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Huge and Highly Praised Crimson Desert PS5 Patch Out Now, Difficulty Options and Better Visuals Included
The game's biggest update yet
Crimson Desert Gets Its Biggest Patch Yet, Adds Difficulty Settings, Much-Needed Storage Improvements, and Even Birds as Pets
Crimson Desert developer Pearl Abyss has released update 1.04.00, which makes significant improvements to the game. Chief among them is the addition of difficulty settings, new storage improvements, new pets, keyboard/mouse and controller preset options, new category tabs for the inventory, new skills, improvements to distant scenery quality, and a lot more.
Ace tanks spearhead vehicular carnage with new Armoured Gauntlet rules
Fight big armoured battles with the new Armageddon: The Return of Yarrick expansion.
AI-driven sports technology from Carnegie Mellon students draws interest from Mark Cuban
More than 68 million Americans play a racquet sport, but improving their skills can be difficult. Costs for lessons are becoming increasingly expensive, and feedback for technique isn’t always individualized. But three Carnegie Mellon University students think they have an answer. They launched a company called ServeSense. Pitching their technology
Rep. David Scott, a Georgia Democrat seeking 13th term in Congress, dies at 80
Scott, the first Black chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, was once a leading voice for his party on issues related to farm aid policy and food aid for consumers.
Georgia Rep. David Scott dies at 80
Scott, the first Black chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, was first elected to Congress in 2002 and was running for re-election.
People tell us how much they spent on Coachella 2026
From ICU nurses to broke college students and a lady who won VIP passes for life, people tell us how they managed to afford their Coachella trips this year.
CBL Scholars Program Opens Pathways to Business Law Careers - UC Law San Francisco (Formerly UC Hastings)
First-year law students and 2026 CBL Scholars Deniz Masjedi, Alvaro Flores, and Tavia Pappaly gain mentorship connections with leading industry professionals as they prepare for careers in business law. Created by the UC Center for Business Law San Francisco (CBL), the CBL Scholars Program aims to develop the next generation of business law leaders, supported by contributions from individuals and corporate sponsors. The highly competitive program provides funding along with academic and professional mentorship to students from disadvantaged backgrounds. Scholars gain exposure to the Bay Area’s technology and venture capital ecosystems and access to UC Law SF’s broad network of senior legal professionals. Now in its sixth year, the CBL Scholars Program provides a scholarship and academic and professional mentorship to students entering the business law community from disadvantaged educational, economic, social, or physical backgrounds. The program is generously sponsored by the law firms Gunderson Dettmer and Goodwin Procter. Meet this year’s CBL Scholars: Deniz Masjedi, Alvaro Flores, and Tavia Pappaly. All three have secured summer associate positions at prestigious law firms. Deniz Masjedi: A Passion for Helping Founders Grow Companies Deniz Masjedi, who was born in Iran and moved to Southern California as a teenager, traces her interest in law to her family’s immigration journey and her desire to advocate for herself and her family. She earned a bachelor’s degree at UC Berkeley, where she studied political science and sociology. At UC Law SF, she serves as a 1L representative for the Iranian Law Students Association and is active in the Business Law Society and Technology & Law Society. Next fall, she will serve as director of mentorship for the Technology & Law Society and director of professional development for the Business Law Society. She will join Sidley Austin this year as a 1L/2L summer associate. Q: What draws you to business law? A: Prior to law school, I worked in Cooley LLP’s Private Companies practice group as a corporate paralegal for three years, supporting over 100 venture-backed startups and venture capital funds. I found purpose in helping founders transform their vision into successful companies. It was incredibly rewarding being part of their journeys—from company formation and initial financing to major transactions such as M&A deals. What excites me most about this field is the potential for a small, innovative company to become the next Google or Zoom, shaping how people communicate and access information. I hope to continue supporting entrepreneurs and investors as a corporate attorney. Q: What does it mean to you to have been awarded this scholarship? A: As the first person in my family to attend law school in the United States, receiving this scholarship is a tremendous honor. My parents and I left everything behind so that I could enjoy the freedom to practice my religion without persecution and pursue a career in law as a woman. This award is an acknowledgment of my dedication to business law and motivates me to continue pursuing excellence in this field. It also recognizes years of hard work—learning a new language, navigating the college and law school application process, and ultimately building a career in the legal profession. Q: How will this scholarship help support your future goals? A: This scholarship will provide access to mentorship from leaders in the field, enabling me to develop the skills necessary to offer practical advice and effective representation to future clients. It also eases the financial burden of law school, letting me focus on my coursework and deepen my commitment to corporate law. As an immigrant, breaking into the legal profession has not always been easy, and the time that mentors have invested in me has been instrumental to my progress. This scholarship will allow me to continue building those relationships while positioning me to one day mentor others pursuing similar paths. Alvaro Flores: Inspired by Entrepreneurs The son of Mexican immigrants raised in San Antonio, Texas, Alvaro Flores says he has long been interested in how policy, markets, and culture shape society. He studied international relations and global economy at the University of Southern California, with minors in business finance and legal studies. His experiences span local political organizing, venture capital and startup work, and teaching entrepreneurship. At UC Law SF, he is involved in the Business Law Society, Technology & Law Society, and the Latinx Law Student Association. He will join Perkins Coie as a 1L/2L summer associate with the firm’s Emerging Companies & Venture Capital practice. Q: What draws you to business law? A: I’m drawn to stories of entrepreneurs whose simple ideas become companies that shape the economy and society. Spending time in venture capital and working directly with founders has shown me that many important decisions in the scaling process are ultimately legal ones, particularly how companies are structured and how capital is raised. Business law sits at the intersection of innovation and equity. It offers a way to stay close to the pace of technological change while also helping expand who gets to participate in it. There is something special about being part of that process here in the Bay Area, where the American Dream feels like it is reimagined in real time. Q: What does it mean to you to have been awarded this scholarship? A: I am truly grateful for the support and belief this scholarship represents. I see it not just as recognition, but also as alignment. The CBL Scholars Program’s focus on developing individuals who engage deeply with the business and technology ecosystem reflects the path I have been intentionally building. More than anything, it feels like an investment in that journey. I have been thoughtful about each next step–whether teaching, working in venture capital, or building multidisciplinary experiences–and this scholarship reinforces that those efforts come together in a meaningful way. Q: How will this scholarship help support your future goals? A: It allows me to focus more on developing as a business lawyer, without the distraction of financial constraints. Beyond that, the mentorship and access to the Bay Area network are just as valuable. I’m especially interested in working with early-stage companies and investors, so the opportunity to learn directly from people operating at a high level in that space is huge. Tavia Pappaly: Working in the Wine Industry Sparked Interest in Business and Law Tavia Pappaly spent five years in the wine industry before deciding to pursue law school with a goal of becoming a corporate transactions attorney. Pappaly says she wants to use her legal skills to help business grow and thrive. A first-generation law student from Fairfield, California, she is a member of the Legal Education Opportunity Program (LEOP) and will serve as vice president of social planning for the UC Law SF Sports Law Society in her 2L year. She plans to work as a summer associate at Gibson Dunn in San Francisco after her 2L year. Q: What draws you to business law? A: Business law brings together many of my interests and personal experiences. As the daughter of immigrants who grew up around a family-owned small business, I saw firsthand both the opportunities and challenges of building something from the ground up. That perspective, combined with my experience in the wine industry, solidified my interest in helping businesses of all sizes tackle evolving legal challenges. I’m excited to grow within the corporate law space and develop the skills and experience to support businesses at every stage. I’m deeply motivated to give back to immigrant communities and small business owners, whose experiences often intersect. By building a strong foundation in corporate law, I hope to support those working to create generational stability and to contribute in a meaningful way to the communities that have shaped me. Q: What does it mean to you to have been awarded this scholarship? A: Receiving this scholarship is incredibly meaningful to me. I take great pride in my background as a first-generation student and a woman of color, so being recognized for my potential in a field that has historically underrepresented those communities is both affirming and empowering. This program will help connect me to the resources and committed mentors that will help me succeed. Beyond that, it is no secret that law school is a significant financial commitment. This scholarship helps ease both the financial burden and the stress that comes with it, allowing me to focus more on my education and long-term goals. I am incredibly grateful! Q: How will this scholarship help support your future goals? A: This scholarship has already connected me with an incredible network of faculty, business law professionals, and like-minded students. The community fostered by the Center for Business Law is deeply supportive, and I’m excited to grow alongside my cohort. I truly believe this network will play an important role in helping me thrive in law school and position me for success in business law. As I have seen firsthand how impactful both financial scholarship and mentorship are, I hope to give back in this same way later in my career.
The Expanse: Osiris Reborn plays like a Mass Effect-like sci-fi adventure in fine form, but its developer's use of AI raises some difficult questions
The signs are all good. Except there's that nagging question. How much does it matter that the studio is using gen-AI tools during the game's development?
Philip Morris Sales Rise on Smoke-Free Business Growth
Philip Morris International logged higher revenue in the first quarter, with particularly strong growth in its smoke-free business.
Romanian President Holds Talks to Save Government From Collapse
Romanian President Nicusor Dan is holding talks with coalition parties to salvage the country’s teetering pro-European government, with the nation’s investment grade and billions of euros in European Union funding potentially hinging on the outcome.
Fermat's Last Theorem: still a must-read about a 350-year maths secret
Simon Singh's exploration of mathematical proof – in particular Pierre de Fermat's last theorem – remains an absolute treasure, almost three decades after it was first published
Bullying, Politics Harm Mental Health Of Gender-Diverse Teens
By Dennis Thompson HealthDay ReporterWEDNESDAY, April 22, 2026 (HealthDay News) — Gender-diverse teenagers who are bullied are more likely to suffer escalating psychological distress than other teens, particularly if they live in a state with repressive gender identity laws, a new study says. These ...
Colorado’s creative economy needs a business structure that actually fits
By Marc Catlin Across Colorado, people are building something from the ground up.I’ve seen it my whole life. I grew up on a farm in Montrose County, and I’ve spent my career working in agriculture, water, banking, and small business. No matter the industry, the basics are the same. If you want something to last, […]
Jonesboro to consider forming sports advisory committee
Jonesboro City Council is considering adding a youth sports advisory committee to coordinate the city’s youth sports programming and sports tourism.
Orlando adopts small business contract program
Small and local businesses in Orlando will get an advantage when bidding on city contracts under policy approved Monday. The initiative follows a similar Orange County program.
Patriots' Mike Vrabel says he's met with team, had 'some difficult conversations' after photos with Dianna Russini emerged
Vrabel broke his silence on the matter Tuesday.
Seven Key Moments: Hearing with HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
WASHINGTON, D.C. – Ways and Means Committee Republicans emphasized the importance of expanding access to health care for Americans – particularly...
The social sciences need tools for the 21st century
Letters: Readers respond to an editorial on difficulties with replicability of results in social science research
EPA announces selection of members to the Science Advisory Board
U.S. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin on April17 announced the selection of new members to the Science Advisory Board, which consists of a chair and 36 members. Three of the selected members will also serve on the SAB Agricultural Sciences Committee.
Morocco debates electoral reform as key to restoring trust in politics |
Participants stressed that political participation, particularly among women and young people, remains a decisive factor in any successful democratic reform.
The surprising origin of 4 features that superglue kids — and adults
Taken together, these four features can create a trancelike state that can keep us stuck on social media apps or video games for hours. Children are particularly vulnerable.
Dunlap students learn agriculture and business skills on school farm
Students in Dunlap are getting hands-on experience in agriculture while learning how to turn their work into a business through a school farm program.
Horticulture specialist finds popular DIY 'lawn tonic' not backed by science
Bill Maher, Woody Harrelson lament its 'not easy' to make a business work in California
Bill Maher and Woody Harrelson sounded off on California during "Club Random" on Monday, lamenting the difficulties of running a business in the liberal state.
Op-ed: Healthy rural communities strengthen all of Indiana
Rural hospitals and clinics report thin operating margins and say worker shortages and rising costs make it difficult to sustain services such as primary and maternity care.
UP-based basketball flooring provider expands service within WNBA
Connor Sports’ established presence in women’s professional basketball includes work with the Las Vegas Aces, Atlanta Dream, Connecticut Sun and Dallas Wings.
CT Business Blend: April 20, 2026
Hartford Business Journal’s Greg Bordonaro and WTIC’s Brian Shactman explore the people, companies and trends shaping Connecticut’s business scene every Monday at 8:30 a.m. on WTIC 1080 AM.
2CV Progress Update: Holy Crap, It's All Together (Ish)
I love it when a plan comes together. Or a car. Or, for that matter, even a sandwich. I guess I like when anything comes together. But, I’m particularly fond of when my Citroën 2CV comes together, and it looks like that finally is happening. As you may recall, this is the 2CV that our […]
Essentia Health registered nurse logs over 900 volunteer hours
On most evenings, after a full day as a registered nurse in the ICU at the Essentia Health-Fargo, Darian Slama's second shift begins caring for her four-legged patients.
Minor League Recap: Tugboat leads Akron to combined no-hitter
Columbus Clippers 12, Iowa Cubs 8 Clippers improve to 11-10 It was a home run derby in Columbus on Sunday, led by none other than the scorching hot Cooper Ingle, who went 3-for-4 with two home runs and a walk. Ingle now has a ridiculous 1.403 OPS to begin the season. It’s one of the […]
Guest article: Physical AI isn't replacing farmers. It's critical for keeping them in business
Dealer networks are at the center of physical AI's reach into farming, and key to restoring American agriculture and rural communities.
Springfield schools starts elementary science curriculum adoption process
After a two-year postponement, Springfield is rolling out its own elementary science curriculum, made from a patchwork of several different curricula. The adoption will follow an independent review process, which includes an opportunity for the public to view the materials and make comments.
MSU Student Horticulture Association hosts spring plant sale during the 14th annual Science Festival
The Student Horticulture Association hosted its spring show and plant sale on the MSU campus Sunday as part of a month-long Science Festival.
Shuhei Yoshida Says Jim Ryan Fired Him After He Refused “Ridiculous” Demands, Ending 11-Year PlayStation Studios Run
Shuhei Yoshida reveals he was fired as PlayStation Studios head after refusing "ridiculous" requests from Jim Ryan.
'I Didn't Listen to Him': Ex PlayStation Boss Shu Yoshida on Why Jim Ryan 'Fired' Him
"He asked to do some ridiculous things"
Do Arsenal need 'different style' for forwards to flourish?
It is rare for a team to be challenging for the title without a forward in the conversation for team of the season, but it is difficult to argue against the fact that is where Arsenal are. Manchester City's Erling Haaland and Antoine Semenyo will undoubtedly be in contention for the end-of-the-season awards while past title-winners have boasted the likes of Mohamed Salah, Sergio Aguero and Didier Droga. Arsenal's available forward options of Viktor Gyokeres, Kai Havertz, Gabriel Martinelli, Noni Madueke, Eberechi Eze and Gabriel Jesus undoubtedly have their strengths - but it feels a stretch to call any of them ruthless match-winners.
New study reveals how maze-like magnetic patterns form and evolve in materials
Maze magnetic domains in soft magnetic materials strongly influence energy loss in electric motors, particularly at high temperatures. However, existing models struggle to explain their complex, temperature-dependent behavior. To address this gap, researchers developed an entropy-extended Ginzburg-Landau model combined with data-driven analysis to study these structures. The approach reveals how entropy and energy interactions drive magnetization reversal and increasing domain complexity, providing new insights into magnetic energy-loss mechanisms.
Indonesia advances One Health and pandemic preparedness through CARE-I
CARE-I is financed by the Pandemic Fund, a global financing mechanism established in 2022 to strengthen pandemic prevention, preparedness and response, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. The programme focuses on advancing the One Health approach by strengthening collaboration across human, animal and environmental health sectors at both national and subnational levels. It will be implemented for three years from 2026 to 2028.
Dual-comb absolute ranging reaches orbit
Light: Science & Applications - Tianzhou-9 carried an extravehicular dual-comb absolute-ranging payload to Tiangong space station, demonstrating sustained on-orbit kHz-level updates and...
Camera Bar in Hartford celebrates 70 years in business | This Week in Connecticut
On This Week in Connecticut, Dennis House talks with Richard and Aaron Goldenthal about how a camera shop not only survives but thrives in this digital world.
In CT, doctors now sue patients most over medical bills, surpassing hospitals
Physicians, dentists and other non-hospital providers account for more than 80% of health care debt collection cases in Connecticut courts.
PAID POST: CSCU and State Officials Launch Connecticut’s Quantum Science Center
The Connecticut State Colleges and Universities Center for Quantum and Nanotechnology enables hands-on learning and research opportunities to build the talent pipeline CT needs to compete in advanced technologies.
Trump to read Bible verse from Oval Office after feud with Pope and deleted AI image
President Donald Trump will participate in a public Bible reading this week as the administration continues to integrate religion, particularly Christianity, into official business.
Avera Health hosts hundreds of families for NICU reunion
Families with children who spent some of their first days in the NICU got to reunite with those who took care of them.
Coachella 2026: Girl groups bring global reach and hometown roots
The three acts point to a broader shift at Coachella. Girl groups, particularly those from global and independent scenes, are no longer outliers on the lineup.
First-ever SPHEREx images spark hope to finally unlock the Universe’s origin mysteries - Futura-Sciences
SPHEREx Takes Off: A Mission Begins On March 11, a Falcon 9 rocket launched from California’s Vandenberg Space Force Base, carrying a particularly precious piece of NASA’s scientific arsenal: the SPHEREx space telescope. Its mission? To map the cosmos with its high-precision instruments and spectacular image quality. No pressure, right?...
Crimson Desert's Next Major Patch Adds Difficulty Settings and Inventory Tabs Next Week
Crimson Desert developer Pearl Abyss has said it’s taking the time to make sure it properly tests and polishes the game’s next major patch, which is due out next week. Here's what to expect.
How to make a high-deductible health plan work for you
How do you prepare for thousands of dollars in upfront costs? One option is a health savings account, or HSA.
AMC Entertainment price target raised to $2 from $1.50 at B. Riley
B. Riley raised the firm’s price target on AMC Entertainment (AMC) to $2 from $1.50 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Industry box office revenue rose 22% year over year in the period, outperforming expectations and driven by strong releases in March, particularly Project Hail Mary, alongside solid contributions from Scream 7 and Hoppers, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Looking ahead to Q2, box office is expected to grow slightly, with gains in June offset by weaker April
Paul Gosar's rally appearance reignites health speculation
Arizona Congressman Paul Gosar's appearance at a Turning Point USA rally has renewed public speculation about his health, with observers citing slurred speech, unsteady posture, and difficulty completing sentences. Social media users suggested, without evidence, possible neurological conditions, echoing similar concerns raised in past years. Gosar has consistently denied such rumours, attributing symptoms to arthritis, spinal issues, and past surgeries.
Governor’s wildlife commission picks face pushback ahead of Colorado Senate hearing
Colorado’s largest coalition of hunters, anglers, and wildlife conservation groups is urging state lawmakers to reject two of Gov. Jared Polis’ latest nominees to the Colorado Parks and Wildlife Commission, setting up a contentious confirmation hearing before the Senate Agriculture and Natural Resources Committee next week. Gaspar Perricone, speaking for the Colorado Wildlife Conservation Project, […]
Video: How JD Vance Is Being Tested as Trump’s Chief Defender
Vice President JD Vance has been tasked with defending the Iran war and President Trump’s attacks on Pope Leo XIV. Our White House correspondent Zolan Kanno-Youngs describes how that’s put Vance in a particularly difficult position.
Does Trump even have a political strategy?
Winning in politics means delivering on popular issues, and that is difficult for any president. Without a solid political strategy and discipline is nigh impossible.
UM students to compete in 37th business startup challenge
A panel of 24 evaluators from across Montana meticulously reviewed over 103 submissions, selecting 14 finalists to compete in this year’s event.
Carrick needs Man Utd form reversal
It has been interesting to observe how Manchester United have been assessed in the wake of Monday's disappointing home defeat by Leeds, and particularly the reaction to Michael Carrick. What had previously been viewed as calmness in the technical area and a sense of stability gained from not making many changes, was suddenly viewed as inaction and questions were raised about why Carrick did not bring on any substitutes. To that end, Manchester United are not doing well.
Colorado shouldn’t risk cutting off access to earned wage access
By Tenisha James I live and work in Connecticut, not Colorado — but what’s happening in your state matters to people like me. I’ve already seen how policies that restrict earned wage access (EWA) can play out in real life. And I wouldn’t wish that experience on Colorado workers. Like many people, I’ve felt the squeeze […]
Red hair gene favoured by natural selection over last 10,000 years, study finds
Scientists suggest red hair and fair skin were favoured for vitamin D efficiency in study focused on whether human evolution plateaued after advent of agriculture
Institute Report Highlights Best Practices in Mobile Health
The report illustrates the value of mobile health care delivery, particularly for the patients and communities essential hospitals serve, and showcases the innovative work of participating hospitals.
CBIA BizCast: Setback for Small Business Healthcare » CBIA
Health care affordability, Connecticut’s economy, and workforce development are front and center on this episode of CBIA BizCast.
Despite late-night maneuvering, agriculture bond fails enactment again
A final push for a $45 million agriculture bond was still not quite enough to get the legislation past the finish line and on the November ballot. Instead, the bond is stuck between chambers as the Maine Legislature ends the session.
Sunsoft's Upcoming Switch Game Has One Of The Most Ridiculous Titles Ever
Though this won't be new to light novel fans
Iran’s Confrontation Strategy through the Dichotomy of Geography and Time
Iran has clearly benefited from developing deterrence strategies, particularly following the 12-day war in June 2025.
Arsenal got the job done against Sporting. It may be a blueprint for success against Man City
It was not particularly pretty but it was effective and they were recognisably Arsenal. They must lean into that identity at the Etihad
How Dangerous Is Anthropic’s New AI Model? Its Chief Science Officer Explains.
Just how fast is the future coming at us, and how worried should we be? Last week, Anthropic announced Claude Mythos, the latest in what has become the leading family of AI models. In a very short time, AI models from Anthropic and other companies have become shockingly powerful at coding. But Mythos stands out because it is not just able to write code that can hack into critical systems, like those that run financial companies, but also to analyze systems and find and string together vulnerabilities in them, allowing Mythos to evade even sophisticated defenses. Anthropic chose to release Mythos to only about 40 leading corporations, so they could analyze the model’s capabilities and prepare countermeasures, in an effort it calls Project Glasswing. The release of Mythos—and the prospect of similarly powerful AIs to follow—has caused tremors at the top levels of Washington and corporate America. Jared Kaplan, co-founder and chief science officer at Anthropic, is at the center of this breakthrough. We sat down with Kaplan so he could walk us through just how powerful Mythos is, what the implications are for issues like our personal privacy, and what comes next. This conversation has been edited for length and clarity. Sean Fischer: For the layman, how is Claude Mythos different—more powerful, more dangerous—from previous models released by Anthropic? Jared Kaplan: I think most people have experienced the fact that our computers get faster and faster over time and over many decades. There’s this very smooth trend where every 18 months, maybe, computer processing power doubles. I think AI is on a trend in which it’s improving maybe 10 times faster than that. A lot of the earliest work that I did in AI was around identifying this scaling trend in AI. Claude Mythos is the latest model from Anthropic, but it’s not different because it’s qualitatively different. It’s really just kind of the culmination of the trend of AI models getting smarter and smarter at all kinds of general capabilities, from reasoning to software engineering to scientific research to knowledge work. For us, it was the first model to demonstrate very elite-level cybersecurity capabilities. It wasn’t because we trained Claude Mythos to focus on cybersecurity, but it was because, as a byproduct of its general intelligence and its general ability with software, it’s particularly good at identifying vulnerabilities in software and how to exploit them.
Barnesville businesses forced to make difficult decisions after massive fire
Scientists Stunned: A Giant Sea Creature Still Hides Unseen in the Ocean - Futura-Sciences
The Elusive Ghost of the Depths In the vast expanse of the world’s oceans, some species still manage to escape the all-seeing gaze of humankind. Among these slippery escape artists, one creature in particular consistently evades every scientific effort to observe it. In fact, scientists have never witnessed a single...
2025-26 Academic All-America® Woen's Basketball teams announced for all NCAA and NAIA divisions
Four CSC Academic All-America ® Team Member of the Year recipients including University of Connecticut’s Azzi Fudd, Olivia Reed Thyne from Colorado Mesa University, Carroll University’s Natalie Gricius, and Macy Sievers of Dordt University, highlight the 2025-26 CSC Women's Basketball Academic All-America® teams for NCAA Divisions I, II, III and the NAIA announced by College Sports Communicators.
RFK Jr.'s focus on nutrition misses one main ingredient
Food insecurity, food deserts and structural inequities do not fall evenly across our society. They particularly impact communities of color.
GOP faces rising political tides on Iran, affordability in midterm year
Republicans are facing an increasingly difficult political environment in a midterm election year where their majorities in the House and Senate are on the line. The Iran war has been a drag on Pre…
How Eric Swalwell rose to the top of Democratic politics as rumors followed him
Allies like Rep. Nancy Pelosi and Sen. Ruben Gallego say they knew nothing about the misconduct allegations, with Gallego saying the congressman led a “double life.”
JJ Redick on Lakers' preparation for playoff series versus Rockets
Lakers coach JJ Redick knows that one area in particular will be a big key and concern in the team's playoff series versus the Rockets.
SB 1397: Better Science = Better Policy
Managing California’s majestic mountain lion population, particularly in areas of conflict with areas where humans...
95% of people carry this virus and scientists may have just found how to stop it
Scientists have taken a major step toward stopping Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), an extremely common infection linked to cancer and chronic disease. By using mice engineered with human antibody genes, researchers created powerful human-like antibodies that block the virus from attaching to and entering immune cells. One of these antibodies completely prevented infection in lab models with human immune systems, marking a breakthrough after years of difficulty tackling EBV’s ability to invade nearly all B cells.
Agriculture and Life Sciences faculty join University Distinguished Professor ranks
Texas A&M University has named Binayak Mohanty, Ph.D., and Catharine Ross, Ph.D., University Distinguished Professors.
NEPAL: ‘Voting on Discord was a very Gen Z way of doing politics’
CIVICUS discusses Gen Z-led protests in Nepal with Abhijeet Adhikari (Abhi), a lawyer and political activist who took part in the protests.
Beef is making a comeback – does it fit into a healthy diet?
The protein craze is in full swing and beef consumption is on the rise, particularly in the US, where health agencies are promoting red meat as part of an optimum diet. So, how much beef should we really be eating, and how does it impact our well-being?
CBIA slams Appropriations Committee for rejecting small business health care bill
The state’s largest business organization is taking Connecticut legislators to task after the Appropriations Committee failed Monday to approve a bill that aims to help small businesses with their health care costs.
CBIA slams Appropriations Committee for rejecting small business health care bill
The state’s largest business organization is taking Connecticut legislators to task after the Appropriations Committee failed Monday to approve a bill that aims to help small businesses with their health care costs.
Millions of Floridians Will Bear the Brunt of Trump’s Health Cuts
Medicaid cutbacks and the end of enhanced Obamacare subsidies leave patients and hospitals in the state with difficult choices
Opinion: 3 things Democrats should do to support small business in CT
New Haven's Caroline Tanbee Smith outlines 3 pillars of strategy to boost small business in Connecticut.
Bethel conference highlights how ‘better science occurs’ with local knowledge at the table
Researchers and local experts gathered in Bethel in early April to share and compare environmental knowledge at the Western Alaska Interdisciplinary Science Conference, particularly across issues facing the Yukon-Kuwkoksim Delta.
Rick Roth stays self-reliant, David Silvers taps Disney dollars in Q1 fundraising for SD 26 seat
Silvers’ donor list reflects broad corporate and political committee backing, while Roth’s gains depended significantly on agricultural sources.
70th annual Convocation celebrates Agriculture and Life Sciences students
Texas A&M College of Agriculture and Life Sciences honored students, faculty and staff for outstanding leadership, scholarship and service at a recognition ceremony.
ECU Health Medical Center Surgical Intensive Care Unit earns Beacon Award for Excellence
National award from American Association of Critical-Care Nurses recognizes exceptional patient care
Data Breaches Announced by DermCare Management; Option Care Health; Aetna
Data breaches have recently been announced by DermCare Management in Florida, Option Care Health in New York, and Aetna in Connecticut. DermCare Data breaches have recently been announced by DermCare Management in Florida, Option Care Health in New York, and Aetna in Connecticut.
From Jurassic Park to dreams of AI doom, pop culture shapes science more than we like to admit
The relationship between science and pop culture often looks like a one-way street: scientific discoveries inspire films, television and novels, particularly in science fiction. But the relationship really ...
'American Pie' star Shannon Elizabeth recalls dancing for Jason Biggs in 'difficult' audition
Shannon Elizabeth says the 'American Pie' Barenaked Ladies scene was flipped for her audition — meaning she hd to dance for Jason Biggs: 'I was really scared.'
Chelsea 0-3 Man City: What Rosenior said
If you go down against teams as good as this, what you have to do for the next five minutes is to stay in the game. It ended up being a really, really difficult second half." On building resilience in the team: "I am accountable.
Why reopening the Strait of Hormuz won’t be enough to solve shipping woes and high oil prices
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is proving to be difficult. But even if the vital waterway fully opens and oil and other necessary cargo sail out, it won’t be enough to return things to normal.
Let’s all go to the science fair
“While participation was down this year, I believe the changes in the judging and awards element allowed us to focus on the most important things which were the students and their projects,” said Sara Milner, pre-K through fifth grade curriculum supervisor for Duxbury Public Schools. “We wanted the event to be about showcasing the students’
Health-Related Quality of Life in Burn Injury Victims Attending a Specialized Institution
Introduction Burn injuries cause long-term physical, psychological, and social consequences that substantially affect health-related quality of life (HRQOL), particularly in LMICs. The eviden...
Kids with heart defects soar on zip lines at University Health Kids Heart Camp
SAN ANTONIO - Kids battling some very serious health dificulties got the chance toTwo dozen children born with heart defects spent Saturday trying out the kind
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
Seniors: Dennis Ouellette, 80
Ontario Orchards owner not slowing down as he grows his farm market By Stefan Yablonski The seeds for Dennis Ouellette’s career path were sown when he was 6 years old — and he isn’t slowing down. “Since age 6, I grew up an agriculturalist. That is 72 years. Started out with a 37-acre farm when I bought it from my parents and built it up to almost 300 acres. Brought it back down to around 200 acres now,” he said. The location of his business was just a barn, a horse barn, he said. “In 1967, it officially became Ontario Orchards Farm Market. My wife [June] and I graduated [high school] in 1964 and three years later we became Ontario Orchards. We have been here more than 60 years,” he explained. “It is the same location. We have expanded over the years as the customers mentioned different things; we have expanded to bring in different products. “What keeps me going is I totally enjoy what I am doing. I enjoy the people that I work with. The customers are wonderful. Mostly, more important than anything, is my family — my wife, my daughters, grandchildren, son-in-law — we are still very much a family business I’m not going to retire just yet.” He also enjoys the changing seasons. “Ontario Orchards is a four-season business. There is always something new; more energy, more interest. Not only for the business but for my staff, the people that work here. Things keep changing, changing. We are always looking forward to something new and exciting,” he said. They work with quite a number of local farmers within the area and throughout the state, throughout the country and from around the world.” “We do have things from different countries around the world. But specifically, we are very excited about the local. We have an over 200-acre farm. We sell just about everything we raise on that farm right here at the farm market. For example, we press cider year-round. We make baked goods every day, year-round. We sell our apples 12 months a year.” “Today, there are so many products in Ontario Orchards that we never would have thought of in 1967,” he continued. “I attribute a lot of that to my daughters. I like the young blood and new energy. That is very crucial to a business, it keeps it vibrant.” What’s his favorite part of the job? “I don’t have a favorite part. I enjoy it all. I have a lot of intertest in other things,” he said. “I have staff that knows so much. I can go to the staff and say, ‘I don’t know what this is, you tell me what this is.’ They are so knowledgeable. It is impossible for one person to know everything in this place. In the summer, staff is about 60; in the winter about 20, 25.” He added that he plans on being around for several more years.
Seniors: Carol Watson, 72
Owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping in LaFayette enjoys her growing business — still puts in six-, seven-day weeks By Mary Beth Roach Carol Watson, the owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping, has been in gardens since she could walk. Literally. She said she learned to walk in her grandfather’s garden, which was next door to her current home and business in LaFayette. Today, at 72, she is running the business that her mother, Claire, opened in 1981 as Watson Greenhouse. Watson worked part-time for her mom until 1990, when she joined her full time. While she may not have had any formal horticultural experience, she said she learned so much about growing and raising plants from her mom, who had an abundance of energy and talent. Now, after 35 years in the business full time, Watson has no plans to retire, although she joked that she’d like a couple of days off a week. On her seven-acre site, complete with four greenhouses, Watson said her favorite parts of the job are working with and educating her customers; helping some of her young customers build terrariums; conducting occasional class field trips; and supporting local art by decorating the shop with an eclectic mix of pottery from at least four area craftspeople. A one-time employee of the former Dey Bros. department store in Syracuse, Watson said she loves merchandising and enjoys displaying unique pieces of art on shelves and even suspending from ceilings. “We’re creative. We also had top quality plants. We got a reputation of quality plants and unusual products,” she said. It’s tending to her customers and her plants, showcasing the unusual products, and hosting special events to benefit the community that keep her motivated to work six to seven days a week. “I just love it. I love taking care of the plants. I’m one of the few people that really enjoys watering,” she said. And while she has cultivated a solid customer base over the years, she remains savvy in her marketing efforts to draw in new customers. For example, she does a gardening segment on CNY Central television; her active Facebook page has thousands of followers; and she hosts a number of unique events and classes that not only introduce her shop to potential new clients, but some benefit nonprofits as well. About 13 years ago, when the local symphony orchestra was struggling, she said she wanted to help. So, partnering with the group, she began offering concerts, called Soirees, featuring the Syracuse Orchestra’s string quartet. Following up on a suggestion from a customer whose brother is a deejay in retirement, specializing in sock hops, she hosted the greenhouse’s first sock hop. Plants got moved back toward the walls to make room for dancing; a caterer was brought in, offering diner-like food; guests came in period outfits; and proceeds went to the Food Bank of CNY. She is excited about doing it again in October. Via her website, she promotes the greenhouse as an “oasis in the snow,” offering visitors the opportunity to pick up some decorating and gift ideas while taking in the floral and citrus scents. And she also caters to her four-legged friends. Over this past winter, she said, she came up with a “brilliant idea,” although at the time she didn’t appreciate just how brilliant it would become. Feeling it too cold outside to take her dog for a walk, she opted to bring it into the greenhouse. And before long, she was inviting people to bring their dogs into the big greenhouse as well. She looks forward to extending that invitation again this upcoming winter season. For Watson and her customers, the greenhouse is always in season.
China's K-pop worries: The reasons why a ban on Korean entertainment has lasted a decade
As mega K-pop group BTS returns to the stage after a hiatus of more than three years, one major market is conspicuously missing from its 12-month world tour: China. The omission of one of the group's biggest fan bases comes as no surprise. In fact, just the opposite would have…
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
'It was difficult for both teams'
QPR boss Julien Stephan spoke to BBC Radio London after the goalless draw with Bristol City