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Honeywell Said Close to Selling Unit to Brady for $1.4 Billion
Honeywell International Inc. is nearing a deal to divest its productivity solutions and services business to industrial manufacturer Brady Corp., according to people familiar with the matter.
India and South Korea agree to nearly double trade to $50B by 2030
South Korea and India have agreed to nearly double bilateral trade to $50 billion by 2030, up from about $27 billion.
Trump Administration to Begin Refunding $166 Billion in Tariffs
The government will debut a system to repay importers two months after the Supreme Court struck down tariffs at the heart of the president’s trade policy.
Kalshi’s fight over sports betting is hurtling towards the Supreme Court—and the future of gambling is at stake
Kalshi is in a make-or-break fight to preserve a lucrative new prediction-markets industry expected to grow to over $200 billion this year.
Google Starts Scanning All Your Photos As New Update Goes Live
Google wants its AI to see all the photos of "you and your loved ones." Billions of users must now decide.
What to know about tariff refund site that's set to go live Monday
This is the 1st phase in the administration complying with court orders that could see billions of dollars in paid tariffs refunded.
Scientists stunned as bacteria rewire DNA machinery to shape cells
Cyanobacteria—ancient microbes that oxygenated Earth and made complex life possible—are still revealing surprises billions of years later. Scientists have now discovered that a molecular system once used to separate DNA has been repurposed into something entirely different: a structure that shapes the cell itself.
The Hard Truths Behavioral Science Must Face in Conflict Settings - by Britt Titus
Approximately 2 billion people live in conflict-affected areas. Yet most of the theories, experiments, and interventions developed in behavioral science are based on stable contexts.
Tribes warn CFTC move on sports prediction markets would undermine gaming compacts
Tribal leaders warn a potential CFTC move to allow sports prediction markets could bypass gaming laws, threaten compacts and shift billions in revenue.
After Long Avoiding Politics, Commodity Traders Cozy Up to Trump
(Bloomberg) -- For decades, the world’s biggest commodity traders have sought to remain outside of politics, doing deals with anyone who has natural resources to buy or sell. Now, Donald Trump is changing the rules of the game. Most Read from BloombergHormuz Chaos, Lebanon Clashes Dent Trump Peace Deal HopesNvidia Makes Quantum Computing CEO a Billionaire in DaysTrump Says Iran Will Suspend Nuclear Program as Hormuz OpensThe Jet-Fuel Surge Is Making Global Flight Connections DisappearCongo to To
This behind-the-scenes New Orleans tech company quietly powers $12 billion in transactions
"There are great business leaders in the city, but there's this parochial colonialism that's stifling to progress," its founder says.
How a little-known founder is trying to change Calif. politics — to the tune of $1 billion
You may not have heard of Maria Davidson, but tech investors like Joe Lonsdale and Garry Tan trust her with their political ambitions.
Pa. receives $193 million from Rural Health Transformation Program, but rural health leaders remain wary of shortfalls
Pennsylvania received $193 million this year from the Rural Health Transformation Program, which will inject $50 billion over five years to the states. But the state’s rural health leaders worry that the money won’t be enough to fill the financial gaps rural health systems already face and the ones to come with Medicaid changes slated to start in 2027.
Billionaire Steyer's spending binge dwarfs rival campaigns in California governor's race
LOS ANGELES (AP) — In the wide-open race for California governor, billionaire Tom Steyer is on a spending binge.
Scientists Prove There Are Just Six Degrees of Separation in a Social Network
A simple pattern links billions of people: just a few connections apart. New research suggests this may be an unavoidable feature of human networks.
Apple's upcoming AirPods Pro 3 variant could debut a groundbreaking new feature
Earlier this year, Apple acquired a secretive startup: Q.ai, for over 2 billion dollars. It’s the companies second largest acquisition...
'It's just scale': Local mom-and-pop car dealerships are growing or dying amid industry consolidation, rise of mega-retailers
Multibillion-dollar dealerships have been on the rise amid a decadeslong consolidation that has led to a grow-or-die mentality for many U.S. auto retailers.
Mamdani's pied-à-terre tax would hit billionaires: Trump, Bezos, Griffin
New York City's proposed pied-à-terre tax targets billionaires like Jeff Bezos and Ken Griffin with luxury second homes.
Google Starts Scanning All Your Photos As New Update Goes Live
Google wants its AI to see all your photos of "you and your loved ones." Billions of users mush now decide.
‘Starting In April’—Microsoft Changes Windows Update After 15 Years
Security certificates on more than a billion Windows PCs expire in 8 weeks — check yours now.
A look at 'super agers' and the science behind longer, sharper lives
For thousands of years, humans have tried to avoid growing old. Billions are spent every year on potions and procedures to make us look younger, feel younger and think younger. It’s a hugely profitable, but ultimately fruitless hunt. But science has started to zero in on some proven techniques. Horizons moderator William Brangham explores that with Dr. Eric Topol and Dr. Sandra Weintraub.
Report: Colorado incentives drive 143 business expansions and 42,000 jobs
Colorado's incentive programs helped attract 143 companies, creating over 42,000 jobs and $4.8 billion in wages, boosting the state's economy.
Shopping TV empire behind QVC, HSN files for bankruptcy amid mounting losses
The parent company of QVC and HSN has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy as part of a major restructuring plan to slash billions in debt. The company says it will continue normal operations with no planned layoffs.
Trump ‘in discussions’ with IRS to cut deal in tax record lawsuit
President Donald Trump is in talks with the Internal Revenue Service to strike a deal over the release of his tax records. The news was revealed in a legal filing, where his legal team said they were in “discussions” with the IRS to “avoid protracted litigation.” Trump is seeking $10 billion in damages, which would […]
Berkshire Hathaway’s Big Utility Business Could Be Worth Close to $100 Billion
It would probably be a top five utility in the country by market value if it were publicly traded.
Why OnlyFans is only worth $3 billion
There's a lot of profit in porn — and a lot of people who are worried about owning a porn business.
How today’s AI trainers could be tomorrow’s displaced workers
A fast-growing AI startup is betting it can transform—and potentially replace—large swaths of white-collar work by turning professionals into trainers for the very systems that could one day displace them, Bloomberg writes. Mercor, now valued at $10 billion, recruits doctors, lawyers, consultants and other experts to break down their jobs into step-by-step tasks, feeding that […]
Trump administration considers unfreezing $20 billion in Iranian assets as peace talks hit home stretch
The Trump administration is considering unfreezing $20 billion in Iranian assets as part of ongoing negotiations with Tehran, according to a source familiar with the discussions.
Colorado’s $46.8 billion budget nears finish line
The Colorado Senate on Thursday voted largely along party lines to approve $46.8 billion in spending for the next state budget. The spending plan is bigger than what legislators originally approved for the current fiscal year’s budget, driven by increases in Medicaid costs. The proposal saw changes from a dozen amendments during debate Wednesday, but […]
‘Starting In April’—Microsoft Changes Windows Update After 15 Years
Security certificates on more than a billion Windows PCs expire in 8 weeks — check yours now.
Box office powerhouse Disney to show theater owners what’s next
The Walt Disney Co. is closing out CinemaCon on Thursday in Las Vegas. The company dominated the box office in 2025 with nearly $2.5 billion in domestic ticket sales. Hits like “Lilo & Stitch,”...
Travelers posts sharp earnings rebound as catastrophe losses normalize
Insurer reports $1.7 billion in quarterly profit, boosts dividend after strong underwriting and investment performance
GE Appliances invests $28M in Decatur plant, health clinic
GE Appliances has announced a $28 million investment in new manufacturing technology and a primary care clinic designed to serve employees and their families at its Decatur refrigeration plant. The company says the investment strengthens its Alabama workforce, deepens community ties and supports its broader $3 billion plan to expand U.S. manufacturing over the next five years. GE Appliances has operated in Decatur since 1977, and the company says the site remains its highest-volume refrigeration plant in the country.
Thousands suffer nausea, delirium and other health issues from toxins in the Tijuana River
For decades, billions of gallons of sewage and industrial waste have been dumped into the Tijuana River.
Tijuana River sewage is making the air toxic, scientists say
For decades, billions of gallons of sewage and industrial waste have been dumped into the Tijuana River.
Chargé Arnold Speech - Implementation Plan of Five-Year Health MOU - U.S. Embassy in Madagascar
Chargée d’Affaires Stephanie Arnold's Speech Discussion on the implementation plan for the five-year health Memorandum of Understanding (…) Colleagues, and honored guests, Good morning, and welcome to the United States Embassy. It is a pleasure to host you today for the second day of this important workshop to discuss the implementation of our bilateral health Memorandum of Understanding on U.S. Government health activities in Madagascar, made possible through the Trump Administration’s America First Global Health Strategy. Today’s focus— discussing a shared vision and developing a preliminary draft for the health MOU Implementation Plan and the terms of reference for the two committees that will steer its implementation—is a decisive step in moving from commitments on paper to concrete action over the next five years. On December 22, 2025, the Governments of Madagascar and the United States signed a five-year bilateral health MOU, with a financial intention of approximately 554 billion Ariary from the United States and This jointly decided MOU intends to strengthen Madagascar’s health system, support lifesaving services, and improve disease prevention and response that matter to both our countries’ health security. For the United States, this means detecting and containing infectious disease outbreaks including malaria, polio, and emerging health threats before they can reach American shores through international travel and trade, protecting American families while reducing the need for costly domestic emergency responses Yesterday, technical experts from the Ministry of Public Health and the U.S. Government worked in thematic groups to draft a preliminary Implementation Plan. Today, your task is to review the shared vision and preliminary draft MOU implementation plan, and the proposed terms of reference for the Joint Steering Committee and the Operational Committee that will guide its implementation. These committees are not just administrative structures. They are the mechanisms that will ensure clear roles and responsibilities, regular dialogue between our two governments, consistent monitoring of progress, and real accountability for the results that will directly benefit the lives of Malagasy citizens. They will also track performance against the benchmarks we have jointly established, which will guide the continuation of U.S. support over the five-year period . Continued U.S. support will be contingent on meeting these performance benchmarks. This ensures accountability to both American and Malagasy taxpayers and guarantees that our partnership delivers measurable results. America First Foreign Assistance means that U.S. support must be strategic, results-driven, and accountable to our taxpayers. It also means we aim to support greater self-reliance and reduced long-term dependence on foreign assistance, with systems that are increasingly financed and led by Madagascar itself. This approach benefits both our nations: Madagascar gains sustainable health capacity, while the United States advances our health security interests and creates opportunities for American health innovations and companies to support Madagascar’s development. In that spirit, I want to recognize the presence of the Ministry’s leadership and the technical directors and program heads responsible for surveillance, basic health services, family health, immunization, countering malaria, laboratories, medicines, and health information systems. Your leadership and technical expertise are essential if this bilateral health MOU is to translate into real and lasting improvements for people in need across the country. Let me emphasize how important collaboration is to the United States in this effort. We can bring American resources, technical expertise, and tools. But this bilateral health MOU can only succeed if it reflects Madagascar’s priorities and if Malagasy institutions lead and maintain its implementation. We see this not as a U.S. project, but as a joint framework under Malagasy leadership, with U.S. support. That is why we are genuinely pleased to host this event here at the Embassy. Opening our doors to you today symbolizes our commitment to work side by side and to remain transparent about how we use U.S. resources in support of Madagascar’s health system. In closing, thank you for your time and your partnership. We are very happy to welcome you here and proud to accompany Madagascar in this next step of implementation planning for our bilateral health MOU. I wish you a productive and focused session. The work you do today will shape how our two governments cooperate on health in the years ahead; it will influence the quality and reliability of health services that Malagasy communities receive; and, most importantly, it will help protect both our nations from infectious disease threats while building Madagascar’s capacity for long-term health system sustainability. Thank you.
The Case for Pull Funding at the National Institutes of Health
The White House’s fiscal year 2027 budget proposal, released earlier this month, would cut the National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding by ~$5 billion. This is a meaningful cut, though far smaller than the roughly $18 billion reduction proposed for 2026, which Congress ultimately rejected in favor of a modest increase. Whether Congress holds the line again remains uncertain.
As a small business owner, I never expected to pay $100,000 protecting my business from ransomware
This is a $131 billion tax on the American economy, spread across small business owners like myself.
United States and Madagascar Discuss Five-Year Health MOU Implementation Plan - U.S. Embassy in Madagascar
United States and Madagascar Discuss Five-Year Health MOU Implementation Plan The United States and Madagascar’s Ministry of Public Health are in the process of developing a plan for implementing the U.S.-Madagascar five-year Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on health cooperation, signed under the Trump Administration’s America First Global Health Strategy. The two-day workshop, at the U.S. Embassy in Antananarivo, brought together technical experts and senior leadership from the Malagasy and U.S. governments to discuss a shared vision through a preliminary draft MOU Implementation Plan and to establish the joint governance structures that will guide U.S. foreign assistance in health over the next five years. The jointly decided bilateral health MOU, signed on December 22, 2025, builds on decades of U.S. global health assistance to Madagascar. The health MOU involves the U.S.’s plans, working with Congress, to provide approximately $134 million (over 554 billion Ariary) and a Malagasy commitment of $41 million (over 169 billion Ariary). It aims to strengthen Madagascar’s health system, improve disease prevention and response, and support services that address health security concerns for both countries, including malaria, maternal and child health, polio, and global health security issues that could reach U.S. shores if not contained at their source. During the recent workshop, technical staff from the Ministry of Public Health and the U.S. Government health team worked in thematic groups to draft detailed implementation plans for the five-year MOU period. On the second day, U.S. Chargé d’Affaires Stephanie Arnold and Ministry of Public Health and Economic and Finance Ministry leadership joined the technical teams to discuss plans and proposed terms of reference for two committees: a Joint Steering Committee and an Operational Committee. These structures will ensure clear roles and responsibilities, regular dialogue between the two governments, consistent monitoring of progress, and accountability for results. The framework includes performance benchmarks that will guide continued U.S. support and track Madagascar’s progress toward self-reliance. “We see this not as a U.S. project, but as a joint framework under Malagasy leadership, with U.S. support,” said U.S. Chargé d’Affaires Stephanie Arnold during the workshop’s opening session. The approach reflects U.S. foreign assistance principles that emphasize strategic, results-driven support that advances American interests while helping recipient countries build sustainable health systems. The framework is designed to build systems that Madagascar will increasingly finance and lead itself, reducing long-term dependence on foreign assistance.
Dining, lodging businesses struggle as middle-class Minnesotans cut back
Decline in leisure spending signals strain for the state’s nearly $9 billion hospitality industry.
Entertainment AR and VR System on a Chip (SoC) Market Outlook, 2026-2030 & 2035 - Apple, Samsung Electronics, and Meta Platforms Lead the $3.8 Billion Industry
The market is poised for growth driven by immersive gaming demand, expanding mixed reality applications, and AR adoption Entertainment Augmented Reality (AR) and Virtual Reality (VR) System on a Chip (SoC) Market Entertainment Augmented Reality (AR) and Virtual Reality (VR) System on a Chip (SoC) Market Dublin, April 16, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The "Entertainment Augmented Reality (AR) and Virtual Reality (VR) System on a Chip (SoC) Market Report 2026" has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's
Water on Mars? Scientists discover 'bathtub ring' which may reveal contours of ancient ocean
Like Earth and the solar system's other planets, Mars formed roughly 4. 5 billion years ago.
Water on Mars? Scientists discover 'bathtub ring' which may reveal contours of ancient ocean
Like Earth and the solar system's other planets, Mars formed roughly 4.5 billion years ago. Early in its history, Mars was warmer and wetter than the cold and arid place it is today.
Russia spent extra $130 billion for goods while sanctioned: Latvia
The Latvian analysts said intelligence showed Russia's own forecasts warn it may lose another $136 billion just in trade by 2030 due to the sanctions.
Developers plan construction phasing for Norman's Rock Creek Entertainment District
Rainier Development Company and the University of Oklahoma Foundation formalize construction phasing for Norman's billion-dollar arena district amid legal challenges.
Taxing millionaires and billionaires is a political no brainer for Democrats
The American financial elite have benefited from tax breaks while the rest of the population struggles, leading to a push for tax reform and increased taxation on the wealthy.
PNC Gives Update on Private Business Lender Exposure
That's PNC Financial's exposure to private business lenders, including private-credit funds. The bank said that $7 billion of that figure is in the form of loans to private-credit providers, a focus of jittery investors in recent months. The remainder, $26 billion, is in the form of trade receivabl
Private credit's $20 billion redemption rush in 3 charts
Private credit redemptions reached record levels in the first quarter of this year, and these charts explain how investors asked for about $20 billion back.
German health minister announces billions in cutbacks
The comprehensive reform package aims to plug a multi-billion-euro hole in Germany's expensive healthcare system. The reforms include mandatory second opinions for costly surgeries and no more homeopathy.
Rainier, University of Oklahoma Foundation to Build $1.1B Rock Creek Entertainment District in Norman
NORMAN, OKLA. — Rainier Development Co. has executed a master development agreement with the University of Oklahoma Foundation for the planned Rock Creek Entertainment District, a $1.1 billion project in Norman. Rainier will lead planning, design, coordination and development of the 269-acre district in collaboration with Cleveland County, the City of Norman, the University of Oklahoma, community stakeholders and other development partners. Rock Creek Entertainment District is envisioned as a year-round destination that will include an 8,000-seat performance venue designed to host concerts, conventions and community events, as well as University of Oklahoma men’s and women’s basketball games and women’s gymnastics events. Plans for Phase I of Rock Creek include the performance venue; a central outdoor plaza; approximately 140,000 square feet of retail, dining and entertainment experiences; roughly 250 multifamily units; and a structured parking garage with 1,200 spaces. Phased openings of the venue, restaurants and retail are expected to begin in 2028. Phase II will include approximately 180,000 square feet of office space and a 150-room hotel. Phase III calls for 500 additional multifamily units, as well as townhomes and single-family residences. Future phases are anticipated to include additional expansion, subject to market conditions and planning. The project, located…
Japan Pledges $10 Billion to Help Countries Cope With Oil Prices
With supply chains at risk, the aid to Southeast Asian nations is aimed at securing the availability of oil-based products, including medical equipment.
UK fund major L&G aims to double Asia business, CEO says
Britain's biggest asset manager Legal & General aims to double its assets under management in Asia to around $500 billion amid its push to grow its international business, CEO Antonio Simoes told Reuters on Monday.
How 1 GOP billionaire is upending Georgia politics
Rick Jackson came out of nowhere. All of a sudden, he’s everywhere.
He Has a War Chest and an ‘R’ by His Name. Will Enough Voters Like Him?
Vivek Ramaswamy has all but cleared the field ahead of the May primary for Ohio governor, but whether a finance and pharma billionaire is the man for the moment is another question.
Amazon Just Revealed a Hidden $50 Billion Business -- Is This the Buy Signal Investors Needed?
This Amazon business is "on fire," according to CEO Andy Jassy.
Can Sherrill budget offset Medicaid cuts to keep NJ hospitals open?
New Jersey hospitals and other health care facilities face dire financial circumstances due to an estimated $3.6 billion in annual Medicaid cuts.
Dutch Insurer Aegon Strikes $2.7B Deal to Sell UK Insurance Business to Standard Life
Aegon has agreed to sell its UK insurance business to Standard Life for a total value of 2 billion pounds ($2.7 billion), the Dutch insurer said on
‘Starting In April’—Microsoft Changes Windows Update After 15 Years
Security certificates on more than a billion Windows PCs expire in 8 weeks — check yours now.
Aegon to sell UK business for 2 billion pounds to Standard Life
Aegon said on Tuesday it had reached an agreement with Standard Life to divest its UK business for a total consideration of 2 billion pounds ($2.7 billion).
Anthropic draws offers from VCs to invest at up to $800 billion valuation, Business Insider reports
Anthropic has received multiple offers from venture capital firms valuing the Claude maker at as much as $800 billion in recent weeks, more than double its current valuation, Business Insider reported on Tuesday, citing sources.
Senate Democrats outline amendment strategy as budget debate nears
Members of the Colorado Senate met with their respective caucuses on Tuesday to discuss the state’s proposed $46.8 billion budget for fiscal year 2026-2027, which passed through the House over the weekend following lengthy debate. The full Senate will begin debating the budget on Wednesday. Joint Budget Committee members Sens. Jeff Bridges and Judy Amabile […]
VCs are flooding Anthropic with offers to invest at up to $800 billion
Anthropic has received multiple offers to invest at valuations as high as $800 billion in recent weeks, which would more than double its valuation.
What Swalwell’s exit means for Democrats in California’s governor race
Billionaire Tom Steyer and ex-congresswoman Katie Porter stand to benefit the most in a Democratic field with no clear front-runner, several strategists said.
Advertisers demand billions of dollars from Google in escalating monopoly battle
Alphabet Inc.’s Google is facing billions of dollars in potential damage claims as part of mass arbitration tied to the company’s online search and advertising technology businesses, which courts have ruled were illegal monopolies.
Advancing Mental Health Worldwide: Five Core Elements for Effective Strategies
More than one billion people worldwide live with a mental health condition (MHC). Despite the significant downstream economic, societal, and health challenges a
Amazon to buy Louisiana based satellite firm Globalstar in $11.6 billion deal
The deal for the Louisiana satellite communications company
Millions of Floridians Will Bear the Brunt of Trump’s Health Cuts
(Bloomberg) -- Millions of people in the US are expected to lose their health coverage in coming years because of shrinking funding for federal programs. Few states would suffer a bigger blow than Florida.Enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies expired in December. More than $900 billion in cuts to Medicaid safety-net programs are on the horizon. Across the US, in excess of 14 million people are expected to lose health insurance through 2034, according to health-policy research nonprofit KFF.Flor
Tap THC beverage tax to address budget gap
By Christine Lafferty Colorado is faced with the largest budget deficit in recent memory — calculated to be a $1.5 billion hole according to the state’s Joint Budget Committee. Legislators have been scrambling to address this gap, which signals massive cuts to important state services such as education, climate management, and health care. It’s time for […]
TPG Agrees to Buy Learfield in Deal Worth Roughly $2 Billion
Learfield’s majority owners—Charlesbank Capital Partners and funds managed by Fortress Investment Group—hired two banks in the fall to explore a sale.
Exynos 2600 Was Born Out Of Sheer Necessity And Wouldn’t Have Entered Mass Production If Samsung’s Mistakes Not Cost It $3 Billion Last Year
As Samsung races towards self-sufficiency in the chipset race, it only mass produced the Exynos 2600 because it lost $3 billion in 2025
Epic Games Reportedly Developing Extraction Shooter Starring Disney Characters
Bloomberg reports that Epic Games is currently developing a Disney-themed extraction shooter as part of the studios' $1.5 billion partnership.
Dallas ISD voters to decide largest school bond in state history
On May 2nd, voters living in Dallas ISD will decide whether to pay $33 more a year in property taxes to pay for a $6.2 billion bond package. The plan would build 26 new schools and make major upgrades to facilities and technology at every campus. Lone Star Politics speaks with Miguel Solis, former President of DISD Board of Trustees and now the President of the Commit Partnership.
Insurers Stand to Gain Big Business From Data Centers
That's how much S&P Global Ratings estimates data centers could pay in insurance premiums this year. That number compares to $5 billion a year for the entire aviation sector, the ratings firm said in a report Monday. The firm estimates the total insurable amount of data-center assets at $2 trillion
Hollywood heavyweights voice opposition to Paramount-Warner merger in letter
The deal is worth $111 billion
Fifteen bucks a signature: the crisis of money in US politics is growing
The fight over California’s billionaire tax is just the latest symptom of a crisis that has escalated since 2010
Delta has big hopes to build a $5 billion maintenance business
A fast-growing revenue stream to watch at Delta Air Lines doesn’t have to do with Sky Clubs, new routes or more airplane seats. It has to do with maintenance.
Lauder gift of $10M to aid science center's expansion in W. Palm Beach
A $10 million gift in the name of the late cosmetics billionaire Leonard Lauder and his widow, Judy, will help expand a West Palm Beach science center.
Business Travel Market Expected to Reach USD 2,095.4 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 9.5%: Allied Market Research
Allied Market Research published a report, titled, "business travel Market by INDUSTRY (Government, Corporate), by SERVICE (Transportation, Food and Lodging, Recreation), by TRAVELER (Group, Solo): Global Opportunity Analysis and Industry Forecast, 2021-2031". According to the report the global business travel market, valued at USD 689.7 billion in 2021, is projected to reach USD 2,095.4 billion by 2031, expanding at a CAGR of 9.5% over the forecast period — more than tripling in size within a d
Baker Hughes sells Waygate unit to Hexagon for about $1.45 billion
Oilfield services provider Baker Hughes sold its Waygate Technologies unit to Swedish industrial technology group Hexagon for about $1.45 billion in cash, the two companies said on Monday.
Trump Attacks Pope Leo as Too Liberal and ‘Weak on Crime’
President Trump’s lengthy post on social media showed there were really no boundaries when it comes to people he might target, including the leader of the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics.
‘Chilling effect’ of Trump science cuts – even if reversed again
Congress likely to once more block plans to cut billions from agency budgets, but experts fear they will have long-term impact anyway
Astronomers detect mega-laser beam signal from 8 billion light-years away
Science News: One of the most remarkable discoveries made by astronomers in recent years is the identification of an extremely strong \"mega-laser\" signal that has t.
What Flutter Entertainment (FLUT)'s Board Shuffle, Buybacks and Quiet Dart Stake Mean For Shareholders
In recent days, Flutter Entertainment plc reported that long-serving independent director Alfred F. Hurley, Jr. will retire at the 2026 AGM, with Nancy Dubuc set to assume the role of Chair of the Compensation and Human Resources Committee, while the company continues executing a multi-billion-dollar share repurchase program. At the same time, billionaire investor Kenneth Dart has quietly built substantial economic exposure to Flutter through total return swaps, even as analysts question...
'Steve Witkoff, Trump's favorite negotiator, boosts his business more than peace'
COLUMN. The billionaire's fortune has risen by 15% since Donald Trump appointed him special envoy for peace, historian Jean-Pierre Filiu observes in his column.
I grew up in a family of entrepreneurs. Here’s what I had to unlearn to build a $1 billion business
I grew up in Switzerland surrounded by entrepreneurs: my grandfather in construction, my father in surveying, my uncles in packaging and construction.
The ‘Annoyance Economy’ Is More Than Just Annoying
A new estimate puts the cost of dealing with robocalls, hidden fees and customer service chatbots that can’t solve most problems at $165 billion.
Nintendo's Animated Films Challenge Disney's Box Office Dominance
Nintendo's expansion into theatrical animation, with billion-dollar films and an annual release slate, is challenging Disney's dominance while strategically promoting its gaming hardware and franchises like the successful Switch 2.
Colorado House finishes work on 2026-27 state budget, finally
The House on Saturday, after four days of work – it usually takes two – finished up their work and voted on the $46.8 billion 2026-27 state budget, as contained in House Bill 1410 and 64 accompanying measures designed to help balance the budget. The delay in getting to the finish line was caused by […]
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
In praise of popular science
As a kid, I was enthusiastically and unreservedly in favor of a manned space program. Our destiny lay in the stars, I figured. Get people out there. We need Star Trek here and now. As I got older, I became rather disenchanted with the idea. Humans are expensive, fragile, and inefficient as space cargo. We could flood the solar system with 100 robotic probes for the price of any single manned mission and get back just as useful data. Besides, it turns out space travel is dangerous. Tusk is a reader-supported publication. To support this work, please become a paid subscriber. Subscribe When it came to the recent Artemis II mission, my cynical side didn’t really see the point. Flying around the Moon and back is literally something we did before I was born, and I once owned a Members Only jacket. Apollo 8 circled the Moon ten times and returned to Earth safely the same month that “Chitty Chitty Bang Bang” was released. What was the point of repeating a feat that far braver people once did with tin foil and slide rules? Yet I’ve surprised myself with how moving I’ve found the Artemis II mission to be. The photos have been stunning. The crew has been professional and engaging. There have been modest but important milestones — the farthest humans have travelled from Earth; the first woman, person of color, and non-American to leave low-Earth orbit; innovations in communication, and more. One thing that really stood out is that this is really NASA at its finest. Not that this is the most important mission they ever pulled off, but they did this in a competent way that celebrated the achievements and kept the crew and the science at the forefront of the project. This wasn’t some billionaire throwing celebrities or cars into orbit as a vanity project — this was a collective effort to send experts in to do a job and come home safely. We don’t see that sort of thing much these days. I’m guessing few people would describe many government agencies as inspiring, but this one counts for me. We’re living through a profoundly anti-science era, in which pathbreaking, lifesaving discoveries like mRNA vaccines are routinely downplayed or even vilified. As I’ve noted previously, this era is something like that of the Red Scare in the 1940s and 50s, in which “egghead” professors were portrayed as out of touch or even hostile to regular Americans. One of the things that helped break that spell was Sputnik — the Soviet communications satellite that demonstrated that the United States was falling behind in crucial scientific research and applications. Its launch triggered a new appreciation for American science and goaded the federal government into supporting research universities and labs. I’m not saying that Artemis is the equivalent of Sputnik, but it potentially reminds people that there’s some value to scientific endeavors and the human faces attached to them. Despite my love for the show “For All Mankind,” I’m far from convinced that there’s any real value to putting colonies on the Moon or Mars that would justify the capital investment and the massive health risks to the astronauts. But sending scientific good will ambassadors on a trip into space once in a while? Bring it. Share
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