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Results for " predict " 3,109 found 🔀 AI-powered Shuffle

Kentucky Derby 2026 prediction: We asked AI to simulate the 152nd Run for the Roses. Here's who won — and it wasn't the opening favorite
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Apr 28 • 5:34 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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😐 Neutral (16%)
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66%
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CFTC sues Wisconsin over sports betting lawsuit targeting major prediction markets

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said it's suing to "reaffirm its exclusive jurisdiction."

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Apr 28 • 2:53 PM EDT • Sports • wisn.com
Revisiting Skarekrow’s Buffalo Bills 2026 NFL Draft predictions

Let’s check in and see how I did

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Apr 28 • 11:30 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Predicting consequences of new hepatitis B vaccine recs

New data on public trust in science, AI and mental health, and other news from Morning Rounds

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Apr 28 • 7:46 AM EDT • Health • statnews.com
🙂 Positive (35%)
wow
100%
These platforms allow users to speculate on sports. So why aren't they illegal in Wisconsin?

Last week, Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul filed a lawsuit against 5 different prediction market platforms alleging that they facilitate illegal sports betting in Wisconsin.

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Apr 28 • 6:00 AM EDT • Sports • wpr.org
2026 Kentucky Derby horses, odds, predictions, posts: Expert who hit 12 Derby-Oaks Doubles releases picks

When is the Kentucky Derby 2026? Jody Demling revealed his 2026 Kentucky Derby picks for the Run for the Roses on Saturday, May 2 at Churchill Downs

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Apr 27 • 9:00 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Scientists think they finally know why Neanderthals vanished

A new study suggests Neanderthals didn’t go extinct simply because of climate change or competition with Homo sapiens. Instead, the key difference may have been social connectivity—Homo sapiens formed stronger, more flexible networks that helped them survive environmental shocks. Neanderthals had connections too, but they were more fragile and regionally limited. This made them less resilient as conditions became increasingly unpredictable.

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Apr 27 • 8:00 PM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
Thunder vs. Suns odds, prediction, time: 2026 NBA playoff picks, April 27 best bets by proven model

SportsLine's proven model has revealed its Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Phoenix Suns best bets for the 2026 NBA playoffs

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Apr 27 • 7:00 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
This Is the Wrong Time for the Predictable Democrat Response to the Correspondents’ Dinner Shooting

A strong midterms push is the only way to start fixing the problems at the heart of this terrible act of gun violence.

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Apr 27 • 12:40 PM EDT • Politics • esquire.com
Scientists just captured a mysterious quantum “dance” inside superconductors

In a breakthrough experiment, scientists directly imaged how particles pair up in a system that mimics superconductors. Instead of behaving independently, the pairs moved in a synchronized, dance-like pattern—something never predicted before. This suggests a major gap in the classic theory of superconductivity.

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Apr 27 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
Thunder vs. Suns odds, prediction, time: 2026 NBA playoff picks, April 27 best bets by proven model

SportsLine's proven model has revealed its Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Phoenix Suns best bets for the 2026 NBA playoffs

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Apr 27 • 7:18 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Why 2 former Charlotte councilmen say I-77 tolls could decide 2027 mayor’s race

Tariq Bokhari and Larken Egleston predict several City Council members will run for mayor in 2027.

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Apr 27 • 5:00 AM EDT • Politics • charlotteobserver.com
Early attention deficit hyperactivity disorder prediction from longitudinal electronic health records

Nature Mental Health - Using electronic health records from over 140,000 children, the authors developed a neural network model that predicts attention deficit hyperactivity disorder diagnosis...

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Apr 26 • 8:00 PM EDT • Health • nature.com
For Oz Pearlman, a Correspondents’ Dinner Not Even He Could Have Predicted

The mentalist was the featured entertainer at the White House Correspondents’ dinner. He was in the middle of a trick when gunshots rang out.

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Apr 26 • 12:46 PM EDT • Politics • nytimes.com
Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers odds, picks and predictions

The Boston Celtics face the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 4 of their first-round playoff series from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Tip-off is at 7 p.m. ET

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Apr 26 • 12:13 PM EDT • Sports • courier-journal.com
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😐 Neutral (7%)
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39%
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Let's predict: Will Xbox return to "exclusive" games? Will Halo etc. continue to hit PlayStation?

The big conversation right now revolves around whether or not Xbox will return to "exclusive" games. It's a big decision, much bigger than perhaps most people realize.

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Apr 26 • 10:07 AM EDT • Technology • windowscentral.com
NBA player prop picks, odds, free best bets: Model backing LeBron James in 2026 NBA Playoffs on April 26

The SportsLine model has revealed top NBA props picks and NBA predictions for the NBA Playoffs on Sunday

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Apr 26 • 9:24 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Youtility Decision Science: $4.2 Million Raised To Build Behavioral AI Platform For Predicting Customer Decisions

Youtility Decision Science, a behavioral AI company focused on understanding and predicting consumer decision-making, announced that it has completed the second close of its seed funding round, bringing total capital raised to $4.2 million. The round was backed by a consortium of strategic investors, including Silver Falcon Capital, Fyllo, and National Media, along with additional industry investors and family offices.

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Apr 26 • 8:55 AM EDT • Science • pulse2.com
I Fell in Love With My Best Friend. I Could Never Have Predicted How It Ended.

Everyone used to think we were dating. I thought it was only a matter of time until we were.

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Apr 26 • 5:40 AM EDT • Technology • slate.com
As prediction markets explode in popularity, the regulator that polices them has been shrinking

While prediction markets are booming – allowing anyone to bet on nearly everything from sports to elections to who’s going to win season 50 of “Survivor” – the little-known federal agency that regulates the industry has shrunk to its smallest size in 15 years.

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Apr 26 • 5:00 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
2026 Kentucky Derby horses, odds, predictions, post draw: Expert who hit 12 Derby-Oaks Doubles reveals picks

When is the Kentucky Derby 2026? Jody Demling revealed his 2026 Kentucky Derby picks for the Run for the Roses on Saturday, May 2 at Churchill Downs

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Apr 25 • 9:09 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
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😐 Neutral (23%)
love
41%
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35%
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Nuggets vs. Timberwolves odds, prediction, time: 2026 NBA playoff picks, April 25 best bets by proven model

SportsLine's proven model has revealed its Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves best bets for the 2026 NBA playoffs

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Apr 25 • 6:08 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Panthers Day 3 mock draft: Predictions for 2026's final rounds

How will the Panthers close out their 2026 NFL Draft? Here are our predictions for Saturday.

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Apr 25 • 6:04 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Crypto’s Most Serious AI Use Case May Be Science

AI is moving deeper into labs and research workflows, while DeSci projects build funding, provenance, coordination and prediction layers around scientific work.

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Apr 25 • 5:02 AM EDT • Science • ccn.com
Soldier’s arrest comes after pattern of suspicious trades on prediction markets

After US troops captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January, the image of him handcuffed and blindfolded while wearing a Nike tracksuit wasn’t the only thing that went viral.

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Apr 24 • 8:05 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
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😐 Neutral (12%)
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38%
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As Sports Leagues Hitch to Polymarket, Scrutiny Grows

President Donald Trump criticized prediction markets this week after the DOJ charged a user who allegedly broke platform rules and U.S. laws.

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Apr 24 • 5:30 PM EDT • Sports • sportico.com
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😐 Neutral (18%)
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46%
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NBA player prop picks, odds, free best bets: Model backing Jayson Tatum in 2026 NBA Playoffs on April 24

The SportsLine model and team of experts reveal top NBA props picks and NBA predictions for the NBA Playoffs on Friday

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Apr 24 • 4:44 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Wisconsin DOJ sues Kalshi, other prediction markets for illegal online sports betting

Wisconsin is suing Kalshi, Robinhood, Coinbase, Polymarket and Crypto.com for allegedly illegally facilitating sports betting on their prediction market platforms, the state’s Department of Justice announced this week.

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Apr 24 • 3:02 PM EDT • Sports • wpr.org
Trump Says He Dislikes Prediction Markets. His Family Invests in Them.

The White House has warned staff not to wager on government decisions, but his family’s involvement with these firms undermines the president’s message.

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Apr 24 • 1:52 PM EDT • Politics • nytimes.com
Betis vs Real Madrid, 2026 La Liga: Predicted lineups

Real Madrid visit Sevilla to face Betis, and they’ll do so without key players Eder Militao and Arda Güler. Camavinga will likely replace the Turkish player, while Huijsen is expected to start alongside Rüdiger in the center of the defensive line. Real Madrid predicted XI: Lunin; Trent, Huijsen, Rüdiger, Carreras; Tchouaméni, Camavinga, Valverde, Bellingham; Mbappé […]

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Apr 24 • 3:51 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
‘I know what I’m capable of’: George Russell hopes 2026 won’t be his ‘one and only shot’ at F1 title

Formula One has in the year of 2026 has perhaps never been as unpredictable and unexpected as demonstrated by the opening throws of the still nascent season.

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Apr 24 • 3:15 AM EDT • Sports • cnn.com
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😐 Neutral (20%)
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37%
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2026 NFL Draft Round 1 analysis: Rams get Ty Simpson, BOLD day 2 predictions
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Apr 24 • 1:55 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Kalshi fines and suspends 3 congressional candidates for betting on their own elections

Three congressional candidates wagered on the outcome of their own elections on Kalshi, according to the prediction market, which said Wednesday that it fined and suspended the men from their platform for five years.

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Apr 23 • 7:05 PM EDT • Politics • pbs.org
🙂 Positive (35%)
Wisconsin DOJ sues online prediction markets, charging illegal sports betting

The lawsuits were filed as Wisconsin prepares to renegotiate tribal gaming compacts to include online sports betting under a new state law.

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Apr 23 • 5:11 PM EDT • Sports • wisconsinexaminer.com
Kalshi fines Texas GOP candidate for 'political insider trading'

A former Texas Republican primary candidate was fined and suspended for 'political insider trading' on a prediction market.

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Apr 23 • 3:22 PM EDT • Politics • usatoday.com
Bold predictions for Packers in the 2026 NFL draft

What will the Packers do in the 2026 NFL draft? Here are our bold predictions.

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Apr 23 • 2:32 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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😐 Neutral (11%)
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NFL Draft day is here: Mike Vrabel to miss final four rounds, plus final mocks and bold predictions

Here's everything you need to know about the NFL for April 23

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Apr 23 • 1:03 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
NFL mock draft 2026: We prompted AI to predict the 1st round. Here are its picks
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Apr 23 • 12:21 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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😐 Neutral (23%)
wow
60%
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40%
‘FBoy Island’ star’s bet on his own Senate bid exposes perils of Kalshi

A former reality TV contestant turned candidate in Virginia and two U.S. House hopefuls in Texas and Minnesota have been banned from the prediction market for five years.

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Apr 23 • 12:14 PM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Trump's threats against Iran are a boon for prediction markets, including some backed by his son

Traders flocked to Polymarket this month to bet on whether Trump really was going bomb Iran back to the Stone Age or just call a ceasefire.

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Apr 23 • 12:10 PM EDT • Politics • pbs.org
2026 NFL Draft Gambo 5: Predicting the Cardinals' pick

John Gambadoro names a group of five players, and he guarantees one of them will be picked by the Arizona Cardinals if they stay put at No. 3.

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Apr 23 • 11:54 AM EDT • Sports • arizonasports.com
Kalshi Bans And Fines Three Politicians For Placing Bets On Their Own Races

The prediction market issued fines and five-year bans for political candidates in Minnesota, Virginia and Texas.

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Apr 23 • 9:43 AM EDT • Politics • forbes.com
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😐 Neutral (16%)
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38%
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Kalshi fines 3 congressional candidates for wagering on their own elections

It is the latest high-profile case of alleged insider trading on prediction markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Apr 23 • 9:20 AM EDT • Politics • spectrumlocalnews.com
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😐 Neutral (22%)
angry
62%
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Five bold predictions for the 2026 NFL Draft: Cowboys make two first-round trades, Jeremiyah Love falls

Now that the long-awaited NFL Draft is finally here, let's dive into some first-round predictions

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Apr 23 • 9:17 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
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😐 Neutral (13%)
wow
45%
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29%
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26%
Youtility Decision Science Raises Seed Funding for Decision Science Platform That Predicts Customer Behavior

Strategic investment from a consortium including Silver Falcon Capital, Fyllo and National Media supports development of behavioral AI technology designed to help companies understand and predict customer decisionsRICHMOND, Va. and LONDON, April 23, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Youtility, a pioneer in behavioral AI for consumer engagement focused on why consumers make decisions, today announced the second close of its seed round, bringing total funding to $4.2M. The round was supported by a consorti

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Apr 23 • 8:30 AM EDT • Science • finance.yahoo.com
NFL insider predicts Anthony Richardson gets traded to the Steelers

Kay Adams was right on the money predicting Dexter Lawrence getting traded to the Bengals… does lightning strike twice with her prediction of the Steelers getting Anthony Richardson?

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Apr 23 • 7:44 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
States are clamping down on prediction market insider trading

In the last few weeks, three governors have signed executive orders targeting potential insider trading by state employees on prediction markets.

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Apr 23 • 4:31 AM EDT • Business • businessinsider.com
Kalshi fines & suspends 3 political candidates for betting on their own campaigns

The prediction market platform Kalshi is cracking down on insider trading by political candidates. On Wednesday.

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Apr 22 • 9:35 PM EDT • Politics • komonews.com
Kalshi suspends three politicians from platform

The prediction market company Kalshi has suspended three politicians for allegedly betting on their own political campaigns. They are banned from the platform for five years. NBC News’ Brian Cheung has more on the story.

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Apr 22 • 7:23 PM EDT • Politics • nbcnews.com
High-Signal Publisher
Kalshi Fines and Suspends 3 Political Candidates for Betting on Their Races

The prediction market said the candidates violated new rules as it faces growing scrutiny from lawmakers and regulators over how political betting is policed.

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Apr 22 • 6:43 PM EDT • Politics • nytimes.com
Predictions Marketplace Fines Three Candidates for ‘Political Insider Trading’

One congressional hopeful said he had no plans to pay the fine: “I’ll take them to court if I have to.”

wsj.com logo
Apr 22 • 6:29 PM EDT • Politics • wsj.com
Kalshi Bans And Fines Three Politicians For Placing Bets On Their Own Races

The prediction market issued fines and five-year bans for political candidates in Minnesota, Virginia and Texas.

forbes.com logo
Apr 22 • 5:44 PM EDT • Politics • forbes.com
Kalshi suspends 3 political candidates for betting on own races

Kalshi has suspended three political candidates for betting on their own races, the prediction market platform announced Wednesday. Minnesota congressional candidate and state Sen. Matt Klein (D) a…

thehill.com logo
Apr 22 • 5:03 PM EDT • Politics • thehill.com
Kalshi suspends 3 U.S. congressional candidates for ‘political insider trading’

WASHINGTON >> Prediction markets platform Kalshi said today it has suspended three U.S. congressional candidates for “political insider trading,” building on its efforts to block politicians and athletes from betting on contests in which they are involved.

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Apr 22 • 4:30 PM EDT • Politics • staradvertiser.com
Kalshi prediction site suspends three political candidates for betting on their own races

The prediction market suspended them from its platform on Wednesday for “political insider trading” after allegedly betting on their own campaigns.

cnn.com logo
Apr 22 • 2:32 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
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😐 Neutral (5%)
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37%
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37%
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Hochul order bars state workers from insider trading on prediction markets

The governor said the order forbids covered state officers and employees from using confidential information acquired in the course of their official duties to further their personal financial interests through these markets.

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Apr 22 • 1:47 PM EDT • Politics • spectrumlocalnews.com
New York sues Coinbase and Gemini, seeking to halt unlicensed prediction market businesses

Both companies began as cryptocurrency trading platforms before branching into the prediction space.

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Apr 21 • 5:56 PM EDT • Business • ocregister.com
New York sues Coinbase and Gemini, seeking to halt unlicensed prediction market businesses

New York is suing Coinbase and Gemini over unregulated and unlicensed prediction market platforms that the state contends are illegal gambling operations.

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Apr 21 • 4:34 PM EDT • Business • news4jax.com
Yankees vs. Red Sox series preview: What to know as AL East rivalry opens in 2026, plus a prediction

Luis Gil and Connelly Early kick off the three-game set on Tuesday in Boston

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Apr 21 • 12:23 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Chris 'The Bear' Fallica's Best Bet, Prediction for NFL Draft Round 1

Chris "The Bear" Fallica is back with a best bet for the Over/Under of wide receivers to get selected in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft.

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Apr 21 • 11:43 AM EDT • Sports • foxsports.com
Shaky political science: using "simulated" elections over real-world elections

[Dear DSOS readers – this article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in early December, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting. We found that many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data, and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first three articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report, the second one analyzing a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report, and a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research]. In this fourth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we shine a spotlight on seven studies that were web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group (the ERRG is an ad hoc committee headed by New America’s Political Reform Program and joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Unite America Institute and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law). This research consortium has been led by Lee Drutman, senior fellow with New America’s Political Reform Program. These seven studies are simply not credible from any objective standard about how political “science” is supposed to illuminate our understanding of either ranked choice voting or politics in general. The feature that six of these seven studies have in common is that they all used surveys – artificial, simulated elections -- to attempt to say something cogent or interesting about ranked choice voting (RCV) elections. None of them used real world data from actual RCV elections – either the 1000+ elections in the US or the many thousands of elections from places like Australia, Ireland and elsewhere where RCV has been used for 100 years. While a few of these studies conclude with some mixed positives about RCV, our analysis here is content neutral. The idea that, with a political reform like RCV, you can ask respondents in a mock, artificial election to vote with that method, with only the barest of explanation about how RCV works or its likely impacts (i.e. no spoiler candidates, majority winners, voters liberated to pick their favorite candidates, coalition-building), and then ask them their thoughts/reactions about voting in that system, with fake candidates and no real campaigning, no real exposure to an actual election or actual candidates, rests on some very puzzling assumptions. The findings of these seven studies actually are contradicted by the findings from many other studies based on real-world RCV elections. These New America studies also failed to list the real-world RCV studies in their own citations, instead including those studies that reinforced their conclusions. The seven studies featured in this article were chosen because they form a cohesive cohort which precisely illustrates one of the main points of our research paper, namely that using surveys, i.e. artificial elections, or mathematical/theoretical models, instead of real-world data, is in fact “shaky political science.” Below are summaries of our analysis of five of the seven New America studies. You can read our complete analysis of all seven studies at our paper, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting.” Choosing to “Vote As Usual” by Andre Blais, Carolina Plescia, and Semra Sevi. New America. (Blais et al., 2021). This study, web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group, used two surveys in which respondents completed ballots for simulated elections using plurality, approval, RCV and point (Score) voting. In both cases the authors provided the respondents with only minimal explanation of each method. For example, the entire explanation for RCV was “For this vote, rank the candidates from your first to your last choice (you do not need to rank them all). This is called the ranked vote.” That’s it. The study did not provide any context or explanation to survey respondents about why she/he might want to rank multiple candidates. Participants were not even told that ballots would be tabulated using an “instant” runoff, not to mention any description of RCVs ability to eliminate the spoiler effect or liberate voters to rank their favorite candidates without fear of helping the “greater evil” candidate to win. That’s like taking an iPhone back in time to 1970 and asking someone if they like it better than their rotary phone without explaining how it works. Their first survey targeted states that held 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and used the real candidates’ names in the survey; the second survey used fictitious candidates. In other words, they surveyed respondents who had only ever participated in plurality elections, had no history or background with using RCV or any of the other methods, had no clue about its likely impacts, and did not communicate how the alternative methods would be counted, and then asked them: “How satisfied are you with using each system?” Predictably, the winner was plurality elections, the system used for president, Congress, gubernatorial and state legislative elections – in other words, the method they have been using, year after year, all their voting lives. With so little explanation of RCV and its impacts, this study is simply not credible in discovering anything useful about real-world RCV elections. It merely shows that a basic voter education campaign is needed when adopting a new election system. Additionally, the result contradicts many other post-election surveys following real RCV elections, asking opinions from voters who had just participated in a RCV election, that showed a great deal of satisfaction with RCV (see details on that in Studies 22-25 in our paper, as well as the four studies cited in the review for Study 28). Share Other studies on “satisfaction” and “understanding” make similar mistakes, in terms of basing their surveys on inadequate explanation to respondents and lack of education about context. How could any survey ever hope to measure accurately, in essence simulate a real-world election, without actual campaigning candidates, the media writing about those candidates, organizations endorsing candidates and voters being inundated with crucial information? More than anything, what these “studies” based on surveys show is that if you ask voters about something they don’t know very much about, and fail to adequately educate them, their responses will unsurprisingly reflect their confusion. Equally puzzling is that New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group, headed by political scientist Lee Drutman, found this to be a credible enough study that they not only published it but highlighted it in Drutman’s own discussion of research related to ranked choice voting. This pattern was repeated in study after study featured by New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group. For example in Ranked-Choice Voting and Political Expression: Voter Guides Narrow the Gap between Informed and Uninformed Citizens by Cheryl Boudreau, Jonathan Colner, and Scott MacKenzie, the researchers based their analysis on a survey which found that respondents who were asked to vote in a simulated RCV election, with minimal explanation of RCV or how it works, displayed less evidence of being informed about how to use RCV effectively, with the least informed voters ranking fewer candidates. As pointed out under the study above, in a real election voters are informed by a wide variety of methods, including public education by the election administration, by interested political groups, the media, and the candidates themselves who benefit from voters being aware of how to vote in the new system. In Support for Ranked-Choice Voting across Race and Partisanship by Joseph Anthony, David C. Kimball, Jack Santucci and Jamil Scott, the researchers used respondents from different parties and races voting in simulated plurality and RCV elections, who indicated their satisfaction with each voting method. Instead of using real world election results, the authors fell back on the easy, armchair and less reliable academic research methodology of making up mock elections. As with the other studies, little explanation was given of how RCV works or what its implications might be (electing majority winners or eliminating spoilers, for example). Unsurprisingly, this study found that respondents were not very satisfied with RCV. However, when the authors added an explanation that RCV has a tendency to elect more women and people of color, they found that this greater explanation increased the preference for RCV. The more voters were familiar with it, and the more they understood potential positive impacts – surprise! -- the more they were open to switching away from the status quo. Of note, the results from this study are thoroughly contradicted by a number of other studies whose data was obtained from real RCV elections with real voters. Those studies show a great deal of satisfaction with RCV. More “fake election” research An interesting wrinkle on this “research by fake elections” approach, which only served to illustrate how unreliable such “research” can become, was taken in Ranked-Choice Voting, Runoff, and Democracy: Insights from Maine and Other U.S. States by Joseph Cerrone and Cynthia McClintock_,_ also web-hosted and funded by New America’s ERRG. It gets high marks for creativity, but an eye-roll for thinking this could possibly add anything meaningful to our understanding of real world RCV elections. This study tried to determine whether RCV, plurality or two-round runoff elections provided greater voter satisfaction and acceptance of election results. To determine that, the authors conducted a survey asking if voters were satisfied with a fictional newspaper report of an election, with three different versions given to respondents – plurality, runoff and RCV, with variations of Republican/Democrat winners and variations of “come-from-behind” winners,” i.e. candidates not initially in first place but who win the “runoff.” Again, a minimal explanation of RCV or how it works was given, and the survey showed that respondents had the greatest unfamiliarity with RCV than the other methods. The unsurprising result? Respondents were much more satisfied with “come-from-behind” victories in a traditional two-round runoff election than in RCV, even though RCV is also a runoff system but with a single round of counting. Interestingly, the dissatisfaction with RCV disappeared for those who were more familiar with RCV. In fact, among those respondents who were “very familiar” with RCV, they were equally satisfied with RCV, runoff and plurality. Surprise, surprise. Again, what this study revealed, more than anything, is not only the inadequacy of the explanation for RCV given by the authors of this study, but the failure of the research format itself, thinking that such an artificial mock election could somehow simulate what actually happens in the real world in a real RCV election. Those four studies reviewed above are fitting examples of inadequate and shaky political “science.” Other studies reviewed in our paper from the New America/Electoral Reform Research Group cohort which also used mock elections included: Ranked-Choice Voting is an Acquired Taste by Joseph Anthony and David C. Kimball. New America. (Anthony et al., 2021). Ranked-Choice Voting is No Refuge for Extreme Candidates by Melissa Baker. New America. (Baker, 2021). Also included in this New America cohort is Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Racial Polarization? by Yuki Atsusaka and Theodore Landsman, which actually did use real-world election results data but applied an odd and unconventional methodology to the data which relied on shaky assumptions and non-real-world scenarios that were too divorced from reality. To determine levels of “racially polarized voting,” the researchers imagined “ethnic parties,” by which they mean political parties for each ethnic group, which was especially odd since the election data they were using came from nonpartisan RCV races. But then they made an even odder assumption, namely that since race and ethnic characteristics of studied voters were not available, the authors tried to infer that information based on who voters selected and the racial make-up of voters in each district. This amounted to little more than vague and ambiguous guesswork dressed up with a bunch of mathematical equations used to give it a veneer of scientific appearance. Indeed, it seemed to assume racial polarization in order to prove racial polarization. Based on this questionable methodology, the authors concluded that RCV doesn’t reduce racial polarization. But the premise of this study missed an obvious reality: since RCV incentivizes more candidates to run and can result in more diverse fields of candidates, one would expect more racially-polarized voting in voters’ top rankings, not less, because more voters would have someone on that ballot who represents their racial or ethnic identity and more freedom to vote for their real first choice. By encouraging more diverse candidates and eliminating the spoiler effect, RCV facilitates voting for a favorite candidate of your own race and then selecting a second choice with the best likelihood of winning. The real measure is what voters do with their additional rankings – do they consider other candidates and vote “for the best of the rest”? This study didn’t tell us anything useful about that. But readily available data shows this is common in real RCV elections, and candidates act on this knowledge by engaging with voters outside their racial group. So the authors of this study failed to consider or account for what actually happens in real-world elections, and their conclusions are tainted by this failure. New America has contributed a great deal over the past 2.5 decades to our understanding of many policy areas, including politics and political reform (full disclosure: Steven Hill, one of the authors of this article and of the “Shaky Political Science” research paper and series, is a former senior fellow and former director of New America’s political reform program, 2005-2010). So it was especially disappointing that New America funded and published such a large batch of dubious studies about ranked choice voting. The stated praiseworthy goal of its Electoral Reform Research Group was to inspire new academic research about ranked choice voting that would shed light and help the public better understand the impacts of RCV. Instead, the ERRG research did just the opposite. It produced dubious research that created more confusion and misinformation. In so doing, New America’s political reform program contributed to “shaky political science.” Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS, a reader-supported digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe

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Apr 21 • 9:31 AM EDT • Science • democracysos.substack.com
Try This 1 Movement To Predict How Mobile You'll Be as You Age

In TODAY.com's Expert Tip of the Day, a trainer reveals how to assess your mobility and shares tips for staying mobile and strong as you age.

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Apr 21 • 8:00 AM EDT • Health • today.com
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Volcanoes Send Tiny Warning Signals Before Eruptions. These Scientists Are Decoding Them

The team behind "Jerk," a novel tool that predicted eruptions with 92% accuracy for a French volcano, discusses its work and implications.

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Apr 21 • 6:00 AM EDT • Science • gizmodo.com
Who will the Baltimore Ravens draft? WJZ's Sports Team predicts their first-round pick.
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Apr 20 • 10:54 PM EDT • Sports • cbsnews.com
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The Science of piRNA and Predicting Death With a Blood Test

A new study analyzed piRNA — first discovered in 2006 — as a strong predictor of short-term survival in older patients. It could one day be a simple blood test.

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Apr 20 • 8:00 PM EDT • Science • medscape.com
NFL mock draft roundup: Experts predict first round after Dexter Lawrence trade

The Dexter Lawrence trade has shaken up the 2026 NFL Draft. Here's how experts see the draft unfolding in wake of that blockbuster deal.

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Apr 20 • 4:00 PM EDT • Sports • usatoday.com
Predicting every game left in the Premier League title: How Manchester City will edge out Arsenal by a goal

If the two teams are tied on points, goal difference could decide the title, so the score of every match matters

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Apr 20 • 2:42 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
‘Maximum Pleasure Guaranteed’: Everything We Know About Tatiana Maslany’s New Show

Tatiana Maslany, Jake Johnson, and Murray Bartlett star in an unpredictable, darkly comedic thriller.

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Apr 20 • 11:16 AM EDT • Entertainment • cbs19news.com
2026 NFL mock draft: 32 reporters make their first-round picks

Reporters who cover their teams on a daily basis predict how the first round of the 2026 NFL draft will unfold in The Times’ beat writers' mock draft.

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Apr 20 • 11:10 AM EDT • Sports • latimes.com
Trump Makes a Bold Prediction on Gas Prices

President Trump contradicted his own energy secretary and projected optimism about a crisis he created.

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Apr 20 • 10:56 AM EDT • Politics • nymag.com
JPMorganChase Partners With Sports Legends to Help Athletes Master Their Money

Athletes’ careers are unpredictable. Less than 2% of NCAA college athletes turn professional and many professional athletes retire before

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Apr 20 • 8:02 AM EDT • Sports • mississippitoday.org
Having more kids associated with reduced risk of stroke and brain damage, research co-led by UT Health San Antonio shows - UT Health San Antonio

Number of live births could be an important predictive factor Contact: Steven Lee, (210) 450-3823, lees22@uthscsa.edu SAN ANTONIO, April 20, 2026 – While some say having lots of kids can make you lose your faculties, a new study suggests otherwise. Research co-led by UT Health San Antonio, the academic health center of The University of […]

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Apr 20 • 7:55 AM EDT • Health • news.uthscsa.edu
2026 NFL Draft: Seven-round full mock draft picks for every team

Predicting every pick of the 2026 NFL Draft and 32 teams' paths to success.

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Apr 20 • 7:00 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
M&C Saatchi predicts hit to sports and entertainment arms from Iran conflict

The advertising giant held off from handing shareholders a dividend as it battles ‘tough’ macroeconomic conditions.

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Apr 20 • 6:29 AM EDT • Entertainment • uk.finance.yahoo.com
Plaee Expands Its Focus as Prediction Markets Gain Momentum

Photo Courtesy of Unsplash.comLIMASSOL, Cyprus, April 20, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Plaee, a business-to-business (B2B) platform purpose-built fo...

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Apr 20 • 5:28 AM EDT • Business • markets.businessinsider.com
UK-listed Plus500's customer income surges as US business grows

Plus500 on Monday posted a surge in customer income in the first quarter ​as it expanded into U.S. consumer prediction ‌markets and heightened market volatility drove demand across its global trading platforms.

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Apr 20 • 2:58 AM EDT • Business • reuters.com
Kalshi’s fight over sports betting is hurtling towards the Supreme Court—and the future of gambling is at stake

Kalshi is in a make-or-break fight to preserve a lucrative new prediction-markets industry expected to grow to over $200 billion this year.

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Apr 20 • 2:55 AM EDT • Sports • fortune.com
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2026 NFL mock draft: Trades galore as Patrick Mahomes gets a bodyguard, Cowboys find new face of their defense

Former NFL CB and two-time Super Bowl champion Bryant McFadden predicts all 32 first-round picks

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Apr 19 • 3:17 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Tribes warn CFTC move on sports prediction markets would undermine gaming compacts

Tribal leaders warn a potential CFTC move to allow sports prediction markets could bypass gaming laws, threaten compacts and shift billions in revenue.

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Apr 19 • 2:32 PM EDT • Sports • tribalbusinessnews.com
Gaming Commission Chair Maynard goes 'On the Record' about sports betting, prediction markets

Massachusetts Gaming Commission Chair Jordan Maynard joined WCVB's "On the Record" to discuss sports betting licenses, online casino gaming and the growing debate over prediction markets.

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Apr 19 • 11:30 AM EDT • Sports • wcvb.com
Independent bookstores make quiet comeback as big chains dominate retail

About 422 indie bookshops opened in 2025, up 31%, defying predictions of retail consolidation

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Apr 19 • 10:00 AM EDT • Business • theguardian.com
2026 AdventHealth 400 predictions, odds, start time: NASCAR at Kansas picks, best bets by advanced model

Best bets for NASCAR at Kansas as the AdventHealth 400 unfolds on Sunday with Tyler Reddick atop the Cup Series standings

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Apr 19 • 8:28 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Curing U.S. Health Care, Part I

In 2008, much to their own surprise, leading Democrats unified around a program of major health care reform. Policy wonks had spent years developing the concepts behind what eventually became Obamacare; big Democratic victories in the 2006 midterms and the prospect of controlling both Congress and the presidency made it possible to imagine turning those ideas into reality. During the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama advocated similar plans, based on those ideas, for expanding insurance coverage. And it happened! The Affordable Care Act was enacted in 2010. When it was fully implemented in 2014, millions of Americans got health insurance: Impressive as the raw numbers are, they don’t tell the whole story. Before the ACA, even upper-middle-class Americans often found it impossible to get health insurance if they had pre-existing medical conditions. Many Americans were trapped in jobs they wanted to leave but couldn’t for fear of losing their employment-based coverage. Meanwhile, dire predictions from the usual suspects about runaway costs proved wrong. In fact, overall U.S. medical spending has grown much more slowly since the ACA was enacted than before. But the U.S., alone among advanced nations, still falls far short of providing universal health care. As you can see from the chart above, 8 percent of the population was still uninsured in 2024, a number that is set to rise over the next two years as a result of Republican policies. True, many of the uninsured in 2024 were undocumented immigrants, who we don’t try to cover. But there are still a lot of uninsured. Moreover, a significant number of Americans who have health insurance are in fact underinsured. As a result, they are at risk of incurring devastating healthcare costs and are sometimes forced to forgo needed care. This number is set to rise sharply in the next two years as a result of Republican policies adopted under Donald Trump. And not only is the U.S. unique among advanced countries in its under-provision of health care coverage, it also incurs by far the world’s highest healthcare costs per capita. So now may well be a good time to get behind a new push for major health reform — an effort, if you like, to finish the job begun under Obama. Today’s primer is devoted to the economics of health reform. During his failed effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act, Donald Trump famously complained, “Nobody knew healthcare could be so complicated.” Actually, we did know — and it’s not that complicated. Health economists understand the principles very well. And because health policy varies greatly among advanced nations, we know a lot about what works and what doesn’t. This will be the first in a series about health reform. Beyond the paywall I’ll address the following: 1. Why markets can’t be trusted to deliver healthcare 2. Routes to universal healthcare 3. What works? In a follow-up post I’ll discuss the pros and cons of different approaches, and possible paths forward for the United States.

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Apr 19 • 6:31 AM EDT • Health • paulkrugman.substack.com
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Juventus vs Bologna – Predicted lineup and team news

Juventus will aim to strengthen their hold on a top-four spot when they face Bologna at the Allianz Stadium on Sunday in Serie A.The Turin side has an impressive record in this fixture, going unbeaten...

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Apr 19 • 3:50 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
FanDuel wants to carve a sports niche in the controversial prediction market business

FanDuel has built a large and growing business with its sports betting app, becoming the largest online sportsbook in the United States. But online sports gambling remains illegal in many states, which is why it’s getting into the booming — and controversial — prediction market business.

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Apr 19 • 3:00 AM EDT • Sports • cnn.com
FanDuel wants to carve a sports niche in the controversial prediction market business

FanDuel has built a large and growing business with its sports betting app, becoming the largest online sportsbook in the United States. But online sports gambling remains illegal in many states, which is why it’s getting into the booming — and controversial — prediction market business.

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Apr 19 • 3:00 AM EDT • Business • cnn.com
Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart – Predicted lineup and team news

Bayern Munich hosts VfB Stuttgart at the Allianz Arena on Sunday in their Bundesliga matchday 30 fixture, with the title now within touching distance.Vincent Kompany’s side needs just a single point...

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Apr 19 • 1:40 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Nottingham Forest vs Burnley – Predicted lineup and team news

Nottingham Forest host Burnley today, seeking to translate their European momentum into vital Premier League points.The Tricky Trees are currently riding an emotional high after reaching the Europa Le...

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Apr 19 • 1:40 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres odds, picks and predictions

The Boston Bruins and the Buffalo Sabres play Game 1 of their best-of-7, first-round series Sunday in Buffalo, New York. Puck drop is at 7:30 p.m. ET.

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Apr 19 • 12:05 AM EDT • Sports • burlingtonfreepress.com
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No one predicted this: a human-made giant is shifting Earth’s poles - Futura-Sciences

Dams: Humanity’s Giant Footprint on Earth There are so many ways that human activity shapes our environment—sometimes a little, sometimes a lot. Today, scientists are adding yet another surprising chapter to that story. Between 1835 and 2011, humanity built close to 7,000 dams worldwide. These structures are so massive, they...

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Apr 18 • 1:30 PM EDT • Science • futura-sciences.com
2026 NBA bracket odds, predictions, best bets: NBA playoff picks by expert on 101-60 run

SportsLine's Mike Barner reveals his NBA bracket picks and series predictions for the 2026 NBA playoffs

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Apr 18 • 10:49 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
NBA player prop picks, odds, free best bets: Model includes LeBron James for NBA Playoffs on April 18

The SportsLine model and team of experts reveal top NBA props picks and NBA predictions for the NBA Playoffs on Saturday

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Apr 18 • 9:21 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Lions mock draft roundup: Final predictions from 72 experts

Taking a closer look at the prospects from the 2026 NFL Draft that have been projected to the Lions over the past week.

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Apr 18 • 8:30 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
UFC Winnipeg predictions

Gilbert Burns looks to turn back the clock against Mike Malott

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Apr 18 • 8:00 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: Is Portland ready for Wemby? Series keys, schedule and prediction
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Apr 17 • 1:04 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Ohio State offensive line target set to announce commitment today

Ohio State will find out today if a crystal ball prediction to land four-star lineman Jimmy Kalis comes true.

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Apr 17 • 11:54 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
76ers vs. Celtics: Will Boston be challenged in Round 1? Series keys, schedule and prediction
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Apr 17 • 10:13 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
NSWCPD Applies AI and Machine Learning to Predictive Machinery Health

In a soundproof chamber at the Naval Surface Warfare Center, Philadelphia Division (NSWCPD), a steel-gray air compressor hums as engineers test an experimental machine learning model designed to detect early signs of failure through vibration analysis. The effort, part of NSWCPD’s growing portfolio of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) projects, shows early promise for potential future Navy use.

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Apr 17 • 8:00 AM EDT • Health • dvidshub.net
Trump touts tax tips policy in Vegas, says Iran war is going 'swimmingly'

President Trump used a rare visit to Las Vegas to tout his no tax on tips policy, and also gave promising predictions on the Iran war.

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Apr 16 • 9:32 PM EDT • Politics • usatoday.com
UVA Center for Politics predicts narrow passage of redistricting referendum

The UVA Center for Politics predicts Virginians will pass the redistricting referendum.

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Apr 16 • 5:33 PM EDT • Politics • 29news.com