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Mississippi Power Foundation partners with the Mississippi Arts + Entertainment Experience for America250
Mississippi Power and The MAX team up for an America250 Summer Celebration
'American Horror Story' reveals 'Love Story' heartthrob's blond transformation
'American Horror Story' reveals 'Love Story' heartthrob Paul Anthony Kelly's blond transformation for season 13.
Taylor Sheridan makes rare comment on Kevin Costner's departure from 'Yellowstone'
Taylor Sheridan is speaking out about Kevin Costner's departure from 'Yellowstone' in season 5, revealing that the actor had been 'ready to go.'
Lionel Richie's ex-wife shares update on singer's condition after hospitalization
Lionel Richie's ex-wife, Brenda Harvey Richie, shared news on her former husband's health after a medical incident led to a concert stoppage and hospitalization.
The Sims 4 Update: Official Patch Notes (June 30th, 2026)
Maxis and EA have just released a brand new The Sims 4 Update across all officially supported platforms. Including PC, Mac, Xbox and Playstation platforms.
'Supergirl' is a decent standalone movie — so why is everyone acting like it’s awful?
'Supergirl' has been in theaters for less than a week, and it seems everyone is quick to call it a failure after a disappointing opening weekend at the box office. But does it actually deserve the backlash it's receiving?
9 former child stars who found success outside Hollywood
These former child stars found impressive careers outside the spotlight. See which of your favorites became lawyers, teachers, veterinarians, CEOs, and more.
Blake Lively is seeking $8.04 million in legal fees from Justin Baldoni amid 'It Ends With Us' settlement
Blake Lively is asking a judge to award her over $8 million in attorneys' fees and litigation costs for having defended herself against Justin Baldoni's now-dismissed defamation lawsuit.
PAHO expands health response as Venezuela faces mounting health risks after devastating earthquakes
Caracas, Venezuela/Washington, D.C., 30 June 2026 (PAHO) – The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) is expanding its support to Venezuela's Ministry of Health following the two powerful earthquakes that struck the country on 24 June, deploying technical experts, coordinating international Emergency Medical Teams (EMTs), assessing damaged health facilities, and mobilizing emergency medical supplies to support lifesaving care and reduce the risk of disease outbreaks.
Alan Ritchson's 'Reacher' sets season 4 premiere date a month ahead of 'Neagley' spinoff debut
'Reacher's series is returning for its fourth season this summer, just in time to usher in the premiere of its Maria Sten-led spinoff series.
'Lilo & Stitch' star Daveigh Chase's father reacts to daughter's death from AIDS at 35
'Lilo & Stitch' and 'The Ring' actress Daveigh Chase's father offered a heartbreaking reaction to his daughter's death after the medical examiner's office ruled her cause of death to be AIDS.
Ariana Grande forced to reschedule shows on her 'Eternal Sunshine' tour
Ariana Grande has rescheduled several shows on her tour. Here's what the pop star had to say about it.
Elliot Page shows off insane abs in shirtless boxing photos and video
'The Odyssey' star Elliot Page says he's 'hooked' on boxing and shows off his ripped abs.
Morgan Fairchild 'knew what it was' when Rock Hudson got sick with AIDS: 'Everybody in Hollywood knew Rock was gay'
Morgan Fairchild looks back on the death of actor Rock Hudson and reveals she 'knew what it was' when he got sick with AIDS in 1984: 'Everybody in Hollywood knew Rock was gay.'
Stephen Amell is now 'best friends' with soccer star Neymar after replying to years-old DM on live TV
Stephen Amell tells EW about the nail-biting moment James Corden took control of his phone on a live Fox Sports broadcast to respond to a years-old DM from Brazilian soccer star Neymar, with whom he's now 'best friends.'
'Yellowstone' creator Taylor Sheridan slams Marvel movies and studio execs: 'It didn't used to be this way'
'Yellowstone' creator Taylor Sheridan had harsh criticism for Marvel movies, saying the superhero films use 'information dumps that you have to follow to get to the action rather than actually moving plot.'
Apple Is Moving The iPhone 18 Pro’s IR Flooder To The Side, As A CT Scan Exposes A Huge Vapor Chamber Stretching To The Top, And A Smaller Dynamic Island
Apple has moved iPhone 18 Pro's infrared flooder to the side, while housing the front camera and the Face ID scanner within a smaller cutout.
Cara Delevingne confirms she and Amber Heard were romantically involved amid actress' Johnny Depp divorce
Model-actress Cara Delevingne confirms she and 'London Fields' costar Amber Heard were romantically involved amid actress' divorce from Johnny Depp.
Henry Winkler says 'there's a string between' him and his 'Happy Days' costar Ron Howard
Winkler and Howard costarred on the '70s sitcom, and they've remained close in the decades since.
Yankees Announce Updates on Giancarlo Stanton, Max Fried
Two of the Yankees' injured stars will be working together in their return to the field.
Scott Eastwood recalls entitled costar who exited movie mid-production: 'Don't be a piece of s---'
Scott Eastwood recently looked back on working with an entitled costar who abruptly left a movie while production was underway.
Jussie Smollett reacts to 50 Cent mocking his Pride performance (exclusive)
Jussie Smollett has reacted to 50 Cent slamming his Pride performance in Harlem, with the 'Empire' actor providing EW with an exclusive statement: 'We hope he had a happy Pride.'
DC boss reacts to 'Supergirl' global box office flop
DC Studios boss reacted to 'Supergirl' box office disappointment after a $38 million domestic opening for the superhero movie starring Milly Alcock.
This Gainesville restaurant failed its health inspection with a 68. Here’s why
A Gainesville nuevo latino restaurant received a failing grade on its health inspection.
Nancy Guthrie demand letter’s authenticity questioned by sheriff
Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos weighs in on a new demand letter in the Nancy Guthrie case, which claims to know who kidnapped the mother of 'Today' host Savannah Guthrie.
'The Ring' actress Daveigh Chase's cause of death revealed
The cause of her death for 'Lilo & Stitch' star Daveigh Chase has been revealed.
Why did Scott Patterson leave 'Sullivan's Crossing'? Inside the conflicting stories of his exit
When Harry Sullivan left the Crossing at the end of season 3, he promised to return, but Scott Patterson remains absent in 'Sullivan's Crossing' season 4. Here's what we know.
Jodie Turner-Smith offers rare comments about co-parenting with ex Joshua Jackson
Jodie Turner-Smith says she and ex-husband Joshua Jackson are 'learning' and 'not alway getting it totally right' when it comes to co-parenting their daughter together.
Lizzo slams 'Khia Asylum' meme for 'flopping' pop stars: 'Weapon that targets only women'
Lizzo slammed the 'Khia Asylum' meme often use for 'flopping' pop stars: 'A tool to bully artists,' she said, calling the title itself 'backhanded' for mocking a 'pillar in the Black community.'
Kevin Pollak says Jack Nicholson would mess with Tom Cruise on 'A Few Good Men'
'A Few Good Men' star Kevin Pollak says that Jack Nicholson would often play around and mess with Tom Cruise while they were shooting the Rob Reiner-directed courtroom drama.
Leaker outlines iPhone lineup for next year, with six new models coming
Apple is rumored to have more new iPhones launching in 2027 than ever before, here’s every model coming per leaker Digital Chat Station.
50 Cent mocks Jussie Smollett's return to stage at Pride vent
50 Cent mocks 'Empire' actor Jussie Smollett's return to the stage at a Pride event years after an alleged hate crime hoax led to controversy for the star.
Hayao Miyazaki voice actor Akihiro Miwa dies at 91
Akihiro Miwa has died at age 91. The Hayao Miyazaki voice actor, who played roles in 'Princess Mononoke' and 'Howl's Moving Castle,' was also an iconic singer in Japan.
Apple accuses India of 'copy-pasting' rivals' claims in antitrust investigation
Apple has accused Indian antitrust investigators of "copy-pasting" its rivals' claims and failing to properly conduct its own investigation in concluding the U.S. tech giant breached competition laws, calling for the findings to be quashed, regulatory papers reviewed by Reuters showed.
Elon Musk shares Armie Hammer comeback film banned in Germany for violent anti-immigrant imagery
Elon Musk shared a link to stream Uwe Boll's 'Citizen Vigilante' in its entirety. The Armie Hammer comeback vehicle was effectively banned from distribution in Germany due to violent anti-immigrant imagery.
Jesse Eisenberg opens up about turning down Aaron Sorkin's offer to return for 'Social Network' sequel
Jesse Eisenberg says passing on Aaron Sorkin's offer for him to return as Mark Zuckerberg in 'The Social Network' sequel felt like 'letting down America.'
Jodie Sweetin praises 'Better Call Saul' actor first cast as 'Full House' dad, but Bob Saget was No. 1 choice
Bob Saget nearly missed the chance to play Danny Tanner on 'Full House,' and though he was casting's 'first choice,' Jodie Sweetin says this 'Better Call Saul' star was 'very sweet' in the original pilot.
New Mexico Sports Hall of Fame 2025 inductees honored at banquet
Anita Maxwell, John Fields, and Miles Watters -- 3 of the 5 members of the class of 2025 -- were at the celebration.
Wife and 2 children of Argentine soccer star discovered dead after earthquakes in Venezuela
Argentine soccer star Lucas Trejo lost his wife, Yanina Maranella, and their two children, Aarón and Ainhoa, in the powerful pair of earthquakes that ravaged Venezuela on June 24.
Noah Kahan begs fans to stop pooping in their pants during his concerts: 'Dear god just go to the bathroom'
Noah Kahan has a friendly reminder for all concertgoers: Bathrooms do exist and pooping in your pants is, uh, pretty unacceptable.
Katy Perry cancels music festival performance at the last minute: 'They gave me no choice'
Katy Perry apologizes after her Werchter Boutique performance was canceled at the last minute, tells fans 'I am just as unhappy as you are.'
Hollywood celebrates Mel Brooks' 100th birthday
Mel Brooks' 100th birthday is being celebrated by friends, fans, and the whole of Hollywood.
Harry Styles chokes on water, collapses on stage at London concert amid U.K. heat wave
Harry Styles caused some serious fan concern after lying down on stage at the end of his Friday night Wembley Stadium set.
Why did this journal retract two 1940s papers by Max Planck?
Clicking on the links now reveals blank pages and empty PDFs. "Intellectually, it’s not acceptable.”...
Bond girl Eva Green is 'recovering' after suffering an injury on 'Wednesday' set
Former Bond girl Eva Green is recovering after suffering an injury on the set of 'Wednesday' season 3, which will see her portray Aunt Ophelia Frump.
Austrian GP: George Russell holds off Max Verstappen to end winless streak and reinvigorate title bid
Apple working on M7 Ultra Mac Studio for 2028 with potential major upgrade: report
Later this year, Apple will be debuting an updated version of the Mac Studio with M5 Max and M5 Ultra...
Mel Brooks turns 100: His 5 essential movies
As Mel Brooks turns 100 today, here are the 5 must-watch comedies from his hilarious canon of work.
Important Penn State prospect makes notable physical transformation
Penn State star Max Granville’s career has been stunted by injuries so far, but his body transformation is sure to excite fans.
6 Ways Your Body Can Change After Starting a High-Protein Diet
Adding more protein to your diet can cause several changes in your body, such as better muscle repair and potential digestive issues.
Pokémon GO Events This Week: June 29
Pokémon GO’s June 29 – July 5 week sees us enter the second month of the season of Forever Forward! We end June and kick off July with 10th Anniversary celebrations and Sobble Community Day! Plus the weekly rotating Raid Hours, Spotlight Hour, Dynamax Battles and Mega Raids. ⭐Highlights Raid Boss Change (July 1): Articuno, Zapdos, Moltres and […]
Kentville man collects ticks for science
Glen Parsons collecting ticks behind his home in 2019. First it was for search, but now it's for public awareness.
Could 'humanmaxxing' actually help you live longer? Here's what experts say
Humanmaxxing is the latest wellness trend focused on maximizing human potential through biohacking, longevity science and advanced medical treatments.
Could 'humanmaxxing' actually help you live longer? Here's what experts say
Humanmaxxing is the latest wellness trend focused on maximizing human potential through biohacking, longevity science and advanced medical treatments.
Gracie Abrams understands nepotism discourse about her, admits Hollywood parents provided 'a safety net': 'I get it'
Gracie Abrams understands why she's frequently brought up in conversations about nepotism, and said that her parents' success in Hollywood provided 'a safety net': 'I get it.'
Courteney Cox and Snow Patrol's Johnny McDaid separate after over 10 years together
Courteney Cox and Snow Patrol's Johnny McDaid separate after over 10 years together.
Jalen Brunson gets a standing ovation at Mariska Hargitay's play after announcing his 'SVU' dream
Jalen Brunson received a standing ovation at Mariska Hargitay's Broadway play 'Every Brilliant Thing.' The New York Knicks star previously stated his desire to guest star on 'Law & Order: SVU.'
Tony Goldwyn recalls Hollywood 'people that were mean' changing their attitude toward him after this hit film
Tony Goldwyn said that Hollywood colleagues treated him as if he 'had the plague' when he was an unemployed actor, and those same 'mean' people changed their tune after this hit movie.
Madonna makes rare reveal of 1 major pop diva she was 'jealous' of
Madonna recently revealed why she was 'jealous' of Kylie Minogue, even though she wore a T-shirt bearing the 'Can't Get You Out of My Head' singer's name to the MTV Music Awards in 2000.
'Drag Race' star reveals queen dropped out of 'All Stars 11'
Jasmine Kennedie revealed to EW that 'Drag Race' queen Utica dropped out of 'All Stars 11' before filming began — and Utica responds in an exclusive statement to EW.
Austrian GP: George Russell takes controversial pole as Max Verstappen crashes in dramatic qualifying
The #1 Snack for Better Gut Health, Recommended by a Gastroenterologist
Looking to improve your gut health? Read on to discover the best gastroenterologist-recommended plant-based snack to add to your day.
4 Foods and Drinks With More Calcium Than Yogurt
Yogurt is a calcium-rich food. However, other foods and drinks, such as tofu and kefir, contain even higher amounts of calcium.
Maia Reficco finds love in Mallorca in the first look at Anna Todd's 'The Last Sunrise' (exclusive)
EW has the exclusive first look at Prime Video's 'The Last Sunrise,' director Carlson Young's adaptation of the coming-of-age novel.
The Most Expensive AC Setting to Use During a Heat Wave, Experts Say
Trying to stay cool during a heat wave? Experts reveal the AC setting that can drive up energy costs the most—and what to use instead to save money.
Nia Long explains why she turned down Prince's advances
Nia Long explained why she once shut down Prince's advances when she was young, and said that she later met the musician again when she'd gained more notoriety in Hollywood.
Author Meg Cabot says she's read the 'Princess Diaries 3' script 'and it was amazing'
Meg Cabot, author of the 'Princess Diaries' book series, says she's read the script for 'The Princess Diaries 3' starring Anne Hathaway and it's 'amazing.'
George Clooney's wife Amal admits life was 'easier' before marrying the Oscar winner
George Clooney's wife Amal says life with the 'Ocean's 11' star is not always easy.
Tom Hardy is dropping a rap album amid his uncertain future on 'MobLand'
As Tom Hardy navigates rumors of his 'MobLand' exit, he's stepped into the studio to release his first rap album.
Ed Norton looks back on the surprising reaction to one of his now-iconic movies
Edward Norton is reflecting on the surprising reaction to 'Fight Club,' which overcame a rocky start to become an iconic film.
Apple to skip the M6 Pro and Max chips and focus on boosting AI for the M7 generation
The M7 series of Apple silicon will be AI-focused. According to a report from Mark Gurman, Apple is planning a shift in its chip release strategy. The...
iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max May See $200 Price Increase
Apple's iPhone 18 Pro models could be up to $200 more expensive, according to a prediction from analytics firm IDC. IDC expected Apple to raise iPhone 18 prices, but prior to yesterday's Mac and iPad price hike, the prediction was a $100 increase for the 18 Pro and Pro Max, and a $50 increase for the base models. IDC Senior Director of Data & Analytics Nabila Popal says the magnitude of the Mac and iPad price increase points to even higher iPhone 18 prices.
Art Garfunkel shares secret to lasting 38-year marriage: 'I can't live without my wife being in accord'
'Bridge Over Troubled Water' singer Art Garfunkel shares secret to his lasting 38-year marriage with wife Kathryn 'Kim' Luce: 'I can't live without my wife being in accord.'
How this A-lister ended up in 'Supergirl'
Yes, that 'Supergirl' cameo is who you think it is. Director Craig Gillespie and star Milly Alcock talk about how it came together.
Mia Sara reflects on working with ‘weird guy’ Tom Cruise in 'Legend'
Mia Sara recalls working with Tom Cruise in the Ridley Scott film 'Legend,' saying the actor was 'very insecure.'
New Nancy Guthrie demand letter claims to have video from her 'last' day: Report
A new demand letter about Nancy Guthrie reportedly claims to have video of the 84-year-old and her kidnapper on 'the day that was probably her last.'
Kylie Jenner's former chef alleges 'intense' workload led to miscarriage
Kylie Jenner has been hit with a third workplace lawsuit as her former chef claims the job's "intense" demands led to a pregnancy loss.
Kristen Stewart and Alia Shawkat are 'The Wrong Girls' in first look at new stoner comedy (exclusive)
EW has your exclusive first look at the stoner comedy 'The Wrong Girls' from writer-director Dylan Meyer, starring Kristen Stewart, Alia Shawkat, LaKeith Stanfield, Seth Rogen, and Kate McKinnon.
Iran's Pride Match is about visibility, not politics
Iran’s World Cup match against Egypt has become a test not only of FIFA’s approach to inclusion but also of whether LGBTQ+ Iranians can claim visibility on one of the world’s biggest sporting stages.
Small Business Central to American Prosperity Celebration
House Small Business Committee celebrates small businesses as key to American prosperity ahead of nation's 250th anniversary. Learn why Main Street matters.
Apple's OLED 'MacBook Ultra' Will Stick With M5 Pro and M5 Max Chips
Apple's upcoming high-end MacBook model featuring an OLED touchscreen display will use the company's current M5 Pro and M5 Max chips, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. The new, top-of-the-line device will launch "between late this year and early next year," Gurman said, adopting the existing high-end Apple silicon chips rather than next-generation M6 versions.
Bunnie Xo says she told ‘so many girls’ to DM Jelly Roll amid divorce: 'Good luck with that'
Bunnie Xo said that she told 'so many girls' to DM Jelly Roll amid their divorce. The country star filed for divorce from the podcaster in May after nearly 10 years of marriage.
Apple’s Touch MacBook to Use M5 Pro and Max Chips, With M7 Models to Follow
Apple Inc.’s first-ever touch-screen laptop will rely on the company’s current high-end M5 chips, rather than next-generation silicon, though the company is working on a follow-up model with future M7 processors.
Andy Cohen cries as he mourns 28-year-old 'WWHL' producer who died of brain cancer
Andy Cohen became emotional mourning 'Watch What Happens Live' production manager Kyra Samson, 28, who died of brain cancer earlier this week.
Lionel Richie is 'heartbroken' to postpones concerts after reported hospitalization
Lionel Richie is postponing two shows after cutting his St. Paul, Minn., concert short and a reported hospitalization.
What Happens to Your Liver When You Drink Green Tea Every Day
What does green tea do for your liver? Learn how it may affect fat buildup, inflammation, and liver enzymes, plus risks and benefits.
Strength Training Could Be One of the Best Things You Do for Your Brain
A growing body of research suggests strength training can help preserve cognition and improve brain health as you age. Experts explain the best way to work strength training into your routine.
Apple to Skip M6 Pro and M6 Max, Jumps to M7 Series
Apple has reportedly canceled its M6 Pro and M6 Max processors, according to a recent note from Bloomberg's Apple insider Mark Gurman. Behind the scenes, there is a significant shift in Apple's silicon rollout strategy. The company is postponing the launch of its higher-end M6 SoC variants, like the...
Ann Blyth, Oscar-nominated 'Mildred Pierce' actress, dies at 98
Ann Blyth, Golden Age Hollywood star and Oscar-nominated 'Mildred Pierce' actress, has died at 98.
Why Michelle Pfeiffer left her 'Grease 2' audition feeling 'so humiliated'
On the anniversary of 'Grease 2,' take a look back at what Michelle Pfeiffer said about her audition. It was humiliating.
Salpointe flag football QB named MaxPreps Freshman of the Year
It is the first year that MaxPreps is putting together an All-American team as the sport continues to gain popularity.
M6 MacBook Pro Expected This Year With Apple's First 2nm Chip
Apple could launch an updated base model 14-inch MacBook Pro with an M6 chip as soon as this year, reports Bloomberg. There could also be M6 chip updates for the Mac mini, iMac, and MacBook Air, but Apple is testing an M6 MacBook Pro. Apple plans to introduce the M6 in late 2026, and for the first time, it will be a standalone chip. Apple is not working on M6 Pro or M6 Max chips, and will hold off on higher-end chip options until the M7 series launches in 2027.
'Vampire Diaries' stars Nina Dobrev and Paul Wesley reuniting for Hulu series 'You Deserve to Know'
'Vampire Diaries' stars Nina Dobrev and Paul Wesley are re-teaming for the upcoming Hulu series 'You Deserve to Know,' adapted from the book of the same name.
Dolly Parton makes surprise appearance — complete with a joke
Dolly Parton just made a surprise appearance, complete with her trademark humor, amid health issues.
M5 Ultra Mac Studio Could Launch in 2026 With Up to 768GB of RAM
Despite price increases across the Mac line, Apple is still planning to release a new Mac Studio as soon as this year, reports Bloomberg. Apple plans to introduce a new M5 Ultra chip as the final option in the M5 family before it transitions to the M6, M7, M7 Pro, and M7 Max. The M5 Ultra will come in a new version of the Mac Studio, which hasn't been updated since March 2025.
PAHO mobilizes emergency health response following earthquakes in Venezuela
Caracas, Venezuela/Washington, D.C., 25 June 2026 (PAHO) – The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) has activated its emergency response mechanisms to support the health response in Venezuela following two magnitude 7.5 earthquakes that struck the country on June 24.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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