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Gulf Coast Sports and Entertainment Network to air 15 Biloxi Shuckers games starting tonight
Brewers' Double-A affiliate competes in Southern League
Gulf Coast Sports and Entertainment Network to air 15 Biloxi Shuckers games starting tonight
Brewers' Double-A affiliate competes in Southern League
Gulf Coast Sports and Entertainment Network to air 15 Biloxi Shuckers games starting tonight
Brewers' Double-A affiliate competes in Southern League
The business of travel is booming in Seward
With a class offered through Alaska Vocational Technical Center, locals are learning business basics and launching new careers.
Colorado transfer G Isaiah Johnson commits to Texas
The Longhorns land one of the most coveted guards in the portal.
Youth wheelchair racing clinic helps athletes prepare for Boston Marathon
“It’s so good to see them at such a young age getting involved in sports."
Randolph Elementary holds annual Science Fair
Here are the Science Fair's fifth grade winners. Pictured, from left to right, are Emma Wernimont, Hunter Bussian, Riley Irrthum, Emmett Endres, Jude Quinnell and Finley Garner. Submitted photo
Detroit Lions 2026 NFL Draft Need Analysis: Quarterback
The Lions seem solid at the QB position for 2026, but could they add a developmental QB?
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Former HGTV host gives health update after leaving show
Her series, “No Demo Reno,” hasn't aired new episodes since 2023.
Women's Six Nations 2026: England 33-12 Ireland - hosts open title defence with victory
England open title defence with comfortable win over Ireland in front of a record Women's Six Nations crowd of 77,120 at Allianz Stadium.
Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov odds, prediction: Picks for April 11 fight from proven boxing expert
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Barcelona vs Espanyol, La Liga: TV & Streaming, Live Thread
Join us for another Barcelona La Liga adventure!
Amazon ends support for these older devices
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Barcelona face major setback in race for teenage midfield sensation
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Dodgers' Max Muncy makes incredible MLB history
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U.S. Small Business Administration in Helena to hear local perspective
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$600K grant expands school-based mental health support across Wisconsin
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Cavs trounced 124-102 by Hawks
The Cavs didn’t bring their best to Atlanta.
Agawam business expresses concern on street redesign
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City council to consider determining authority to bring entertainment district TIF to public vote
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Rachael Rollins claps back at rivals over her Suffolk DA bid
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'Malcolm in the Middle' star Bryan Cranston speaks on stunts, bee stings
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Masters 2026: Brooks Koepka's driver was set to the wrong setting
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Healthdaq: Recruitment platform used by health trusts targeted by cyber attackers
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Health researchers say GLP-1 drug may lower health risks
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Women's professional sports leagues see big surge in popularity and profits
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Lansing business owners raise drainage issues after repeated flooding on Kalamazoo Street
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Natasha Lyonne says she took sleeping pill before being escorted off flight, claims she was 'detained' by ICE
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How OpenAI's reported ad plans could change the AI business model
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Ontario’s big play: Building a sports empire in the Inland Empire
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Nebraska DHHS will pay health care providers to live and work in rural areas
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Flourishing entrepreneur: How one student manages college life with business hustle
Balancing school and work is never easy, but one Brigham Young University student has taken their ambitions outside of the classroom and said her success smells an awful lot like flowers.
There are 'reasons to be confident' about faulty Artemis II heat shield ahead of 25,000 mph reentry, space expert Ed Macauley says
NASA's Artemis II heat shield is about to face its ultimate test as the Orion crew prepares for reentry. Physics and data science lecturer Ed Macaulay tells Live Science reasons to be confident ahead of today's historic splashdown.
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Round Up: Everything Announced In The Level-5 Vision 2026 April Showcase
Layton! Inazuma! Snack World??
From politics to punches: Biden Jr challenges Trump sons to cage fight
US politics already feels like a contact sport, but one of Washington's most bitter political feuds may literally be headed to the mat after former president Joe Biden's son challenged
Morning Download: UNLV projects a nearly $11 million NIL/revenue sharing budget
On weekday mornings, Nevada Sports Net will recap three big headlines of the day in its Morning Download. Read below for today's topics.
Trump Shares Gruesome Video of Deadly Attack on Social Media
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A local sports bar and grill is opening doors for inclusion and opportunity
As Autism Awareness Month continues, Wayne’s journey serves as a reminder of the importance of community support and the impact of giving everyone a chance to succeed.
Missouri sports betting market officially launched: Get over $3,000 in sportsbook sign-up bonuses, promos
Missourians can now place sports bets with mobile sportsbooks and get Missouri sports betting offers for the Missouri betting launch
Colts, Kenny Moore II mutually agree to explore trade, per report
Moore appears to have played his last game in Indy
‘He crushed it.’ Rummel senior’s home run against Jesuit creates 3-way tie for district lead.
Joel Morange didn’t have much reason to think his fly ball to left field would leave the park.
Google’s Gmail Upgrade Decision—2 Billion Users Must Act Now
You have been warned — do not lave this "overwhelming" decision until it's too late.
Alphabet Is Quietly Building Its Next Major Business -- and It Could Be Bigger Than You Think
Most investors think of AI as a race to build better models. But behind every AI system sits something far more important -- the infrastructure that powers it. And that's where Alphabet is quietly building something big.
"Super special. ... I think those were actually a …
"Super special. ... I think those were actually a …
Regional business leaders share their perspectives on business advice
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Calls to Impeach Trump Collide With Reluctant Democratic Leadership
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Countries are turning against U.S. fossil fuels after Iran war
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Cavs at Hawks: How to watch, odds, and injury report
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Crime Scene Entertainment launches new interactive experience
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Google Rolls Out DBSC in Chrome 146 to Block Session Theft on Windows
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The 2025-2026 season (almost) comes to a close where it began for these Texas franchises
Penguins clinch playoff spot with 5-2 win over Devils
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Scientists May Have Found a New Cause of High Blood Pressure, And a Way to Treat It
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Hundreds of Colorado business leaders call for action as nearly 100 companies leave the state
St. Denis neighbors push back against business applying for liquor license
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Pulaski County business raises funds for Taylor Regional staff amid delayed paychecks
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Pink will host 2026 Tony Awards
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Natasha Lyonne speaks out after reportedly being removed from Delta flight
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Castlevania: Belmont's Curse Let's You Fight Joan Of Arc And Explore Notre Dame In New Trailer
Bonjour, evildoers
Commerce Department awards $8.3M for projects in Ohio, South Dakota and Colorado
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Mariano urges business leaders to make a deal on income tax cut
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Guillermo del Toro's masterpiece Pan's Labyrinth Returns in 3D for 20th Anniversary from Cineverse and Fathom Entertainment on October 9
/PRNewswire/ -- Cineverse (Nasdaq: CNVS), an entertainment technology company and studio, has announced that Fathom Entertainment, the leading specialty...
Guillermo del Toro's masterpiece Pan's Labyrinth Returns in 3D for 20th Anniversary from Cineverse and Fathom Entertainment on October 9
Cineverse (Nasdaq: CNVS), an entertainment technology company and studio, has announced that Fathom Entertainment, the leading specialty distributor of content to theatrical partners worldwide, will be the theatrical distribution partner for the re-release of Guillermo del Toro's master creation, Pan's Labyrinth. Guillermo del Toro's Pan Labyrinth 20th Anniversary will be released in theaters nationwide on October 9, 2026. The announcement was made ahead of CinemaCon, at which Cineverse will pro
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Castlevania headlines a big list of exciting indie game reveals
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2026 Masters TV schedule: Complete viewing guide with streaming coverage, how to watch live all week
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Pierce County city approves new youth sports leagues after 10+ years without
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As Trump throws lifeline to coal plants, critics warn of higher costs and health risks
WASHINGTON (AP) — Before Donald Trump returned to the White House, the Biden administration and many electric utilities were building a future dominated by renewable energy. They aimed to replace coal, slashing greenhouse gases and reducing air pollution that kills more than a thousand people ann...
Officials: Greenwood restaurant's business license suspended
FOX Carolina's Scottie Hunter has the details.
Another NHL Debut? Florida Panthers Call Up Rookie Defenseman
The Florida Panthers have had quite a few of their youngsters get their first taste of the NHL and, tonight […] This article: Another NHL Debut? Florida Panthers Call Up Rookie Defenseman originally appeared on Florida Hockey Now.
Local college sports recap
Rob Krone has highlights from local college sports action from Wednesday.
Exclusive: Chinese firm hired lobbyists with ties to Don Jr, then scored a win in Washington
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Vudu Sister explores vulnerability in a different lens With ‘Adynata’
PROVIDENCE – Art has the ability to be a powerful medium in an assortment of ways, and one of them is when the creator can channel what they’re feeling through