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Mizzou shines coast-to-coast with big weekend results
The distance squad delivers in a big way, stacking top-10 finishes across a packed Saturday
NYU Langone Health neurologists present latest clinical findings and research at AAN 2026
This year’s meeting features more than 80 presentations from Department of Neurology faculty. Here are notable highlights: practical strategies to counter harmful medical myths and misinformation, phase 3 clinical results for a novel epilepsy medication, and the barriers patients with disabilities face while navigating outpatient facilities.
Can I trust health advice from an AI chatbot?
Abi has had very mixed results when asking a chatbot for guidance about her health issues.
Pancreatic cancer mRNA vaccine shows lasting results in an early trial
Scientists caution that more research is needed, but nearly all of the patients who responded to the personalized vaccine are still alive six years later.
Somali-owned Minnesota transportation company calls contract cancellation ‘blatant discrimination’
Medical Transportation Management’s decision to end its contract with Southdale Transportation Services could result in 95 workers losing their jobs.
Eight days key to Portsmouth's likely survival
While Portsmouth are not mathematically safe, their past three results in eight days have been crucial to their hopes of staying up.
Vermont high school sports scores, results, stats for Saturday, April 18
Vermont high school sports scores and results as reported to the Burlington Free Press sports department.
When is a war a ‘just war’?
An interesting result of President Donald Trump’s strange and mostly one-sided feud with the pope is that there is something of a debate, through the lens of Catholic theology, about whether the US and Israel’s war on Iran is a “just war.”
How Inter can mathematically win Serie A title next weekend
Inter can win the 2025-26 Serie A title next weekend, but they must beat Torino away and hope for favourable results from Napoli and Milan.Inter’s 3-0 win over Cagliari on Friday allowed the Nerazzu...
Barcelona finally seeing results as key versatile playmaker finds form
At one point this season, it looked like Dani Olmo was slipping down the pecking order at Barcelona. The Spaniard faced intense competition from Fermin Lopez for the attacking midfield role, with the...
Appleton area high school sports results for Friday, April 17
High school softball, baseball, soccer and golf teams were in action.
Green Bay area high school sports results for Friday, April 17
High school baseball, softball and soccer teams were in action.
Free Healthy Heart Clinic offers screenings at 9 Henry Ford Health locations
Everything from an EKG to blood sugar levels will get checked, plus doctors will be there to talk to you and explain the results.
UFC Winnipeg weigh-in results: All fighters on point
The fighters competing on Saturday's UFC Winnipeg fight card officially weighed in on Friday at the host hotel. All fighters officially weighed weight for the contests. The event is. headlined by a welterweight bout between former title challenger Gilbert Burns and Canadian Mike Malott. Both men ...
Vermont high school sports scores, results, stats for Friday, April 17
Vermont high school sports scores and results as reported to the Burlington Free Press sports department.
Apple to Upgrade These Two Devices With OLED Displays Later This Year
Apple plans to release iPad mini and MacBook Pro models with OLED displays this year, according to industry sources who spoke to South Korea's ETNews. The current iPad mini and MacBook Pro models have LCD displays with either LED or mini-LED backlighting. The move to OLED technology would result in improved image quality, thanks to richer colors and higher contrast ratio with true blacks. Samsung will supply the OLED displays for both devices, the report said.
Green Bay area high school sports results for Thursday, April 16
High school softball, baseball and soccer teams were in action.
Appleton area high school sports results for Thursday, April 16
High school baseball, softball and soccer teams were in action.
How Islamophobic rhetoric leaves an impact on the mental health of Muslim Americans
Negative portrayals of Muslims shape public attitudes and lead to increased discrimination, often resulting in hate crimes and psychological harm.
Judge dismisses CVS-Aetna’s lawsuit against Radiology Partners
"This case reflects a troubling pattern in which payers, dissatisfied with IDR results, increasingly try to attack those outcomes outside the framework Congress created," Rad Partners says.
Politics correspondent examines new California governor's race poll results
Politics and government correspondent Guy Marzorati joined NBC Bay Area’s Raj Mathai to examine the first major statewide poll conducted after Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race.
San Jose State deaths raise mental health concerns
San Jose State University has seen two deaths by suicide within a month this year. The tragedies have opened a window into a paradox facing Silicon Valley cities and institutions: addressing public locations that result in self-harm without sparking a "contagion."
Democrats want the full 2024 election autopsy released — no matter the findings
DNC Chair Ken Martin told party officials he planned to release some of the results, sources said. But more than a dozen Democrats said they want to see the full scope of the problems.
Seaport Entertainment Group Announces First Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call
NEW YORK, April 16, 2026--Seaport Entertainment Group Inc. (NYSE: SEG) ("Seaport Entertainment Group," "SEG" or the "Company") today announced it will release its first quarter 2026 operating and financial results after the market closes on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. The Company will host a conference call and audio webcast to discuss the results on Thursday, May 7, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET.
NJ special election: Live updates and results on Mejia vs. Hathaway
A seat in the U.S. House is up for grabs in a special election for New Jersey's 11th District. Follow along live.
Price war: Apple's 1TB M5 MacBook Pro dips to $1,580
Apple retailers are embroiled in a MacBook Pro price war this Thursday, resulting in the 1TB M5 14-inch model falling to $1,580.
Vermont high school sports scores, results, stats for Thursday, April 16
Vermont high school sports scores and results as reported to the Burlington Free Press sports department.
Chargé Arnold Speech - Implementation Plan of Five-Year Health MOU - U.S. Embassy in Madagascar
Chargée d’Affaires Stephanie Arnold's Speech Discussion on the implementation plan for the five-year health Memorandum of Understanding (…) Colleagues, and honored guests, Good morning, and welcome to the United States Embassy. It is a pleasure to host you today for the second day of this important workshop to discuss the implementation of our bilateral health Memorandum of Understanding on U.S. Government health activities in Madagascar, made possible through the Trump Administration’s America First Global Health Strategy. Today’s focus— discussing a shared vision and developing a preliminary draft for the health MOU Implementation Plan and the terms of reference for the two committees that will steer its implementation—is a decisive step in moving from commitments on paper to concrete action over the next five years. On December 22, 2025, the Governments of Madagascar and the United States signed a five-year bilateral health MOU, with a financial intention of approximately 554 billion Ariary from the United States and This jointly decided MOU intends to strengthen Madagascar’s health system, support lifesaving services, and improve disease prevention and response that matter to both our countries’ health security. For the United States, this means detecting and containing infectious disease outbreaks including malaria, polio, and emerging health threats before they can reach American shores through international travel and trade, protecting American families while reducing the need for costly domestic emergency responses Yesterday, technical experts from the Ministry of Public Health and the U.S. Government worked in thematic groups to draft a preliminary Implementation Plan. Today, your task is to review the shared vision and preliminary draft MOU implementation plan, and the proposed terms of reference for the Joint Steering Committee and the Operational Committee that will guide its implementation. These committees are not just administrative structures. They are the mechanisms that will ensure clear roles and responsibilities, regular dialogue between our two governments, consistent monitoring of progress, and real accountability for the results that will directly benefit the lives of Malagasy citizens. They will also track performance against the benchmarks we have jointly established, which will guide the continuation of U.S. support over the five-year period . Continued U.S. support will be contingent on meeting these performance benchmarks. This ensures accountability to both American and Malagasy taxpayers and guarantees that our partnership delivers measurable results. America First Foreign Assistance means that U.S. support must be strategic, results-driven, and accountable to our taxpayers. It also means we aim to support greater self-reliance and reduced long-term dependence on foreign assistance, with systems that are increasingly financed and led by Madagascar itself. This approach benefits both our nations: Madagascar gains sustainable health capacity, while the United States advances our health security interests and creates opportunities for American health innovations and companies to support Madagascar’s development. In that spirit, I want to recognize the presence of the Ministry’s leadership and the technical directors and program heads responsible for surveillance, basic health services, family health, immunization, countering malaria, laboratories, medicines, and health information systems. Your leadership and technical expertise are essential if this bilateral health MOU is to translate into real and lasting improvements for people in need across the country. Let me emphasize how important collaboration is to the United States in this effort. We can bring American resources, technical expertise, and tools. But this bilateral health MOU can only succeed if it reflects Madagascar’s priorities and if Malagasy institutions lead and maintain its implementation. We see this not as a U.S. project, but as a joint framework under Malagasy leadership, with U.S. support. That is why we are genuinely pleased to host this event here at the Embassy. Opening our doors to you today symbolizes our commitment to work side by side and to remain transparent about how we use U.S. resources in support of Madagascar’s health system. In closing, thank you for your time and your partnership. We are very happy to welcome you here and proud to accompany Madagascar in this next step of implementation planning for our bilateral health MOU. I wish you a productive and focused session. The work you do today will shape how our two governments cooperate on health in the years ahead; it will influence the quality and reliability of health services that Malagasy communities receive; and, most importantly, it will help protect both our nations from infectious disease threats while building Madagascar’s capacity for long-term health system sustainability. Thank you.
In the Katzmann Lecture, Senator Andy Kim takes aim at political corruption
Last year’s edition of Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, which gauges countries’ perceived resistance to corruption, gave the United States its lowest score since the index’s current scale debuted in 2012. That result likely would not surprise US Senator Andy Kim of New Jersey, who focused on corruption in politics when he delivered the fifth annual Robert A. Katzmann Lecture on April 6. The event honors the career and impact of the late Judge Katzmann of the US Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, a professor of practice at NYU Law.
United States and Madagascar Discuss Five-Year Health MOU Implementation Plan - U.S. Embassy in Madagascar
United States and Madagascar Discuss Five-Year Health MOU Implementation Plan The United States and Madagascar’s Ministry of Public Health are in the process of developing a plan for implementing the U.S.-Madagascar five-year Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on health cooperation, signed under the Trump Administration’s America First Global Health Strategy. The two-day workshop, at the U.S. Embassy in Antananarivo, brought together technical experts and senior leadership from the Malagasy and U.S. governments to discuss a shared vision through a preliminary draft MOU Implementation Plan and to establish the joint governance structures that will guide U.S. foreign assistance in health over the next five years. The jointly decided bilateral health MOU, signed on December 22, 2025, builds on decades of U.S. global health assistance to Madagascar. The health MOU involves the U.S.’s plans, working with Congress, to provide approximately $134 million (over 554 billion Ariary) and a Malagasy commitment of $41 million (over 169 billion Ariary). It aims to strengthen Madagascar’s health system, improve disease prevention and response, and support services that address health security concerns for both countries, including malaria, maternal and child health, polio, and global health security issues that could reach U.S. shores if not contained at their source. During the recent workshop, technical staff from the Ministry of Public Health and the U.S. Government health team worked in thematic groups to draft detailed implementation plans for the five-year MOU period. On the second day, U.S. Chargé d’Affaires Stephanie Arnold and Ministry of Public Health and Economic and Finance Ministry leadership joined the technical teams to discuss plans and proposed terms of reference for two committees: a Joint Steering Committee and an Operational Committee. These structures will ensure clear roles and responsibilities, regular dialogue between the two governments, consistent monitoring of progress, and accountability for results. The framework includes performance benchmarks that will guide continued U.S. support and track Madagascar’s progress toward self-reliance. “We see this not as a U.S. project, but as a joint framework under Malagasy leadership, with U.S. support,” said U.S. Chargé d’Affaires Stephanie Arnold during the workshop’s opening session. The approach reflects U.S. foreign assistance principles that emphasize strategic, results-driven support that advances American interests while helping recipient countries build sustainable health systems. The framework is designed to build systems that Madagascar will increasingly finance and lead itself, reducing long-term dependence on foreign assistance.
Broker Marsh's profit rises on strong risk and insurance business
Insurance broker Marsh reported a rise in first-quarter adjusted profit on Thursday, driven by robust results in its risk and insurance services unit.
High school sports results for Wednesday, April 15, 2026
WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS Baseball WPIAL CLASS 6A Section 1 North Allegheny 8, Central Catholic 7 (8) Section 2 Canon-McMillan 3, Mt. Lebanon 2 WPIAL CLASS...
Scientists discover hidden ocean methane source that could worsen global warming
Scientists have discovered that methane in the open ocean is produced by microbes under nutrient-poor conditions, solving a long-standing mystery. As warming oceans reduce nutrient mixing, these methane-producing microbes may thrive. This could lead to increased methane emissions from the sea. The result is a potential feedback loop that could intensify climate change.
Live Results: New Jersey special congressional election to replace Mikie Sherrill
Residents of New Jersey's 11th Congressional District will have a representative in Congress for the first time this year after a special election on Thursday.
Arsenal 0 Sporting 0: Arteta’s men do enough to set up Atletico Madrid semi-final
After a recent run of poor results, Arsenal hold firm to progress to the Champions League semi-finals
Traws Pharma Reports Full Year 2025 Results and Provides Business Highlights
Tivoxavir marboxil advancing towards a human influenza challenge trial as a once-monthly prophylactic agent, building on broad preclinical antiviral activity, Ratutrelvir topline Phase 2a data show a differentiated profile versus PAXLOVID® in COVID patients, with good overall safety; final study analysis underway Private financing of up to $60M (with $10M of such amount upfront) offering of common stock and milestone-based and three-year warrants completed on April 15, 2026 supporting operations
ICARUS experiment marks major milestone in first neutrino science results
The milestone by ICARUS paves the way to probe sterile‑neutrino oscillations for the full Short-Baseline Neutrino Program at Fermilab. The first results demonstrate the data’s excellent quality and suitability for physics analyses, as well as the maturity of the software tools for event selection, fitting and detector simulation.
Vermont high school sports scores, results, stats for Wednesday, April 15
Vermont high school sports scores and results as reported to the Burlington Free Press sports department.
Green Bay area high school sports results for Tuesday, April 14
High school baseball, softball, track and field, and golf teams were in action.
Appleton area high school sports results for Tuesday, April 14
High school baseball, softball, track and field, and golf teams were in action.
Brevard County HS Sports Weekly Results, Week of April 13-18
Brevard County HS Sports Weekly Results, Week of April 13-18
As Vance rallies with Turning Point, some supporters bristle at Trump's war, memes and feuds
Vice President JD Vance used a Turning Point USA event to defend President Donald Trump’s aggression in Iran and downplay the resulting tensions between Washington and the Vatican | WBEN
High school sports results for Tuesday, April 14, 2026
TUESDAY’S RESULTS Baseball CITY LEAGUE Carrick 7, Perry 0 WPIAL CLASS 6A Section 1 Seneca Valley 11, North Hills 1 Section 2 Norwin 12, Woodland...
Harrisburg appoints new business administrator; council concerned with his experience, hasty vote
Harrisburg has a new chief of staff. At a meeting Tuesday, City Council approved Antonio Megna as the new business administrator, a position that has been vacant since a legal battle between council and the mayor resulted in the former office-holder’s termination. Megna previously served as the special assistant to the business administrator for about […]
This simple change stops robot swarms from getting stuck
In crowded environments, more robots don’t always mean faster results—in fact, too many can bring everything to a standstill. Harvard researchers discovered a surprising fix: adding a bit of randomness to how robots move can actually prevent gridlock and boost efficiency. By allowing robots to “wiggle” slightly instead of marching in straight lines, they can slip past each other and keep tasks flowing smoothly.
Tylenol in pregnancy not linked with autism, Danish study finds
The use of Tylenol by women during pregnancy was not associated with autism in their children, according to results of a nationwide study in Denmark published on Monday.
Vermont high school sports scores, results, stats for Tuesday, April 14
Vermont high school sports scores and results as reported to the Burlington Free Press sports department.
You can order your own bloodwork now. Interpreting the results is another story
Firms like Function Health and Oura market regular blood tests to people wanting to take their health into their own hands. The process often raises more questions for patients than it can answer.
Scientists just recreated a rare cosmic reaction never seen before
A breakthrough experiment has shed new light on one of astrophysics’ biggest mysteries: the origin of rare proton-rich elements. For the first time, scientists directly measured a key reaction that creates selenium-74 using a rare isotope beam. The results sharpen models of how these elements form in supernova explosions, cutting uncertainty in half. But the findings also reveal gaps in current theories, hinting that the story isn’t complete yet.
Personnel note: Ivan Rodriguez-Seda joins Continental Strategy’s Jax office
'He has a proven record of delivering results on complex issues, securing hundreds of millions in funding, and building coalitions internationally.'
Italy's surprise rise in exports to US masks deep fragility to tariffs
Italy was the only major EU country whose exports to the United States grew last year despite Donald Trump's tariffs. The result was hailed by Rome's government, but a closer look at the data shows one-off factors at play and little underlying resilience.
High school sports results for Monday, April 13, 2026
MONDAY’S RESULTS Baseball CITY LEAGUE Obama Academy 14, Carrick 0 (5) WPIAL CLASS 6A Section 1 North Allegheny 6, Central Catholic 1 North Hills...
Scientists Uncover Brain Changes That Link Pain to Depression
A hidden process in the brain may quietly decide whether long-term pain results in resilience or depression.
Tylenol in pregnancy not linked with autism, Danish study finds
The use of Tylenol by women during pregnancy was not associated with autism in their children, according to results of a nationwide study in Denmark published on Monday.
'Really, really weird': Physicists entangle two moving atoms for the first time, validating 'spooky' quantum theory
For the first time, scientists have observed quantum entanglement in the momentum of massive particles. The result, decades in the making, could help physicists probe the relationship between quantum mechanics and gravity.
Vermont high school sports scores, results, stats for Monday, April 13
Vermont high school sports scores and results as reported to the Burlington Free Press sports department.
The AI Revolution in Math Has Arrived
AI is being used to prove new results at a rapid pace. Mathematicians think this is just the beginning.
How Orban Lost His Touch, and Hungary’s Election
The election defeat for Prime Minister Viktor Orban is less the result of an ideological shift in Hungary, and more the playing out of a fundamental rule of politics.
MLB Power Rankings: Let the turnarounds begin? Which teams have already exorcised their early season demons
In the long slog that is a 162-game season, early results can mean nothing -- or everything
Kustom Entertainment, Inc. Reports Significant Financial Improvements for Fiscal Year 2025 and Files Annual Report on Form 10-K
Company Highlights $11.9 Million Improvement in Net Loss, Strategic Divestiture of Non-Core Assets, and Forbes Recognition for TicketSmarter OVERLAND PARK, KS, April 13, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Kustom Entertainment, Inc. (NASDAQ: KUST) (“Kustom” or the “Company”), a leader in live entertainment and digital ticketing, today announced its financial results for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. The Company also confirmed the filing of its Annual Report on Form 10-K with the U.S. Securities
PAHO’s 2025 Country Reports highlight the Region’s progress in health
Washington, D.C., April 10, 2026 (PAHO) — The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) today presented the 2025 Annual Reports of its country offices, detailing the main results of technical cooperation achieved in collaboration with governments and strategic partners across the Region.Each report highlights concrete results, impacts, and stories from the field stemming from PAHO’s technical cooperation tailored to each country’s context and health priorities.
PureTech Health: Notice of Results
BOSTON, April 13, 2026--PureTech Health: Notice of Results
European chemical firms, hit hard by Iran war, to report falling Q1 earnings
European chemical companies are expected to report weaker first-quarter results, shedding light on how deep the impact from the war in the Middle East has been on an industry largely seen as one of the most exposed to it.
Hungarian opposition party set to oust Orbán with half of votes counted
The final result will be known early Monday morning.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán ousted after 'painful' election result, ending 16 years in power
Hungarian voters on Sunday ousted long-serving Prime Minister Viktor Orbán after 16 years in power, rejecting the authoritarian policies and global far-right movement that he embodied in favor of a pro-European challenger.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán concedes defeat after 'painful' election result, ending 16 years in power
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán conceded defeat on Sunday after what he called a ″painful″ election result, ending 16 years in power.
Early results in Hungary's election show opposition party leading and Prime Minister Orbán's trailing
Hungarians cast ballots Sunday in Europe's most consequential election this year, setting a record turnout in a vote that could unseat populist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán after 16 years in power.
Green Bay area high school sports results for Saturday, April 11
High school baseball, softball, soccer, track and field, and golf teams were in action.
Appleton area high school sports results for Saturday, April 11
High school baseball, softball, soccer, lacrosse, track and field, and golf teams were in action.
“I stopped digging through folders”: How OmniSearch changed the way I find files on Windows 11
OmniSearch blends instant results, previews, and cleanup tools into one powerful search experience.
Early data promising on RI's evolving behavioral health model
Rhode Island's certified community behavioral health clinics are showing promising results, increasing access and improving outcomes, the author says.
GameChannel: Live Scores & Updates
Check out matchups and games, live scores, updates, results, top performers and team comparisons for your favorite sports and fantasy leagues.
How The Narrative Is Shifting For Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) After Guidance Reset And Target Cuts
Flutter Entertainment’s fair value estimate has been reduced from US$207.44 to US$197.35, lowering the modeled upside by about 4.9%. That change aligns with more cautious research following weaker Q4 results and lower 2026 guidance. At the same time, analysts continue to discuss long term execution and valuation questions from both bullish and bearish perspectives. Read on to see how these revised targets fit into the evolving story and what to watch as new data emerges. Stay updated as the...
RESULTS: 5K Race Winners at 2026 Covenant Health Knoxville Marathon
KNOXVILLE, Tenn. (WATE) — Covenant Health Knoxville Marathon weekend is underway! The first day of races began Saturday evening with Covenant Health Kids Run the 5K race. The 5K race began Saturday…
High school sports results for Saturday, April 11, 2026
SATURDAY’S RESULTS Baseball NON-SECTION Albert Gallatin 4, Steel Valley 0 Toronto, Ohio 20, Carrick 0 Softball WPIAL CLASS 5A Section 2 Kiski Area...
3 arrested after shooting at Clanton business
No one was injured as a result of the shooting.
Rhode Island Marijuana Business License Lottery Blocked By Federal Judge Amid Challenge To Residency Rules
“Knowing the Act was facing legal challenges…CCC continued forward with its plan to implement the Act and its licensing scheme. The resulting fall-out will be, to be blunt, self-inflicted.” By Christopher Shea, Rhode Island Currant Nearly 100 applicants vying for 20 new cannabis retail licenses that were supposed to be awarded via lottery as soon […]
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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