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For one small business, AI was key to a quick start and expansion
Here Now Health isn't an AI-based company, but its quick path from an idea in founder Michelle Turner's mind to an operating mental health platform for foster children relied deeply on the technology now restructuring the U.S. economy. Working from her Virginia Beach home, she used AI tools to school herself in startup culture, create a business plan and fine-tune a presentation for early-stage investors. Funding began to flow, and the company, launched in January 2025, now has 16 employees and is certified in three states to provide Medicaid-funded mental health counseling for children entering the foster system, a gap in care she identified through her own experience as a foster parent.
Should Jaguars Add This Top-100 Player in Free Agency?
With Devin Lloyd gone, Jacksonville faces a massive void at linebacker. Future Hall of Famer Bobby Wagner offers the elite production and veteran leadership needed to anchor this defense.
‘Moral and political blindness’: EU lawmaker savages FIFA over Russia - Live Updates
Lithuanian MEP Petras Auštrevičius explained why FIFA’s decision to allow Russia to play in the upcoming U-15 World Cup is bad news.
Reflecting On Data & Business Process Services Stocks’ Q1 Earnings: Verisk (NASDAQ:VRSK)
Earnings results often indicate what direction a company will take in the months ahead. With Q1 behind us, let’s have a look at Verisk (NASDAQ:VRSK) and its peers.
Oklahoma fireworks stand sees rush at family business ahead of Fourth of July
Families are making their final preparations to celebrate America's 250th birthday on the Fourth of July.
Rich Paul lists Knicks, 76ers, Celtics and many others as potential teams LeBron James could join
Cyberpunk 2077 passes another extraordinary sales milestone as CD Projekt Red hails "the incredible, lasting strength" of the game
Yes, the launch was bad, but the success of CDPR's retro-futuristic RPG is undeniable.
Is AI A Threat To Healthcare Jobs? Which Jobs Are And Aren’t At Risk
Will AI replace healthcare jobs? Not exactly. Learn which roles face the greatest disruption, which remain resilient, and how the workforce is evolving.
My 11-year-old got me to play the Lotto; we won enough for ice cream
My son asked me to play the Lotto during some bad luck. The clerk drew a ticket with our lucky numbers, and we won enough for a family treat.
Wisconsin's most underrated players in EA Sports College Football 27
A pair of Wisconsin Badgers defensive stars seem to be underrated in the new EA Sports College Football 27 video game.
Dillon Brooks: "My villain goal would probably be not …
Dillon Brooks: "My villain goal would probably be not …
Brad Stevens Messed Up Badly With Awful Jaylen Brown Trade
What were the Boston Celtics thinking? What was going through team president Brad Stevens' mind when he decided to trade Jaylen Brown to the Philadelphia 76ers? On July 1, the internet broke when ESPN's Shams Charania revealed that Brown -- the subject of trade rumors ever since the Celtics were ...
Steelers given shockingly bad grade after big offseason
This ESPN analyst is not a fan of what the Steelers did this offseason.
Badgers key 2027 commit took official visit to SEC school
The Badgers will be fighting for one of their top commits throughout the Fall.
Croatia criticised for ‘unambitious’ changes to 2022 science law
Croatia’s science ministry has been accused of a lack of ambition, and even incompetence, over proposed changes to the country’s 2022 science law. Critics say an opportunity has been missed to fix wider shortcomings in the research and universities system.“This law, like all the previous ones, will not significantly change the current state of science in Croatia,” Vlatko Silobrčić, a member of the Croatian Academy of Sciences, told Science Business. “A small shift here and there will not have a significant impact.”The 2022 law introduced multi-year block grant financing of research, based on results, and changes intended to boost employment and career progression for researchers and lecturers. But implementation of the law has been uneven. “It became apparent that certain of its provisions were subject to different interpretations by higher education institutions and scientific institutes,” the science ministry said in its proposal for change. “This caused legal uncertainty in the system, administrative difficulties in implementation and, in certain cases, unequal treatment of teachers, scientists and students.”Most of the proposed amendments deal with technicalities in hiring and promoting staff, such as extending the committee deadlines from 60 to 90 days, or allowing applicants to cite all of their achievements and not only those since their last appointment.Both the ministry and Croatian media highlighted changes that would raise the retirement age from 65 to 67 years and allow part-time students 15 year rather than 10 years to finish their studies.The change to retirement age has been criticised for reinforcing a weakness in the system. According to Matko Marušić, professor emeritus at the University of Split, this will “allow unproductive teachers to advance and work longer, while hindering and discouraging productive ones.”A longtime campaigner for excellence-based meritocracy, he sees little hope in the new legislation. “I am not optimistic that things will improve,” he told Science Business. “As recent changes to the law in Croatia show, the legal framework is becoming increasingly hypocritical and harmful.”For Marušić, who analyses Croatia's university system in a recently published book, the situation is “unfavourable and constantly deteriorating” due to the criteria used for academic advancement.“The key criterion for advancement should be scientific productivity,” he said. “In Croatia [. . .] scientific criteria are increasingly lowered, and ineffective and absurd criteria such as waiting times for promotion and age limits for remaining in a job are promoted.” He would also like to see better criteria for the quality of teaching at universities. “In practice, teaching is not monitored or evaluated,” he said, estimating that up to a third of teaching simply does not take place. “Under the guise of university autonomy and bad laws, universities and faculties are allowed to earn additional money by increasing enrolment quotas that have nothing to do with the needs of the labour market.” Lack of ambitionDora Kršul, a reporter at Telegram.hr who covers science policy in Croatia, finds the rationale for changes “bizarre.” “The ministry responsible for supervising the uniform application of the law is changing the law because it is being implemented unevenly,” she said. “This primarily speaks to the power relationship in the sphere of science and higher education in Croatia, that is, the question arises as to who actually manages this system.”Rather than raising quality, she continued, the changes appear to be designed to help vocational and applied universities who have not been complying with the law.The Independent Union of Research and Higher Education Employees of Croatia said that the changes were “unambitious” and represent a missed opportunity for more important changes. “We think some of the changes are even negative,” it said in its statement on June 25. One of these is introduction of an “assistant” job title that allows people to be hired only for the duration of a project. Related articles: Elections to top science bodies test Croatia’s gender equality in researchSlovakia revises R&D approach to increase focus on competitivenessLatvia pilots citizen engagement in research grant evaluationsThe union’s president, Tvrtko Smital, who was part of the 15-member working group tasked with drafting the changes, told the local media there was a “worrying lack of ambition” in the process, and “lack of competence” in terms of research experience and understanding the problems in the system.“There is no clear will to deal with the problems,” said Smital, an assistant professor of marine and environmental sciences at the Ruđer Bošković Institute in Zagreb. “It’s a combination of unambitiousness and incompetence,” he went on, expressing his “deep frustration” with the situation. “There is no strategy, no clear thinking, and money is not being spent optimally.”Croatia’s science ministry has not responded to requests for comment.
The Fat ‘Upgrade’ A Doctor Recommends To Lower Bad Cholesterol
In TODAY.com’s Expert Tip of the Day, a doctor explains why we need fat and how to choose the best type for heart health.
iPhone Photography Awards Highlight Best Images of 2026
For the last 19 years, the iPhone Photography Awards (IPPA) has selected the best photographs captured with an iPhone, and the 2026 award winners were announced today. The IPPA 2026 Grand Prize image features a volcano dramatically erupting in the Cayman Islands, with the photo shot by Robyn Jensen on an iPhone 15 Pro. The Gold Prize image by Gellért Gombai features two children napping on grass in the shadow of a badminton racket, with the photo shot in black and white using an iPhone X.
2026 World Cup: USMNT striker Folarin Balogun shown red card in second half after first-half goal
Cheers and jeers for mayor’s reversal on NYPD headcount
A plan to increase NYPD headcount by 580 officers was scrapped in the final city budget.
The Supreme Court’s Campaign-Finance Decision Is Actually Good
Or at least, it’s not bad.
Identity Politics: The Good, The Bad, And The… Hotly Contested
Should our government ignore our identities or focus on them? In this episode of Crash Course Political Theory, we’ll explore the role identity plays in politics and government, from affirmative action to white backlash, and ask, “What is fair?”
Why Meta's cloud business would be 'very bad' for these 2 companies
D.A. Davidson head of technology research Gil Luria explains what Meta's (META) potential cloud business means for CoreWeave (CRWV) and Nebius (NBIS).
10 reasons Wimbledon still feels like sports’ greatest summer ritual
Every summer, the tennis world turns its attention to the grass courts of the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club in London. The 2026 Championships, Wimbledon has already produced memorable moments in the first round, with established champions, emotional…
3 reasons to like Wisconsin’s new AD hire
Why should Badgers fans be optimistic about their new Athletic Director?
Debunking bad advice with CBS News business analyst Jill Schlesinger
Lawmakers must put women’s health, dignity and lives ahead of politics
Each year since the fall of Roe, the Louisiana Legislature has advanced increasingly aggressive versions of the state's abortion ban, often under the guise of targeting bad actors.
Lawmakers must put women’s health, dignity and lives ahead of politics
Each year since the fall of Roe, the Louisiana Legislature has advanced increasingly aggressive versions of the state's abortion ban, often under the guise of targeting bad actors.
Steelers rival turns Myles Garrett loss into scary new claim
The Cleveland Browns are turning the Myles Garrett trade into a rallying point, and Jared Verse could make that bad news for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
BlueCrest warns UK is bad for business after losing £200mn tax battle
Investment firm says country ‘no longer a serious contender’
2026 Arts & Entertainment Winners
The 2026 Chronogram Readers' Choice Awards winners for arts and entertainment. The categories include annual events, art classes, dance classes, bands, radio shows, and more.
Astros 6, Twins 4: Alvarez’s Grand Slam sinks Twins
It was a rare bad start from Joe Ryan, as the Twins dropped game two of the series.
Magic find out group pairings for upcoming NBA Cup
The Magic on Tuesday night drew a compelling group for Group Play of the NBA Cup, the league’s fourth-ever in-season tournament. Orlando was placed in East Group A alongside Detroit, Toronto, Milwaukee and Brooklyn. The tournament — which will consist of two stages including Group Play and the Knockout Rounds — starts Oct. 30 and will end with the title game (Dec. 11) at Hinkle Fieldhouse ...
LA sports radio host torches Lebron in blistering reaction: ‘Wasn’t a Laker’
The longtime broadcaster also suggested the split ultimately boiled down to money, saying he believes contract negotiations played a larger role than basketball considerations.
Boyle Heights community dealing with rotting smell, rodents, health concerns after warehouse fire
Wyoming Department of Health Warns Residents About Spoofing Calls
CHEYENNE, WY — The Wyoming Department of Health (WDH) is alerting residents to a recent phone scam where bad actors are “spoofing” official department phone numbers to solicit personal information. “Spoofing” is a form of scamming where a bad actor manipulates a caller ID to display a different phone number, often displaying the information of […]
The Lasting Consequences of Bad Climate Science
The retirement of flawed baseline emissions scenarios will initiate changes across energy policy, regulation, and law.
The Supreme Court’s New 6–3 Elections Case Was Not Nearly as Bad as Expected
As disastrous Supreme Court election cases go, Tuesday’s decision in NSRC v. FEC doesn’t make the list of complete abominations.
Card Shop Suspends Yu-Gi-Oh Tournaments Over Smelly Players
An Oregon card shop has halted its Yu-Gi-Oh tournaments for a week after receiving multiple complaints and bad reviews due to smelly players.
Dragon Age Lead Writer Condemns AI As A 'Virulent Plague'
David Gaider doesn't hold back when explaining why genAI is so bad for games development
How 'Bad Santa' brought naughty Billy Bob Thornton onto 'Landman'
If you've ever thought that you'd seen Billy Bob Thornton's Tommy Norris before, you're jolly right. The "Landman" central character is the spiritual cousin to Thornton's infamous role as Willie
Business is good at the Camillus Costco. It asks town for OK to make a move
The proposal is being reviewed by the town of Camillus planning board.
Crews called to overnight fire to auto repair business in Boonville
Crews called to overnight fire to auto repair business in Boonville
Crews called to overnight fire to auto repair business in Boonville
Crews called to overnight fire to auto repair business in Boonville
Crews called to overnight fire to auto repair business in Boonville
Crews called to overnight fire to auto repair business in Boonville
Wisconsin Badgers to add Culver's logo to uniforms for football, 2 other sports
The Culver's logo will be on Wisconsin's football, men's basketball and men's hockey jerseys as part of an expanded sponsorship deal.
Editorial: Chicago separated its mental health emergency response from public safety. Bad idea.
Johnson’s redesign moved CARE toward a stand-alone public health response rather than an integrated public safety partnership.
Browns QB Shedeur Sanders Gets Bad News on Future
The Cleveland Browns’ quarterback competition remains open heading into training camp, but the momentum appears to be favoring Deshaun Watson, not Shedeur Sanders. The post Browns QB Shedeur Sanders Gets Bad News on Future appeared first on HEAVY.
Justice Sotomayor received concert tickets from Bad Bunny’s label
Justice Sonia Sotomayor received more than $4,000 in concert tickets from a Puerto Rican record label that counts Bad Bunny among its clients, according to a financial disclosure report made public Monday.
Former Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson reveals a devastating health diagnosis
Two-time All-Pro Chris Johnson reveals diagnosis at age 40.
Arsenal head of sports science performance departs
Arsenal head of sports science performance Tom Allen is the latest member of the club's backroom team set to leave the club.
State funds access to fresh produce in high-poverty communities
State funding intends to increase access to fresh produce in Maryland's high-poverty communities.
Growing scientific evidence links e-cigarette chemicals to heart health risks
DALLAS, June 29, 2026 — Is vaping bad for my health? As people who use e-cigarettes and their loved ones pose questions like this, growing scientific evidence shows that the answer is yes. Research studies show that several chemicals found in...
Meet the worst L.A. free-agent signing ever
There have been a lot of bad free-agent signing in L.A. sports history, but this one rises, or sinks among all the others.
Comcast to split cable business from media through NBCUniversal, Sky spinoff
Comcast will split into two publicly traded companies through a spinoff of NBCUniversal and Sky, separating its cash-generating broadband arm from a media and entertainment business under pressure from streaming rivals and industry consolidation. The latest U.S. media industry shake-up follows years of cord-cutting as legacy players chase scale to better compete with Netflix while Paramount Skydance's $110 billion deal for Warner Bros Discovery is set to boost competition. Comcast, which leans on cable for much of its cash flow, is also losing broadband customers to fixed wireless offerings from T-Mobile and Verizon and to fiber rivals building out networks.
Breaking: T-Mobile To Force Migrate Over 8 Million Customers To More Expensive Plans
Bad news for loyal long-time customers of T-Mobile: prices are about to go up by quite a lot.
WGU’s flexible, skills-first pathways are bridging Detroit’s talent gap
Discover how skills-first education is helping employers address workforce shortages across Southeast Michigan.
Millions drop Obamacare health coverage after subsidies expire and costs rise
Hampton Roads Virginia and Northeastern North Carolina News, Weather, Traffic and Sports.
New Ballard coffee shop burglarized two months into business
Highland Espresso is recovering after thieves broke in and stole thousands of dollars worth of equipment early Thursday morning.
Rory McIlroy
The Travelers Championship is the final signature event of the 2026 PGA Tour season, with a total purse of $20 million.
Scratching bug bites feels good – but science says don’t do it
You’ve likely heard it since childhood: Don’t scratch that bug bite or rash, you’ll make it worse. But why would something that feels so good be bad?
AWS CEO says replacing young employees with AI is ‘one of the dumbest ideas’—and bad for business: ‘At some point the whole thing explodes on itself’
Amazon laid off 14,000 employees this fall, but CEO Andy Jassy denied the reductions were related to AI.
Government overreach won’t fix youth gender medicine
The real cure for bad science is better clinical trials, not lawsuits.
Government overreach won’t fix youth gender medicine
The real cure for bad science is better clinical trials, not lawsuits.
Anaheim Ducks help Wisconsin Badgers extend major NHL draft milestone
This weekend's NHL Draft marks 29 straight where the Wisconsin Badgers have had a player selected.
Carman: Tuesday’s election is more than just a primary. It’s a colossal opportunity to change history.
The template for tyrants goes back at least to Ancient Rome and, as Nero discovered, generally ends badly.
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it's a bad idea
You've likely heard it since childhood: Don't scratch that bug bite or rash, you'll make it worse. But why would something that feels so good be bad?
Bad news: Netflix now wants every single profile in your house to have its own email login
Netflix quietly updates how shared accounts work
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it's a bad idea
Now researchers better understand why even a mildly annoying itch could put you on an itch-and-scratch cycle if you give in.
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it's a bad idea
For the summer itchiness of bug bites and poison ivy, dermatologists recommend hydrocortisone cream, calamine lotion or oatmeal baths.
Dear Abby | Mom's rekindling with abusive father feels like a betrayal
Dear Abby: I am estranged from my father and have been since I was 12. (I'm currently 26.) He was emotionally, psychologically and physically abusive to me, and cutting ties
Scratching a bug bite feels good but science says it’s a bad idea
Researchers have gained a better understanding of why we have an itch to scratch.
3 ways you’re working wrong, according to scientists
Stop multitasking.
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it's a bad idea
You scratched that bug bite and now it's a big itchier bump. Some science explains why scratching really can make things worse, even if you don't break the skin. University of Pittsburgh researchers put tiny “cones of shame” onto mice to help unravel what happens on a cellular level when an itch ...
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it’s a bad idea
You scratched that bug bite and now it's a big itchier bump.
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it’s a bad idea
WASHINGTON (AP) — You’ve likely heard it since childhood: Don’t scratch that bug bite or rash, you’ll make it worse. But why would something that feels so good be bad? A lot of things can cause itc…
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it's a bad idea
You scratched that bug bite and now it's a big itchier bump. Some science explains why scratching really can make things worse, even if you don't break the skin. University
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it's a bad idea
You’ve likely heard it since childhood: Don’t scratch that bug bite or rash, you’ll make it worse. A lot of things can cause itchiness, sometimes serious diseases. Whatever the cause, doctors have l...
3 foods that seem healthy but may be bad for your heart: cardiologist
A cardiologist said popular "healthy" foods can actually be bad for your heart, since they're highly processed and full of additives like sugar and fat.
Gen Z traders launched a trading platform to fight bad 'finfluencer' advice
Ivan Patriki and Carson Hein founded QuantMap to counter the bad info they say is all over social media and to give traders better tools to succeed.
Days Ahead to Show If Burnham Plays Politics Better Than Starmer
Standing across from Keir Starmer in the Commons chamber this week, opposition leader Kemi Badenoch drew on a particularly violent metaphor for how the Labour Party had ditched him when she conjured up an image of “400 knives stuck in the prime minister’s back.”
From Supergirl to Muse: your complete entertainment guide to the week ahead
Milly Alcock’s Kryptonian hero bops baddies with a superdog in tow, while the Devon band return with another collection of all-caps rock
A Game Of Inches: 4 Takeaways From A Dizzying Iran-Egypt Draw
This was a pulsating game that came down to one call that flipped the knockout round fates of three teams.
Rangers Land 37-Goal Star In Blockbuster Trade With Vegas
The New York Rangers have added a new star forward to their roster.According to TSN’s Darren Dreger, the Rangers have acquired forward Pavel Dorofeyev from the Vegas Golden Knights.Sportnet’s Elliotte Friedman later added that the Rangers are sending the 26th pick of the 2026 Entry Draft, the 92nd pick of this year’s draft, and their […] The post Rangers Land 37-Goal Star In Blockbuster Trade With Vegas appeared first on HEAVY.
‘It’s a bad time to be a normal’: House Republican on current political environment
Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) reacts to President Trump's decision to cancel the signing of the bipartisan housing affordability bill. Rep. Johnson also discusses the president’s Iran strategy and the current political environment.
UC San Diego hosts free Comic-Con events, intersecting health and science through fiction
UC San Diego is holding a badge-free series of comic and science-inspired events in tandem through The Science of Story, from July 21-26.
The Year 536 AD Was So Bad It May Have Been the Worst Time in Human History to Be Alive
Volcanoes, famine and plague made 536 a leading candidate for history’s worst year.
Four bad habits tournament golf exposed within my game
What one writer learned from his second tournament round of the year.
Sugar is not uniquely bad for you. But it’s undermining good habits.
Is sugar more harmful than other carbohydrates? The evidence is far from compelling.
Parasite Affecting 1 in 3 People Is a Serious Risk to Human Health, Scientists Warn
More needs to be done.
Kawhi Leonard Seeks Extension – But Not With Current Team
Kawhi Leonard has one year left on his current contract with the Los Angeles Clippers. He’s eligible to sign an extension this summer, and sounds like he’s willing to do get that done. The one caveat: The Clippers aren’t necessarily the team he wants to sign with. Leonard, who turns 35 on June 29, ...
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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