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Italy business and consumer confidence rise in August

ROME, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Italian business and consumer confidence rose in August, data showed on Friday, in a ​positive sign for the prospects of ‌the euro zone's third largest economy. • National statistics institute ISTAT's consumer confidence index ...

Aug 28 • 5:16 AM EDT • Business • wtvbam.com

The Literacy Crisis Reaches Dog-Bear Science

“New analysis of more than 300 bear encounters suggests our canine companions often increase odds of conflict and rarely serve as early warning systems many recreationists assume,” reads a subhead in Mountain Journal. The thing is, that study reaches no such conclusion. But you have to read beyond the abstract to understand that. Mountain Journal is not alone. Let’s look at a brief list of takeaways published elsewhere just to establish that none of them seem to know how to read science. Wes Siler’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe Here’s CBC: “A new peer-reviewed study, The Canine Conundrum: Is a Dog a Help or Hindrance in Bear Country?, dug into conflicts similar to what the video depicts, by analyzing 326 reported human-bear conflicts from 1901 to 2023 involving dogs.” “The study found 54 per cent of conflicts were started by dogs. In the encounters researchers included in the study, five people and 56 dogs were killed, and 170 people were injured.” “Lana Ciarniello, an independent researcher who co-authored the study, said researchers found when a person goes hiking with at least one other person, the odds of a negative bear encounter decrease by 50 per cent.” “However, when a dog is involved, the chances of a negative bear encounter increase because ‘a dog really adds a chaotic factor into the mix of recreation,’ said Ciarniello.” Again, the study finds no data supporting that conclusion. “Hiking with your pet dog may make you feel safer in bear country—but a hiker’s recent encounter and a new study prove that the numbers don’t add up,” writes Backpacker, which is now part of Outside. The numbers don’t add up to support this take. There’s plenty more examples, but all are equally dumb, so I’ll stop there. How did so many people get this so wrong? Three reasons: 1) the study is published behind a paywall, with only the abstract freely available. 2) the methodology sets out to create work relevant to a hyper-specific audience, not the public. And 3) the dataset studied is almost absurdly limited and doesn’t bear (get it?!) comparison to wider information. Let’s work through all three. The Problem is Money I understand the irony, since I’m writing about this on a subscription-model newsletter, but information wants to be free. The study is published by The Wildlife Society and costs $16 to access. Reprinting it is specifically prohibited by the terms of use, so I can only share snippets and my conclusions with you here. Having worked as a journalist for 24 years, I can report with some authority that journalists are both lazy and cheap. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that much of the material you’re seeing written about this study is drawn from the freely-available abstract (above) only, and not a deep dive into its methodology or data. And that’s a problem, because abstracts are where researchers are able to break from their numbers and editorialize their opinions about conclusions. So what’s getting reported isn’t based on numbers, it’s based on an opinion designed for a specific audience, not the general public. Hell yeah ladies, kick that bear’s ass. The Methodology is Designed to Support a Predetermined Conclusion One of the biggest issues with the science that everyone likes to cite about bear spray’s efficacy is that no one understands that study was designed for a specific audience, looking for a specific answer. And since that audience is not the public, and our safety was not the question being asked, its conclusion is rendered irrelevant to our needs. Yes, I’m talking about Efficacy of Bear Deterrent Spray in Alaska, which was created by Tom Smith and Stephen Herrero, two of the same scientists who put together this dog-bear conflict analysis. In the spray study, the purpose was to present relevant agencies with the information they needed to issue their field workers with bear spray. As such, incidents where people were unable to access the spray or similarly failed to get it deployed in time were excluded from the results, and only incidents they deemed successful were included. Could a ranger roll down their vehicle’s window and scare a bear away from a dumpster by spraying it? Turns out the answer was yes, and that was good enough for the purposes of that study. The sample size of actual bear attacks—the thing you and I would want bear spray to provide a solution to, was too small to draw conclusions from, and didn’t indicate success in that role. Is a Dog a Help or Hindrance in Bear Country? has similar limitations. “Insights provided here are intended to help wildlife managers create effective guidelines regarding the presence of domestic dogs in bear habitat,” is explained clearly by the study’s text. To conduct the study, Smith and Herrero went looking for publicly available reports of dog-bear conflicts: “All incidents included in our analysis involved at least one bear, one dog, and one person who was at immediate risk of injury (e.g., not in a protective structure such as a cabin or vehicle), injured, or killed,” explains the report’s methodology. Why is that a problem? “We recognize that data used in this study are biased in that people generally only report adverse interactions with bears, not benign ones. Consequently, we assume that for the most part, people and their dogs pass through bear country without incident.” As was the problem with the bear spray study, people are drawing conclusions here from a study that was never intended to be relevant to the general public. The Smith-Herrero database famously excludes Alaska’s Defense of Life and Property records, which are elsewhere considered the largest and most authoritative source on human-bear conflict. The Dataset is Absurdly Limited A 2009 study conducted by the Washington Department of Fish & Wildlife estimates that each year there are at least 43,000 documented complaints of human-bear conflict across North America. Is a Dog a Help or Hindrance in Bear Country? Examined those reports for years ranging from 1901 to 2023, and only managed to find 326 such incidents that met the criteria explained above. Let’s do some quick math, poorly. 43,000 incidents x 122 years = 5,246,000 total incidents of documented human-bear conflict. Smith and Herrero were only able to find 326 incidents that met their criteria for dog+human+bear+risk or occurrence of injury. That means there’s a 0.006 percent chance that the study’s conclusion—that dogs make bear encounters more dangerous—even gets a chance of occurring. And remember, that’s only in documented conflicts. There’s no way to know how many people across North America run into a bear in any given year without any conflict, but it’s probably safe to assume that the total number is well in excess of 43,000. And, dig deeper into the study and you can find further restrictions that skew its conclusions even more. “While the people involved in these incidents did not report the level of training their dogs had received, it is our assumption that most were untrained companion dogs as opposed to well-trained bear dogs, such as Karelians and livestock guardian breeds that have proven to be significant aids in bear country,” the study’s methodology explains. And that’s a problem, because an ongoing study here in Montana is finding that the simple presence of a Kangal like our youngest dog Teddy can reduce visits to private property from grizzly bears by 87.8 percent. In addition to being a badass, Teddy is also a companion animal. And in my admittedly limited sample size of the three dogs currently present in our living room, she’s no more effective than her mutt brothers. Plenty of people own a dog capable of deterring bears, even if they didn’t set out to own a bear dog. The real purpose of this study appears to be a recommendation that leashes are mandated and recreationists pursue training in their deterrent of choice. But that doesn’t make for sensational headlines. Are There Any Real Takeaways Here? Let’s throw some numbers around, just to try and get our hands around what the larger picture might look like for bears and dogs here. The American Veterinary Medical Association estimates that 42.6 percent of American households own a dog. The Canadian Animal Health Institute says roughly 35 percent of households in Canuckistan own a dog. In an attempt to create the worst possible result for dogs, let’s run with that 35 percent number. And given that outdoorsy and rural people are more likely to both own a dog, and have bear encounters, let’s just make a giant assumption and apply that number to those 43,000 conflicts documented annually. If 35 percent of 43,000 human-bear encounters involve a dog, then we can assume that at least 15,050 dog-bear conflicts are occurring annually in North America. 15,050 x 122 = 1,836,100. Smith and Herrero were only able to find 326 incidents that met their human, dog, chance or occurrence of injury criteria across 122 years. And only 170 documented human injuries. So, with all the obvious caveats about these numbers in no way describing reality beyond narrow study parameters, what they actually found is that your risk of injury if your dog tangles with a bear is only 0.009 percent. I’ll take those odds next time I’m hiking my dogs in bear country. Top photo: “Superintendent Horace Albright, eating pancakes with bears, at Lake Lodge, Yellowstone National Park.” NPS. A journalist with more than two decades of experience working around the world, Wes Siler is here to cut through the outrage and disinformation to bring you the factual, insightful, actionable reporting you need to understand what’s going on. Upgrading to a paid subscription supports this reporting, and buys personal access to Wes, who will help you save money on gear, plan outdoor adventures, and prepare for real life, and who promises he’s less salty in real life than he sometimes comes across as on the Internet. Wes Siler’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe

Aug 27 • 6:47 PM EDT • Science • wessiler.substack.com

Lamar Jackson has one goal for his 2026 rushing workload

Lamar Jackson addressed questions about his rushing workload and made it clear individual statistics aren't driving his approach.

Aug 27 • 6:54 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

Corn and rice harvest underway in Arkansas

Abnormally dry conditions throughout the Arkansas Delta during the last month have sped the rice and corn harvest, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service...

Aug 20 • 11:24 AM EDT • Politics • talkbusiness.net

Pick of the stats: West Ham United v Charlton Athletic

BBC Sport highlights some of the key facts and statistics for the Championship match between West Ham United and Charlton Athletic.

Aug 20 • 4:25 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

Pick of the stats: Swansea City v Sheffield United

BBC Sport highlights some of the key facts and statistics for the Championship game between Swansea City and Sheffield United.

Aug 20 • 4:25 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

Pick of the stats: Southampton v Stoke City

BBC Sport highlights some of the key facts and statistics for the Championship match between Southampton and Stoke City.

Aug 20 • 4:25 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

Experts slam ‘flawed’ Trump administration Census report on alleged noncitizen voting

Former Census Bureau leaders, statisticians and voting-rights advocates are raising alarms about an unusual, unsigned new report posted on the agency’s website that claims tens of thousands of noncitizens voted in the 2020 presidential election.

Aug 20 • 4:00 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com

Trump takes credit for prescription drug prices falling in July

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this week that medicinal drug prices fell 3.1% in July — the steepest decline in over 60 years

Aug 14 • 5:14 PM EDT • Politics • spectrumlocalnews.com

Laguna Beach business leaders get public safety update

Laguna Beach Police Chief Jeff Calvert was a guest speaker during the Chamber of Commerce’s government affairs meeting on Aug. 6.

Aug 13 • 6:49 PM EDT • Business • latimes.com

Cowboys’ Dak Prescott Got High Praise From Former NFL QB

While it doesn’t get talked about as often, Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has continued to prove himself as one of the NFL‘s best at the position.Each year, Prescott keeps statistically being in the top 10 in passing. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, they have not been to the playoffs over the last two seasons.Entering the […] The post Cowboys’ Dak Prescott Got High Praise From Former NFL QB appeared first on HEAVY.

Aug 13 • 2:19 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

AI needs science’s search history

“Actually, that’s where the gold is,” said Alasdair Russell, my graduate school friend who leads a pre-clinical genome editing group at Cambridge. He was talking about the winding road of science that is omitted from published papers. “When you’re discussing how to do the experiment, and why this way is better than another way, and what does the data really mean? I know what it shows, but what does it mean?” At RAAIS 2026, he described how his group has begun logging the twisting path of discovery as it happens, recording the verbal and written exchanges that normally disappear. Ideas become nodes in a living graph: they branch when a meeting produces two plausible experiments, merge when separate lines of evidence converge, and go dark when someone quietly stops pursuing them. In his implementation, one agent scores novelty, while another tries to learn “how scientists think and how they navigate through a complex world of data,” so that high-potential nodes can trigger deeper investigation. As frontier AI labs deploy agents toward scientific discovery, giving AI authentic scientific taste remains a trillion-dollar dilemma. The bottleneck is that the record we have kept for centuries of science might be insufficient to get us there. The experiments that never make the paper Peter Medawar, 1960 Nobel laureate and “father of transplantation,” asked in 1963 whether the scientific paper was a fraud, and answered yes: the form of the paper misrepresents the thinking that produced it. Sixty years on, the diagnosis is unchanged. A paper presents a clean progression from hypothesis to result to conclusion. Lost along the way are the unconventional theories, the abandoned or unaffordable methods, and the underwhelming and inconclusive data. It reads like a browser history with every dead end deleted: the ten open tabs, the four rephrased queries, the wrong turn down a subforum. All scrubbed, leaving one clean path from question to answer as the canonical path. What has changed since then is that the discarded material is now worth something. No high-impact journal wants these artifacts, but raw trial and error is the most likely source of the training data required to develop scientific intuition, or what researchers call taste. Earlier attempts to capture the discards were motivated by scientific integrity. The Journal of Negative Results in Biomedicine launched in 2002 to publish rigorous studies that disputed established models or exposed ineffective treatments. Its archive preserved negative conclusions after they had become papers, rather than the live alternatives and arguments that produced them. BioMed Central closed it in 2017, saying the mission had been served now that other journals publish null results. A less generous reading is that in fifteen years it published around 200 papers because almost nobody wants to read a negative result, let alone write one up when it will not count toward academic tenure. AI models are different. Even an uninteresting negative result can be useful, provided it is labeled. Earlier this year, Anthropic put a version of this to the test. The company pulled 129 decision points from real Claude Code sessions between January and March 2026, showed models the work up to a human detour, and asked what should happen next. Claude Mythos Preview beat the human choice 64% of the time, while Opus 4.5 managed 51%. The comparison was tilted toward the models because Anthropic deliberately chose moments where the human decision had room for improvement. On 127 further scenarios where the human action was already strong, the models improved on it only about 20% of the time. The study was possible because Anthropic’s researchers work inside a tool that logs by default. The reasoning, detours and outcome are produced in the same working environment. Biology has no equivalent. Its reasoning happens in hallways, at benches, in Slack threads and on whiteboards, while the outcome arrives weeks later somewhere else. The record has to emerge from the work itself. Ask scientists to reconstruct it afterwards and we’ll create another polished account. Subscribe A log is not a label Before any of this becomes training data, a negative result has to say what failed. The first paper published in the Journal of Negative Results in Biomedicine examined 234 negative studies across five leading medical journals. Only 30% discussed statistical power, and half clearly defined a primary outcome. Tell a model an experiment failed, without telling it whether the assay was underpowered, a reagent had degraded, or the hypothesis was simply wrong, and it will learn noise with confidence. Decision histories have a second missing label too. When a lab considers five experiments and runs one, only the chosen branch returns an outcome. The other four are experimental counterfactuals. Researchers call this the selective labels problem: the data reveal results only for the actions someone chose to take. Such a record can teach a model to imitate a lab’s taste, but it cannot establish that the taste was good. It also smuggles local constraints into general lessons. A lab that never ran cryo-EM because it did not own a microscope teaches a model that cryo-EM is rarely the right call. Alasdair’s nodes preserve the candidate set, which is the necessary first step. To be useful, each decision record needs six fields: The evidence available at that moment, and nothing that arrived later. The candidates considered, including the ones dismissed in a sentence. For each candidate: the expected result, the confidence attached to it, and the cost in time and money. The route chosen, and the reason. What happened next. How the evidence changed the scientist’s view. These must be timestamped before the outcome, because hindsight turns uncertainty into inevitability. Disagreement also has to survive. Averaging three scientists into one clean rationale reproduces exactly the information loss we are trying to fix. But there is an obvious failure mode here. Once decisions are logged and scored, people log for the record post-facto. Anyone who has watched an electronic lab notebook fill up with retrospective tidying knows how quickly a research tool becomes a compliance exercise. A record that costs a scientist ten minutes of honest reflection per decision is worth far more than one that costs an hour of performance. A publication initiative called Registered Reports offers a useful starting point. Here, researchers submit their rationale, methods and analysis plan for peer review before the data exist, and the journal commits in principle to publish if they follow the approved plan. Nature has now expanded the format across every field it covers. This approach to paper writing timestamps intent before the outcome, but it freezes one plan. A useful search history must also preserve how the plan changed, which alternatives were rejected, when, and on what evidence. Subscribe Run the runner-up Autonomous labs show what happens when decisions and outcomes are connected in a loop. Liverpool’s mobile robotic chemist ran 688 experiments over eight days in a ten-variable formulation space. A batched Bayesian search used each result to choose the next experiments and found photocatalyst mixtures six times more active than the starting formulations. Every completed experiment changed what the system did next. The robot optimized within a goal and search space that humans had already chosen. It did not decide which scientific question mattered. So what this work demonstrates is narrower, but still useful: a search history pays off when the options return standardized outcomes quickly. Open-ended biology is harder because branches can take weeks and the discarded alternatives may never be run. Some exploration therefore has to be bought. Where two branches are plausible and the stakes justify the cost, a lab should sometimes run the runner-up. Otherwise the record captures what today’s scientists usually chose and stays silent on what they systematically overlooked. A funder could ring-fence a small fraction of a grant for the branch not taken, provided that the decision record and the outcome are both deposited. That costs money, but so does having every lab rediscover the same abandoned path. Test whether taste transfers When it comes time to evaluate if our new AI system exhibits taste, the comparison should run across laboratories and fields. At selected decision points in a live research campaign, we should freeze the six fields: the evidence, the candidates, expected results, confidence, costs and the choice made. Experts then rank the options before the outcomes are known, and those outcomes are checked independently later. We could give models one of two diets - papers alone, or papers plus decision histories - and ask them to rank the next experiment on unfamiliar projects. Then, we score information gained per dollar and week, calibration, and how quickly weak branches are abandoned. If histories improve choices only inside the lab that produced them, they amount to useful organizational memory. If they improve choices on unfamiliar problems elsewhere, Alasdair’s group will have captured something science has never managed to write down: a transferable record of taste. Until that happens, a scientific search history is a promising record, not yet a training set.

Aug 13 • 11:16 AM EDT • Science • press.airstreet.com

AbCellera women’s health data top ‘most aggressive upside scenario,’ putting Astellas and Bayer on notice

AbCellera has reported phase 2 results “beyond even the most aggressive upside scenario” that its CEO dared to consider, boosting the biotech’s chances of challenging Astellas and Bayer for a women’s health market. The phase 2 clinical trial compared ABCL635, an antibody targeting NK3R, to placebo in patients with hot flashes caused by menopause. Investigators enrolled 92 postmenopausal women experiencing a mean of about 10 moderate or severe hot flashes per day. By Week 4, the number of moderate or severe hot flashes had fallen by a mean of 8.8 on ABCL635 and by 3.5 on placebo. That statistically significant, placebo-adjusted reduction of 5.3 hit the trial’s primary endpoint. The level of efficacy also cleared the bar set by existing drugs. While cross-trial comparisons can be misleading, AbCellera CEO Carl Hansen, Ph.D., had seen enough to start hyping the program. “We now view ABCL635 as a potential best-in-class non-hormonal therapy with strong differentiation against approved NK3R competitors across all important dimensions, including efficacy, safety, dosing and convenience,” Hansen said on a Monday morning conference call with investors to discuss the data. “We believe ABCL635 is now a highly de-risked program.” Last week, Hansen used AbCellera’s earnings call to set expectations for readout, with the CEO defining success as a clean safety profile and efficacy comparable to the two approved small molecules. The data vaulted over that bar. Astellas linked (PDF) one of the small molecules, Veozah, to placebo-adjusted reductions in hot flash frequency of 2.1 and 2.6 at Week 4 of its two phase 3 trials. Bayer reported (PDF) placebo-adjusted reductions of 3.04 and 3.29 at Week 4 of pivotal studies for its small molecule, Lynkuet. At 5.3, the placebo-adjusted reduction in AbCellera’s trial comfortably cleared the standard set by the incumbents. Veozah and Lynkuet came to market based on evidence of their ability to reduce the frequency and severity of hot flashes. AbCellera’s phase 2 study covered both endpoints, with the Canadian biotech reporting a mean reduction in severity of 1.4 points at Week 4 on ABCL635, compared to 0.3 points for placebo. Again, the placebo-adjusted result compares favorably to data on Veozah and Lynkuet. Analysts shared Hansen’s enthusiasm for the data. The phase 2 results “firmly validate ABCL635 as a potentially best-in-class treatment,” BMO Capital Markets analysts said in a note to investors Monday. ABCL635’s apparent efficacy edge “is likely attributable to the higher dosing/target engagement the asset is able to reach vs. the oral agents due to its wider therapeutic index,” the analysts added. The analysts, who model $2.3 billion in unadjusted peak sales for ABCL635, flagged the safety profile as another positive of the phase 2 readout. While Veozah carries a boxed warning for liver damage, nobody on ABCL635 in the phase 2 trial had elevated liver enzymes or bilirubin values. If replicated in phase 3, the lack of a liver signal could allow approval without the monitoring requirements imposed on Veozah. Investors appeared equally enthused, sending AbCellera's stock up 32% to $9.21 in premarket trading Monday from a Friday closing price of $6.93. Next, AbCellera will collect the Week 12 data and talk to its advisors about further development. The results open up “a wide variety of possibilities of how we might take this forward into phase 3 studies to truly maximize the value of the asset and make sure that ABCL635 is able to demonstrate its differentiation potential,” Sarah Noonberg, M.D., Ph.D., AbCellera’s chief medical officer, told investors.

Aug 10 • 8:24 AM EDT • Health • fiercebiotech.com

Vikings QB Race Heating Up With One Name Pulling Away

The Minnesota Vikings quarterback battle has been one of the biggest stories for training camp to this point. Friday gave another chance for the quarterbacks to showcase their skills. J.J. McCarthy had the better day on Friday according to statistics, but SKOR’s Judd Zulgad pointed to one metric that worked in Murray’s favor.McCarthy had a […] The post Vikings QB Race Heating Up With One Name Pulling Away appeared first on HEAVY.

Aug 8 • 1:22 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

U.S. Lost 23,000 Jobs In July, But Entertainment Industry Saw An Uptick

The U.S. economy lost 23,000 in July, while the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.1%. The figures showed declines in local government education and retail trade, according to the figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The job loss was unexpected, with analysts estimating a gain of as much as 100,000. Jobs in movies and …

Aug 7 • 8:39 AM EDT • Entertainment • ca.finance.yahoo.com

U.S. Lost 23,000 Jobs In July, But Entertainment Industry Saw An Uptick

The U.S. economy lost 23,000 in July, while the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.1%. The figures showed declines in local government education and retail trade, according to the figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The job loss was unexpected, with analysts estimating a gain of as much as 100,000. Jobs in movies and […]

Aug 7 • 8:39 AM EDT • Entertainment • deadline.com

Hospitals nationwide recognized for commitment to advancing high-quality cardiovascular health care

DALLAS, August 5, 2026 — Cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of death in the United States, according to the American Heart Association’s 2026 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics, and improving survival depends on health care teams...

Aug 5 • 8:00 AM EDT • Health • newsroom.heart.org

Baldur's Gate 3 devs share more wild statistics, like what NPCs died the most

Also: Behold, Bald Lae'zel

Aug 4 • 4:44 PM EDT • Technology • polygon.com

Alexander Rakhlin named director of the MIT Statistics and Data Science Center

Alexander ‘Sasha’ Rakhlin, the Distinguished Professor in Data, Systems, and Society, IDSS and Brain and Cognitive Sciences at MIT, has been named the next director of the MIT Statistics and Data Science Center.

Aug 3 • 3:50 PM EDT • Science • news.mit.edu

Scientists detect a sharp acceleration in global warming

Global warming appears to have shifted into a faster gear. After removing the effects of El Niño, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycles, researchers found that the planet has warmed at roughly 0.35°C per decade over the past ten years, compared with just under 0.2°C per decade from 1970 to 2015. The acceleration, which becomes visible around 2013 to 2015, appeared across five major global temperature datasets with more than 98% statistical certainty.

Aug 1 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com

Author's Response: African Americans, Sudan, and the Politics of Solidarity

This post is part of our online roundtable on Christopher Tounsel’s Bounds of Blackness. In April 2023, civil conflict erupted in Sudan between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). While numbers alone never convey a war’s human toll, the statistic

Jul 31 • 5:00 AM EDT • Politics • aaihs.org

Change to Census Data Processing Methods Threatens Health Policy Research and Federal Data Systems

On June 4, 2026, the Commerce Department issued Department Administrative Order (DAO) 216-26, Disclosure Avoidance for Statistical Products, which bans a class of privacy techniques called “noise infusion” in all data products coming out of the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). This order, which was made effective immediately without opportunity for […]

Jul 30 • 10:18 AM EDT • Health • ccf.georgetown.edu

August 8th 'Women in Sports Night' to include a pregame Panel Discussion at the Pub at the Park

The Official Site of Minor League Baseball web site includes features, news, rosters, statistics, schedules, teams, live game radio broadcasts, and video clips.

Jul 30 • 12:44 AM EDT • Sports • milb.com

One Vikings Receiver Stole the Show at Wednesday’s Practice

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison impressed during Wednesday’s training camp practice. He was all over the field, according to multiple media reports, and statistically, he had a great day. He caught five passes on seven targets from quarterback Kyler Murray. Bring Me The News’s Will Ragatz reported this.Addison was reportedly able to make a […] The post One Vikings Receiver Stole the Show at Wednesday’s Practice appeared first on HEAVY.

Jul 30 • 12:33 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

Florida-Based Science and Technology Company Crescel Announces Landmark Peer-Reviewed Medical Publication

Crescel LLC, a Florida-based innovative science and technology company, today announced publication of its landmark PubMed-indexed, peer-reviewed clinical study showing that its biobotanical technology produced statistically significant improvements over the leading prescription standard of care for rosacea in a randomized, double-blind, controlled clinical trial. Published in the Journal of Cosmetic Dermatology, the study represents a major scientific milestone for the company's pioneering prop

Jul 23 • 11:05 AM EDT • Science • finance.yahoo.com

Will Jared Goff Contend for NFL MVP in 2026?

If the Detroit Lions win the NFC North, earn the No. 1 seed, and Jared Goff posts another outstanding statistical season, he could emerge as a legitimate NFL MVP candidate.

Jul 22 • 10:44 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

Maine Senate race poll shows statistical tie between Jackson and Collins

Among independents, 46% chose Jackson, 42% picked Collins and 12% are either undecided or choosing another candidate.

Jul 22 • 7:31 AM EDT • Politics • spectrumlocalnews.com

Waste, fraud, abuse… and the politics of power

One of the oldest tricks in politics is knowing when to use a number and when to use a percentage. If you want something to sound enormous, you use the raw number. If you want it to sound insignificant, you use the percentage. Politicians, statisticians and public relations strategists know this. Every citizen should understand […]

Jul 16 • 5:59 AM EDT • Politics • tennesseelookout.com

No Timeouts: CLAS Student Combines Passions in Summer Sports Internship

Vincenzo Carbone ’27 (CLAS) is bringing his education in statistical data science and communication to the professional world

Jul 15 • 11:30 AM EDT • Sports • today.uconn.edu

Consumer inflation cooled more than expected in June as gas prices fell

The Bureau of Labor Statistics found that the consumer price index (CPI) eased in June as consumer price growth slowed after a recent surge caused by the Iran war.

Jul 14 • 8:33 AM EDT • Business • foxbusiness.com

John P. Morgan honored with emeritus status

A member of the Virginia Tech community for more than 26 years, Morgan provided many years of distinguished contributions and leadership to the Department of Statistics and the College of Science.

Jul 13 • 4:24 PM EDT • Science • news.vt.edu

World Cup 2026: France, Spain, England & Argentina statistical analysis

BBC Sport compares statistics for France, Spain, Argentina and England in the World Cup so far as the semi-finalists prepare to meet.

Jul 13 • 7:05 AM EDT • Sports • bbc.com

When regulation is good for business

By now, I think I have established both my view that I am a fan of ESG investing and the benefits of regulating what is and isn’t a sustainable investment, and my view that in Europe, ESG regulation has gone too far and become too costly. It almost feels like the old Aristotelian maxim of doing things in moderation that leads to the best outcomes is valid in regulatory efforts as well. To give you an example, let’s look at a study by the National Bank of Belgium on the impact of the EU’s Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR) on fund flows of conventional and ESG funds. The SFDR was announced on 27 November 2019 and came into effect on 10 March 2021. It was implemented in several stages and split funds marketed in the EU into three broad categories: (i) Art. 6 funds that are basically conventional funds without any specific ESG integration, (ii) Art. 8 funds that ‘promote environmental or social characteristics’, which must provide additional reporting how they do that, and (iii) Art. 9 funds that are impact funds. The gaps between the announcement and the phased implementation give us an idea of how fund flows were affected by the regulation. It is clearly visible in the figure below that once the new regulation was announced and when it was initially implemented, fund flows in Art. 8 and Art. 9 funds increased significantly. Conventional Art. 6 funds also saw more inflows, but the increase was not statistically significant. I should add that the data below is pure fund flow, cleaned of performance effects and of any reclassified funds that moved from one classification to another. Note also that once the initial rush in ESG funds was over, additional, stricter regulatory requirements didn’t create that many new flows. This implies that with additional regulation, the funds incurred higher costs to comply but didn’t benefit in terms of new inflows and higher assets under management. Fund flows as the SFDR regulation was implemented in the EU Source: Emiris et al. (2026) When examining the drivers of these flows, the authors of the study found that institutional investors were more likely to switch to ESG funds and particularly so in countries where concerns about sustainability are culturally more accepted. In a society where buy-in into environmental and social risks is higher, private investors were shifting more of their assets into ESG funds as the regulation made it clear which funds are really green and which ones are not. And institutional investors in these countries did so as well, given the societal pressures and reputational risks of sticking with conventional funds. Meanwhile, fund managers reacted to the changing regulatory environment as well. Many funds that were mildly green before the regulation was announced became greener and more sustainable as the regulation was introduced to attract new assets and new investors. Cleverly, and unsurprisingly, these ESG funds also charge on average higher fees, which means that not only did fund managers gather fresh assets, but their profitability increased as well.

Jul 13 • 2:00 AM EDT • Business • klementoninvesting.substack.com

Shohei Ohtani, with 300th career home run, is crossing into legend status before our eyes

Homer No. 300 represents the first major statistical milestone of Ohtani's already storied big-league career.

Jul 7 • 10:27 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

Efzimfotase alfa demonstrated improvements in bone health in treatment-naïve pediatric patients with hypophosphatasia achieving median difference of 1.67 vs placebo in RGI-C Score at week 25 in MULBERRY Phase III trial

Positive results from the MULBERRY Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa (ALXN1850), an investigational enzyme replacement therapy, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health in children (2 to

Jun 28 • 3:45 PM EDT • Health • astrazeneca-us.com

Sports reporter sickened as prized notepads stolen

Chris Phillips' notepads contain statistics from Southend United games over the past 20 years.

Jun 25 • 12:47 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

‘A child goes to bed and doesn’t wake up’: the families left in shock after the sudden death of their healthy children

Sudden cardiac arrest is statistically rare but among the leading causes of death for children and young people. And families often have no idea of the risk until it’s too late

Jun 20 • 4:00 PM EDT • Health • theguardian.com

Here’s who’ll win the World Cup, according to science

Statisticians from across Europe teamed up to train a competition-predicting, machine learning algorithm. This is what they found.

Jun 20 • 7:00 AM EDT • Science • sciencefocus.com

​Breakthrough Science Meets Market Skepticism: Insight Molecular Diagnostics Inc. (IMDX)’s Defining Moment

Insight Molecular Diagnostics Inc. (NASDAQ:IMDX) is one of the high-growth micro-cap stocks to buy now. On June 11, Insight Molecular Diagnostics Inc. (NASDAQ:IMDX) announced the online publication in the American Journal of Transplantation of new data demonstrating the statistical superiority of its flagship GraftAssure transplant rejection monitoring assay. The study showed that the novel GraftAssure […]

Jun 19 • 2:17 PM EDT • Science • finance.yahoo.com

New Zealand scientists working on 'R' win major global award

Scientists working on the revolutionary 'R' programming language invented at the University of Auckland have won a top award intended to be a Nobel Prize for statisticians.

Jun 19 • 8:07 AM EDT • Science • phys.org

Rousseeuw Prize Recognizes R Core Team's Role in Advancing Global Data Science

NEW YORK, June 19, 2026 — Five members of the R Core Team have been awarded the prestigious Rousseeuw Prize for Statistics for their decades of work building and maintaining […]

Jun 19 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • hpcwire.com

Second Vanderbilt Health team wins NIH Replication Prize

Led by Simon Vandekar, PhD, a group of biostatisticians earned the honor for tools that help brain researchers tell strong, trustworthy findings from weak ones. Vanderbilt took two of 15 total NIH prizes.

Jun 12 • 10:18 AM EDT • Health • news.vumc.org

Inflation rose again in May as elevated energy prices squeeze consumers

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the consumer price index (CPI) inflation data for May which showed that inflation rose and remained persistently high last month.

Jun 10 • 8:32 AM EDT • Business • foxbusiness.com

2025-26 Season in Review: Brett Kulak

Vitals Player: Brett KulakBorn: Jan. 6, 1994 (32 years old)Height: 6-foot-1Weight: 192 poundsHometown: Edmonton, Alberta, CanadaShoots: LeftDraft: 2012 NHL Draft, fourth round, 14th pick (105th overall) by Calgary Flames2025-26 Statistics (with Pittsburgh): 25 games played; one goal; six assists; seven pointsContract Status: Entering unrestricted free agency on July 1 after completion of a four-year, $11,000,000 contract […]

Jun 10 • 6:00 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

Baton Rouge General's Health Tip of the Week: How health overconfidence is hurting men

Sponsored by Baton Rouge General A recent poll found that 65% of men believe they’re healthier than other men. Statistically, that can’t be true, but it may explain why so many skip preventive care. The reality is that conditions like high blood pressure, diabetes, heart disease, and some cancers can develop without obvious symptoms. That’s […]

Jun 10 • 2:01 AM EDT • Health • businessreport.com

An embarassing statistic for Commanders' defense

The last time that Washington shut out an opponent, George H.W. Bush was the US President.

Jun 9 • 4:51 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

We can create the future of science right now

Paul Litvak is the founder and Executive Director of the Robyn Dawes Institute and a Visiting Scholar at UC Berkeley. He has a PhD in Behavioral Decision Research from Carnegie Mellon where he studied emotions and the sunk cost bias. Over 15 years in industry, he solved a wide range of challenging technical problems. At Meta he created models optimizing the ad review process. At Google he ran experiments to measure social influence. At Airbnb, he was a product manager leading machine learning teams optimizing search ranking and price suggestions. He also co-founded and led product at Rhythmic Health, a venture-backed biosensing startup, creating an accurate low cost system using a color changing strip and a smart phone to measure salivary lactate. The bottleneck At this point, it is uncontroversial to say that science needs to stop using the PDF article as the unit of knowledge and currency. The unbearable slowness of scientific publishing, the profit motive and margins: I’m not saying anything new. The PDF also sucks because it’s hard to extract structured information, which makes it hard to do evidence synthesis. As a result, we do much less evidence synthesis than is needed. And evidence synthesis ultimately undergirds most policy and medical decision-making. I can see second-by-second real-time odds for any sporting or newsworthy event, but a school board can’t see the best evidence on whether their 8th graders should be taught algebra. As a society, we don’t treat this as an important problem. Again, not controversial. Not only is the problem well understood, but the solution has already been laid out. What we need is AI-assisted living evidence synthesis - (1) an open knowledge graph of atomic claims, (2) claims linked to evidence, (3) assessment and synthesis of each piece of evidence, and (4) continuous updating with new data. What few realize (yet) is that the technical capacity to build this vision for a significant portion of science already exists. Not only that, scientists and startup teams are already building many of these components. I know this because I’ve been surveying the space and talking to many of the builders. There are some missing pieces: for example, evaluations of how well some of the components work. But at this point, most of what’s missing is a fully end-to-end working integration of all of these parts. In the rest of this essay, I’m going to lay out all the parts of a working living evidence layer for science and who is working on them, and propose concrete next steps for building this system. What’s now possible The diagram above outlines the components of a living evidence synthesis platform, including some of the teams working on each component1. Scientific PDFs are processed into claims with associated evidence. The evidence is subjected to a forensic audit, methodological evaluation and robustness and reproducibility checks. Finally it’s given a weight in a continuously updating synthesis. What follows is a description and status of each component and a few of the teams working on them. Document understanding The first thing you need to be able to do is turn an article into structured data. Mostly that means parsing PDFs. There are often multicolumn layouts that confuse non-specialized PDF to text processing libraries. For scientific papers, there is the added complexity of parsing formulas and tables and figures. This is a really hot area - there are startups offering APIs, and it seems like a new open source package gets posted to Github every few weeks. What follows isn’t exhaustive. A package called GROBID was the state of the art for a while, they didn’t update their package for nearly two years until very recently. In the meantime reducto.ai released an AI powered PDF extraction API, PaddleOCR became popular, IBM released a model called Docling, and both Mistral and Gemini created models and libraries. I also know of at least one other well-funded psychology research group working on a paper parser. By contrast, there are few open evals in this space, with no extensive evals for complex table comprehension in particular. Nonetheless, I’m confident this will be a solved problem soon, given the combination of LLM advances and developer interest. Hypothesis level extraction There has been increasing interest in comprehending the extracted text of papers and linking information to evidence for each hypothesis. A lot of work has already been done. Trialstreamer (Marshall et al. 2020) and RobotReviewer LIVE (Marshall et al. 2023) demonstrated automated extraction of trial population, intervention, and outcome at scale on clinical RCTs. PaperQA2 (Skarlinski et al. 2024) and Ai2 ScholarQA (2024) extended this to retrieval-augmented question answering with citation grounding. Elicit, Consensus, and SciSpace operationalized claim-level extraction for end users. OpenEval (Booeshaghi et al. 2026) is the most recent and most ambitious: 1.96 million atomic claims extracted from 16,087 eLife manuscripts using Claude Sonnet 4.5, grouped into ~299,000 results, with LLM evaluations showing 81% agreement with human peer review on a 2,487-paper subset. None of these solutions link claims to test-statistics, as you would need to evaluate randomized controlled trials. This is why I built the evidence.guide API - to extract hypotheses and associated test statistics from behavioral science papers. The best public eval of this kind of extraction I’m aware of comes from the recent SCORE project - they had humans code thousands of psychology papers to extract their claims by hand. It would be extremely helpful to the world if all scientific PDFs were available as structured open data. I’ve been working to make this happen, both directly at Berkeley and through coordination with large entities I can’t yet speak of; as hard as it is to do, I think it’s possible2. Forensic audit A lot of work has been done on forensic audit, but some gaps remain. Of course, for biology papers that rely on images for evidence, there are a variety of tools (notably Proofig and ImageTwin) to spot anomalies. These are still well short of what sleuths like Elizabeth Bik can do on her own, but these tools are constant companions among fraud analysts. There’s someone working on auditing Excel files for anomalies, and a number of teams are automating numerical checks like GRIM and SPRITE, including Scrutiny project, the INSPECT-SR team as well as statcheck. The regcheck team is building a way to use AI to compare preregistrations to analyses in papers, to ensure there aren’t significant deviations. Nonetheless, there are many other kinds of anomalies to screen for, both public and less publicly known. And there are no formal evals for anomaly detection that I’m aware of. Still, there’s a lot to draw from in this space and I’m pretty certain we will be able to scan papers for most kinds of obvious anomalies in the near future. Methodological review This area has been white hot, though I fear for many of the startups in this space, because this capability may become commoditized. There are at least six different AI peer review companies, including Refine.ink, Reviewer3, ReviewerZero.ai, Q.E.D. Science, Paper Wizard, and Isitcredible. Coarse (a pun on refine) was also recently created as an open source alternative. These systems provide qualitative feedback on the content of papers, spotting methodological weaknesses and mathematical errors. They seem to work pretty well, and many academics report bitterly that they exceed the average quality of typical peer reviewers. But there are few evals here either. What evals exist so far involve using LLM-as-judge (circularity problems abound) or comparing against human reviews of questionable quality. What you’d ideally want is an eval that measures capturing known errors in papers3. Reproducibility and robustness Another active area has been using AI agents to automate computational reproducibility4 and robustness5 checks in papers that report numerical results. For more recent papers where data and code are available, AI agents can see whether they can re-run the analyses and produce the numbers reported in the published paper. In addition to a handful of individual academics who have been experimenting using Claude Code for this, the Institute for Replication is a leading group working on building an end to end system. The evals related to this problem are the most mature, with CORE-Bench (Siegel, Kapoor, Narayanan 2024) and PaperBench (OpenAI 2025) available to benchmark agents on this task. There is also work on getting AI agents to test alternative ways of analyzing the data to ensure the results are robust to small analytic design choices. Synthesis This is the most underdeveloped area where significant investment is required. Although some automated evidence synthesis systems exist — for example, otto-sr is building an AI agent to write systematic reviews — none of these incorporate the full range of paper level signals to weight evidence appropriately. Nor is there anything like an eval or a gold standard for a good systematic review. Arguably Cochrane reviews are the closest we have to gold standard human systematic reviews, though I’ve heard academics in the know complain about their uneven quality. A key question for a synthesis platform is how to weight anomalies and methodological issues in assessing the quality of a piece of evidence. This is an unsolved problem and one I’m very keen to work on. Continuous updating There are many pieces of basic infrastructure available for monitoring for new research and initiating updates. OpenAlex is the current open citation graph. Retraction Watch integrated into Crossref in October 2023. Scite tracks how citations support, contrast, or mention prior claims. The Living Evidence Network demonstrated continuous-update workflows in clinical guidelines. Engineering this is a relatively straightforward task. When you look over this technical architecture and all the progress being made, it’s hard not to be optimistic that a living guide to scientific evidence will be built. The stakeholders are ready The social infrastructure for this is starting to coalesce — it’s not just a pie in the sky academic exercise to imagine this coming into existence. Institutions like the Center for Open Science, the Institute for Replication, the INSPECT-SR, the Living Evidence Network and more are all working on scaling work to improve research quality. Funders are also aligned. The Sloan Foundation has funded living evidence work through COS. Coefficient Giving supports the Institute for Replication and COS. The Astera Institute and the Institute for Progress have shown interest in this space. NIH has established an Office for Replication and Reproducibility. Although there are (very unfortunately) serious headwinds in science funding generally, there is an active group of funders interested in metascience. A brief word about what I’ve been doing at RDI. First, as a Visiting Scholar at Berkeley I’ve been actively figuring out how a non-profit and a public university can conduct and make public the results of large-scale academic article data mining. With some of the money I raised from donors, I commissioned a legal analysis of recent case law and publisher text data mining (TDM) agreements in order to understand whether a massive open data mining of academic articles is possible (with caveats, it is). I’ve also been working to bring together stakeholders in this space, and identify gaps. I’ve also been doing some software development in this space, with more to come. A pilot proposal The assumption undergirding all of this is that an AI, given all this information, would make the right judgment about a scientific claim with lots of conflicting evidence, weighing all the factors appropriately. That’s the hypothesis we need to test. Randomized control trial research is the best place to focus on first. RCTs are used to make many of the important decisions in society - from medical trials to public policy changes. And they use a relatively uniform set of inferential statistics with lots of known and available diagnostics. Behavioral science experiments, within the broader realm of RCTs, should be first used as a testbed whose results can be generalized. Because behavioral science is at the vanguard of open science practices, replications abound (there are thousands of them) to serve as ground truth training data. Key Hypothesis Therefore the pilot would test, in behavioral RCTs that have been replicated, whether the quality of evidence for a claim can be used to accurately predict whether that claim will replicate. Secondary Hypotheses Compared to claims that replicated, non-replicated claims demonstrate a greater share of forensic anomalies in their source literatures. Hypothesis level claim and statistic extraction is accurate enough to scale living evidence without onerous human review costs. Replication prediction is more accurate than prediction markets6 or journal prestige. If all the different quality signals we gather do accurately predict which studies will replicate, then we can use that model to score evidence to power the living evidence layer. Why this is informative regardless of outcome If the pilot succeeds, the architecture extends to medical RCTs (where Living Evidence already operates and integration is mostly about claim representation), then to slices of basic biology with stable replication structure. If it fails, the field learns which quality signals are load-bearing and which ones metascience has oversold. Either result is a contribution to knowing what the literature supports. Implications for funders Because this burgeoning ecosystem of builders already exists, a well-informed philanthropic or government funder could play a crucial catalyzing role in bringing this future about. They could play at least three roles: creating open structured datasets, publishing open benchmarks and incentivizing the solving of key technical challenges. First, open archives of papers that the government maintains, like PubMed, could be turned into structured data amenable to large scale metascience and claim aggregation. I know the US government already has an interest in doing this, though some key open questions remain unanswered. How do you determine the best models and systems for accurately extracting information from papers? How can you establish a robust way to allow researchers to flag errors and correct them? And finally, how do you create a legal regime in working with publishers to maximize the scope of available papers? For the latter, a university or a private philanthropy may be better positioned to make structured data publicly available under journal subscription terms or fair use. Philanthropists or government funders could also coordinate to create or commission benchmarks that evaluate whether important problems have been solved. For example, an open benchmark for claim extraction from a range of different scientific article types would be extremely helpful. Ensuring the underlying data are accurate is vital for creating these evaluations. I’ve discussed opportunistically using various human-created datasets for this purpose, but a consistent problem is that errors in human data make it difficult for them to serve as a gold standard. Finally, with structured data and benchmarks available, the government or private philanthropy could use them to incentivize groups to develop machine learning systems that meet these benchmarks. Prizes are one potentially valuable tool for this. For example, you could establish a prize for a system that accurately updates a living meta-analysis for a small set of claims. Prizes are particularly useful as signals of problem importance, and can help create vibrant ecosystems of public and private research—see, for example the role the government played in kickstarting the current work on nuclear fusion. Conclusion The drawbacks of the current scientific publishing system are known. Scientists agree, metascientists agree, philanthropists agree: the published PDF plus citation graph isn’t the right substrate for maintaining a representation of the evidence base in science. The pieces needed to build the alternative either already exist or are rapidly taking shape. The community is forming around exactly this problem, with concrete partnerships and shared infrastructure. A pilot should start on behavioral science RCTs because that’s the slice of empirical science most amenable to legibility, where replication ground truth is richest, and where the failure modes are best documented. What’s been missing is the galvanizing mission to assemble these pieces into something that works. That’s what I’m proposing to build. *** 1 I have a broader field map that I’ll release publicly soon. This is me, building in public! 2 If this is something that you are excited about, please reach out and talk to me. 3 More on this very soon too! 4 This tests whether, given the code and the data, you can get the same statistics as reported in the published paper. 5 This tests whether the results are the same as a paper’s given alternative analytical decisions in conducting the analysis (like outlier omission). Closely related is the idea of a “multiverse” where you come up with many different ways of answering the same underlying research question with the same data, and test whether the results hold in all those alternative methods. There’s been work on the latter as well. 6 Some of the replications, e.g. those from the SCORE project, had paired the experiments with forecasts from prediction markets. So we get to look at this for free.

Jun 8 • 4:44 PM EDT • Science • goodscience.substack.com

US economy added 172,000 jobs in May, beating expectations

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 172,000 jobs were added in May, beating economist expectations of 85,000 while unemployment held at 4.3%.

Jun 5 • 8:31 AM EDT • Business • foxbusiness.com

Tide Statistics Entering Super Regional Play

The stat bro’s don’t love this team, but Al Davis would, “Just win baby!”

Jun 4 • 10:50 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

Scientists identify the origin of noise in spin qubit quantum processors

Charge noise arising from two-level fluctuators is considered to play a key role in causing qubit frequency shifts in silicon spin qubits, resulting in deteriorated gate fidelity. Higher temperatures can improve gate fidelity, but the microscopic origins of this effect and of qubit frequency shift have not yet been established. Now, using statistical simulations, researchers have clarified the parameter regimes under which gate fidelity can be improved and the potential origin of qubit frequency shifts.

Jun 4 • 8:00 PM EDT • Science • eurekalert.org

Several female teachers at Uxbridge High School diagnosed with breast cancer in recent years

Specialists are also reviewing the cases to “assess the statistical likelihood of common causes,” officials said.

Jun 3 • 11:22 AM EDT • Health • bostonglobe.com

Elections to top science bodies test Croatia’s gender equality in research

Croatia’s track-record on gender equality in science has been both questioned and lauded in recent months, following both bad and good news on the topic. On the one hand, a senior awards committee was announced without a single woman researcher included. On the other, the national science academy welcomed its first cohort of fellows with more women than men.Members of the committee, which gives national awards recognising scientific achievement, are proposed by the ministry of science and endorsed by the parliament. The current line-up does include a woman, but she is culture minister Nina Obuljen Koržinek rather than a researcher. Even then, she didn’t make it into the photograph released to announce the appointments on April 16. “The image speaks a thousand words,” says Tanja Rudež, a science journalist for Jutarnji List newspaper. “I am surprised that none of these men, all well-known scientists, saw a problem with the fact that there was not a single successful female scientist on the committee,” she told Science|Business.Ivan Đikić, a prominent Croatian biochemist based at Goethe University Medical School, commented on LinkedIn that the news illustrated a “sad truth” about the state of science in Croatia.“It [. . .] reveals a system where women, despite contributing a substantial share of high-quality, internationally competitive science, are systematically excluded from the very processes that determine recognition and influence,” he wrote. Some 60% of researchers in Croatia are women, according to the Croatian Bureau of Statistics, and they perform well in international competitions. For example, of the 12 European Research Council (ERC) grants awarded to Croatian researchers, seven went to women.“So how is it possible that decision-making bodies are still dominated by men over 60, while not a single female ERC laureate is involved in the selection process?” asked Đikić. “This is not a marginal oversight; it is a structural failure.” The ministry of science did not reply to a request for comment. The awards committee is not unusual. For example, a scientific advisory body announced by the ministry of demographics in April comprises 35 men and five women. The board of the Croatian Science Foundation, newly appointed by the parliament, is a little better, with five men and two women, but still unequal. “This is especially significant because such bodies do not merely distribute prestige. They shape research priorities, funding allocation and long-term scientific development,” Marija Lugarić, chair of the parliament’s committee on gender equality, told Science|Business. “Representation here matters not only symbolically, but materially.”Referring to the awards committee and the board of the science foundation, Lugarić says that while both bodies were appointed by parliament, neither met the minimum 40% gender balance threshold that Croatian law and EU guidelines expressly recommend for public bodies.Đikić wants to see EU institutions put pressure on the government to ensure basic standards of fairness, transparency and democratic governance in science policy are met. “Meaningful change will not come without pressure,” he wrote. “It must intensify both within Croatia and at the level of European institutions. Anything less undermines the credibility of Europe’s commitment to excellence and inclusion in science.”Rudež also underlined the importance of talking and writing about this topic, “because public opinion in Croatia does influence changes in the status and visibility of women in science.”The European Commission has not yet responded to a request for comment.Good news from the academyA more positive story came from the Croatian Academy of Sciences and Arts on 21 May, with the announcement of seven new women fellows and five men. This is the first time in the academy’s 165-year history that women have outnumbered men in a new intake.One of the new fellows, two-time ERC grantee Iva Tolić, credits the academy leadership with trying to be more modern and inclusive, representing the whole community better. “The academy is really aware that so far, before this election, there were very few women,” she told Science|Business. “So, they are actively trying to make this more equal.”Related articlesExplained: How the MSCA is close to achieving gender balanceCall for EU to leverage academic freedom in global talent raceRudež is more cautious, noting that despite the academy’s “breakthrough this year [. . .] it is still a predominantly male institution, with only 18% women.”This reflects a wider imbalance in Croatia’s research landscape. “The key levers of power in science are still in the hands of men,” she went on. “For example, all 14 rectors of private and public universities are men.”Similarly, Lugarić says a structural glass ceiling still exists in Croatian science, which is “most visible precisely where power is exercised.”She cites data from the Commission’s She Figures 2024 report, which shows that Croatia ranks second in the EU for gender equality in research and innovation overall, with an equality index of 79.6 out of 100. It is in the top five for women’s career advancement, participation in research; representation across all research sectors and for scientific publications.In stark contrast, it ranks second to last when it comes to women in decision-making positions in science. “This is not a coincidence,” Lugarić says. “It is a structural pattern.”Informal barriersThe persistent under-representation of women in the highest structures of Croatia’s academies, boards, award committees and leadership positions is not down to formal barriers, Lugarić says, but arises from more subtle obstacles such as “informal networks, persistent expectations regarding traditional gender roles and the unequal distribution of care responsibilities.”Tolić would like to see more support for young women in terms of affordable housing and child support, and higher salaries. Currently, she says, salaries in science stay low for the first 10-15 years, while housing and spaces in kindergarten are limited and expensive. “You have to work a lot, you get very little money, so it’s not great to have a family in this situation,” she says.But despite the challenges, Tolić is optimistic, saying that gender equality in research in Croatia is “definitely improving and going in the right direction.” The situation is particularly promising in biology, she adds, where most full professors, heads of department and deans of faculties are women. Lugarić, too, see the glass ceiling “very slowly, cracking,” and cites the academy election as an example that structural change is possible. Yet the situation in the national awards committee is a “stark reminder that without a conscious, systemic commitment to gender balance, progress will remain slow and uneven.”

Jun 3 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • sciencebusiness.net

Chicago Bears Over/Under Player Milestone Predictions (Part 2)

Our guy @GOOCH1701 is back with some Bears over/under statistical predictions.

May 31 • 2:00 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

Internal poll shows Leela Gray in statistical tie with Anna Paulina Luna

The PPP poll found the Democrat at 39% to the GOP incumbent's 41%.

May 28 • 4:15 AM EDT • Politics • floridapolitics.com

One map shows the highest-paying job in every state

Business Insider used Bureau of Labor Statistics data to find the best-paying job on average for all 50 states and Washington, DC.

May 26 • 5:24 AM EDT • Business • businessinsider.com

NWSL Matchweek 9: Top goals and saves

Check out this week’s best goals and saves from a statistical perspective!

May 25 • 1:00 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

May 31: "Stadium Sling Bag Giveaway" presented by the Rich Entertainment Group, as Bisons host IronPigs (1pm)

The Official Site of Minor League Baseball web site includes features, news, rosters, statistics, schedules, teams, live game radio broadcasts, and video clips.

May 22 • 10:45 AM EDT • Entertainment • milb.com

Kudos to Cheer Club, College of Business faculty, Cybersecurity team and more

Becky Cottrell, Ph.D., Department of Social Work, and Bridget Arend, Ph.D., School of Education Becky Cottrell from the Department of Social Work and Bridget Arend, Ph.D., from the School of Education co-authored an article recently published in an international journal. Read the article. Biff Baker, Ph.D., College of Business Biff Baker, Ph.D., received a Best in Track award from the Society for Advancement of Management for research examining bureaucratic inefficiencies within Section 8 subsidized housing programs. The study focuses on how administrative delays and communication breakdowns can create housing instability for families and discourage landlord participation. It also offers recommendations to improve accountability and trust in public housing systems. Brendan Fry, Ph.D., Department of Mathematics and Statistics Brendan Fry, Ph.D., professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics, co-authored the article “Modeling the Impact of Venous Collapsibility on Retinal Oxygenation,” published in the Journal of Theoretical Biology. The interdisciplinary research brought together scholars from the University of Delaware, Indiana University Indianapolis, McGill University and the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai Hospital. Access the article. Bridget Arend, Ph.D., School of Education Bridget Arend, Ph.D., professor in the School of Education, co-published the book “Facilitating Seven Ways of Learning: A Resource for More Purposeful, Effective, and Enjoyable College Teaching, Second Edition” with James R. Davis. The book explores practical approaches to improving college teaching and student learning experiences. Buy the book. College of Business Faculty At the 2026 Western Decision Sciences Institute international conference, Sally Baalbaki-Yassine, Ph.D., Debora Gilliard, Ph.D., and David Lynn Hoffman, Ph.D., from the College of Business received the Best Case Study Paper Award for “Oreo: A Global Success Story in Brand Evolution and Market Leadership.” Lisa McVicker, Ph.D., and Apryl Brodersen, Ph.D., also had their paper, “Electronic Performance Monitoring: Employer Panacea or Legal Quagmire?” accepted for publication in the Journal of Business Leadership. Community Engagement Exchange Program Metropolitan State University of Denver was selected to host international Fellow Aleja Henao Espitia of Bogotá, Colombia through the Community Engagement Exchange program funded by the U.S. Department of State. View Espitia's LinkedIn profile. David Varel, Ph.D., College of Letters, Arts and Sciences MSU Denver historian David Varel, Ph.D., has been awarded a 2026 ACLS Fellowship by the American Council of Learned Societies. The fellowship program supports outstanding scholarship in the humanities and social sciences, and selected just 63 scholars from more than 2,000 applicants this year. Varel’s project, “The Black Chicago School: Academic Activism in the Age of American Apartheid,” explores the work of Black scholars who challenged scientific racism, built alternative institutions and helped lay the foundation for the modern civil rights movement. The fellowship provides up to $60,000 to support full-time research and writing. Learn more about the fellowship. MSU Denver Office of Financial Aid Team Several MSU Denver employees were recognized for leadership and service during the Colorado Association of Financial Aid Administrators (CAFAA) conference held in May in Crested Butte. Don Holtzen, interim associate director of systems, chaired the conference and was recognized for his service as CAFAA conference chair and technology chair during the 2025-26 term. Holtzen also received the Postsecondary Institution Professional of the Year award, which recognizes financial-aid professionals who have made significant contributions to their institutions and to CAFAA. Tori Pacheco, associate director of Student Services, helped design décor and facilitate the conference and was recognized for her service as CAFAA secretary during the 2025-26 term. Destiny Candelaria, call center coordinator, served on the conference planning committee and presented on One Stops during the event. Michael Nguyen, executive director of Financial Aid and Scholarships, assisted as a CAFAA board member and was recognized for serving as president-elect during the 2025-26 term. Richard Balbag, program assistant I, received the Distinguished Support Staff Member of the Year award, honoring staff members who have made exceptional contributions to their financial-aid offices. Military Friendly Recognition Military Friendly has awarded MSU Denver Gold Status as a military-friendly university and ranked the University No. 7 nationally for military spouses. The recognition reflects MSU Denver’s strong support systems for veterans and military spouses, including transfer credit assistance and retention-focused resources. As of 2026, 1,050 military-connected students are enrolled at the University, advancing institutional priorities around serving veterans and supporting student retention. MSU Denver Cheer Club The MSU Denver Cheer Club earned third place in the 4-Year College Small Coed Intermediate division at the USA Spirit Nationals. Celebrate the win on Instagram. MSU Denver Cybersecurity Team An MSU Denver cybersecurity team earned first place in the Strategist category at the 2026 CYBER RECon National Competition hosted at Fort Meade, Maryland, by U.S. Cyber Command. Led by Jeffrey London, Ph.D., and undergraduate student Matthew Bopp, the team competed against universities and law schools nationwide with its 30-page legal analysis on cybersecurity and free speech titled “Freedom of Speech and MDM: Misinformation, Disinformation, and Malinformation.” The paper also earned Bopp a personal invitation to apply to the University of Maryland School of Law. MSU Denver Debate Team MSU Denver Debate won the 2026 Sierra Sustainability Summit hosted at Yosemite National Park in April. Students Kat Conte and Simon Bernhard bested teams from George Washington University, Gallaudet University, Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, the University of San Francisco and Tennessee Tech in the modified present-and-defend style competition. Their proposal recommended adapting Colorado’s Keep Colorado Wild Pass model to support California state parks facing budget constraints. Learn about the summit. MSU Denver Women’s Golf MSU Denver Women’s Golf was represented on the national stage this month as junior Neige Dunn competed as an individual at the NCAA West Regional. She became the first Roadrunner in 10 years to qualify for NCAA Regionals as an individual. Get the details.

May 18 • 5:59 PM EDT • Business • early-bird.msudenver.edu

[Report] WHO: Global health gains face threat of reversal

WHO published the World Health Statistics 2026 report showing the world is falling short on health targets, with progress uneven, slowing, and in some areas reversing.

May 17 • 5:32 PM EDT • Health • eatg.org

Jeremiah Smith, Colin Simmons among college football's active statistical leaders entering 2026 season

College football enters 2026 with an unusually deep group of returning producers across every major statistical category

May 16 • 10:49 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com

Tiny ocean life helps scientists estimate whale prevalence off the California coast

A new approach to better assessing whale population data has emerged, led by a research team of marine biologists from Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego and statisticians from Cal Poly. ...

May 14 • 5:00 PM EDT • Science • phys.org

Eurovision Song Contest: what the science of statistics reveals about an infamous voting scandal

In 2022, six jury scores from the second semi-final were nullified on grounds of collusion.

May 14 • 11:46 AM EDT • Science • theconversation.com

Global health gains face threat of reversal

The world is falling short on health targets, with progress uneven, slowing, and in some areas reversing, according to the World Health Statistics 2026 report, published today by the World Health Organization (WHO).

May 13 • 8:00 AM EDT • Health • who.int

Scientists discover hidden chemical signature that could reveal alien life

Scientists may have found a powerful new way to hunt for alien life — not by searching for specific molecules, but by looking for hidden patterns in how those molecules are organized. Researchers discovered that living systems leave behind a kind of chemical “fingerprint” in the statistical distribution of amino acids and fatty acids, one that consistently differs from nonliving chemistry.

May 11 • 8:00 PM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com

New method sharpens the search for alien biology

New UCR research shows that the search for life beyond Earth could benefit from a statistical approach that prioritizes patterns rather than searching for individual chemical or molecular traces.

May 11 • 1:23 PM EDT • Science • news.ucr.edu

‘Population autopsy’ finds the US with more avoidable deaths than other wealthy countries

The United States appears to be leading all high-income countries in an unfortunate, distinctly undesirable statistical category.

May 10 • 9:52 PM EDT • Health • healthexec.com

Is the FDA Really Suppressing Science? Plus. . .

It’s Thursday, May 7. This is The Front Page, your daily window into the world of The Free Press—and our take on the world at large. Today: Aaron MacLean says Trump is poised to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in the Iran war. Joe Klein on the life of CNN founder Ted Turner. Jillian Lederman on why cruise ships are here to stay. And much more. But first: Is the FDA suppressing science? On Tuesday, The New York Times published a story with an alarming takeaway. “FDA Blocked Publication of Research Finding Covid and Shingles Vaccines Were Safe,” read the headline. It is the latest in a string of stories that all have the same message: The Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and other agencies, are engaged in a cover-up—and silencing scientists trying to get the word out about the Covid vaccine. What all these stories suggest—some more subtly than others—is that the outsiders now running the public health establishment, officials such as Marty Makary at the FDA and Jay Bhattacharya at the National Institutes of Health, are on a revenge tour. That they are doing harm to the country to get back at the scientists and bureaucrats who ostracized them for deviating from the public-health consensus during the pandemic. It’s a seductive narrative. But is it true? That’s the question we address in our latest editorial. —The Editors Read [ Marty Makary's FDA Has All the Right Enemies ](https://www.thefp.com/p/marty-makary-vaccine-study-fda) [ Trump Blinks First ](https://www.thefp.com/p/iran-peace-deal-pakistan-trump-strait-of-hormuz) Aaron MacLean In return for no detectable concessions, President Trump this week gave up on forcing open the Strait of Hormuz. Now, the Trump administration looks desperate for a deal to end the war with Iran. It’s easy to understand the desire to end the war, but are they blowing the chance at victory? Aaron MacLean makes sense of the administration’s latest moves—and Iran’s response—in his column today. Read full story Aaron MacLean and Niall Ferguson: Live in New York City Join Aaron MacLean and Niall Ferguson on May 19 for a live recording of School of War at the iconic New York Historical. In a conversation as timely as it is wide-ranging, Aaron and Niall will explore the strategic stakes of the moment, including the Middle East, China, and the future of American leadership on the global stage. Get Tickets Now [ Ted Turner, the Optimist Who Built CNN ](https://www.thefp.com/p/ted-turner-cnn-tribute) Joe Klein The man who gave us CNN and the 24-hour news cycle, Ted Turner, died Wednesday at the age of 87. Today, political writer Joe Klein—who almost ghostwrote Turner’s autobiography—remembers his friend, the American media mogul who stood out for his idealism and lack of a filter—something that got Turner in trouble more than once. “His was not a traditional intelligence, but one of horizon: Ted saw things before other people did,” Joe writes. Read full story [ Nothing Can Sink the Cruise Ship ](https://www.thefp.com/p/cruise-ship-hantavirus) Jillian Lederman A viral outbreak on a cruise ship that left three passengers dead has left some people wondering: Are cruise ships on the way out? Not so fast, says Jillian Lederman, who has been on many a cruise herself. Read her piece on why 38 million people a year take a cruise—and aren’t about to stop. Read full story [ The Great Writers Who Were Terrible People ](https://www.thefp.com/p/the-great-writers-who-were-terrible) Shilo Brooks Throughout history, some of the greatest literary geniuses have also been immoral bigots. In the latest episode of Old School, Shilo Brooks is joined by Eli Lake for a conversation about those geniuses, from Voltaire to Norman Mailer and Roald Dahl—and why we should read their work despite their odious prejudices. Listen on MORE FROM THE FREE PRESS [ Inside the Digital Intifada ](https://www.thefp.com/p/digital-intifada-social-media-hamas-terror) Warren Kinsella Read full story [ This Week in American History: Trump’s Over-Arching Problem ](https://www.thefp.com/p/this-week-in-american-history-trumps-over-arching-problem) Jonathan Horn Read full story [ Humanity Is Still Evolving—and Fast ](https://www.thefp.com/p/humanity-is-still-evolvingand-fast) Razib Khan Read full story THE NEWS Thirteen D.C. Metropolitan Police officers have been placed on administrative leave and could face termination after an internal investigation found evidence that crime statistics were manipulated to make the city look safer. The Republican-led House Oversight Committee previously alleged that former D.C. police chief Pamela Smith pressured officers to skew data. Tennessee Republicans unveiled a redrawn U.S. House map yesterday that would split up Memphis’s black-majority Democratic district, the latest move in a nationwide push to redraw congressional boundaries ahead of the midterms. The effort follows a Supreme Court ruling last week on Louisiana’s districts, which Tennessee House Speaker Cameron Sexton said gave states the green light to redraw maps along partisan lines. Israel struck Beirut for the first time since a ceasefire with Hezbollah took effect last month, saying it targeted a commander of the militant group’s elite Radwan force in the city’s southern suburbs. The strikes risk destabilizing that truce at a delicate moment, as Iran and the U.S. report progress toward a deal to resolve their own standoff. The U.S. Air Force is aiming for a Fourth of July delivery of a Boeing 747 gifted by Qatar, hoping to add it to the Air Force One fleet in time for the U.S.’s 250th anniversary, Reuters reported. (For more on the controversy surrounding the aircraft, read Jed Rubenfeld’s piece “It’s a Terrible Idea, but Trump Probably Can Accept a Free Jet from Qatar.”) Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick testified privately before Congress that he has no memory of why he and his family dined on Jeffrey Epstein’s private island in 2012, according to Reuters. The admission contradicts Lutnick’s earlier claim that he had cut ties with the convicted sex offender well before that visit. Weeks before a former JPMorgan investment banker filed a lawsuit packed with explosive allegations, the bank reportedly offered him $1 million to settle his sexual assault and harassment claims, according to The Wall Street Journal. The suit, filed by Chirayu Rana, alleges he was sexually assaulted by a female colleague, subjected to racial discrimination, and forced into a degrading dynamic at work. JPMorgan says the claims lack merit, and the female colleague’s lawyers call the accusations fabricated. A new report from the Hartford Institute for Religion Research shows that, for the first time in roughly 20 years, church attendance is trending upward, with more people volunteering and clergy expressing renewed optimism. The study’s authors described the findings, based on a survey of more than 7,400 congregations, as showing signs of widespread recovery from low attendance numbers.

May 7 • 6:20 AM EDT • Science • thefp.com

Politicians are not ignoring you, statistical analysis suggests

If you're registered to vote in the United States and you're not among the richest of the rich, political scientist Peter K. Enns has a message for you: Your voice still matters. So does data analysis ...

May 4 • 6:40 PM EDT • Politics • phys.org

One big question: What's the biggest challenge of running a small business in Louisiana?

While large corporations tend to dominate the headlines of business pages, statistics show small businesses serve as the backbone of the American economy.

May 4 • 5:00 AM EDT • Business • nola.com

The problem with healthy life expectancy

A crude blend of very different statistics is not the best tool for the job

May 2 • 12:00 AM EDT • Health • ft.com

UNITE HERE Urges Other PENN Entertainment Shareholders to Support Proposal to Declassify the Board

UNITE HERE urges PENN (NASDAQ: PENN) shareholders to vote to declassify the Board and move to annual director elections at the AGM on June 16, 2026. The group says shareholders previously backed declassification in 2010 and cites industry norms, peer comparators, and 2025 proxy-vote statistics to argue annual elections improve accountability.UNITE HERE challenges PENN's regulatory and stability defenses, notes PENN reported 42 properties in 19 states and operations in 28 jurisdictions, and calls for alignment with peers that already use annual elections.

Apr 30 • 10:05 AM EDT • Entertainment • stocktitan.net

Turn health data into impact: Browns University's online master in biostatistics & health data science

Trained biostatisticians play a central role in clinical science and public health. Brown’s online master’s in biostatistics (health data science concentration), prepares you with a strong foundation in biostatistical and data science methods combined with rigorous training in applied skills to make critical data-driven decisions and meet the growing demand for leaders in this industry – on your schedule

Apr 27 • 1:00 AM EDT • Science • biospace.com

bulls

The Official Site of Minor League Baseball web site includes features, news, rosters, statistics, schedules, teams, live game radio broadcasts, and video clips.

Apr 22 • 10:18 AM EDT • Business • milb.com

Special Seminar

Speaker – Lenny Smith, Professor, Virginia Tech. Hosted by Walt Robinson. Title – Reflection versus Regurgitation: Simulation, Statistics, and Insight from Fitzroy to ECMWF’s AIFS. (link to relevant paper) Abstract – There is considerable…

Apr 20 • 11:41 AM EDT • Science • meas.sciences.ncsu.edu

Discover, explore and analyse business statistics

Have you ever wished you could see how a certain economic activity is performing without drowning in datasets or spreadsheets? Meet the Business sector profiles: your one-stop gateway for fast insights, easy to grasp comparisons and deep dives into the EU’s business economy. This tool puts everything in one place offering...

Apr 20 • 5:00 AM EDT • Business • ec.europa.eu

Scientists think alien life might be hiding in patterns

A new study proposes detecting life in space by spotting patterns across many planets instead of focusing on one at a time. If life spreads and changes planetary environments, it could leave behind statistical clues linking planets together. These patterns may reveal life even when traditional biosignatures are unclear or misleading. The method could help scientists prioritize which planets are most likely to host life.

Apr 15 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com

A new way to detect life beyond Earth without knowing what life looks like

Researchers from the Earth-Life Science Institute (ELSI) and National Institute for Basic Biology have developed a new method to detect extraterrestrial life without relying on traditional biosignatures. By modelling how life might spread between planets, they demonstrate that life could be detected through statistical patterns across planetary populations rather than on individual planets. This "agnostic biosignature" approach could assist in guiding future searches for life beyond Earth.

Apr 14 • 8:00 PM EDT • Science • eurekalert.org

Spain Business Confidence Falls 2.3% in 2Q, Most Since 4Q 2022

Spain’s business confidence fell 2.3% in the second quarter compared with the first quarter, the biggest decline since the end of 2022, according to data from the Spanish statistics office. The survey showed 21% of business establishments expect a favorable quarter, while 16% are pessimistic about their business outlook.

Apr 14 • 5:41 AM EDT • Business • bloomberg.com

What are the odds? CMU sports betting class explores statistical, cognitive sides of gambling

In 2018, Ron Yurko was researching sports analytics as a Ph.D. student at Carnegie Mellon University when the Supreme Court legalized sports betting. Suddenly,...

Apr 14 • 4:00 AM EDT • Sports • post-gazette.com

Now Hiring: SSM Health in need of medical assistants

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics says careers for medical assistants are growing "much faster" compared to other professions.

Apr 13 • 7:00 AM EDT • Health • spectrumnews1.com

“AI polls” are fake polls

A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.

Apr 11 • 11:38 AM EDT • Technology • natesilver.net

Inflation surged in March as Iran war's energy impact hit consumers

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest consumer price index data which showed that CPI inflation surged in March as the Iran war's imapct took a toll on consumer prices.

Apr 10 • 8:31 AM EDT • Business • foxbusiness.com

Pick of the stats: Southampton v Derby County

BBC Sport highlights some of the key statistics and facts for the Championship match between Southampton and Derby County

Apr 9 • 5:43 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

Business Formation Statistics Monthly Data Release

Explore timely and high frequency information on new business applications and formations.

Apr 8 • 12:00 AM EDT • Business • census.gov

STAT 4000 introduces students across Auburn to data science foundations

STAT 4000: Introduction to Data Science gives students across Auburn a hands-on foundation in data analysis, AI literacy and statistical reasoning. Taught by instructors in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics, the course equips students to work confidently and critically with data in a wide range of fields.

Apr 6 • 8:00 PM EDT • Science • wire.auburn.edu

MassLive: Boston, Springfield land on top 10 list of best cities for STEM professionals

Boston and Springfield were among the "Top 10 best metro areas for STEM professionals" in 2018, according to statistics compiled by WalletHub, a personal finance website. STEM stands for science, technology, engineering and mathematics. Boston was ranked second and Springfield eighth on the list. Worcester came in at 18th. The full results can be found here. "We made another good list," Springfield Mayor Domenic Sarno said. "Glad to see our educational and workforce development are starting to pay off - this is all about a good four-letter word - jobs!" The 100 largest metropolitan areas in the country were ranked in 17 key metrics, WalletHub said. The evaluation ranged from "per-capita job openings for STEM graduates to annual median growth for STEM jobs, to projected demand for STEM workers by 2020," according to the summary. Seattle was top-rated, followed in order by Boston; Pittsburgh; Austin, Texas; Minneapolis; Madison, Wisconsin; Salt Lake City; Springfield; Chicago; and Atlanta. Original article: https://www.masslive.com/news/index.ssf/2018/11/springfield_makes_top_10_natio.html

Apr 3 • 5:06 PM EDT • Health • springfield-ma.gov

Poll: Plurality of Marylanders back the Birds rather than the Nationals

Baseball is a game of stats and nothing says statistics like a good poll. In the third part of its latest poll, the UMBC Institute of Politics asked about baseball -- about 4 in 10 said they were Orioles fans -- news consumption and general political knowledge

Apr 2 • 12:01 AM EDT • Politics • marylandmatters.org

Going to Bat: Small business initiative returns for 2026

The Official Site of Minor League Baseball web site includes features, news, rosters, statistics, schedules, teams, live game radio broadcasts, and video clips.

Apr 1 • 8:00 AM EDT • Business • milb.com

Using advanced statistics and AI to improve health | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health

Matlin Gilman, PhD ‘26, studies the real-world health effects of policy decisions and builds artificial intelligence tools to advance health care.

Mar 31 • 12:30 PM EDT • Science • hsph.harvard.edu

Using advanced statistics and AI to improve health | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health

Matlin Gilman, PhD ‘26, studies the real-world health effects of policy decisions and builds artificial intelligence tools to advance health care.

Mar 31 • 12:30 PM EDT • Health • hsph.harvard.edu

Canadian Adults’ Functional Health Has Declined

Worsening emotional health and increased prevalence of pain are the main causes of the decline in Canadians’ functional health from 2015 to 2024, says Statistics Canada.

Mar 29 • 8:00 PM EDT • Health • medscape.com

With the Cardinals Intent on Protecting the Health of Ivan Herrera, the Club Could Notch A Statistical Oddity Early in the Season

Mar 28 • 2:04 PM EDT • Health • sports.yahoo.com