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COVID Loans Were Meant For Businesses. DOJ Says $170K Went To His Personal Account
A North Carolina man has pleaded guilty after federal prosecutors said he obtained more than $170,000 from COVID-era business loan programs using false applications. Phillip ... Read More
Iowa small businesses encouraged to compete for federal defense contracts
Iowa small business owners are being encouraged to compete for billions of dollars in government contracts as the federal government looks to expand its defense industrial base.
Iowa small businesses encouraged to compete for federal defense contracts
Iowa small business owners are being encouraged to compete for billions of dollars in government contracts as the federal government looks to expand its defense industrial base.
Trump filing shows he took in about $1.2 billion from crypto businesses last year
NEW YORK (AP) — President Donald Trump took in nearly $1.2 billion dollars from his crypto businesses last year, a federal filing released Monday shows.
Trump filing shows he took in about $1.2 billion from crypto businesses last year
President Donald Trump took in nearly $1.2 billion dollars from his crypto businesses last year, a federal filing released Monday shows.
Trump filing shows he took in about $1.2 billion from crypto businesses last year
President Donald Trump took in nearly $1.2 billion dollars from his crypto businesses last year, a federal filing released Monday shows.
Trump filing shows he took in about $1.2 billion from crypto businesses last year
President Donald Trump took in nearly $1.2 billion dollars from his crypto businesses last year, a federal filing released Monday shows.
Western Pa. nurse accused in lawsuit of causing 2 patient deaths, stealing drugs
A federal lawsuit accuses Heritage Valley Health System and staff members of enabling alleged crimes by emergency department nurse Nolan Chismire, including drug theft, false insurance claims, and failures in patient care allegedly linked to two deaths.
Small Businesses Snagged $273 Billion In Federal Contracts, Even As Thousands Continue To Leave Contracting Base
Even as the government meets its goals in working with small businesses, a concerning trend appears to be accelerating.
Court rules N.Y. all-electric buildings mandate does not violate federal law
The law would new gas hookups in new buildings under seven stories before expanding to all new buildings.
Court rules N.Y. all-electric buildings mandate does not violate federal law
The law would new gas hookups in new buildings under seven stories before expanding to all new buildings.
For crucial federal agencies, veneer of independence is stripped away
The ruling letting the president oust members of historically independent agencies without cause has shaken institutions that once believed their protections were secure.
Scranton woman charged with stealing funds from federal health care programs
A Scranton woman stole checks, some of which came from federal health insurance programs, and used them on herself, federal authorities say
The End of Independent Federal Agencies Will Change Your Business
For executives, the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in Slaughter v. Trump will likely lead to less certainty and consistency for the regulated aspects of their businesses, with federal rules and their enforcement increasingly determined by political expediency rather than expert analysis. Specifically, there are five ways in which all U.S. businesses will be affected: regulation will become more informal and less transparent; consistency across administrations will disappear; oversight by Congress and the federal courts will be diminished; expert advice will be devalued; and politically-connected lobbyists will drive decision-making. In this environment, business leaders will need to plan accordingly, honing their ability to shift strategy, perhaps dramatically, after every election—and perhaps even during administrations.
Opinion: Proposed cuts to federal funding put the stars out of reach for Alaska science students
For students at UAA and across the state, federal research support can be the difference between opportunity here and leaving for good.
Millions drop Obamacare health coverage after subsidies expire and costs rise
Experts share why millions of people lost their Affordable Care Act health insurance plans this year after federal subsidies expired.
Millions drop Obamacare health coverage after subsidies expire and costs rise
Experts share why millions of people lost their Affordable Care Act health insurance plans this year after federal subsidies expired.
Supreme Court strikes down limits on party spending in federal elections
The court’s 2010 Citizens United decision opened the door to unlimited independent spending in federal elections.
Supreme Court strikes limits on party spending in federal elections, backing GOP appeal
The Supreme Court on Tuesday erased limits on how much political parties can spend in coordination with candidates for Congress and president, striking down a federal election law that is more than 50 years old.
Supreme Court scraps check on money in politics at request of Vance, GOP
The GOP asked the Supreme Court to scrap a Watergate-era rule preventing donors from bypassing limits on what they can give federal candidates.
Strengthening Collaboration between Workforce, Health, and Human Services to Meet New Federal Requirements
Human Services Policy Advisors Institute | June 24th, 2026 H.R. 1, or “The One Big Beautiful Bill”, introduced significant changes to work requirements across major health and human services programs. including expanding the populations subject to SNAP time limits, reducing state/territory SNAP waiver flexibility, and creating new work requirements in Medicaid. These changes accelerate the […]
Gorsuch suggests Supreme Court's Trump ruling is opening move against administrative state
Justice Neil Gorsuch's concurrence suggests the Supreme Court's FTC ruling could lead to sweeping challenges against independent federal agencies' power.
A New Way to Uncover How Science Is Under Attack
Science is being threatened at a pace and scale we’ve never seen before in the federal government. It’s nearly overwhelming—but we’ve built a new system to help us monitor and explain what’s happening, looking both incident by incident and at the larger pattern. Last week, the Union of Concerned
Louisville woman sentenced to federal prison after pool business fraud
Tracy Davenport was sentenced to federal prison after facing charges in connection with defrauding customers from her pool installation business.
I went to federal prison, now I'm a CEO: lessons on bouncing back
A businesswoman served time in federal prison nearly 20 years ago. This is how she rebuilt her life.
Teen pregnancy prevention cuts hit Wisconsin program connecting health providers and teens
Federal officials have cut off more than $2.4 million in federal funds for 2026-27 and 2027-28 targeting teen pregnancy prevention that would have gone to the Wisconsin health department, according to federal records. The funds would have gone to a variety of nonprofits and agencies in counties with the highest rates of pregnancy and sexually […]
Colorado’s workers can’t afford a decline in tourism
By Terrance Carroll Work is about more than a paycheck. It is about dignity, stability and the ability to build a life, to provide for family, to contribute to community, and to move forward with purpose. That is why we should take a closer look at how federal policy decisions, even those made with good […]
Supreme Court's ruling in Cook case backs Federal Reserve's independence
The Supreme Court on Monday said the Federal Reserve, unlike any other agency in Washington, has a measure of independence from the presidency and day-to-day politics.
OPM offers incentives for healthcare and insurance employees to leave before Open Season
OPM is offering voluntary separation incentives to healthcare and insurance staff before considering "any involuntary actions."
Supreme Court hands Trump new power to tighten his grip on the federal government
Trump lost a Supreme Court case over his attempted Fed firing. But he won a bigger fight for presidential power.
Mpls council member cites 'mass shootings, federal occupation' for mental health leave
Minneapolis City Council member Aisha Chughtai said on Monday that she plans to take a month-long break from city activities to seek care for her mental health, citing stressors such as an election, mass shootings and a federal occupation as stressors for her condition.
Takeaways from the Supreme Court’s decisions expanding Trump’s firing power but preserving Fed for now
The Supreme Court handed President Donald Trump a significant win Monday by allowing him to remove the leaders of once-independent federal agencies at will, toppling a 1935 precedent in the process that could reorder the way the government functions.
From mail voting to firings, SCOTUS verdict on Trump agenda is mixed
The Supreme Court dealt the Trump agenda major blows on economic regulation and mail-in voting, but also expanded Trump's power over federal agencies.
Scientists Slam Trump Rule Change
Dr. Esen Sefik moved from Istanbul to New Haven 20 years ago because she believed the U.S. was the best place to do scientific research. Now, her advisees are wondering whether to stay in their home countries instead. Sefik described the U.S.'s changing research climate on Monday during a press conference about a proposed rule by the Trump administration that would require a political appointee to approve all discretionary federal grants.
Supreme Court: Trump may fire heads of independent agencies, but not the Federal Reserve
The court's conservatives said the president had the authority to remove all officials who wield executive authority, even if the agency officials had fixed terms set by law.
About 3 million people have dropped Obamacare health coverage after subsidies expire and costs rise
The Department of Health and Human Services suggests the 13% drop is due to a federal crackdown on fraudulent enrollmentut, but health analysts believe it's more likely related to the Jan. 1 expiration of federal subsidies.
LDI and American Healthcare
A news feature from the Pennsylvania Gazette reflects on LDI’s history and leaders, and how they are currently meeting the federal health policy moment.
TEFCA hits 1 billion as HHS invests $1.28M in network oversight
While marking TEFCA's milestone, ONC announces a new contract to enforce network compliance. Amid ongoing legal battles over alleged network misuses, Health Gorilla CEO Bob Watson emphasizes why federalizing governance is critical to trust.
Supreme Court says Fed's Lisa Cook can keep her job for now, but it upholds other Trump firings
The Supreme Court on Monday dramatically expanded presidential power, upholding President Donald Trump’s firings of the heads of independent federal agencies with one important exception, the Federal Reserve.
Supreme Court expands Trump’s power over the federal bureaucracy
The justices allowed the president to fire a Democratic member of the Federal Trade Commission, striking down a nearly century-old precedent intended to insulate independent agencies from political influence by the executive.
Supreme Court Expands Presidential Power by Allowing Trump to Fire F.T.C. Official
President Trump’s firing tested a precedent that had insulated independent regulators. But the justices carved out the “unique role” of the Federal Reserve.
Malik Beasley reportedly indicted as part of sports-betting scheme involving point shaving, prop bets
Malik Beasley was first announced as part of a federal investigation last June.
Nine-year NBA veteran indicted on federal sports gambling charges
Veteran NBA shooting guard Malik Beasley has been indicted on federal charges for gambling related to a sports betting scheme, such as point shaving and prop bets, his attorney Steve Haney told ESPN. on June 29. According to Shams Charania,…
Biden's illegal immigration surge caused higher rent and home prices, Fed study finds
A Federal Reserve working paper finds unauthorized immigration during the Biden administration drove up home prices by 2.2% and rents by 1.4%.
As medical debt burdens millions, nonprofits and some governments step in
The federal government reversed course on a Biden administration-era plan to block medical debt from appearing on credit reports
How Lenders Evaluate Small Business Loans
Jeanette Mack from Navy Federal Credit Union is here to help you understand what lenders are looking at when considering your small business loan application.
Political Control of Research Funding Threatens Sound Science
Decades of federal research funding have led to breakthroughs in medicine, technology, and environmental science. A new OMB proposal aims to derail all of this through political interference.
Mangione faces hearing ahead of trial over US health insurance CEO's killing
Luigi Mangione, the man accused of fatally shooting a health insurance executive on a Manhattan sidewalk in 2024, is due for a hearing in federal court on Monday ahead of his federal trial on stalking charges after murder and weapons charges were thrown out.
Martin County residents keep pressing state officials for funding to reopen hospital
ECU Health has proposed converting Martin General into a Rural Emergency Hospital under a federal designation.
Millions drop Obamacare health coverage after subsidies expire and costs rise
Health analysts say the drop in enrollment was likely related to the Jan. 1 expiration of federal subsidies, which caused a surge in plan costs that resulted in many people being unable to pay their premiums.
Conservative presidential power expert set to assist investigation into Trump foes
John Yoo — a well-known and, in some legal and political circles, infamous conservative lawyer — will assist a Justice Department investigation that has theorized a yearslong conspiracy against President Donald Trump and is looking at several former high-ranking federal officials.
Federal health agency cancels most of its teen pregnancy prevention grants, including some in Pa.
A spokesperson for U.S. Health and Human Services confirmed to Stateline on Friday that the agency is canceling 53 out of 67 grants, worth about $68 million, under the Teen Pregnancy Prevention Program, affecting grantees in more than two dozen states. A list obtained by Stateline of canceled grants includes those awarded to universities, community […]
Johns Hopkins Layoffs Reach Carey Business School As Federal Cuts Deepen
JHU is shedding about 110 jobs, Carey School included, just 6 weeks after Carey banked a $50 million gift.
Maine targets three initiatives for initial use of federal rural health funds
The Mills administration says it's decided how it will spend nearly half of the $190 million it's received this year through the federal Rural Health Transformation Fund.
US Oilfield Business Activity Strengthens, Though Oil Price Uncertainty Remains
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ second-quarter energy survey reports improved business conditions, despite a mixed outlook on oil prices and input costs.
Comer rejects calls for White House officials' Epstein testimony
Comer chairs the committee, which has been reviewing the federal government’s Epstein investigation.
Comer rejects calls for White House officials' Epstein testimony
Comer chairs the committee, which has been reviewing the federal government’s Epstein investigation.
Millions drop Affordable Care Act coverage after subsidies expired
New federal figures show that about 3 million fewer people had Affordable Care Act health insurance plans in February compared with the same time last year.
3 million Americans have dropped Obamacare health coverage over past year, after Republicans let federal subsidies expire
KFF expects the total number of people in the government healthcare program to continue to decline throughout the year, potentially to a low of about 17.5 million from 19.2 million now.
Millions drop Obamacare health coverage after subsidies expire and costs rise
About 3 million fewer people in the United States had Affordable Care Act health insurance plans in February compared with the same time last year, according to new federal data. In the report releas...
Millions drop Obamacare health plans after subsidies expire and costs rise
New federal figures show that about 3 million fewer people had Affordable Care Act health insurance plans in February compared with the same time last year.
Millions drop Obamacare health coverage after subsidies expire and costs rise
New federal figures show that about 3 million fewer people had Affordable Care Act health insurance plans in February compared with the same time last year. The Department of Health and Human Services...
Millions drop Obamacare coverage after subsidies expire, costs rise
New federal figures show that about 3 million fewer people had Affordable Care Act health insurance plans in February compared with the same time last year
Trump admin rule puts reproductive health care for 160K Pa. patients at risk, lawsuit says
A lawsuit says family planning and health organizations in Pennsylvania could face federal funding delays or denials due to a new Trump administration policy.
Federal health officials recall chicken, other items in Washington
The Washington State Department of Health recalled chicken, pasta salad and raisins for potentially containing unlisted ingredients.
ICE mask ban takes effect in N.Y. amid dueling lawsuits and a race for governor
The Trump administration’s lawsuit argues that states do not have the authority to regulate the federal government’s operations.
But-For Causation and the Essential Business Hurdle: Analyzing the Summary Judgment in RAAM Construction
RAAM Construction Inc v. United States of America, Case No. 2:25-cv-04681-SPG-AJR, 2026 WL 18391 (C.D. Cal. June 23, 2026). The Employee Retention Credit (ERC) codified under Internal Revenue Code Section 3134 remains a significant source of controversy, audits, and high-stakes federal litigation.
Federal health agency cancels most of its teen pregnancy prevention grants
A spokesperson for U.S. Health and Human Services confirmed to Stateline on Friday that the agency is canceling 53 out of 67 grants, worth about $68 million, under the Teen Pregnancy Prevention Program, affecting grantees in more than two dozen states.
Consumer-Directed Health Care: Promise or Pitfall
This panel will examine the evidence and policy outlook for consumer-directed health care as a federal solution to expanded coverage, with a focus on affordability, access, and health outcomes.
$13 million in federal funding to be distributed across West Michigan clinics
More than $13 million in federal funding will be distributed across West Michigan hospital and clinic systems for research projects and healthcare infrastructure.
Congress Revives SAFE Banking Bill For Cannabis Businesses
A bipartisan group of lawmakers has renewed the push to let banks serve state-legal cannabis businesses without fear of federal penalties.
Ex-national security adviser John Bolton pleads guilty to illegally retaining classified information
Former Trump administration national security adviser John Bolton pleaded guilty on Friday to illegally retaining classified information, sealing a deal with federal prosecutors that could allow him to avoid a prison term.
John Bolton pleads guilty to illegally retaining classified information
His plea deal with federal prosecutors could help him avoid prison time
Trump foe John Bolton is set to plead guilty. Here’s why the case didn’t fall apart
As several criminal investigations into President Donald Trump’s foes continue to flail, federal prosecutors are now ushering one of his biggest critics to a conviction.
Federal AI security center measure advanced by House Science
A measure that would put into law a key federal office focused on artificial intelligence advanced Thursday out of the House Science, Space and Technology Committee, as part of a slate of AI-focused and data center bills. The committee advanced the bills on a bipartisan basis, but put off potential changes regarding funding levels for […]
Opinion | Don't apply politics to scientific research
Under recently proposed rules, federal grants could be terminated midstream for reasons having little to do with science or merit.
Proposed Changes to Grant Rules Threaten the Future of Research: Scientists Must Act Now!
The Trump administration is seeking to politicize US federal science funding, but collective action can stop this grantpocalypse from happening.
Controversial billionaire tax will appear on November ballot
Proponents of a controversial billionaire tax pledge to making sure it appears on the November ballot to backfill federal healthcare funds.
JD Vance claims Diddy is 'not a Christian' after federal conviction
Sean "Diddy" Combs might have scored a reference in Vice President JD Vance's new book, but the politician is not eager to associate himself with the imprisoned music mogul.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
Trump budget request omits funds for L.A. fire relief, prompting criticism from senators
The omission is the latest strain in a yearlong standoff between California leaders and the Trump administration over federal disaster aid.
Consumer Discretionary Stocks Drawing Institutional Rotation Into Live Entertainment Leaders
With the Federal Reserve hinting at a pause in rate hikes, stubborn inflation still in the background, and several large companies surprising on earnings, consumer discretionary stocks are back in focus for investors weighing risk and opportunity. This article looks at how that mix of easier policy signals, solid corporate reports, and ongoing geopolitical and supply chain issues could affect larger U.S. consumer-focused companies. It will walk through 3 stocks from a curated screener that...
Platner, Collins’ campaign spar over federal contracts
Platner released a multi-point plan he calls “a corruption crackdown,” which covers issues such as big money in politics, lobbying activities by former members of Congress, and making it more difficult for presidents to cash in on their position while in office.
Two NC lawmakers, a Democrat and a Republican, push Congress to delay SNAP changes
Above the federal penalty threshold, NC could owe $140M a year, putting at risk a program that helps over 1.2 million North Carolinians.
Proposed CDC science office could tighten political control at agency
Under President Trump, political leaders are exerting more control across federal health agencies.
Federal judge halts Trump’s election executive order seeking to create a federal voter list
It was the second ruling in as many days against executive orders Trump has signed seeking oversight of the nation's elections.
Major part of student-loan repayment overhaul is blocked in court
A federal court ruled that the Education Department's proposed borrowing caps for advanced healthcare programs cannot take effect on July 1.
Federal court blocks Trump’s executive order limiting mail ballots
The ruling comes a month after another judge allowed Trump’s order to stand. The latest ruling sidelines major provisions of the order despite the earlier ruling.
Lane County Public Health to slash jobs as it weathers federal healthcare cuts
Lane County’s Public Health Department announced significant budget reductions as federal healthcare cuts approved by Congress in the so-called Big Beautiful Bill, or H.R.1, go into effect.
Mamdani on election wins: New Yorkers exhausted with ‘status quo politics’
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani (D) said voters showed they were exhausted with “status quo politics” by backing democratic socialists in state and federal primaries on Tuesday. Three Mamdani-ba…
Fed's favored inflation gauge accelerated in May amid energy price shock
The Commerce Department PCE inflation report for May showed the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge rose higher amid the energy price shock caused by the Iran war.
How anti-LGBTQ policies can affect business
Despite federal backlash against corporate DEI policies, companies that invest in inclusivity know that it makes economic sense.
How should European scientists respond to the US AI kill switch?
Earlier in June, Europe’s worst fears of technological dependence were confirmed when the White House ordered the AI firm Anthropic to stop non-US citizens using its leading models. This kill-switch moment crystalised anxieties in Brussels that the continent, lagging the US on the creation of leading-edge AI models, is now a technological of vassal of Washington. The shock has specific implications for European scientists and universities. Some governments are now worried that with AI being integrated into labs, Donald Trump now has his finger hovering over an off switch for European science. “Having restrictions on this tool, it can have an impact on our own research,” said France’s research minister, Philippe Baptiste, at the VivaTech conference in Paris on June 18.Baptiste, himself a former academic, said that colleagues in mathematics had recently warned him they were now cut off from leading-edge US models, risking their work. “This model is not available anymore now because of the US restriction, and for the first time this had an impact on mathematics,” a field where large language models (LLMs) are making a significant contribution, said Baptiste. So, should European scientists avoid relying on US models in the future? Or would this be a self-harming overreaction? And how is AI being used in science, anyway? What happened?On June 12, it emerged that Washington, citing cybersecurity concerns, had ordered Anthropic to stop non-US citizens using two models: Claude Mythos 5, and Claude Fable 5, a version of Mythos but with guardrails to prevent abuse. Anthropic said Washington’s concerns were overblown. But forced to follow the order, yet with no way to check who was using the models, the company suddenly shut down access for everyone, US citizens included. There’s still no agreement on how to restore broad access. But last week, Bloomberg reported that select US companies, and the US government, still had access to Mythos despite the ban, but the EU’s cybersecurity agency Enisa had been shut out. Class division of researchersIn the longer term, access outside the US should be restored, said Marcel Salathé, co-director of the AI centre at the Federal Polytechnic School of Lausanne (EPFL), because a permanent restriction would be financially ruinous to US AI firms. “Even Trump will eventually budge to economic pressure,” he said.However, US AI firms might end up operating rather like banks, doing due diligence on users of their leading-edge AI models, he went on.European scientists are unlikely to fall foul of such checks, he said. But having a Chinese postgraduate in their lab, or doing a type of research the US disapproved of, could potentially result in access being denied. “It will create a sort of class division of researchers,” he said. More than frontier modelsHowever, successfully deploying AI in science is about far more than just having access to leading LLMs such as Mythos.Instead, many science-specific tools, most famously Alphafold, which predicts protein folding structures, require “far less” computing power to train than frontier models, well within the capabilities of European supercomputers, according to a recent analysis by the Arq Foundation, a Brussel-based AI think tank. Instead, tools such as Alphafold are possible because certain fields, like protein folding, weather prediction or astronomy, have large, clean, standardised datasets that can be used to train predictive models. Rather than compute, “data is the central constraint for AI for science,” the report says. For example, a less powerful physics model trained on CERN’s data “will be more valuable than the best model without certain data,” said Bengüsu Özcan, author of the report. European advantage?Europe could therefore steal a march by using its scientific data and infrastructure to create models US digital giants cannot. “They might actually match or go even beyond what these big [US] companies are doing,” said Özcan.Indeed, some European start-ups hope to create automated testing labs to create the kind of standardised data that could speed up the discovery of new materials. Materials scientists say there’s currently too little data to train models. AI scientistsHowever, even if the bottleneck for AI in science is often data, rather than compute, being at the mercy of the US for LLM access could still become a problem for European scientists. A new class of “AI scientists” based on leading LLMs is also emerging, Özcan’s report says.Unlike domain-specific tools like Alphafold, these try to automate day-to-day scientific work, by providing an overarching tool that coordinates specific models to synthesise existing literature, generate hypotheses or run analysis of data. The problem for Europe, however, is that these tools are sometimes based on US leading models. Google Deepmind’s AI Co-Scientist, for example, is built on Google’s Gemini LLM. Systematic failureThese scientific automation tools are still in their early stages, and still exhibit “systematic failures on scientific tasks,” Özcan’s report says. One of the problems is that the messy, day-to-day process of scientific discovery is largely not documented, meaning LLMs don’t have a good source of data to learn how scientists actually work. Meanwhile, some tasks, such as literature synthesis, don’t typically require access to leading edge models.However, the performance of AI scientific assistants could improve as companies such as Google pour resources into developing them. Rely on US“Unfortunately, for scientific assistants, there is not much we can do right now except rely on US frontier AI,” said Antoine Bosselut, a natural language processing expert based at EPFL. Chinese-built open models, which can run on local computers, lessening the risk of a shutdown, are touted as one alternative to US dependence. There’s also Mistral, once seen as Europe’s main AI hope, but the Paris-based company has seen its recent models fall behind in performance. But the Chinese alternatives are generally not as capable as US frontier AI models, said Bosselut, unless paired with fiddly, custom tools that allows them to act as independent agents. “Most scientists do not have the time,” he said. Don’t jump ship yetAlthough the kill switch moment is seen a warning shot for European scientists, it doesn’t mean labs should abandon US AI tools immediately. “I do not think the right response is simply to abandon US-based models and systems under the banner of sovereignty or independence,” said Mattias Björnmalm, secretary general of the Cesaer university association. “That would be an overreaction.”Related articlesEuropean sovereignty in AI requires ‘ugly trade-offs,’ say experts Robotic lab start-up makes case for €500M EU-funded materials testing facilityAI in science: is it useful? Instead, European researchers need to ask themselves whether they’re becoming dependent on technology that could be turned off in Washington, said Özcan. “They might not see this today, but they should really start asking this question,” she said. European researchers need a plan B, said Salathé. “I would recommend to every researcher, very proactively explore alternatives.”Own toolsIn addition, Björnmalm and others want European research institutions to develop their own scientific AI tools.Instead of signing AI deals with US digital giants, European universities should be using this money to create their own models, which may end up being superior for research, said Sabine Leonelli, an expert on the use of AI in science at the Technical University of Munich. “Universities in Europe seem to be happy to sign commercial contracts with US companies on the assumption [their AI tools] are better,” she said. But US frontier LLMs are typically opaque, and have been developed without independent scientific input, she said. “This is not good enough for science.”Last year, Swiss researchers released Apertus, an LLM designed to be completely transparent, from its development methods to its training data. The idea is that this makes scientific tools built on top of the model far more reproducible than with closed, commercial alternatives.“Europe needs more of this: serious capacity-building that gives researchers, universities and companies credible options,” said Björnmalm.
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