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Supreme Court upholds state bans on transgender athletes in girls' and women's sports
Supreme Court Upholds Bans On Transgender Women In Sports
The ruling will impact laws in more than 25 states.
Supreme Court upholds state bans on transgender athletes in girls and women's sports
The ruling on a pair of separate cases from Idaho and West Virginia could carry far-reaching implications for transgender rights.
Supreme Court upholds state transgender sports bans
In the latest of a string of losses for LGBTQ rights, the high court allowed states to bar transgender athletes from girls’ and women’s sports.
US supreme court upholds laws excluding trans women from competing in female sports
Justices voted to overturn judgements issued by lower courts in favor of trans students who sued after being barred from competing in West Virginia and Idaho
Live Updates: Supreme Court Rules on Banning Transgender Athletes From Women’s Sports
The court’s decision involving laws from West Virginia and Idaho has implications for 25 other states with similar restrictions. Times reporters are reading it and providing analysis.
Alan Ritchson's 'Reacher' sets season 4 premiere date a month ahead of 'Neagley' spinoff debut
'Reacher's series is returning for its fourth season this summer, just in time to usher in the premiere of its Maria Sten-led spinoff series.
Gorsuch suggests Supreme Court's Trump ruling is opening move against administrative state
Justice Neil Gorsuch's concurrence suggests the Supreme Court's FTC ruling could lead to sweeping challenges against independent federal agencies' power.
Supreme Court could rule on birthright citizenship, transgender sports cases today
The Supreme Court is expected to release decisions on birthright citizenship and laws barring transgender girls and women from participating in school sports teams.
The Latest: Supreme Court is set to rule on Trump’s challenge to birthright citizenship
The Supreme Court will rule on the constitutionality of President Donald Trump’s order on birthright citizenship declaring that children born to parents who are in the United States illegally or temporarily are not American citizens.
Supreme Court to rule on birthright citizenship and rights of transgender athletes
The Supreme Court will hand down the final opinions of its term today. Follow for live news updates.
PlayStation Plus Adds Massive 2025 PS5 Adventure RPG
PlayStation Plus Extra and Premium catalog has dropped the final three PS5 games for June 2026, including a 2025 open-world adventure RPG.
My MAHA Monday at the Great American State Fair | WSJ Politics Newsletter for June 30
Plus, the Supreme Court tells President Trump he can’t fire Lisa Cook, and why Jamie Dimon wants to finance missile makers
US Supreme Court to decide legality of state transgender sports bans
The U.S. Supreme Court is set on Tuesday to decide the legality of state laws in West Virginia and Idaho banning transgender student athletes from female sports teams at public schools including universities, a contentious issue enmeshed in the nation's culture wars.
Premier Lacrosse League lands $100 million to chase Olympic moment
The funding comes at a crucial period of preparation for PLL, as it looks to capitalize on lacrosse being a part of the 2028 Summer Olympics.
Anger at supreme court ruling on Trump’s power to fire agency chiefs
Today is the final day for the supreme court to lay out the last rulings of its nine-month term
Supreme Court's ruling in Cook case backs Federal Reserve's independence
The Supreme Court on Monday said the Federal Reserve, unlike any other agency in Washington, has a measure of independence from the presidency and day-to-day politics.
How the Supreme Court became a power that is reshaping America
Sometimes, these days, it feels like the Supreme Court is running the country.
CNN Host and Chief Legal Analyst Laura Coates, breaks down the major rulings by the Supreme Court on presidential power.
Fired FTC commissioner speaks to OutFront as Trump touts Supreme Court ‘big win’: ‘we should be worried’
US Sen. Dan Sullivan’s same-name challenger can be on primary ballot, Alaska Supreme Court rules
The Alaska Supreme Court on Monday ruled that a man with the same name and party affiliation as Alaska Republican US Sen. Dan Sullivan is qualified to run for the seat and ordered elections officials to place him on the August primary ballot.
Supreme Court hands Trump new power to tighten his grip on the federal government
Trump lost a Supreme Court case over his attempted Fed firing. But he won a bigger fight for presidential power.
Those with temporary protected status fear for what's next
The Supreme Court ruled to allow the Trump administration to end TPS for Haitian and Syrian immigrants.
The Supreme Court handed Trump an election case defeat. Is a bigger win for him coming?
The Supreme Court’s ruling letting more than a dozen states keep their post-election grace periods for mail ballots is a defeat for President Donald Trump and Republicans ahead of the midterms, but the GOP can still capture significant victories in major election-related cases coming farther down the pipeline.
Trump unloads after Supreme Court upholds late mail-in ballots in Mississippi
Trump slams Supreme Court ruling allowing late mail-in ballots, demands Congress pass the SAVE Act requiring voter ID and proof of citizenship.
Alito blasts latest SCOTUS ballot ruling as invitation to ‘voter fraud’ risks
Justice Samuel Alito warns that counting late-arriving mail-in ballots could severely undermine Americans' confidence in election integrity.
Supreme Court ruling gives a reprieve to states with grace periods for receiving mail ballots
Election officials in states that allow mail ballots to be counted after Election Day say they are relieved that the U.S. Supreme Court has rejected an effort to outlaw the practice
Takeaways from the Supreme Court’s decisions expanding Trump’s firing power but preserving Fed for now
The Supreme Court handed President Donald Trump a significant win Monday by allowing him to remove the leaders of once-independent federal agencies at will, toppling a 1935 precedent in the process that could reorder the way the government functions.
From mail voting to firings, SCOTUS verdict on Trump agenda is mixed
The Supreme Court dealt the Trump agenda major blows on economic regulation and mail-in voting, but also expanded Trump's power over federal agencies.
How Mississippi reacted to the Supreme Court mail-in ballot ruling
In a rare move out of lockstep with President Trump, the U.S. Supreme Court backed Mississippi's law counting mail-in ballots after Election Day.
Republicans call for Senate to pass SAVE America Act after mail ballot ruling
The Supreme Court on Monday ruled ballots postmarked by Election Day can be counted shortly afterward
Republicans call for Senate to pass SAVE America Act after mail ballot ruling
The Supreme Court on Monday ruled ballots postmarked by Election Day can be counted shortly afterward
Conservatives revolt after Trump-appointed Barrett joins liberals in ‘shockingly wrong’ mail ballot ruling
Amy Coney Barrett faces conservative backlash after authoring the 5-4 Supreme Court ruling allowing mail-in ballots received after Election Day.
How fear of a market meltdown may have quietly shaped the Supreme Court’s ruling to protect Fed independence
Supreme Court: Trump may fire heads of independent agencies, but not the Federal Reserve
The court's conservatives said the president had the authority to remove all officials who wield executive authority, even if the agency officials had fixed terms set by law.
Supreme Court won't revive Alan Dershowitz's $300 million suit against CNN
Dershowitz had urged the court to reconsider New York Times Co. v. Sullivan. The landmark First Amendment case that made it harder for public figures to win libel lawsuits because it requires proof that an outlet knowingly published something false, or showed a reckless disregard for the truth.
Supreme Court rules MSU economist Lisa Cook can remain as Fed governor
The Trump administration sought to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook amid a push to get the U.S. independent central bank to lower interest rates.
Colorado Supreme Court: Redistricting plans for 2028 election cannot proceed under state constitution
The Colorado Supreme Court blocked all attempts at redrawing congressional district boundaries for the 2028 election from reaching the ballot on Monday, concluding each of the proposed ballot measures violated the constitutional single-subject requirement. The court considered five distinct, but related, ballot measures. Three proposals would have redrawn U.S. House of Representatives districts to give […]
New York AG lauds Supreme Court's mail-in ballot ruling
Letitia James released a statement shortly after the court's 5-4 ruling, which stemmed from a challenge brought by the Republican National Committee.
New York AG lauds Supreme Court's mail-in ballot ruling
Letitia James released a statement shortly after the court's 5-4 ruling, which stemmed from a challenge brought by the Republican National Committee.
Supreme Court says Fed's Lisa Cook can keep her job for now, but it upholds other Trump firings
The Supreme Court on Monday dramatically expanded presidential power, upholding President Donald Trump’s firings of the heads of independent federal agencies with one important exception, the Federal Reserve.
Does a recent U.S. Supreme Court decision affect how Minnesota can warn of pesticide health dangers?
The question stemmed from a lawsuit about cancer risks associated with Monsanto's widely-used weed killer, Roundup.
Supreme Court expands Trump’s power over the federal bureaucracy
The justices allowed the president to fire a Democratic member of the Federal Trade Commission, striking down a nearly century-old precedent intended to insulate independent agencies from political influence by the executive.
Supreme Court rules states can count late-arriving mailed ballots, rejecting Trump-led challenge
The decision rejected a Republican-led attack on laws in more than half the states and the District of Columbia that permit mailed ballots to arrive and be counted some number of days after the election, provided they are postmarked by Election Day.
Supreme Court Expands Presidential Power by Allowing Trump to Fire F.T.C. Official
President Trump’s firing tested a precedent that had insulated independent regulators. But the justices carved out the “unique role” of the Federal Reserve.
Supreme Court hands Trump a loss in his fight with the Fed
The Supreme Court sided against President Donald Trump in a closely-watched case.
Supreme Court rules on Trump's attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook
The Supreme Court ruled on President Donald Trump's bid to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, potentially reshaping presidential power over the central bank and economic policy.
In loss for Trump, Supreme Court keeps Lisa Cook at the Fed
The decision was a loss for Trump at the Supreme Court, which previously rejected the sweeping tariffs that were at the center of his economic policy.
Supreme Court rules mail-in ballots arriving after Election Day can be counted
A decision against such ballots could have upended election procedures in states across the country ahead of the midterm elections.
Supreme Court will weigh Trump-backed Republican push to revive Arizona voting laws
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Supreme Court said Monday it will consider a Republican push to enforce strict Arizona voting laws passed in the swing state after the 2020 election. The high court has allowed some similar rules to take effect temporarily before, including Arizona's proof-of-citizenship requirement for state and local elections and a Virginia purge of voter rolls that the state said was aimed at keeping noncitizens from voting. READ MORE: Supreme Court rejects Trump's
Supreme Court to review the legality of mass voter purges in the weeks before an election
The Supreme Court will review the legality of mass voters purges in the final weeks before an election, as part of a larger case the justices are taking up examining the methods Arizona uses to keep non-citizens off the voter rolls.
Supreme Court rejects legal battle over New York's COVID-19 vaccine mandate for healthcare workers
The dispute arose after New York's Department of Health issued an emergency rule that required healthcare workers to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19.
Supreme Court rejects Trump's push to toss $5M verdict in E. Jean Carroll case
The decision comes about two years after the court granted Trump broad immunity from criminal prosecution
Supreme Court declines to hear Trump appeal of E. Jean Carroll sexual abuse verdict
The Supreme Court Monday declined to take up an appeal from President Donald Trump over a $5 million verdict and finding that he sexually abused and defamed E. Jean Carroll, a decision that means the president will now have to pay the magazine columnist.
Supreme Court issues opinions
Major rulings are anticipated this week in cases involving presidential power, birthright citizenship and transgender rights.
Video Millions lose health insurance
Millions of Americans have lost Affordable Care Act health insurance this year as many faced double- or triple-digit increases in their premium payments.
Supreme court nears the end of its term with cases about Donald Trump’s power to be decided
Court expected to hand down decisions on several outstanding cases, wrapping up term that has focussed on Trump’s expansive claims of presidential power
Virginians are feeling the effects of spiking health insurance premiums
Nearly 1 in 5 people using the state exchange has dropped coverage since January.
People are taking allergy and heartburn pills for PMS. Could it work?
Can the mix really help with premenstrual woes? Theoretically, the link between histamine and hormones could explain why the trendy DIY treatment seems to help some women.
Just hopes agent is 'busy' after World Cup impact
Elijah Just hopes his agent is "busy at the moment" as the New Zealand midfielder hinted at a possible summer exit from Motherwell after impressing at the World Cup. Just only joined Motherwell from Danish club Horsens a year ago and is under contract until next summer, with the Scottish Premiership club having an option of extending that by a further year. "The World Cup has given me added belief and also motivation to keep pushing," Just told the NZ Herald.
Millions drop Obamacare health coverage after subsidies expire and costs rise
Health analysts say the drop in enrollment was likely related to the Jan. 1 expiration of federal subsidies, which caused a surge in plan costs that resulted in many people being unable to pay their premiums.
Efzimfotase alfa demonstrated improvements in bone health in treatment-naïve pediatric patients with hypophosphatasia achieving median difference of 1.67 vs placebo in RGI-C Score at week 25 in MULBERRY Phase III trial
Positive results from the MULBERRY Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa (ALXN1850), an investigational enzyme replacement therapy, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health in children (2 to
Alan Ritchson's New Unusually Silent 'Motor City' Movie Described as 'John Wick Meets Reacher'
Alan Ritchson's latest movie is unusual because of its almost complete lack of dialogue.
Maryland health insurance rates could rise 13.7% in 2027 under proposal
BALTIMORE — Maryland residents who buy health insurance through the Affordable Care Act marketplace could see higher premiums next year, with insurers requesting an average rate increase of 13.7% for
Mary Means Business: Raising Cane's eyes Starkville location
I’m about to act a fool, because it looks like Raising Cane’s is finally on its way to Starkville. The, in my opinion, premier chicken joint is officially
The Chicago Bears are getting their own Hallmark Christmas movie
The Chicago Bears are the latest NFL franchise to get the Hallmark Christmas movie treatment. The team announced Thursday that it is partnering with Hallmark Media, the NFL, and Skydance Sports for Holiday Touchdown: A Bears Love Story, which will premiere during Hallmark Channel’s 17th annual Countdown to Christmas programming event this holiday season. “My…
Valleywise Health acquires system to better treat premature and critically ill infants
Valleywise Health has a new system to better treat premature and critically ill infants, becoming the first Arizona hospital to implement it.
5 million have dropped ACA insurance after Trump and the GOP let prices skyrocket
The number of people who signed up for a health plan and then didn't pay their premium fell much more sharply than it has in years past. Trump officials blame fraud. Health policy experts blame costs.
Leaders of effort to preserve Temporary Protected Status react to Supreme Court loss
What Apple Just Confirmed About the iPhone 18 Pro and Ultra
Apple has confirmed the foldable iPhone Ultra and iPhone 18 Pro for fall 2026. Explore the new A20 Pro chip, variable aperture cameras, and premium designs.
Arsenal hold talks with Strasbourg technical director Pascal de Maesschalck
Arsenal have held talks with the technical director of RC Strasbourg Alsace, Pascal de Maesschalck, according to a report from The Athletic.The Premier League champions are in the process of finding ...
Supreme Court ruling on Roundup points to a confusing difference between the law and science
The Supreme Court’s ruling on Roundup shows science and law use the same word — causation — while asking different questions, writes epidemiologist.
Fallout from USMNT loss to Turkey and previewing the Mbappe-Haaland clash
On today’s show, we look back at the United States’ final group stage match against Turkey and evaluate their readiness for the Round of 32. Manchester City insider Sam Lee joins us to preview the tournament’s first true superstar heavyweight clash as Kylian Mbappe and France square off against Erling Haaland and Norway in a battle for Group I supremacy. Plus, The Athletic’s Jay Harris is back in the studio to break down the latest bracketology, advancement percentages, and qualification permutations for Groups G, H, and I using The Athletic’s World Cup Tracker.
California health insurance tax hike: Will your premiums increase?
A balance act: To help fund the safety net, lawmakers have voted through a health tax extension that could increase premium costs for Californians with private insurance.
Tourism tax dollars to drive $25M makeover of John R. Jones Sports Complex in Pensacola
PENSACOLA, Fla. -- The John R. Jones Sports Complex will soon undergo a makeover. When it's complete, it is expected to be one of the premiere athletic fields i
Health Care Plan Premiums Approved for 2027
The State Teachers Retirement Board set premiums for the STRS Ohio Health Care Program for calendar year 2027.
Health Brief: Inside the CDC nominee’s finances
Plus: Supreme Court ruling sparks health worker deportation fears
Maryland health insurers want to raise premiums an average 13.7% for individual plans in 2027
Maryland health insurers want to raise premiums an average 13.7% for individual ACA plans in 2027
Supreme Court says Alito’s verbal reaction to Sotomayor was a ‘misunderstanding’ by Alito
The highly unusual exchange between Justice Samuel Alito and Justice Sonia Sotomayor over a dissent read from the bench was based on a “misunderstanding” by the conservative justice, the Supreme Court said Friday.
Disagreements between Supreme Court justices bubble into public view as major rulings loom
The Supreme Court is handing down major opinions at a rapid clip, but even with some of the biggest decisions yet to come there are signs of tension between the justices.
Evoke Entertainment Signs Tribeca-Honored Filmmaker Elisee Junior St. Preux
EXCLUSIVE: Evoke Entertainment has signed Haitian American filmmaker Elisee Junior St. Preux, whose debut feature The Tropic Sun and His Eyes world premiered in Tribeca’s Viewpoints section and earned...
These Deals on Video Games, Controllers, and Peripherals Will Disappear When Prime Day Ends Tonight
These are the best last-chance gaming deals for the last day of Prime Day: Save on top video games like Elden Ring, plus premium controllers, gaming mice, and essential peripherals.
Nevada takes step toward becoming corporate litigation hub with business court pilot program
The Clark County District Court this week announced it has restructured its departments to include a dedicated business court. The restructuring is expected to bring down case adjudication times, and it could help an ongoing effort to transform Nevada into a premier destination for corporate litigation. Judges Maria Gall and Joe Hardy–Departments 9 and 15, […]
Supreme Court rules in weedkiller cancer case
Dems want to unmask Eli Lilly's obesity drug user, a new genome-editing tool raises ethics questions, and more health news
Bayer wins in US court, but at what cost to public health?
A landmark US Supreme Court ruling protects Bayer from thousands of lawsuits linked to its Roundup weedkiller. Plaintiffs alleged the German agrochemical giant failed to warn users about potential cancer risks.
After Supreme Court’s TPS decision, more than a million immigrants face scramble to stay in US
Until Thursday, hundreds of thousands of Haitians were legally living and working in the United States, along with thousands of Syrians. Now, they’re in legal limbo.
Alito’s testy reaction to Sotomayor underscores tensions at Supreme Court
When major rulings are announced, most Supreme Court justices practice a kind of studied impassivity. Then, there’s Samuel Alito.
Trump likely to ‘lose’ on birthright citizenship case, political analyst says
Fox News senior political analyst Juan Williams discusses the Supreme Court set to issue a ruling on birthright citizenship on ‘Special Report.’
WATCH: Stephen Miller says 'America's doors are closed fully to asylum seekers' after Supreme Court rulings
The Supreme Court voted 6-3 on Thursday to allow the Trump administration to end legal protections for migrants fleeing violence and natural disaster in Haiti and Syria, exposing hundreds of thousands more people to potential deportation.
Blue state leaders erupt after Supreme Court’s decision ending TPS protections for Haitians, Syrians
Supreme Court rules 6-3 in favor of Trump administration in two key immigration cases on Temporary Protected Status and asylum, drawing opposition from blue state Democrats.
DC Wrap: Supreme Courts rules on immigration and gun cases
A look at the day's biggest stories in national politics
Supreme Court hands Trump major victories on his immigration agenda
In two ideologically spit rulings that could affect millions, justices say the administration can deport some migrants and turn others away at the border.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
Ohio politicians respond to Supreme Court TPS ruling for Haitians and Syrians
The decision impacts more than 350,000 Haitians and 6,000 Syrians across the country, including many in Ohio.
Takeaways: Supreme Court hands Trump massive wins on immigration agenda
The Supreme Court’s conservative majority delivered President Donald Trump a pair of significant affirmations of his immigration policy Thursday, paving the way for the administration to effectively remove more than 1 million people from the US and keep many others from entering in the first place.
The Supreme Court lets Trump deport people back to war zones
Trump’s administration may ignore procedural rules governing many of the most endangered people in America.