SCROLL NEWS / DISCOVERY
Search headlines
Find the stories shaping the conversation.
Results for " incumbent " 375 found 🔀 AI-powered Shuffle
24th Congressional District Candidate Changes Political Status
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY, CA (KEYT) - Bob Smith, the congressional candidate hoping to unseat incumbent congressman Salud Carbajal, is no longer aligned with
Incumbent NSHE regent challenged by UNR public health professor
Peter Reed, a long-time UNR professor, is challenging Nevada System of Higher Education regent Joseph Arrascada, who is seeking a second term, in the upcoming election for District 10. Arrascada, who was first elected in 2020, said he wants another term representing Northern Nevada constituents in order to provide continuity and build on the work […]
Political insider turns anti-incumbent table on 8-year Dem in key Senate race: 'Hasn't delivered'
John E. Sununu flips the anti-incumbent script on Chris Pappas, calling him ineffective on highway funding as the NH Senate race hits toss up.
House Primary Results 2026: A Closer Look at the Numbers Behind Incumbent Defeats
The biggest headlines from this year’s primary season seemed to trumpet races in which centrist incumbents from both major parties were ousted in favor of nominees with more extreme views. President Donald Trump publicly targeted Republican lawmakers he thinks have not been sufficiently loyal to him ...
Primary Season Is Over. What Comes Next?
The 2026 primary season came to a close Tuesday night with incumbents and expected challengers both winning easily in Delaware. In the evening’s main race, Sen. Chris Coons, a Democrat seeking a third full term in Washington, easily bested three challengers, including one who had legally changed his ...
Taylor aims to rein in private equity in healthcare, restore Medicaid funding and ACA subsidies
Taylor, who was first elected to her current role as Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney in 2011 and who is vying to unseat longtime Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Rob Wittman, would also explore ways to more tightly regulate private equity in healthcare, if she’s elected.
Pa. election 2026: Your complete guide to the candidates for governor
Incumbent Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro will face Republican Stacy Garrity on the Nov. 3 ballot. Learn more about them with this guide.
He ousted an incumbent. Now, Nate Sheets looks toward the general election.
Businessman Nate Sheets defeated incumbent Republican Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller in the primary. He now takes on organizer and rancher Clayton Tucker. Lone Star Politics speaks with him about his “Texas first” trade policy, bringing higher quality food to Texas schools, and his response to accusations from his opponent that he’s farmer.
Brandon Johnson launches re-election bid — this time as the unpopular incumbent
He's seeking a second term, this time with a record to tout — and defend — among crowded field of well-funded challengers.
José Javier Rodríguez, Annette Taddeo to spend weekend courting South Florida labor, faith base
Both Democrats are running against incumbents appointed by Gov. DeSantis who hold hefty fundraising edges.
Postpartum politics: What it means to run for government as a new mum
Victorian Greens candidates Nina Crawley and Lini Fernando reflect on their experiences running a political campaign just months after giving birth. From the challenges and compromises to the support networks that wrapped around them, and why showing up vulnerably in public space matters. Subscribe In 2024, when my second child was four months old, I decided to run for local government. Fast forward two years, I am again four months postpartum, with my third child, and this time running in the state election. But this time has hit differently. Going through pregnancy, birth and postpartum while being a political candidate has had a more profound and personal impact than I ever expected. I reached out to my fellow Greens candidate for the state election, Lini Fernando, who gave birth 20 days before me, and her experience closely mirrored mine. Postpartum has its own unique challenges that we’ve not seen reflected in stories about women running for office. When people discuss the “juggle”, they’re usually talking about the practical mechanics of looking after small children - childcare arrangements, pumping schedules and logistics. As mums of multiple children, we were both aware of the logistical changes and difficulties that accompany giving birth and the months after. We assumed that combining this with running for election would be hard, but that we could organise our way out of any problems. What neither of us anticipated was the intense vulnerability that comes with putting yourself into the spotlight of a state election campaign at a time when you are physically exhausted and navigating things like breastfeeding and feeling like a stranger in your own body. There have been challenges that neither of us anticipated. Firstly, needing to buy new clothes because the supportive leggings that are a staple of the postpartum wardrobe weren’t going to cut it for community events. Lini held her first fundraiser - a trivia night - just three weeks postpartum. A business-casual wardrobe, several sizes bigger than pre-baby, was needed, and fast. As women, how we look is closely scrutinised, and the internalised fatphobia is loud. We are conditioned from our earliest days to believe that our appearance is tied to our worth, and taught how we are allowed to show up in public. Women who dare to put themselves into the spotlight also receive more abuse than their male counterparts, including criticism of their appearance. To stand in front of members of your community and try to convince them that you’re the best person to represent them in parliament is a challenge in and of itself. To do it with leaking breasts, a pelvic floor that could betray you at the first sign of a sneeze, a body that still feels unfamiliar, and with half your hair falling out (hello postpartum hair loss!) is another thing altogether. It requires courage, allowing yourself the grace to be vulnerable in public, and the belief that showing up, however imperfectly, matters. And the vulnerability isn’t just physical; it also includes factors like having to ask a campaign team to accommodate the realities of having a baby. Asking for help is hard, and it’s a skill that both new parents and hopeful political candidates need to become comfortable with. Parents understand the disappointment that comes when a call for help or connection is rebuffed, like a friend cancelling a much-needed coffee. That rejection is amplified for political candidates calling dozens of people each week. Many people don’t realise running for Parliament, when you aren’t the incumbent, is a volunteer role supported largely by other volunteers who have to squeeze volunteering in around their paid work. Calls need to be made and meetings held after work hours - usually during “witching hour” (5-8 pm), that special time of night when babies cry for no reason. I found that I was struggling to make these commitments, or having to tap out and ask for them to be rearranged. When I spoke to Lini, we realised that she had had a similar experience, this push-pull of being the candidate and wanting to show our faces at meetings and help recruit new volunteers at ‘calling parties’, but also being the only people who could settle our newborns. Sometimes we could merge the two worlds; Lini and I realised that we had both attended 7:30pm meetings online, sitting in a dark room, struggling though breastfeeding and settling our babies. Although we’re both committed to breaking the stigma around breastfeeding, it can be hard to keep your composure while trying to feed a young baby as they try to latch, spew and fuss. Ultimately, Lini and I agreed that showing up vulnerably in public space matters. Leaders should possess empathy and understanding for those who feel raw and in transition; from the dad who just got evicted to the teen who acquired a disability - anyone who feels they aren’t the version of themselves they expected right now. The patriarchy tries to tell us otherwise, but women shouldn’t have to wait until they’re ‘recovered’, no longer vulnerable, before they feel entitled to participate in public life. In fact, we could all benefit from our leaders being a little more vulnerable. *This piece was cowritten, but has been presented in the first person for the sake of style. About the authors Nina Crawley is former teacher and community organiser who now works in human rights and inequality advocacy for a non-profit. She’s a mother of three keen to get back to running as soon as her pelvic floor allows! She’s contesting the seat of Ivanhoe for the Greens in this year’s state election. Lini Fernando is a lawyer working in diverse areas of law including anti corruption and public law. She’s a mother of two and a gardening and good policy enthusiast. She is currently contesting the seat of Croydon for the Greens in this year’s state election. Thanks for reading Cheek Media Co. ! This post is public so feel free to share it. Share
Conservative business group’s multi-PAC strategy flops as General Assembly incumbents prevail
Every Rhode Island lawmaker seeking reelection won their primary Wednesday, despite an effort by The League of RI Businesses to oust progressive incumbents with more moderate Democratic challengers.
Drew Petzing reveals one worry with Lions offense vs Saints
Detroit Lions could rotate incumbent starter Christian Mahogany and veteran Ben Bartch at LG in their season opener Sunday against New Orleans Saints.
The big surprises from the R.I. primary
State Representative David Morales became the first candidate in Providence history to beat an incumbent mayor in a primary, and Helena Buonanno Foulkes swept every city and town in the state.
Democratic socialist wins primary for mayor of Providence, Rhode Island
David Morales, a state lawmaker backed by the Democratic Socialists of America, defeated incumbent Mayor Brett P. Smiley.
Businesswoman Helena Foulkes defeats Gov. Daniel McKee in Rhode Island Democratic governor primary
NBC News projects that Foulkes won the Democratic nomination in the blue state, making McKee the first incumbent governor to fall in a primary in eight years.
Helena Foulkes will defeat Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee, CNN projects, marking a rare incumbent primary loss
Former CVS executive Helena Foulkes will win the Democratic nomination for governor of Rhode Island, CNN’s Decision Desk projects, defeating incumbent Gov. Dan McKee as she capitalized on voter frustration over the partial closure of a key bridge and the ensuing traffic chaos.
Dem incumbent becomes first sitting governor to lose primary since 2018
Costco board member, former CVS exec avenges narrow 2022 loss to Gov. Dan McKee in high-stakes Rhode Island rematch, causing sitting governor to become first to lose party primary in several years. OR Rhode Island Democrat Gov. Dan McKee fends off challenger Helena Foulkes for second time, avoiding first primary loss by sitting governor since 2018.
Gov. McKee faces tough challenge from Foulkes in Rhode Island Democratic primary
Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee is hoping to avoid becoming the first incumbent governor in any state to lose a primary since 2018 as he tries to fend off an intraparty challenge from former CVS executive Helena Foulkes in Wednesday's state primary.
Incumbent GOP governor rolls to primary victory after keeping Trump at a distance
Kelly Ayotte cruised past Republican primary challengers, setting up a high-stakes New Hampshire governor's race against Democrat Cinde Warmington.
New Hampshire voters pick midterm nominees as Sen. Shaheen's exit sparks scramble for key seats
New Hampshire primary voters are choosing candidates for Congress, governor and the 424-seat state Legislature on Tuesday, and incumbents aren’t the only familiar names on the ballot.
Sophia Klein withdraws from North Platte City Council race, citing hostile political environment
Citing an increasingly hostile local political climate, Ward 1 candidate Sophia Klein has withdrawn her challenge against longtime incumbent Jim Nisley.
London mayoral contenders limber up for a race that is Sadiq Khan’s to lose
Tories and Reform hope to unseat the incumbent by tempting some Labour voters to shift to the right
Jake Johnson hopes hustle, political conditions add up to upset over Republican Brad Finstad
Rochester math teacher Jake Johnson is waging a stiff challenge to Republican incumbent Rep. Brad Finstad. Johnson has gained national Democratic attention but still has an uphill climb to reach a seat in Congress.
Why didn’t the age argument work for Seth Moulton?
Incumbents swept across Massachusetts. On GBH’s Morning Edition, politics reporter Adam Reilly breaks down a decisive victory for Sen. Ed Markey.
Takeaways from Massachusetts, where generational challenges fizzled
With the primary season winding down, the anti-incumbent wave spared older Democrats including Sen. Edward Markey, 80, who held off younger challengers.
Neal, longtime incumbent, beats Whalen, an educator, political newcomer
He held off challenger Jeromie Whalen with less than 10% of the vote.
Neal, longtime incumbent, beats Whalen, an educator, political newcomer
U.S. Rep. Richard Neal has retained his seat as the congressman for the 1st Hampden District. He beat out school teacher Jeromie Whalen.
Democratic Rep. Stephen Lynch defeats a younger challenger in Massachusetts primary
Lynch won against Patrick Roath, NBC News projects, who is more than three decades younger and came at the incumbent from the left.
In Massachusetts U.S. Senate race, challenger Moulton says Markey, 80, is too old for another term. Young Democrats are divided
The 2026 midterms have brought a number of generational challenges like the one Moulton is waging against Markey, with younger Democrats taking on — and in some cases unseating — longtime incumbents.
Reflections on Weiser-Lopez, Crank-Killian debates
Thursday night, The Gazette and KOAA TV hosted two important candidate debates. The first featured incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Jeff Crank, who is just completing his first term representing El Paso County in Congress, and Jessica Killian, a Democrat who has served in the Army and has years of experience working in Washington, D.C. The second […]
Jon Ossoff, usually a head down senator, has found a formula to excite Democrats
Ossoff should be among the most vulnerable Senate incumbents this year. Instead, the Georgia Democrat has opened a steady lead in polls and is increasingly seen as a potential 2028 contender.
Most ‘Disruptive’ Business Ideas Aren’t Disruptive. This 1-Minute Test Reveals Which Ones Are
Test a growth move by asking what an incumbent must sacrifice to match it. The answer shows whether your advantage can survive once competitors respond.
Republican with same name as incumbent Dan Sullivan advances from Alaska U.S. Senate primary
A candidate with the same name as Alaska’s incumbent U.S. senator has advanced to the general election in what will be one of the most closely watched races in the country this fall.
In Headache for Republicans, Second Dan Sullivan Advances in Alaska Senate Race
A long-shot candidate with the same name as the incumbent Republican senator will be on the ballot in November. That could be a problem for the G.O.P.
Autonomy and Innovation
Incentives favor offense when it comes to agentic cybersecurity; it’s the same dynamic that will limit incumbents and fuel startups in the long run.
This democratic socialist has upset the party establishment. Here’s her strategy for Congress
As the Democratic Party’s socialist summer comes to a close, Darializa Avila Chevalier has become one of the most polarizing — and potentially most influential — faces of an insurgency that has bested several congressional incumbents and left the party at a crossroads.
As Democrats Struggle in Some Western States, Independents See an Opening
From South Dakota to Alaska, independents are challenging incumbent Republicans and eschewing a Democratic label that Western voters find toxic.
WHO RUNS MARYLAND POLITICS NOW?
ByThe Maryland Wire The Machine Didn’t Die — It Broke Apart Mike Miller is gone. Steny Hoyer is retiring. The two men who helped define Maryland political power for generations are disappearing from the map. Nobody has inherited all of what they controlled. Instead, Maryland power has fractured among Wes Moore, legislative leaders, county organizations, federal figures and a new generation fighting to connect the pieces. By The Maryland Wire For decades, there were two names in Maryland politics that required almost no explanation. Mike Miller. Steny Hoyer. You didn’t necessarily have to agree with them. You didn’t even have to like them. But everyone understood something: Not social-media power. Not cable-news power. Not the temporary power that comes from one big election. They possessed political infrastructure. Relationships. Institutional memory. Donors. Staff. Allies. County leaders. Lobbyists. Legislators. Operatives. And the ability to connect people who needed something with people capable of delivering it. Today one is gone. The other is preparing to leave Congress after more than four decades. And Maryland faces a question it hasn’t had to answer in generations: The answer may be: Nobody. At least not the way Miller once did. Maryland’s old machine wasn’t inherited by one person. It fragmented. And now several ambitious political networks are competing to assemble the pieces. Miller presided over the Maryland Senate for 33 years, becoming one of the longest-serving legislative leaders in American history. He stepped down as Senate president in 2019 and died in January 2021. (Behavioral and Social Sciences) But Miller’s real power wasn’t the title printed on his door. It was the accumulation of relationships behind it. Miller came from Maryland’s old Democratic organization and developed into an extraordinarily adaptable political operator, retaining authority even as the Senate around him became younger and more liberal. (The Washington Post) He understood something fundamental: politics is information. Who wants what? Who owes whom? Which senator needs help? Which county executive wants something in the budget? Which committee chairman can move a bill? Which lobbyist represents which client? Which candidate should receive support today because that candidate could be a senator ten years from now? Miller knew the answers because he’d spent decades collecting them. Miller’s influence wasn’t confined to elected officials. Former Miller aides became prominent Annapolis lobbyists. Maryland Matters noted figures such as Joseph Bryce and Timothy Perry among the high-profile lobbyists who had once served as top Miller aides. (Maryland Matters) That was one of Miller’s greatest political achievements. He didn’t merely accumulate power around himself. He produced alumni. Staffers became lobbyists. Legislators became committee chairs. Allies became power brokers. And decades of relationships reinforced one another. By the end, Mike Miller wasn’t simply a person. He was an ecosystem. Hoyer’s network was different. Miller’s power was rooted in Annapolis. Hoyer connected Maryland to Washington. He served in the Maryland Senate before winning election to Congress in 1981 and ultimately became one of the longest-serving members of the U.S. House and a longtime No. 2 in House Democratic leadership. In January 2026, Hoyer announced that he would retire rather than seek another term. (The Washington Post) His influence stretched through: Prince George’s County, Southern Maryland, Congress, federal agencies, donors, campaign organizations, and generations of Democratic candidates. And Hoyer had something machine builders value enormously: a succession network. That became obvious almost immediately. When Hoyer announced his retirement, Maryland’s 5th Congressional District exploded with candidates. Twenty-four Democrats entered the race. But when the votes were counted, the winner was Adrian Boafo, Hoyer’s former campaign manager. Boafo wasn’t running without establishment help. He was endorsed by Hoyer. He was endorsed by Governor Wes Moore. And he ultimately won the Democratic nomination. (AP News) In his victory speech, Boafo described the result as voters deciding it was time to “pass the torch to a new generation of leaders.” (AP News) That phrase captures the transition perfectly. Hoyer’s seat isn’t simply being vacated. Parts of his network are being transferred. But they aren’t being transferred to another Steny Hoyer. They’re being absorbed into a newer political constellation. And standing prominently inside that constellation is Wes Moore. If someone forces you to name the single person sitting nearest the center of Maryland Democratic politics today, the answer is Governor Wes Moore. The 2026 Democratic gubernatorial primary underscored the scale of his position. Moore won renomination overwhelmingly, receiving roughly 88% of the Democratic primary vote. (WBAL-TV) But raw votes tell only part of the story. Look at the party infrastructure. The Maryland Democratic Party says Steuart Pittman ran for state party chairman in 2025 “at the suggestion of Governor Wes Moore.” Pittman took office that July. (The Maryland Democratic Party) That’s important. Governors traditionally influence their state parties. But party leadership plus fundraising, endorsements, executive appointments and national relationships creates the beginning of something bigger: a political network that could survive the governor’s term. Moore also played a role in the Hoyer succession by backing Boafo. That’s how political organizations reproduce themselves. You support tomorrow’s politician today. And that’s the distinction that matters. Moore has enormous statewide visibility. Miller had decades of accumulated legislative control. Moore can endorse candidates. Miller could influence the environment in which legislators lived every day. Committee assignments. Leadership positions. Legislative priorities. Relationships that had been accumulating since before many current lawmakers entered politics. Moore may have a larger national profile than Miller ever possessed. But he doesn’t possess Miller’s half-century of Annapolis memory. Nobody does. Which is why the modern Maryland political structure looks less like a pyramid and more like several power centers connected by overlapping relationships. One of those centers belongs to Senate President Bill Ferguson. Ferguson controls an institution no governor can simply command. The Senate. Maryland’s official 2026 legislative records identify Ferguson as Senate President. (Maryland General Assembly) That means influence over: committee structure, Senate leadership, legislative priorities, confirmations, and negotiations with the House and governor. But Ferguson is not Mike Miller 2.0. Miller’s extraordinary longevity allowed him to become almost inseparable from the institution. Ferguson possesses the office. Miller possessed the office plus decades of political mythology and accumulated relationships. Those aren’t the same thing. The House now has its own new center of gravity. Official 2026 legislative records identify Joseline Peña-Melnyk as Speaker of the House of Delegates, alongside Ferguson as Senate President. (Maryland General Assembly) That makes the current Maryland governing triangle: Executive power. Senate power. House power. None fully controls the others. And that fact alone demonstrates how different modern Maryland is from the Miller era. The governor proposes. The legislature disposes. Committee leaders negotiate. County interests intervene. And political coalitions shift issue by issue. That’s not one machine. That’s a networked power structure. Then there’s U.S. Senator Angela Alsobrooks. Her significance isn’t that she is the new Hoyer. She isn’t. Hoyer spent decades constructing his network. Alsobrooks brings something different: Prince George’s County roots, a statewide electoral organization, a United States Senate platform, and relationships with national Democratic leaders. That makes her a critical bridge between Maryland and Washington at precisely the moment Hoyer leaves. Hoyer’s retirement therefore doesn’t necessarily weaken Prince George’s influence. It changes who carries it. Prince George’s itself is undergoing a dramatic generational transition. Official 2026 results show Aisha Braveboy winning the Democratic County Executive primary with 87,944 votes and 73.31% of the vote. (Maryland State Board of Elections) That’s political infrastructure. Prince George’s is one of Maryland’s central Democratic vote engines. A county executive with that level of primary support gains: appointments, budget influence, organizational relationships, donor access, and a platform for cultivating the next generation of political leadership. Braveboy therefore isn’t merely another person on the Maryland power map. She controls a place from which a political organization can be built. Boafo is particularly interesting because he sits almost perfectly at the intersection between the old and new worlds. He worked for Hoyer. Hoyer endorsed him. Moore endorsed him. Then Boafo beat an enormous Democratic field for Hoyer’s seat. (AP News) That doesn’t make him powerful on Hoyer’s scale. He’s just beginning. But it illustrates how power actually transfers: not through a ceremonial handoff, but through endorsements, donors, staff, relationships, and voter confidence. Boafo may become Hoyer’s congressional successor. He will not automatically inherit Hoyer’s 40-plus years of political capital. That part has to be rebuilt. This is the part that often gets overlooked. When a machine breaks apart, power doesn’t only move upward. Some people’s relationships become less valuable. Former Miller aides still know Annapolis. Former Miller allies still possess institutional memory. Veteran lobbyists don’t forget how legislation works. But something fundamental disappeared when Miller did: the common center. The person capable of connecting all of them instantly was gone. That changes the value of a political network. Imagine knowing everybody in Annapolis. Useful. Now imagine the person who introduced many of those people, appointed committee chairs, influenced Senate priorities and understood decades of relationships is simultaneously Senate President. Much more useful. Remove that person and the individual relationships remain. But the system becomes decentralized. First: Bill Ferguson. The Senate’s institutional relationships now run through his leadership rather than Miller’s. Second: the House leadership. With the Miller-Busch generation gone, today’s House leaders are building their own committee chairs, alliances and relationships. Third: Wes Moore. Moore became governor after Miller was gone. That distinction matters. Earlier governors had to operate with Miller sitting across State Circle. Moore entered office during a generational reset. Instead of negotiating with the old machine, he has the opportunity to help build the next network. Fourth: Angela Alsobrooks and the emerging Prince George’s generation. Hoyer is leaving. Miller is gone. The county’s political leadership now belongs to another generation. Fifth: politicians who were outside the old Miller organization. When someone dominates an institution for 33 years, inevitably some politicians develop within that organization and others outside it. Miller’s departure created room for people who may never have risen as quickly under the old structure. That’s the biggest point. If Mike Miller’s power had simply transferred to Bill Ferguson, Maryland would still have a machine. If Hoyer’s influence simply transferred to Boafo, Maryland would still have a machine. If every county leader simply took orders from Moore, Maryland would have a machine. None of those things happened. Instead: Moore controls the statewide executive platform. Ferguson controls the Senate. Peña-Melnyk controls the House. Alsobrooks has statewide and federal reach. Braveboy has Prince George’s executive power. Pittman leads the state Democratic Party after Moore encouraged him to seek the role. (The Maryland Democratic Party) Boafo represents the beginning of the post-Hoyer congressional generation. And Baltimore, Montgomery County, organized labor, donors and other county organizations maintain their own centers of influence. That’s not one machine. If you want to understand where Maryland power is moving, don’t simply watch office titles. Watch endorsements. Who does Moore support? Who does Alsobrooks support? Who gets Ferguson’s allies? Who gets House leadership? Who gets Hoyer’s blessing? Who gets labor? Who gets major donors? And most importantly: That is where the new Maryland network becomes visible. The Boafo race was a textbook example. Hoyer’s successor didn’t emerge randomly from 24 candidates. He had ties to the outgoing incumbent and support from the governor. The old network and the emerging one overlapped. And voters chose him. (AP News) Moore may ultimately become the most important person in determining whether Maryland develops another durable statewide political organization. But the test isn’t whether Moore himself remains popular. The test is what happens to the people he supports. Which delegates become senators? Which senators become committee chairs? Which county officials become executives? Which staffers become candidates? Which appointees become statewide leaders? Who gets his donor network? Who gets his political advisers? Who eventually gets his endorsement when Maryland faces a post-Moore gubernatorial succession fight? That’s how we’ll know whether Moore was merely a successful governor— or the founder of another generation of Maryland power. There’s another category worth watching: politicians who came from Miller’s Maryland but remain active in the new one. Dereck Davis is one. Anthony Brown is another. Veteran legislators and former officials throughout the state still possess old relationships that newer politicians don’t. These people can function as bridges. That’s important because political systems rarely reset completely. The new machine usually grows partly from pieces of the old one. Donors don’t disappear. Lobbyists don’t disappear. Operatives don’t disappear. Institutional memory doesn’t disappear. They find new centers of gravity. If you want one name: His overwhelming 2026 Democratic renomination, executive authority, national profile and influence within the Maryland Democratic Party make that difficult to dispute. (WBAL-TV) But saying Moore “runs Maryland” the way Miller once ran the Senate would oversimplify the reality. Maryland power today looks more like this: WES MOORE Statewide organization.Appointments.Fundraising.Executive government.National Democratic relationships. BILL FERGUSON The Senate.Committees.Confirmations.Legislative leverage. JOSELINE PEÑA-MELNYK The House.Committee leadership.Budget and legislative leverage. ANGELA ALSOBROOKS Statewide electoral organization.Federal platform.Prince George’s relationships.National Democratic connections. AISHA BRAVEBOY Prince George’s executive organization.County government.A major Democratic vote base. THE POST-HOYER GENERATION Boafo and the emerging political class that will have to rebuild Hoyer’s Washington-Maryland network rather than simply inherit it. It did something more interesting. Mike Miller’s influence was too personal, too old and too deeply rooted in his own relationships to be inherited whole. Hoyer’s network is too extensive and too intertwined with decades of congressional politics to fit neatly inside one successor. So the pieces are moving. Toward Moore. Toward Ferguson. Toward Peña-Melnyk. Toward Alsobrooks. Toward Braveboy. Toward younger candidates and new county organizations. And toward veteran political survivors who understand both eras. That’s the next chapter of Maryland politics. The person who eventually connects: Annapolis, Prince George’s, Montgomery County, Baltimore, labor, business, donors, the Maryland Democratic Party, and the congressional delegation will possess something Maryland hasn’t truly seen since Miller’s heyday. Not merely another elected official. And maybe that’s why searching for “the next Mike Miller” is the wrong exercise. There may never be another one. The more important question is: Miller spent half a century becoming that person. Hoyer spent decades becoming another version of it. Maryland’s current political leaders are still competing for the privilege. And until somebody actually connects all those pieces, the most accurate answer to the question “Who runs Maryland?” may be the most fascinating one of all: No one does. Not anymore. But there are plenty of people trying. Sources University of Maryland and Maryland Matters — Miller’s 33-year Senate presidency and political legacy. (Behavioral and Social Sciences) Washington Post historical reporting — Miller’s rise from Maryland machine politics and ability to retain power as the Senate evolved. (The Washington Post) Maryland Matters — former top Miller aides who moved into Annapolis lobbying and the changing Senate power structure. (Maryland Matters) Washington Post and Reuters — Hoyer’s January 2026 retirement announcement after more than four decades in Congress and his long Democratic leadership career. (The Washington Post) Associated Press — Adrian Boafo’s 2026 victory in the Democratic primary to succeed Hoyer, including Hoyer and Moore’s support and Boafo’s “pass the torch” remarks. (AP News) Maryland Democratic Party — Steuart Pittman’s official biography stating that he sought the state chairmanship at Moore’s suggestion. (The Maryland Democratic Party) Maryland General Assembly — official 2026 records identifying Bill Ferguson as Senate President and Joseline Peña-Melnyk as Speaker. (Maryland General Assembly) Maryland State Board of Elections — official 2026 Prince George’s County results showing Aisha Braveboy’s dominant County Executive primary victory. (Maryland State Board of Elections) 2026 election reporting — Moore’s overwhelming Democratic gubernatorial primary victory. (WBAL-TV)
AOC endorses Sen Ed Markey as incumbent faces Dem US Senate primary challenge from Rep Seth Moulton
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorses incumbent Sen. Ed Markey as he faces off against Rep. Seth Moulton in the Massachusetts Democratic U.S. Senate primary.
Live updates: GOP incumbent Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola to square off in Alaska Senate race
Get live updates and the latest news on the Trump administration and 2026 elections as Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola are set to face off in Alaska’s Senate race and Byron Donalds and David Jolly win their primaries in the Florida governor’s race.
Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican Dan Sullivan lead in Alaska primary for US Senate
Incumbent Sullivan is running for third term while Peltola is fighting to flip seat and aid Democrats retake control of Congress
Mary Peltola and Dan Sullivan Advance in Key Alaska Senate Contest
The Democratic former congresswoman and the incumbent Republican senator will face off in November. Whether a potential spoiler candidate with the same name as the senator qualifies alongside them has not been determined.
Angie Nixon wins Florida Democratic primary for U.S. Senate
She will take on incumbent Ashley Moody, who won the Republican primary.
Poll: Gov. Sanders holds lead over two opponents
Incumbent Republican Gov. Sarah Sanders is leading her two general election opponents despite the headwinds of President Trump’s political woes in Arkansas. A new statewide survey of 1,217 likely voters...
Poll: Gov. Sanders holds lead over two opponents
Incumbent Republican Gov. Sarah Sanders is leading her two general election opponents despite the headwinds of President Trump’s political woes in Arkansas. A new statewide survey of 1,217 likely voters...
Poll: Trump gets low marks for job performance
New polling from Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College shows President Donald Trump is viewed unfavorably by state voters and his unpopularity is a drag on several GOP incumbents....
Poll: Trump gets low marks for job performance
New polling from Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College shows President Donald Trump is viewed unfavorably by state voters and his unpopularity is a drag on several GOP incumbents....
Searching for Answers From the Man Accused of Sabotaging Alaska’s Senate Race
Dan Sullivan, a retired schoolteacher from tiny Petersburg, Alaska, shares a name with the incumbent senator he hopes to defeat. Is he a spoiler trying to divide the Republican vote? We traveled to Alaska to find out.
2 Dan Sullivans face off in Alaska's US Senate primary, which also features a former congresswoman
A U.S. Senate contest featuring a former congresswoman and a challenger with the same name as the incumbent headlines Alaska’s primary
2 Dan Sullivans face off in Alaska's US Senate primary, which also features a former congresswoman
A U.S. Senate contest featuring a former congresswoman and a challenger with the same name as the incumbent headlines Alaska's primary.
Nixon, Vindman seek Democratic nomination for Florida U.S. Senate seat
The winner is expected to take on incumbent Ashley Moody, who is the favorite in the Republican primary.
Eric Jones Calls for a New Politics to Fight Corruption, Corporate Power and Rising Costs
Democratic challenger Eric Jones has initiated a campaign for Congress against longtime incumbent Representative Mike Thompson, with his platform emphasizing political reform, the mitigation of corporate influence, and the amelioration of economic inequality.
Cory Mills went from hero to top Democratic target. Can he survive a GOP Primary challenge from Ryan Elijah?
The 2-term incumbent suffered an election cycle of scandals, and now faces 3 GOP challengers.
In redrawn FL-23, incumbent Rep. Lois Frankel battles political outsider Victoria Doyle
The 78-year-old from West Palm Beach — who has been in elected office since the mid-1980s and in Congress since 2013 — is facing a progressive challenger, Victoria Doyle, 60, a retired intellectual property attorney and local activist.
How Crowley’s win could impact the campaign for WI-03
Incumbent Republican Congressman Derrick Van Orden expected Francesca Hong to win the Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor.
Live Results: Connecticut midterm primaries
Two veteran Democratic incumbents in Connecticut face strong challenges in a state primary on Tuesday.
AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Connecticut’s state primary
Two veteran Democratic incumbents in Connecticut face strong challenges in a state primary on Tuesday.
AbCellera women’s health data top ‘most aggressive upside scenario,’ putting Astellas and Bayer on notice
AbCellera has reported phase 2 results “beyond even the most aggressive upside scenario” that its CEO dared to consider, boosting the biotech’s chances of challenging Astellas and Bayer for a women’s health market. The phase 2 clinical trial compared ABCL635, an antibody targeting NK3R, to placebo in patients with hot flashes caused by menopause. Investigators enrolled 92 postmenopausal women experiencing a mean of about 10 moderate or severe hot flashes per day. By Week 4, the number of moderate or severe hot flashes had fallen by a mean of 8.8 on ABCL635 and by 3.5 on placebo. That statistically significant, placebo-adjusted reduction of 5.3 hit the trial’s primary endpoint. The level of efficacy also cleared the bar set by existing drugs. While cross-trial comparisons can be misleading, AbCellera CEO Carl Hansen, Ph.D., had seen enough to start hyping the program. “We now view ABCL635 as a potential best-in-class non-hormonal therapy with strong differentiation against approved NK3R competitors across all important dimensions, including efficacy, safety, dosing and convenience,” Hansen said on a Monday morning conference call with investors to discuss the data. “We believe ABCL635 is now a highly de-risked program.” Last week, Hansen used AbCellera’s earnings call to set expectations for readout, with the CEO defining success as a clean safety profile and efficacy comparable to the two approved small molecules. The data vaulted over that bar. Astellas linked (PDF) one of the small molecules, Veozah, to placebo-adjusted reductions in hot flash frequency of 2.1 and 2.6 at Week 4 of its two phase 3 trials. Bayer reported (PDF) placebo-adjusted reductions of 3.04 and 3.29 at Week 4 of pivotal studies for its small molecule, Lynkuet. At 5.3, the placebo-adjusted reduction in AbCellera’s trial comfortably cleared the standard set by the incumbents. Veozah and Lynkuet came to market based on evidence of their ability to reduce the frequency and severity of hot flashes. AbCellera’s phase 2 study covered both endpoints, with the Canadian biotech reporting a mean reduction in severity of 1.4 points at Week 4 on ABCL635, compared to 0.3 points for placebo. Again, the placebo-adjusted result compares favorably to data on Veozah and Lynkuet. Analysts shared Hansen’s enthusiasm for the data. The phase 2 results “firmly validate ABCL635 as a potentially best-in-class treatment,” BMO Capital Markets analysts said in a note to investors Monday. ABCL635’s apparent efficacy edge “is likely attributable to the higher dosing/target engagement the asset is able to reach vs. the oral agents due to its wider therapeutic index,” the analysts added. The analysts, who model $2.3 billion in unadjusted peak sales for ABCL635, flagged the safety profile as another positive of the phase 2 readout. While Veozah carries a boxed warning for liver damage, nobody on ABCL635 in the phase 2 trial had elevated liver enzymes or bilirubin values. If replicated in phase 3, the lack of a liver signal could allow approval without the monitoring requirements imposed on Veozah. Investors appeared equally enthused, sending AbCellera's stock up 32% to $9.21 in premarket trading Monday from a Friday closing price of $6.93. Next, AbCellera will collect the Week 12 data and talk to its advisors about further development. The results open up “a wide variety of possibilities of how we might take this forward into phase 3 studies to truly maximize the value of the asset and make sure that ABCL635 is able to demonstrate its differentiation potential,” Sarah Noonberg, M.D., Ph.D., AbCellera’s chief medical officer, told investors.
House turnover jumps as incumbents lose primaries at the highest rate in decades
Nine House members have lost primaries in 2026, and another 62 members are not seeking re-election, shaking up the chamber.
Trump-backed incumbent loses primary after super PAC bankrolled by Dems meddled in race
A super PAC bankrolled by a California billionaire and frequent Democratic donor spent $2 million to unseat Andy Ogles over renewable energy policy.
Progressive climate organizer William Lawrence wins Michigan Democratic House primary
Activist who rallied around a datacenter moratorium will face incumbent Republican Tom Barrett in November
Shri Thanedar Is Ousted by a Democratic Socialist in a Michigan House Primary
Representative Shri Thanedar is among a wave of Democratic incumbents in Congress whom primary voters have sent packing in a surge of anti-incumbent fervor this cycle.
When does advanced science create entrepreneurs — and does it matter?
A new NSF Engine in Cleveland revives an old question — whether a startup or an incumbent should turn research into products — and brings up a better one: whether that distinction serves the people it’s meant to.
3 officials rescind endorsements in Mass. Senate race
Here’s a political rarity: Three local elected officials are taking back their endorsement of an incumbent in the stretch run before the election.
What to watch in Michigan’s Democratic Senate showdown and other key races in Tuesday’s primaries
Michigan Democrats on Tuesday will settle a Senate primary that has emerged as the most significant test of the party’s direction this year — one that will gauge whether the progressive insurgency that has toppled establishment figures and incumbents on deep blue turf all spring and summer extends into one of the nation’s biggest political battlegrounds.
Jorge Elorza to endorse David Morales for Providence mayor
Incumbent Mayor Brett Smiley served as one of Elorza’s top aids during his first term. This will be the second time Elorza has endorsed a candidate over his former ally.
‘The Democratic Party is asleep at the wheel’: Democratic socialists are strategizing for their biggest moment yet
DSA has taken a strategic approach to grow its power within the Democratic Party, picking off two House incumbents already this year and potentially a third on Tuesday in Michigan. As the group’s summit in Chicago made clear, its members see this as only the beginning of a fight against both Republicans and Democrats alike.
Corporate law firms funnel nearly $1M to Democratic incumbents
Last year’s bitter legislative fight over Senate Bill 21 – to shield companies from certain lawsuits – has spilled into the summer’s primary season.
Troy Jackson launches his first general election ad in Maine Senate race, criticizing Susan Collins
The seven-figure ad campaign highlights the Democrat’s background as a labor organizer and attacks incumbent Maine GOP Sen. Susan Collins. It’s slated to begin running next week.
GOP governor survives challenge from Bitcoin evangelist in gubernatorial runoff
South Dakota's first gubernatorial primary runoff pitted incumbent Larry Rhoden against outsider Toby Doeden after neither cleared the 35% threshold to win outright.
Early voting begins in Wisconsin primary featuring chaotic Democratic governor's race
Early in-person voting is beginning in swing state Wisconsin’s chaotic Democratic primary for governor, with a democratic socialist trying to overcome the incumbent governor’s pick.
This South Dakota race shows how wealthy candidates are changing American politics
The incumbent governor faces an unexpected challenge from a self-funded outsider.
Political action committees swarm incumbents with donations
The two incumbent Tennessee lawmakers from Knox County who are facing primary challengers have PACs on their side.
There are political races in Arkansas this year
They aren’t getting a ton of attention, but there are races for Congress and the U.S. Senate in Arkansas this year. Democrats are challenging Republican incumbents in all four Congressional...
New York Democrats face a generational reckoning
Left-leaning young voters are dominating Democratic primaries, forcing longtime incumbents to shift.
Democrats in Maine gather to replace Graham Platner in the race against Susan Collins
Democrats are hoping to move past Platner's scandal-plagued campaign as they look to unseat Republican incumbent Susan Collins. The apparent front-runner is former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson.
Redistricting pushes incumbents toward the exits: From the Politics Desk
Plus, Trump’s next big nuclear bet in the Middle East.
Live results: Trump-backed Rep. Andy Biggs will win Arizona gubernatorial primary, CNN projects
Rep. Andy Biggs will win the Republican nomination for governor in Arizona, CNN’s Decision Desk projects, setting up a November clash with Democratic incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs in the battleground state.
Shaky political "science": breakdown of the peer review process
[This article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in December 2025, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting (RCV). Many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first four articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report; the second one analyzed a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report; a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research; and a fourth article that analyzed seven studies sponsored by New America’s political reform program that deployed flawed methodology based on “simulated” elections instead of real-world elections, which when combined with some basic misunderstandings of RCV, produced odd and misleading results]. In this fifth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we examine two flawed studies on the impact of RCV on voter turnout authored by San Francisco State University professor Jason McDaniel. McDaniel’s research in these two papers stands out for its puzzling methodology, inadequate and cherry-picked data, and faulty analyses that not only misunderstands ranked choice voting but reflects a basic misunderstanding of politics in general. The first of the McDaniel studies actually passed through a peer review process and then was subsequently published by the Journal of Urban Affairs, despite its obvious errors. It is perplexing that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the errors and send it back to McDaniel for a rewrite or outright rejection. This calls into question the credibility of the peer review process itself. The peer review process is supposed to represent the intellectual pinnacle of the profession – a way for academics to certify the quality of each other’s work, and to act as a check against sloppy research. In the case of the McDaniel study, the peer review process failed. Yet his flawed study has been cited dozens of times by other political scientists in their own flawed works — an unvirtuous circle of academic research. Here is the first Jason McDaniel study that we analyzed: “Writing the Rules to Rank the Candidates: Examining the Impact of Instant-Runoff Voting on Racial Group Turnout in San Francisco Mayoral Elections,” by Jason McDaniel, 2016, Journal of Urban Affairs. This study covered San Francisco’s use of ranked choice voting (RCV) in mayoral elections, purporting to show that RCV reduces voter turnout overall, increases voter errors, and has a negative impact on “marginal populations,” i.e. racial minorities, mainly as the result of the alleged complexity of RCV asking voters to rank candidates and having to be familiar with multiple candidates and related dynamics. McDaniel reached these conclusions by examining five San Francisco mayoral elections taking place in odd years (i.e. where there are no federal or state races on the ballot) from 1995 to 2011, comparing three earlier non-RCV races (in 1995, 1999 and 2003) with the later two RCV races (in 2007 and 2011). Only two RCV races were studied, and as McDaniel acknowledged, only the contest in 2011 was “competitive” (that contest in 2007 was the first mayoral election using RCV, and incumbent mayor Gavin Newsom won easily in the first round of counting, earning 74% of first choices and far ahead of the second place candidate who had just 6.3% of first choices). Yet even the allegedly competitive contest in 2011was won by an incumbent with a landslide margin of nearly 20 points. No other elections were studied by McDaniel, even though San Francisco elects 17 other offices besides mayor with RCV, including the 11 seats on the Board of Supervisors (the name for the city council) in even years, and six other citywide offices in odd years. Previous academic research has found that competitive elections can stimulate greater voter involvement and higher turnout. For unexplained reasons, this study ignored at least 34 other RCV races between the years 2004 to 2011, many of which were very competitive and had high voter turnout. Instead, McDaniel’s analysis based its conclusions on data from only a single, marginally-competitive mayor’s race using RCV. These 2007 and 2011 mayoral elections were the only two RCV elections that McDaniel used as the sole basis for his small data set to determine the impact of RCV on voter turnout. Despite having no meaningful data to inform his study, McDaniel nonetheless concluded that RCV lowered turnout when compared to the previous three mayoral non-RCV elections using two-round runoffs. Then, using the same inadequate database of San Francisco elections, McDaniel also found that “Instant-runoff voting is associated with a significant decline in Black voter turnout and White voter turnout…On average, Black voter turnout decreases by 18 points and White voter turnout decreases by 16 points …” But how could he credibly arrive at that conclusion when his study was based on voter turnout in two RCV contests that were not even remotely competitive? Beyond that, McDaniel tacitly admits that the key determining factor driving Black voter turnout was not RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable Black candidate. McDaniel wrote, “Black voter turnout was about 17 percentage points higher for the two elections that featured an African American candidate compared to the three elections that did not” — but one of those three elections did not use RCV. The same dynamic was present for White voter turnout, in which higher turnout was not correlated with RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable White candidate. Beyond that, McDaniel’s voter turnout results, whether correlated with the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections, showed no clear patterns. In his Figure 1, he shows low Asian voter turnout in the non-RCV elections in 1999 and 2003 when there was no viable Asian candidate running, but in the 2007 mayoral election using RCV, there is still no viable Asian candidate, yet Asian turnout increases dramatically. For Latinos, voter turnout is virtually the same in 1999 (no viable Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2003 (leading Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2007 (no viable Latino candidate, RCV elections) and 2011 (leading Latino candidate, RCV elections). Meanwhile White voter turnout increased dramatically from a low in the 2007 mayoral election, in which the leading candidate was a white incumbent, to the 2011 election in which there were no leading white candidates that finished any higher than sixth place with 5.6% of the vote. Clearly other factors were determining voter turnout than either the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections. Despite these inconsistent findings, McDaniel boldly marches forth to render conclusions about the impact of RCV on different groups of racial voters, even though his conclusions are not remotely supported by his data. This looks like the worst kind of “data cherry picking” to cover up a puzzling conclusion based on a poor data set involving only two RCV elections, neither of which were remotely competitive. McDaniel’s cherry picking didn’t stop there. In calculating voter turnout for the three non-RCV mayoral elections in 1995, 1999 and 2003, he failed to mention that in each of these years there was a two-round runoff election, with a first round election in November in which no candidate garnered a winning majority of the vote, followed by the decisive runoff in December. So there were two non-RCV elections in each election year. But McDaniel only decided to include one of the two elections in his data set, apparently the December runoff in each year (which had higher turnout in two out of the three mayor’s races, and lower turnout in the third). So he ignored the November 1995 election, the November 1999 election when turnout was only 45 percent, and the November 2003 election when turnout was only 45.7 percent. This is flawed methodology based on blatant cherry picking, since McDaniel simply omitted three elections worth of data that did not fit within his frame. His study should never have made it through a peer review process, and it is an embarrassment to political science that not only was it approved for publication, but it has been uncritically cited by dozens of other political scientists. Share A “study” without wider context or credible data Lacking a data set that included even a single competitive RCV mayoral race, McDaniel declared that RCV lowered voter turnout in 2011, when turnout was 42.5 percent. But he also ignored -- or did not realize -- that voter turnout in mayoral elections during 2011 had sharply declined in all big cities, including far more steeply in nearby Los Angeles and other cities. In fact, San Francisco’s election in 2011 had the second highest turnout of any mayoral election in the nation’s 22 largest cities from 2008-2011. Was 2011 just a particularly low turnout year all across the country, perhaps because the country was still reeling from the aftermath of the housing market collapse in 2008-2010? McDaniel ignored this factor and did not search for alternative explanations beyond his flawed thesis. Furthermore, while McDaniel suggested that RCV leads to more “overvotes” – which is an invalidated ballot in which a voter, in either a non-RCV or RCV race, makes a mistake and selects two candidates for a single choice – he failed to address that in the June 2012 US Senate primary contest, which used the typical “one-choice” plurality method and did not use RCV, there was more than five times as many overvotes in San Francisco and Oakland than in the RCV mayoral elections in those cities. Additionally, turnout had been significantly higher and more representative in RCV elections for the San Francisco Board of Supervisors races -- that McDaniel didn’t even bother to study -- as compared to previous “delayed two-round runoffs” for those offices, often higher by as much as 40% in the RCV races. Perhaps the most surprising irony was that an earlier study co-authored by McDaniel (Overvoting and the Equality of Voice under Instant-Runoff Voting in San Francisco by Francis Neely and Jason McDaniel, 2015, California Journal of Politics and Policy) found that overvotes are often more common in lower-income precincts, but that the pattern of overvoting is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. Wrote Neely and McDaniel: “[Overvote] errors appear to be a function of complexity in general and not IRV per se…. the pattern of overvoting is similar in both IRV and non-IRV contests…Even among votes cast in a top-of-the-ticket race like U.S. Senate, overvoting occurs in an uneven fashion” (IRV, or ‘instant runoff voting,’ is another name for ranked choice voting in single-winner contests). So McDaniel not only contradicted his own conclusion in his earlier study with Neely, but the earlier study had been an important corrective for one of the most frequently made mistakes made by anti-RCV political scientists – a continual failure to provide crucial context by pairing a comparative analysis of real world RCV elections with an analysis of real world plurality or other electoral methods. Unfortunately McDaniel’s earlier study does not get cited much by other researchers, and McDaniel did not even cite it in his own flawed study analyzed above. Incredibly, McDaniel cherrypicked McDaniel, even as his flawed study has been cited dozens of times. Despite being a textbook example of poor political “science,” featuring both inadequate as well as cherrypicked data, the shelf life of McDaniel’s study has been extended endlessly by other political scientists and media outlets who have cited it uncritically. Equally troubling, the Journal of Urban Affairs put this paper through its peer review process and published it despite its numerous flaws. McDaniel gets it wrong, Part II Not content with producing one shoddy, confused paper, McDaniel produced another one a few years later, here is the link: Electoral Rules and Voter Turnout in Mayoral Elections: An Analysis of Ranked-Choice Voting by Jason McDaniel. San Francisco State Univ. (McDaniel, 2019). In this paper, McDaniel extended his previous flawed research focused on San Francisco, about voter turnout and voter impact, to multiple RCV cities through the 2018 elections. In his data set he included San Francisco, Minneapolis, St Paul, Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro and Santa Fe. He then compared their turnout in mayoral elections to non-RCV cities, and to mayoral elections in those cities held before first RCV usage, and concluded “a significant decrease in voter turnout of approximately 3–5 percentage points in RCV cities after the implementation of RCV.” But he replicated many of the same mistakes as his first study presented above. While in this study McDaniel attempted to distinguish between various factors, such as odd year vs. even year elections, competitive races vs. noncompetitive, contests with open seats and other factors, the analysis is superficial and inadequate. He attempts to incorporate so many often-conflicting variables that his conclusions are once again unsupported by the actual data, and ultimately unconvincing (this second study never underwent a peer review process). For example, McDaniel declared that for RCV cities “in elections that are more competitive than average (margin of victory less than 20%), there is no significant RCV effect on voter turnout.” Yet McDaniel is a professor in a city, San Francisco, in which the 2018 special election using RCV to fill a mayoral vacancy was exceedingly close, decided by a margin of only one percentage point, and resulted in the second highest turnout in San Francisco history for a mayoral election. Illustrating the complexity involved in assessing the critical factors in turnout, that special election was held on the same election day as federal and state offices, which tends to boost turnout. Yet more voters participated in that RCV mayoral election than voted on the same day in the non-RCV primary for governor in which former San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom was running. Even more puzzling, in this study McDaniel inaccurately cited his own previous study from 2015 with Neely. McDaniel wrote, “Neely and McDaniel (2015) examine individual ballot image files within a natural experiment, and find higher rates of ballot errors in RCV elections compared to non-RCV elections” (emphasis added). However, we quoted from that 2015 study several paragraphs above, and in actual fact Neely and McDaniel actually concluded the opposite -- that the pattern of overvoting – which is the most common form of ballot error – is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. McDaniel also ignored the fact that in Bay Area RCV elections held in even years – at the same time as federal and state elections, when turnout is highest -- the “undervote” (that is, the dropoff in ballots cast for governor or mayor) has declined, which contradicts his thesis that the act of ranking ballots in RCV elections is too complex and presents a barrier for certain demographics of voters. To his credit, McDaniel actually acknowledged another contradiction in his own paper, which found a negative RCV turnout effect in some odd-year elections but not others, admitting that “may present a challenge to the theory that increased complexity [from RCV] will have a marginal negative effect on voter turnout.” But he tried to wallpaper over that contradiction by blaming it on an unlikely source -- bad election administration. McDaniels wrote, “This would suggest that the negative impact of RCV on voter participation may be alleviated by high quality election administration,” without presenting any data or even anecdotes to support such an unfounded theory. While competent election administration of any election, whether RCV or non-RCV, is crucially important, there is no credible research that supports the far-fetched notion that the quality of election administration has much of an impact on voter turnout in US elections, whether using RCV or otherwise. Upgrade to a $5 subscription The unvirtuous circle of academic research It is puzzling how McDaniel’s first study could have survived the peer review process for the Journal of Urban Affairs. The mistakes in McDaniel’s first study above should have been obvious to anyone with a basic understanding of ranked choice voting as well as elections in general, and elections in San Francisco specifically. It undermines faith in the credibility of the peer review process to think that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the egregious errors and reject McDaniel’s sloppy research and paper. And it remains a black mark on political science that this thoroughly discredited study has been cited dozens of times by other researchers. Indeed, in our research paper it became apparent that many political scientists cite each other’s flawed research to pad their list of citations and to legitimize their own flawed research, creating an unvirtuous circle of political science. More broadly, McDaniel’s voter turnout studies, like other studies evaluating RCV’s impact on turnout, lacked a recognition that no credible opinion or research can claim that RCV increases voter turnout merely because so many voters are excited to vote for their favorite candidates instead of “lesser evil” candidates without worrying about spoilers. Instead, with respect to turnout, the advantage of RCV has always been that, in most places where it has been used, it has eliminated a pre-November primary or post-November runoff, which usually saw about half the turnout of the November general election. This is especially true during even years when there are state and federal elections on the ballot which substantially drive turnout more than local contests. Any study that does not adequately account for this non-November primary/runoff vs November general election dynamic, or odd year vs even year election factors, is simply not credible. Both of McDaniel’s studies largely failed on those grounds. Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to a $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS…your digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
Politics Unplugged (Full Episode) July 19, 2026
On this episode of Politics Unplugged, political editor Dennis Welch sits down with Joana Mendoza — a former Marine Corps drill instructor and Democratic candidate — who is challenging incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani in Arizona's Congressional District 6, discussing affordability, immigration, and ICE reform. Then, with Arizona's primary election just days away, Welch brings in Republican consultant Chip Scutari and Democrat Stacy Pearson to break down the most competitive races, including the GOP governor's primary between Andy Biggs and David Schweikert, the attorney general's race, and a crowded CD1 field. The panel also weighs in on what the early ballot returns and independent voter enthusiasm could signal heading into the general election this fall.
Trump ally seeks makeover ahead of critical Arizona governor's race
Gov. Katie Hobbs is considered the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in a swing state that's been on the 2020 election denier frontlines for years.
Vieu launches AI-ready map of business relationships, challenging sales-tech incumbents
Vieu, a Seattle startup founded by former Microsoft leaders, launched its "Business Graph" — a live map of business relationships built from observed signals like shared work history and board affiliations, rather than the self-reported connections on LinkedIn.
Vieu launches AI-ready map of business relationships, challenging tech incumbents
Vieu, a Seattle startup founded by former Microsoft leaders, launched its "Business Graph" — a live map of business relationships built from observed signals like shared work history and board affiliations, rather than the self-reported connections on LinkedIn.
Left-wing challengers are beating House Democrats. These incumbents could be next.
Democratic incumbents have struggled against democratic socialists in several primaries this year. For other lawmakers, age has become a campaign issue.
In R.I., incumbent governor faces rocky road to reelection
Polls show Rhode Island Governor Daniel McKee 20 percentage points behind in a Democratic primary rematch amid political fallout from the Washington Bridge closure.
Actors’ Equity, IATSE, Local 802 AFM Endorse New York Gov. Hochul
Actors’ Equity, IATSE and AFM Local 802 are backing the Democratic incumbent for reelection, citing her support for the industry.
Suffolk DA race: Rachael Rollins, Kevin Hayden fundraising tells story
Rachael Rollins' jump into the Suffolk district attorney's race has extended a political clash with incumbent Kevin Hayden that began four years ago.
DenOtter would change how politics is done
HOUGHTON — Republican Congressional candidate Matthew DenOtter is running for election to the U.S. House to represent Michigan’s 1st Congressional District. He is hoping to unseat incumbent Jack Bergman. The 1st Congressional District contains the 15 counties of the Upper Peninsula and 20 counties in the Lower Peninsula. “I grew up in Grand Rapids. I […]
Trump got the Senate candidates he wanted. How much will he spend to help them?
President Donald Trump has reshaped the U.S. Senate map by sidelining some Republican incumbents and promoting loyalists
How Melat Kiros, a Colorado democratic socialist, unseated a 30-year incumbent
Kiros, 29, is poised to become one of the youngest women in Congress. Her political work was sparked by the war in Gaza and caught fire in an antiestablishment year.
Democratic Socialist who ousted 15-term incumbent speaks to OutFront: ‘voters taking power into their own hands’
A Colorado primary defeat highlights a dangerous political environment for Democratic incumbents
Democratic socialist Melat Kiros defeated Rep. Diana DeGette in Denver on Tuesday night, the latest in a string of results heralding big change for the party in Washington.
Melat Kiros becomes 28th far-left candidate to win a Democratic primary this year as socialists amass power
Melat Kiros becomes the 28th far-left endorsed candidate to win a Democratic primary, ousting 15-term incumbent Diana DeGette in Colorado's 1st district.
Melat Kiros is the first political star truly formed by the 2020s
What’s behind her shocking victory against a 30-year incumbent in Colorado — according to the candidate herself.
Democratic socialist Melat Kiros defeats longtime House incumbent in Colorado primary
Kiros, a 29-year-old lawyer turned doctoral student, is the latest candidate to rise from the party's left flank and boot establishment-backed candidates.
Democratic socialist Melat Kiros poised to become the first Gen Z woman in Congress
Kiros, a political newcomer, topped 15-term-incumbent Diana DeGette in the Democratic primary in Colorado's 1st Congressional District, a reliably blue House seat.