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The Case for Pull Funding at the National Institutes of Health
The White House’s fiscal year 2027 budget proposal, released earlier this month, would cut the National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding by ~$5 billion. This is a meaningful cut, though far smaller than the roughly $18 billion reduction proposed for 2026, which Congress ultimately rejected in favor of a modest increase. Whether Congress holds the line again remains uncertain.
The mental health parity gap is gaping
RFK Jr.'s testimony to Congress, broader access to peptides, and more health news from Morning Rounds
United States and Madagascar Discuss Five-Year Health MOU Implementation Plan - U.S. Embassy in Madagascar
United States and Madagascar Discuss Five-Year Health MOU Implementation Plan The United States and Madagascar’s Ministry of Public Health are in the process of developing a plan for implementing the U.S.-Madagascar five-year Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on health cooperation, signed under the Trump Administration’s America First Global Health Strategy. The two-day workshop, at the U.S. Embassy in Antananarivo, brought together technical experts and senior leadership from the Malagasy and U.S. governments to discuss a shared vision through a preliminary draft MOU Implementation Plan and to establish the joint governance structures that will guide U.S. foreign assistance in health over the next five years. The jointly decided bilateral health MOU, signed on December 22, 2025, builds on decades of U.S. global health assistance to Madagascar. The health MOU involves the U.S.’s plans, working with Congress, to provide approximately $134 million (over 554 billion Ariary) and a Malagasy commitment of $41 million (over 169 billion Ariary). It aims to strengthen Madagascar’s health system, improve disease prevention and response, and support services that address health security concerns for both countries, including malaria, maternal and child health, polio, and global health security issues that could reach U.S. shores if not contained at their source. During the recent workshop, technical staff from the Ministry of Public Health and the U.S. Government health team worked in thematic groups to draft detailed implementation plans for the five-year MOU period. On the second day, U.S. Chargé d’Affaires Stephanie Arnold and Ministry of Public Health and Economic and Finance Ministry leadership joined the technical teams to discuss plans and proposed terms of reference for two committees: a Joint Steering Committee and an Operational Committee. These structures will ensure clear roles and responsibilities, regular dialogue between the two governments, consistent monitoring of progress, and accountability for results. The framework includes performance benchmarks that will guide continued U.S. support and track Madagascar’s progress toward self-reliance. “We see this not as a U.S. project, but as a joint framework under Malagasy leadership, with U.S. support,” said U.S. Chargé d’Affaires Stephanie Arnold during the workshop’s opening session. The approach reflects U.S. foreign assistance principles that emphasize strategic, results-driven support that advances American interests while helping recipient countries build sustainable health systems. The framework is designed to build systems that Madagascar will increasingly finance and lead itself, reducing long-term dependence on foreign assistance.
Political violence trending: Congress faces rising threats
We hear and read the increasingly graphic and profane abuse that elected officials and staffers are getting daily.
Largely secret donors pour millions into election that could tip Congress
Most of the almost $100 million raised to influence the vote, heavily favoring Democrats, comes from nonprofits that don’t have to disclose their donors.
Former Pence aide turned Trump critic, Olivia Troye, launches congressional campaign as a Democrat
House Democrats attempt anti-corruption message to gain traction against Trump
Days after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was ousted by an opposition campaign with an anti-corruption message, Democrats want to try the same playbook against President Donald Trump before the midterm elections.
Sexual abuse allegations spur calls for a broader reckoning in Congress
Resignations came quickly this week from two congressmen accused of sexual misconduct toward staff members. Yet for many of the women of Capitol Hill, the moment of accountability was years in the making — and far from enough.
Two Floridians in Congress face mounting pressure to resign
Members of Congress are weighing in on Rep. Cherfilus-McCormick and Rep. Cory Mills.
Live Results: New Jersey special congressional election to replace Mikie Sherrill
Residents of New Jersey's 11th Congressional District will have a representative in Congress for the first time this year after a special election on Thursday.
Sen. Ron Johnson weighs in on Iran war, gas prices, Wisconsin state politics
The Republican senator joined WPR’s "Wisconsin Today" as Congress is back in Washington to tackle big issues.
WATCH LIVE: OMB Director Vought testifies before Senate panel on Trump's 2027 budget request
Senate again votes against ending Iran war. But tougher votes are coming
The Senate on Wednesday again blocked a resolution that would halt American hostilities against Iran. Democrats aren't done forcing similar votes.
Johnson backs Trump, Vance in criticism of pope
House Speaker Mike Johnson said he was “taken a little bit aback” by recent comments from the pope.
‘We need to have another reckoning’, that’s what one Democratic influencer says Congress needs nearly a decade after #MeToo
Republican Clay Fuller sworn in to take House seat formerly held by Marjorie Taylor Greene
Republican Rep. Clay Fuller of Georgia was sworn into office Tuesday after winning a special election to take the congressional seat formerly held by Marjorie Taylor Greene.
Chairman Griffith Delivers Opening Statement at Subcommittee on Health Legislative Hearing Discussing Solutions to Improve Public Health of Americans
The Committee on Energy and Commerce is the oldest standing legislative committee in the U.S. House of Representatives and is vested with the broadest jurisdiction of any congressional authorizing committee.
Is Swalwell the Straw That Broke Congress’s Back? | WSJ Politics Newsletter for April 15
Plus, two of Jeanine Pirro’s deputies make a surprise visit to the Fed’s headquarters-renovation construction site
How Eric Swalwell rose to the top of Democratic politics as rumors followed him
Allies like Rep. Nancy Pelosi and Sen. Ruben Gallego say they knew nothing about the misconduct allegations, with Gallego saying the congressman led a “double life.”
What Eric Swalwell, Tony Gonzales resignations mean for Mike Johnson’s agenda in Congress
The House faces a series of “must-pass” bills on everything from surveillance to the Iran war to the Department of Homeland Security.
Sexual abuse allegations are spurring calls for a broader reckoning in Congress
Resignations came quickly this week from two congressmen accused of sexual misconduct toward staff members | WWJ Newsradio 950
Sexual abuse allegations are spurring calls for a broader reckoning in Congress
Resignations came quickly this week from two congressmen accused of sexual misconduct toward staff members | KNSS Radio
Sexual abuse allegations are spurring calls for a broader reckoning in Congress
Resignations came quickly this week from two congressmen accused of sexual misconduct toward staff members | KMBZ
Swalwell resigns from Congress following allegations of sexual misconduct
Once a rising star in the Democratic party, Eric Swalwell's stunning fall from grace was cemented Tuesday as his resignation letter was read by the House Clerk.
Swalwell resigns from Congress following allegations of sexual misconduct
Once a rising star in the Democratic party, Eric Swalwell's stunning fall from grace was cemented Tuesday as his resignation letter was read by the House Clerk.
Congress Holocaust
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-Benton, speaks during a Congressional Gold Medal ceremony in honor of Benjamin Ferencz, at the Capitol, Tuesday, April 14, 2026, in Washington.
Republicans are moving to fund Homeland Security 'the hard way' after end of talks
Republicans in Congress are forging ahead with a risky go-it-alone strategy for funding the Department of Homeland Security | KMBZ
What Swalwell’s exit means for Democrats in California’s governor race
Billionaire Tom Steyer and ex-congresswoman Katie Porter stand to benefit the most in a Democratic field with no clear front-runner, several strategists said.
Democrats float 25th Amendment commission for Trump
Democrats in Congress introduce a bill to invoke the 25th Amendment against President Donald Trump, citing national security concerns.
WATCH LIVE: CFTC chairman testifies before House panel amid scrutiny of prediction markets
Republicans’ big 2026 problem: An unhinged Trump who doesn’t seem to care about them
It’s almost as if President Donald Trump doesn’t care that what he’s doing could torpedo the GOP’s hopes in less than seven months — because Congress doesn’t matter much to his view of power.
WATCH: Woman alleges violent sexual assault by Rep. Eric Swalwell in news conference with lawyers
Swalwell and Gonzales resign from Congress under threat of expulsion
Reps. Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales resigned from Congress Tuesday, moments before their House colleagues were prepared to set in motion their swift removal.
Democrats seek to overturn Trump's new rules for student loan forgiveness
Democrats in Congress are trying to overturn the Trump administration's changes to a student loan forgiveness program | WWJ Newsradio 950
OPINION | More than a vote: discovering my place in politics
In high school, I viewed politics as one of the most mind-numbing subjects imaginable. From my perspective, Congress was dominated by wealthy, older white men and my single vote felt insignificant, as though it could never truly represent me. Politics seemed distant, unrelatable and ultimately pointless. In 2024, however, Congress reached a record high of...
More than a vote: discovering my place in politics
In high school, I viewed politics as one of the most mind-numbing subjects imaginable. From my perspective, Congress was dominated by wealthy, older white men and my single vote felt insignificant, as though it could never truly represent me. Politics seemed distant, unrelatable and ultimately pointless. In 2024, however, Congress reached a record high of...
Maryland Gov. Wes Moore falls short in bid to redraw congressional map to boost Democrats
A proposal for a new Maryland congressional map has officially died with the conclusion of the state's legislative session.
Woman alleges violent sexual assault by Eric Swalwell: 'He raped me’
A day after Rep. Eric Swallwell said he would resign from Congress, a Beverly Hills woman detailed what she described as a violent sexual encounter with the Democratic lawmaker.
Democrats line up to run in Virginia congressional districts, even before voters approve them
Virginia voters are set to decide next week on a Democratic-drawn redistricting plan that could boost the party's chances in the U.S. House | TALK 980am
Congress returns to a packed health care agenda
The key health care issues we're watching as Congress returns from recess.
Library of Congress appoints Arthur Sze to a second 1-year term as US poet laureate
U.S. poet laureate Arthur Sze has been appointed to a second one-year term by the Library of Congress | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM
Swalwell resigned. But will he face real consequences?
California Rep. Eric Swalwell resigned from Congress and suspended his gubernatorial campaign. But did he actually apologize and take accountability?
Trump can’t save college sports. But Congress can.
The SCORE Act could help civilize the Wild West that student-athletes have been living in for years.
What Trump’s Deleted Social-Media Post Says About 2026 | WSJ Politics Newsletter for April 14
Plus, Reps. Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales say they plan to leave Congress in the wake of sexual-misconduct allegations
Olivia Troye, former Pence adviser turned Trump critic, launches Democratic bid for US House from Virginia
Olivia Troye, a former adviser to Vice President Mike Pence, announced Tuesday that she would run for Congress as a Democrat in Virginia’s proposed new 7th District, pending passage of a sweeping redistricting referendum this month.
Former Pence adviser Olivia Troye runs for Congress as a Democrat
Troye, who resigned from the White House in 2020 and became a vocal critic of President Trump, will run in Virginia's redrawn 7th Congressional District, which is Democratic-friendly.
Gov. Wes Moore falls short in push to redraw Maryland's congressional map to boost Democrats
A proposal for a new Maryland congressional map has officially died with the conclusion of the state’s legislative session
Swalwell has a ‘reckless disregard for the truth,’ political strategist says
Legal and political strategist Katie Zacharia discusses the allegations against Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif., following the suspension of his gubernatorial campaign and resignation from Congress on ‘Fox News @ Night.’
Swalwell's 'best friend' in Congress turns on him after bombshell allegations torpedo his political career
Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., distanced himself from Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif., calling him unfit for Congress after allegations of sexual assault and misconduct.
Congressional candidate Jack Schlossberg thinks Democrats need a makeover
He told NY1 that thinks he can come out on top of a crowded Democratic primary field to represent parts of Manhattan.
Political newcomer running for Rep. Golden's seat in US House
At 29 years old, Paige Loud is the youngest candidate in the Democratic primary race for Maine's 2nd Congressional District.
Embattled GOP Rep. Tony Gonzales announces he’s stepping down from Congress
Embattled GOP Rep. Tony Gonzales announced on Monday that he will soon step down from Congress.
Rep. Eric Swalwell of California says he will resign from Congress after sexual assault allegations
The decision caps a swift political fall for the seven-term lawmaker, who had been seen as a frontrunner in California’s gubernatorial race.
Rep. Eric Swalwell will resign from Congress following sexual misconduct allegations
The California Democrat said in a statement he was “deeply sorry to my family, staff and constituents for mistakes in judgment I’ve made in my past.”
Donalds says FL should counter Democrats by redistricting. That’s illegal here
Byron Donalds said “Florida needs to respond” to Virginia by redrawing Congressional districts, but partisan gerrymandering is barred here.
THE WEEK OF APRIL 13, 2026
- Science groups criticize proposed budget cuts - Congress to hold budget hearings - White House abandons indirect costs case
WATCH LIVE: Senate returns from recess to consider judicial nominee after Iran talks come up short
Paul Renner calls for Obamacare repeal before GOP loses control of Congress
'We may not have a majority.'
Eric Swalwell’s downfall, explained
The accusations that forced out the frontrunner in California’s governor race — and could push him from Congress next.
The Iran war may be on pause but the political fallout is not
The political consequences for President Trump and congressional Republicans are far from over.
Sam Wang, Politician-in-Training
The neuroscientist went from analyzing elections to running for Congress. But can this rookie win over New Jersey locals—and Trump voters?
US intel officials scramble to keep surveillance law running amid Iran war tensions
With just days until a powerful surveillance law lapses, US national security officials are scrambling to prepare for potential blind spots in intelligence collection amid the US’ delicate ceasefire with Iran, current and former officials told CNN.
DHS investigating claim about Swalwell nanny filed by conspiracy theorist
Joel Gilbert, who mailed anti-Barack Obama film to voters in 2012, accuses congressman of violating immigration law
Adam Kinzinger visits Tufts to discuss US politics, a look into the future
Members of the Tufts community sat in a packed auditorium on Wednesday evening while former Congressman Adam Kinzinger reflected on a decision that solidified his reputation and legacy within the American political sphere.
‘Chilling effect’ of Trump science cuts – even if reversed again
Congress likely to once more block plans to cut billions from agency budgets, but experts fear they will have long-term impact anyway
Swalwell faces pressure to resign from Congress as former staffers denounce alleged misconduct in new letter
A letter signed by more than 50 former staffers of Rep. Eric Swalwell described recent allegations of sexual assault and misconduct against him as “serious” and “credible,” while demanding he resign from Congress and drop his bid for California governor.
Calls grow for Eric Swalwell to exit politics over sexual assault allegations
An expanding number of Democrats, including fellow Californians, are asking their House colleague to quit his campaign for governor and resign from Congress.
Dem. Congressman: ‘Eric Swalwell needs to resign, needs to drop out of the race’ for CA gov
Column: Bye, bye Eric. Swalwell needs to go
Swalwell needs to drop out of the governor's race and resign from Congress.
Fix, heal and rebuild: Wiener’s plan for Congress
The State Senator asks voters to look at his record when making a choice about who will be their next U.S. Representative.
Christmas Vacation and Congress: 'We're all in misery' amid the ongoing DHS shutdown
Fox News' Chad Pergram discusses Congress' prolonged DHS shutdown and the risky tactics associated with it as political divisions threaten deeper government funding crises.
How we reported on KY's 4th Congressional District, Massie, and Trump
How The Enquirer reported on the Massie-Gallrein race throughout the congressional district.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Ted Yoho backs Paul Renner for Governor
A former Congressman from North Florida backs a former House Speaker in the Governor's race.
For aging Supreme Court justices, the politics of retirement looms large
Discussion among experts about a possible Supreme Court vacancy has increased as two men draw closer to the average age of retirement for Supreme Court justices since 2000 and with the November congressional elections looming.
Mike Johnson, Steve Scalise face a long, difficult to-do list as Congress returns
WASHINGTON — U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise return to Capitol Hill Monday afternoon after a two-week Easter break with a long list of “must
A longshot, upset bid and a few quick takes
It is hard to keep up these days. The flow of news often seems overwhelming. Let’s focus today on an unusual congressional race before moving on to a few quick, supplementary observations. Since its creation 54 years ago, Congressional District 5 has been represented by a grand total of five people – Bill Armstrong, Ken […]
Texas House committee slaps Democrats with nearly $422K in penalties for 2025 quorum break
The Committee on House Administration voted along party lines to fine 50-plus Democratic members more than $8,000 apiece for fleeing the state to try to block a GOP-led congressional redistricting plan.
How Congress’s bipartisan high point led to our era of political rancor
36 years ago, a Republican president and Democratic lawmakers produced monumental laws. Now, a broken Congress has enabled Trump to undo key parts of that legacy.
Exclusive: Four women describe sexual misconduct by Rep. Eric Swalwell, including a former staffer who says he raped her
A former staffer of Rep. Eric Swalwell, a leading Democratic candidate for California governor, says that the congressman raped her when she was heavily intoxicated, an allegation Swalwell strongly denies.
Accusation of sexual assault threatens Swalwell governor bid
The Democrat running for governor categorically denied any misconduct involving congressional staffers. Then the San Francisco Chronicle published an article quoting an alleged victim.
Candidates for California governor call on Swalwell to drop out after allegations of sexual assault
The Democratic congressmember came under pressure after the San Francisco Chronicle reported that a former staffer alleged the congressmember sexually assaulted her.
Efforts to establish social media guardrails for children stall in Congress
Experts say one factor is lobbying by Big Tech, which spent over $100 million last year
Former Bronx and Westchester Rep. Eliot Engel dies at 79
A Bronx native, Engel served in the state Assembly from 1977 until 1988, when he successfully ran for Congress.
Burned Before, Democrats Abruptly Revive the Idea of Impeaching Trump
Democrats in Congress have assiduously avoided talk of a third impeachment of President Trump, concerned that it would distract from their midterm campaign message. That tide seems to have turned.
Homeland Security Workers Get Paid, but the Next Check Is Uncertain
The lack of clarity has frustrated employees as Congress battles over how to fund the department.
Why many Trump-supporting business owners hope Democrats win the midterms
If the Democrats control Congress, we will have a deadlocked government. And business owners like me will breathe a sigh of relief. We could use a couple of years of inaction to actually focus on o…
Letters to the Editor: Anyone with political aspirations should be fighting to stop Trump
'Everyone knows President Trump is out of control, and yet Congress and the Supreme Court sit back and watch as we circle the drain,' writes an L.A. Times reader.
Two Carolina juniors named 2026 Goldwater scholars - College of Arts and Sciences
Anish Aradhey and Paul Hamrick, both juniors at Carolina, were selected for the prestigious Barry Goldwater scholarship. Established by Congress in 1986, the scholarship is designed to identify and support the next generation of research scientists.
Democrats blast coming congressional redistricting session: ‘This is illegal’
For now, Republicans are pushing forward.
Former members of Congress visit Rice to discuss politics, public service and civil dialogue
Students at Rice had the opportunity to engage directly with former members of Congress from different political parties during a two-day campus visit that emphasized civil dialogue, public service and the role of politics in everyday life.
Government Comes After Costco, Walmart, and Sam’s Club’s Business Model
Congress should think long and hard before moving S. 4147 forward.
KAMIKURA: Weaponization of religion in U.S. politics
In the U.S. Constitution, written in 1787, the founders did not mention any god. In god's absence on paper, the founders reinforce the separation of church and state. The First Amendment, passed in 1789 and ratified in 1791 in the Bill of Rights, states that Congress may not do anything to legislatively restrict the free practice of religion. But in the current political climate, the state and church are becoming increasingly intertwined.
In this era of political violence, candidate security costs are higher, new report says
Security spending for congressional and presidential campaigns has jumped fivefold over the past decade as an increasingly hostile political environment has led to escalating threats against public officials, ranging from doxing to assassination plots, according to a report released Thursday.
Automatic military draft registration takes effect in December. Here’s how it would work
Young, eligible men will be automatically registered for the military draft pool starting in December as part of a measure tucked into the annual defense policy bill Congress signed into law late last year.
‘A clear and present danger to the country": Democratic Congresswoman on calls for Pres. Trump to be removed from office
Republicans block effort to halt Trump's war with Iran after 'civilization' threat
House Democrats tried to force a vote on a war powers resolution during recess. Senate Democrats will launch a more serious attempt to rein in Trump when Congress returns next week.