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TXSE pulls from Jane Street, blockchain, D-FW business for new leaders
The upstart exchange announced its board of directors, while its parent company TXSE Group named a CFO.
Politics in park prove positive
More than 30 political candidates descended upon Cody for Politics in the Park, drawing voters from around the basin for the opportunity to meet, learn and voice their concerns.
The aluminum iPhone 17 Pro dents easily, so Apple has another replacement in mind
Aluminum didn't really work out for the iPhone 17, so Apple is heading back to the drawing board.
Maryville Memorial Day event to open Legion pavilion
A ribbon-cutting is planned for 5 p.m. before live music begins.
Trump’s Taiwan ‘negotiating chip’ remark sparks alarm over how far he'd shift US-China policy
Trump suggests $14 billion Taiwan weapons package could be used as leverage in China negotiations, drawing swift pushback from Taiwan's president.
Texas politics has a bigger antisemitism problem than District C
Joe Panzarella’s runoff win came despite a late attack over a CAIR endorsement, but other Texas candidates deserve far more serious scrutiny over antisemitism, writes Opinion Editor Evan Mintz.
New MatterChat Model Helps AI to ‘See’ the Language of Science
From writing emails to generating computer code, much of the artificial intelligence prevalent in our daily lives has succeeded by mastering one domain: text. However, this leaves a major blind spot in the physical sciences, where models depend on the high-resolution, three-dimensional data of the physical world, like the intricate lattice of atoms in a crystal. Delivering on the promise of using AI for science requires teaching these data-driven text models to seamlessly “talk to” physics-based models. Now, a new AI framework from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab), called MatterChat, solves this problem by creating a specialized “bridge.” It connects the conversational power of a Large Language Model (LLM) with a physics-based AI that models “interatomic potentials”: the complex physical forces between atoms. The resulting system already significantly outperforms general-purpose AI tools like GPT-4 at predicting material properties, and the team hopes it can accelerate scientific discovery by serving as a robust research partner that provides grounded insights and generates step-by-step instructions for synthesizing novel materials. A paper describing this work was recently published in Nature Machine Intelligence. “Traditional simulations can provide the physical rigor required for materials science, yet their computational cost remains prohibitive for high-throughput screening. Conversely, while LLMs excel at rapid knowledge synthesis, they inherently lack the ‘structural vision’ to interpret materials directly from their underlying atomic coordinates,” said Yingheng Tang, a postdoctoral researcher in Berkeley Lab’s Applied Math and Computational Research Division (AMCR) and lead author on the paper. “MatterChat was built to solve this dilemma, empowering LLMs with a structural ‘vision’ that allows researchers to leverage their full potential for solving complex, real-world materials challenges.” Empowering language models to solve complex challenges in materials science To build MatterChat, the Berkeley Lab team drew inspiration from technologies like Vision Question Answering (VQA) and Text-to-Image (T2I) generation. In these tasks, AI must translate high-level text concepts into visual images, or vice versa. Doing so requires developers to build tools that “bridge” two fundamentally different forms of data. The researchers adapted this concept to the physical sciences. With MatterChat, they created a “bridge model” that successfully connects an LLM’s general knowledge with the deep understanding of the atomic-scale world encoded in scientific interatomic potentials. Until now, researchers using LLMs to solve materials problems usually had to feed them raw data files as if they were just strings of text. It’s like asking an AI to understand a complex 3D engine based only on a parts list: the LLM can read the names, but it can’t “see” how the atoms fit together in space. MatterChat solves this by training a specialized AI bridge model, pre-trained on millions of crystal structures and an LLM, to align the LLM’s representation of the world with the interatomic potential’s representation of the world. The bridge model can translate physical insights into a format the LLM can actually understand. By giving the LLM these “scientific eyes”— a scientific “inductive bias” in the terminology of AI — the Berkeley Lab team has transformed it into a robust research tool capable of providing grounded scientific insights into complex materials challenges, such as predicting thermal stability or analyzing electronic band gaps. “We think of atoms as living in a physical space, but from a machine learning perspective, they are just vectors living in some very non-trivially structured manifold in a high-dimensional Euclidean space; and, of course, the same is true for the sentences and paragraphs that we use to express our ideas about those atoms,” said co-author Michael Mahoney, Berkeley Lab’s Scientific Data Division (SDD) AI Initiative Research Lead. “The bridge model basically gets those two structures to ‘talk with’ each other.” As a proof-of-concept of this general approach, the team trained their bridge model on a dataset curated by pairing nearly 143,000 stable atomic structures from the Materials Project with their corresponding physical properties. This training data was automatically assembled using the Materials Project’s API and deliberately enriched with properties fundamental to microelectronics design — like formation energy and bandgap — allowing MatterChat to learn the complex patterns connecting a material’s atomic blueprint to its functional performance. To validate their model, the researchers benchmarked MatterChat against a suite of other AI systems, from general-purpose LLMs to other specialized scientific AI methods. The results show that MatterChat consistently outperformed its competitors across a range of tasks. The model was more accurate in classifying material types and demonstrated superior precision in predicting numerical properties. For example, it excelled at predicting a material’s bandgap, a property critical for designing new electronics from high-capacity energy storage to next-generation computer chips. “Our design is significantly more efficient because we don’t have to build a massive AI model from the ground up,” said co-author Zhi (Jackie) Yao, a research scientist in Berkeley Lab’s AMCR. “Instead, we take two powerful, pre-trained models — a structural encoder for materials physics and an open-source LLM — and use them off-the-shelf. The only component we actually train is the lightweight ‘bridge model’ that translates between them. It’s the difference between building an entire car factory and simply designing a smart adapter that connects a world-class engine to a world-class navigation system. This approach is not only computationally efficient, but also makes the system modular, so we can easily upgrade components or adapt the bridge for other scientific domains in the future.” Crucially, this modular design highlights exactly how institutions like Berkeley Lab and the Department of Energy are carving out a highly valuable niche in the booming AI landscape. Rather than competing with Silicon Valley tech giants to build ever-larger language models from scratch, the lab is focusing on the specialized connective tissue that makes commercial AI useful for hardcore science. Because the bridge model approach underlying MatterChat is forward-compatible, it is perfectly positioned to leverage these parallel tracks of innovation. As Mahoney pointed out, “We expect that industry will continue to develop improved LLMs, and we expect domain scientists and facilities will continue to generate new data. An important part of scientific machine learning is not simply to solve problems on today’s data, but instead to develop general methods that will be forward-compatible with orders of magnitude more data, whether from scientific domains or from LLMs.” According to Yao, the MatterChat project, which was initially developed and enhanced with funding from a Berkeley Lab Laboratory Directed Research & Development (LDRD) Program, will now expand its capabilities. In a collaboration with Fermilab, MatterChat is already contributing to a U.S. Department of Energy Genesis Mission project — called Accelerating eXtreme Environment Specs-to-Silicon (AXESS) — that aims to speed up the development of next-generation, high-speed, radiation-hardened detectors for challenging particle physics experiments by using advanced 3D integrated circuits (chiplets) and AI-driven data analysis. In addition to the LDRD support, the team also credits supercomputing resources at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), located at Berkeley Lab, with MatterChat’s success. “We are incredibly grateful to NERSC; this research simply would not have happened without access to the Perlmutter supercomputer through their AI for Science program,” said Tang. Wenbin Xu, a NERSC postdoctoral fellow at the time, was also a major co-author of the work, as was Benjamin Erichson, a research scientist in Berkeley Lab’s SDD, highlighting the benefits of AMCR-SDD collaboration on AI for science. ### Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) is committed to groundbreaking research focused on discovery science and solutions for abundant and reliable energy supplies. The lab’s expertise spans materials, chemistry, physics, biology, earth and environmental science, mathematics, and computing. Researchers from around the world rely on the lab’s world-class scientific facilities for their own pioneering research. Founded in 1931 on the belief that the biggest problems are best addressed by teams, Berkeley Lab and its scientists have been recognized with 17 Nobel Prizes. Berkeley Lab is a multiprogram national laboratory managed by the University of California for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Science. DOE’s Office of Science is the single largest supporter of basic research in the physical sciences in the United States, and is working to address some of the most pressing challenges of our time. For more information, please visit energy.gov/science.
What’s top of mind for your business owner clients right now
Drawing on findings from the 2026 Principal® Business Owner Insights survey, this panel discussion covers the evolving priorities shaping financial planning decisions.
From the Editor: It’s no lie — running a business is hard work
Why do so many small business owners feel like they have to crawl through barbed wire to make it all work?
The booming business of anti-California merch
Being anti-California has become a business.
Xavier Becerra faces attacks from all sides in Calif. governor's race
Becerra came under fire last week for his link to a recent fraud scandal.
View: Why we need to domesticate Africa’s health algorithm
As AI transforms medicine, African countries risk becoming the raw material for a revolution whose benefits flow elsewhere.
Schroders to leave China fund management business
Schroders is withdrawing from its wholly owned fund operation in China and has agreed to transfer its products to Neuberger Berman.
Kenyan scientist advances energy storage research in Germany
A Kenyan scientist in Germany is using advanced microscopy to study how batteries work at the atomic level—research that could lead to longer-lasting batteries while reducing the need for scarce raw materials.
Axios C-Suite: What Jim learned for the week of May 16
It looks like both parties will try to redraw districts yearly instead of once a decade.
The Supreme Court’s Voting Rights Decision Spurred Swift Action in Louisiana and Alabama
The timing brought the court into the middle of a fight to redraw voting maps across the South, even as some primaries were underway.
L.A. Fitness, J. Crew among businesses opening in CT
The latest Connecticut retail news includes a gym closure at Connecticut Post Mall and a Branford restaurant shutting down.
Evaluating Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) After A Sharp Share Price Pullback
Recent performance snapshot for Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) has drawn investor attention after a period of weaker share performance, with the stock down about 16% over the past month and roughly 25% over the past 3 months. See our latest analysis for Flutter Entertainment. The recent decline has been steep, with the share price down 57.68% year to date and the 1 year total shareholder return falling 62.95%. This points to fading momentum as investors...
Winvia Entertainment agrees Rev Comps acquisition to expand UK prize draw operations (WVIA)
Winvia Entertainment (LSE:WVIA) has entered into an agreement to acquire the trade, business and selected assets of Rev Comps, a family-operated UK digital prize draw platform. The acquisition will be financed entirely from the company’s existing cash resources.
Cambridge Science Park launches £3bn expansion plan
Hub for scientific and tech innovation aims to triple in size over next 30 years
Executive education challengers raise pressure on business schools
New rivals are driving traditional institutions to double down on their USP — or adapt and partner with them
A Look At Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) Valuation After Recent Share Price Momentum
What recent performance says about Live Nation Entertainment stock Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) has drawn fresh attention after a period of steady share price movement, with the stock up 7.9% over the past month and 6.7% over the past 3 months. For investors tracking momentum and business fundamentals, those returns sit alongside reported annual revenue of US$25.6b and a reported net loss of US$410.3m, highlighting a mix of scale and ongoing profitability challenges. See our latest...
Five Points businesses say IRONMAN road closures hurt access, customers; city promises better communication
Jacksonville’s first-ever IRONMAN brought nearly 2,000 competitors to a route spanning parts of Duval and St. Johns counties this weekend, drawing crowds downtown, and prompting widespread complaints about traffic, road closures and access issues in neighborhoods like Riverside’s Five Points.
Business investment growth in UK is less than half pace of US
There has been a widening divergence between the two economies since 2019
Video: Cassidy Loses Primary After Drawing Trump’s Ire
Republican Senator Bill Cassidy lost his Louisiana primary on Saturday after President Trump targeted him for voting to impeach him in 2021. The two-term senator took veiled swipes at the president in his concession speech.
Hoopaholic’s Gazette: The Waiting Game
From the moment of my fist keystroke here, there are 10 days, 10 hours and 34 minutes until the NBA Draft withdrawal deadline for college underclassman, those wishing to continue their undergraduate eduction at an institution of higher learning. Flory Bidunga, you are on the clock. And now the Louisville Cardinal fanbase, after enduring a […]
Sames, local organizations recognized at Laredo Chamber awards
Evelyn Sames, Clear Choice Emergency Room and other local leaders were recognized during the Business Icons Awards in Laredo.
Donald Trump Jr’s VC firm flaunts political edge in investment push
1789 Capital is seeking to grow its assets to $10bn after building sprawling AI portfolio
New Orleans novelist draws on his experience in group homes for new novel
Joe Bond’s debut novel draws on his youth around group homes in Kentucky, portraying troubled teens’ lives in care during the 1980s.
Union offers no-cost health care to members in Latham
United Association Local 7 held a grand opening for its new health clinic for union members and their families at the Capital Region Health Park in Latham on Saturday.
India’s loudest political fight obscures a more urgent one
The country’s collapsing cities could benefit from plans to redraw the electoral map
How Investors May Respond To PENN Entertainment (PENN) Cutting Jobs In Its Interactive Division
PENN Entertainment recently announced it will cut more than 75 roles in its Interactive division, as operators across the sports betting industry respond to competitive and technological pressures including AI-enabled platforms and prediction markets drawing customers away from traditional sportsbooks. This restructuring highlights how PENN is reassessing the cost structure and scale of its digital betting operations at a time when its long-term plans rely heavily on improving profitability...
Letters – President Trump, media vitriol and political violence
Readers respond to a column by Talmage Boston on the media, assassinations and unhinged rage
‘Never-ending’ AI slop strains corporate hacking reward schemes
‘Bug bounty’ programmes have seen a jump in spurious AI-generated submissions
From leadership to succession, executive courses target wealthy families
Short business school programmes are helping scions prepare, moving into territory dominated by banks and advisers
Which players will not compete at the 2026 French Open
Main draw play of the 2026 French Open at Roland Garros, tennis‘ second grand slam of the year, begins on May 24. Between now and then, there may be additional player withdrawals, but the list is already long enough on…
🚨 Chivas - Cruz Azul line-ups confirmed
Chivas face Cruz Azul this afternoon in the second leg of the Clausura 2026 semifinal, a high-intensity clash after the 2-2 draw at Estadio Banorte. Los rojiblancos will play at home today at Estadio ...
NAMIWalks draws hundreds to Raleigh to raise awareness, fight mental health stigma
"You are not alone."
NAMIWalks draws hundreds to Morrisville to raise awareness, fight mental health stigma
"You are not alone."
I've advised ultrawealthy families for decades: 4 ways they stay rich
The CEO of a wealth management software company said hundreds of good decisions over many years is what preserves riches.
What to Watch in Saturday’s Republican Senate Primary in Louisiana
Senator Bill Cassidy, who has drawn President Trump’s ire, is fighting for political survival.
Future of hockey at Bridgeport arena unclear as bidders tour facility
The Wonderland of Ice manager joined the final tour of the municipal entertainment arena for potential new operators now that Islanders hockey is off to Canada.
Tri-state political maps unlikely to change despite national redistricting debate
While a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling has lawmakers in some states talking about redrawing their congressional maps, it’s unlikely Iowa, Illinois or Wisconsin will see any changes ahead of
Trump’s Hormuz ship insurance facility has done $0 business
US president’s $40bn scheme has had zero uptake due to absence of naval escorts through key waterway
The Connecticut high school sports roundup for Friday, May 15
A look around the Connecticut high school sports scene for Friday, May 15, 2026
Supreme Court Upholds Virginia Ruling Rejecting Democrats’ New Voting Map
State officials had asked the justices to step in to allow the state to use a congressional map in the midterms that was drawn by Democrats and recently approved by voters.
Congressman Cohen Announces Plan for His Political Future
WASHINGTON – Congressman Steve Cohen, who has represented Tennessee’s 9th Congressional District for more than 19 years, held a press conference at his office in Washington this morning to announced that he will not be a candidate for any of the newly drawn Congressional seats carved out of the 9th. His majority-Black district was gerrymandered into three Republican-leaning districts by the state General Assembly last week.He made the following statement:
Colin McEnroe (opinion): Peppa Pig invites mudslinging to CT politics
Peppa Pig contributes to Erin Stewart's downfall as a GOP gubernatorial candidate, allowing rival Ryan Fazio to hog the spotlight.
Colin McEnroe (opinion): Peppa Pig invites mudslinging to CT politics
Peppa Pig contributes to Erin Stewart's downfall as a GOP gubernatorial candidate, allowing rival Ryan Fazio to hog the spotlight.
A ‘Devil Wears Prada 2’ Actor’s Performance Is Drawing Backlash — And His Wife Isn’t Staying Quiet
Reviews of "The Devil Wears Prada 2" have been mostly positive, but this one character has divided the film's fans.
Massive $3B sports and entertainment destination proposed near Detroit Metro Airport
Plans call for a sprawling sports and hospitality campus featuring a 9,000- to 11,000-seat arena, an indoor water park, hockey rinks, basketball and volleyball courts, hotels and family entertainment attractions.
Should Your Subscription Business Use Auto-Renew?
Subscription businesses obsess over pricing and churn, but the most consequential strategic choice may be far simpler: whether subscriptions auto-renew or auto-cancel. Drawing on a 1.4 million–person field experiment with a major European newspaper, the authors show that while auto-renewal boosts short-term retention, it suppresses trial sign-ups so sharply that auto-cancel ultimately produces more paying subscribers and higher-quality customers over time. The right approach depends on two factors—whether customers are naturally loyal or variety-seeking, and whether a company is an incumbent defending share or a challenger trying to acquire it—making renewal defaults a competitive strategy decision, not merely an operational setting.
Schroders looks to exit China mutual funds business after just three years
London-listed group is set to be taken over by US-headquartered asset manager Nuveen in £10bn deal
Chartbook 449: Voldemort on Threadneedle street. The Bank of England and the "haunted house" of English politics.
Imagine the scene: In some Harry Potter version of 21st-century London, a group of deathless UK Treasury officials gathered from across the last century huddle over warm pints and glasses of Chardonnay. Around the table there are officials from the 1920s, the 1930s, the 1970s, 2022 and today. Inevitably, in May 2026, the subject of conversation is the disintegration of the current Labour government. Despite its huge majority in parliament, it has been reduced to tatters by catastrophic local election result. These exposed the fact that rather than having a government with a clear popular majority, the UK is like most other modern societies divided into 5 segments each of which commands between 26 and 16 percent of the vote. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the leadership at Nos 10 and 11 Downing Street - where the Prime Minister and the Chancellor (Treasury Secretary) work - seem paralyzed. They are caught between mounting discontent over unfairness and the cost of living, and tough fiscal strictures that push them into making unpopular spending decisions. In the London pub, the Treasury officials from across the ages, can barely hide their satisfaction at the latest display of democratic politics caught in the vice-grip of financial logic. “Remember the mur d’argent and the banker’s ramp?” “Just like yesterday!” There are smirks around the table. Then the representative of 2026 pipes up: “One thing you have to say about the current lot (referring to the latest hapless Labour government), you don’t have to teach them about the bond market!” There is a murmur of ascent from the Treasury Mandarins. The trauma of the fiscal crisis of September-October 2022 sits deep. Back then, in the final stages of Tory decay, a ‘mini budget’ that challenged fiscal orthodoxy led to a brief but fierce panic in one of the oldest government bond markets in the world (aka gilt market). Now all you have to do is to mention the “bond market” to hush debate. [ Paul Mason@paulmasonnews In the name of public service, and as ex-economics editor of BBC Newsnight, I offer to do a zoom call, tonight, with any Labour MP who wants to understand why bond markets do not "fall into line" with governments. 1/ 3:57 PM · May 12, 2026 · 466K Views 224 Replies · 674 Reposts · 3.93K Likes ](https://x.com/paulmasonnews/status/2054229532404519082?s=20) “And the funny thing is”, the young man in the huddle continues, “they don’t even want to talk about … ”. There is a sudden hush. Significant looks are exchanged around the table. About? One of the senior figures puts down his glass with a decisive “clink”. He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named has entered their thoughts. Meanwhile, a few miles away in a grubby pub in Bloomsbury, two conspirators from the camp of Critical Macrofinance huddle over cans of low-alcohol IPA. They look at each other and blurt out loud: “The Bank!” “Everyone in the bloody Labour party is talking about the bond market. But why aren’t they even mentioning … the Bank of England!?” “Why is no one talking about Voldemort?” In Paul Mason’s blogpost, after much chest-thumping about basic fiscal logic, the basic point about the Bank of England is buried in the fine print at #3 in his list of suggestions as to what a radical Labour government might actually be able to do! [ Conflict & Democracy Down with the bond market! Down with gravity! It may seem unfair to focus on Labour MP Paula Barker for her off-the-cuff assertion that the bond market would have to “fall in line” with Andy Burnham, should he replace Keir Starmer as prime minister. But Burnham himself told the New Statesman that Labour had to “get beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond markets… Read more 2 days ago · 100 likes · 3 comments · Paul Mason ](https://htsf.substack.com/p/down-with-the-bond-market-down-with?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web) Back in Bloomsbury they shake their heads and ask: “Didn’t we learn anything from the Eurozone crisis?” Meanwhile, as if summoned to the conversation by some higher force, the “pink pages” announce: “The days of ultra-cheap government borrowing have come to an end” and Martin “Whizzard” Wolf publishes the graph of the season Look at the UK in 2026, perilously positioned on the upper edge of the pack. No wonder no one in London needs any lessons about the “bond market”. But, look again. Imagine how they feel in Rome. What is London’s nightmare in 2026? The nightmare is that you end up like Italy in the early 2010s during the Eurozone crisis. Once comfortably situated in the middle of the pack, watching with horror as your ten-year yields explode to 7 percent and “spreads” become a national nightmare. One of the largest economies in Europe, a founding member of the euro, stigmatized. But the message of the Italian experience is ambiguous. After all, the stigma didn’t last. In 2026, Italy borrows at rates lower not only than the UK but the US. The US, which, as everyone knows, enjoys the “exorbitant privilege” of being the issuer of reserve, safe asets. What kind of magic is this? How did Italy, in the space of fifteen years, go from being good, to bad and back again? Which brings us back to our dissident friends in their Bloombury boozer and their memories of the Eurozone crisis. Italy never was Britain - with its ongoing fiscal deficits. Without interest payments, on primary balance, from 2000 to 2020 Italy ran a tight fiscal ship. Even in 2008 it barely went into deficit and when it was being put on the rack in the early 20210s its primary surplus matched that of austere Germany. So, what happened? How did it end up stigmatized? Of course Italian politics didn’t help. Berlusconi was at the helm and he had legal issues. But amongst friends in the Bloomsbury pub, Berlusconi is a sideshow, the name we whisper to each other is “Trichet”. From 2004 to 2011 the ECB was headed by Jean-Claude Trichet, ex of the French Treasury, more German than the Germans. After 2009 as the news of the Greek fiscal disaster broke, the European bond markets wento into panic mode and Trichet began a brutal game of cat and mouse. Between 2009 and 2011, Trichet intervened in the bond market to help, only when he thought he had compliance with austerity. When he thought they were uncooperative, he withdrew. In the summer of 2011, he even made direct suggestions to his Italian counterparts in Rome, as to how Italy should be governed. It was this cat and mouse game that drove the bond markets crazy and exposed Italy to a violent squeeze. When Mario Draghi took over the ECB at the end of 2011 and declared “whatever it takes”, the pressure on Italy, gradually eased. It is that starring role that has made Draghi into the towering figure in European politics that he remains today. So now you see why voices in London hush when it comes to the Bank of England. “The bond market” isn’t an irresistible objective force like the weather or an avalanche. It can appear like that. But that depends on the way it is being handled, or not handled by the central bank. Which is why the silence about the Bank of England in London right now is so significant. If you think this all sounds a bit fishy, coming from a left-liberal Keynesian like myself, well, let me introduce you to Robin Brooks, who, to put it mildly, plays on a different quidditch team to me. Here, from the position of a fiscal hawk is Robin’s celebratory account of the Bank of England’s role since 2022; In October 2022, at the height of the bond market blow-up in the UK, something incredible happened. Governor Andrew Bailey told British pension funds the Bank of England would end its support program for the country’s fragile gilt market, drawing a line under how much help the central bank was willing to give to exposed pension funds and - implicitly - the government. By the end of that week, Kwasi Kwarteng - the finance minister - had resigned. Prime Minister Liz Truss would soon follow. This episode is so incredible because it contrasts with what happened in the Euro zone earlier that year. Bond markets in Spain and Italy were under pressure amid high inflation and rising interest rates. In the middle of this, Mario Draghi - Italy’s Prime Minister - resigned, compounding pressure on bond markets of high-debt countries on the Euro periphery. Unlike the Bank of England, the ECB caved. It bought Italian and Spanish government bonds in an effort to cap yields and introduced a new tool that signaled to markets it might do such caps more frequently going forward. Faced with pressure on bond markets, the ECB capitulated to political pressure from high-debt countries like Italy and Spain. The Bank of England stood its ground and toppled the Truss government. This kind of thing has long-lasting consequences. It means markets price a higher probability of yield caps in the Euro zone, which keeps Italian and Spanish yields artificially low, while markets feel free to push up UK yields without fear of central bank intervention. As I flagged in yesterday’s post, this means you really can’t compare UK yields to those of other high-debt countries. The UK looks worse, but only because its central bank isn’t interfering with markets. There’s more to this than just that 2022 episode. The Bank of England has also been much more aggressive in its quantitative tightening (QT) than other central banks. If one motivation for quantitative easing (QE) is to lower bond yields - especially longer-dated ones - then it stands to reason QT pushes yields up. The left chart above shows a four-quarter moving average of UK government debt issuance (black line) in percent of GDP and which sectors absorb this issuance, including the Bank of England (blue bars). The right chart above compares the Bank of England’s accumulation or run-off of government bonds (blue line) with that of other central banks, where this blue line is the same as the blue bars in the left chart. The Bank of England was quicker and more aggressive than other central banks in downsizing its bond holdings, so UK yields will have risen more than elsewhere also for this reason, not just because of Governor Andrew Bailey’s remarks in October 2022. Back in October 2025, after a conversation in New York with friends in British politics, my sense of dysphoria was such that I raised the issue of the Bank of England openly in the FT Since 2008, the UK has slid into a deep economic and political predicament. Growth has stagnated to a degree far worse even than in the 1970s. The Tory leadership’s wager on the Brexit referendum spectacularly backfired, leaving the UK isolated from Europe and at the mercy of its special relationship with the US, many of whose political class regard the UK as a basket case. After years of austerity, the Labour party lurched to the left and then back to the centre. The Tory party has been eclipsed by the populist nationalism of Reform. Any British government should be worrying first and foremost about how to restart growth. Instead, Keir Starmer is beset by shades of the gilt market panic triggered by the Liz Truss government in 2022. The debt level is higher than in recent years, but there is no cause for panic. UK debt is at far from critical levels and of long duration. Whether you want to “take back control” or launch progressive economic policy, a democracy dogged by fear of bond market vigilantes is unhealthy. In a country that is a monetary sovereign, this climate points to one thing: a disconnect between the government and the central bank. Since 1997, the independence of the Bank of England has become a sacred cow. But independence is what you make of it. And in the wake of the gilt market crisis of September 2022, relations between the Bank of England and the UK government need a reset. In normal times, there is no doubt that an inflation-targeting independent central bank can serve a country well. But since 2008, the UK and other advanced economies have not had the luxury of such simple problems. To their credit, central bankers around the world have not stood on orthodoxy. After 2008, the US Federal Reserve rescued the global banking system and, through quantitative easing, it stabilised the Treasury market in the face of huge deficits. In Europe, things were trickier. Both the Bank of England under Mervyn King and Jean-Claude Trichet’s European Central Bank played cat and mouse with national governments. This was a high stakes wager that between 2010 and 2012 escalated bond market tension and triggered a disastrous turn to austerity. Shaken by the impact of those shocks, their successors, Mark Carney and Mario Draghi adopted a more protective stance (assuming you were not the government of Greece). Recall that Draghi’s legendary slogan, “Whatever it takes”, was uttered to face down the City of London’s bond vigilantes. In 2015, Draghi launched QE — financial repression by another name. In 2016, Carney used the authority of the Bank of England to stabilise markets following the vote for Brexit, an exemplary demonstration of how central banks can underpin democratic choice, even when those choices are wrong headed. All these were independent central bankers steeped in the best practice of the 1990s, who recognised that historic crises demanded radical action. It was the price surge of 2021-2023 that poisoned the atmosphere. Though the shock came mainly from the supply side, central banks ended up in the dock. Nowhere more so than in the UK. The Bank of England reacted with aggressive normalisation. Faced with a cost of living crisis, the governor called for workers to accept real wage cuts. In early 2022, as gas prices were at record levels and Russia’s army was poised to invade Ukraine, the Bank adopted a stringent programme of quantitative tightening, elevating interest rates. When the Truss government got itself in trouble, the Bank took almost a week to come to the rescue. Rather than enacting a charade of normality, it is time to recognise that in 2025 the UK faces a period of historic transition. To meet this challenge, what is needed is a new concordat with the Bank. This should not ignore inflationary pressures or the long-run trajectory of debt, but should affirm the priority of reviving investment-led growth. One could follow Donald Trump in demanding interest rate cuts. The Bank could shadow the ECB in its commitment to capping Eurozone yields. But the top priority should be to lay the ghost of September 2022. The Bank’s slowing of QT last month was a concession. An immediate and complete end would send the right signal. Such a concordat will not by itself restore sanity to politics, solve the housing problem or rebuild the NHS. But it would help to lift the fear of bond market crisis, which is paralysing the effort by democratic politicians to answer the fundamental questions facing the nation. Now, that call for a new concordat between government and Bank of Englands seems more urgent than ever. The problem is that in October 2025, Starmer still had some authority. Today the government is in tatters. And when you are the “under the harrow” - to echo a phrase of Montagu Norman’s from the 1920s - it is the worst possible time to consider institutional change. To make general arguments at a time of crisis can only seem like special pleading rather than a general argument for long-term change. The same, unfortunately, is also true for the other basic institutional reform that Britain urgently needs i.e. the abolition of the out-dated first past the post electoral system and its replacement by a moderated form of proportional representation. And thirdly - whilst we are saying the quiet parts out loud - Britain needs to reopen the question of EU membership. What the local election results of 2026 show is that this remains a key issue. And what they also show is that there is a clear majority that would favor a return. Until these basic features of Britain’s political economy are addressed the country will carry on its politics as though in a haunted house, governed by governments that lack actual majorities, conjuring up false constraints whilst ignoring the real ones. This one is for DG and MI. I love writing the newsletter. If you enjoy it too and fancy buying me a coffee once a month, you know what to do. Click below! Subscribe
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