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Adam Ray Haydel built a business dynasty in New Orleans
At a time when opportunities for Black business owners were limited, Adam Ray Haydel built multiple enterprises.
Report: Google Chrome lacks a very important feature Microsoft Edge, Firefox, Brave have
Google Chrome lacks maybe the most important protection feature that Mozilla Firefox, Microsoft Edge, and Brave already have.
Speaking with One Voice to Advance Health in America
Two days from now, the AHA will welcome more than 1,000 health care leaders to our 2026 Annual Membership Meeting in Washington, D.C.
Scientists Finally Measured The Mind-Blowing Power of a Black Hole's Jets
Because they found something strong enough to bend them.
Healthcare disparities at the forefront during Black Maternal Health Week, as one AZ mother shares her journey
Experts say most pregnancy-related deaths are preventable, but gaps in care and communication continue to put Black women at higher risk.
Louisiana GOP races to keep an exonerated Black man from taking office in New Orleans
The Louisiana House Judiciary Committee April 16 passed a bill essentially eliminating New Orleans’ clerk of criminal court just weeks before Calvin Duncan, a Black man who was wrongfully imprisoned for decades before being elected to the position last year, is set to take office.
Reps. Adams, Underwood and Sen. Booker Introduce Black Maternal Health Week Resolution
WASHINGTON – Today, U.S. Congresswomen Alma Adams, Ph.D. (D-NC-12) and Lauren Underwood (D-IL-14), along with U.S. Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ), introduced the bicameral resolution recognizing April 11 through April 17 as Black Maternal Health Week.
2 supermassive black holes may collide 100 years from now — and Earth would feel it
In a galaxy 500 million light-years away, two supermassive black holes could merge, spreading gravitational waves across the universe.
Assassin's Creed: Black Flag Resynced Releases July 9, 2026
The upcoming Assassin's Creed Blaf Flag remake, titled Assassin's Creed: Black Flag Resynced, will release on July 9, 2026.
Scientists Say Black Holes Are Breaking Their Own Rules of Physics
A new study suggests that influence from fermionic fields could be causing black holes to defy one of their own core rules.
Blackmagic Camera app gets Apple Watch companion
Blackmagic Design, ahead of NAB 2026, updated its Blackmagic Camera app to include a new Apple Watch control option.
Vermont Natives Provide Entertainment Through Community, Connection, and Headlocks
A Vermont organization has delivered heated rivalries, daring smackdowns, and unique athleticism for decades — and now, it’s back in Barre. Green Mountain Wrestling (GMW) was founded 30 years ago, when Vermont lacked a professional wrestling scene and was rarely the target for major industry events. Launched by Gary Langevin, the group operated out of Newport from 1996 through 2003. During the organization’s early years, Adam Lash began helping with events. A wrestling fan and teenager eager to join the industry, GMW became a career springboard. “As I got older, I became more involved in the broader professional wrestling industry beyond
First-time mom, doula share experience amid Black Maternal Health Week
U.S. Senator to introduce bill aimed at ending sports blackouts, making games easier to watch for fans
The bill aims to prevent fans from having to own subscriptions to multiple streaming services to watch their favorite team.
Texas Western's historic 1966 NCAA champions to join Hall of Fame
The 1966 Texas Western men's basketball team, which made history with an all-Black starting lineup, will join the Texas Sports Hall of Fame.
Connecting to Community Business Leaders through Storytelling
As a part of Montclair State University’s mission, deepening our understanding of shared experiences is an important part of our work. This Spring Session, Bloomfield Campus Library provided the space for an open discussion about leadership for Black and Latina women. Bloomfield Campus Library invited a panel of speakers to reflect on their journeys as […]
Sunderland near another landmark
Sunderland go to Aston Villa with a carrot dangling this weekend. The Black Cats have won 46 points in the Premier League, a tally which is already their most in a top-flight season since 2010-11 (47). Regis le Bris' side have 12 wins in the Premier League during the campaign.
The first black hole ever discovered is spewing 'dancing jets' at half the speed of light
Astronomers have accurately measured the "dancing" energy jets of the first confirmed black hole, Cygnus X-1, more than 60 years after it was first spotted.
James Franklin wanted to spite Penn State after firing. Here's why he didn't
USA TODAY Sports visited James Franklin at Virginia Tech to find out why ex-Penn State coach turned down $49 million vacation to rebuild in Blacksburg
Stephen Hawking's black hole information paradox could be solved — if the universe has 7 dimensions
Stephen Hawking's theory of black hole evaporation clashes with the laws of quantum mechanics. A new paper finds a way around this paradox, provided that the universe has seven dimensions.
Wisconsin Senator Proposes Free Streaming Of Sports Games
U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) is introducing a new bill to stop professional sports leagues from blacking ...
ChatGPT maker OpenAI shifts its focus to business users amid Anthropic pressure
The same ChatGPT chatbot that gave OpenAI’s chief financial officer Sarah Friar a tilapia recipe for a recent Sunday night dinner at home is also now doing her most mundane tasks at work like summarizing her emails and Slack messages.
Unexpected Source of Salt May Be Raising Blood Pressure For Millions
This isn't a lifestyle choice.
Blackhawks extend general manager Kyle Davidson's contract
The Chicago Blackhawks extended general manager Kyle Davidson's contract Wednesday without providing the length of the deal. “We are committing to Kyle to continue the plan he has put in place,” chairman and owner Danny Wirtz said before the team's season-ending game against San Jose. The Blackhawks are locked into 31st place in the 32-team NHL and haven’t made the Stanley Cup playoffs since the expanded COVID playoffs of 2020.
City leaders and advocates address disparities in Black maternal health
SAN FRANCISCO (KRON) — San Francisco policy leaders and community advocates are marking Black Maternal Health Week with a focus on improving outcomes for Black families. The event at City Hall high…
'Show me the money'
What happens when a former senator, a prior governor, a previous representative, and a political advocate talk about corporate money in politics? The exact scenario played out at the MSU-hosted discussion titled “Money, Transparent Elections and the Montana Experience,” at the end of last week. Audience members experienced a bipartisan glimpse into corporate influence, how it is built, spent on campaigns and challenged by voters. A candid conversation emerged between guest speakers former Montana U.S. Senator Jon Tester, former Attorney General and Governor Marc Racicot, previous state senator and representative Jeff Mangan, and political advocate Michel Beckel. The conversation between the four guests circled back to Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, a landmark 2010 Supreme Court ruling allowing corporations, unions, and associations to spend unlimited amounts of money influencing elections. The decision concluded independent political spending is a form of free speech protected by the First Amendment, directly leading to the rise of massive political action committees and ‘dark money’ in U.S. elections spending. Tester was the first to address the ‘black elephant’ in the room. Responses to moderator questions are edited for clarity and brevity. “We are seeing unbelievable sums of money being put out trying to influence people on how to vote,” Tester said. “Oftentimes the truth goes out the window before the campaigning even starts.”
Houston midwife says access to care, systemic racism drive Black maternal deaths; urges prenatal visits
A certified nurse midwife with Ben Taub Hospital says barriers to basic health care along with systemic racism continue to fuel disproportionate maternal deaths among Black women in Harris County, even as Houston sits in the shadow of one of the world’s largest medical centers.
La. Senate panel OKs bill to indoctrinate teens in conservative 'success' ideology
Two Black Democrats on the committee, Katrina Jackson-Andrews and Sidney Barthelemy II, objected to naming the bill after far-right activist Charlie Kirk, who had a history of publicly making racist and other derogatory comments.
Tammy Baldwin targets game blackouts, expensive sports streaming apps
New legislation from Sen. Tammy Baldwin would prohibit league-owned streaming services from blacking out games and require a free option for fans.
Rooted in Justice and Joy: What Black Maternal Health Demands of Us Right Now
Visit the post for more.
On this Jackie Robinson Day, reject this lie Major League Baseball tells about itself
Kevin B. Blackistone: Sports are not a driver of social change
Cuba: Authorities must now release those detained for political reasons and end repression
Amnesty International warns that recent prisoner releases in Cuba continue to be marked by discretion and a lack of transparency, and demands an end to political repression.
Black Maternal Health Week: PRH in Action
PRH highlights Black Maternal Health Week 2026, addressing pregnancy criminalization, racial inequities, and solutions for equitable care.
Kathy Castor, Anna Paulina Luna both want embattled Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, Cory Mills to resign
Lawmakers were also asked if they would expel either Florida colleague.
Governor Stein Recognizes Black Maternal Health Week
Today Governor Josh Stein joined Senator Natalie Murdock, the Legislative Black Caucus, and the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services to…
Voters ousted 3 politicians in Portland’s most purple county. Now they want comebacks
A record 14 candidates are vying for 3 seats in Clackamas County.
How the streaming dream turned sports on TV into a costly maze
What began as a fan-friendly revolution has splintered into a confusing, expensive web of subscriptions, blackouts and ads
Eli Primm: Jefferson's two-sport phenom delivering on the diamond and gridiron
Situations like being the leadoff hitter in a crucial regional series against a local rival is what Jefferson High School junior Eli Primm lives for.
Sport, Culture and Brand: Juventus Brought Black&White to Chengdu
Following the success of the Youth Carnival event in Shanghai, Juventus returned to China, bringing its colours to Chengdu from 10 to 12 April 2026. The three-day initiative was dedicated to sport, cu...
Attorney says suspect in attack on OpenAI CEO's home was in midst of 'mental health crisis'
The man accused of trying to kill OpenAI CEO Sam Altman by throwing a Molotov cocktail at his San Francisco home was experiencing a mental health crisis and has been overcharged by prosecutors, his public defender said Tuesday.
Scientists just solved a 160-million-year fossil mystery “I’ve never seen anything like it”
A rare fossil discovery is shedding light on the “missing years” of early sponge evolution. Scientists found a 550-million-year-old sponge that likely lacked hard skeletal parts, explaining why earlier fossils are so scarce. This supports the idea that the earliest sponges were soft-bodied and rarely preserved. The finding changes how researchers hunt for the origins of animal life.
Pregnancy is more risky for Black moms. What a doctor says partners can do to help
Locally and nationally, Black women are at a much higher risk than women of other races of dying during pregnancy, or the year after.
New MTG Secret Lair Superdrop Reveals Tournament-Legal My Little Pony Cards
A massive new Secret Lair Superdrop, titled Back to School, just dropped, and it brings My Little Pony to black-bordered MTG!
Virginia Tech lands a commitment from DL Xavier Perkins
Xavier Perkins trusted the feeling — and it led him to Blacksburg. The versatile defensive lineman out of Durham (N.C.) Jordan has committed to Virginia Tech, giving the Hokies a key piece in the trenches after a spring filled with visits and momentum shifts. “It came down to that feeling, and I felt it the […]
Charlotte's Black developers describe challenges
Three prominent Black Charlotte real estate developers spoke at the weekly Sarah Stevenson Tuesday Forum, sharing insights on why they remain outliers in an industry that they said remains dominated by white males.
DA wants Sam Altman arson suspect Daniel Moreno-Gama held without bail
Daniel Moreno-Gama allegedly threw a lit Molotov cocktail at OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's home and threatened to burn down OpenAI's headquarters.
Sony’s latest gaming headset offers great open-back audio
Stellar sound performance, if you don’t mind its lack of noise cancellation.
BlackRock sees opportunity for growth in private credit "shakeout"
There may be some private credit losers in the future, but doesn't plan to be one of them. On their Q1 analyst call, Fink and co explained why they will win.
Lure of the black hole: from science to art
An excerpt from art historian and author Lynn Gamwell’s book Conjuring the Void: the Art of Black Holes
Local business owner to run for Black Mountain Town Council
John Richardson cites longstanding dispute with officials in announcement Fred McCormick The Valley Echo April 14, 2026
Virginia Health Officials Issue Fish Consumption Advisory for Chickahominy River
April 14, 2026 Media Contact: Brookie Crawford, brookie.crawford@vdh.virginia.gov Virginia Health Officials Issue Fish Consumption Advisory for Chickahominy River Contaminants Identified in Black Crappie RICHMOND, Va. – Effective immediately, the Virginia Department of Health (VDH) is issuing a fish consumption advisory for the Chickahominy River due to elevated perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) levels in black crappie. Fish […]
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Rival Launches, Hailed As 'True AAAA Pirate Experience"
Assassin's Creed Black Flag remake fans check out this AAAA pirate experience!
Blackmagic Debuts $29K+ URSA Cine Immersive 100G for Vision Pro
Blackmagic has announced a new version of its URSA Cine Immersive camera, the first commercial camera system designed to capture 3D content for the Vision Pro. The URSA Cine Immersive 100G adds 100G Ethernet to the original camera to deliver the bandwidth needed to output live immersive video for the first time.
Introducing: Two Bracelet Updates For Tudor, Including A Full Ceramic Black Bay Bracelet
The brand's first ever ceramic bracelet, and a dressy addition to a classic GMT.
Scientists Challenge Black Hole Theory, Say Dark Matter Core May Lie At Centre Of Milky Way
Lead author Valentina Crespi explained that this dense dark matter core could bend light so strongly that it creates a dark region in the centre.
How Entertainment Exec Hassan Smith Built an Art Collection Championing Black Artists
Atlanta-based collector Hassan Smith, John Legend’s longtime advisor, approaches collecting art as a way to forge a legacy for his children.
Just kidding about the separation of church and state?
You may recall the old truism the three things you shouldn’t discuss at a cocktail party are religion, politics, and, well, that last one often depends on the situation. But those first two tend to be commonly warned against as topics for conversation in polite society. So, guess what we are going to talk about […]
Blackmagic's DaVinci Resolve 21 takes on Adobe Lightroom with a new Photo page
Many creators are now using DaVinci Resolve instead of Adobe Premiere, and now Blackmagic Design is going after Photoshop.
Zion Williamson Expresses Frustration Over Missing NBA Playoffs Again
Zion Williamson is frustrated about his lack of playoff experience.
Event Friday for Black Maternal Health Week
There is an event Friday for Black Maternal Health Week.
Scientists finally know where the Colorado River’s missing water is going
For years, water managers have been puzzled as the Colorado River kept delivering less water than expected—even when snowpack levels looked promising. New research reveals the missing piece: spring rain, or rather, the lack of it. Warmer, drier springs mean plants are soaking up more snowmelt before it can reach rivers, fueled by sunny skies that boost growth and evaporation. In fact, this shift explains nearly 70% of the shortfall, tying the mystery directly to the long-running Millennium drought.
Support Black Maternal Health Week through donations
Diapers and wipes are being collected until April 17
Retro Rewind re-creates the glorious drudgery of working a '90s video store
What the nostalgic throwback lacks in complexity it makes up for in repetitive charm.
Google shoehorned Rust into Pixel 10 modem to make legacy code safer
Cellular modems are complex black boxes of legacy code, but Google is making them safer with Rust.
Blackmagic Design announces Blackmagic URSA Cine 12K LF 100G
Blackmagic Design today announced Blackmagic URSA Cine 12K LF 100G, a new model in the URSA Cine family with 100G Ethernet for high-frame-rate SMPTE-2110 live production output up to 440 fps. Building on the digital film features of the URSA Cine 12K LF, including the large format RGBW 36x24mm sensor, the new model adds dramatically faster … Continued
Three Exit Black River Entertainment
SVP Promotion Bill Macky, Midwest regional Joe Carroll and West Coast rep Jim Malito have [...]
The gut health benefits of everyday herbs
Discover how everyday herbs support gut health, digestion, and overall wellness while adding flavor to simple, everyday meals.
Whoopi Goldberg launches WhoopInk, a Blackstone Publishing imprint
Whoopi Goldberg has launched a publishing imprint called WhoopInk | WBEN
Whoopi Goldberg launches WhoopInk, a Blackstone Publishing imprint
Whoopi Goldberg has launched a publishing imprint called WhoopInk | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM
Open house in Chicago will focus on improving Black maternal health
Northwestern Medicine provides guidance for improving Black maternal health
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says more than 80% of deaths related to pregnancy are preventable, and Black women are three times more likely to die from pregnancy-related causes than white women.
Hubble Spies an Active Spiral
Hubble captures a luminous swirl set against the deep black of space, the barred spiral galaxy IC 486 glows with a soft, ethereal light.
The hidden health inequality facing even the wealthiest Black mothers
Khiara Bridges took on Josh Hawley. Now she’s taking on the maternal healthcare system.
Conservation groups call for 'science-based' approach to Alberta grizzly bear hunt proposal
Conservation groups say recent calls for the provincial government to legalize the hunting of threatened grizzly bears in Alberta aren't justified by science due to a lack of up-to-date population studies.
Entertainment Is Now the Engine of Brand Growth, Small World Reports
Little Black Book, Produced with Tracksuit, the 'Entertain or Die 3.0' report reveals that entertainment-first brands are driving stronger revenue growth and consumer preference in 2025
Sabres seeking two more wins, starting with Blackhawks Monday
With two games remaining in the regular season, the playoff-bound Buffalo Sabres can finish anywhere from first to third in a stacked Atlantic Division.
Black hole wakes after 100 million years and erupts like a cosmic volcano
A colossal “cosmic volcano” has erupted in deep space, as a supermassive black hole in galaxy J1007+3540 roars back to life after nearly 100 million years of silence. Astronomers captured stunning radio images showing fresh jets blasting outward while crashing into the intense pressure of a surrounding galaxy cluster, creating a chaotic, distorted structure stretching nearly a million light-years.
The Movement Turns Ten. Black Mothers Are Still Fighting. Blood Donors Can Help.
Black Maternal Health Week turns 10. Dr. Monique Rainford on the maternal mortality crisis and how blood donors can help. #BMHW26 #NationalMinorityHealthMonth
Black Maternal Health Week: The impact of racism and how patients can advocate for themselves
It’s Black Maternal Health Week. Storm Team4’s Jessica Faith spoke with Dr. Tamika Auguste about the impact of implicit bias and structural racism on outcomes for Black mothers and how patients can advocate for themselves.
'Missing' black holes are real - and scientists may know why
Astronomers believe they have found the mysterious forbidden void between black holes that has puzzled scientists for years.
EL PAÍS: US aid cuts collapse Malawi’s LGBTQ+ health services as volunteers scramble to fill the void
The lack of funding has left some 15,000 users of NGO programs scrambling for care in a public system that many fear to enter.
Educate, empower, and advocate: Mercy Medical Center midwife discusses Black Maternal Health Week
Mercy Medical Center midwife Kia Hollis joins Jenyne Donaldson to discuss Black Maternal Health Week.
Black Maternal Health Week highlights disparities, solutions at Hampton Roads conference
Held as part of the national awareness week from April 11 to 17, the conference brought together doctors, nurses, social workers and midwife advocates to address inequities in maternal health care and outcomes.
New report claims Microsoft is considering changing Day One access to Call of Duty on Game Pass
Microsoft is reportedly considering dropping Call of Duty from its Game Pass Day One offering.
Trey McKenney discusses game-sealing shot in National Championship
At the national championship celebration, Michigan Basketball G Trey McKenney discussed his game-sealing shot vs UConn and how he “blacked out” in the process:
Sutton's predictions: Sunderland v Tottenham
What's Roberto de Zerbi going to do with Tottenham and how will he set them up? The whole situation is just odd, with De Zerbi securing a five-year contract despite only hanging around for more than two years at one of his previous eight clubs. Sunderland's form at the Stadium of Light has dipped a bit since they lost their unbeaten home record against Liverpool in February, but the Black Cats will be buoyant after beating Newcastle last time out.
Michigan group spotlights Black Maternal Health Week and the risks Black women face giving birth
Black women are 3 to 4 times more likely than their white counterparts to die of childbirth-related complications. The disparity is unchanged even when factoring in education and income.
What Now? Vance Leaves Iran Talks Without a Deal.
The lack of a breakthrough after 21 hours of negotiations leaves the Trump administration facing several unpalatable options.
Black doulas work to bridge health disparities for Black mothers
Saturday marked Global Black Doula Day and the start of Black Maternal Health Week. Pregnant and postpartum parents gathered on the West Side for a community baby shower.
Columbus organization hosts free Black maternal health expo
The Columbus, Georgia Chapter of Jack & Jill of America held its first-ever Black Maternal Health Expo this morning at Comer Gym.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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