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On the California Coast, a Picture-Perfect City Falls on Hard Times
Santa Monica is starting to bounce back from a state of “fiscal distress” including financial woes, declining international tourism and fading retail.
Donald Trump attempts to troll Taylor Swift during wedding weekend with 'America's Eras Tour' posts
The official White House launched a bizarre AI-powered campaign over the weekend during Taylor Swift's wedding to Travis Kelce, which ripped off her record-breaking 'Eras Tour' to tell the story of America.
Go behind the scenes of DE Museum of Nature & Science's research labs
DE Museum of Nature & Science offers behind-the-scenes tours of its Collections & Research lab, as we join the tour for a preview, July 5, 2026.
Kansas' Once-Thriving Railroad Bridge Is Now A Vibrant Entertainment District With River Views And Local Eats
Rock Island Bridge in Kansas City was an abandoned relic of the meatpacking and railway days but now is a buzzy riverfront spot for locals and tourists alike.
Zendaya Wore Jacquemus To ‘The Odyssey’ London Photocall
Zendaya"s Athena-inspired look opens "The Odyssey" press tour.
Funds open for communities on Tour of Britain route
York and North Yorkshire Combined Authority is making cash available to help celebrate the event.
Community-first tourism, country before politics, pursuit of happiness undermined
As Charleston rewrites its tourism management plan for the first time in years, city leaders have emphasized a commitment to residents and local businesses. That's encouraging, but the details matter.
The strangest show on earth: lightning, imperial hubris and a boring tour of Trump’s rhetorical back alleys
Would we get a 21st-century Gettysburg address? Or YMCA, gripes about his legal woes and boasting about Iran?
Everything You Need to Know for Brazil vs. Norway
Everything You Need to Know: Brazil vs. Norway — World Cup Round of 16 Brazil enters Sunday’s FIFA World Cup Round of 16 showdown as one of the tournament favorites, but Norway believes it has the firepower to produce one of the biggest upsets of the knockout stage. Five-time world champion Brazil meets Norway at…
Gukesh, Praggnanandhaa in action at Zagreb Grand Chess Tour: Indian Sports LIVE, July 5
Here are all the updates from Indian sports on July 5, 2026.
ENTERTAINMENT: ‘Moulin Rouge! The Musical’ onstage at WAC
A touring company brings “Moulin Rouge! The Musical” (a jukebox musical featuring tunes from Jacques Offenbach to Lady Gaga with a book by John Logan, based on Baz Luhrmann’s 2001 film) to Fayetteville’s Walton Arts Center.
The agony and ecstasy of the sports fan
On a hot tournament and a very cold streak.
Emma Navarro health issue is revealed at Wimbledon
Tennis fans know that Emma Navarro was dealing with health issues that kept her off the court for a few months. It was serious enough to cause her to miss her home tournament, the Charleston Open. Navarro won the Strousbourg…
Fight them for the beaches: the real villain of Europe’s overtourism is big business
From Albania to Portugal, privatisation of the coastline is bringing locals out on to the streets. For them, the economic benefits are few and far between, says Adam Almeida, a writer living in London
Small businesses say they're having a good summer as Americans travel closer to home
Small business owners in U.S. tourist destinations say they’re seeing more Americans sticking closer to home this summer
Jordan Spieth Warns Sports Betting Could Harm Golf Fan Behavior at Tournaments
Jordan Spieth believes the growth of sports betting is changing fan behavior at golf tournaments and says the issue may soon need to be addressed.
Pickleball tournament raises over $40,000 for community health center
Through three days of pickleball, Elevated Community Health’s 2nd annual Elevated Paddle Battle tournament raised over $40,000. The tournament, which ran from June 26-28 in Breckenridge’s Carter Park, featured 100 players from 12 states, all...
Statues of US presidents' heads are crumbling in rural Virginia
After a Virginia park closed 2010, one man saved 42 presidential statues from being crushed. Now, they're a massive tourist attraction.
Trump jumps on Taylor Swift wedding fever with 'America's Eras Tour'
This weekend is all about Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce – and President Trump. With Swift-Kelce wedding fever gripping New York City and beyond, Trump found a (blank?)
Wimbledon 2026: Tournament director admits giving Serena Williams extra time to recover before doubles match
Serena Williams is getting some extra time to recover from a knee injury.
A Q&A with Graham Nash
Currently on a 2026 U.S. tour, Graham Nash performs with a talented three-piece band and incorporates classics like “Immigration Man” and “Chicago” to resonate with contemporary issues and audiences.
Is the World Cup is helping small businesses in Miami? Fans know what they want
The global soccer tournament is leading to big bucks for Miami businesses.
'Not a carnival sideshow'
A group of leading doubles players accuse the men's ATP Tour of trying to "end doubles as a viable profession".
Wimbledon clings onto fashion traditions, with a twist
Amid fast-changing fashion trends, Wimbledon has remained a bastion of "classy" style, with players and attendees donning their finest whites at the London tennis tournament which some say is reminiscent of traditional British high society.Going to Wimbledon is "fascinating" as it gives "an insight into what the past of British society looked like," according to Daniel-Yaw Miller, a sports and fashion journalist.
Detroit youth gain access to global entertainment industry through Usher internship program
The program placed the interns directly on the R&B tour and four additional participants in awards-show shadowing roles.
Detroit young adults tour with Usher, gain backstage experience in live entertainment
Four Detroit young adults are getting a rare, behind-the-scenes education in the entertainment industry, touring the country with Usher as part of a first-of-its-kind live-touring internship program.
Texas shows travel, tourism at Great American State Fair
Texas is one of the 40 states and territories with a pavilion right on the National Mall.
From The Sports Desk: The U.S. advances, but loses Folarin Balogun to costly red card
The U.S. beat Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-0 to advance to the round of 16, where it will face Belgium next. But the U.S. will be without Balogun, its top goal-scorer of this tournament.
Tourists down ‘Burgers, 10-8, for second straight night
ASHEVILLE, N.C. — Six straight wins. Sole possession of first place in the South Atlantic League Southern Division. And a dominant pitching performance. Wednesday night had everything, and the Asheville Tourists came out on the right side of all of it, beating the Hub City Spartanburgers 10-8 behind a gem from Yeriel Santos and big nights […]
Lil Wayne a no-show for concert that was supposed to kick off his tour
The performance in Bangor, Maine, was set to be the first of his 20 Years of Carter Classics shows.
Lil Wayne a no-show for concert that was supposed to kick off his tour
Rapper Lil Wayne was scheduled to perform Tuesday in Bangor, Maine. But the show ended after opening act 2 Chainz and a DJ performed.
Priced out: The growing cost of live entertainment
Summer tours are trying to fill seats while keeping up with growing ticket prices. Tickets for the Ed Sheeran concert at U.S. Bank stadium are BOGO through the 4th of July, and the Mystic Lake Amphitheater is doing an offer of four tickets for $99 for select concerts. Meanwhile shows like Noah Kahan are having no problem selling tickets with high ticket prices. Music critic for the Star Tribune Chris Riemenschneider joins All Day to talk about the drama around concert tickets.
Rory McIlroy turns heads at Wimbledon by sporting his Masters green jacket at Center Court
Rory McIlroy wore his Masters tournament green jacket to Wimbledon, sitting with wife Erica Stoll and his Ryder Cup teammates at Center Court.
After Supreme Court ruling, Republicans propose banning pregnant foreigners
The proposals follow Tuesday's Supreme Court decision to uphold birthright citizenship
Yui-Gi-Oh Tournament Postponed Because Players Were Too Smelly
A card shop in Oregon had to suspend an even for a week because of reports of poor hygiene
Lionel Richie jokes his 'vitamin pill kicked in' after health scare
Lionel Richie was up and moving in his tour return after a health scare forced him to postpone recent concert dates.
Oregon store suspends Yu-Gi-Oh tournaments due to hygiene concerns
An Oregon game store announced it is suspending Yu-Gi-Oh card game tournaments for one week due to complaints about the hygiene of attendees.
No shower, no go: Oregon card shop halts Yu‑Gi‑Oh tournaments over player hygiene complaints
BEAVERTON (Oregon), July 1 — An independently owned card shop in Beaverton, Oregon, has suspended its Yu‑Gi‑Oh tournaments for a week after receiving multiple complaints and...
Waynesboro offers new grants for local businesses
Waynesboro is offering new grants to help local businesses improve storefronts and boost tourism marketing efforts.
The new Pac-12 Conference officially launches with the addition of seven full-time members
July 1, 2026 — Today, seven new full-time member institutions officially join the Pac-12 Conference, including Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Gonzaga, San Diego State, Texas State and Utah State. With the additions, the new Pac-12 features nine full-time members and is set to compete in its first season with the 2026-27 campaign. The league also officially welcomed 12 new affiliate members today across five Olympic sports, including baseball (Dallas Baptist), men’s soccer (Cal Baptist, Cal Poly, UC Riverside, UC San Diego), women’s gymnastics (Southern Utah), women’s swimming (Cal Baptist) and wrestling (Air Force, Northern Colorado, North Dakota State, Northern Illinois, South Dakota State). In addition to official member admissions and the launch of the new Pac-12, and amid celebrations across new member communities, the league also made a series of other announcements related to its basketball tournaments, its official sports sponsorship and championships and a special edition content series in promotion of its first football season.
Wales rugby quiz: Test your summer tour knowledge
Test yourself with our quiz on Wales' men's past five summer tours.
Mario Kart World 1.7.0 update out now, new Knockout Tour routes added
Mario Kart World has just received a hefty 1.7.0 update. Nintendo Switch 2 users should be seeing the version roll out now. This update brings quite a lot to the table, with the headliner being two new routes in knockout tour. They have also added the ability to use unlocked stickers in photo mode, balance adjustments, and a whole lot...
Mario Kart World version 1.7.0 update now available
Nintendo has released the version 1.7.0 update for Mario Kart World, which adds two new routes to Knockout tour, plus a new feature that lets you place stickers in Photo Mode.
Mario Kart World Has Been Updated To Version 1.7.0, Here Are The Full Patch Notes
New Knockout tours, photo mode update and more
Magic find out group pairings for upcoming NBA Cup
The Magic on Tuesday night drew a compelling group for Group Play of the NBA Cup, the league’s fourth-ever in-season tournament. Orlando was placed in East Group A alongside Detroit, Toronto, Milwaukee and Brooklyn. The tournament — which will consist of two stages including Group Play and the Knockout Rounds — starts Oct. 30 and will end with the title game (Dec. 11) at Hinkle Fieldhouse ...
Atlanta Falcons Players Meet With Fans, Tour Zama During USO Visit
CAMP ZAMA, Japan - Members of the Atlanta Falcons spent time with Soldiers in Camp Zama’s Better Opportunities for Single Soldiers program, or BOSS, Jun...
Card Shop Suspends Yu-Gi-Oh Tournaments Over Smelly Players
An Oregon card shop has halted its Yu-Gi-Oh tournaments for a week after receiving multiple complaints and bad reviews due to smelly players.
Argonne Open House 2026: Science comes to life for visitors
Argonne’s June 27 Open House welcomed more than 8,000 visitors for hands-on science, tours of major research facilities and opportunities to meet researchers across four themes: AI, energy, scientific tools and the universe.
Colorado’s workers can’t afford a decline in tourism
By Terrance Carroll Work is about more than a paycheck. It is about dignity, stability and the ability to build a life, to provide for family, to contribute to community, and to move forward with purpose. That is why we should take a closer look at how federal policy decisions, even those made with good […]
Ariana Grande forced to reschedule shows on her 'Eternal Sunshine' tour
Ariana Grande has rescheduled several shows on her tour. Here's what the pop star had to say about it.
Dave Portnoy discusses whether he'd run for political office
Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy discusses tourists coming to the U.S. for the World Cup, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani's policies and whether he'd ever run for political office on ‘Jesse Watters Primetime.’
2 New Order Members Step Away From Touring Due to Health Reasons
New Order announced Monday that Stephen Morris and Gillian Gilbert will not be joining their show at Primavera in Chile in November.
"It's not gonna be good:' Local business braces for Parkway East closure
Dave Guerin, a Swissvale business owner, shared his concerns about the upcoming 25-day Parkway East closure, citing challenges for deliveries and suppliers navigating detours.
Arkansas basketball coach John Calipari to be inducted into Memphis Sports Hall of Fame
Calipari reached the NCAA Tournament six times with Memphis, including a national runner-up finish in 2008, and won the 2002 NIT title.
Festival in a Box: Amsterdam 2026 Takes the Scenic Route
Festival in a Box: Amsterdam 2026 brings MagicCon home with orange hues, wild beauty, and a scenic detour through the Multiverse.
Danny White earns big bonus for Tennessee bowl, NCAA tournament toward $3.3M pay
Tennessee athletics director Danny White earned $577,500 in annual bonuses to push his total compensation past $3 million as one of the highest paid ADs in the country.
Experts bet World Cup wagers will bring Mass. big tax revenue
Experts say the tournament is on pace to be the biggest sports betting event in history, bringing new revenue to the state. But some fear it carries public health costs, too.
Experts bet World Cup wagers will bring Mass. big tax revenue
Experts say the tournament is on pace to be the biggest sports betting event in history, bringing new revenue to the state. But some fear it carries public health costs, too.
South Korea demands change after dismal World Cup exit
South Korea's dismal World Cup first-round exit has sparked fury at home and calls for a complete overhaul at the top have not been silenced by coach Hong Myung-bo's resignation.South Korea, World Cup semi-finalists as co-hosts in 2002, limped out of the tournament after failing to squeeze into the knockout rounds as one of the top eight third-place finishers.
Join the world’s coolest science lesson in Geneva
Head to Switzerland for a tour of CERN, the world’s largest particle physics research laboratory, to discover the secrets of the universe.
Drew Nesbitt captures first Korn Ferry Tour title at Memorial Health Championship presented by LRS
Charting the champion (stats updated through the tournament)
Reece James: England defender confident of playing again at World Cup
Plus: England face prospect of 24 hours worth of flights if they make it all the way to World Cup final; South Korea manager Myung-Bo Hong reportedly quits after disappointing tournament; Robert Lewandowski to join Chicago Fire after leaving Barcelona
Rory McIlroy
The Travelers Championship is the final signature event of the 2026 PGA Tour season, with a total purse of $20 million.
Photos from start of Sunday's final Memorial Health Championship round
The final round of the Korn Ferry Tour's Memorial Health Championship was played on Sunday at Panther Creek. See the best images from the day.
France, Argentina top World Cup odds; U.S. puts sportsbooks at risk
Star-powered France and Argentina top the odds board to win the World Cup as the tournament moves into the knockout stage, while the United States' positive momentum will have sportsbooks sweating more with each game it wins.
New Captain Jack Sparrow Entertainment Coming to 2026 Mickey's Not So Scary Halloween Party
Halfway to the Holidays is over, which can only mean one thing: Halloween is almost here at Walt Disney World!!! Don't roll your eyes or laugh. This isn't a joke. At least, not a funny
Usher makes the case for R&B in stadiums
LOS ANGELES — As Usher prepares to launch a stadium tour with Chris Brown, he says the criticism and legal troubles surrounding the singer never factored into his decision to
Heavy Metal Legend Releases New Song Amid 2026 Tour
Nightwish's Floor Jansen is back with a fearless new single.
What is extra time in the World Cup knockout stage? Complete rules explained
When a match ends in a draw in the single-elimination phase of a soccer tournament, an additional 30 minutes of play are required
Inside country legend Alan Jackson's triumphant finale concert
Country music legend Alan Jackson has ended his touring career | KMBZ
Inside country legend Alan Jackson\'s triumphant finale concert
Country music legend Alan Jackson has ended his touring career. On Saturday night, he performed his final show at Nashville's Nissan Stadium. The event, titled “Last Call: One More for
Inside country legend Alan Jackson's triumphant finale concert
Country music legend Alan Jackson has ended his touring career | WWL
Inside country legend Alan Jackson's triumphant finale concert
Country music legend Alan Jackson has ended his touring career.
Photo gallery | Day 3 of Memorial Health Championship at Panther Creek
See some of the most interesting images from the third round of the Korn Ferry Tour's Memorial Health Championship at Panther Creek from Saturday.
Drew Nesbitt claims one-shot lead heading into Sunday at Memorial Health Championship presented by LRS
Charting the leader (stats entering week)
Don Lemon, DL Hughley bring 'Anything Goes' tour to Columbus this fall
Emmy Award-winning journalist Don Lemon and renowned comedian DL Hughley will visit Columbus as part of their extended tour this fall. The comedy-political commentary duo are set to perform at Mershon...
Calls for Radical Reinvention of the Tour de France amid Concerns for Rider Health
New Tour race times and new dates are being argued for over fears of heat-related risks.
Soccer meets nature at Vancouver mountaintop watch party
The match between England and Panama was shown on a big screen atop Grouse Mountain, a 4,100-foot mountain that's part of the Pacific Ranges with a sweeping view of British Columbia. When Jude Bellingham scored England's breakthrough goal in the second half, the fans roared. Both Toronto and Vancouver are hosting matches during the tournament.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina wins first ATP Tour title in sixth final appearance
Davidovich Fokina had held five championship points before Saturday without winning a title. He only needed one.
Fallout from USMNT loss to Turkey and previewing the Mbappe-Haaland clash
On today’s show, we look back at the United States’ final group stage match against Turkey and evaluate their readiness for the Round of 32. Manchester City insider Sam Lee joins us to preview the tournament’s first true superstar heavyweight clash as Kylian Mbappe and France square off against Erling Haaland and Norway in a battle for Group I supremacy. Plus, The Athletic’s Jay Harris is back in the studio to break down the latest bracketology, advancement percentages, and qualification permutations for Groups G, H, and I using The Athletic’s World Cup Tracker.
Stars like Mohamed Salah make World Cup magical for Seattle sports fans
Seattle will remember Mohamed Salah after this World Cup comes to an end. This proximity to excellence is part of what makes the tournament so great.
Will Cannon posts second-round 61, leads Memorial Health Championship presented by LRS
Will Cannon grabs a one-shot lead through 36 holes at the Memorial Health Championship presented by LRS after posting a 10-under 61 on Friday.
Guided kayak tours stopped at Pinellas Bayway South
FDOT said no private for-profit business is allowed to operate within the state transportation facility right of way per Florida Statute.
Tourism tax dollars to drive $25M makeover of John R. Jones Sports Complex in Pensacola
PENSACOLA, Fla. -- The John R. Jones Sports Complex will soon undergo a makeover. When it's complete, it is expected to be one of the premiere athletic fields i
Tackling the Politics of the World Cup
The soccer tournament has brought a flood of political story lines.
Roy Cooper brings 'Make Stuff Cost Less' tour to Asheville, targets health costs, tariffs
Former North Carolina Governor and U.S. Senate candidate Roy Cooper brought his "Make Stuff Cost Less" tour to Asheville on Friday.
Take an 8-Minute Gameplay Tour of the Remade Havana in Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced
Join Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced lead level designer Jean Strachen as she takes you on an eight-minute gameplay tour of Havana. See what it looks like now in the gorgeous new remake that will be released for PC, PS5, and Xbox Series X|S on July 9.
Music Legend Axes Shows After Onstage Health Scare
Lionel Richie was hospitalized on the opening night of his tour with Earth, Wind & Fire after feeling dizzy on-stage.
Four bad habits tournament golf exposed within my game
What one writer learned from his second tournament round of the year.
First Look: Breguet Releases 3 new Tourbillon Watches for the 225th Anniversary of its Invention
New takes on the Breguet Classique Tourbillon Sidéral, the Tradition Tourbillon and the Marine Tourbillon Équation Marchante.
Introducing: Breguet Celebrates the 225th Anniversary of the Tourbillon with Four New Releases, And the Return of a Collector Favorite (Live Pics)
A revived and revised version of the Roth-designed caliber 558.1 movement (significantly improved) headlines four watches to celebrate the patent date of one of Abraham-Louis Breguet's most notable achievements.
Lionel Richie postpones concert at United Center in Chicago following health scare at Minnesota show
Lionel Richie has postponed his concert this week at the United Center in Chicago following his health scare at during his first performance in a tour with Earth, Wind and Fire.
Lionel Richie postpones concerts after falling ill during tour opener
Lionel Richie is pausing his return to the stage after abruptly falling ill during the opening of his new tour.
All the songs on Ariana Grande's Eternal Sunshine Tour
OAKLAND, Calif. – It's been six years since Ariana Grande’s last tour, and her yellow brick road has led her back to the stage.
Trump will present the World Cup trophy. It could be VERY awkward
The president has launched a war with nation in the tournament, and a war of words with many others.
Travelers Championship brings business boost and traffic headaches for Cromwell-area shops
As golfers compete at the Travelers Championship, nearby restaurants and shops in the Cromwell area are seeing the tournament’s impact on business, with some owners welcoming the crowds and others pointing to traffic challenges.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
Chris Evert shares devastating health update
It is the news that no one wanted to hear about Chris Evert. Amid the Netflix press tour and her upcoming ESPN commentary duties at Wimbledon, we learned on Wednesday that she quietly stepped away to deal with a health…