kaniksu Community Health received five national quality recognition badges from the Health Resources and Services Administration, including a Gold Badge awarded to health centers ranking among the top 10% nationwide for clinical quality performance.
Mobile-health-clinic-health-yemen-2016
Julien Harneis, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons
Support from longtime Vanderbilt Health donor Herbert Christopher provides open access to new textbook co-created by otolaryngologist David Haynes
The 2026 edition of“Haynes-Glasscock-Shambaugh Surgery of the Ear,” a textbook co-created by a Vanderbilt Health surgeon, has been made open access.
UA Trustees seek review of athletic program competitiveness
With Razorback football program failure becoming an obvious concern debated with varying degrees of vigor in many breakfast diners statewide, a member of the University of Arkansas Board of Trustees...
Business 51 rebuild through Weston slips toward 2030 as village presses state for a crossing DOT says won't fit
Weston has been planning for Business 51 construction in 2029-30. The DOT's schedule now points to 2030-31. Meanwhile, the village is pushing for a pedestrian crossing at Neupert Avenue that the state says the highway can't fit, and it just lost a grant for a second crossing near the elementary school.
Y Combinator insurance tech alum Angle Health hits $2.7B valuation
Angle Health has grown to 5,000 customers and become profitable, by helping small businesses get "level-funded" health insurance.
Logan Health Nurses Ratify New Contract with Immediate 18% Raise
Unionized nurses at Logan Health in Kalispell announced a new approved contract with the hospital last week, marking their biggest to date, said Donna Nelson, a registered nurse and union delegate. Nurses ratified their first contract with SEIU Healthcare 1199NW representing them in 2021, a process that took two years and included a three-day strike […]
Mid-Michigan entertainment for the weekend of Sept. 18-20 and beyond
Check out what’s happening in town this weekend.
Wisconsin health officials hopeful encouraging measles vaccination can stop growing outbreak
On Wednesday, the Wisconsin Department of Health Services announced two new measles cases in Vernon County, including one in a person visiting the county from out of state.
To err is human, to forgive takes work: what science and therapy reveal about truly letting go
Family gatherings can reopen old wounds, but research shows resentment can affect both mind and body; psychotherapist Edna Arbel explains why forgiveness cannot be forced and how processing pain, setting boundaries and therapy can help us truly let go
Rooted Architecture Studio PLLC
Founded in 2021, Rooted Architecture Studio PLLC is a client-centered and wellness-centered architecture firm proudly built and led by a woman.
Buzz on Business: Low Key Cocktail Bar to Stay Closed
Above: Low Key in 2021, shortly after it opened. And Savor EG is happening next week! With additional reporting by Elizabeth McNamara Do you have an update you’d like to see included here regarding an 02818 business? Whether it’s small or big news, we’d like to hear from you! Share the buzz: editor@eastgreenwichnews.com. Low Key […]
Adam Smith Named Chairman, Direct-to-Consumer, Disney Entertainment
Adam Smith will become Chairman, Direct-to-Consumer, Disney Entertainment, overseeing the company's streaming platforms globally. Joe Earley will be moving into a new role as President, Disney Entertainment Television Franchise and Content Strategy.
Bookwaves/Artwaves - September 17, 2026: Mary Roach, America's Funniest Science Author, Part One
Two Interviews with best-selling science writer Mary Roach. From 2010, "Packing for Mars: The Curious Science of Life in the Void." looks at life as an astronaut and in outer space. From 2021, "Fuzz: When Nature Breaks The Law" examines what happens when animals break the law (as opposed to joining the FBI if they've been abused). Also: Reviews of "The Cook" at Berkeley Rep through October 11, 2026, and "African Stew" at the Magic through September 27, 2026. Hosted by Richard Wolinsky.
Illinois Fighting Illini 2026 Football Preview
Some of the more headscratching losses over Nebraska’s lost decade have come at the hands of the Illini. Start with Mike Riley’s throw-the-ball-into-a-gale debacle in 2015, the “field a punt at the goal line” mistakes of 2021 or the Dylan Raiola in full retreat overtime offense in 2024. Almost as bad as against Minnesota; we […]
Florida congresswoman running for reelection breaks with Trump on immigration
Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar is out with a new ad criticizing President Donald Trump’s deportation campaign.
[Press release] Global Fund report shows countries fought to protect essential health services despite challenging year
The Global Fund has now helped save 72 million lives since 2002, with this year’s Results Report highlighting how country and community leadership, innovation and partnership helped protect essential services.
Sweden's Andersson: a trusted, no-nonsense political operator
Magdalena Andersson, who was Sweden's first woman prime minister in 2021-2022, is a no-nonsense operator looking to return the left to power after her election win on Thursday.She regrouped with the ...
Koumas 'a good stylistic match' for an Iraola team
Liverpool.com journalist Matt Addison has said young forward Lewis Koumas "certainly made the most" of his opportunity to start Tuesday's Carabao Cup win over Tottenham. The 20-year-old played 86 minutes, was relentless in leading the press from the front, and was denied a goal by a fine save from Spurs goalkeeper Martin Dubravka. "I thought he was excellent," Addison told BBC Radio Merseyside.
Exclusive: Wayflyer collects $50M to fuel expansion
The small business lender wants to grow beyond consumer brands and offer more products.
Broadband access predicts health tracker use, UWM research suggests
As Fitbits, Apple watches and Oura Rings grow ubiquitous, UWM research suggests digital inequity doesn't allow them to reach those who could benefit most.
Luminis is the latest health system hacked: ‘Everybody’s at risk’
Luminis was hacked on Sept. 1, and aside from a vague statement issued on Sept. 10, the provider isn’t saying much about what happened and when services might be restored.
Three takeaways from Nebraska volleyball’s sweep against Creighton
It was business as usual for the Huskers as they sent the Bluejays home in three sets for the first time since 2021. Nebraska remains perfect with a 25-0 record all-time in the I-80 Rivalry. The Huskers now move to 8-0 on the year and continue to prove that they are the best team in the country.
Florida high school football rivalry prank turns into police investigation
Five Florida high school students were trespassed after a failed pregame prank at a rival school.
UCF Has Had Terrible QB Injury Luck Since 2021 Season
From Alonza Barnett III to Dillon Gabriel, recurring late-game injuries have derailed the Knights' momentum, forcing coach Scott Frost to navigate another season behind backup arms.
What Does the Science of Climate Change Really Look Like?
Editor’s Note: This is the second in a three-part series on how the Right should think about environmental and climate policy. Read Chris Barnard on Reclaiming Environmental Policy from the Left. More than a decade ago, the world’s governments negotiated and signed the Paris Climate Agreement, committing to hold global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius. In the following years, climate had immense cultural power. Greta Thunberg emerged. Fortune 500 companies established net-zero plans. The U.S. got the Inflation Reduction Act. Then the pendulum swung back. President Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office, speaking of green energy as a “scam” and carbon footprints as a “hoax” and on all matters of international policy emphasizing bilateral engagement and power over globalism and cooperation. The technology companies that had been at the forefront of net-zero pledges and green leadership discovered the importance of all-of-the-above power to their visions for artificial intelligence and began quietly postponing or removing their targets. On the left side of the political spectrum, rising concerns about inflation and cost pushed climate lower down in the stated priorities of voters and stump speeches of politicians. The moment is ripe for a reset on the politics of climate change and for conservatives especially to chart a course that acknowledges and addresses the real challenges in plausible ways. So what should we think about climate change as we enter a post-peak climate era? If it is neither an apocalypse nor a hoax, what will hold up as a durable view of climate change? And how does it project onto the concerns and priorities of the right-of-center’s emerging coalition? New to Commonplace_? Subscribe below to get the magazine in your inbox._ Subscribe A Solid Foundation As the politics and economics of climate careened over the past ten years, the physics carried on regardless. In 2015, the year the Paris Climate Agreement was adopted, the world emitted 41.2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. By 2025, emissions had risen only 2.4%, to 42.2 gigatonnes, because falling emissions from land use offset increasing emissions from fossil fuels. But slow growth in annual emissions is not rapid decline, let alone net-zero, so carbon dioxide kept accumulating in the atmosphere, going from 399 to 426 parts per million. Global temperature kept rising too, from about 1.1 degrees Celsius above the 1850–1900 average in 2015, to 1.4 degrees above it in 2025. None of this should surprise anyone. Even most prominent skeptics, like the authors of the 2025 report commissioned by the Trump administration’s Department of Energy, accept the basic physics. Carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere at industrial volumes accumulates and traps heat that would otherwise escape to space. That heat warms the upper ocean and increases temperatures at the surface. Increased ocean heat and melting of land ice cause sea levels to rise. Changes in the climate become noticeable to us as subtle shifts in temperature and precipitation, seasons arriving early or late, changes in the surrounding ecosystem, and weather extremes. The much more meaningful debate is not about whether these things are happening, but about what it all means for human societies. (While it is a proxy measure of overall risk, no one experiences global surface temperature.) This debate invokes at least three interesting questions: how much today’s warming is showing up in regional climate trends, how much more warming we should anticipate, and how extreme weather events can be understood in the context of climate change. Recent scientific advances give us new insights into each of these, but there is still much to learn. This is the context in which the next generation of conservative leaders will be the first to deal with significant climate change as a fact, not a forecast. It will be with them for their entire careers. Our evolving scientific picture of climate change will come from weather and climate records stretching further into the past, new kinds of observations in the present, better modeling tools for the future, and simply more time to observe the emergence of climate signals and their tangible effects on ecosystems and communities in the United States and around the world. The policy landscape will be shaped by not only the impacts of changes in the climate, but also by the ways in which societies respond and by the emergence of new technologies for both altering the trajectory of emissions and adapting to new climate realities. Global climate records now show the fingerprints of warming in different phenomena around much of the world. The IPCC, in its most recent assessment report, documents warming trends over all land regions, even as natural variability adds substantial variance to local trends. And the highest temperature extremes have become more intense and frequent, almost everywhere, since the 1950s. Scientists are highly confident that these changes are attributable to human influence. But confidence in detecting trends and attributing them to human influence degrades across heavy precipitation events; drought trends are heterogeneous and not attributable to human activity with great confidence. For hurricanes, tornadoes, and other severe storms there is even less confidence in trends or their relationship to climate change. In general, a fair summary of the evidence is that for well-observed phenomena, like surface temperature or heavy rainfall, with a clear relationship to warming, our multidecadal observations are consistent with human influence overcoming natural variability over long time periods and extremes increasing. For regions that are sampled more sparsely, or phenomena with a higher noise-to-signal ratio, we will need to observe them longer to understand the magnitude of the climate signal or improve dynamical understanding using models and observations together. But for Climate For those who can’t wait, we also have new techniques that attempt to understand the role climate change has in influencing particular extreme events. When the climate is changing and disaster strikes, it is natural to ask whether that disaster was somehow “caused” by climate change. For scientists and policymakers acting in good faith, answering that question helps develop a more accurate picture of the problem, how it may be getting worse, and what preparations we should be making to respond to it. It may, at some point, give some weight to how liability is assigned by courts or adaptation funding is distributed by society. But how we ask this question is extremely important. It is easy to get the analysis wrong by discounting the role that meteorology plays. As meteorologist Theodore Shepherd explained in a clear 2016 review of climate attribution methods, “if a weather or climate event is truly extreme in the present climate, then perforce it requires unusual meteorological conditions, which means that climate change is at most a contributing factor.” Share Scientists have two ways to probe climate as a contributing factor, both of which have entered media coverage of extreme weather events. One asks a probabilistic question: How much more likely is a particular event (e.g., a temperature record over a particular area) amid global warming? The answer involves using historical records and computer simulations to estimate the likelihood of such an event in both a changed and a preindustrial climate. The findings are less about the specific event, and more about events of that nature. The other question is: How has the changed climate affected the specific event in question? Here, scientists try to understand what a similar event would have looked like in the preindustrial climate. This is sometimes called the storyline approach, where the story is the specific meteorological details of the event. These methods offer ways to test the intuition of scientists about real weather extremes. In late June and early July of 2021, a persistent high-pressure ridge, or heat dome, set up over the Pacific Northwest and an extraordinary heat wave affected the area from Oregon to British Columbia. For six days, it shattered temperature records across the region and hundreds died from heat-related causes, in an area where such high, and persistently high, temperatures were well outside of experience and many live without air conditioning. Scientists have studied its connection to climate change using multiple approaches. This specific event was created by a rare combination of meteorological factors, a strong high-pressure ridge created the conditions for extreme heat, which occurred on top of higher average temperatures in the region from global warming. Probabilistic analyses showed that climate change increased the likelihood of such an event by at least 8-fold to more than 100-fold. One standout example found that such an event had effectively zero probability of occurring in the preindustrial climate. The enormous range in these assessments reflects how hard it is to estimate probabilities of events at the tail of the historical record. Estimates of the effect on the temperature of the event are more clustered. A recent review paper documents how multiple methodologies have found a positive influence, roughly 1-2 degrees Celsius of an anomaly that exceeded 15 degrees, of climate change on the temperature magnitude of the event. Multiple studies have investigated and found some positive influence of climate change in other extreme events. Attribution studies found climate likely increased the heavy rainfall that accompanied Hurricane Helene in North Carolina and surrounding regions in 2024. The extensive fires that struck Los Angeles in 2025 illustrate how the causal chain can become messy, though. Studies do detect a positive influence of climate on the event’s likelihood, but while climate change likely contributed to underlying aridity, it would not have played a role in the heavy winds or land practices that preceded disaster. These event attribution studies will become more common for extreme, or damaging, weather events. They can be produced quickly, and often are reported before peer review. As the Pacific Northwest heatwave example shows, when multiple methods converge on a positive attribution, the finding should probably carry some weight even if you have to be careful about accepting the results from a single study. I expect that as climate change proceeds and the climate thus departs further from a preindustrial counterfactual, the influence will become more detectable across a variety of extreme events and more easily identified. This will be used to cast blame, but can also be used to inform how communities and society adapt to ongoing change. We May Still Be Surprised One positive development, insofar as less climate change is better, has been that our central estimates for future climate change should probably be revised downward. Mostly, that is because the high-end warmings that scientists regularly analyzed about ten to 20 years ago, driven by high emissions throughout the twenty-first century, now appear to be somewhere between unlikely and impossible. At one time, the upper end of mainstream climate projections extended well into 4 to 6 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of this century, which, models suggest, would have wrought enormous real-world damage. Current energy and policy trends now point toward 2.5 or 3 degrees. Damages and risks are commonly modeled as increasing steeply with more warming, so this is already a better-than-previously-expected outcome for the climate (which is independent of the physical response to emissions). But we should maintain a wide range for plausible outcomes and prepare for the possibility of being surprised. Emissions trajectories are subject to deep uncertainty, the physical climate response is still developing, and whatever change occurs in the climate will then be mediated through unpredictable economic, social, and political institutions. Over the past decade, the pace of warming surprised some keen observers and appeared to accelerate, though not yet outside the range of expectation provided by climate models. The reasons for that apparent acceleration are being actively studied (as was the apparent pause in warming from 1998 to 2012), but no single driver has emerged. Some blame it on the El Niño, variability which would have no bearing on climate. Some think it is a result of factories in East Asia and global shipping fleets cutting aerosol emissions, which in the strongest version of the argument would indicate higher climate sensitivity to carbon-dioxide emissions. Others are more measured, not yet ready to draw solid conclusions as to whether climate projections require revision. We will have to see. Long-Term Thinking Climate change asks us to think over long time scales. But the pace of human-driven warming is compressing a large global change into a century. Changing weather patterns and extreme events are already causing adjustment costs and damages and will do more. Adaptation will help, but it is not free. For some communities, these costs will erode livelihoods and well-being, and may force migration. Are we prepared for large-scale managed retreats in the United States? Thankfully, American wealth, geographical diversity, and moderate climates may leave us better prepared than many around the world. But wealthy countries can still suffer serious disruption from narrowly concentrated costs, even if they appear entirely manageable in aggregate. Readers of Commonplace are familiar with the challenges of rapidly adapting to economic forces. The displacement that came from the China Shock is barely perceptible in aggregate GDP and employment data, but it affected millions of people and those people were far less mobile than economic models tended to assume. Deindustrialization rippled through the nation with enormous effects for not only our economic vitality, but also our national security. The forces surrounding climate change may not be so different; the world gets richer and must accept some diffuse costs. Those may be modest overall, but cause all manner of unpredictable effects with which policymakers must cope. In the case of the China Shock, our faith in a growing pie served us poorly. We’ll need to do better on climate. Leave a comment
Community Conversation: Dr. Daniel Reed with UVA Health (09-16-26)
Hematologist Oncologist Dr. Daniel Reed
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Wednesday Sept. 9 Little Nashville • Marion Writers Rounds, 6 p.m. PK’s • Carbondale Trivia, 8 p.m. Advertisement Booby’s • Carbondale Gritty Biscuit & Guitar Rabbit, 8 p.m. Hangar 9 • Carbondale Karaoke Night, 8 p.m. Thursday Sept. 10 Booby’s • Carbondale Open Mic Karaoke Night, 8:30 p.m. Hangar 9 • Carbondale ...
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