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After 40 Years, Physicists Finally Observe The 'Energy Ladder' at Quantum Tipping Points
"To see those predictions borne out is a beautiful thing."
Microsoft’s top science exec is leaving to fulfill a childhood dream: Joining a Formula 1 team
Peter Lee, the longtime Microsoft Research leader, plans to join the Mercedes Formula 1 team in a newly created AI advisor role. He'll work on physics problems for the team's car, predictive models and how F1's regulators might govern AI.
In 1960, scientists predicted the world would end on November 13, 2026
And yes, doomsday falls on Friday the 13th.
In 1960, scientists predicted the world would end on November 13, 2026
And yes, doomsday falls on Friday the 13th.
Mavs Trade of Kyrie Irving? 'Makes Sense,' Predicts NBA Analyst
Kyrie Irving was named the Mavericks player who should be traded as Dallas balances his return with Cooper Flagg's long-term timeline.
ESPN predicts FSU's remaining schedule after Louisville loss
ESPN’s updated Matchup Predictor lowered Florida State’s win probability in each of its final six games following the Seminoles’ loss to Louisville.
Guardians-Rays predictions. Who wins Game 2 of ALCS?
With the Guardians up 1-0 in the series, here are our predictions ALCS Game 2 against the Rays.
Remembering 1970 Britain — a cautionary tale
Well, if you listen to the polls and the political talking heads these days, in less than a month we will see a blue something sweep across the electoral map. Some say a blue wave and bolder predictors claim a blue tsunami is coming. Heck, I’ve even seen a prediction that Kansas might elect a […]
From Melbourne to Madrid, housing is shaping modern politics. But who benefits?
Housing crises across advanced economies are reshaping political loyalties, but which parties reap the rewards is hard to predict.
Microsoft science chief Lee to advise Mercedes on AI
Departing Microsoft Science president Peter Lee plans to advise Mercedes on AI applications ranging from car physics to predictive modeling and regulation,...
‘Play On!’ hits all the right notes
The English Renaissance meets the Harlem Renaissance in “Play On!,” a sparkling show that marries a loose adaptation of Shakespeare's “Twelfth Night” with the music of Duke Ellington. Conceived by Sheldon Epps, who also directed the original 1996-97 production (first in San Diego, then on Broadway), the show is getting a marvelous revival under his direction to open Chicago Shakespeare Theater's 40th anniversary season.While the title “Play On!” refers to the famous quote about music being the food of love and thus to the dozens of Ellington songs—among them “It Don’t Mean a Thing,” “Don’t Get Around Much Anymore,” “I Got It Bad (And That Ain't Good),” “Solitude” and “I’m Beginning to See the Light”—incorporated into the plot, one of the highlights for me is the clever way Cheryl L. West's book reworks the story. Apparently, it's also been updated for this outing, among other things to give the women more agency. In the big opening number (there's a six-piece, horn-heavy onstage band), aspiring songwriter Vy (Hailee Kaleem Wright) is the one to “Take the 'A' Train” to “Drop Me Off in Harlem.” She wants to meet the famous Duke (Edred Utomi) — Ellington, not Orsino, that is — and she seeks the help of Jester (an engaging James Harkness) to find out how. When Jester tells her in no uncertain terms that the music industry is a man's world, she disguises herself as Vy-Man and persuades the Duke to listen to one of her songs. He's suffering from a creative block because he's pining for Lady Liv (Krystal Joy Brown), queen of the Cotton Club, and convinces Vy-Man to bring the Lady the song as if the Duke had written it, promising to reward her with employment. Vy reluctantly complies, and the predictable complications ensue. Lady Liv is attracted to Vy-Man, while Vy is attracted to the Duke and he to Vy, though it disturbs him because he thinks she's a man. The fallout when the deception comes to light bodes ill—at least for a while.Here's where West's book cannily diverges from Shakespeare. Vy's twin brother Sebastian really is dead, so West devises another love interest for Lady Liv basically by rehabilitating the Malvolio character, here named Rev (Alan H. Green), the Lady's uptight, self-important manager. His unrequited love for her is magically transformed after he gets his comeuppance (minus the torture) from Miss Mary (Alanna Lovely), her honey Sweets (James Earl Jones II) and Jester, the stand-in for Sir Toby, who has romantic problems of his own with a woman named CC (Kaylah Janssen). In other words, Rev gets the girl — and also a show-stopping yellow zoot suit from costume designer An-Lin Dauber. All the costumes are dandy, though those for the men have more pizzazz than the women's day dresses. The bilevel, slanted scenic design by Beowulf Boritt brings 1930s Harlem to life in a slightly expressionistic way with the help of Adam Honoré's lighting and Ray Nardelli's sound design. Edgar Godineaux's choreography adds to the period feel, though there could be even more of it.Most of all, the leads have splendid voices, and the performances are terrific. Green's Rev and Harkness's Jester get my vote for comedy chops, and Brown's Lady Liv probably will stay with me the longest for her complexity and big blues number, “I Ain't Got Nothin' But the Blues.”
Scientists Predicted Humanity Would End on November 13, 2026. Should We Be Worried?
For decades, a doomsday equation predicted population growth better than most experts, until falling birth rates undermined its forecast of catastrophe in 2026. In 1960, Science, one of the world’s leading science journals, published an article with an unambiguous title: Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026. It predicted that on this future date—just over a
Broadcom Is Building an AI Business Unlike Nvidia’s. Here’s My Price Prediction
Broadcom competes with Nvidia without selling a single GPU to the general market, and that unusual strategy has locked in hyperscaler contracts stretching years into the future. Whether the stock has already priced in that advantage is the question worth answering.
Scientists reaffirm ‘incontrovertible’ evidence of human influence on climate
The scientific evidence for human-caused global warming is stronger than ever, according to a major new review in Earth’s Future, AGU’s journal for research on the state of the planet and its inhabitants, sustainable and resilient societies, the science of the Anthropocene and predictions of our common future – despite a United States government report questioning the science.
AI Is Only as Smart as the Data Behind It
The unglamorous discipline of data quality is quietly deciding which AI projects succeed — and which quietly fail. A few years ago, I sat in a conference room while a retail client showed off a new demand-forecasting model. The dashboard looked impressive: clean charts, confident predictions, a color scheme that seemed to say, “we’ve arrived.” […]
ESPN analyst predicts Texas A&M vs. The Citadel
ESPN analyst Bill Connelly predicts that Texas A&M will defeat The Citadel 53-0 on Saturday.
Guardians-Rays predictions. Who wins 2026 ALCS?
Here are our series predictions as the Guardians take on the Rays in the ALCS with a trip to the World Series on the line.
2027 Oscars power rankings: Top 10 best picture contenders right now
With the fall festivals in the books, awards columnist Glenn Whipp surveys the landscape and offers his first bold prediction of the 10 best picture nominees.
NHL’s New Wave of GMs Are Built Different: ‘I Am In the Prediction Business’
“I am in the prediction business,” Devils GM Sunny Mehta tells FOS.
Playoff Predictor: Georgia, Alabama lead inevitable SEC domination of CFP field
The CFP Playoff Predictor: the Inevitable has arrived. Don't say you weren't warned.
TikTok Chief Expects Major AI Science Breakthroughs In Three Years
TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew predicts artificial intelligence will drive massive scientific breakthroughs in medicine and physics within the next three years.
Predicting Week 8 Big Ten Football Game Times
When we think games will kickoff.
Minnesota Twins Catcher Predicted to Decline Potential Qualifying Offer
The Minnesota Twins may have to pay up to keep one of their most important players.
Immune Cell Map Uncovers How Individual Aging Trajectories Diverge
Researchers created an immune aging map showing that a balance between two immune cell types can predict future health. The findings link immune aging patterns to risks of chronic disease, mortality, and unhealthy aging.
Trump could face a new threat in January: A Democratic Senate
Republicans predict that Democrats will not confirm Supreme Court and Cabinet nominees if they retake the Senate in the midterm elections.
Lions vs Cardinals live updates: Score, highlights, predictions, analysis
As the Detroit Lions meet the Arizona Cardinals, follow live score updates, highlights, injury news, key plays, and instant analysis.
3 Stocks With Exposure to Prediction Markets as US Event Trading Grows
Prediction markets tied to sports, politics and real world events are suddenly trading like mainstream derivatives, and that surge is colliding with listed US exchange operators that already run futures and options markets. A new player like Kalshi floating an IPO story at a reported US$40b valuation hints at fresh competition and fresh demand. This piece walks through three stocks from the US regulated derivatives and exchange operators screener that appear positioned as potential winners...
Patriots vs. Raiders Odds: FanDuel, Kalshi, Polymarket and Prediction
The New England Patriots are favored to get back above .500 on Sunday, but the Week 5 betting board is sending a more cautious message about how comfortable that victory might be.New England enters at 2-2, while the Las Vegas Raiders are 3-1 and have covered the spread in all four games.The Patriots also head […] The post Patriots vs. Raiders Odds: FanDuel, Kalshi, Polymarket and Prediction appeared first on HEAVY.
Lions vs Cardinals Prediction, Pick, Odds for NFL Week 5
If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google. The Detroit Lions (2-2) and Arizona Cardinals (1-3) battle today in NFL
Tennessee-Alabama football game initial score prediction Week 7
Third Saturday in October: Tennessee-Alabama football game initial score prediction
Designers Predict These 5 Flooring Trends Will Take Over in 2027—and Bring a Fresh Look to Every Room
Before making a change to your flooring, find out what materials, colors, and styles will be trending in 2027 to give your home an updated appeal.
Eagles-Jaguars Week 5 prediction
How are you feeling about this matchup?
Predicted Newcastle United team v Coventry City with two changes
Looking at this Newcastle United team v Coventry City. Matthias Jaissle and his players looking to pick up where they left off before the international break.
NFL Week 5 expert picks, predictions: Moneyline, against the spread
NFL expert picks, predictions for Week 5 of the 2026 season.
Cagliari vs Juventus match preview and prediction
Juventus returns to action when they visit Cagliari in Serie A this evening, and it promises to be a tough game for them against one of the trickiest teams in the league. So far, the Bianconeri have d...
AS Roma XI vs Como – Predicted lineup and team news
AS Roma head to Como on Sunday aiming to reclaim outright first place in Serie A from Inter Milan.Under Gian Piero Gasperini, Roma have made a strong start to their league campaign. They sit at the to...
Manchester City XI vs Liverpool – Predicted lineup and team news
Manchester City visit Liverpool on Sunday afternoon as Premier League leaders with a perfect record, in their first match since being found guilty of breaching the league’s financial rules. They hav...
MLB playoff predictions for Dodgers-Brewers and Guardians-Rays LCS
MLB is down the final four.
3 bold predictions for Seahawks’ Week 5 matchup vs. 49ers
Jaxon Smith-Njigba headlines the many variables that may dictate the course of the game on Sunday.
Kalshi scrutinizing longshot bets that correctly predicted Trump’s next press secretary
The trades surrounding Zacharia’s selection as press secretary took place on so-called “knowable markets,” which experts say are more susceptible to insider trading.
College GameDay predicts Georgia-Alabama winner
ESPN's College GameDay predicted the winner of the SEC championship rematch between the Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide.
Olympiacos vs. Panathinaikos: Team News and Predicted Line-Ups
Olympiacos manager Imanol Alguacil faces a high-stakes test as the Red and Whites aim to bridge the five-point gap against their undefeated, league-leading eternal rivals Panathinaikos.
Dire Estimated Gears of War: E-Day Sales Raise Queries About Last-Minute PS5 Cancellation
Predictions peg full-price sales at just 230k
Scientists Discover a Hidden Hydrogen Pathway That Could Transform CO2 Into Valuable Fuel
Scientists have uncovered an unexpected pathway for hydrogen transfer during catalytic CO2 conversion. A computer model designed to predict how carbon dioxide becomes useful chemicals produced a surprising error: It identified formic acid as the main product instead of methanol. When scientists expanded the model to account for thousands of previously overlooked reactions, its predictions
ESPN 'College GameDay' predictions for Week 6
Week 6 of the 2026 college football season is here, and ESPN's "College GameDay" picked all the biggest games on Saturday.
Canal Street Chronicles: Week 5 Saints vs. Vikings Bold Predictions
Here are some bold predictions from the CSC staff for Week 5 of the Saints 2026 regular season
Genoa vs Fiorentina: Lineups and how to watch
The Viola remain as unpredictable as ever as they emerge from the break.
Smart Money Picks For A Stormy College Football Saturday
My college football predictions for today! Picks and analysis for Alabama vs. Georgia, OU vs. Texas, and Indiana vs. Nebraska. Who wins the biggest matchups?
Ari Emanuel: Elon Musk's AI prediction inspired live-events business
Hollywood powerbroker Ari Emanuel recently said on a podcast that Elon Musk once told him live events were essentially AI-proof.
Guardians-White Sox predictions. Who wins ALDS Game 5?
With the series on the line, here are our predictions for Guardians-White Sox ALDS Game 5.
Indiana vs Nebraska football live updates: Start time, TV, predictions for Week 6 game
Tolu Arokodare To Start: Ajax Predicted XI Against NEC Nijmegen
After a lengthy international break, Ajax return to action on Saturday night against NEC Nijmegen.
3 bold predictions for Indiana football at Nebraska
From Lee Beebe Jr.’s carries to Charlie Becker’s run blocking, here’s a few predictions for how Indiana’s day could go.
Tulsa vs Navy Prediction, Pick, NCAAF Odds for October 10
Read Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Navy Midshipmen predictions, picks and odds in our college football preview for Saturday, Oct. 10.
Week 6 College Football Predictions: Stuckey’s 4 NCAAF Noon Spots
Read for college football picks and predictions, including Stuckey's four NCAAF noon spots for October 10.
Steelers’ Aaron Rodgers Predicted to Benefit From Major Colts Weakness
Pittsburgh has struggled to protect Aaron Rodgers, but one ESPN analyst expects a dramatic change against the Colts. The post Steelers’ Aaron Rodgers Predicted to Benefit From Major Colts Weakness appeared first on HEAVY.
Ipswich Town vs Fulham – Predicted lineup and team news
Ipswich Town host Fulham at Portman Road on Saturday seeking a third win of the season against opponents yet to win one. Gary O’Neil’s side are 11th on six points, while Fulham are 19th on two. Ip...
Braves News: Free agent predictions, Arizona Fall League, and more
Atlanta Braves news and notes from Friday.
Tottenham XI vs Manchester United – Predicted lineup and team news
Tottenham Hotspur go to Old Trafford on Saturday evening still waiting for a first Premier League win, with Roberto De Zerbi’s side bottom on two points.Spurs have won five and lost one of their las...
Barcelona vs Getafe – Predicted lineup and team news
Barcelona will aim to extend their perfect start to the La Liga season to eight wins when they welcome Getafe to Camp Nou on Saturday.The Catalan side head into the game in outstanding form and sit at...
One Law of Citation? Scientists Find Shared Rules Behind Science, Law and Patents
A new Nature Communications study shows that scientific papers, U.S. case law, and patents share similar statistical citation dynamics, which a community-centric model with three core mechanisms can reproduce, explain delayed recognition, and better predict future impact.
Assistant Professor of Climate Data Science | The Journal of Blacks in Higher Education
Boston University invites applications for a faculty position at the rank of Assistant Professor in the Department of Earth Environment. This tenure-track position in Climate Data Science , beginning on July 1, 2027, is part of the ongoing cluster hire in Environmental Data Science and complements faculty searches within the Faculty of Computing and Data Science.rnrnWe particularly welcome candidates whose research focuses on the physical basis of climate, climate variability, and climate change, and who employ data science methodologies to deepen our understanding of how the climate system is changing and how these changes affect the global environment. Areas of interest include—but are not limited to—the changing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events; interactions between the atmosphere and terrestrial, oceanic, biospheric, and cryospheric systems; and improved understanding of Earth system predictability at seasonal, decadal, and longer time scales. We envision this position playing a central role in connecting and enhancing existing departmental strengths in climate-related research and teaching, including terrestrial and marine biogeosciences, land surface and coastal processes, paleoclimatology, energy and economic policy, and environmental sustainability. This faculty member will also contribute to university-wide interdisciplinary initiatives — including the Urban Biogeoscience and Environmental Health (URBAN) program, the Institute for Global Sustainability, and the Center for Climate and Health at the School of Public Health — and is expected to develop collaborative ties with the Faculty of Computing and Data Sciences, where shared interests in machine learning, large-scale data analytics, and Earth system modeling provide natural ground for joint advising, co-teaching, and grant development. This hire reflects our commitment to advancing interdisciplinary scholarship at the intersection of climate and data science. This position contributes to the University convergence themes of Global Sustainability as well as Artificial Intelligence, Data Science, Computing that are core pillars of BU's cross-disciplinary research priorities.rnrn Position Qualifications:rn Candidates should have a PhD or equivalent degree, demonstrated ability to obtain external funding to support their program of research and scholarship, and a commitment to excellence and innovation in teaching, education, and mentorship of students. The successful applicant will be expected to supervise graduate research in Ph.D. programs, teach at all levels in the Earth Environment curriculum, and maintain an externally funded research program. We seek applicants whose research complement strengths in the Department and around the University. For more information about the Department, see
Vikings-Saints Week 5 score predictions from the Bring Me The Sports staff
Will the Vikings stay undefeated or head into the bye week with their first loss of the season?
Political polls are everywhere, how much can they predict about November?
Midterm election polls are everywhere but how much can one data point tell about who will win in November?
Five Bold Predictions For Ohio State Vs. Maryland
We had a decent week last week with two correct bold predictions! Let's keep that momentum going as Ohio State takes on Maryland this week.
Duke vs. Georgia Tech: Staff predictions
The Duke Wire staff make their predictions for Duke's matchup against Georgia Tech on Saturday in Atlanta.
DOE, NIH, and Biohub Partner to Build Foundational Data for Predictive Biological AI Models
WASHINGTON and SAN FRANCISCO, Oct. 9, 2026 — The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Science, the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and Biohub signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to advance the frontier of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in biology, deepen our understanding of human health and disease, and accelerate breakthroughs in medicine and biotechnology. […]
Scientists have identified a 'protein signature' in blood that could predict healthy aging
Having a certain ratio of proteins produced by immune cells in your blood is linked to a higher risk of age-related diseases, scientists report.
Vikings Trade Proposal Predicts Price For Eagles’ Saquon Barkley
Howie Roseman is ready to deal if the right offer is on the table for somebody on the Philadelphia Eagles‘ roster. The General Manager proved that much when he decided to shockingly move the veteran offensive lineman Cam Jurgens to the Baltimore Ravens earlier this week. Could it soon be time for the Eagles to […] The post Vikings Trade Proposal Predicts Price For Eagles’ Saquon Barkley appeared first on HEAVY.
CBS Sports makes prediction for Falcons' SNF game vs. Ravens
CBS Sports' Pete Prisco makes his pick for Falcons-Ravens matchup in Week 5
Bets on midterm endorsements, rallies, dropouts and debates raise insider trading concerns
Super-specific midterm “knowable” markets have attracted more than $20 million in trading volume, according to an analysis from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective.
Analysis | The politics of prediction markets
Amid concerns that political insiders might use privileged knowledge to make money, there’s a new wave of efforts to regulate the platforms.
Anthropic's Claude Science creates the first complete ultraviolet map of the sky
Astrophysicist Brice Ménard of Johns Hopkins University used Anthropic's Claude Science to map the entire sky in ultraviolet light for the first time. AI agents downloaded data from multiple space missions, calibrated it, and filled in gaps using inpainting. Predictions averaged about ten percent deviation from actual measurements. Ménard sees the project as an example of research that simply wouldn't have gotten done without AI.
Lions Predicted to Land ‘Physical’ Eagles CB Before Trade Deadline
The Detroit Lions are named as a top landing spot for Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Kelee Ringo on the trade market. The post Lions Predicted to Land ‘Physical’ Eagles CB Before Trade Deadline appeared first on HEAVY.
50 years ago, my colleagues and I pursued basic research science that became revolutionary
“Basic studies led to clinical and translational advances that no one could have predicted,” Robert Gallo writes of his work with interleukin-2.
Bills Predicted to Bench Struggling WR for Unproven Rookie
The Buffalo Bills could bench veteran wide receiver Joshua Palmer in favor of rookie Skyler Bell, an analyst suggested. The post Bills Predicted to Bench Struggling WR for Unproven Rookie appeared first on HEAVY.
Editor Score Predictions: Nebraska vs. Indiana
Throughout the 2026 Husker football season, the sports senior staff will be sharing their score predictions for each game. This weeks predictions are in terms of the next game this Saturday against No. 7 Indiana.
Sunderland v Brighton: Our Team Predicts a Tactical Battle
Brighton arrive at the Stadium of Light in excellent form, but can Sunderland build on their recent performances and claim a crucial home win?
Browns vs. Jets Week 5 picks: A 50/50 split
The DBN staff predicts the Week 5 games, plus the national media make their predictions for Browns vs. Jets.
Maple Leafs Handed Clear Fight Prediction Before Golden Knights Game
The Toronto Maple Leafs face the Vegas Golden Knights this Thursday, October 8, and the conversation ahead of the game centers not only on possible lineups and outcomes, but also on potential fights.In the latest edition of The Leafs Morning Take, Nick Alberga and Jay Rosehill discussed who could be the first Leafs player to […] The post Maple Leafs Handed Clear Fight Prediction Before Golden Knights Game appeared first on HEAVY.
Tribal Nations Urge Supreme Court to Halt Prediction Market Sports Betting
A broad coalition of Tribal Nations and Tribal organizations is urging the U.S. Supreme Court to take up a case involving prediction market company Kalshi and determine whether its sports-event contracts constitute sports betting subject to federal, state and Tribal gaming laws. In an amicus brief filed in Flaherty v. KalshiEX, the Tribal coalition argues […]
Fundamental Brings Nexus to LA Galaxy and L.A. Live Through New Official Partnership with AEG
Fundamental's NEXUS model joins two of Southern California's most iconic sports and entertainment properties, bringing predictive technology to the business of sports and live entertainment LOS ANGELES, Oct. 8, 2026 -- Fundamental, an AI company whose Large Tabular Model (“LTM”), NEXUS is reimagining enterprise decision-making, and AEG, the world’s leading
Iowa Business Council predicts economically positive third quarter
A new survey from the Iowa Business Council reports a positive economic prediction for the next six months. The IBC’s Economic Outlook Survey (EOS) for the third quarter was 0.1 points higher than the report for the second quarter, now reaching 64.91 points. If the points are higher than 50, the survey is reported positive. […]
AI for breast cancer risk prediction goes DTC, regulatory cloud over Utah sandbox, and AI psychosis
In this edition of STAT's Health Tech: The story of a startup taking its algorithm for breast cancer risk prediction directly to patients, and more.
Scientists find signal that suggests AI is about to go rogue
Simple maths formula can predict when artificial intelligence is about to give dangerous responses, researchers say
Simple math formula predicts when AI chatbots will go rogue
Most of us now carry in our pockets devices capable of running small AI chatbots. These chatbots have little safety oversight to ensure they don't provide information and answers with the potential to ...
Week 5 NFL picks against the spread, predictions for every game: Packers need a win, but rival Bears are favored
ESPN predicts the winner of Georgia football at Alabama
ESPN predicts who will win the game between the No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs and the No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide
Why this startup is taking its AI to predict breast cancer risk directly to patients
A startup didn't want to wait for doctors and insurers to get behind its breast-cancer risk prediction AI. So it's going directly to patients.
Wake Forest vs NC State Prediction: The Wolfpack Are Back
NC State bounced back from a nightmarish first few weeks with two big wins, but Wake Forest is the biggest test yet. Here's the CFN game preview and prediction.
North East Ambulance Service predicts mental health spike
North East Ambulance Service says mental health care needs will rise over the next few years.
Predicting the Detroit Tigers Outfield for Next Season
The story of the Detroit Tigers outfield in 2026 was much akin to Jekyll and Hyde. While the team benefited from a stellar but abbreviated rookie season from Max Clark, as well as another All-Star campaign from Riley Greene, injuries and inconsistency plagued the outfield spots. Parker Meadows and Wenceel Perez missed large parts of …
Duke Disrespected as Undefeated College Football Team; Upset Predicted
Despite a dominant ground game and an unblemished record, the Blue Devils remain overlooked by critics. Now, an impending clash with Georgia Tech threatens their bid for national respect.
Who Won August and September: Original Films or Franchises?
(Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a newsletter on the entertainment industry and business strategy. I write a weekly Streaming Ratings Report and a bi-weekly strategy column, along with occasional deep dives into other topics, like today’s article. Please subscribe.) I just heard someone say that if you’re reading a pundit or data analyst, and they don’t tell you that they got anything wrong, they’re not a pundit but an “influencer”. I agree with that. You have to tell your audience when you get things wrong, or they won’t (or shouldn’t) trust you as much. Today, we’ve got another edition of “What I Got Right, What I Got Wrong”. In general, I’m patting myself on the back (and patting very hard) about a few things like IP at the box office, LIV golf, horror films, crowdfunding movies, superheroes, and old people going to the theaters. That said, I also made a couple of data mistakes on the streaming bubble popping and HBO’s datecdotes, so I’m not perfect. But first, I need your feedback... Subscribe Follow-Ups: What Should We Call Mid-Budget Movies Which Aren’t Cinematic Enough for Theaters But Are Too Expensive to Make Money on Streaming? After I asked for feedback on what we should call straight-to-streaming films that are too big to pencil out on streaming but not really big enough to resonate in theaters, I got some great suggestions from you all, including... “Moldilocks” from John Aboud “Little Big Indie” from Travis Frick1 “Midflicks” from Jonathan Funke. “Extra-Medium” from Jona Nwuke. (Read the explanation in the footnote.) Between these and Brandon Katz—who suggested “Bermuda Budget Triangle”, “The Platform Gap” and “The Distribution Deadzone”—we’ve got some excellent suggestions. And they’re better than my suggestion, the “Streaming Budget Dead Zone”, so let’s take a poll! The winning entry becomes the new term. Loading... RIGHT: LIV Golf is Fully Bankrupt…Is Anyone Else Next? A few years ago, I was always a bit perplexed at all the articles I’d read praising LIV Golf and their strategy to disrupt the PGA. LIV Golf, a brand new professional golf league, offered PGA stars ten times what they made on the PGA Tour to join their new league. And folks praised this strategy for its initial “success” in that a lot of big names did indeed leave the PGA. Yeah, of course the players came over. LIV Golf paid them so, so, so much more! But LIV Golf hadn’t discovered a way to increase potential revenue. So think about this in basic business terms… They paid much more in costs… …but had no real way to increase revenue. That’s not a strategy! That’s deficit financing. It won’t work unless you bankrupt the competition (and then turn around and pay those same golfers much, much less). It’s not a sustainable strategy and only lasts as long as the company/person/nation backing it decides they’re cool with losing money. For LIV Golf, that meant Middle East oil wealth, in particular Saudi Arabian money. Clearly, the current Iran War has hurt Middle East finances, so they need to trim their more exorbitant spending. And LIV Golf was part of that trimming. This should be a major warning for others. TGL’s parent company, TMRW Sports, just got a $1 billion valuation, despite TGL’s (the indoor golf league) horrible TV viewership of less than half a million viewers per match. Unrivaled, the women’s basketball league, just secured a $650 valuation, despite its horrible TV viewership and a new rival (Project B) entering the scene next year. To relate this to streaming, Hollywood should ask which streamers may have wealthy patrons funding their losses. (Let’s be clear: Google, Amazon and Apple.) Could those patrons lose their appetite? For Amazon, probably not. But Apple has a new boss, so maybe! WRONG: My Analysis of the Streaming Bubble Was Missing a Week I’m going to be congratulating myself a lot today, but I make mistakes too, like this data goof. When I last compiled the data on the decline in TV shows, I was missing one week at the end of June. If you look at the first image, you can see that one week was mislabelled as “July”. Mainly, this image got updated to show a 27% decline, not 29%: This change doesn’t really impact the overall analysis, but it is two percent better. By the way, through the third quarter, the decline increased and it’s now a 30% decrease since 2022. (I’ll write/visualize this in an upcoming article.) But I want you to trust me and my data. Especially these days, when many people are using LLMs that I know are inserting faulty data into their charts, I want to keep earning my audience’s faith. So that’s the accurate data. RIGHT: IP Remains Very, Very Popular In July, I wrote a giant (and I mean giant) article on Backrooms, Obsession, and the box office, going over what we know, what we don’t know about what works in theaters, looking at YouTubers, IP, the horror genre, comic book movies, and a whole lot more. The month of August really tested a lot of my theses and, being honest, mostly supported my arguments. Let’s start with IP. Looking at 8-Aug (the weekend after Spider-Man: Brand New Day came out) to 18-Sep (the weekend that Resident Evil came out, which I think provides a nice bookend to this time period), there were seven films based on pre-existing IP: Resident Evil (2026) ($126 million) Practical Magic 2 ($65 million) _Insidious: Out of the Furthe_r ($65 million) Coyote Vs. Acme ($59 million) Paw Patrol: The Dino Movie ($53 million) Tony ($15 million) Super Troopers 3 ($7 million) Compare those to the notable original films from the past month—I actually could have included more movies, but here are just thirteen, bringing us to an even twenty films—including.... The End of Oak Street ($54 million) Buddy ($26 million) Mutiny ($15 million) By Any Means ($15 million) The Dog Stars ($14 million) Runner ($14 million) One Night Only ($11 million) Hope ($8 million) Spa Weekend ($7 million) The Uprising ($6 million) Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma ($6 million) Onslaught ($3 million) Eli Roth’s Ice Cream Man ($2.8 million) Here’s that in chart form: Five of the top six films in this time period were all based on IP. I made a big chart of films that grossed over $200 million at the box office before Spider-Man: Brand New Day and The Odyssey hit theaters. Let’s update that chart! By the way, if you want to see how I categorized each film—so another bar chart—here it is: I know that many of my fellow critics/pundits/analysts dislike films based on IP and how Hollywood is making so many of them. And I’m sympathetic to this point of view. As I’ve written many, many times before, you need a balance between existing franchises, new IP, and original films. And Hollywood clearly needs to make more films like Resident Evil (a well-made film from a visionary director) and fewer Practical Magic 2’s (which didn’t get critical or customer buzz). But at some point, critics and pundits need to contend with what audiences are telling them: Movie-goers aren’t showing up to original films. Audiences are speaking with their dollars, telling you they want more IP and franchises. You can try to convince studio heads to make fewer IP-based films and franchises, but the data and numbers aren’t there. Instead, critics need to work harder to convince audiences to show up for original films. Aim your ire/concern at the average person, not studio heads.2 Because they’re just making the films that audiences are telling them to make. WRONG: Original Horror Films Didn’t Break Out I’ll be honest, even though I wrote an article casting some skepticism on the horror genre in July, if you asked me to make a prediction, I would have predicted that, in August, a new, original horror film would have blown up. No, seriously, I just assumed that Obsession and Backrooms presaged a change in audience behavior. But none of the buzzy new original horror films from August—Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma, Onslaught (not an action film in spite of the ads), The End of Oak Street, Eli Roth’s Ice Cream Man, or _Buddy—_broke out. To be clear, exactly one of those films (Buddy) had good “ROI”, but again—I try to be specific in my language—none were “popular” in any broad sense of the word. None of them will be “saving” movies theaters like Backrooms or _Obsession_helped save the summer. The new Insidious film and Resident Evil, both based on IP, were far and away the biggest horror films since July. (We’ll see if this changes in October/Halloween season.) RIGHT: Stay Skeptical about Crowdfunding... I’ve long been skeptical about crowd-investing platforms as one of Hollywood’s saviors, mainly because there’s so much hype/buzz. People need to stay more skeptical about more things, explaining both the potential upside but also the downsides. In particular, the media often hypes crowdfunding at the start and never checks in on the actual results after they’ve come in later. And August gave us our first update! _Ice Cream Man—_directed by Eli Roth—grossed $6 million off of a $5.5 million budget. This is a production of The Horror Section, which was one of the first “crowd investing” studios with 2,400 investors, which means that 2,400 investors probably lost money. They certainly aren’t getting as great of returns as if they had just invested their dollars in the stock market. Hopefully Stiletto (Tagline: “Someone’s Going to Make it Rain Blood!”) does better next month. WRONG: Another Data Goof Here’s another data error. When the first episode of House of the Dragon came out, HBO put out that it had 21.5 million viewers in the first three days, and I read that to mean in the US…but no, it was global. So my US-only datecdotes charts shouldn’t have included it. We never got US-only numbers for the first episode, but for the final episode, HBO put out that it had 11 million US viewers. (And that global dropped to 21 million viewers.) Here’s the updated chart (which I’ve since used in the Streaming Ratings Report): Still, this show is absolutely huge. RIGHT: Superhero Films Remain Very, Very Popular After Supergirl flopped, I read a few takes that “comic book movies are going the way of the Western”. Post-Spider-Man: Brand New Day, that take didn’t age well. To be fair, I have a very nuanced take on the superhero genre right now; it’s down right now, for a lot of reasons. But it’s not “dead”. Maybe _Spider-_Man is just a really popular character? I saw that take, and it’s a fair counter-argument. (But pundits arguing that superhero movies were dead should have mentioned this $1.5 billion counter-argument…) But is it just Spider-Man? The next Avengers film already has $50 million in pre-sales (and I was skeptical that that film would do well) and the Avengers: End Game re-release topped the box office two weekends ago (over three original films). And I wouldn’t bet against Batman or Superman. So maybe it’s just Spider-Man, Batman, Superman and the Avengers. Oh, and Deadpool, of course. And Black Panther. And Wolverine. And probably the X-Men. Plus a well-made Wonder Woman or the Hulk film could break out. But that’s it! It’s just those ten characters/teams. Oh, what’s that? Lanterns is also doing well on HBO? (See previous section…) To be fair, I’m actually pretty sympathetic to the argument that more popular characters—like Spider-Man and Batman—anchor more popular films. In fact, I made that exact argument three years ago when I first wrote about the “Marvel-cession”. In many ways, you can blame The Guardians of the Galaxy for fooling Marvel Studios (and the rest of us) into believing that any character could pop. It turns out, the list of iconic characters is probably smaller than most people think. But it’s probably too early to say that superhero films and comic book movies are dead unless “death” means a slight decline over a longtime. RIGHT: Who Killed Theaters? Old People I get frustrated whenever I see headlines or analysis about how young people are “returning” to theaters. As I’ve detailed(for years), young people have always powered the US box office, despite narratives about “kids these days” and their “phones”. Really, what’s changed post-2020/pandemic is that old people aren’t going to the movies nearly as much. This summer, I saw a movie (from an older director) in a theater near a retirement community, and multiple older people at the theater were talking about how this was their first time seeing a movie in years. I dislike personal anecdotes, so YouGov can fill in the data, best summarized by this headline: “Who killed movie theaters? Not the youths”. According to them, 64% of people aged 18-29 have seen a movie in the last year, but only 30% of 65-and-older. 20% of 18-29 have seen a movie in theaters in the last week and 42% in the last month. Here’s the polling data: Most concerning? Many Americans (17%) think theaters are a worse or much worse experience than watching films at home. Slight WRONG: Hadestown Opens Big A live theater capture of the Broadway musical, Hadestown, made $20 million at the US box office, which begs the question: was I wrong to be skeptical about musicals a few years ago? Yes and no. On the one hand, $20 million is a far cry from being “popular”, so yeah, the genre isn’t that popular overall and Hadestown is one of the more popular musicals from recent years (i.e. the “Taylor Swift Data Fallacy” in action). On the other, I doubt filming this cost all that much, and I don’t think that they spent much on marketing, so this is a good source of ancillary revenue. Smaller Updates WRONG: As I mentioned in a Streaming Ratings Report, I underestimated the budget for Enola Holmes 3. It probably cost more like $50 million, if not more. But... I’m not sure that it really matters? At sub-10 million hours, prices have to come down to make this work. WRONG: Netflix is giving Ink a 27-day in theaters! To quote the kids/YouTubers these days, let’s go! Now I might actually have a chance to see Danny Boyle’s latest in theaters. I’d complained about this in a “Coming Soon” section, but I was heartened to read that Netflix is giving multiple films longer theatrical windows this year. RIGHT: Netflix is sending 4-5 films per year to theaters. Netflix is slowly but surely sending more and more films to theaters, as I cautiously predicted earlier this year. For now, it’s just three big films and a number of awards contenders, but still, this is great news. And they’ll be releasing box office grosses! Just this week, Ted Sarandos confirmed that KPop Demon Hunters 2 will come to theaters (and my guess is it performs in the box office top ten at a minimum). WRONG: Angel has 3 million subscribers! How do I know this? Well, they told Deadline, who reported it. I marked this as “wrong”, since they’ve doubled their subscribers in one year but, you know, they don’t really have a hit film to speak of and they’re still losing money. WRONG: Furious was only renewed for one more season. I accidentally wrote “two more seasons” in my latest “Renewals, Cancellations, Un-Orders and Removals Update”. RIGHT: House of David is ending with its third season. In July, Prime Video renewed House of David for a third season, as I just wrote in my latest “Renewals and Cancellations” report. Well, now it’s ending after that third season. Why? As I’ve been writing, its viewership wasn’t great. I got feedback that this show didn’t cost very much, but it cost enough that its limited viewership didn’t save it. WRONG: Adults was a Hulu original! So I missed Adults when it first came out last year; I saw that it aired on FX and just assumed that it was a linear-first program. Turns out, it aired three episodes on FX, but binge-released the rest of its episodes the next day on Hulu. Huh. So I should have covered it last year! But I just wrote about it. 1 “When I was a kid in the 90s, if you wore a t-shirt to school that wasn’t too big and also wasn’t too small, but somehow didn’t quite fit, we’d say you were wearing an “extra-medium” shirt.” 2 As always, a huge exception is Disney, which barely makes anything original anymore.
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