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'Nations need to prepare now': Key Atlantic ocean current is much closer to collapse than scientists thought
An alarming study claims the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is weakening more than than believed previously. But experts say its findings are far from the final word.
Shohei Ohtani's roster spot an unfair advantage, claims Craig Counsell ahead of weekend Dodgers-Cubs series
As a two-way player, Ohtani is listed as a position player, which allows the Dodgers to roster 13 other pitchers
Apple Is Working On A High-Resolution Camera Upgrade That Its Chinese Competitors Have Been Investing Millions To Implement
A rumor claims that Apple is working to bring a high-resolution camera upgrade to its iPhones, but Chinese manufacturers are investing millions to bring it
NC lawmakers urged to boost Safe Sleep funding after 1,100 infant deaths in less than a decade
From 2015 to 2023, unsafe sleep environments claimed the lives of 1,135 North Carolina infants, data shows.
L’Oréal film reclaims ‘Because I’m Worth It’ for Ilon Specht and raises bar for branded content
“The Final Copy of Ilon Specht” for L'Oréal Paris wins Branded Entertainment/Content Campaign of the Year at the 2026 Creativity Awards.
Mira Costa boys volleyball gets revenge against rival Redondo Union
Mira Costa boys' volleyball defeats Redondo Union in four sets to avenge an earlier loss this season to the Sea Hawks and stake its claim to a No. 1 playoff seed.
Democrats urge OPM to scrap plans for ‘unprecedented’ access to feds’ health data
Citing “legal, ethical and security concerns,” lawmakers demanded that OPM end its efforts to collect claims-level health data on federal insurance enrollees.
Rory McIlroy, Lando Norris claim honours at Laureus Sports Awards
Rory McIlroy and Lando Norris picked up honours at this year's Laureus Sports Awards in Madrid on Monday.
Carlos Alcaraz, Aryna Sabalenka claim top honours at 2026 Laureus World Sports Awards
Paris Saint-Germain is named Team of the Year, Nadia Comăneci receives the Lifetime Achievement prize as winners span the Olympic Games, tennis, football, and Formula One.
Lily Allen’s ‘West End Girl’ tour is a brutal, brilliant look at romantic betrayal
"Lily Allen Presents West End Girl" is a fearless display from a woman reclaiming her dignity. Here's how the concert show unfolds.
The $166 Billion Tariff Refund Portal Is Now Open: How Your Business Can File a Claim Today
A new federal portal opened Monday, giving importers their first chance to recover duties ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court.
Leaker: Apple Downgrading iPhone 18 to Cut Costs
Apple is downgrading the planned specifications of the standard iPhone 18 to cut costs, a leaker claims. In a new post on Weibo, the user known as "Fixed Focus Digital" said that the iPhone 18 features "certain manufacturing downgrades" that bring it more into line with the low-cost iPhone 18e model. The decision is said to be "a cost-cutting measure".
Kash Patel Sues The Atlantic for $250 Million Over Article Claiming Excessive Drinking
Mr. Patel sued the publication for defamation, asking for $250 million in damages. A spokeswoman for The Atlantic called the suit “meritless.”
Tariff refund system launches as thousands of companies file claims
The refund system set up to allow companies to recover illegally collected tariffs from the U.S. government went live on Monday as thousands of companies rushed to file claims.
Tariff refund system for businesses scheduled for launch on Monday
The U.S. tariff refund system is set to launch on Monday, allowing businesses to submit their claims for reimbursements after paying $166 billion on duties determined to be illegal by the Supreme C…
Shuhei Yoshida says he was ‘fired’ from his role as PlayStation studio president because he ‘didn’t listen to’ Jim Ryan
Yoshida previously claimed he was forced to take on a new indie role or leave the company…
Businesses can claim refunds for Trump tariffs ruled unconstitutional starting Monday
It’s the first step in a complicated process that also might eventually lead to refunds for consumers who were billed for some or all of the tariffs on products shipped to them from outside the U.S.
Starting Monday, businesses can claim refunds for Trump’s unconstitutional tariffs. But it will take 60-90 days to get paid
Importers and their brokers will be able to begin claiming refunds through an online portal beginning at 8 a.m., according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
Matt Fitzpatrick holds off Scottie Scheffler in a playoff to claim RBC Heritage for second win of the season
Matt Fitzpatrick has now won twice in his last three starts on the PGA Tour.
Michigan attorney general rejects Trump administration ballot request amid broader push to challenge elections
Michigan’s attorney general is rejecting an effort by the US Justice Department to obtain ballots and other voting materials from the Detroit area, a target of the Trump administration’s efforts to probe elections in states that the president falsely claims he won in 2020.
Businesses can claim refunds for Trump tariffs ruled unconstitutional starting Monday
A refund system for businesses that paid tariffs ruled unconstitutional by the U.S. Supreme Court is scheduled to launch Monday.
Businesses can claim refunds for Trump tariffs ruled unconstitutional starting Monday
A refund system for businesses that paid tariffs which the U.S. Supreme Court eventually struck down is scheduled to launch on Monday.
Businesses can claim refunds for Trump tariffs ruled unconstitutional starting Monday
A refund system for businesses that paid tariffs which the U.S. Supreme Court ruled President Donald Trump imposed without the constitutional authority to do so is scheduled to launch Monday. Importers and their brokers will be able to begin claiming refunds through an online portal beginning at 8 a.m., according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the agency administering the system. It's the first step in a complicated process that also might eventually lead to refunds for consumers who were billed for some or all of the tariffs on products shipped to them from outside the United States.
Are you a woman who makes life easier for everyone else? Beware – you could endanger your health
A new claim is doing the rounds online: that women who are too nice risk getting an autoimmune disease. And while aspects of this message are clearly dubious, there’s a reason it is resonating, writes Emma Beddington
Report: Romano claims full future agreement for Liverpool star
Robertson Exit Looms as Liverpool Face Summer ShiftThere is a quiet inevitability to the way football moves on. At Liverpool, where eras tend to be defined by consistency and identity, the prospect of...
Hungary’s Magyar demands vote rerun in constituency with namesake politician
Péter Magyar claims the Fidesz party ran a “proxy candidate” in the region.
“Looking into this” as Xbox’s new CEO steps in after an Insider update reportedly bricks a Series S and raises fresh concerns
A user part of the Xbox Insider Program claims a recent update bricked their Series S, prompting a direct response from CEO Asha Sharma.
NBA play-in 2026: Suns emphatically end Warriors' season to claim West's final playoff spot, Magic advance in East
Saints down IronPigs for third straight victory
Despite being outhit 12-5 by visiting Lehigh Valley, the St. Paul Saints claimed their third win in a row with a 7-4 defeat of the IronPigs at CHS Field. St. Paul emerged from the first inning with a 3-1 lead after two-run homer by Alan Roden was followed by a solo shot from Kyler Fedko. After a scoreless second inning, the Saints went up 6-2 after the third after another exchange of runs ...
Rapper Tory Lanez sues California prison system for $100 million over stabbing by inmate
Rapper Tory Lanez has sued the California prison system, claiming he should not have been housed with an inmate who stabbed him 16 times last year.
Leigh claim first away win of season at York
Leigh Leopards' attack proves too strong for York Knights as they win 18-6 to claim their first away victory of the Super League season.
Katy Perry is under investigation by Australian police over Ruby Rose sexual assault allegations from over a decade ago
Perry's rep denied the claims, calling them "categorically false." Warning: This story contains descriptions of alleged sexual assault.
Donald Tusk claims Russian-backed crypto firm influenced Polish politics
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk claims a cryptocurrency firm with “Russian money” has sponsored politicians from Poland's former government.
Russia drafts time limit on privatisation lawsuits to reassure business
A new Russian draft law would set a 10-year limit on legal claims disputing privatisation deals, after business leaders complained about a surge in state seizures of private property since the start of the military campaign in Ukraine.
LIV Golf ‘business as usual’ but chief admits rebel tour may need to raise money
Chief executive Scott O’Neil has rejected claims that LIV Golf is close to collapse but said ‘structural changes’ are afoot
Medical malpractice claim filed against McLeod Health involving death has settled: Lawyer
A Medical malpractice claim filed against McLeod Health involving the death of Flora Mae Clark of the Fairmont Robeson County woman has been settled, according
Oklahoma's Faith Torrez wins NCAA gymnastics all-around title
Oklahoma's Faith Torrez made her all-around season debut Thursday night and defeated Olympic and world champions to claim NCAA gymnastics' highest individual honor.
‘Save the Garden’ turns to embattled lawyer as petition effort falters
Sabatini claims a mistake that led to the petitions' rejection shouldn't be cause for dismissal, but another legal expert disagrees.
U.S. DOL: Florida sees jump in new jobless claims for first full week in April
Florida's increase in new unemployment filings was in line with the national trend in early April.
Trump says Iran agrees to hand over ‘nuclear dust’
Iran has not confirmed Trump’s claim. Giving up its highly enriched uranium would be a major step toward an agreement.
Can Suns’ Devin Booker reclaim superstar form against Warriors?
PHOENIX – There’s a difference between great players and defining superstars in the NBA. For Devin Booker, Friday night isn’t just another elimination game; it’s a referendum.
Protecting kids from deceptive and unsubstantiated health claims: the FTC’s case against TruHeight
Parents and kids (like all consumers) need clear, truthful information to make informed decisions — especially when those decisions affect their children’s health and physical safety. With that in mind, the FTC is working to protect kids and teens from deceptive health claims. Take the Agency’s recent case: the FTC charged Vanilla Chip LLC, which does business as TruHeight, with using unsubstantiated health claims and fake or incentivized reviews to market its supplements to kids, teenagers, and caregivers.
PlayStation 6 Will Have Backward Compatibility With PS4 And PS5 Games, It's Claimed
New rumors and claims are surfacing that the PlayStation 6 could debut with immediate backward compatibility for all PS4 and PS5 games.
Parker coffee shop claims unannounced construction project in Colorado threatens business
Wasteland Remastered is now free to claim and keep on Xbox
It's time to grab another free Xbox game! InXile Entertainment's Wasteland Remastered is currently available to claim for free on the Microsoft Store.
UConn Business Students Claim ‘Double Victories’ at QuantumUP! Event
Transportation efficiency was the area tackled by both teams from the MSBAPM program
How to file a claim in Northwell Health patient data sharing lawsuit settlement
The settlement offers cash and privacy monitoring to select Northwell Health patients. Those eligible need to submit a claim by April 20.
TSMC Will Force Smartphone Makers To Make Chipset Downgrades This Year, With DRAM Shortage Also Contributing To This Burden
Even though 2nm chipset launches are expected in Q4 2026, one tipster claims that TSMC will be partly responsible for smartphone companies making downgrades
UroFlow Claims Evaluated: Reviewing the Official Website Benefits & Ingredients to Support Prostate Health
A 2026 consumer information overview of how UroFlow presents its Saw Palmetto, Pygeum Africanum, Lycopene, and Tomato Sauce Trick ingredient references, official website benefit descriptions, pricing structure, and published guarantee terms for men researching natural prostate and urinary flow support supplementsLakeland, FL, April 15, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- This article contains affiliate links. If a purchase is made through these links, a commission may be earned at no additional cost to the
NJ health officials spar with Hudson County hospital system
NJ officials and the owner of the former Christ Hospital are sparring over the owner’s claim that it may reopen the facility in some capacity
Knoxville couple claim scammer used their business name to pose as repairman
KNOXVILLE, Tenn. (WATE) — A Knoxville couple who operate an appliance repair business says their company name is being used by a scammer. The couple says the scammer has been operating for more tha…
Fraud allegations may spark additional probe
Staff found 15 instances when this occurred but noted that time limits for making a decision made it “impossible to determine the exact number of fraudulent QC’s claimed by Collector 1.”
Nebraska state employee health insurance fund nearing depletion
The fund balance for covering state employee health insurance claims could soon run dry, according to a new report from the Nebraska auditor.
Acclaimed astrophysicist and electric slam poet blend science and storytelling in upcoming UCSC lecture
The second annual Landesman Lecture features UC Santa Cruz professor Enrico Ramirez Ruiz in conversation with slam poet Jasmine Schlafke—blending science, poetry and storytelling to explore our deepest origins and shared humanity. The lecture series is made possible by UC Santa Cruz faculty retirees, Edward (Ed) and Miriam Landesman.
Adobe is making bold claims about its new Firefly AI Assistant
"All of Adobe’s magic in a single wand."
In letter to Xi, Trump asks China not to send weapons to Iran
Trump warns China against supplying weapons to Iran, says Xi Jinping responded with a letter claiming he is not providing arms to the country.
Preston Middle School reclaims state title in Science Olympiad
Preston Middle School reclaims the Science Olympiad state title, winning its 14th since 2010 and 15th overall to advance to the national tournament.
This week in Santa Cruz County business: Paystand’s new partnership, U.S. trade commission to investigate claims against Joby, Dharma’s cry for help
Jessica M. Pasko's weekly column is back with news of local payments company Paystand partnering with a big name, a U.S. Trade Commission investigation in to Joby Aviation, upcoming dates to know, and more.
Trump phone gets new look, release date still unclear
There's no information on the website about when the phone will be released, and its "Made in the USA" claims have been further watered down.
Labour claims Reform UK won’t protect women, as poll suggests Farage’s party heading for ‘seismic’ wins in May
Poll projects major political earthquake across Britain with Labour losing Wales and England’s Red Wall
StarTalk: w/ Andy Weir on the Science of Project Hail Mary (Transcript)
Editor's Notes: In this episode of StarTalk, Neil deGrasse Tyson welcomes back acclaimed sci-fi author Andy Weir to discuss the intricate scientific foundations of his latest bestseller-turned-film, Project Hail Mary. The duo explores the fascinating
Disney’s 1,000-Person Layoffs Claim Entire PR Teams, Specialty Divisions
Disney's 1,000-person layoffs impacted Marvel and several entire divisions of publicity, and some lieutenants of Asad Ayaz.
Letter: It's not politics, it's the Gospel
"Funny how (Sen.) Cramer thinks it's OK to twist Biblical passages to defend his political cruelty, but not for the Pope to speak out on the very thing all ministers of the Gospel are called to proclaim – advocacy for the least of these and the message of peace, love, grace and acceptance that’s the core of who God is and what preachers are ordained to preach," writes Rev. Paula V. Mehmel.
Veterans Health Administration Begins Recovery Audits for Community Care Claims
The Veterans Health Administration has announced the agency is starting recovery audits for community care claims submitted for Veteran and beneficiary care.
Advertisers demand billions of dollars from Google in escalating monopoly battle
Alphabet Inc.’s Google is facing billions of dollars in potential damage claims as part of mass arbitration tied to the company’s online search and advertising technology businesses, which courts have ruled were illegal monopolies.
Trump Administration Accuses Biden DOJ of Unfairly Prosecuting Anti-Abortion Activists
The report is part of the president’s effort to claim anti-conservative and anti-Christian biases in federal law enforcement, even as he pushes to wield the legal system against his political enemies.
Critics blast Democrats after Swalwell resignation, say saga shows ‘how politics really works’
Rep. Eric Swalwell's resignation amid sexual abuse allegations draws fierce criticism, with pundits claiming Democrats sat on the dirt for years.
Trump deletes Jesus image after backlash
The president claimed he thought the image depicted him as a doctor
Capital One closes Spark Miles, launches Venture Business
The Capital One Spark Miles is no longer open to new applicants, but the Venture Business has arrived to offer solid perks in its place.
In His Latest Deranged Rant, Trump Claims the Pope Is Catering to the “Radical Left”
The president is just inches from saying the conclave was rigged, isn’t he?
Hegseth right to mock Royal Navy, says ex-army chief as he backs claims over military underfunding
Richard Barrons backs George Robertson and says UK forces ‘too small and undernourished for the world that we now live in’
‘They can’t keep their zippers up’: Former Rep. Jackie Speier reacts to claims against Reps. Eric Swalwell, Tony Gonzalez
Pope Leo’s resolute response to Trump attack reveals a man of God, not politics
Pope Leo XIV does not claim to direct political outcomes. He claims the right, and the duty, to judge them.
Fact-checking Trump's claim that Pope Leo supports nuclear weapons in Iran
President Donald Trump issued a flurry of statements Sunday against Pope Leo XIV, saying in part that the U.S.-born pope supports Iran having a nuclear weapon. However, the pope has specifically spoken against nuclear weapons and their devastation.
Apple iPhone Fold: Release Date Leaked And Striking Design Revealed In Photos
What will the first folding iPhone look like? How big will it be compared to the current models? The first images claiming to be dummy units have just leaked.
Apple is making AI glasses, report claims
iPhone maker will hope that its high-end design can take on Meta’s Ray-Ban glasses
AIFF to offer 40 film programs, four days of entertainment
Ashland-born filmmaker to screen debut feature film ‘A Simple Machine’ Celebrating its 25th anniversary, the Ashland Independent Film Festival is set to return in late April, bringing in acclaimed filmmakers […]
County Tyrone: Campaigners claim gold mine plans would risk public health
Dalradian says its said it its proposals would "build an environmentally responsible project".
iPhone 18 Pro Deep Red Color Likely as Android Rivals Prep Same Shade
Apple's upcoming iPhone 18 Pro is very likely to come in a new deep red color, claims a Chinese leaker, because the color is already being prototyped by Android phone makers. In February, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman reported that Apple is testing a deep red finish for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max. Rumors of purple and brown finishes have also circulated, but Gurman believes those are just variants of the same red idea.
Hospitals roll out chatbots, looking to reclaim their role in patients' health conversations
A handful of hospitals are launching their own chatbots, a risky bet aimed at better serving current patients and gaining new ones.
Jokic stars as Nuggets secure third seed in final game
Nikola Jokic scores 23 points in the first half as the Denver Nuggets beat the San Antonio Spurs 128-118 to claim third seed in the Western Conference.
Howden steps up US push with specialty trucking build-out
The company is rolling out a dedicated US Trucking Practice focused on data, safety tech and claims advocacy
Trump says Pope Leo is ‘terrible for foreign policy’
US President Donald Trump strongly criticized Pope Leo XIV on Truth Social on Sunday evening, claiming he is “weak on crime” and “terrible for foreign policy.”
DHS investigating claim about Swalwell nanny filed by conspiracy theorist
Joel Gilbert, who mailed anti-Barack Obama film to voters in 2012, accuses congressman of violating immigration law
Byron Donalds: Regime change is imminent in Cuba
Amid rising tensions between the U.S. and Cuba, Donalds claims the fall of the Communist dicatorship will come as the economy worsens.
The thriving and lucrative business of antisemitism
Today’s trendy, provocative, and libelous claims against Jews have replaced the entertainment of the Roman Colosseum, where Christians were thrown to the lions for sport.
Calls grow for Rep. Swalwell to resign or be expelled over misconduct claims
Several Democratic and Republican lawmakers said they would be in favor of voting to expel Swalwell, as well as Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), who both face misconduct allegations.
New report claims Microsoft is considering changing Day One access to Call of Duty on Game Pass
Microsoft is reportedly considering dropping Call of Duty from its Game Pass Day One offering.
Apple iPhone Fold: Release Date Leaked And Striking Design Revealed In Photos
What will the first folding iPhone look like? How big will it be compared to the current models? The first images claiming to be dummy units have just leaked.
Fighting for health care claim approvals
How to Reclaim Your Android's Original Speed in Under 10 Minutes
Your Android is capable of a massive speed boost, and it's time you took advantage of it.
iPhone Fold’s Crease-Less Display Longevity Claims Will Be Scrutinized As OPPO Find N6’s Real-World Use Exposes Its Exaggerated Marketing
An OPPO Find N6 owner exposes the device’s false crease-less claims after a month of use, bringing pressure on Apple and its iPhone Fold
Federal judges say White House ballroom construction can continue, for now
President Donald Trump has claimed that a building pause poses a risk to national security.
'iPhone Ultra' Will Solve Two Key Problems
Apple reportedly plans to unveil a foldable iPhone in September, and the device will supposedly solve two problems with foldable smartphones. In case you missed it, a leaker on Chinese social media platform Weibo recently claimed that the foldable iPhone will be named "iPhone Ultra". According to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman, the device will have improved screen quality and overall durability compared to competing foldables.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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