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Trump refers to Black man from racially offensive 1988 campaign ad while stumping in North Carolina
President Donald Trump is using a controversial campaign ad from 1988 to criticize Democrats on crime
Farmer who voted for Trump says "I can't stay in business" amid rising costs
Trump's targeting of Haitian immigrants takes toll on US healthcare system
Like many Haitian healthcare workers in the United States, Rachelle has been forced into hiding by US President Donald Trump's anti-immigrant policies.In Florida, home to a large chunk of the Haitian ...
Trump Moves Ahead With F-35 Jet Sales to Saudi Arabia Despite Intelligence Concerns
U.S. intelligence agencies have warned in internal reports that China could acquire or steal U.S. warplane technology if F-35 jets are sent to Saudi Arabia.
Former Institute of Peace Workers Warn Trump May Push to Engrave Name on Building
As part of a lawsuit, the workers have asked a federal court to stop any plans to engrave the building with President Trump’s name.
Work has stopped on system that was key to Trump effort to limit mail voting, USPS chief says
The top official at the U.S. Postal Service said Thursday that the agency has stopped work on developing a controversial computer system that was central to President Donald Trump’s effort to limit mail voting after the Supreme Court rejected his executive order this week.
Man who sprayed Rep. Ilhan Omar with vinegar sentenced to 14 months in prison
The man who sprayed vinegar at Democratic U.S. Rep. Ilhan Omar during a Minneapolis town hall was sentenced Thursday to 14 months in prison after reaching a deal with prosecutors.
Josh Shapiro wades into AI debate with call for ‘strict guardrails’
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro on Thursday called for greater federal regulation of artificial intelligence while criticizing President Donald Trump for minimizing concerns, saying “We cannot ignore the warning signs nor downplay the very real risks.”
Trump ordered DOJ not to appeal ruling that loosened limits on "gangster weapons," sources say
President Trump ordered the Justice Department not to appeal a court ruling that loosened restrictions on firearms known as "gangster weapons," sources familiar with the matter told CBS News.
Trump Wants Putin to End the War. He May Offer Russia Business Deals First.
A new sanctions bill is meant to pressure President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to end the war in Ukraine. But President Trump is doubling down on a different approach: offering enticements to Russia.
Trump's push to restrict mail ballots failed. Other efforts to reshape the midterms continue
The Supreme Court this week closed the chapter on one of Trump’s effort to dramatically overhaul of the nation’s mail voting processes. But the case was just one example of the Republican president’s numerous attempts to assert federal control over the upcoming midterms.
If anyone can defy 'political gravity' it's Trump and his team: Kellyanne Conway
Former Trump senior counselor Kellyanne Conway analyzes new polling ahead of the midterms and discusses voter concerns over the cost of living, inflation, and key Senate races, on 'The Story.'
Tom Tiffany’s wish to delist the gray wolves may come true
President Donald Trump is directing the Interior Department to consider removing protections for the wolves.
Republicans seek daylight with Trump: From the Politics Desk
Plus, how AI concerns are — and aren’t — manifesting on the campaign trail.
How Trump’s new green-card policy could affect immigrant families
The policy, set to take effect Friday, would give immigration officers broader authority to deny permanent residency to people using public benefits.
JD Vance’s telling ‘give us another chance’ flub
Vice President JD Vance this week asked voters for “another chance” — something that is decidedly contrary to President Donald Trump’s midterm messaging — before seeming to catch himself.
Kennedy tells anti-vaccine activists they have a friend in Trump’s White House
RFK Jr. gave the keynote address Thursday at a conference of an anti-vaccine activist group he once chaired
New York voters can expect no changes to mail-in ballot process
The Supreme Court on Monday rejected efforts from the Trump administration to restrict mail-in ballots for the midterm elections.
Jon Kyl, long-serving lawmaker from Arizona who shaped water policy, dies at 84
Kyl spent almost three decades in Congress, serving in both chambers, and watched his party undergo a drastic transformation, with his career spanning Ronald Reagan’s presidency to President Donald Trump’s first term.
Stein slams Trump’s claims on NC crime, Helene: ‘Just political nonsense’
President Donald Trump depicted North Carolina as lawless and crime-ridden during a speech in Gastonia. Public safety data shows crime is actually down, and even Trump’s own attorney general praised North Carolina’s declining crime rates.
Roundup: Space Force academy / Louisiana Innovation / Data center power
Louisiana enters race: Louisiana is seeking to become the home of a new national academy for the U.S. Space Force after President Donald Trump signed an executive order calling for its creation and NASA opened the application process to states. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana, Gov. Jeff Landry’s administration and regional economic development […]
Fact-checking President Trump's N.C. speech
Some of President Donald Trump’s comments at a rally for North Carolina U.S. Senate candidate Michael Whatley Wednesday are receiving some significant pushback, especially his remarks on crime and the response to Tropical Storm Helene.
Is Trump demolishing the Kennedy Center? What to know about crisis
A photo of President Trump reviewing what looks to be a rendering of a demolished Kennedy Center was featured in a court filing Thursday asking for an emergency hearing over the center's recent closure.
Kevin Warsh just defied Donald Trump. Now what?
The Federal Reserve’s first rate hike in three years has ushered in a new twist to the already unusual relationship between President Donald Trump and the world’s most powerful central bank.
About 35 million people have been put into new House districts in the fight over congressional maps, report says
The findings display the stark overhaul that partisan redistricting fights kicked off by President Donald Trump last year have caused for Americans across the country.
America’s hunters get an exclusive seat at Trump’s White House table as he takes aim at Biden-era rules
Trump will sign two executive orders at the White House expanding hunting on public lands and offshore recreational fishing before a Rose Garden dinner.
Trump’s Hand-Picked Fed Chair Basically Gave the Finger to Absurd Inflation Demands
It’s good to know that not everyone bows to our bumbling leader’s ego.
'Trust me on AI,' oligarch's wedding gift, Jolly: Florida politics
President Donald Trump says nothing to see here in a scary artificial intelligence break out. Check out the latest episode of Inside Florida Politics.
'Trust me on AI,' oligarch's wedding gift, Jolly: Florida politics
President Donald Trump says nothing to see here in a scary artificial intelligence break out. Check out the latest episode of Inside Florida Politics.
Is Trump Demolishing the Kennedy Center? Breaking Down the Legal Fight Over Funding and Naming
President Donald Trump and his allies on the board of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts are engaged in an escalating legal battle over the future of the institution, with the building itself now closed to the public and surrounded by fencing. After a federal judge this week ruled ...
Will Trump actually send out $5,000 checks after the midterms?
Polling says voters do not believe the president’s claims
AI crisis heightens the stakes of Xi’s visit to Washington
WASHINGTON — A growing sense of urgency over the risks posed by artificial intelligence is adding pressure on the Trump administration to secure a diplomatic breakthrough with China when President
Florida congresswoman running for reelection breaks with Trump on immigration
Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar is out with a new ad criticizing President Donald Trump’s deportation campaign.
Trump is getting more brazen about using his office for political and personal gain
Few things have defined President Donald Trump’s second term as much as his transactionalism. He’s gone to great lengths to wield potential official actions for political and even personal gain in ways simply not seen since at least Watergate.
Environment, health groups sue over Trump move to wipe out climate rules for power plants
Environmental and public health-focused organizations are suing the Trump administration over its move to wipe out most climate regulations on coal and gas power plants. The Natural Resources Defen…
President Trump is bringing healthy food from harvest to hallways
The Trump administration is launching initiatives to improve school nutrition by increasing farm-to-school grant funding and investing in cafeteria equipment upgrades.
Kennedy Center says building closed temporarily due to ‘acute risks to public safety’
A top official at the Kennedy Center says he closed the iconic performing arts center temporarily due to “acute risks to public safety resulting from continued structural deterioration” of the aging building.
Kennedy Center says building closed temporarily due to 'acute risks to public safety'
A top official at the Kennedy Center says he closed the iconic performing arts center temporarily due to “acute risks to public safety resulting from continued structural deterioration” of the aging building | KNSS Radio
Kennedy Center says building closed temporarily due to 'acute risks to public safety'
A top official at the Kennedy Center says he closed the iconic performing arts center temporarily due to “acute risks to public safety resulting from continued structural deterioration” of the aging building | WBBM Newsradio 780 AM & 105.9 FM
Kennedy Center says building closed temporarily due to 'acute risks to public safety'
A top official at the Kennedy Center says he closed the iconic performing arts centers temporarily due to “acute risks to public safety resulting from continued structural deterioration” of the aging building | KMBZ
G.O.P. Representative Breaks With Trump in Ad: Hispanics ‘Feel Betrayed’
Representative María Elvira Salazar, a three-term representative from Miami, won re-election by 20 percentage points in 2024. Her ad suggests worry among some Republicans about their standing with Hispanic voters.
Fact Check Team: Smithsonian and Kennedy Center face scrutiny over politics
The Smithsonian and Kennedy Center are facing questions about the role of politics in America's cultural institutions during Trump's second term.
GM delivers first Patriot missile parts amid push toward defense work
The automaker took on the work after President Trump pushed to replenish a dwindling supply of missiles and munitions.
Steph Ruhle kicks off the first ever live show of Money Power Politics
We are just 47 days away from the midterm elections and polling shows Americans are not happy with President Trump's economic policies. MS NOW Political Director Shawna Thomas, MS NOW Business Analyst Ron Insana, Axios Co-founders Mike Allen and Jim Vandehei join Stephanie Ruhle for the first ever live show of "Money Power Politics" to share their analysis.
Belief That Diversity Drives Profit Surges 10 Points To 71% In The US
The Trump administration has led a pull back on diversity and inclusion programs, but Americans think they benefit businesses in more ways than one.
National Security Science and Technology Strategy Highlights Expanded Role for Export Controls, Investment Screening, and Data Security
On August 20, 2026, the White House released the National Security Science and Technology Strategy (“NSSTS“), which establishes the Trump administration’s framework for maintaining US technological leadership and protecting critical and emerging technologies. The NSSTS is organized around four pillars: (1) focusing techno-strategic competition, (2) building technological resilience, (3) accelerating innovation, and (4) protecting national
Carney embraces EU associate membership proposal as Trump pushes Canada closer to Europe
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Thursday embraced the prospect of his country becoming the European Union’s first associate member, saying closer ties with the continent would ensure no country could control Canada’s markets or undermine its sovereignty.
As Canadian tariffs bite, Republicans search for a winning message
Candidates in northern border states most affected try to strike a balance between appealing to Trump’s loyal base and reaching independent voters.
The Latest: Trump says EU allowing Canada as associate member could be a ‘hostile act’
President Donald Trump suggested that the European Union allowing Canada to become an associate member could be a “hostile act” and threatened to respond to the proposed move by imposing more tariffs on the bloc
The U.S. Chamber is Working Tirelessly to Defend the Trump Administration’s Deregulatory Initiatives, Preserving Benefits for American Business
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce Litigation Center is fighting on two fronts — defending Trump-era deregulation in court and challenging unlawful Biden-era regulations — to ensure pro-growth policies endure beyond political shifts.
Trump administration live updates: Americans give AI in schools a poor grade
Live updates and the latest news on the Trump administration as Americans give AI in schools a poor grade, Trump focuses on crime in N.C. rally remarks and a U.N. mission finds grounds for U.S. war crimes in Iran.
‘It’s a raise against Trump:’ Despite inflation being ahead of target for five years, Trump says the Fed’s latest hike is political
"The problem they have is that we have the greatest economy in history ... so they're raising that only for political reasons, and that's a raise against Trump."
What Will Trump Pick Mean For World Food Programme And Humanitarians?
Is the World Food Programme getting Luke Lindberg, “America First” Trump appointee, or Luke Lindberg, rookie international civil servant and impartial
The Strange New Politics of AI. Plus. . .
It’s Thursday, September 17. This is The Front Page, your daily window into the world of The Free Press—and our take on the world at large. Today: Douglas Murray asks, why do we allow terrorists to die of old age? The American nonprofits backing Hamas. A conversation with Dara Horn and Coleman Hughes. And much more. But first: inside the unlikely coalition warning that AI may kill us all. Last week, an AI researcher named Jacob Coxon made headlines around the world after saying that he had resigned from Anthropic because he believes AI might cause human extinction—and his co-workers do, too. Unlike the rest of us, potentially, the story just won’t die. The Pro-Human Assembly, a conference held Tuesday in Washington, D.C., about the existential dangers of artificial intelligence, couldn’t have come at a better time—or with a more eclectic coalition. The Archbishop of San Francisco was there. So was Steve Bannon, screaming about the Chinese. Bernie Sanders did a quasi-dramatic reading of messages posted to an online forum by rogue AI agents. Ashley Judd paraphrased a graphic Andrea Dworkin quote for reasons that remain a mystery to me still. It was odd. People in the AI industry have talked openly about the possibility of this technology causing human extinction for years, but it hits differently in the wake of the Hugging Face incident. If you don’t know what that is, all the more reason to read my dispatch today. As the doomers see it, the best-case scenario is a future in which humans are basically kept as pets: well cared for, but with zero autonomy. The worst-case scenario, obviously, is the everyone dies thing. What should be done? I heard lots of ideas but no easy answers. There are currently zero federal regulations on AI, which is sort of strange even to think about. After all, we regulate microwaves, and the people running the microwave industry have never once refused to rule out the possibility that their products will end all human life on Earth. What I saw in D.C. left me even more convinced that you would be hard-pressed to find anyone who believes nothing should be done. You know, except for President Trump. — River Page River Page • Tech and Business [ The AI Doomers Have a Plan to Save Us. I Went to Find Out What It Is. ](https://www.thefp.com/p/the-ai-doomers-have-plan-save-bernie-sanders-bannon) Read story How Robert Kraft Made Macklemore a Martyr—and How to Better Fight Antisemitism On Monday, New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft and a group of other NFL owners banned Macklemore from performing at their stadiums after the rapper delivered a “Free Palestine” speech while opening for Ed Sheeran. Kraft cited the rapper’s “broader history of antisemitic rhetoric and imagery.” Once multiple venues refused to host shows with Macklemore on the lineup, the tour’s promoter officially dropped him. Today, Josh Kaplan says that the move was counterproductive, arguing that though well-intentioned, Kraft’s decision turned an irrelevant footnote into a martyr. “You cannot cancel people into liking you,” Josh writes. Read his column on what a better response to Macklemore would have looked like. Read [ Robert Kraft Made Macklemore a Martyr ](https://www.thefp.com/p/robert-kraft-made-macklemore-martyr-antisemitism-palestine) This raises the question: What actually works against antisemitism? On the latest episode of Conversations with Coleman, recorded in front of a live audience in New York, Dara Horn joins Coleman Hughes to talk about her new book The Final Solution to the Jewish Question. She argues that antisemitism is a script that has repeated itself across countries and ideologies, and that most people don’t understand that well enough to fight it. Don’t miss their conversation. Watch [ The Lie at the Center of Antisemitism, with Dara Horn ](https://www.thefp.com/p/the-lie-at-the-center-of-antisemitism-coleman-hughes-dana-horn) Listen now Douglas Murray • U.S. Politics [ Douglas Murray: The 9/11 Failure That Still Haunts America ](https://www.thefp.com/p/douglas-murray-911-failure-justice-terrorist-guantanamo-bay) Twenty-five years after the September 11 attacks, the men who planned them have still not faced trial. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and most of the accused have been locked up in Guantanamo Bay since 2002. Judges have retired, and plea deals have collapsed. Today, Douglas Murray examines how this happened and argues that a justice system that allows terrorists to die of old age in an interminable pretrial process is one that has failed. Read his latest column on what that failure says about our unpreparedness for the era we are now living in. Read story The Editors • U.S. Politics [ When Nonprofits Support Terrorists ](https://www.thefp.com/p/when-nonprofits-support-terrorists) A newly declassified CIA brief from 1998 found that Osama bin Laden used nonprofit shell organizations—including U.S.-based Islamic groups—to fund his terror plots. Today, a similar story is unfolding as multiple organizations on American soil present themselves as nonprofits, taking advantage of tax-exempt status while seeking to advance the ideological mission of terrorist groups like Hamas. Read our editorial on the latest evidence of this dangerous trend—and why there’s no excuse for making the same mistake the CIA revealed 28 years ago. Read story Simon Sebag Montefiore and Bari Weiss Live in New York For decades, the Middle East has shaped American foreign policy and loomed large in the public consciousness. Few understand its influence on our politics better than Simon Sebag Montefiore, who argues that America’s quagmires in the Middle East stem from a deep misunderstanding of the region—on both the left and the right. Join him October 1 as he sits down with Bari Weiss live in New York City to kick off his U.S. book tour for The Cauldron: The Making of the Modern Middle East. Get Tickets Now MORE FROM THE FREE PRESS [ Sydney Sweeney’s Naked Truth ](https://www.thefp.com/p/sydney-sweeneys-naked-truth-caitlin-flanagan) Caitlin Flanagan Read story [ I Thought Ukraine Was Losing. Then I Was Almost Hit by a Russian Drone. ](https://www.thefp.com/p/elliot-ackerman-ukraine-drone-gas-station-train) Elliot Ackerman Read story [ The Dangerous Ideology Behind the AI Warnings ](https://www.thefp.com/p/dangerous-ideology-effective-altruism-artificial-intelligence) Shyam Sankar Read story [ Amanda Knox: Patrick Clancy Can’t Win ](https://www.thefp.com/p/amanda-knox-patrick-clancy-grief-internet-crime) Amanda Knox Read story THE NEWS The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point, its first hike since 2023, signaling that another increase could follow as the central bank tries to bring inflation under control. President Donald Trump fired back by demanding that rates be cut sharply, though he stopped short of criticizing Fed Chair Kevin Warsh by name. The Houthis fired drones and missiles at Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, including a major oil port on the Red Sea, and Saudi jets struck back with air strikes across Yemen in an escalating front of the Middle East war. (For more on the Houthis, read Zineb Riboua’s column from earlier this week.) A sweeping Russia and Iran sanctions bill passed the House in a 262–159 vote and is now heading to Trump for his signature. Named after the late senator Lindsey Graham, the legislation would hit countries that purchase large volumes of Russian oil and gas with tariffs of up to 100 percent, and is aimed at cutting off revenue that funds Russia’s war in Ukraine. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen proposed making Canada the European Union’s first-ever “associate member,” drawing a standing ovation from European lawmakers. The proposal, framed as a response to a world grown more hostile, faces an uncertain path as EU member states would have to approve it, and one diplomat said that “nobody really knows what it means.” The House voted unanimously to send billionaire Leon Black a criminal contempt referral after he defied a congressional subpoena to testify and hand over documents related to his connections to Jeffrey Epstein. Black chose to fight the subpoena in court rather than comply. Charlie Kirk’s family filed a wrongful death notice Wednesday against Utah Valley University, alleging that a series of security failures left him exposed to a rooftop sniper. The notice is a required legal step before the family can sue. Merriam-Webster added 1,400 words and definitions to its dictionary, including looksmaxxing, vibe coding, and cuffing season. The publisher said the new entries offer “a window into the world today.” The Free Press earns a commission from any purchases made through all book links in this article.
kraft-politics- Trump-kennedy-center
Because the courts won’t allow Trump to put his name on the Kennedy Center, he is doing everything in his power to shut it down.
Trump, Whatley emphasize administration’s track record at rally
President Donald Trump has tested his midterm campaign appeal in North Carolina as he tries to help his handpicked Republican Senate hopeful and former national party chairman.
Pete Buttigieg rallies with Mike Lawler challenger in competitive House race
Cait Conley attacked Mike Lawler over his ties to President Trump.
Who Will Win the Midterms? Republicans Are Reeling.
The party is putting up a costly defense of states and districts that President Trump won easily in 2024. And in places like Georgia, strategists wonder if it’s too late.
Analysis | Trump won by latching on to popular issues. He’s doing the opposite on AI.
It's been stunning to see this president so firmly position himself on the unpopular side of the debate around AI and data centers.
Pediatricians raise the alarm on the effect of Trump's immigration crackdown on kids
The Trump administration has been pursuing a quiet immigration crackdown strategy: limiting access to health care and public services. The American Academy of Pediatrics is sounding the alarm about the impact on children.
Trump bashes Democrats on crime while campaigning for Michael Whatley in North Carolina
Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman, is facing former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper in a critical race that will help decide which party controls the Senate.
Mike Minogue, Republican candidate for Massachusetts governor, talks Trump, party politics
Trump emphasizes crime in midterm push in North Carolina
The president made violent crime the central issue in his first large-scale outdoor rally this year and cites the GOP’s 1988 “Willie Horton” attack ad on Democratic nominee Michael S. Dukakis.
Trump tests the limits of political make-believe in North Carolina
‘Some of you like me more than you like the party,’ US president tells small crowd in a speech that no major network covered live
Trump says Fed is raising interest rates for political reasons
President Donald Trump comments on Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh raising interest rates.
House approves sweeping Russia sanctions bill, sending it to Trump
The legislation represents the most ambitious effort to support Ukraine since President Donald Trump’s return to the White House
Researchers sue National Institutes of Health over censorship claims
Researchers are suing against the National Institutes of Health, saying that grant funding is used to censor topics the Trump administration dislikes.
Scientists challenge US NIH grant screening as unconstitutional
A group of scientists filed a class-action lawsuit on Wednesday against the U.S. National Institutes of Health, alleging the agency is unconstitutionally screening research grants to suppress viewpoints the Trump administration disfavors on topics like diversity, gender identity and climate change.
Scientists Challenge US NIH Grant Screening as Unconstitutional
By Ahmed Aboulenein WASHINGTON, Sept 16 (Reuters) - A group of scientists filed a class-action lawsuit on Wednesday against the U.S. National Institutes of Health, alleging the agency is unconstitutionally screening research grants to suppress viewpoints the Trump administration disfavors on ...
Trump Wanted Canada as the 51st State. He Ended Up Pushing It Toward the European Union.
The invitation by the E.U. for Canada to become an “associate member” is a sign of Mr. Trump’s brand of diplomacy, which often involves threatening America’s closest friends.
House passes Russia sanctions bill named for Lindsey Graham, sending it to Trump
The legislation passed the Senate last month. It targets Russia’s energy sector by punishing the largest buyers of its oil and gas to slash revenues Russia uses to attack Ukraine.
House passes Russia sanctions, sending bill named for Lindsey Graham to Trump's desk
The legislation was named for the late South Carolina Republican. It gives the president authority to impose tariffs on top importers of oil and natural gas from Russia, such as China and India.
Trump’s latest branding battle: From the Politics Desk
Plus, new GOP cracks emerge over the Iran war as midterms loom.
Nebraska Senate candidate responds to leaked audio criticizing Trump voters: ‘We’re all angry right now’
Nebraska independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn on Wednesday appeared to confirm the authenticity of a leaked recording in which he is purported to criticize voters who support President Donald Trump.
Benson, James pitch tariff remedies, business boosts & data center limits at Detroit Economic Club
DETROIT — The respective Republican and Democratic nominees for Michigan governor on Wednesday each proposed new solutions to the economic tariffs levied by the administration of President Donald Trump, especially those being used against Canada. Addressing the Detroit Economic Club on Wednesday afternoon in separate speaking events were Republican U.S. Rep. John James and Democrat […]
NYC teachers union flexes political muscle in bid to unwind Hochul support for Trump voucher plan
The teachers unions and their allies questioned the Trump administration’s motivations, warning the new program could divert enrollment and per-pupil funding from public schools, and redirect resources to private schools with less…
White House chief of staff Susie Wiles announces she is cancer free
White House chief of staff Susie Wiles announced Wednesday that she is cancer free, sharing the news in a post on social media and thanking President Donald Trump for his support throughout her treatment.
Congress on track to approve major Russia sanctions bill — that could hand new tariff powers to Trump
Congress is poised to deliver President Donald Trump one final win ahead of the midterms — a major Russia sanctions bill that critics warn will empower him to impose sweeping new tariffs that could reverberate across the economy.
What Does the Science of Climate Change Really Look Like?
Editor’s Note: This is the second in a three-part series on how the Right should think about environmental and climate policy. Read Chris Barnard on Reclaiming Environmental Policy from the Left. More than a decade ago, the world’s governments negotiated and signed the Paris Climate Agreement, committing to hold global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius. In the following years, climate had immense cultural power. Greta Thunberg emerged. Fortune 500 companies established net-zero plans. The U.S. got the Inflation Reduction Act. Then the pendulum swung back. President Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office, speaking of green energy as a “scam” and carbon footprints as a “hoax” and on all matters of international policy emphasizing bilateral engagement and power over globalism and cooperation. The technology companies that had been at the forefront of net-zero pledges and green leadership discovered the importance of all-of-the-above power to their visions for artificial intelligence and began quietly postponing or removing their targets. On the left side of the political spectrum, rising concerns about inflation and cost pushed climate lower down in the stated priorities of voters and stump speeches of politicians. The moment is ripe for a reset on the politics of climate change and for conservatives especially to chart a course that acknowledges and addresses the real challenges in plausible ways. So what should we think about climate change as we enter a post-peak climate era? If it is neither an apocalypse nor a hoax, what will hold up as a durable view of climate change? And how does it project onto the concerns and priorities of the right-of-center’s emerging coalition? New to Commonplace_? Subscribe below to get the magazine in your inbox._ Subscribe A Solid Foundation As the politics and economics of climate careened over the past ten years, the physics carried on regardless. In 2015, the year the Paris Climate Agreement was adopted, the world emitted 41.2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. By 2025, emissions had risen only 2.4%, to 42.2 gigatonnes, because falling emissions from land use offset increasing emissions from fossil fuels. But slow growth in annual emissions is not rapid decline, let alone net-zero, so carbon dioxide kept accumulating in the atmosphere, going from 399 to 426 parts per million. Global temperature kept rising too, from about 1.1 degrees Celsius above the 1850–1900 average in 2015, to 1.4 degrees above it in 2025. None of this should surprise anyone. Even most prominent skeptics, like the authors of the 2025 report commissioned by the Trump administration’s Department of Energy, accept the basic physics. Carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere at industrial volumes accumulates and traps heat that would otherwise escape to space. That heat warms the upper ocean and increases temperatures at the surface. Increased ocean heat and melting of land ice cause sea levels to rise. Changes in the climate become noticeable to us as subtle shifts in temperature and precipitation, seasons arriving early or late, changes in the surrounding ecosystem, and weather extremes. The much more meaningful debate is not about whether these things are happening, but about what it all means for human societies. (While it is a proxy measure of overall risk, no one experiences global surface temperature.) This debate invokes at least three interesting questions: how much today’s warming is showing up in regional climate trends, how much more warming we should anticipate, and how extreme weather events can be understood in the context of climate change. Recent scientific advances give us new insights into each of these, but there is still much to learn. This is the context in which the next generation of conservative leaders will be the first to deal with significant climate change as a fact, not a forecast. It will be with them for their entire careers. Our evolving scientific picture of climate change will come from weather and climate records stretching further into the past, new kinds of observations in the present, better modeling tools for the future, and simply more time to observe the emergence of climate signals and their tangible effects on ecosystems and communities in the United States and around the world. The policy landscape will be shaped by not only the impacts of changes in the climate, but also by the ways in which societies respond and by the emergence of new technologies for both altering the trajectory of emissions and adapting to new climate realities. Global climate records now show the fingerprints of warming in different phenomena around much of the world. The IPCC, in its most recent assessment report, documents warming trends over all land regions, even as natural variability adds substantial variance to local trends. And the highest temperature extremes have become more intense and frequent, almost everywhere, since the 1950s. Scientists are highly confident that these changes are attributable to human influence. But confidence in detecting trends and attributing them to human influence degrades across heavy precipitation events; drought trends are heterogeneous and not attributable to human activity with great confidence. For hurricanes, tornadoes, and other severe storms there is even less confidence in trends or their relationship to climate change. In general, a fair summary of the evidence is that for well-observed phenomena, like surface temperature or heavy rainfall, with a clear relationship to warming, our multidecadal observations are consistent with human influence overcoming natural variability over long time periods and extremes increasing. For regions that are sampled more sparsely, or phenomena with a higher noise-to-signal ratio, we will need to observe them longer to understand the magnitude of the climate signal or improve dynamical understanding using models and observations together. But for Climate For those who can’t wait, we also have new techniques that attempt to understand the role climate change has in influencing particular extreme events. When the climate is changing and disaster strikes, it is natural to ask whether that disaster was somehow “caused” by climate change. For scientists and policymakers acting in good faith, answering that question helps develop a more accurate picture of the problem, how it may be getting worse, and what preparations we should be making to respond to it. It may, at some point, give some weight to how liability is assigned by courts or adaptation funding is distributed by society. But how we ask this question is extremely important. It is easy to get the analysis wrong by discounting the role that meteorology plays. As meteorologist Theodore Shepherd explained in a clear 2016 review of climate attribution methods, “if a weather or climate event is truly extreme in the present climate, then perforce it requires unusual meteorological conditions, which means that climate change is at most a contributing factor.” Share Scientists have two ways to probe climate as a contributing factor, both of which have entered media coverage of extreme weather events. One asks a probabilistic question: How much more likely is a particular event (e.g., a temperature record over a particular area) amid global warming? The answer involves using historical records and computer simulations to estimate the likelihood of such an event in both a changed and a preindustrial climate. The findings are less about the specific event, and more about events of that nature. The other question is: How has the changed climate affected the specific event in question? Here, scientists try to understand what a similar event would have looked like in the preindustrial climate. This is sometimes called the storyline approach, where the story is the specific meteorological details of the event. These methods offer ways to test the intuition of scientists about real weather extremes. In late June and early July of 2021, a persistent high-pressure ridge, or heat dome, set up over the Pacific Northwest and an extraordinary heat wave affected the area from Oregon to British Columbia. For six days, it shattered temperature records across the region and hundreds died from heat-related causes, in an area where such high, and persistently high, temperatures were well outside of experience and many live without air conditioning. Scientists have studied its connection to climate change using multiple approaches. This specific event was created by a rare combination of meteorological factors, a strong high-pressure ridge created the conditions for extreme heat, which occurred on top of higher average temperatures in the region from global warming. Probabilistic analyses showed that climate change increased the likelihood of such an event by at least 8-fold to more than 100-fold. One standout example found that such an event had effectively zero probability of occurring in the preindustrial climate. The enormous range in these assessments reflects how hard it is to estimate probabilities of events at the tail of the historical record. Estimates of the effect on the temperature of the event are more clustered. A recent review paper documents how multiple methodologies have found a positive influence, roughly 1-2 degrees Celsius of an anomaly that exceeded 15 degrees, of climate change on the temperature magnitude of the event. Multiple studies have investigated and found some positive influence of climate change in other extreme events. Attribution studies found climate likely increased the heavy rainfall that accompanied Hurricane Helene in North Carolina and surrounding regions in 2024. The extensive fires that struck Los Angeles in 2025 illustrate how the causal chain can become messy, though. Studies do detect a positive influence of climate on the event’s likelihood, but while climate change likely contributed to underlying aridity, it would not have played a role in the heavy winds or land practices that preceded disaster. These event attribution studies will become more common for extreme, or damaging, weather events. They can be produced quickly, and often are reported before peer review. As the Pacific Northwest heatwave example shows, when multiple methods converge on a positive attribution, the finding should probably carry some weight even if you have to be careful about accepting the results from a single study. I expect that as climate change proceeds and the climate thus departs further from a preindustrial counterfactual, the influence will become more detectable across a variety of extreme events and more easily identified. This will be used to cast blame, but can also be used to inform how communities and society adapt to ongoing change. We May Still Be Surprised One positive development, insofar as less climate change is better, has been that our central estimates for future climate change should probably be revised downward. Mostly, that is because the high-end warmings that scientists regularly analyzed about ten to 20 years ago, driven by high emissions throughout the twenty-first century, now appear to be somewhere between unlikely and impossible. At one time, the upper end of mainstream climate projections extended well into 4 to 6 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of this century, which, models suggest, would have wrought enormous real-world damage. Current energy and policy trends now point toward 2.5 or 3 degrees. Damages and risks are commonly modeled as increasing steeply with more warming, so this is already a better-than-previously-expected outcome for the climate (which is independent of the physical response to emissions). But we should maintain a wide range for plausible outcomes and prepare for the possibility of being surprised. Emissions trajectories are subject to deep uncertainty, the physical climate response is still developing, and whatever change occurs in the climate will then be mediated through unpredictable economic, social, and political institutions. Over the past decade, the pace of warming surprised some keen observers and appeared to accelerate, though not yet outside the range of expectation provided by climate models. The reasons for that apparent acceleration are being actively studied (as was the apparent pause in warming from 1998 to 2012), but no single driver has emerged. Some blame it on the El Niño, variability which would have no bearing on climate. Some think it is a result of factories in East Asia and global shipping fleets cutting aerosol emissions, which in the strongest version of the argument would indicate higher climate sensitivity to carbon-dioxide emissions. Others are more measured, not yet ready to draw solid conclusions as to whether climate projections require revision. We will have to see. Long-Term Thinking Climate change asks us to think over long time scales. But the pace of human-driven warming is compressing a large global change into a century. Changing weather patterns and extreme events are already causing adjustment costs and damages and will do more. Adaptation will help, but it is not free. For some communities, these costs will erode livelihoods and well-being, and may force migration. Are we prepared for large-scale managed retreats in the United States? Thankfully, American wealth, geographical diversity, and moderate climates may leave us better prepared than many around the world. But wealthy countries can still suffer serious disruption from narrowly concentrated costs, even if they appear entirely manageable in aggregate. Readers of Commonplace are familiar with the challenges of rapidly adapting to economic forces. The displacement that came from the China Shock is barely perceptible in aggregate GDP and employment data, but it affected millions of people and those people were far less mobile than economic models tended to assume. Deindustrialization rippled through the nation with enormous effects for not only our economic vitality, but also our national security. The forces surrounding climate change may not be so different; the world gets richer and must accept some diffuse costs. Those may be modest overall, but cause all manner of unpredictable effects with which policymakers must cope. In the case of the China Shock, our faith in a growing pie served us poorly. We’ll need to do better on climate. Leave a comment
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