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Does Trump even have a political strategy?
Winning in politics means delivering on popular issues, and that is difficult for any president. Without a solid political strategy and discipline is nigh impossible.
Listen: With Little Federal Regulation, States Are Left To Shape the Rules on AI in Health Care
As artificial intelligence embeds itself into health care, some physicians and patient advocates worry it could be used by insurance companies to refuse payment for care. Maryland passed one law banning AI from acting alone on a denial. Meanwhile, Virginia’s then-governor vetoed that state’s attempt at regulating AI in health insurance.
Sunday Politics: New studio means more choice for audience
The programme will be broadcast live on BBC One NI and for the first time on Radio Ulster and Foyle.
Apple's $599 MacBook Neo Sold Out Through April Amid Surging Demand
Apple's MacBook Neo has been a huge hit, and it's still in high demand over a month after it launched. The MacBook Neo is just $599, and with PC makers raising prices because of global RAM shortages, the Neo's low price tag and Apple allure are even more appealing. MacBook Neo orders placed today on the online Apple Store won't reach customers until May, which means that it's sold out for the month of April, as 9to5Mac points out.
Android 17 Beta 4 finally reveals Google's new Easter egg
Every Android release means we get to try out a new, hidden Easter egg, and the latest just landed with Android 17 Beta 4.
Restaurant Roundup: Local pub unaware of health inspection failure, ice cream empire dominates high score list
EL PASO COUNTY, Colo. (KRDO) - A local pub manager wasn’t aware they failed their recent routine health inspection until we showed up. Meanwhile, a
RFK Jr. will remake panel that determines which preventative services insurers must cover - Live Updates
The health secretary told the Ways and Means Committee he’s bringing on new members of the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force.
Chargé Arnold Speech - Implementation Plan of Five-Year Health MOU - U.S. Embassy in Madagascar
Chargée d’Affaires Stephanie Arnold's Speech Discussion on the implementation plan for the five-year health Memorandum of Understanding (…) Colleagues, and honored guests, Good morning, and welcome to the United States Embassy. It is a pleasure to host you today for the second day of this important workshop to discuss the implementation of our bilateral health Memorandum of Understanding on U.S. Government health activities in Madagascar, made possible through the Trump Administration’s America First Global Health Strategy. Today’s focus— discussing a shared vision and developing a preliminary draft for the health MOU Implementation Plan and the terms of reference for the two committees that will steer its implementation—is a decisive step in moving from commitments on paper to concrete action over the next five years. On December 22, 2025, the Governments of Madagascar and the United States signed a five-year bilateral health MOU, with a financial intention of approximately 554 billion Ariary from the United States and This jointly decided MOU intends to strengthen Madagascar’s health system, support lifesaving services, and improve disease prevention and response that matter to both our countries’ health security. For the United States, this means detecting and containing infectious disease outbreaks including malaria, polio, and emerging health threats before they can reach American shores through international travel and trade, protecting American families while reducing the need for costly domestic emergency responses Yesterday, technical experts from the Ministry of Public Health and the U.S. Government worked in thematic groups to draft a preliminary Implementation Plan. Today, your task is to review the shared vision and preliminary draft MOU implementation plan, and the proposed terms of reference for the Joint Steering Committee and the Operational Committee that will guide its implementation. These committees are not just administrative structures. They are the mechanisms that will ensure clear roles and responsibilities, regular dialogue between our two governments, consistent monitoring of progress, and real accountability for the results that will directly benefit the lives of Malagasy citizens. They will also track performance against the benchmarks we have jointly established, which will guide the continuation of U.S. support over the five-year period . Continued U.S. support will be contingent on meeting these performance benchmarks. This ensures accountability to both American and Malagasy taxpayers and guarantees that our partnership delivers measurable results. America First Foreign Assistance means that U.S. support must be strategic, results-driven, and accountable to our taxpayers. It also means we aim to support greater self-reliance and reduced long-term dependence on foreign assistance, with systems that are increasingly financed and led by Madagascar itself. This approach benefits both our nations: Madagascar gains sustainable health capacity, while the United States advances our health security interests and creates opportunities for American health innovations and companies to support Madagascar’s development. In that spirit, I want to recognize the presence of the Ministry’s leadership and the technical directors and program heads responsible for surveillance, basic health services, family health, immunization, countering malaria, laboratories, medicines, and health information systems. Your leadership and technical expertise are essential if this bilateral health MOU is to translate into real and lasting improvements for people in need across the country. Let me emphasize how important collaboration is to the United States in this effort. We can bring American resources, technical expertise, and tools. But this bilateral health MOU can only succeed if it reflects Madagascar’s priorities and if Malagasy institutions lead and maintain its implementation. We see this not as a U.S. project, but as a joint framework under Malagasy leadership, with U.S. support. That is why we are genuinely pleased to host this event here at the Embassy. Opening our doors to you today symbolizes our commitment to work side by side and to remain transparent about how we use U.S. resources in support of Madagascar’s health system. In closing, thank you for your time and your partnership. We are very happy to welcome you here and proud to accompany Madagascar in this next step of implementation planning for our bilateral health MOU. I wish you a productive and focused session. The work you do today will shape how our two governments cooperate on health in the years ahead; it will influence the quality and reliability of health services that Malagasy communities receive; and, most importantly, it will help protect both our nations from infectious disease threats while building Madagascar’s capacity for long-term health system sustainability. Thank you.
Intel launches Wildcat Lake: Core 7 360 gets 6 CPU cores and 2 Xe3 GPU cores
Intel launches Core non-Ultra Series 3 with Wildcat Lake die The competitor to Apple's MacBook Neo systems has arrived, I mean, that should be the
The Case for Pull Funding at the National Institutes of Health
The White House’s fiscal year 2027 budget proposal, released earlier this month, would cut the National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding by ~$5 billion. This is a meaningful cut, though far smaller than the roughly $18 billion reduction proposed for 2026, which Congress ultimately rejected in favor of a modest increase. Whether Congress holds the line again remains uncertain.
Drugmakers raised prices on hundreds of drugs despite Trump deals, Senate Democrats report finds
The findings raise questions about whether the administration’s “most favored nation” deals are having a meaningful impact on patients.
Iran war has some Republicans worried their chances of keeping the House are slipping away
The White House had long circled Tax Day as the unofficial start to a critical midterm campaign meant to highlight how much money the administration was putting back in voters’ pockets.
What the Iran War Means for the “Axis of Resistance”
The Iran war is a crucible for Shiite identity and politics.
Lena Dunham on New Memoir, Jack Antonoff, Health Issues, More
Writer, director, and actor Lena Dunham joins TODAY’s Jenna Bush Hager and Sheinelle Jones to talk about her new memoir, “Famesick: A Memoir,” where she opens up about her health, experience with fame, and what it means to come of age under the intense scrutiny of Hollywood. Dunham talks about the negative attention she got while starring in “Girls” and how it exacerbated her health issues, reflects on her breakup with Jack Antonoff, and opens up about her battle with pharmaceutical dependency. Dunham also shares the story of how she came to the decision to get a hysterectomy when her endometriosis became unbearable, despite her dreams of being a mother.
Why I’m embracing the latest uncool thing in gaming
‘Unc’ is meant to disparage older players who favour slow-paced shooters and epic narrative games, but the industry should make games for all generations
PSA president and CEO Dion Flannery named a Charlotte Business Journal Most Admired CEO
Charlotte, N.C. — PSA Airlines President and Chief Executive Officer Dion Flannery has been named a recipient of the Charlotte Business Journal’s annual Most Admired CEO award, recognizing outstanding leadership, strategic vision, and positive impact on the regional business community. The award honors executives who demonstrate exemplary leadership, inspire their teams, and contribute meaningfully to their organizations and the Charlotte region. Flannery was recognized for guiding PSA Airlines through continued growth while maintaining a focus on safety, operational excellence, and a people-first culture. “We’re honored that Dion has been recognized by the Charlotte Business Journal for his leadership and contributions that benefit PSA, the American Airlines Group, and the community in our new home in Charlotte....
A PvP Guide to Sustainability Week 2026
New event means new grinding opportunities for PvP! We got an all-new Pokemon to hunt down and a couple oldies-but-goodies to grind for as well. How do they look? Let’s see! A GOOD CURSE? ☠️ It doesn’t feel that long ago, but it’s been a year and half since GALARIAN CORSOLA arrived in Pokémon GO, and while the meta has changed […]
Osara Health Publishes New Peer-Reviewed Study Demonstrating Clinically Meaningful Improvements in Physical and Mental Health for People With Cancer
/PRNewswire/ -- Osara Health, a global digital health company focused on the human experience of cancer care, today announced a new peer-reviewed study showing...
Matt Crocker’s abrupt U.S. Soccer departure brings many questions. Here are the answers.
U.S. Soccer's sporting director is headed for Saudi Arabia. This is what it means for the federation – and what comes next at a pivotal time
See how LSU’s coastal environmental science major produces successful graduates
The LSU Olinde Career Center’s outcomes data for last year’s undergraduate class revealed high starting salaries and an increased positive outcome rate for coastal environmental sciences. A positive outcome means a graduate has secured an opportunity such as employment or admission to graduate school within six months of graduating. CES graduates had a positive outcome...
Cannabis stores on State Street face a hazy future
Stores selling hemp-derived THC products have proliferated, especially on State Street. A change in federal legislation means their future is uncertain.
What Eric Swalwell, Tony Gonzales resignations mean for Mike Johnson’s agenda in Congress
The House faces a series of “must-pass” bills on everything from surveillance to the Iran war to the Department of Homeland Security.
The political power of Latin America's first ladies
First ladies in Latin America are more than ceremonial figures. They influence public policy, advance political careers, and build power within the core of the executive branch – without a formal mandate, or accountability. Carolina Guerrero Valencia shows why ignoring them means misreading presidential power itself
How Ardent Health (ARDT) Narrative Is Shifting As Valuation Resets And Operations Steady
Ardent Health is back in focus after analysts trimmed their fair value estimate from $12.73 to $12.44, a small reset that still reflects largely unchanged assumptions on the core business. The shift comes alongside Street commentary that balances slightly lower targets with improving Q4 execution, steadier payer denials, solid patient volumes, and views that the current share price may look undemanding to some. Read on to see how to track these evolving signals and what they could mean for...
This simple change stops robot swarms from getting stuck
In crowded environments, more robots don’t always mean faster results—in fact, too many can bring everything to a standstill. Harvard researchers discovered a surprising fix: adding a bit of randomness to how robots move can actually prevent gridlock and boost efficiency. By allowing robots to “wiggle” slightly instead of marching in straight lines, they can slip past each other and keep tasks flowing smoothly.
Bradenton health care summit: Officials warn millions face barriers to medical care due to high, rising costs
The House Ways and Means Health Care Subcommittee Chair Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Bradenton) convened a health care summit at the Lake Erie College of Medicine in Bradenton on Tuesday.
Opinion: Utah’s volatile inner-party politics
Turmoil in the Mideast and the nation’s economy are intensifying fissures between parties and within them. What does this mean for Utah politics?
What Swalwell’s exit means for Democrats in California’s governor race
Billionaire Tom Steyer and ex-congresswoman Katie Porter stand to benefit the most in a Democratic field with no clear front-runner, several strategists said.
The Business of Resilience
Discover how resilience means building forward, not bouncing back. Explore JEFRË's monumental art and why celebrating living artists matters.
Despite Israeli firepower, Netanyahu struggles for political gains in Iran war
The Iran war was meant to deliver a defining victory over Tehran that would secure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's place in history. More than six weeks into the conflict, he has been unable to translate military might into political gain.
Toilet tech is the next frontier of health data — but it might mean putting a camera on your bowl
The Post tried three of the latest toilet health trackers to see if they're worth opening your wallet — and your bathroom door.
Safeguarding health care in rural Missouri demands a new approach
Missouri lawmakers are right to treat the collapse of rural health care as an urgent crisis. Nearly half of the state’s remaining rural hospitals are at risk of closure, and many communities already know what it means to lose emergency rooms, labor and delivery services and timely stroke care. In this environment, legislation allowing MU […]
A sports blitz starts tonight, plus a WNBA Draft surprise
Good morning! I hope your TV is in working order. Coming up: 📆 A busy stretch begins 1️⃣ Dallas’ surprise at No. 1 🏆 Rory’s family win Up First: The NBA leads off a brilliant spring One of the busiest stretches of important pro sporting events begins tonight, and I mean that in quite a positive way. The NBA playoffs tip off in a few hours, with two Play-In games. This weekend, the NHL playoffs will join. Both sports will crown winners by the third week of June … which is when the World Cup will
A sports blitz starts tonight, plus a WNBA Draft surprise
The Pulse Newsletter 📣 | This is The Athletic’s daily sports newsletter. Sign up here to receive The Pulse directly in your inbox. Good morning! I hope your TV is in working order. Coming up: 📆 A busy stretch begins 1️⃣ Dallas’ surprise at No. 1 🏆 Rory’s family win One of the busiest stretches of important pro sporting events begins tonight, and I mean that in quite a positive way. The NBA playoffs tip off in a few hours, with two Play-In games. This weekend, the NHL playoffs will join. Both sports will crown winners by the third week of June … which is when the...
Trump touts 'gold standard science.' What does that actually mean?
The Trump administration says it's returning U.S. science to a golden era. Critics say it's tarnished by political agendas.
DOJ ‘weaponization’ report accuses Biden administration of biased prosecutions against anti-abortion protesters
The Trump Justice Department released a new report Tuesday accusing the Biden administration of unfairly using a federal law meant to protect access to abortion clinics to go after anti-abortion protesters.
Philippine president does jumping jacks to disprove health rumors
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., 68, said the impromptu workout was meant to ease worries about his health as the Southeast Asian nation struggles with fallout from the Iran war.
Tudor Monarch – Watches and Wonders 2026
For its 100-year anniversary, Tudor debuts an entirely new model – the Tudor Monarch – with an integrated design and more decorated calibre.
Partington still has 'hope' Iraola will stay at club
Speaking on the Cherries Unpicked podcast, former Bournemouth midfielder Joe Partington says he still has "hope" that Iraola will decide to stay at the Vitality Stadium beyond this season, despite not committing his future yet. It's not over until the fat lady sings, I suppose, and the Bournemouth fans will hold out hope because they've not had any news that it could still mean it's positive.
Prep Sports Report: Borchers stepping away from Cooper football program he built as first head coach
By Terry Boehmker NKyTribune sports reporter Randy Borchers is leaving the Cooper football program that he created 18 years ago and developed into a state title contender to devote more time to his family. Borchers said he accepted an administrative position in the central office of the Kenton County Board of Education. That means he’ll...
Scientists finally know where the Colorado River’s missing water is going
For years, water managers have been puzzled as the Colorado River kept delivering less water than expected—even when snowpack levels looked promising. New research reveals the missing piece: spring rain, or rather, the lack of it. Warmer, drier springs mean plants are soaking up more snowmelt before it can reach rivers, fueled by sunny skies that boost growth and evaporation. In fact, this shift explains nearly 70% of the shortfall, tying the mystery directly to the long-running Millennium drought.
Quantum systems can remember and forget at the same time, scientists discover
Quantum systems can secretly “remember” their past—even when they appear not to. Scientists found that whether a system shows memory depends on how you look at it: through its evolving state or its measurable properties. Each perspective uncovers different kinds of memory, meaning a system can seem memoryless and memory-filled at the same time. This discovery could change how researchers design and control quantum technologies.
House DFL hopeful that small-business relief from Operation Metro Surge could get GOP votes
Minnesota’s House Ways and Means Committee heard testimony from several business owners, school district members, and city leaders on Monday, as testifiers explained the impact of Operation Metro Surge on their respective spaces.
House DFL hopeful that small-business relief from Operation Metro Surge could get GOP votes
Minnesota’s House Ways and Means Committee heard testimony from several business owners, school district members, and city leaders on Monday, as testifiers explained the impact of Operation Metro Surge on their respective spaces.
How Pope Leo XIV Understands His Role in Politics
Leo doesn’t want to be seen as a rival to President Trump. That doesn’t mean he thinks the gospel is apolitical.
Chagos Islands treaty is now ‘impossible to agree at political level’, UK minister says
Stephen Doughty says US withdrawal of support means bill cannot complete passage through parliament
Eliot Wolf: "Business as usual" for Mike Vrabel in Patriots draft preparations
Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel was not present for the team's pre-draft press conference on Monday, which means that he didn't have to field any questions about the release of photos that have created questions about his relationship with The Athletic's NFL reporter Dianna Russini.
MLB Power Rankings: Let the turnarounds begin? Which teams have already exorcised their early season demons
In the long slog that is a 162-game season, early results can mean nothing -- or everything
What the latest developments in Iran war mean for U.S. politics
The U.S. Military’s blockade of Iran’s ports and coastal areas came into effect this morning.
How to make a high-deductible health plan work for you
An elementary school teacher chose a low-price health insurance plan but soon realized she wasn't clear about what it would mean for her family's finances.
Your guide to who’s who in the MAHA movement
Sure, Americans know Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Mehmet Oz. But Marty Makary? Calley Means?
Arsenal's teetering title challenge
Arsenal's shock 2-1 defeat by Bournemouth at Emirates Stadium means Mikel Arteta's side have picked up just 70 points from 32 games this season. The last Premier League champion to have as few points with six games left to play was Leicester City on 69 points in 2015-16. Only three teams in the last 22 seasons have had as few points at this stage of the season and went on to win the title - Manchester United in 2010-11 (69 points), Manchester City in 2013-14 (70 points) and Leicester City in 2015-16 (69 points).
Chris Brazzell NFL Draft Profile
Doug watches the college film to assess Chris Brazzell's strengths and weaknesses as well as what it likely means for his NFL future.
JAXA's 22-Year Bet on Frozen Comet Samples: What a Multi-Decade Mission Timeline Means for Planetary Science Funding
In the world of planetary science, a decade-long mission is considered ambitious. JAXA, Japan’s space agency, is now weighing something far more audacious: a sample return mission that wouldn’t deliver its cargo until the late 2040s, more than 22 years from the earliest planning stages. The proposed Next Generation Small-Body Return (NGSR) mission to comet […]
What Does Artificial Intelligence Really Mean for Global Politics?
As AI increasingly plays a central role in conflict and war, experts discuss its long-term impact on global politics.
Jim Cramer on D-Wave (QBTS): “Maybe the Science Project Works Out, But It Is More of a Science Project”
D-Wave Quantum Inc. (NYSE:QBTS) is among the stocks Jim Cramer discussed alongside the tech market divide. A caller asked if Cramer thinks companies like D-Wave Quantum are positioned to rebound. In response, Cramer commented: Well, I think it’s more of a, candidly, it’s more of a science project, which I don’t mean, you know, look, […]
'American Pie' star Shannon Elizabeth recalls dancing for Jason Biggs in 'difficult' audition
Shannon Elizabeth says the 'American Pie' Barenaked Ladies scene was flipped for her audition — meaning she hd to dance for Jason Biggs: 'I was really scared.'
What Flutter Entertainment (FLUT)'s Board Shuffle, Buybacks and Quiet Dart Stake Mean For Shareholders
In recent days, Flutter Entertainment plc reported that long-serving independent director Alfred F. Hurley, Jr. will retire at the 2026 AGM, with Nancy Dubuc set to assume the role of Chair of the Compensation and Human Resources Committee, while the company continues executing a multi-billion-dollar share repurchase program. At the same time, billionaire investor Kenneth Dart has quietly built substantial economic exposure to Flutter through total return swaps, even as analysts question...
Op-Ed: Protecting Taxpayers Means Looking Beyond the Politics of Short-Term Rentals
Santa Barbara is on the verge of making a consequential decision about short-term rentals—but without first answering a basic question: what will it cost?
"Sweet blood doesn't attract mosquitoes: here is what actually attracts them according to science " - Futura-Sciences
At night, you hear the constant buzzing of a mosquito. By morning, there’s a fresh bite right on your cheek. Meanwhile, your partner slept peacefully through the night. During a walk with friends, you’re the one constantly swatting at tiny attacks on your legs, arms, and back. Like tiny vampires...
Chris Bell NFL Draft Profile
Doug watches the college film to assess Chris Bell's strengths and weaknesses as well as what it likely means for his NFL future.
April baseball means snowflakes and very brave parents
Attending spring sports games in upstate New York often means cold weather. Here's how to stay warm and entertained.
Samsung Galaxy Z Fold7 now costs more in the US
This means the Galaxy Z Fold8 coming in a few months could cost even more. The Samsung Galaxy Z Fold7, unveiled last July, is expected to get a successor...
Protecting Taxpayers Means Looking Beyond the Politics of Short-Term Rentals
Santa Barbara is on the verge of making a consequential decision about short-term rentals — but without first answering a basic question: What will it cost?
The Universe is expanding too fast and scientists still can’t explain it
A major international effort has produced an ultra-precise measurement of the Universe’s expansion rate, confirming it’s faster than early-Universe models predict. By linking multiple distance-measuring techniques, scientists ruled out simple errors as the cause of the discrepancy. The persistent “Hubble tension” now looks more real than ever. It could mean our current model of the cosmos is incomplete.
Chamber of Commerce Presents Achievement Awards
Event also marked 110th of the chamber’s presence in Oswego [caption id=attachment_10469 align=alignright width=450] Abby Waever and Keara Patterson (in the middle) receive the Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group.[/caption] The Greater Oswego-Fulton Chamber of Commerce (GOFCC) on March 4 hosted its 2026 Annual Meeting, presented by Constellation, at the Lake Ontario Event and Conference Center in Oswego. The event’s theme, Rooted in Community. The meeting celebrated the GOFCC’s 110th anniversary in the Oswego community and 10th anniversary of integration with CenterState CEO. The chamber also unveiled a new logo. “I am proud to say the GOFCC has been a force for business success, growth and opportunity, supporting organizations of every size, connecting neighbors and entrepreneurs and ensuring that every voice in Oswego County is heard,” said GOFCC Executive Director Sara Broadwell. The event featured keynote remarks from Novelis’s Kevin Schutt, vice president, manufacturing and production support at Novelis North America. [caption id=attachment_10454 align=alignright width=450] Maria Hudson of Constellation, holding the award, receives the Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award.[/caption] The GOFCC recognized the following organizations and individuals with achievement awards: • Oswego County Impact & Excellence Award, presented to Oswego County Office of Mobility Management. This award Honors a small business or nonprofit organization that demonstrates outstanding achievement through innovation, growth and measurable positive impact on Oswego County’s economy or quality of life. • Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group. This award recognizes an individual, business or organization whose long-term leadership, investment or philanthropy has significantly advanced the vitality, resilience and future of Oswego County’s communities. • Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award, presented to Maria Hudson of Constellation. This award honors a woman in business who has made a meaningful impact on her community, inspired others through her leadership, and exemplified the values of service, integrity and empowerment. This award is presented in tribute to the late Nancy Premo, CenterState CEO’s former vice president of Human Resources.
2026 Greenville Heart Walk shines spotlight on survivors and heart health
“The purpose, the meaning of this Heart Walk is just community.”
Markquese Bell arrested, Cowboys safety facing drug possession charges
Cowboys safety Markquese Bell was arrested on both felony and misdemeanor drug charges. Here's what to know about his arrest.
Why are people calling Trump a TACO again? What is TACO Trump meaning
Why are people calling Trump a TACO? Here's what TACO Trump stands for and meaning of the acronym.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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In praise of popular science
As a kid, I was enthusiastically and unreservedly in favor of a manned space program. Our destiny lay in the stars, I figured. Get people out there. We need Star Trek here and now. As I got older, I became rather disenchanted with the idea. Humans are expensive, fragile, and inefficient as space cargo. We could flood the solar system with 100 robotic probes for the price of any single manned mission and get back just as useful data. Besides, it turns out space travel is dangerous. Tusk is a reader-supported publication. To support this work, please become a paid subscriber. Subscribe When it came to the recent Artemis II mission, my cynical side didn’t really see the point. Flying around the Moon and back is literally something we did before I was born, and I once owned a Members Only jacket. Apollo 8 circled the Moon ten times and returned to Earth safely the same month that “Chitty Chitty Bang Bang” was released. What was the point of repeating a feat that far braver people once did with tin foil and slide rules? Yet I’ve surprised myself with how moving I’ve found the Artemis II mission to be. The photos have been stunning. The crew has been professional and engaging. There have been modest but important milestones — the farthest humans have travelled from Earth; the first woman, person of color, and non-American to leave low-Earth orbit; innovations in communication, and more. One thing that really stood out is that this is really NASA at its finest. Not that this is the most important mission they ever pulled off, but they did this in a competent way that celebrated the achievements and kept the crew and the science at the forefront of the project. This wasn’t some billionaire throwing celebrities or cars into orbit as a vanity project — this was a collective effort to send experts in to do a job and come home safely. We don’t see that sort of thing much these days. I’m guessing few people would describe many government agencies as inspiring, but this one counts for me. We’re living through a profoundly anti-science era, in which pathbreaking, lifesaving discoveries like mRNA vaccines are routinely downplayed or even vilified. As I’ve noted previously, this era is something like that of the Red Scare in the 1940s and 50s, in which “egghead” professors were portrayed as out of touch or even hostile to regular Americans. One of the things that helped break that spell was Sputnik — the Soviet communications satellite that demonstrated that the United States was falling behind in crucial scientific research and applications. Its launch triggered a new appreciation for American science and goaded the federal government into supporting research universities and labs. I’m not saying that Artemis is the equivalent of Sputnik, but it potentially reminds people that there’s some value to scientific endeavors and the human faces attached to them. Despite my love for the show “For All Mankind,” I’m far from convinced that there’s any real value to putting colonies on the Moon or Mars that would justify the capital investment and the massive health risks to the astronauts. But sending scientific good will ambassadors on a trip into space once in a while? Bring it. Share
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