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UK Politics Live Updates: Andy Burnham to Replace Starmer as Labour Party Leader
Mr. Burnham is expected to promise in a speech more public control of essential services, a shift of power toward local governments and a push for economic growth.
How Andy Burnham, ‘King of the North,’ Conquered U.K. Politics
A plain-spoken politician from a modest background in northwest England, Mr. Burnham is set to be named Labour leader — and prime minister apparent — on Friday.
Burnham to say his government will be ‘unashamedly Labour’ in first speech as party leader
‘Special conference’ to take place at noon where Burnham will be formally announced as Labour leader
Andy Burnham to become Labour leader and will promise to 'fix things politics has neglected'
The Makerfield MP is due to speak later when he is appointed at a special party conference in central London. He will then become prime minister on Monday.
German retailers warn of worsening business conditions as costs rise
German retailers are facing worsening business conditions as rising energy, labour and purchasing costs squeeze profits while sales remain weak, the German Retail Association (HDE) said on Tuesday, urging the government to act quickly.
Reform would have held just 15% of last year’s donations under proposed £100,00 cap, analysis shows
Exclusive: Party’s average registered donation was £137, 496, almost six times that of Labour or Conservatives
Nominations open in the contest to be U.K. leader, with Andy Burnham likely the only candidate
Burnham is highly likely to be announced as the new Labour leader July 17, and to become prime minister after a meeting with King Charles III on July 20.
Labour calls on Farage to ‘come clean’ over £5m gift and work with crime agency over money laundering concerns
Lib Dems tell Reform UK leader ‘the game is up’ as political rivals vow to boycott ‘stunt’ Clacton byelection
Nigel Farage's political rivals rule out standing in Clacton by-election
The Reform UK leader says he wants an "establishment versus the people by-election" but Labour calls it a "circus".
Labour asks Electoral Commission to investigate claims Farage broke electoral law by not disclosing gifts
Parliamentary authorities are already looking into a £5m donation to the Reform Uk leader from the crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne
Croatia criticised for ‘unambitious’ changes to 2022 science law
Croatia’s science ministry has been accused of a lack of ambition, and even incompetence, over proposed changes to the country’s 2022 science law. Critics say an opportunity has been missed to fix wider shortcomings in the research and universities system.“This law, like all the previous ones, will not significantly change the current state of science in Croatia,” Vlatko Silobrčić, a member of the Croatian Academy of Sciences, told Science Business. “A small shift here and there will not have a significant impact.”The 2022 law introduced multi-year block grant financing of research, based on results, and changes intended to boost employment and career progression for researchers and lecturers. But implementation of the law has been uneven. “It became apparent that certain of its provisions were subject to different interpretations by higher education institutions and scientific institutes,” the science ministry said in its proposal for change. “This caused legal uncertainty in the system, administrative difficulties in implementation and, in certain cases, unequal treatment of teachers, scientists and students.”Most of the proposed amendments deal with technicalities in hiring and promoting staff, such as extending the committee deadlines from 60 to 90 days, or allowing applicants to cite all of their achievements and not only those since their last appointment.Both the ministry and Croatian media highlighted changes that would raise the retirement age from 65 to 67 years and allow part-time students 15 year rather than 10 years to finish their studies.The change to retirement age has been criticised for reinforcing a weakness in the system. According to Matko Marušić, professor emeritus at the University of Split, this will “allow unproductive teachers to advance and work longer, while hindering and discouraging productive ones.”A longtime campaigner for excellence-based meritocracy, he sees little hope in the new legislation. “I am not optimistic that things will improve,” he told Science Business. “As recent changes to the law in Croatia show, the legal framework is becoming increasingly hypocritical and harmful.”For Marušić, who analyses Croatia's university system in a recently published book, the situation is “unfavourable and constantly deteriorating” due to the criteria used for academic advancement.“The key criterion for advancement should be scientific productivity,” he said. “In Croatia [. . .] scientific criteria are increasingly lowered, and ineffective and absurd criteria such as waiting times for promotion and age limits for remaining in a job are promoted.” He would also like to see better criteria for the quality of teaching at universities. “In practice, teaching is not monitored or evaluated,” he said, estimating that up to a third of teaching simply does not take place. “Under the guise of university autonomy and bad laws, universities and faculties are allowed to earn additional money by increasing enrolment quotas that have nothing to do with the needs of the labour market.” Lack of ambitionDora Kršul, a reporter at Telegram.hr who covers science policy in Croatia, finds the rationale for changes “bizarre.” “The ministry responsible for supervising the uniform application of the law is changing the law because it is being implemented unevenly,” she said. “This primarily speaks to the power relationship in the sphere of science and higher education in Croatia, that is, the question arises as to who actually manages this system.”Rather than raising quality, she continued, the changes appear to be designed to help vocational and applied universities who have not been complying with the law.The Independent Union of Research and Higher Education Employees of Croatia said that the changes were “unambitious” and represent a missed opportunity for more important changes. “We think some of the changes are even negative,” it said in its statement on June 25. One of these is introduction of an “assistant” job title that allows people to be hired only for the duration of a project. Related articles: Elections to top science bodies test Croatia’s gender equality in researchSlovakia revises R&D approach to increase focus on competitivenessLatvia pilots citizen engagement in research grant evaluationsThe union’s president, Tvrtko Smital, who was part of the 15-member working group tasked with drafting the changes, told the local media there was a “worrying lack of ambition” in the process, and “lack of competence” in terms of research experience and understanding the problems in the system.“There is no clear will to deal with the problems,” said Smital, an assistant professor of marine and environmental sciences at the Ruđer Bošković Institute in Zagreb. “It’s a combination of unambitiousness and incompetence,” he went on, expressing his “deep frustration” with the situation. “There is no strategy, no clear thinking, and money is not being spent optimally.”Croatia’s science ministry has not responded to requests for comment.
Efzimfotase alfa demonstrated improvements in bone health in treatment-naïve pediatric patients with hypophosphatasia achieving median difference of 1.67 vs placebo in RGI-C Score at week 25 in MULBERRY Phase III trial
Positive results from the MULBERRY Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa (ALXN1850), an investigational enzyme replacement therapy, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health in children (2 to
Andy Burnham distanced himself from UK Prime Minister Starmer, but may be stuck with his policies
Burnham, the former mayor of Greater Manchester who was sworn into Parliament hours after Starmer announced his resignation on Monday, will be constrained by the platform the center-left Labour Party was elected on that decisively ended 14 years of Conservative rule in 2024.
The war for Burnham’s ear: politicians and wonks fight for influence over a PM
There is high emotion, a deluge of policy papers and an ‘excruciating’ jostle for jobs as Labour’s probable next leader settles back into Westminster life
Days Ahead to Show If Burnham Plays Politics Better Than Starmer
Standing across from Keir Starmer in the Commons chamber this week, opposition leader Kemi Badenoch drew on a particularly violent metaphor for how the Labour Party had ditched him when she conjured up an image of “400 knives stuck in the prime minister’s back.”
What will the Trump administration’s relationship with Andy Burnham look like?
The popular Labour Party politician could butt heads with the U.S. president
Andy Burnham to get briefings on taking over as prime minister
Sir Keir Starmer is offering "access talks" with the civil service to Labour leadership candidates.
Andy Burnham prepares for a UK Labour leadership contest that may be a coronation
Andy Burnham is preparing for a Labour Party leadership contest that could make him Britain's prime minister within weeks.
How Brexit broke British politics
Brexit fractured the European Union, and it broke British politics. The country is about to get its seventh prime minister since the 2016 vote to leave the EU. Labour Prime
How Brexit broke British politics
Brexit fractured the European Union, and it broke British politics. The country is about to get its seventh prime minister since the 2016 vote to leave the EU. Labour Prime
What do we know about Andy Burnham's politics?
This is not the first time Burnham has tried to become Labour leader, so what else do we know?
Starmer says he'll resign as UK prime minister, roiling British politics yet again
Starmer says he will remain caretaker prime minister until his Labour Party chooses a new leader — with expectations growing that it will be former Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham.
Starmer says he'll resign as UK prime minister, roiling British politics yet again
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has announced his resignation, forced out by his party after losing voter support. He will remain as caretaker until Labour chooses a new leader. Former
Starmer is stepping down. What could happen next?
The Labour leader says he will remain prime minister until his successor is chosen.
BofA forecasts 75 bps of rate hikes in 2026 on labour market resilience, new Fed chair
BofA Global Research expects the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates by 75 basis points in 2026, it said on Monday, citing resilient economic data and rising expectations of a hawkish Fed under new Chair Kevin Warsh.
Political turmoil: UK will see its seventh prime minister in 10 years
After less than two years as PM, Keir Starmer announces his resignation amid mounting pressure from own Labour Party.
Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg: Starmer faces pressure as business secretary to be quizzed
Labour MPs and cabinet ministers have been urging the PM to set out a timetable for his resignation following Andy Burnham's big win in Makerfield.
PM under pressure from Labour MPs and ministers to set timetable for exit
The BBC has been told that the transport secretary is among those advising Starmer to set out a timetable.
Labour's Andy Burnham wins a special election, setting up a showdown with Starmer to lead Britain
Labour's Andy Burnham, the current mayor of Greater Manchester, has won a special election for a seat in Parliament that puts him in a position to challenge embattled Prime Minister Keir Starmer for leadership of the country.
U.K. Election Results Live Updates: Burnham Wins Makerfield By-Election, Clearing Path to Challenge Starmer
Andy Burnham, the Labour Party’s most popular politician, earned a decisive victory for a parliamentary seat in northern England. The win energizes his bid to become prime minister.
Burnham's emphatic win leaves Starmer and Labour MPs with big decision
The PM will see the stonking scale of Andy Burnham's victory - will it shift his outlook, his defiance, so frequently recently expressed?
Starmer warns against ‘looking backwards’ to Brexit after rivals back UK’s return to EU
Speaking at the G7 summit, prime minister says he stands by Labour’s manifesto pledge not to rejoin bloc
Roy Hattersley, Frontline Warrior of British Politics, Dies at 93
A Labour Party deputy who spent years in opposition, he criticized Conservatives and members of his own party, and was at the heart of major political moments.
Roy Hattersley: Labour politician who helped start the party's modernisation
Able Labour politician, often at odds with his party, who became a successful author and columnist.
Roy Hattersley, former Labour deputy leader, dies aged 93
Sir Keir Starmer said Lord Hattersley "was a giant of the Labour movement".
Labour accuses Badenoch of wanting to ‘turn clock back’ with plan to scrap public sector equality duty
Technology secretary says legal requirement that protects women, older people and others from workplace discrimination is ‘really important’
Exclusive: South Korea labour minister calls on tech firms to share excess AI profits with suppliers, staff
South Korea's labour minister called on the country's major tech firms to share the spoils of their massive windfall profits, warning that unprecedented chip-sector gains stemming from the AI boom risked widening a gap in inequality.
Zombie Blairites still have British politics in their grip – it’s time to break free
Tony Blair’s departure as PM should have prompted a fresh start for Labour. But Starmer’s sad, backward-looking government remains in his thrall, says Guardian columnist Aditya Chakrabortty
Labour figures who wrote competing ‘manifestos’ join forces to warn against tribalism
Mathew Lawrence and Mark McVitie, previously seen as favouring Burnham and Streeting respectively, say change of direction is needed
British politics is fractured and chaotic – but at last it’s brimming with ideas for the future
Finally, Labour is talking policy, thanks to the leadership contest and Tony Blair’s intervention – and the centre-right is making a much-needed fightback too, says Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee
Minister insists Labour will not apply national living wage to all over-18s before election
Torsten Bell says Labour manifesto ‘did not set out the timeline’ for changes to living wage after scale of youth unemployment crisis revealed in Milburn report
Tony Blair says Labour must abandon net zero, support Trump and move firmly to the right
In highly unusual intervention, ex-PM says his party’s ‘almost infinite capacity for self-delusion’ makes it likely to lose next election
Orchestras: Entertainment Or Stage Of A Crime Scene
Child trafficking lures vulnerable children with false promises and forces them into labour, sexual exploitation, and online abuse
High-Level Climate, Clean Air, and Health Roundtable
Reducing air pollution and climate pollutants represents one of the most immediate opportunities to protect human health while advancing climate goals and driving economic growth. Actions to reduce super pollutants such as methane and black carbon can rapidly slow warming while significantly reducing the global burden of disease linked to air pollution. These health benefits reduce pressures on health systems and improve labour productivity, supporting economic growth.
Bond breakout? Big effects of bad data. Immigration and thermostatic politics & dad-chat is coming for dad-books.
Thank you for opening your Chartbook email. Anna Airy, A Shell Forge at a National Projectile Factory, Hackney Marshes, London, 1918 Bond breakout - John Authers Across the developed markets, bond markets are staging a slow-motion car wreck. Looking at the drastic moves in the US, Japan, the UK and France, Barclays’ Ajay Rajadhyaksha commented: “Last week, long bonds broke. Not in one country. In all of them. Simultaneously. Four countries. Four different political systems. Four different central banks. But the same trade — “get me out of duration!”” Each country has its own contributing political problems, but the uniformity of the shift out of long-term bonds with high duration makes clear that something broader is afoot. For Rajadhyaksha, it is “simple and uncomfortable.” The developed world “has too much debt, too little fiscal discipline, and no political appetite for fixing either.” If there’s a trigger, it has been the Iran war and the resulting shock to oil supply. Source: Bloomberg G7 countries are now borrowing at rates that were enjoyed by EM in the early 2020s For contributing subscribers only. Subscribe Trade between China and Russia has grown in recent years For contributing subscribers only. Subscribe Big effects of bad data A decade ago nearly nine in ten Americans, when approached, agreed to fill out the Current Population Survey, which is administered to about 60,000 households each month and asks about, among other things, employment. Fewer than seven in ten do so now (see chart 1). For the Consumer Expenditure Survey, which tries to capture 3,700 households monthly, the response rate is down from 68% to 40%. … When the information becomes less reliable, investment decisions get more difficult to make. Some may be delayed, creating a potential drag on the economy. A new working paper by Nicholas Bloom of Stanford University, Erica Groshen, former head of the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) now at Cornell University, and Duncan Hobbs and Michael Strain of the American Enterprise Institute, a think-tank, hazards an estimate. Preserving trust in “the integrity and quality of official statistics”, the authors claim, generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the BLS, the agency with an annual budget of $700m that is responsible for many of these data. To arrive at their conclusion the quartet analysed an ignoble episode in the BLS’s recent history. On August 1st 2025 Donald Trump sacked Erika McEntarfer, appointed as the agency’s commissioner by his predecessor, Joe Biden. The president alleged, without evidence, that the BLS’s steep downward revision to recent jobs numbers had been “RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad”. In fact, it was the wanton dismissal that looked bad in the eyes of many observers. In the following seven days there was a 50% leap, relative to the week before, in the average value of the index of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), which tracks the number of articles mentioning such uncertainty that are published daily in American newspapers. This was a discernible jump even when compared to the chaos caused by Mr Trump’s trade war in April 2025 and his real one in Iran in the past two months (see chart 2). Based on Mr Bloom’s earlier study with other colleagues of the EPU’s impact on business investment, industrial production and employment, the authors estimate that the jump reduced American GDP by over $100bn (0.3%) and non-farm payrolls by 168,000 (0.1%). Source: The Economist Immigration and thermostatic politics (Sarah O’Connor in the FT) A strange thing happened a year and a half ago. No sooner had Americans elected Donald Trump as president on an explicitly anti-immigration platform than US public opinion began to swing much more favourably towards immigration. … to political scientists who study “thermostatic” politics, this development is no surprise at all. Public opinion often moves against the prevailing party, especially if they are perceived to have gone “too far” in one direction. The phenomenon was first explored in the 1990s with reference to fiscal policy, but in recent years it has been particularly evident in the realm of immigration policy. While these swings in opinion polls can make it seem as if people don’t know their own minds, they can be a useful democratic check on governments by sending bright flashing warning lights when policies stray too far from the public’s comfort zone. The problem comes when politicians misinterpret those signals. When people tell pollsters they want less immigration, or think it is bad for the country overall (or the converse), they are often expressing an opinion about how things appear to be going in that moment relative to their preferences, rather than a deep shift in their underlying views. According to Alexander Kustov, a political scientist, most Americans’ views are quite stable and moderate: they support immigration that is controlled and in the national interest, and oppose flows that are disorderly or under-enforced. In the US, he argues the Trump administration over-interpreted dissatisfaction with high immigration under Joe Biden, and implemented policies that went too far for many voters. “People don’t necessarily change their idea about their ideal immigration policy, but they can react to what the government is currently doing,” he told me. “A lot of people are not happy with what the Trump administration are doing — right now we’re not talking about border enforcement, we’re talking about people not just getting harassed, but killed.” But similarly, he added, pro-immigration advocates would be making a mistake to interpret the recent, more favourable swing towards immigration as a deep-seated ideological shift in attitudes. The recent history of UK immigration policy offers another cautionary tale. After the 2016 Brexit referendum, public concern about immigration fell. This was partly because net migration statistics declined, but also because people felt a sense of catharsis and control, says Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, a think-tank. By 2019, the public ranked immigration as only the ninth biggest issue of concern, according to Ipsos polling. But when the Conservative government liberalised visa routes for students and care workers between 2019 and 2022, that helped net migration to surge. And so, too, did public concern. Today’s Labour government has implemented another sharply restrictive turn in immigration policy. As Kustov and researcher Caitlyn Yates argue, thermostatic public opinion should be a useful check on politicians. Instead it seems to have helped to magnify the pendulum swing in the UK. The government over-interprets and overreacts to a change in public opinion, which reacts in turn, prompting a sudden swing the other way. Source: Financial Times HEY READERS, THANK YOU for opening the Chartbook email. I hope it brightens your day. I enjoy putting out the newsletter, but tbh, what keeps this flow going is the generosity of those readers who clicked the subscription button. If you are persuaded to click, please consider the annual subscription of $50. It is both better value for you and a much better deal for me, as it involves only one credit card charge. Why feed the payments companies if we don’t have to. Subscribe Anna Airy, Shop for Machining 15-Inch Shells: Singer Manufacturing Company, Clydebank, Glasgow, 1918 Racing for a vaccine … we have been here before! The deadly Ebola outbreak in two African countries driven by a virus species with no vaccine has triggered an urgent search for a potential jab, in a test of troubled global efforts to avert threats posed by emerging diseases. A World Health Organization advisory group is due to would meet on Tuesday to recommend candidate jabs to prioritise for clinical trials, the global health body said. It will assess data including an analysis by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (Cepi), which was set up after failures in the international response to a previous Ebola crisis. The latest Ebola outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda has infected hundreds of people and killed more than 80, health authorities say. Cepi’s reaction will be a crucial indicator of its progress towards its wider goal of producing vaccines for pandemic threats in just 100 days, despite steep cuts to international health funding. “If there was ever a time that we could show the world why Cepi is needed and show the world why the 100-day mission is needed, it’s now,” Nicole Lurie, the organisation’s executive director for preparedness and response, told the FT. “We’re happy to accept that responsibility, but obviously we need help from partners — particularly financial help in the long run.” DR Congo and Uganda would make the final decision on whether to press ahead with any vaccine candidates endorsed for clinical trials by the WHO experts, the global health body said. “Other ethical and community acceptability issues will be considered,” said the WHO, which declared the latest outbreak a public health emergency of international concern on Sunday. “This will be important to make sure that the trial, if it happens, will be adequately communicated to the population.” Lurie said Cepi had provided information from a survey of research teams and companies working on drugs that might be effective against the Bundibugyo virus behind the outbreak. The organisation hoped soon to announce partners in the quest for a jab, she added, although she declined to give a timescale for when one might be developed. Cepi’s Nicole Laurie said global health bodies were ‘getting some live-fire drills’ with hantavirus and the latest Ebola outbreak. The hunt for a vaccine should be helped by scientific advances including the use of artificial intelligence to find drugs active against viruses, Lurie said. Existing jabs against the Zaire Ebola virus responsible for many previous outbreaks might provide a basis for tackling the Bundibugyo species, she added. “We’ll see how far and how fast we can get,” Lurie said, adding that Cepi had done preliminary work recently on a possible jab for the rat-borne hantavirus responsible for a recent fatal outbreak on a cruise ship. “Both with hantavirus and now with Ebola, [we] are getting some live-fire drills.” Source: Michael Peel in the Financial Times Dad-chat is coming for dad-books. (By Pamela Paul and Jeffrey A. Trachtenberg in the WSJ) They were the go-to gifts for Father’s Day: a book about some little-known chapter of World War II, the sweeping narrative of a shipwreck, perhaps the latest presidential biography. These days, dad books are a dying breed. Nonfiction book sales have been in decline for the past four years, and are now the most challenged segment of the print book market. Publishers say certain types of books still fare well—including celebrity memoirs and religious titles. But in recent years, print sales in such categories as biography, current affairs and business and economics—what publishers refer to as “serious nonfiction” and which tend to resonate especially with men—have fallen considerably. Sales of nonfiction print titles were down nearly 8% through May 9 this year, and sales of books about politics and current affairs were down 19%, according to book tracker Circana BookScan. Publishing has long been subject to cyclical changes, with trends in format and genre taking over bookshelves in grand sweeps. (Remember the adult coloring-book craze? Or the stratospheric rise of romantasy?) But many in publishing believe the decline in serious nonfiction is more existential. “The trend couldn’t be clearer,” said Jonathan Karp, the former chief executive of Simon & Schuster and publisher of the new Simon Six imprint. “This is a sea change and people should wake up and realize we’re living in a new world.” One culprit for the shift: a new media diet for fans of more serious nonfiction. … Sixty-two percent of men and 54% of women consumed a podcast in the prior month, according to a recent survey by Edison Research at SSRS, up from 46% and 39%, respectively, in 2023. “When we have internal meetings to talk about this problem, it always comes around to podcasts,” said Jonathan Burnham, president and publisher of the Harper Group at HarperCollins Publishers. “The man who wants to read American history is now tuning into one of the many good podcasts about history that lends the quiet attention to a serious subject he’s looking for. It makes the idea of sitting down with a 700-page Ron Chernow book less appealing. You’ve scratched that itch.” Source: Wall Street Journal Remarkable report by Novara from the nationalist rally in London in mid May. Anna Airy, Leopard Moth and Plums, 1915 If you’ve scrolled this far, you know you want to click: Subscribe
Britain Politics
View at flats decorated with the St George's Cross flag in Ashton-in-Makerfield where Andy Burnham will stand as Labour's candidate for the by-election in Makerfield, England, Friday, May 22, 2026.(AP
What to know about the political chaos engulfing the UK's Labour Party and efforts to unseat Starmer
LONDON (AP) — British Prime Minister Keir Starmer tried to strengthen his grip on office Monday, saying he was getting on with the job after taking blame for the Labour Party’s disastrous election results that have put his leadership in jeopardy.
Are gilt markets acting as ‘the UK’s political police’?
Bond markets smell a crisis from a potential lurch to the left in the Labour Party
South Korea says it will pursue all options to avoid Samsung strike
South Korea will pursue all options, including emergency arbitration, to avoid a labour strike at the country's biggest employer Samsung Electronics and to minimise any damage if one does occur, its prime minister said on Sunday.
Labour leadership jostling puts Brexit back under political spotlight
The UK's relationship with the EU is shaping up as a key issue for a possible Labour leadership contest and the coming by-election in the Makerfield.
UK ex-health minister says will run to replace Prime Minister Keir Starmer
Pressure mounts on Starmer's government, as Labour rivals including recently resigned Wes Streeting circle.
How Rayner, Streeting and Burnham weakened PM in 12 hours of political drama
Three interventions by three senior Labour politicians made for an unforgettable day in British politics.
Chartbook 449: Voldemort on Threadneedle street. The Bank of England and the "haunted house" of English politics.
Imagine the scene: In some Harry Potter version of 21st-century London, a group of deathless UK Treasury officials gathered from across the last century huddle over warm pints and glasses of Chardonnay. Around the table there are officials from the 1920s, the 1930s, the 1970s, 2022 and today. Inevitably, in May 2026, the subject of conversation is the disintegration of the current Labour government. Despite its huge majority in parliament, it has been reduced to tatters by catastrophic local election result. These exposed the fact that rather than having a government with a clear popular majority, the UK is like most other modern societies divided into 5 segments each of which commands between 26 and 16 percent of the vote. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the leadership at Nos 10 and 11 Downing Street - where the Prime Minister and the Chancellor (Treasury Secretary) work - seem paralyzed. They are caught between mounting discontent over unfairness and the cost of living, and tough fiscal strictures that push them into making unpopular spending decisions. In the London pub, the Treasury officials from across the ages, can barely hide their satisfaction at the latest display of democratic politics caught in the vice-grip of financial logic. “Remember the mur d’argent and the banker’s ramp?” “Just like yesterday!” There are smirks around the table. Then the representative of 2026 pipes up: “One thing you have to say about the current lot (referring to the latest hapless Labour government), you don’t have to teach them about the bond market!” There is a murmur of ascent from the Treasury Mandarins. The trauma of the fiscal crisis of September-October 2022 sits deep. Back then, in the final stages of Tory decay, a ‘mini budget’ that challenged fiscal orthodoxy led to a brief but fierce panic in one of the oldest government bond markets in the world (aka gilt market). Now all you have to do is to mention the “bond market” to hush debate. [ Paul Mason@paulmasonnews In the name of public service, and as ex-economics editor of BBC Newsnight, I offer to do a zoom call, tonight, with any Labour MP who wants to understand why bond markets do not "fall into line" with governments. 1/ 3:57 PM · May 12, 2026 · 466K Views 224 Replies · 674 Reposts · 3.93K Likes ](https://x.com/paulmasonnews/status/2054229532404519082?s=20) “And the funny thing is”, the young man in the huddle continues, “they don’t even want to talk about … ”. There is a sudden hush. Significant looks are exchanged around the table. About? One of the senior figures puts down his glass with a decisive “clink”. He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named has entered their thoughts. Meanwhile, a few miles away in a grubby pub in Bloomsbury, two conspirators from the camp of Critical Macrofinance huddle over cans of low-alcohol IPA. They look at each other and blurt out loud: “The Bank!” “Everyone in the bloody Labour party is talking about the bond market. But why aren’t they even mentioning … the Bank of England!?” “Why is no one talking about Voldemort?” In Paul Mason’s blogpost, after much chest-thumping about basic fiscal logic, the basic point about the Bank of England is buried in the fine print at #3 in his list of suggestions as to what a radical Labour government might actually be able to do! [ Conflict & Democracy Down with the bond market! Down with gravity! It may seem unfair to focus on Labour MP Paula Barker for her off-the-cuff assertion that the bond market would have to “fall in line” with Andy Burnham, should he replace Keir Starmer as prime minister. But Burnham himself told the New Statesman that Labour had to “get beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond markets… Read more 2 days ago · 100 likes · 3 comments · Paul Mason ](https://htsf.substack.com/p/down-with-the-bond-market-down-with?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web) Back in Bloomsbury they shake their heads and ask: “Didn’t we learn anything from the Eurozone crisis?” Meanwhile, as if summoned to the conversation by some higher force, the “pink pages” announce: “The days of ultra-cheap government borrowing have come to an end” and Martin “Whizzard” Wolf publishes the graph of the season Look at the UK in 2026, perilously positioned on the upper edge of the pack. No wonder no one in London needs any lessons about the “bond market”. But, look again. Imagine how they feel in Rome. What is London’s nightmare in 2026? The nightmare is that you end up like Italy in the early 2010s during the Eurozone crisis. Once comfortably situated in the middle of the pack, watching with horror as your ten-year yields explode to 7 percent and “spreads” become a national nightmare. One of the largest economies in Europe, a founding member of the euro, stigmatized. But the message of the Italian experience is ambiguous. After all, the stigma didn’t last. In 2026, Italy borrows at rates lower not only than the UK but the US. The US, which, as everyone knows, enjoys the “exorbitant privilege” of being the issuer of reserve, safe asets. What kind of magic is this? How did Italy, in the space of fifteen years, go from being good, to bad and back again? Which brings us back to our dissident friends in their Bloombury boozer and their memories of the Eurozone crisis. Italy never was Britain - with its ongoing fiscal deficits. Without interest payments, on primary balance, from 2000 to 2020 Italy ran a tight fiscal ship. Even in 2008 it barely went into deficit and when it was being put on the rack in the early 20210s its primary surplus matched that of austere Germany. So, what happened? How did it end up stigmatized? Of course Italian politics didn’t help. Berlusconi was at the helm and he had legal issues. But amongst friends in the Bloomsbury pub, Berlusconi is a sideshow, the name we whisper to each other is “Trichet”. From 2004 to 2011 the ECB was headed by Jean-Claude Trichet, ex of the French Treasury, more German than the Germans. After 2009 as the news of the Greek fiscal disaster broke, the European bond markets wento into panic mode and Trichet began a brutal game of cat and mouse. Between 2009 and 2011, Trichet intervened in the bond market to help, only when he thought he had compliance with austerity. When he thought they were uncooperative, he withdrew. In the summer of 2011, he even made direct suggestions to his Italian counterparts in Rome, as to how Italy should be governed. It was this cat and mouse game that drove the bond markets crazy and exposed Italy to a violent squeeze. When Mario Draghi took over the ECB at the end of 2011 and declared “whatever it takes”, the pressure on Italy, gradually eased. It is that starring role that has made Draghi into the towering figure in European politics that he remains today. So now you see why voices in London hush when it comes to the Bank of England. “The bond market” isn’t an irresistible objective force like the weather or an avalanche. It can appear like that. But that depends on the way it is being handled, or not handled by the central bank. Which is why the silence about the Bank of England in London right now is so significant. If you think this all sounds a bit fishy, coming from a left-liberal Keynesian like myself, well, let me introduce you to Robin Brooks, who, to put it mildly, plays on a different quidditch team to me. Here, from the position of a fiscal hawk is Robin’s celebratory account of the Bank of England’s role since 2022; In October 2022, at the height of the bond market blow-up in the UK, something incredible happened. Governor Andrew Bailey told British pension funds the Bank of England would end its support program for the country’s fragile gilt market, drawing a line under how much help the central bank was willing to give to exposed pension funds and - implicitly - the government. By the end of that week, Kwasi Kwarteng - the finance minister - had resigned. Prime Minister Liz Truss would soon follow. This episode is so incredible because it contrasts with what happened in the Euro zone earlier that year. Bond markets in Spain and Italy were under pressure amid high inflation and rising interest rates. In the middle of this, Mario Draghi - Italy’s Prime Minister - resigned, compounding pressure on bond markets of high-debt countries on the Euro periphery. Unlike the Bank of England, the ECB caved. It bought Italian and Spanish government bonds in an effort to cap yields and introduced a new tool that signaled to markets it might do such caps more frequently going forward. Faced with pressure on bond markets, the ECB capitulated to political pressure from high-debt countries like Italy and Spain. The Bank of England stood its ground and toppled the Truss government. This kind of thing has long-lasting consequences. It means markets price a higher probability of yield caps in the Euro zone, which keeps Italian and Spanish yields artificially low, while markets feel free to push up UK yields without fear of central bank intervention. As I flagged in yesterday’s post, this means you really can’t compare UK yields to those of other high-debt countries. The UK looks worse, but only because its central bank isn’t interfering with markets. There’s more to this than just that 2022 episode. The Bank of England has also been much more aggressive in its quantitative tightening (QT) than other central banks. If one motivation for quantitative easing (QE) is to lower bond yields - especially longer-dated ones - then it stands to reason QT pushes yields up. The left chart above shows a four-quarter moving average of UK government debt issuance (black line) in percent of GDP and which sectors absorb this issuance, including the Bank of England (blue bars). The right chart above compares the Bank of England’s accumulation or run-off of government bonds (blue line) with that of other central banks, where this blue line is the same as the blue bars in the left chart. The Bank of England was quicker and more aggressive than other central banks in downsizing its bond holdings, so UK yields will have risen more than elsewhere also for this reason, not just because of Governor Andrew Bailey’s remarks in October 2022. Back in October 2025, after a conversation in New York with friends in British politics, my sense of dysphoria was such that I raised the issue of the Bank of England openly in the FT Since 2008, the UK has slid into a deep economic and political predicament. Growth has stagnated to a degree far worse even than in the 1970s. The Tory leadership’s wager on the Brexit referendum spectacularly backfired, leaving the UK isolated from Europe and at the mercy of its special relationship with the US, many of whose political class regard the UK as a basket case. After years of austerity, the Labour party lurched to the left and then back to the centre. The Tory party has been eclipsed by the populist nationalism of Reform. Any British government should be worrying first and foremost about how to restart growth. Instead, Keir Starmer is beset by shades of the gilt market panic triggered by the Liz Truss government in 2022. The debt level is higher than in recent years, but there is no cause for panic. UK debt is at far from critical levels and of long duration. Whether you want to “take back control” or launch progressive economic policy, a democracy dogged by fear of bond market vigilantes is unhealthy. In a country that is a monetary sovereign, this climate points to one thing: a disconnect between the government and the central bank. Since 1997, the independence of the Bank of England has become a sacred cow. But independence is what you make of it. And in the wake of the gilt market crisis of September 2022, relations between the Bank of England and the UK government need a reset. In normal times, there is no doubt that an inflation-targeting independent central bank can serve a country well. But since 2008, the UK and other advanced economies have not had the luxury of such simple problems. To their credit, central bankers around the world have not stood on orthodoxy. After 2008, the US Federal Reserve rescued the global banking system and, through quantitative easing, it stabilised the Treasury market in the face of huge deficits. In Europe, things were trickier. Both the Bank of England under Mervyn King and Jean-Claude Trichet’s European Central Bank played cat and mouse with national governments. This was a high stakes wager that between 2010 and 2012 escalated bond market tension and triggered a disastrous turn to austerity. Shaken by the impact of those shocks, their successors, Mark Carney and Mario Draghi adopted a more protective stance (assuming you were not the government of Greece). Recall that Draghi’s legendary slogan, “Whatever it takes”, was uttered to face down the City of London’s bond vigilantes. In 2015, Draghi launched QE — financial repression by another name. In 2016, Carney used the authority of the Bank of England to stabilise markets following the vote for Brexit, an exemplary demonstration of how central banks can underpin democratic choice, even when those choices are wrong headed. All these were independent central bankers steeped in the best practice of the 1990s, who recognised that historic crises demanded radical action. It was the price surge of 2021-2023 that poisoned the atmosphere. Though the shock came mainly from the supply side, central banks ended up in the dock. Nowhere more so than in the UK. The Bank of England reacted with aggressive normalisation. Faced with a cost of living crisis, the governor called for workers to accept real wage cuts. In early 2022, as gas prices were at record levels and Russia’s army was poised to invade Ukraine, the Bank adopted a stringent programme of quantitative tightening, elevating interest rates. When the Truss government got itself in trouble, the Bank took almost a week to come to the rescue. Rather than enacting a charade of normality, it is time to recognise that in 2025 the UK faces a period of historic transition. To meet this challenge, what is needed is a new concordat with the Bank. This should not ignore inflationary pressures or the long-run trajectory of debt, but should affirm the priority of reviving investment-led growth. One could follow Donald Trump in demanding interest rate cuts. The Bank could shadow the ECB in its commitment to capping Eurozone yields. But the top priority should be to lay the ghost of September 2022. The Bank’s slowing of QT last month was a concession. An immediate and complete end would send the right signal. Such a concordat will not by itself restore sanity to politics, solve the housing problem or rebuild the NHS. But it would help to lift the fear of bond market crisis, which is paralysing the effort by democratic politicians to answer the fundamental questions facing the nation. Now, that call for a new concordat between government and Bank of Englands seems more urgent than ever. The problem is that in October 2025, Starmer still had some authority. Today the government is in tatters. And when you are the “under the harrow” - to echo a phrase of Montagu Norman’s from the 1920s - it is the worst possible time to consider institutional change. To make general arguments at a time of crisis can only seem like special pleading rather than a general argument for long-term change. The same, unfortunately, is also true for the other basic institutional reform that Britain urgently needs i.e. the abolition of the out-dated first past the post electoral system and its replacement by a moderated form of proportional representation. And thirdly - whilst we are saying the quiet parts out loud - Britain needs to reopen the question of EU membership. What the local election results of 2026 show is that this remains a key issue. And what they also show is that there is a clear majority that would favor a return. Until these basic features of Britain’s political economy are addressed the country will carry on its politics as though in a haunted house, governed by governments that lack actual majorities, conjuring up false constraints whilst ignoring the real ones. This one is for DG and MI. I love writing the newsletter. If you enjoy it too and fancy buying me a coffee once a month, you know what to do. Click below! Subscribe
Britain Politics
FILE - Britain's then Heath Secretary Wes Streeting gestures as he speaks during the annual Labour Party conference in Liverpool, England, Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2025. (AP Photo/Jon Super, File)
UK bond market on edge amid political turmoil
Political instability, fears of drawn-out Labour leadership campaign, and possibility of Reform government all blamed for jump in UK borrowing costs
UK bond market on edge amid political turmoil
Political instability, fears of drawn-out Labour leadership campaign, and possibility of Reform government all blamed for jump in UK borrowing costs
Labour-supporting unions predict Starmer will not lead party into next election
Exclusive: Leaked draft statement says party ‘cannot continue on its current path’ under PM
What is happening with Keir Starmer’s leadership: at-a-glance
The prime minister is fighting to stay on in No 10 as heavy election losses trigger a Labour revolt.
The Latest: Starmer fights for political survival as calls for his resignation grow in UK
U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is fighting for his political survival after a disastrous set of results in local elections for his Labour Party last week. Dozens of Labour lawmakers are calling on...
The Latest: Starmer fights for political survival as calls for his resignation grow in UK
U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is fighting for his political survival after a disastrous set of results in local elections for his Labour Party last week. Dozens of Labour lawmakers are calling on Starmer to resign. A resignation announcement could possibly come after a Cabinet meeting on Tuesd...
The Latest: Starmer Fights for Political Survival as Calls for His Resignation Grow in UK
U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is fighting for his political survival after a disastrous set of results in local elections for his Labour Party last week. Dozens of Labour lawmakers are calling on Starmer to resign. A resignation announcement could possibly come after a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday,
Starmer tells cabinet he will not quit without leadership challenge
Prime minister says process for challenging a leader has not been triggered and Labour should get on with governing
Live: First UK minister resigns amid calls for PM Starmer’s resignation
The British premier is under pressure to quit after his Labour Party suffered election losses.
Farage trying to avoid scrutiny over £5m gift from crypto billionaire, Labour says
Reform’s deputy leader, Richard Tice, seeks to present issue as irrelevant in interview with Laura Kuenssberg
UK politics descends into chaos: Is there a lesson for Democrats?
Two years after the British Labour Party’s “landslide” win, a crushing defeat threatens its future
'We need to move quickly,' says Labour MP seeking to challenge PM
Catherine West says she is ready to challenge Keir Starmer but minister Bridget Phillipson backs the PM and warns against infighting.
Renters’ rights: ‘a regulatory avalanche’
Labour has presented reforms as a ‘moral crusade’ against rogue landlords, but risks shrinking the rental market
London elections 2026: Reaction and analysis after Labour losses
Labour support has dropped significantly in London with a surge in support for the Greens.
Pressure grows on Starmer as more Labour MPs call for resignation
Several frontbenchers told the Guardian they agreed the prime minister’s time in office should not go beyond the end of the year
London's new political landscape sets in after local elections
Labour has lost several long-held seats in London, transforming the political infrastructure.
The Chaotic New Era of British Politics
Keir Starmer’s unpopularity has led Labour to a humiliating defeat in local elections. Now, with five major parties competing for votes, the far right could be well positioned for a general-election victory.
Many Labour MPs are blaming the boss for elections body blow
Sir Keir Starmer is facing what looks like a coordinated attempt to get him to set a timetable for his departure.
Nigel Farage: Reform election gains show historic shift in British politics
Labour and the Conservatives suffer losses at the expense of Reform across England.
U.K. election results: Starmer’s Labour suffer huge losses as hard-right Reform gains
Early results Friday suggested sweeping losses that will heap pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer. He said the results were “very tough,” but signaled he had no plans to step aside.
Emerging picture shows Reform gains as Labour counts losses in heartland seats
So far, we have a chunk of the results around the parts of England that have had contests and no results yet from Scotland or Wales.
Election results so far at a glance - and what's still to come
Reform UK has made gains at the expense of Labour and the Conservatives in early council election results overnight.
Starmer Braces for Local Election Losses Amid New Era of UK Politics
Polls predict historic losses for Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour Party on Thursday as anti-immigrant Reform U.K. makes gains, and a new era of multiparty politics takes shape.
Who Will Speak for Workers in the Age of AI?
Business schools have a responsibility to prepare future managers for the decisions they will face about how AI gets deployed, and whose interests it serves.
‘Starmer’s referendum’: How local elections could expose a fractured UK
Thursday’s polls could deliver a sharp setback for Labour, with Reform UK and the Greens expected to gain, analysts say.
Trouble for Labour across a scrambled political map
Breadth of previous support for the party makes it vulnerable to losing everywhere, to everyone, this week
Labour MPs say ‘endless drama’ of leadership speculation must stop
Downing Street begins fightback against predictions of imminent challenge to Keir Starmer
Chris Mason: Elections this week a smorgasbord of competitiveness
The scale of these elections looks set to vividly expose the breadth of Labour's vulnerabilities, Chris Mason writes.
Lucy Powell says Labour has ‘no magic bullet’ as MPs brace for heavy losses in local elections
Deputy leader plays down leadership talk and says party must focus on long-term challenges rather than personnel
Britain enters the era of seven-party politics
Labour and the Conservatives combined account for barely a third of voters in polls — threatening the UK’s constitutional certainties
Business Lookahead: Eyeing oil, US jobs, and European earnings
STORY: From high oil prices and the conflict in the Middle East to U.S. jobs data and corporate earnings, here’s what you need to watch in business and finance in the week ahead.:: Crude and currencyOil prices briefly topped $120 a barrel this week to hit their highest level since 2022 as the war with Iran enters a third month.While the U.S. and Iran face pressure to end a conflict that has shut the Strait of Hormuz, the world watches anxiously as the biggest-ever disruption to energy supplies unfolds.For each week the Strait is closed, keeping oil elevated, the greater the economic risks via higher inflation or weak growth or, for some, both. Oil importer Japan just intervened to prop up a yen that has been weakened by the conflict.A new month is now underway and some traders will be mindful of that old adage, "Sell in May and go away.":: Jobs gyrationsAs the U.S. economy grapples with fallout from the Middle East war, Wall Street's radar turns to Friday's April monthly payrolls report.The U.S. economy likely created 73,000 new jobs, economists polled by Reuters forecast. In March, payrolls increased by 178,000, the most since December 2024, but that followed a sharp decline in February.The U.S. employment data comes amid signs of hawkishness at the Federal Reserve, as Donald Trump pick Kevin Warsh prepares to take over as chair with the U.S. president keen on rate cuts.:: Starmer’s statusThursday's local elections in Britain, usually a non-event for investors, could move markets in a big way, with opinion polls pointing to a heavy defeat for Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour Party.A heavy defeat could spark more widespread demands for his dismissal among his own lawmakers and stoke expectations of a successor more willing to run looser budgets. That would bring more bad news for British bonds.::European earningsIt's a big week for European earnings with Shell and Commerzbank among those reporting.On aggregate, profits are expected to grow 3.2% in Q1, according to LSEG I/B/E/S. Under the surface, it's a little bit more complicated. Growth is expected to be driven by just three sectors: financials, tech and energy. The latter is seen as the biggest beneficiary of the Iran war due to higher oil and gas prices.But if the war, and energy surge, persist, the overall outlook for Europe's earnings could turn.
Business–labour cooperation and long-term competitiveness in the age of AI
Modern economic competitiveness depends on how effectively industries and workers collaborate to adopt new technologies.
Nick Robinson: Labour's London squeeze exposes a fragmented British politics
London offers an insight into the dilemma Labour faces about which direction to take.
Mapped: the elections that could deliver ‘unprecedented’ losses for Labour
All signs point to a record low performance for Labour in May in what will be a moment of high jeopardy for Keir Starmer
‘Things could go backwards’: Kezia Dugdale on safety, LGBTQ+ rights and the future of Stonewall
Exclusive: Former Scottish Labour leader says she feels more scared as a lesbian today and calls for a kinder debate on transgender issues
Two more Reform local election candidates accused of offensive posts
Labour calls on Nigel Farage to sack candidates and says his party’s checks ‘clearly not fit for purpose’
The value of free health insurance: Evidence from Mexico’s Seguro Popular
Expanding free health insurance is central to universal health coverage, but its impact depends on how households value it. This column examines Mexico’s Seguro Popular and shows that households value the programme less than its fiscal cost. This helps explain why its effects on labour markets were modest and suggests that overall welfare gains may be smaller than often assumed, despite the programme’s large expansion in coverage.
Labour claims Reform UK won’t protect women, as poll suggests Farage’s party heading for ‘seismic’ wins in May
Poll projects major political earthquake across Britain with Labour losing Wales and England’s Red Wall
When I get abused just for dancing, it shows how far hatred of politicians has gone
Concern over MPs’ competence is one thing, but this is silencing opponents’ voices by character assassination, says Labour MP Stella Creasy
Will the Iran war reshape Keir Starmer’s political future?
Labour figures point to Gordon Brown’s response to financial crash as a template for embattled prime minister
Copying Farage and Polanski Is the Road to Political Oblivion
As John Major came to the lectern to deliver the annual Attlee Foundation Lecture in London recently, he acknowledged the incongruity of a Conservative ex-prime minister offering up a paean to the man whose legacy is honored at the event. Clement Attlee is considered Labour’s greatest occupant of 10 Downing Street.
Labour challenges Farage over cost of private jet trip to Maldives
Anna Turley questions Reform UK leader’s revised £25,000 figure for failed attempt to reach Chagos Islands on plane linked to billionaire donor
Morgan McSweeney’s phone: a murky business?
The stolen phone contained sensitive government information, and is becoming a political issue for Labour
Central banks' inflation mood puzzle: more judgment than science
The world's central bankers may be attempting the impossible: to get into the psyche of business executives, labour unions and ordinary households in real time to understand how they are navigating their finances through yet another energy shock.
Energy crisis: why ‘keep calm but cut down’ may be a better message for Labour
Government keen to avoid panic as oil price surges, but perhaps households need advice on reducing consumption