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Trump officials plan to shift more research funding to individual scientists
In a wide-ranging memo, they also directed federal agencies to experiment with models other than peer-review for assessing research proposals.
NASA’s MAVEN Illuminates New Understanding of Auroras at Mars
NASA MAVEN (Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution) mission scientists have uncovered a key puzzle piece in understanding certain types of auroras on Mars,
When It Comes to Fusion, Materials Matter
Fusion at high temperatures powers the sun and, if harnessed, could provide a potential source of energy here on Earth. But controlling fusion reactions has other benefits. The process also generates subatomic particles called neutrons that are used in a range of applications spanning medicine, research, and national security. Now, scientists at the University of California, Davis (UC Davis), and the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) have found that the materials surrounding a fusion reaction can dramatically increase how often it occurs, particularly at low energies where fusion is rare. The study was published July 18 in Nature Communications. Their approach sets up a way to study and engineer nuclear reactions within solid materials, opening a new field of “materials-driven fusion.” Instead of designing materials just to survive the harsh conditions of fusion, researchers might be able to design materials that boost the reaction in specific conditions, similar to the way catalysts speed up chemical processes. “It gives you a new knob to turn that you didn’t have before,” said Arun Persaud, head of the Fusion Science & Ion Beam Technology group in Berkeley Lab’s Accelerator Technology & Applied Physics (ATAP) Division. “If we understand this effect better, it opens the door to engineering new materials that would affect the fusion rate under certain conditions. Someday future progress might enable more compact and efficient neutron generators, which have all kinds of applications, like cargo screening, planetary science, and medical therapy and imaging.” In the experiment, researchers used two different methods to pack deuterium, a heavy form of hydrogen atoms that is often used in fusion, into thin foils of palladium and titanium. They then fired a beam of deuterium ions at the foils at different energies and measured how often fusion happened. Then they compared the rates from the different materials and methods with the “bare” fusion reaction (not in a material). The team found that fusion rates depended on how the deuterium was loaded into the metal foils. The biggest effect was at the lowest energies, below 2.5 kiloelectronvolts (keV), where theory predicts fusion rates drop off sharply. Instead, researchers found a surprising plateau: Some samples showed elevated fusion rates roughly a quintillion times higher than bare fusion reactions. (A quintillion is a 1 followed by 18 zeroes.) Researchers are not exactly sure why that’s happening, though they have some ideas and ways to test them. The electrons and defects within the material might partially shield repulsive electrostatic forces between deuterium nuclei, making it easier for them to get close together and fuse. Tuning the electronic structure, defects, and composition of materials could help make nuclear reactions happen more readily. “It comes down to better understanding the mechanism so that we can try to enhance it,” said corresponding author Jeremy Munday, a professor at UC Davis. “We’ve seen that we can increase fusion rates, but what is the limit? Can we bring it to lower temperatures or energies? There’s obviously a lot of interest and excitement about fusion, so if there’s something we can learn about the physics at these lower energy scales, maybe there’s something we can translate to other areas of nuclear science.” The team plans to explore a wider range of materials and continue probing the unexpected fusion plateau at lower energies. Their work establishes a reproducible experimental platform to study how solid materials influence nuclear reactions, creating a new area of research that links fusion science with materials science and chemistry. “The work shows conclusively that the material environment where fusion occurs at low temperatures is an active participant rather than a passive container,” said Cameron Geddes, director of ATAP. “That adds a new dimension to fusion research.” This work was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E). ### Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) is committed to groundbreaking research focused on discovery science and solutions for abundant and reliable energy supplies. The lab’s expertise spans materials, chemistry, physics, biology, earth and environmental science, mathematics, and computing. Researchers from around the world rely on the lab’s world-class scientific facilities for their own pioneering research. Founded in 1931 on the belief that the biggest problems are best addressed by teams, Berkeley Lab and its scientists have been recognized with 17 Nobel Prizes. Berkeley Lab is a multiprogram national laboratory managed by the University of California for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Science. DOE’s Office of Science is the single largest supporter of basic research in the physical sciences in the United States, and is working to address some of the most pressing challenges of our time. For more information, please visit energy.gov/science.
White House Science Report Calls For Reducing University Research Funding
A White House report calls for reduced funding for universities and argues that the government should re-allocate much of the money to the “individual scientist” instead.
U. of C. Scientists Call for Halt to Quantum Construction
Much of their report focuses on contamination at the former South Works property
White House Report Criticizes The Immigration Of Scientists To America
A new White House report criticizes the immigration of scientists to America, arguing it’s bad whether international students stay or leave.
ETSU scientist named Fulbright Scholar
Dr. Aruna Kilaru, professor of Biological Sciences at ETSU, has been named a Fulbright Scholar to India.
A Peptide Showdown: F.D.A. Scientists May Clash With R.F.K.’s Agenda
Agency scientists are advising against allowing widespread use of several peptide injections. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the health secretary, has said people should be free to experiment.
Orcas Keep Punching Giant Sunfish to Smithereens, And Scientists Are Mesmerized
Orca SMASH!
China fires up powerful particle accelerator to unlock secrets of atoms
Facility in country’s south will help scientists answer some of the biggest questions in nuclear physics, according to its chief designer.
Trump to steer billions from universities to AI and individual scientists
White House says overhaul will back AI and researchers to restore the US scientific edge as Beijing closes the innovation gap.
Michigan Tech Atmospheric Scientists Linked to Three Research Projects Selected for DOE Genesis Mission
Michigan Technological University researchers are involved in three proposals tapped by the U.S. Department of Energy for consideration under its recently launched Genesis Mission: Transforming Science and Energy with AI. The mission’s goal is to address national science and technology challenges using artificial intelligence.
A Better Starting Point for Science and Society: Relationship vs. Transaction
A knowledge-deficit model underpins much of scientists’ communication to the public. The solution? Scientists need to more generous and less needy.
Trump administration to shift R&D funding from academia to individual scientists
The Trump administration announced it plans to shift some of the $200 billion in annual funding for research and development away from academic institutions to focus on individual scientists. In a …
Scientists found a 2,865-pound predator from before dinosaurs ruled Earth; now 2,000 ordinary people are helping reveal its skeleton
A huge fossilised skeleton weighing 1,300 kilograms (2,865 pounds) that was found in southern Poland is currently being chipped out of solid rock by a group of more than 2,000 public volunteers.
Scientists discover hidden gateways that allow the brain to clear waste
The brain continuously produces metabolic waste that must be removed to maintain healthy function. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) plays a central role in this process by carrying away proteins such as amyloid-β, ...
Strange Milky Way planetary system leaves scientists puzzled
Scientists are documenting a planetary system in the Milky Way galaxy that is so starkly dissimilar to our own solar system that they are struggling to find the proper terminology to describe it.
Great Barrier Reef microbiome mapped as researchers discover 500 bacterial species previously unknown to science
Research identifies 808,585 viral genomes belonging to what scientists estimate to be 362,802 different viruses
Phone breathalyser can detect when your body switches to burning fat
A handheld breathalyser picks up on a molecule called acetone, revealing that your body is using fat for energy
White House wants to shift billions of dollars of research funding away from ‘slow consensus peer review’ and into individual scientists and AI
Moving funding to individual scientists and AI could undermine US scientific credibility at home and abroad.
Scientists warn of potential global marine invasive species event linked to idle ships in the Strait of Hormuz
New research from an international team of 24 marine scientists, led by the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (UMCES) and including the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), ...
Why Did This Man Avoid Alzheimer’s? Scientists Reveal Their Astonishing Theory - Futura-Sciences
A Family Plagued by Early-Onset Alzheimer’s Doug Whitney inherited a rare genetic mutation that’s devastated much of his family: many relatives experienced significant cognitive decline as early as their 50s. Yet Doug himself has stayed mentally alert well past the age at which illness struck in the family. According to...
Sunlight Boosts Fertility? What Scientists Have Discovered Will Surprise You - Futura-Sciences
Vitamin D, Sunlight, and Sperm: Digging Into the Science A meta-analysis published in the journal Biomedicines reviewed several observational studies that all pointed to a significant link between vitamin D levels—which are mainly produced in humans through sunlight exposure—and sperm characteristics. These studies also suggested a connection between higher blood...
FSU Colleges of Nursing and Medicine awarded $1.6M NIH grant to train next generation of nurse scientists in digital health and AI
The Florida State University College of Nursing and College of Medicine have been awarded a more than $1.6 million Institutional National Research Service
FSU Colleges of Nursing and Medicine awarded $1.6M NIH grant to train next generation of nurse scientists in digital health and AI
The Florida State University College of Nursing and College of Medicine have been awarded a more than $1.6 million Institutional National Research Service
Ken Kollman to succeed David Campbell as Democracy Initiative director in January
As the University of Notre Dame’s Democracy Initiative approaches its fourth year, Inaugural Director David Campbell, the Packey J. Dee Professor of American Democracy, is preparing to transition leadership of the initiative to renowned political scientist Ken Kollman, the Dr. William M. Scholl Professor of Politics in the Department of Political Science and the Keough School of Global Affairs. Kollman began a six-month term as director-designate on July 1 and will formally take over as Democracy Initiative director on Jan. 1.
This Lightning Storm Never Ends. Scientists Finally Figured Out Why.
Venezuela's Lake Maracaibo flashes up to nine hours a night, 160 nights a year. A new model predicts strikes three months in advance.
Trump administration says 15 agencies will get $5bn in ‘AI for science’ effort
Administration will also overhaul how US government funds federal research by supporting individual scientists and AI over universities
Scientists attach cameras to whale sharks, capturing how the world’s biggest fish hunts like never before
For decades, marine scientists have watched whale sharks (Rhincodon typus), the world’s biggest fish, from boats and while snorkelling. They could only catch glimpses of the world’s largest fish gliding through tropical waters.
American scientists see prosecutions as part of federal campaign against them
Federal officials charged two virologists they stopped en route from an African disease outbreak with violating import rules. But scientists tell KFF Health News the inactivated samples they carried posed no threat to the public, and they characterize the arrests as part of a government harassment campaign.
Does the science of peptides live up to the hype?
Synthetic peptides are getting some serious hype, from fitness influencers on your FYP to people seeking new options for chronic conditions. And while the human body already makes peptides, like insulin and the hormone oxytocin, most of the viral synthetic peptides are not approved by the Food and Drug Administration. Scientists say that raises some big concerns about safety and efficacy. So ahead of this week’s FDA meeting to discuss seven commonly used peptides, we get into the science with health reporter Sarah Boden.Interested in more science behind health trends? Email us your question at shortwave@npr.org.Support public media with NPR+ and enjoy perks for over 25 podcasts like this one. It includes perks like bonus episodes, early access, archive access, curated playlists and sponsor-free listening. Learn more at plus.npr.org.
2,000 volunteers join a painstaking effort to restore massive skeleton of prehistoric predator
More than 2,000 volunteers are helping Polish scientists restore a Mastodonsaurus skeleton
2,000 volunteers join a painstaking effort to restore massive skeleton of prehistoric predator
More than 2,000 volunteers are helping Polish scientists restore a Mastodonsaurus skeleton.
Volunteers help Polish scientists restore rare Mastodonsaurus skeleton
More than 2,000 volunteers are helping Polish scientists restore a Mastodonsaurus skeleton. This massive amphibian was an aquatic predator from around the dawn of the dinosaur age.
Hitting the ocean floor: Scientists could soon live undersea
A new habitat could expand research opportunities
Inside science's 'forbidden experiment': Why scientists kill 9 million sea lampreys every year in the Great Lakes of America
At the June meet-and-greet organised by the GLFC, half a dozen sea lampreys posed for the cameras at the Capitol. One of them even sucked on the palm of Representative Bill Huizenga, as per a CNN report.
The Ocean Wave Scientists Thought Was Impossible
These massive walls of water may be far more common than we once believed.
Exclusive | White House to Redirect Billions in Research Funds Toward AI, Away From Colleges
The overhaul will reshape $200 billion in spending a year and favors individual scientists to outpace China.
New Skipper Science App program to fill data gaps in Bristol Bay sport fishery
In all Alaskan fisheries, good data is a critical part of management. But the collection of that data doesn't have to be left to just scientists. Within Bristol Bay's sport fishery, there's a new way for guides to report their catches and observations, helping build a robust record of Bristol Bay catches.
Scientists spot evidence of two huge companion stars that blew up
Unlike our sun, most of the largest stars in the cosmos are not solo acts, but rather are born together with another star in what is called a binary system, destined to spend their lives gravitationally bound in a cosmic marriage. But not even the best marriage — on Earth or in space — lasts forever.
When a SpaceX rocket crashes into the moon, scientists will be watching
On Aug. 5, 2026, an abandoned piece of space junk is predicted to crash into the moon near a spot called Einstein Crater. Astronomers will be watching because the collision and aftermath may be visible ...
A Massive Flow of Rock and Mud Tumbled Down Mount Rainier Centuries Ago. Scientists Pinpointed Its Date to Better Understand the Volcano's Complex Threats
In a recent study, researchers dated a historic lahar called the Electron Mudflow to the summer of 1507, establishing a way to determine when past geologic events around the Puget Sound occurred
Susumu Tonegawa Dies at 86; Nobel Laureate Showed How Antibodies Fight Infection
The first Japanese scientist to win the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, he went on to discover how memories are stored, advancing understanding of how the brain works.
Agentic AI in biomedical research: What is it and can it expedite science?
Researchers are venturing into a new area of collaboration that relies on agentic AI, co-scientists that can act independently and help humans ideate, hypothesize and speed up scientific exploration.
LPI Scientists Honored with Asteroid Naming by the IAU
The International Astronomical Union (IAU) has recognized the scientific achievements of Universities Space Research Association (USRA) scientists Dr. Imene Kerraouch and Dr. Allison McGraw by naming asteroids (20452) Kerraouch and (20092) Allisonmcgraw in their honor.
The World's Largest Dried Lakebed Is Leaking Vast Amounts of Carbon. But Scientists Say There's a Solution.
It will take a flood to fix this.
China’s Chang’e-6 reveals why solar wind hits the Moon’s two sides differently
China’s Chang’e-6 samples have uncovered a surprising difference between the Moon’s two hemispheres. Solar wind particles penetrated deeper into the far-side soil because Earth’s magnetosphere slows the particles that reach the near side. Noble gases locked inside the lunar regolith preserved evidence of this uneven bombardment. These gases may even help scientists reconstruct the ancient history of Earth’s magnetic shield.
In 2025, US scientists poured 16,500 gallons of lye and bright pink dye into the Gulf of Maine, the first federally approved attempt to reverse the ocean's rising acidity
On an August morning in 2025, a research vessel in the Gulf of Maine released 16,500 gallons of sodium hydroxide (lye) into the ocean while a plume of bright pink dye spread across the water's surface. To onlookers, the vivid pink patch looked alarming.
Scientists discover sugar in interstellar space
The first detection of sugar in the interstellar medium could shed more light on how life began on Earth
Aboriginal people harvested channel millet for thousands of years, and scientists have now found the native grass carries 12 copies of each chromosome
Seen from the air, Channel Country in outback Australia looks like a vast, living tapestry. A web of rivers and creeks fans out across more than 280,000 square kilometres of desert, creating one of the world’s last truly free‑flowing arid river systems.
Scientists Find a Way Around a 160-Year-Old Law of Physics to Create Programmable Heat
A 'smarter' way to manipulate heat.
Scientists Find a More Precise Way to Grow Artificial Blood Vessels, Using Magnets
Essential for lab-grown organs.
WHO marks 25 years of Research4Life, advancing access to scientific knowledge in more than 120 countries
The World Health Organization (WHO) today marks the 25th anniversary of Research4Life, a public-private partnership that provides researchers, educators, health professionals and policy-makers in low- and middle-income countries with affordable or free access to scientific knowledge.
The Sewer Knows What You Ate
During the Covid-19 pandemic, wastewater testing became a virus warning system. Now, scientists are using the approach to understand how communities eat.
Scientists Were Wrong About Fireflies’s Light. The Impact Could Ripple Across All of Science.
For more than a century, an overestimation of a firefly’s brightness has persisted.
Science Under the Sword of Damocles
By Sam Halpern, M.D. I have spent my working life in medicine as a clinician and a medical scientist. I have watched with awe as basic and applied medical science placed new and effective tools in…
Science Under the Sword of Damocles
By Sam Halpern, M.D. I have spent my working life in medicine as a clinician and a medical scientist. I have watched with awe as basic and applied medical science placed new and effective tools in…
Monitoring the health of NH bats requires a little eavesdropping
A group of bat advocates, including scientists at UNH, NH Fish and Game and volunteers have been working together to monitor the health of the state’s bats.
How to maximise the mental health benefits of your vacation
Don’t just hit the beach. Research is revealing how to have a holiday that leaves you mentally restored and refreshed – with long-lasting effect
Lessons from the wild
Plant scientists at Washington University in St. Louis organize research on wild plant diseases that could help agricultural systems endure climate change.
New grant to improve discovery of potential diagnostic, therapeutic molecules
Carly Schissel, assistant professor of chemistry, is part of a multi-institution team that has been selected to receive funding from the Scialog: Automating Chemical Laboratories initiative. The initiative supports teams of early-career scientists doing fundamental science to accelerate advances in laboratory technologies using automation and artificial intelligence.
Shaky political "science": breakdown of the peer review process
[This article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in December 2025, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting (RCV). Many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first four articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report; the second one analyzed a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report; a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research; and a fourth article that analyzed seven studies sponsored by New America’s political reform program that deployed flawed methodology based on “simulated” elections instead of real-world elections, which when combined with some basic misunderstandings of RCV, produced odd and misleading results]. In this fifth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we examine two flawed studies on the impact of RCV on voter turnout authored by San Francisco State University professor Jason McDaniel. McDaniel’s research in these two papers stands out for its puzzling methodology, inadequate and cherry-picked data, and faulty analyses that not only misunderstands ranked choice voting but reflects a basic misunderstanding of politics in general. The first of the McDaniel studies actually passed through a peer review process and then was subsequently published by the Journal of Urban Affairs, despite its obvious errors. It is perplexing that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the errors and send it back to McDaniel for a rewrite or outright rejection. This calls into question the credibility of the peer review process itself. The peer review process is supposed to represent the intellectual pinnacle of the profession – a way for academics to certify the quality of each other’s work, and to act as a check against sloppy research. In the case of the McDaniel study, the peer review process failed. Yet his flawed study has been cited dozens of times by other political scientists in their own flawed works — an unvirtuous circle of academic research. Here is the first Jason McDaniel study that we analyzed: “Writing the Rules to Rank the Candidates: Examining the Impact of Instant-Runoff Voting on Racial Group Turnout in San Francisco Mayoral Elections,” by Jason McDaniel, 2016, Journal of Urban Affairs. This study covered San Francisco’s use of ranked choice voting (RCV) in mayoral elections, purporting to show that RCV reduces voter turnout overall, increases voter errors, and has a negative impact on “marginal populations,” i.e. racial minorities, mainly as the result of the alleged complexity of RCV asking voters to rank candidates and having to be familiar with multiple candidates and related dynamics. McDaniel reached these conclusions by examining five San Francisco mayoral elections taking place in odd years (i.e. where there are no federal or state races on the ballot) from 1995 to 2011, comparing three earlier non-RCV races (in 1995, 1999 and 2003) with the later two RCV races (in 2007 and 2011). Only two RCV races were studied, and as McDaniel acknowledged, only the contest in 2011 was “competitive” (that contest in 2007 was the first mayoral election using RCV, and incumbent mayor Gavin Newsom won easily in the first round of counting, earning 74% of first choices and far ahead of the second place candidate who had just 6.3% of first choices). Yet even the allegedly competitive contest in 2011was won by an incumbent with a landslide margin of nearly 20 points. No other elections were studied by McDaniel, even though San Francisco elects 17 other offices besides mayor with RCV, including the 11 seats on the Board of Supervisors (the name for the city council) in even years, and six other citywide offices in odd years. Previous academic research has found that competitive elections can stimulate greater voter involvement and higher turnout. For unexplained reasons, this study ignored at least 34 other RCV races between the years 2004 to 2011, many of which were very competitive and had high voter turnout. Instead, McDaniel’s analysis based its conclusions on data from only a single, marginally-competitive mayor’s race using RCV. These 2007 and 2011 mayoral elections were the only two RCV elections that McDaniel used as the sole basis for his small data set to determine the impact of RCV on voter turnout. Despite having no meaningful data to inform his study, McDaniel nonetheless concluded that RCV lowered turnout when compared to the previous three mayoral non-RCV elections using two-round runoffs. Then, using the same inadequate database of San Francisco elections, McDaniel also found that “Instant-runoff voting is associated with a significant decline in Black voter turnout and White voter turnout…On average, Black voter turnout decreases by 18 points and White voter turnout decreases by 16 points …” But how could he credibly arrive at that conclusion when his study was based on voter turnout in two RCV contests that were not even remotely competitive? Beyond that, McDaniel tacitly admits that the key determining factor driving Black voter turnout was not RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable Black candidate. McDaniel wrote, “Black voter turnout was about 17 percentage points higher for the two elections that featured an African American candidate compared to the three elections that did not” — but one of those three elections did not use RCV. The same dynamic was present for White voter turnout, in which higher turnout was not correlated with RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable White candidate. Beyond that, McDaniel’s voter turnout results, whether correlated with the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections, showed no clear patterns. In his Figure 1, he shows low Asian voter turnout in the non-RCV elections in 1999 and 2003 when there was no viable Asian candidate running, but in the 2007 mayoral election using RCV, there is still no viable Asian candidate, yet Asian turnout increases dramatically. For Latinos, voter turnout is virtually the same in 1999 (no viable Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2003 (leading Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2007 (no viable Latino candidate, RCV elections) and 2011 (leading Latino candidate, RCV elections). Meanwhile White voter turnout increased dramatically from a low in the 2007 mayoral election, in which the leading candidate was a white incumbent, to the 2011 election in which there were no leading white candidates that finished any higher than sixth place with 5.6% of the vote. Clearly other factors were determining voter turnout than either the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections. Despite these inconsistent findings, McDaniel boldly marches forth to render conclusions about the impact of RCV on different groups of racial voters, even though his conclusions are not remotely supported by his data. This looks like the worst kind of “data cherry picking” to cover up a puzzling conclusion based on a poor data set involving only two RCV elections, neither of which were remotely competitive. McDaniel’s cherry picking didn’t stop there. In calculating voter turnout for the three non-RCV mayoral elections in 1995, 1999 and 2003, he failed to mention that in each of these years there was a two-round runoff election, with a first round election in November in which no candidate garnered a winning majority of the vote, followed by the decisive runoff in December. So there were two non-RCV elections in each election year. But McDaniel only decided to include one of the two elections in his data set, apparently the December runoff in each year (which had higher turnout in two out of the three mayor’s races, and lower turnout in the third). So he ignored the November 1995 election, the November 1999 election when turnout was only 45 percent, and the November 2003 election when turnout was only 45.7 percent. This is flawed methodology based on blatant cherry picking, since McDaniel simply omitted three elections worth of data that did not fit within his frame. His study should never have made it through a peer review process, and it is an embarrassment to political science that not only was it approved for publication, but it has been uncritically cited by dozens of other political scientists. Share A “study” without wider context or credible data Lacking a data set that included even a single competitive RCV mayoral race, McDaniel declared that RCV lowered voter turnout in 2011, when turnout was 42.5 percent. But he also ignored -- or did not realize -- that voter turnout in mayoral elections during 2011 had sharply declined in all big cities, including far more steeply in nearby Los Angeles and other cities. In fact, San Francisco’s election in 2011 had the second highest turnout of any mayoral election in the nation’s 22 largest cities from 2008-2011. Was 2011 just a particularly low turnout year all across the country, perhaps because the country was still reeling from the aftermath of the housing market collapse in 2008-2010? McDaniel ignored this factor and did not search for alternative explanations beyond his flawed thesis. Furthermore, while McDaniel suggested that RCV leads to more “overvotes” – which is an invalidated ballot in which a voter, in either a non-RCV or RCV race, makes a mistake and selects two candidates for a single choice – he failed to address that in the June 2012 US Senate primary contest, which used the typical “one-choice” plurality method and did not use RCV, there was more than five times as many overvotes in San Francisco and Oakland than in the RCV mayoral elections in those cities. Additionally, turnout had been significantly higher and more representative in RCV elections for the San Francisco Board of Supervisors races -- that McDaniel didn’t even bother to study -- as compared to previous “delayed two-round runoffs” for those offices, often higher by as much as 40% in the RCV races. Perhaps the most surprising irony was that an earlier study co-authored by McDaniel (Overvoting and the Equality of Voice under Instant-Runoff Voting in San Francisco by Francis Neely and Jason McDaniel, 2015, California Journal of Politics and Policy) found that overvotes are often more common in lower-income precincts, but that the pattern of overvoting is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. Wrote Neely and McDaniel: “[Overvote] errors appear to be a function of complexity in general and not IRV per se…. the pattern of overvoting is similar in both IRV and non-IRV contests…Even among votes cast in a top-of-the-ticket race like U.S. Senate, overvoting occurs in an uneven fashion” (IRV, or ‘instant runoff voting,’ is another name for ranked choice voting in single-winner contests). So McDaniel not only contradicted his own conclusion in his earlier study with Neely, but the earlier study had been an important corrective for one of the most frequently made mistakes made by anti-RCV political scientists – a continual failure to provide crucial context by pairing a comparative analysis of real world RCV elections with an analysis of real world plurality or other electoral methods. Unfortunately McDaniel’s earlier study does not get cited much by other researchers, and McDaniel did not even cite it in his own flawed study analyzed above. Incredibly, McDaniel cherrypicked McDaniel, even as his flawed study has been cited dozens of times. Despite being a textbook example of poor political “science,” featuring both inadequate as well as cherrypicked data, the shelf life of McDaniel’s study has been extended endlessly by other political scientists and media outlets who have cited it uncritically. Equally troubling, the Journal of Urban Affairs put this paper through its peer review process and published it despite its numerous flaws. McDaniel gets it wrong, Part II Not content with producing one shoddy, confused paper, McDaniel produced another one a few years later, here is the link: Electoral Rules and Voter Turnout in Mayoral Elections: An Analysis of Ranked-Choice Voting by Jason McDaniel. San Francisco State Univ. (McDaniel, 2019). In this paper, McDaniel extended his previous flawed research focused on San Francisco, about voter turnout and voter impact, to multiple RCV cities through the 2018 elections. In his data set he included San Francisco, Minneapolis, St Paul, Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro and Santa Fe. He then compared their turnout in mayoral elections to non-RCV cities, and to mayoral elections in those cities held before first RCV usage, and concluded “a significant decrease in voter turnout of approximately 3–5 percentage points in RCV cities after the implementation of RCV.” But he replicated many of the same mistakes as his first study presented above. While in this study McDaniel attempted to distinguish between various factors, such as odd year vs. even year elections, competitive races vs. noncompetitive, contests with open seats and other factors, the analysis is superficial and inadequate. He attempts to incorporate so many often-conflicting variables that his conclusions are once again unsupported by the actual data, and ultimately unconvincing (this second study never underwent a peer review process). For example, McDaniel declared that for RCV cities “in elections that are more competitive than average (margin of victory less than 20%), there is no significant RCV effect on voter turnout.” Yet McDaniel is a professor in a city, San Francisco, in which the 2018 special election using RCV to fill a mayoral vacancy was exceedingly close, decided by a margin of only one percentage point, and resulted in the second highest turnout in San Francisco history for a mayoral election. Illustrating the complexity involved in assessing the critical factors in turnout, that special election was held on the same election day as federal and state offices, which tends to boost turnout. Yet more voters participated in that RCV mayoral election than voted on the same day in the non-RCV primary for governor in which former San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom was running. Even more puzzling, in this study McDaniel inaccurately cited his own previous study from 2015 with Neely. McDaniel wrote, “Neely and McDaniel (2015) examine individual ballot image files within a natural experiment, and find higher rates of ballot errors in RCV elections compared to non-RCV elections” (emphasis added). However, we quoted from that 2015 study several paragraphs above, and in actual fact Neely and McDaniel actually concluded the opposite -- that the pattern of overvoting – which is the most common form of ballot error – is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. McDaniel also ignored the fact that in Bay Area RCV elections held in even years – at the same time as federal and state elections, when turnout is highest -- the “undervote” (that is, the dropoff in ballots cast for governor or mayor) has declined, which contradicts his thesis that the act of ranking ballots in RCV elections is too complex and presents a barrier for certain demographics of voters. To his credit, McDaniel actually acknowledged another contradiction in his own paper, which found a negative RCV turnout effect in some odd-year elections but not others, admitting that “may present a challenge to the theory that increased complexity [from RCV] will have a marginal negative effect on voter turnout.” But he tried to wallpaper over that contradiction by blaming it on an unlikely source -- bad election administration. McDaniels wrote, “This would suggest that the negative impact of RCV on voter participation may be alleviated by high quality election administration,” without presenting any data or even anecdotes to support such an unfounded theory. While competent election administration of any election, whether RCV or non-RCV, is crucially important, there is no credible research that supports the far-fetched notion that the quality of election administration has much of an impact on voter turnout in US elections, whether using RCV or otherwise. Upgrade to a $5 subscription The unvirtuous circle of academic research It is puzzling how McDaniel’s first study could have survived the peer review process for the Journal of Urban Affairs. The mistakes in McDaniel’s first study above should have been obvious to anyone with a basic understanding of ranked choice voting as well as elections in general, and elections in San Francisco specifically. It undermines faith in the credibility of the peer review process to think that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the egregious errors and reject McDaniel’s sloppy research and paper. And it remains a black mark on political science that this thoroughly discredited study has been cited dozens of times by other researchers. Indeed, in our research paper it became apparent that many political scientists cite each other’s flawed research to pad their list of citations and to legitimize their own flawed research, creating an unvirtuous circle of political science. More broadly, McDaniel’s voter turnout studies, like other studies evaluating RCV’s impact on turnout, lacked a recognition that no credible opinion or research can claim that RCV increases voter turnout merely because so many voters are excited to vote for their favorite candidates instead of “lesser evil” candidates without worrying about spoilers. Instead, with respect to turnout, the advantage of RCV has always been that, in most places where it has been used, it has eliminated a pre-November primary or post-November runoff, which usually saw about half the turnout of the November general election. This is especially true during even years when there are state and federal elections on the ballot which substantially drive turnout more than local contests. Any study that does not adequately account for this non-November primary/runoff vs November general election dynamic, or odd year vs even year election factors, is simply not credible. Both of McDaniel’s studies largely failed on those grounds. Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to a $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS…your digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
A SpaceX rocket is about to crash into the moon—scientists will be watching
Astronomers have a plan to observe an errant piece of a SpaceX rocket as it hits the moon to better understand impact events
Science can serve dark as well as light
I’m not sure how many of you are watching “Star City,” Apple TV’s spin-off of its “For All Mankind” program (2019-present), but it’s one of the better sci-fi series I’ve seen in a while, with an impressively dark political message. (Some light spoilers below.) For the uninitiated, “For All Mankind” presented a slightly tweaked history of the U.S. space program in which it was the USSR that landed on the Moon first in 1969, and shortly thereafter put a woman cosmonaut on the lunar surface. This sparks an ongoing space race that, in the original series, yields a lot of benefits for humanity. President Nixon’s insistence on a female astronaut corps to compete with the Soviets boosts the feminist movement of the 1970s and the ERA passes. New fuels generated for the space program create clean and cheap energy around Earth. There are also some darker changes — the USSR is thriving well into the 2000s, there are terrorist counter-technology movements around the globe, laborers on Mars work in nightmarish conditions and organize strikes and riots, etc. the @smotus report is a reader-supported publication. To support this work, please become a paid subscriber. Subscribe That show offers glimpses into the subtle ways this Earth is different. Teddy Kennedy never went to Chappaquidick because he was racing back to Washington to deal with the space program crisis; he gets elected President in 1972. John Lennon survives his early 1980s shooting but Pope John Paul II does not. The Apple Newton succeeded. Pretty much the whole of season 4 is a setup for an Al Gore joke. Again, mostly, the vision that “For All Mankind” presents is a positive one, with technology advancing many human interests. “Star City” goes in a very different direction. This spin-off show is about the same set of events but from the Soviet perspective. As we meet them, the team of scientists and cosmonauts responsible for the lunar landing are still basking in their hero status, but their program is embedded deep in the Soviet security state of the late 1960s. Everyone’s apartment is bugged. Whole teams of clerical staff spend their days transcribing recordings of people’s lives. People in the program, including respected cosmonauts, are regularly arrested. An incredibly menacing Colonel Lyudmilla Raskova (Anna Maxwell Martin) forces confessions and tortures and kills, expressing little more than annoyance in the process. Meanwhile, the space program’s highly respected Chief Designer (Rhys Ifans) has a vision for the program that he knows the government will not approve. He insists that they need to think past the Moon to focus on colonizing the solar system, starting with Venus. (This is a rough parallel to the Americans’ pivot to Mars in the original show.) He essentially builds a secret space program within the space program, calculating that the government will embrace the mission after it has succeeded. (As an aside, I’m not sure why the Venus obsession, as a successful mission can’t produce the biggest public relations payoff: a cosmonaut standing on the surface holding the Soviet flag. Anyone standing on Venus would be immediately crushed by the 92-bar atmosphere and then cremated in the 900°F temperatures. But in a country with no free press perhaps the visual payoff was less valued.) But the overall vision is that the technological advances have only amplified the most fearsome aspects of the Soviet system. The state is paranoid (but not incorrect) about American spies and does monstrous things to protect its secrets. People are terrified to trust each other. Classic banality-of-evil figures order people to harm those they care about; those people comply rather than get shot. Others are forced into criminal behavior to protect loved ones. We’re reminded all the time these days of what happens when a government despises science. It manifests in the defunding of schools, the elevation of fossil fuels as the rest of the world pivots to solar, outbreaks of measles and diarrhea, etc. But “Star City” offers a vision of a bad government that likes science. It’s not encouraging. It’s not yet clear if there will be a season two of this show. But I strongly recommend season one. It’s both thoughtful and gripping. Share
‘Complete shock and dismay’: scientists unite against Trump’s $1tn grant attack
OMB proposal would upend entire grant-making system – and put vast sums into hands of political appointees
Scientists have found an ancient sea worm with jaws made from a mysterious 'bio-metal' never encountered before, a discovery that could rewrite what we know about nature
Imagine you’re playing “20 Questions” and you start with the classic opener: “Animal, vegetable, or mineral?” Most of the time, a sea worm would be an easy answer: animal. But one particular marine species, the ancient and still-living bristle worm Perinereis cultrifera, complicates that simple choice.
A Quebecer noticed a strange circular pit on Google Maps while planning a trip; scientists have now confirmed it is a 390-million-year-old meteorite impact crater
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WAIC explainer: What is AI for Science?
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Seven peptides are under review by an FDA panel this week. Here’s everything we know
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An asteroid shattered near Jupiter’s gravitational gateway 800 million years ago; scientists say the debris may have bombarded Earth for 150 million years
A massive asteroid that broke apart around 800 million years ago may have sent a huge number of rocky fragments towards Earth, the Moon and Mars, according to a new study led by researchers at the Southwest Research Institute.
As koalas disappear in Australia, scientists build a frozen genetic lifeline
Infertility means fewer joeys are being born, making it harder for populations to recover naturally.
Al-altered images on birdwatching forums putting research at risk
Experts warn increase in enhanced photos on birding platforms creating fake sightings, threatening credibility of tool used by scientists
Even scientists need a doctor sometimes. Colorado physician makes house call to Greenland.
The CU doctor was there for checkups on researchers working at the cold and icy Summit Station.
AI may predict harmful chemical exposures affecting human health
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How eczema and acne can affect your mental health
Scientists are uncovering a complex communication network linking the skin, immune system, and brain—one that could transform how chronic skin disease and mental health are treated.
Do You Have to Be Fancy to Get Published in “Science”?
No, not necessarily. But scientists who work for a prestigious university are three times more likely than their peers who don’t to get published in the top-tier journal, according to a new independent analysis of Science’s manuscript data.
What Can Senior and Early-Career Researchers Learn From Each Other?
For an early-career researcher, having a more senior mentor or co-author can teach valuable skills. But senior scientists can also learn lessons from early-career “disruptors,” who introduce new techniques and perspectives.
Scientists discover a protein that protects the brain from Alzheimer’s damage
A protein called SORLA may act as a powerful defense against the toxic tau tangles involved in Alzheimer’s disease. Mice with extra SORLA had less tau accumulation, less brain atrophy, and healthier connections between neurons, while mice without it experienced more severe damage. The findings also revealed a possible drug target that could help control harmful activity in supporting brain cells.
What scientists felt when approaching Egyptian mummies will truly shock you - Futura-Sciences
The Surprising Role of Scents in Ancient Egyptian Burial Rites In ancient Egypt, smell was far from a trivial detail: it was a crucial part of funerary rituals. Pleasant fragrances were linked to the gods and purity, while foul odors were a direct reminder of decay and death. For Egyptians,...
Rejuvenation science: Rewinding biological clock works for mice, not yet for humans
THE QUEST TO LIVE LONGER, fuller lives has captivated humanity for millennia. In lab mice, scientists have spent about a century studying the cellular
Harvard Scientists Turned a Silicon Chip Into a DNA Factory
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Scientists Finally Worked Out Why Some Hair Is Curly – And It Starts Beneath The Skin
The science is tricky to untangle.
Watch a Mad Scientist YouTuber Make Lightning in a Bottle From Mercury and Neon
Yes, of course it's Styropyro.
Scientists used children’s ‘silly sprinklers’ to solve a physics problem Richard Feynman could not; the reverse version spins 50 times slower
If you’ve ever watched a “silly sprinkler” in action (those bright, looping contraptions that twist and spray water in wild patterns) you’ve probably just seen them as summer fun. But a group of mathematicians have turned these backyard toys into tools for solving a famous physics puzzle that stumped even Nobel Prize–winning physicist Richard Feynman.
Citizen Scientists Helped Decipher How Harvestmen Became Oddly Devoted Dads
Paternal care is vanishingly rare in the animal kingdom, yet one spider relative pulls it off repeatedly across thousands of species. Unlocking why required a surprising shortcut that compressed decad...
In 1970, Soviet scientists began drilling into the Kola Peninsula and eventually reached 12,262 metres — creating the deepest vertical borehole humans have ever made, yet barely scratching the surface of Earth’s crust
I had always filed the Kola Superdeep Borehole under facts that sound impressive but do not tell you much: the Soviet Union drilled 12,262 meters into the
Plants that make real dairy protein? Scientists discover an unexpected shortcut
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UCLA scientists develop mineral sunscreen without the chalky white cast
Scientists have redesigned zinc oxide particles to create a mineral sunscreen that protects against ultraviolet radiation without leaving such a noticeable white cast. The SPF 30 formula could make sunscreen easier and more appealing to use across a wider range of skin tones.
Scientists found two powerful new ways to destroy forever chemicals
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Have Scientists Built a Cell from Scratch?
According to recent news headlines, the curiously named SpudCell can feed, grow, reproduce, and undergo selection.
A tiny universe in a bottle reveals clues to the origins of life
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Scientists Studying Earth's Flowering Plants Issue a Stark Warning to Humanity
Here's just how much we stand to lose.
Scientists Studying Earth's Flowering Plants Issue a Stark Warning to Humanity
Here's just how much we stand to lose.
Scientists told them, 'No, it's too dangerous,' but they did it anyway: Inside Japan's super-close asteroid flyby
A last-minute proposal saw Hayabusa2 whizz within just 800 meters of a near-Earth asteroid.
Scientists are regrowing human teeth
While teeth play a greater role in health than many realise, current dental solutions for tooth loss are temporary and subpar. What if we could regrow our teeth instead?
Scientists are regrowing human teeth
While teeth play a greater role in health than many realise, current dental solutions for tooth loss are temporary and subpar. What if we could regrow our teeth instead?
Scientists reveal the rare type of space rock that wiped out dinosaurs
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Coffee may help the body fight stress and aging through a hidden cellular switch
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