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Honorable mentions on the list of Tampa Bay’s Most Powerful Politicians: Josie Tomkow, Wilton Simpson and Jay Collins
All 3 face voters at the ballot box this year, but only 2 have uncertain political futures.
Social media erupts after Mamdani's far-left supporters turn on him over homeless shelter: 'Oops'
East Village voters who backed Mayor Zohran Mamdani by a 40-point margin are now suing to stop a homeless shelter plan, drawing conservative criticism online.
A New Worry for Republicans: Latino Catholics Offended by Trump
In 2024, the president made significant inroads with Hispanics. But in a competitive Arizona congressional district, voters now express dismay at his feud with the pope.
'Jeopardy!' champ Jamie Ding fights Trump pursuit of voter information
The naturalized U.S. citizen and game show star fears the federal government will use the information to retaliate against political dissidents.
Republicans fail to attach SAVE America Act to party-line funding package
Senate Republicans Tom Tillis, Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins and Mitch McConnell voted against a voter ID amendment to the GOP immigration enforcement funding bill.
The ‘Make America Healthy Again’ Movement Is Cooling on Trump and Republicans
Vaccine skeptics, ‘organic moms’ and environmental activists came together toelect President Trump. Butsome voters are disillusioned and might not turn out again.
Scotland business pushes for alcohol proposition
In the small community of Scotland, the owner of Snookies Craft Kitchen is pushing for voters to vote yes to Proposition A: “To legalize the legal sale of all alcoholic beverages including mixed beverages.”
Young voters squeezed by economy and distrust political systems in new poll
Roughly half of young Americans said they are affected by inflation, and 45% said they are struggling to make ends meet in new Harvard Youth Poll.
New Mexico governor candidates debate economic growth, business plans in Santa Fe
Five candidates hoping to become the next governor of New Mexico stated their case to voters at a forum Wednesday evening in Santa Fe.
Judge bars certification of Virginia redistricting results; state AG promises appeal
A congressional map approved by Virginia voters that aims to help Democrats net four US House seats in November’s midterms faces another legal hurdle just one day after its passage. Tazewell County Circuit Court Judge Jack Hurley on Wednesday ordered that the results of Tuesday’s vote not be certified on several grounds, including that state lawmakers did not follow their own rules in passing the redistricting referendum. State Attorney General Jay Jones said his office intends to immediately appeal Hurley’s Wednesday ruling. The fate of Virginia’s referendum was already before the state Supreme Court, which stayed a previous ruling by Hurley in the run-up to the referendum and allowed Tuesday’s vote to proceed before deciding the merits of that case.
Virginia follows California, approves ballot measure to redistrict mid-decade
It’s been less than six months since California voters approved a new congressional map that could enable Democrats to flip as many as five House seats now held by Republicans. Now, Virginia is following the same playbook.
Is tit-for-tat political gerrymandering the future of US politics?
Virginia voters delivered a major win to Democrats on Tuesday.A narrow majority voted to allow lawmakers to bypass the state's bipartisan redistricting commission. That means the Democratic-led legislature will create a map that’s more favorable to them in the midterms.It's the latest chapter in a redistricting saga that President Trump started last year, but is the tit-for-tat redistricting battle the future of US electoral politics?We speak with Democratic Virginia governor Abigail Spanberger to hear her perspective.For sponsor-free episodes of Consider This, sign up for Consider This+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org.Email us at considerthis@npr.org.This episode was produced by Tyler Bartlam and Matt Ozug. It was edited by Tinbete Ermyas. Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun.
A state-by-state look at the narrowing redistricting battle for the U.S. House
Virginia voters on Tuesday approved a constitutional amendment authorizing a Democratic redistricting plan that could help the party win several additional House seats in this year’s elections. Next up could be Florida.
National survey shows majority of voters support ceasefire in Iran
Seventy-five percent approve of a ceasefire in the war, while 24% disapprove.
National survey shows majority of voters support ceasefire in Iran
Seventy-five percent approve of a ceasefire in the war, while 24% disapprove.
Trump advisers privately strategize around a new midterm push: Democrats would be worse
President Donald Trump’s political team knows voters aren’t thrilled with the current state of affairs. But they’re betting they can convince them things will get markedly worse if Democrats win back power in November.
Scottish Parliament election: Campaigning continues across the country
Voters will go the polls on 7 May to elect 129 members of the Scottish Parliament.
Virginians approve Democratic map targeting 4 Republican congressional seats
Virginia voters on Tuesday approved a new Democratic-drawn congressional map that could flip four Republican U.S. House seats in November's midterm elections, U.S. media projected.
Voters Approving Virginia Democratic Gerrymander Puts Democrats on Cusp of 218 House Seats in Ratings, but Questions Remain
Four House ratings move in Democrats' favor
Virginia voters just handed Democrats another win in the Great Redistricting Wars
Trump’s gerrymandering efforts are backfiring.
Virginia voters back redistricting amendment after months of legal and political battles
Virginia voters on Tuesday approved a constitutional amendment allowing mid-decade congressional redistricting, a move expected to dramatically reshape the state’s political map and potentially shift its congressional delegation from a closely divided 6-5 split to a heavily Democratic-leaning 10-1 advantage.
Virginia voters will approve a map giving Democrats a chance at four more House seats, CNN projects
Virginia voters will approve a map that gives Democrats the chance to net as many as four US House seats, CNN’s Decision Desk projects, in a major boost to the party’s effort to win House control in the midterms.
SBA administrator speaks to ABC13 on economic uncertainty ahead of midterm elections: 'It's a blip'
With the war in Iran and growing costs creating uncertainty, the economy is atop voters minds heading into the 2026 midterms. While data reveals Texas is faring better economically than much of the country, growth might be slowing.
The key areas to watch in Virginia tonight as voters weigh Democrats' redistricting plan: From the Politics Desk
Plus, Georgia's Republican primary for Senate is heating up.
No. 22 on the list of Tampa Bay’s Most Powerful Politicians: Michael Owen
Owen has positioned himself as a champion for local voters rather than a top-down policymaker.
Internal documents shed light on Trump’s crusade to vet state voter rolls
The Trump administration has been working for nearly a year on an effort to weed out noncitizens from voter rolls using a faulty data system while keeping those plans hidden from courts and Democratic election officials, internal Justice Department communications obtained by CNN show.
Democrats win Virginia redistricting fight, threating Republican House majority
Virginia voters passed a redistricting referendum that could boost Democrats with four additional House seats ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Name of Walz's new 3-word PAC draws immediate online mockery
Gov. Tim Walz launches the Small Town PAC to reach rural voters, but conservatives immediately mocked the effort and blasted his record on social media.
Shaky political science: using "simulated" elections over real-world elections
[Dear DSOS readers – this article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in early December, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting. We found that many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data, and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first three articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report, the second one analyzing a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report, and a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research]. In this fourth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we shine a spotlight on seven studies that were web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group (the ERRG is an ad hoc committee headed by New America’s Political Reform Program and joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Unite America Institute and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law). This research consortium has been led by Lee Drutman, senior fellow with New America’s Political Reform Program. These seven studies are simply not credible from any objective standard about how political “science” is supposed to illuminate our understanding of either ranked choice voting or politics in general. The feature that six of these seven studies have in common is that they all used surveys – artificial, simulated elections -- to attempt to say something cogent or interesting about ranked choice voting (RCV) elections. None of them used real world data from actual RCV elections – either the 1000+ elections in the US or the many thousands of elections from places like Australia, Ireland and elsewhere where RCV has been used for 100 years. While a few of these studies conclude with some mixed positives about RCV, our analysis here is content neutral. The idea that, with a political reform like RCV, you can ask respondents in a mock, artificial election to vote with that method, with only the barest of explanation about how RCV works or its likely impacts (i.e. no spoiler candidates, majority winners, voters liberated to pick their favorite candidates, coalition-building), and then ask them their thoughts/reactions about voting in that system, with fake candidates and no real campaigning, no real exposure to an actual election or actual candidates, rests on some very puzzling assumptions. The findings of these seven studies actually are contradicted by the findings from many other studies based on real-world RCV elections. These New America studies also failed to list the real-world RCV studies in their own citations, instead including those studies that reinforced their conclusions. The seven studies featured in this article were chosen because they form a cohesive cohort which precisely illustrates one of the main points of our research paper, namely that using surveys, i.e. artificial elections, or mathematical/theoretical models, instead of real-world data, is in fact “shaky political science.” Below are summaries of our analysis of five of the seven New America studies. You can read our complete analysis of all seven studies at our paper, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting.” Choosing to “Vote As Usual” by Andre Blais, Carolina Plescia, and Semra Sevi. New America. (Blais et al., 2021). This study, web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group, used two surveys in which respondents completed ballots for simulated elections using plurality, approval, RCV and point (Score) voting. In both cases the authors provided the respondents with only minimal explanation of each method. For example, the entire explanation for RCV was “For this vote, rank the candidates from your first to your last choice (you do not need to rank them all). This is called the ranked vote.” That’s it. The study did not provide any context or explanation to survey respondents about why she/he might want to rank multiple candidates. Participants were not even told that ballots would be tabulated using an “instant” runoff, not to mention any description of RCVs ability to eliminate the spoiler effect or liberate voters to rank their favorite candidates without fear of helping the “greater evil” candidate to win. That’s like taking an iPhone back in time to 1970 and asking someone if they like it better than their rotary phone without explaining how it works. Their first survey targeted states that held 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and used the real candidates’ names in the survey; the second survey used fictitious candidates. In other words, they surveyed respondents who had only ever participated in plurality elections, had no history or background with using RCV or any of the other methods, had no clue about its likely impacts, and did not communicate how the alternative methods would be counted, and then asked them: “How satisfied are you with using each system?” Predictably, the winner was plurality elections, the system used for president, Congress, gubernatorial and state legislative elections – in other words, the method they have been using, year after year, all their voting lives. With so little explanation of RCV and its impacts, this study is simply not credible in discovering anything useful about real-world RCV elections. It merely shows that a basic voter education campaign is needed when adopting a new election system. Additionally, the result contradicts many other post-election surveys following real RCV elections, asking opinions from voters who had just participated in a RCV election, that showed a great deal of satisfaction with RCV (see details on that in Studies 22-25 in our paper, as well as the four studies cited in the review for Study 28). Share Other studies on “satisfaction” and “understanding” make similar mistakes, in terms of basing their surveys on inadequate explanation to respondents and lack of education about context. How could any survey ever hope to measure accurately, in essence simulate a real-world election, without actual campaigning candidates, the media writing about those candidates, organizations endorsing candidates and voters being inundated with crucial information? More than anything, what these “studies” based on surveys show is that if you ask voters about something they don’t know very much about, and fail to adequately educate them, their responses will unsurprisingly reflect their confusion. Equally puzzling is that New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group, headed by political scientist Lee Drutman, found this to be a credible enough study that they not only published it but highlighted it in Drutman’s own discussion of research related to ranked choice voting. This pattern was repeated in study after study featured by New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group. For example in Ranked-Choice Voting and Political Expression: Voter Guides Narrow the Gap between Informed and Uninformed Citizens by Cheryl Boudreau, Jonathan Colner, and Scott MacKenzie, the researchers based their analysis on a survey which found that respondents who were asked to vote in a simulated RCV election, with minimal explanation of RCV or how it works, displayed less evidence of being informed about how to use RCV effectively, with the least informed voters ranking fewer candidates. As pointed out under the study above, in a real election voters are informed by a wide variety of methods, including public education by the election administration, by interested political groups, the media, and the candidates themselves who benefit from voters being aware of how to vote in the new system. In Support for Ranked-Choice Voting across Race and Partisanship by Joseph Anthony, David C. Kimball, Jack Santucci and Jamil Scott, the researchers used respondents from different parties and races voting in simulated plurality and RCV elections, who indicated their satisfaction with each voting method. Instead of using real world election results, the authors fell back on the easy, armchair and less reliable academic research methodology of making up mock elections. As with the other studies, little explanation was given of how RCV works or what its implications might be (electing majority winners or eliminating spoilers, for example). Unsurprisingly, this study found that respondents were not very satisfied with RCV. However, when the authors added an explanation that RCV has a tendency to elect more women and people of color, they found that this greater explanation increased the preference for RCV. The more voters were familiar with it, and the more they understood potential positive impacts – surprise! -- the more they were open to switching away from the status quo. Of note, the results from this study are thoroughly contradicted by a number of other studies whose data was obtained from real RCV elections with real voters. Those studies show a great deal of satisfaction with RCV. More “fake election” research An interesting wrinkle on this “research by fake elections” approach, which only served to illustrate how unreliable such “research” can become, was taken in Ranked-Choice Voting, Runoff, and Democracy: Insights from Maine and Other U.S. States by Joseph Cerrone and Cynthia McClintock_,_ also web-hosted and funded by New America’s ERRG. It gets high marks for creativity, but an eye-roll for thinking this could possibly add anything meaningful to our understanding of real world RCV elections. This study tried to determine whether RCV, plurality or two-round runoff elections provided greater voter satisfaction and acceptance of election results. To determine that, the authors conducted a survey asking if voters were satisfied with a fictional newspaper report of an election, with three different versions given to respondents – plurality, runoff and RCV, with variations of Republican/Democrat winners and variations of “come-from-behind” winners,” i.e. candidates not initially in first place but who win the “runoff.” Again, a minimal explanation of RCV or how it works was given, and the survey showed that respondents had the greatest unfamiliarity with RCV than the other methods. The unsurprising result? Respondents were much more satisfied with “come-from-behind” victories in a traditional two-round runoff election than in RCV, even though RCV is also a runoff system but with a single round of counting. Interestingly, the dissatisfaction with RCV disappeared for those who were more familiar with RCV. In fact, among those respondents who were “very familiar” with RCV, they were equally satisfied with RCV, runoff and plurality. Surprise, surprise. Again, what this study revealed, more than anything, is not only the inadequacy of the explanation for RCV given by the authors of this study, but the failure of the research format itself, thinking that such an artificial mock election could somehow simulate what actually happens in the real world in a real RCV election. Those four studies reviewed above are fitting examples of inadequate and shaky political “science.” Other studies reviewed in our paper from the New America/Electoral Reform Research Group cohort which also used mock elections included: Ranked-Choice Voting is an Acquired Taste by Joseph Anthony and David C. Kimball. New America. (Anthony et al., 2021). Ranked-Choice Voting is No Refuge for Extreme Candidates by Melissa Baker. New America. (Baker, 2021). Also included in this New America cohort is Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Racial Polarization? by Yuki Atsusaka and Theodore Landsman, which actually did use real-world election results data but applied an odd and unconventional methodology to the data which relied on shaky assumptions and non-real-world scenarios that were too divorced from reality. To determine levels of “racially polarized voting,” the researchers imagined “ethnic parties,” by which they mean political parties for each ethnic group, which was especially odd since the election data they were using came from nonpartisan RCV races. But then they made an even odder assumption, namely that since race and ethnic characteristics of studied voters were not available, the authors tried to infer that information based on who voters selected and the racial make-up of voters in each district. This amounted to little more than vague and ambiguous guesswork dressed up with a bunch of mathematical equations used to give it a veneer of scientific appearance. Indeed, it seemed to assume racial polarization in order to prove racial polarization. Based on this questionable methodology, the authors concluded that RCV doesn’t reduce racial polarization. But the premise of this study missed an obvious reality: since RCV incentivizes more candidates to run and can result in more diverse fields of candidates, one would expect more racially-polarized voting in voters’ top rankings, not less, because more voters would have someone on that ballot who represents their racial or ethnic identity and more freedom to vote for their real first choice. By encouraging more diverse candidates and eliminating the spoiler effect, RCV facilitates voting for a favorite candidate of your own race and then selecting a second choice with the best likelihood of winning. The real measure is what voters do with their additional rankings – do they consider other candidates and vote “for the best of the rest”? This study didn’t tell us anything useful about that. But readily available data shows this is common in real RCV elections, and candidates act on this knowledge by engaging with voters outside their racial group. So the authors of this study failed to consider or account for what actually happens in real-world elections, and their conclusions are tainted by this failure. New America has contributed a great deal over the past 2.5 decades to our understanding of many policy areas, including politics and political reform (full disclosure: Steven Hill, one of the authors of this article and of the “Shaky Political Science” research paper and series, is a former senior fellow and former director of New America’s political reform program, 2005-2010). So it was especially disappointing that New America funded and published such a large batch of dubious studies about ranked choice voting. The stated praiseworthy goal of its Electoral Reform Research Group was to inspire new academic research about ranked choice voting that would shed light and help the public better understand the impacts of RCV. Instead, the ERRG research did just the opposite. It produced dubious research that created more confusion and misinformation. In so doing, New America’s political reform program contributed to “shaky political science.” Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS, a reader-supported digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
Virginia voters to decide on new House map with major midterm implications
Virginia is the latest front in an unprecedented coast-to-coast redistricting war, with voters on Tuesday set to determine whether to accept or reject a Democratic plan to dramatically redraw the state’s congressional maps and help shape the midterm elections.
Virginia voters to decide whether to allow a new Democratic-drawn map for the midterms
A constitutional amendment is on the ballot Tuesday that would pave the way for Democrats to enact a congressional map that’s designed to net them up to four seats.
Poll flags vaccine politics as risk ahead of Special Session
Poll shows strong voter support for existing vaccine requirements statewide.
Former state Controller Betty Yee drops out of the governor's race
Yee, lacking financial resources and voter recognition despite being elected to statewide office twice, dropped out of the 2026 governor's race.
Lancaster Democratic candidates to host public town hall
Democratic legislative candidates Nancy Mannion, James Malone and Chad Gleissl will host a town hall Thursday in Manheim Borough to answer voter questions.
Voting rights are health rights. That's why California must reject the SAVE Act
People of color, naturalized citizens, and low-income voters are less likely to have birth certificates, passports, or other ID that the SAVE Act would require.
Israel’s critics are winning the battle for the Democratic Party
Democratic voters turned against Israel. Now their politicians are following.
Orbán’s Hungary Defeat Shows Disinformation is Not a Political Magic Trick
Counter-disinformation work should be supported continually, not to prevent certain election outcomes but to give voters the chance to make an informed choice.
Pinwheels and the ‘lobster district’: How Virginia Democrats drew up a US House map to all but lock out Republicans
Virginia Democrats hope the new congressional map they’re asking voters to approve Tuesday will flip four Republican House districts, delivering 10 of 11 seats in a state Vice President Kamala Harris won with just 52% of the vote in 2024. To do it, they want to dramatically rework entire sections of the state, slicing up deep blue districts in the Washington, DC, suburbs and around Richmond, and creating a new district running along the Blue Ridge Mountains that connects liberal cities. That’s required something called the “lobster district,” stretching from northern Virginia into two “pincers” grabbing up rural territory.
This Hits Home: News that impacts Seattle-area families
This week: Gas Work Park safety order, library levy goes to voters at $480, early learning losses, child care gains, and RSV news
AI swarms could hijack democracy without anyone noticing
AI-powered personas are becoming so realistic that they can infiltrate online communities and subtly steer public opinion. Unlike traditional bots, they adapt, coordinate, and refine their messaging at a massive scale, creating a false sense of consensus. Early warning signs—like deepfakes and fake news networks—have already appeared in global elections. Researchers warn that the next election could be the true test of this technology’s power.
Muslim Southerners Face a Fresh Wave of Hateful Political Rhetoric
Some Muslim voters were once drawn to Republican positions on family values and individual liberty, but as Southern politicians stoke anti-Islamic sentiment, many feel threatened.
This week in SC politics: Governor candidates itching to debate
GOP leaders have finalized who will make the cut for the upcoming Republican gubernatorial debate — a decision that could shape the race before many voters fully tune in ahead of the June primary.
Beshear urges Democrats to 'talk like a normal human being' to voters
Michigan Democrats gathered Saturday in Detroit to honor outgoing Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Her Kentucky counterpart had a message on voter messaging.
Trump voters say the pope should 'stay in his lane' and butt out of the Iran war
Trump supporters at his events in Las Vegas and Phoenix largely backed his attack on Iran and sided with him in his ongoing dispute with Pope Leo XIV.
Another poll shows Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis staring up at JD Vance in 2028 GOP sweepstakes, each struggling with young voters
Can a Florida man win the White House in 2028?
The Founders Built Safeguards. Our Politics Rendered Them Useless
When every constitutional check stalls, the voters remain the only safeguard the system still relies on
High gas prices become another midterm warning sign for Republicans
In a midterm election that will likely be decided by how voters feel about the economy, Republicans are grappling with how to discuss the war in Iran and its impact on fuel costs.
Why some Virginia voters find redistricting ballot question confusing
When Donte Jiggetts first learned about the special election to determine whether Virginia will move forward with plans for new Congressional districts, he initially found the question confusing.
Federal judge dismisses DOJ lawsuit seeking personal details about Rhode Island voters
U.S. District Court Judge Mary McElroy sided with Rhode Island's top election officials and civil rights advocates, writing that federal law does not permit the U.S. Department of Justice “to conduct the kind of fishing expedition it seeks here.”
What Maine Voters Are Thinking About Ahead of 2026’s Senate Election
Our readers in the state tell us about its high-stakes Senate race.
Jack Schlossberg May in Fact Happen, According to Polls
A new poll showed the Kennedy scion leading the field in the NY-12 race, but a significant number of voters still appeared undecided.
American Politics Is Already Inundated With AI Deepfakes. It’s Only Getting Worse.
These aren’t your 2024 deepfakes. Bad actors will go for broke using state-of-the-art AI tools to blunt voters’ confidence in elections.
JPS breaks ground on new public hospital in Fort Worth
Tarrant County’s new public hospital building is slated to open in 2030. Voters approved funding for the massive expansion project in 2018.
Trump Voters Have Had Enough
A shocking number of the president’s supporters have turned against him.
Gen Z is at the precipice of political power in Wisconsin. Will they use it?
Poll after poll shows that America’s youngest voters have grown increasingly disillusioned with the traditional political system.
New poll shakes up California governor race, debate stage
Editor’s note: This article was updated to correct the breakdown of Republican voters surveyed. Congressman Eric Swalwell’s abrupt departure from the race for California governor has upended the fi…
Wales' party leaders say how they engage young people in politics
Party leaders each face questions from an audience of voters in Llandudno.
Trump administration live updates: N.J. voters head to the polls for special House election
Get live updates and the latest news on the Trump administration as New Jersey voters head to the polls for special election to fill New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill's former House seat and the House votes on protections from deportation for Haitian immigrants.
Iran war has some Republicans worried their chances of keeping the House are slipping away
The White House had long circled Tax Day as the unofficial start to a critical midterm campaign meant to highlight how much money the administration was putting back in voters’ pockets.
'Show me the money'
What happens when a former senator, a prior governor, a previous representative, and a political advocate talk about corporate money in politics? The exact scenario played out at the MSU-hosted discussion titled “Money, Transparent Elections and the Montana Experience,” at the end of last week. Audience members experienced a bipartisan glimpse into corporate influence, how it is built, spent on campaigns and challenged by voters. A candid conversation emerged between guest speakers former Montana U.S. Senator Jon Tester, former Attorney General and Governor Marc Racicot, previous state senator and representative Jeff Mangan, and political advocate Michel Beckel. The conversation between the four guests circled back to Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, a landmark 2010 Supreme Court ruling allowing corporations, unions, and associations to spend unlimited amounts of money influencing elections. The decision concluded independent political spending is a form of free speech protected by the First Amendment, directly leading to the rise of massive political action committees and ‘dark money’ in U.S. elections spending. Tester was the first to address the ‘black elephant’ in the room. Responses to moderator questions are edited for clarity and brevity. “We are seeing unbelievable sums of money being put out trying to influence people on how to vote,” Tester said. “Oftentimes the truth goes out the window before the campaigning even starts.”
Organized Money: How AIPAC Tries to Dominate the Business of Politics
Are American voters changing their minds about the Israel lobby in American politics?
Republicans waited months for Tax Day to showcase economic relief for voters. But will the Iran war overshadow those savings?
In group chats and meetings, Republicans are privately petrified the Iran war could cost them the midterms
Many Republican lawmakers and strategists told NBC News they worry the party has little to run on. “Right now, the voters don’t see a message or a strategy,” a Trump pollster said.
Trump Increased Tax Refunds, but a Political Challenge Still Looms
While last year’s tax law has raised the average I.R.S. refund, the boost is less than the White House expected — and may not have much impact on voters.
Voters ousted 3 politicians in Portland’s most purple county. Now they want comebacks
A record 14 candidates are vying for 3 seats in Clackamas County.
Republicans struggle to highlight Trump’s cuts as Americans see little effect on Tax Day
Republicans had hoped that Trump’s 2025 tax cuts would be at the forefront of voters’ minds, but many have reportedly not noticed a difference
He Has a War Chest and an ‘R’ by His Name. Will Enough Voters Like Him?
Vivek Ramaswamy has all but cleared the field ahead of the May primary for Ohio governor, but whether a finance and pharma billionaire is the man for the moment is another question.
Worried about the midterms, Republicans mobilize rural Virginia voters against redistricting
Republican groups are mounting an intensifying, 11th-hour campaign to mobilize rural voters ahead of Virginia’s April 21 referendum to redraw its US House maps. At stake are as many as four US House seats Democrats want to redraw in their favor for the midterms. To maximize Democratic advantage, the map would put wealthy Washington, DC, suburbs in the same districts as farm communities 90 miles away, including in one misshapen district nicknamed the “lobster claw.”
JD Vance Heckled In Antiwar Protest at Turning Point USA Event
Vice President JD Vance appeared to express sympathy with critics of the war with Iran: “I recognize that young voters do not love the policy we have in the Middle East, OK. I understand.”
Spanberger's 'unconstitutional' push to redefine presidential elections makes voters 'NULL AND VOID': critics
Virginia joins the national popular vote compact as Gov. Spanberger signs bill awarding electoral votes to the national popular vote winner.
Democrats line up to run in Virginia congressional districts, even before voters approve them
Virginia voters are set to decide next week on a Democratic-drawn redistricting plan that could boost the party's chances in the U.S. House | TALK 980am
Young voters shun Trump, plan to vote blue in midterms, poll says
With the midterm primary season underway, a new national poll is measuring how the nation's youngest voters feel about Trump and the November election.
Postal Service union launches ad campaign promoting mail voting as Trump seeks to limit it
The 30-second message features a variety of voters, among them a busy farmer and a flight attendant, explaining why they cast their ballots by mail.
What happens to the California governor's race after Swalwell's exit?
In a crowded race with no clear leader in the heavily Democratic state, Rep. Eric Swalwell's exit presents an opportunity for his one-time rivals to pick off former supporters just weeks before mail ballots go to voters.
Postal Service union launches ad campaign promoting mail voting
The 30-second union ad features voters explaining why they vote by mail and will start airing in Ohio this week
Apopka voters to decide on next Mayor in Tuesday Runoff
The runoff will be decided tonight.
Dallas ISD voters to decide largest school bond in state history
On May 2nd, voters living in Dallas ISD will decide whether to pay $33 more a year in property taxes to pay for a $6.2 billion bond package. The plan would build 26 new schools and make major upgrades to facilities and technology at every campus. Lone Star Politics speaks with Miguel Solis, former President of DISD Board of Trustees and now the President of the Commit Partnership.
How Commissioner Joe Neunder became a symbol of everything voters distrust in SWFL
Sarasota land deal raises ethics questions and fuels voter distrust
Poll: Democrats gaining ground, key races tighten in Florida as Donald Trump drags GOP
Independent voters are breaking sharply toward Democrats, a shift pollsters say could reshape Florida’s political map after years of Republican dominance.
Swalwell’s Fall Punctuates Woes of Democrats in California, of All Places
Democrats have struggled to find a candidate for governor who can capture the imagination of voters in one of their most important strongholds.
Bob Buckhorn becomes 10th candidate to enter Mayor’s race, will reach ‘every voter’
Buckhorn enters the race as the immediate frontrunner.
Sam Wang, Politician-in-Training
The neuroscientist went from analyzing elections to running for Congress. But can this rookie win over New Jersey locals—and Trump voters?
As Iran war drags on, midterm forecasts for Republicans get even worse
The GOP was already bracing for a tough election, but with the ceasefire in doubt, gas prices are likely to stay high, and voters’ economic outlook is dismal.
DHS investigating claim about Swalwell nanny filed by conspiracy theorist
Joel Gilbert, who mailed anti-Barack Obama film to voters in 2012, accuses congressman of violating immigration law
SIR in West Bengal: How exclusion of nine million voters could shape state politics
Nine million voters have been dropped from rolls in West Bengal, raising concerns over exclusion and fairness.
AIPAC may be a new litmus test for Democratic candidates. Leaders say voters' heads are elsewhere.
Last week's Democratic National Committee meeting illustrated a party trying to stay focused on economic issues while grappling with strong, changing opinions on Israel.
California Republicans caught between Trump loyalty and winning swing districts
California Republicans embrace Trump at their convention while candidates in competitive races keep him at arm's length to win over voters.
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“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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