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'City keep going from strength to strength'
"Just when you count them out, they still win two domestic trophies and are challenging for the Premier League," the former England international said. Another Wembley victory for City sees Guardiola's trophy tally at the club reach a massive 20 in his 10 years at the club. Speaking on BBC One after the final whistle, former Newcastle United striker Alan Shearer said: "It might not have been a vintage performance, but Manchester City have had to work incredibly hard for it."
Beyond the Forecast: The science of temperature inversions
Ever notice how some mornings the air feels incredibly still, and fog or chimney smoke just hovers flat over the neighborhood instead of rising? When you see this, you’re looking at a classic…
NAMRU Dayton spotlight: Driving Warfighter Health
Lt. Cmdr. Travis Landry's day-to-day responsibilities at NAMRU Dayton are incredibly diverse. On the clinical side, he maintains his operational skills by conducting submarine and physicals and supporting recruiters heading back to the fleet. Notably, he also provides essential medical care for a large, displaced population of Navy personnel in the Dayton area who are far from traditional Navy Military Treatment Facilities (MTFs)—ensuring that these sailors maintain their readiness even while stationed away from the fleet. On the research side, he plays a critical role in human subject safety. Before any study begins, he evaluates participants to ensure they qualify, reviewing their medical histories and medications to guarantee that the research will cause no harm and that the data collected will be accurate.
Scientists finally solve the 100-year mystery behind tough tires
For nearly 100 years, reinforced rubber has powered everything from car tires to airplanes, yet scientists never fully understood why adding tiny particles of carbon black made rubber so incredibly strong. Now, researchers at the University of South Florida have finally cracked the mystery using massive computer simulations that took the equivalent of 15 years of computing time. They discovered that carbon black forces rubber to “fight against itself” when stretched, dramatically boosting its strength and durability.
Valve tackles "incredibly frustrating" sold-out Steam Controller shortage with new reservation system
Couldn't get hold of one of Valve's pricey (£85) but fancy new Steam Controllers before they sold out? There's possibly a solution for you.
The Universe’s biggest black holes may be forged in violent mergers
The Universe’s biggest black holes may not be born giants after all. Scientists analyzing gravitational-wave signals from dozens of black hole collisions found evidence that the heaviest black holes are likely “cosmic recyclers” — formed through repeated smashups inside incredibly crowded star clusters. These violent chain reactions appear to create a distinct class of rapidly spinning black holes that stand apart from ordinary ones formed by dying stars.
Scientists make stunning discovery that could change our understanding of the Universe
Scientists may have uncovered a surprising secret behind why life exists at all. A new study suggests that the Universe’s fundamental constants — the deep physical rules that govern everything from atoms to stars — appear to sit within an incredibly narrow “sweet spot” that allows liquids to flow properly inside living cells. Even tiny shifts in these constants could make blood too thick, water too sticky, or cellular motion impossible, potentially wiping out life as we know it.
Science diplomacy lessons from a North Korean volcano
Mount Paektu, a mythic, active volcano on the border between North Korea and China, is almost the epitome of a scientific challenge that crosses political lines. In 946 CE, it erupted in one of the five biggest volcanic events of the past 10,000 years, kicking up huge quantities of ash and sending destructive mud flows down river channels for hundreds of kilometres. Should this happen again, the entire region, including easternmost Russia, South Korea and even Japan could be hit. “It’s definitely got the potential to be big,” said James Hammond, a professor of geophysics at Birkbeck, University of London. An eruption on the scale of 946 would have “huge regional impact.” For the past 15 years, Hammond has helped lead a groundbreaking collaboration with North Korean scientists to study the volcano, navigating scientific sanctions, tough export controls on scientific equipment and a long, pandemic-enforced exodus from the country. Although he seems more at home on far-flung research expeditions – before speaking to Science|Business, Hammond was camping out on a Greenland ice sheet – he has also advised the European Commission on its changing science diplomacy strategy. His long experience with North Korea has made Hammond sceptical of blanket bans on science collaboration, no matter the country.This is a live question in Europe, where in the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, institutional ties with Russian universities were almost entirely severed, although some scientists fear this could undermine our understanding of climate change’s impact on the Arctic. Here, Hammond tells the story of the Mount Paektu mission and the policy lessons he takes from it. Ominous rumblingsThe genesis of Hammond’s collaboration came in 2002, when Mount Paektu began to rumble ominously. Earthquake activity picked up and the volcano began to emit unusual gases. North Korean scientists took notice. “People felt we need to know more about this volcano,” said Hammond. In 2011, North Korean vulcanologists put out a request for international expertise to help them learn more. At the time, Hammond and his collaborator, Clive Oppenheimer, were working on a vulcanology project in another sanctioned country, Eritrea, and so decided to answer the call. Within a month, they had flown into Pyongyang. “It was pretty incredible,” recalls Hammond (left). “We were made to feel like honoured guests, and invited to official celebrations.” The scientific opportunity was huge. Paektu is unusually positioned, a thousand kilometres from where tectonic plates rub against each other in the Pacific. “It was an incredibly interesting volcano, but not much research had been done, at least not in the international community,” he said. “There was so much we felt we could do. And we had these partners that were super keen to engage.”The mission received an unusual visitor in the form of volcano-obsessed filmmaker Werner Herzog, who accompanied Hammond and Oppenheimer while directing his 2016 film Into the Inferno about volcanos across the world. Four days into the trip, the German director delivered a long speech about reunification to his North Korean hosts, recalls Hammond. “He got to the heart of the Koreans and how they felt, and how they thought, in a way that I'm not sure I ever will,” he said. UN sanctionsHowever, Hammond realised he’d been “naïve” about how difficult it would be to collaborate with North Korea, which was sanctioned far more heavily than Eritrea. “We didn’t fully appreciate the all-encompassing nature of restrictions,” he said. In 2016, as tensions escalated over Pyongyang’s nuclear tests, a United Nations resolution banned all joint scientific work with North Korea. However, the UN sanctions did allow countries to request carve outs, and the UK successfully requested an exemption for Hammond’s work. Related articlesEU pushes for joint science diplomacy, but care needed to avoid gridlock, experts sayRussia severs its last ties with German scienceAnchor Greenlanders in Arctic climate research, experts tell EU ahead of policy updateExport controls have also delayed Hammond’s work. In one case, it took 18 months to get approval from the UK government to take seismometers, which measure earthquakes, to North Korea. “It was frustrating,” he said. “But they didn’t just say no.” However, one instrument, called an induction coil, used to measure how the earth conducts electricity, was blocked entirely because it can in theory be used to detect submarines. Karaoke bondingSince the collaboration started in 2011, Hammond has visited the country around 15 times, although the pandemic closed off North Korea for more than five years. A trip last November was Hammond’s first since the outbreak. Despite this lengthy interlude, Hammond has deep bonds in the country. The North Korean scientists Hammond works with are somewhat isolated, as they struggle to access the latest research papers and travel to international conferences. That said, they are “excellent geophysicists” and are “very well trained in the field,” he said. Over karaoke and chats about their families, “we’ve made friendships, for sure,” he said. The authorities have to sign-off things like the placement of seismometers, for example, but Hammond said these requests have been approved. “Everything that we've asked for within a scientific context has been delivered.”Scientific backchannels? These kind of personal links between scientists across political lines are one purported benefit of science diplomacy. During the Cold War, some historians argue, scientific contact between the US and Soviet Union laid a groundwork of trust for other cooperation, such as on arms control. Hammond agrees that backchannel contacts to North Korean geophysicists are hardly likely to defuse a military crisis on the Korean peninsula, but the simple fact of the scientific collaboration makes contacts between diplomats that little bit easier. “It creates opportunities to understand each other a little bit better,” he said. “When maybe you have those more difficult discussions as diplomats, it's coming from a slightly better place.” Cutting tiesDrawing lessons from the Mount Paektu mission for today’s links with Russian science isn’t simple. The analogy is far from exact, Hammond said, “because one is essentially a Cold War, versus a pretty hot war in the case of Russia.” But Hammond’s broader argument is that the challenges we face, such as climate change, pandemics, biodiversity loss, pollution and so on, have globalised in an unprecedented way, making blanket shutdowns in collaboration with any country unwise.He’s somewhat critical of the UN scientific sanctions imposed on North Korea in 2016, even though they did allow for exceptions. “I think a blanket halt to some of these things, when we face big global challenges [. . .] that’s quite a risky thing to do,” he said.Institutional endorsement?European academics are still by and large free to work individually with Russian counterparts. However, official, institutional partnerships have largely ended. Shortly following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russian university rectors wrote a public letter endorsing the war, meaning European universities fear official collaboration could also be seen as a kind of endorsement. Hammond acknowledges there is a risk of legitimising regimes, and state-controlled universities, through scientific cooperation. “That’s the trade off you have to make,” he said. Strategic projectsWith Russia, instead of giving a green light to restart all Arctic science, a middle ground might be firing up a few carefully selected “strategic” projects, said Hammond. After all, European countries are still collaborating with Russia on the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor, an experimental nuclear fusion plant in the south of France. However, even if Europe did try to revive Arctic science with Russia, there’s no guarantee Russian scientists would play ball. A series of high-profile arrests of physicists in Russia accused of sharing their findings with the outside world has made collaboration fraught. Even before the invasion of 2022, “the Russian regime made it increasingly difficult, and this sort of discouraged people,” Dag Rune Olsen, rector of the Arctic University of Norway, told Science|Business last year.
'iPhone Ultra' Could Be Industry's Most Repairable Foldable
The leaker "Instant Digital" today revisited their February design report on the foldable iPhone, claiming the device's internal design will make it the easiest-to-disassemble and easiest-to-repair foldable phone in the industry. In a new post on Weibo, Instant Digital said the device's "incredibly rigorous underlying engineering logic" has "truly paid off," and predicted that teardown videos will vindicate the earlier claims once the device ships.
NASA Research Shows Early Life Relied on Rare Metal
NASA-funded scientists have discovered that life on Earth over 3 billion years ago relied on the metal molybdenum, which was incredibly scarce in the
Leaker indicates that Nvidia's GeForce RTX 3060 returns this June, retaining its 12GB VRAM offering
Reports from Chinese industry forums and leakers claim Nvidia will restart production of the GeForce RTX 3060 12GB in June 2026, with add-in board partners targeting a July launch to offset delays and uncertainty around an entry-level RTX 50-series release amid ongoing GPU and memory shortages. The move would rely on newly fabbed Samsung 8nm Ampere chips rather than clearing old stock, but pricing and supply remain key uncertainties that will determine whether the card can credibly serve budget buyers.
Reflections on My First Year at Hawaii Business Magazine
Over the past 12 months, we have been strategic about how we evolve our storytelling and expand our reach, and the results have been incredibly rewarding.
“They Pushed Him Back Inside Me”: “Fresh Prince Of Bel-Air” Star Tatyana Ali Has Shared Her Horrifying Birth Story While Speaking Out Against Racial Bias In Maternal Health
“It's an incredibly dangerous thing that they did; they could have snapped his neck; this is after hours of them holding me down.”
‘Incredibly difficult decision’: Ammon sisters shut down massage business amid financial strain
Do you want to know what’s happening in the eastern Idaho business scene? We’ve got you covered. Here is a rundown of this week’s business news across the valley. BIZ BUZZ AMMON Ammon massage clinic closes as costs rise Sign on storefront of Modern Mindbody Massage in Ammon. | Rett Nelson, EastIdahoNews.com AMMON – Customers […]
From science to stage- Mary Johnson’s final weeks leading to graduation
You can find Mary Johnson sitting in the lounge area of Chase Science Center at Lakeland University, surrounded by her friends and classmates, cracking jokes and being an absolute academic weapon. Normally sitting on the front seat of the table facing everyone, Johnson spreads her positive attitude through determination and an incredibly high academic drive....
Alleged Trump Shooter's Steam Game Pulled From Sale
A wealth of incredibly unfunny reviews were added over the weekend until the game was yoinked
CBL Scholars Program Opens Pathways to Business Law Careers - UC Law San Francisco (Formerly UC Hastings)
First-year law students and 2026 CBL Scholars Deniz Masjedi, Alvaro Flores, and Tavia Pappaly gain mentorship connections with leading industry professionals as they prepare for careers in business law. Created by the UC Center for Business Law San Francisco (CBL), the CBL Scholars Program aims to develop the next generation of business law leaders, supported by contributions from individuals and corporate sponsors. The highly competitive program provides funding along with academic and professional mentorship to students from disadvantaged backgrounds. Scholars gain exposure to the Bay Area’s technology and venture capital ecosystems and access to UC Law SF’s broad network of senior legal professionals. Now in its sixth year, the CBL Scholars Program provides a scholarship and academic and professional mentorship to students entering the business law community from disadvantaged educational, economic, social, or physical backgrounds. The program is generously sponsored by the law firms Gunderson Dettmer and Goodwin Procter. Meet this year’s CBL Scholars: Deniz Masjedi, Alvaro Flores, and Tavia Pappaly. All three have secured summer associate positions at prestigious law firms. Deniz Masjedi: A Passion for Helping Founders Grow Companies Deniz Masjedi, who was born in Iran and moved to Southern California as a teenager, traces her interest in law to her family’s immigration journey and her desire to advocate for herself and her family. She earned a bachelor’s degree at UC Berkeley, where she studied political science and sociology. At UC Law SF, she serves as a 1L representative for the Iranian Law Students Association and is active in the Business Law Society and Technology & Law Society. Next fall, she will serve as director of mentorship for the Technology & Law Society and director of professional development for the Business Law Society. She will join Sidley Austin this year as a 1L/2L summer associate. Q: What draws you to business law? A: Prior to law school, I worked in Cooley LLP’s Private Companies practice group as a corporate paralegal for three years, supporting over 100 venture-backed startups and venture capital funds. I found purpose in helping founders transform their vision into successful companies. It was incredibly rewarding being part of their journeys—from company formation and initial financing to major transactions such as M&A deals. What excites me most about this field is the potential for a small, innovative company to become the next Google or Zoom, shaping how people communicate and access information. I hope to continue supporting entrepreneurs and investors as a corporate attorney. Q: What does it mean to you to have been awarded this scholarship? A: As the first person in my family to attend law school in the United States, receiving this scholarship is a tremendous honor. My parents and I left everything behind so that I could enjoy the freedom to practice my religion without persecution and pursue a career in law as a woman. This award is an acknowledgment of my dedication to business law and motivates me to continue pursuing excellence in this field. It also recognizes years of hard work—learning a new language, navigating the college and law school application process, and ultimately building a career in the legal profession. Q: How will this scholarship help support your future goals? A: This scholarship will provide access to mentorship from leaders in the field, enabling me to develop the skills necessary to offer practical advice and effective representation to future clients. It also eases the financial burden of law school, letting me focus on my coursework and deepen my commitment to corporate law. As an immigrant, breaking into the legal profession has not always been easy, and the time that mentors have invested in me has been instrumental to my progress. This scholarship will allow me to continue building those relationships while positioning me to one day mentor others pursuing similar paths. Alvaro Flores: Inspired by Entrepreneurs The son of Mexican immigrants raised in San Antonio, Texas, Alvaro Flores says he has long been interested in how policy, markets, and culture shape society. He studied international relations and global economy at the University of Southern California, with minors in business finance and legal studies. His experiences span local political organizing, venture capital and startup work, and teaching entrepreneurship. At UC Law SF, he is involved in the Business Law Society, Technology & Law Society, and the Latinx Law Student Association. He will join Perkins Coie as a 1L/2L summer associate with the firm’s Emerging Companies & Venture Capital practice. Q: What draws you to business law? A: I’m drawn to stories of entrepreneurs whose simple ideas become companies that shape the economy and society. Spending time in venture capital and working directly with founders has shown me that many important decisions in the scaling process are ultimately legal ones, particularly how companies are structured and how capital is raised. Business law sits at the intersection of innovation and equity. It offers a way to stay close to the pace of technological change while also helping expand who gets to participate in it. There is something special about being part of that process here in the Bay Area, where the American Dream feels like it is reimagined in real time. Q: What does it mean to you to have been awarded this scholarship? A: I am truly grateful for the support and belief this scholarship represents. I see it not just as recognition, but also as alignment. The CBL Scholars Program’s focus on developing individuals who engage deeply with the business and technology ecosystem reflects the path I have been intentionally building. More than anything, it feels like an investment in that journey. I have been thoughtful about each next step–whether teaching, working in venture capital, or building multidisciplinary experiences–and this scholarship reinforces that those efforts come together in a meaningful way. Q: How will this scholarship help support your future goals? A: It allows me to focus more on developing as a business lawyer, without the distraction of financial constraints. Beyond that, the mentorship and access to the Bay Area network are just as valuable. I’m especially interested in working with early-stage companies and investors, so the opportunity to learn directly from people operating at a high level in that space is huge. Tavia Pappaly: Working in the Wine Industry Sparked Interest in Business and Law Tavia Pappaly spent five years in the wine industry before deciding to pursue law school with a goal of becoming a corporate transactions attorney. Pappaly says she wants to use her legal skills to help business grow and thrive. A first-generation law student from Fairfield, California, she is a member of the Legal Education Opportunity Program (LEOP) and will serve as vice president of social planning for the UC Law SF Sports Law Society in her 2L year. She plans to work as a summer associate at Gibson Dunn in San Francisco after her 2L year. Q: What draws you to business law? A: Business law brings together many of my interests and personal experiences. As the daughter of immigrants who grew up around a family-owned small business, I saw firsthand both the opportunities and challenges of building something from the ground up. That perspective, combined with my experience in the wine industry, solidified my interest in helping businesses of all sizes tackle evolving legal challenges. I’m excited to grow within the corporate law space and develop the skills and experience to support businesses at every stage. I’m deeply motivated to give back to immigrant communities and small business owners, whose experiences often intersect. By building a strong foundation in corporate law, I hope to support those working to create generational stability and to contribute in a meaningful way to the communities that have shaped me. Q: What does it mean to you to have been awarded this scholarship? A: Receiving this scholarship is incredibly meaningful to me. I take great pride in my background as a first-generation student and a woman of color, so being recognized for my potential in a field that has historically underrepresented those communities is both affirming and empowering. This program will help connect me to the resources and committed mentors that will help me succeed. Beyond that, it is no secret that law school is a significant financial commitment. This scholarship helps ease both the financial burden and the stress that comes with it, allowing me to focus more on my education and long-term goals. I am incredibly grateful! Q: How will this scholarship help support your future goals? A: This scholarship has already connected me with an incredible network of faculty, business law professionals, and like-minded students. The community fostered by the Center for Business Law is deeply supportive, and I’m excited to grow alongside my cohort. I truly believe this network will play an important role in helping me thrive in law school and position me for success in business law. As I have seen firsthand how impactful both financial scholarship and mentorship are, I hope to give back in this same way later in my career.
Focusing in on human health research at annual space meeting
Long-duration spaceflight can chip away at an astronaut’s health, prompting scientists to find new ways to make living in space easier on the body. The journey to outer space is incredibly dangerous, but crews must also face day-to-day hazards, such as exposure to cancer-causing radiation, microgravity and extreme isolation. Understanding and ...
Slow Starts (And Hopeful Turnarounds)
Some players get off to incredibly hot starts to the year. Very few keep it up, with most flaming out. […]
'We're the best servants anyone could dream of!' AI superintelligence has no need to enslave humans because we're already bowing to it
A future AI would have no need to rid the world of humanity because we're incredibly useful. But if it did want to shrug us off, this is how it would likely play out.
Hubble dazzles with young stars in Trifid Nebula for 36th anniversary
The NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope looked at a scene it first captured in 1997 in honour of 36th anniversary: a small portion of a star-forming region about 5000 light-years away in the constellation Sagittarius, known as the Trifid Nebula. The image shows changes over incredibly short timescales and instills a sense of awe and wonder about our ever-changing Universe.
Jane Seymour Celebrates 75th Birthday With ‘Dr. Quinn’ Cast Reunion
‘To see dear friends from so many chapters of my life, including some I hadn’t seen in decades, was incredibly moving,’ the actor said.
Jane Seymour Celebrates 75th Birthday With ‘Dr. Quinn’ Cast Reunion
‘To see dear friends from so many chapters of my life, including some I hadn’t seen in decades, was incredibly moving,’ the actor said.
UC Health reaches milestone with 10,000 robotic surgeries: ‘Incredibly proud’
UC Health has achieved a major milestone, completing 10,000 robotic surgeries that are transforming operating rooms with advanced technology.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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Airbnb Externship Shows 3L Isabel Samayoa How Legal Strategy Drives Business Growth - UC Law San Francisco (Formerly UC Hastings)
An externship at Airbnb provided 3L Isabel Samayoa exposure to areas such as contracts, licensing, risk management, and growth strategy, helping her develop the skills and experience to thrive in her future career as a corporate transactions attorney. 3L student Isabel Samayoa reflects on her work with Airbnb’s in-house legal team through UC Law SF’s Corporate Counsel Externship Program. Supported Airbnb’s legal team on commercial contracts, open-source licensing, external partnerships, product counseling, and legal research. Observed how legal advice aligns with business strategy and risk management. Gained exposure to strategic decision-making while preparing for a career in corporate transactions. Q: What did you do in this corporate externship? A: I supported the Airbnb legal team across several functions, including commercial contracts, open-source licensing matters, strategic external partnerships, legal research, real estate matters, internal AI integration, and product counseling. I also gained exposure to corporate structure counseling, litigation, patent counseling, and the company’s broader business strategy. Q: What did you take away from this experience? A: One of the most valuable parts of this experience was learning how a business actually operates. I had never worked on such a large team in the private sector, so I had little exposure to how companies run internally. I learned how lawyers can provide valuable advice to support business goals, seeing how leadership evaluates risk and develops growth strategies. Understanding those priorities allows me to calibrate my legal advice to clients, balancing the client’s goals against the level of risk they are willing to take. Q: How does this experience support your career goals? A: Exploring the anatomy of a successful company was incredibly valuable because I plan to pursue a career as a corporate transactions lawyer. Being in the room with the teams discussing important decisions allowed me to see firsthand the factors that contribute to that success and how lawyers help guide those decisions. Q: Would you recommend UC Law SF and this externship? Why? A: I would absolutely recommend this opportunity. While the team worked on high-stakes matters at a highly successful company, they still created an environment where I felt welcomed. They trusted me with meaningful work and supported me every step of the way. This helped me build confidence in my analytical abilities. Q: What’s your favorite UC Law SF memory so far? A: Some of my favorite UC Law SF memories, aside from my time at Airbnb, involve mentorship. I have benefited from mentorship and have also had the chance to mentor other law students. Watching the students I mentored go on to mentor others has been particularly rewarding. I think mentorship is integral to the legal profession, and it has been inspiring to see that culture thrive at UC Law SF and continue beyond the classroom. The Evidence of Success series highlights UC Law SF students as they share how the College’s opportunities equip them with the experience, skills, and confidence to excel in the legal profession.
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This cow uses tools like a primate—and scientists are stunned
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NASA’s Hubble accidentally caught a comet breaking apart in real time
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“Loyal Slaves” and Campfire Entertainment in Frank Vizetelly’s Confederate Camp
Frank Vizetelly’s illustration titled “Night Amusements in the Confederate Camp” appeared in the Illustrated London News on January 10, 1863. It was one among a number of wartime scenes that Vizetelly captured for the newspaper. Subscribe Following the war, the illustration appeared in a number of books, including John O. Casler’s Four Years in the Stonewall Brigade (1893) and Campfires of the Confederacy (1898) by Ben La Bree. The scene depicts a Confederate camp at night with an enslaved man, most likely a camp servant, performing a dance around a fire with the music provided by a soldier playing a banjo. Another enslaved man looks on at the right. Vizetelly likely witnessed the scene—one that would have been common throughout the war. It’s a wonderful example of the way in which Confederates—slaveowners and nonslaveowners alike—experienced the presence of slave labor in the army. Vizetelly was deeply sympathetic to the Confederate cause. His depiction of the enslaved man as more than happy to entertain the very people who were fighting to keep him enslaved was precisely the kind of image designed to reassure a British audience that slavery was benign, and by implication, that Britain need not feel morally troubled about recognizing or supporting the Confederacy. Share Just as importantly, the sight of a dancing slave reassured Confederates themselves that the institution of slavery remained secure even after President Lincoln signed the Emancipation Proclamation. I’ve come across this illustration many times before and I plan on using it in my next book project on the role of enslaved labor in the Confederate army during the Gettysburg Campaign, but this is not the reason I am sharing it with you today. It has to do with where I recently found it, which came as a complete surprise and is incredibly revealing. Let’s take a look.
We Met Frozen's Olaf at Walt Disney Imagineering and Caught a Glimpse of the Future of Immersive Entertainment at Disney Parks
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Apollo rocks reveal the Moon had brief bursts of super-strong magnetism
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Could this be the most impactful year ever in Seattle sports?
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3L Ediz Kalkan Builds Practice-Ready Skills through UC Law SF’s Business Law Concentration - UC Law San Francisco (Formerly UC Hastings)
3L student Ediz Kalkan combined rigorous coursework, mentorship, and hands-on client experience to emerge ready for corporate practice. 3L student Ediz Kalkan shares how UC Law SF’s Business Law Concentration helped him gain the practical skills, doctrinal knowledge, and professional confidence to pursue a career advising corporate clients. It’s one of 12 concentrations that allow JD students to gain specialized expertise in a focused area of legal practice. 3L Ediz Kalkan built a strong foundation in corporate law through specialized coursework and mentorship from faculty and industry leaders. He gained hands-on client experience advising startups through the Startup Legal Garage and through roles in-house and at a law firm. He emerged prepared to handle sophisticated legal matters and interact confidently with clients. 3L Ediz Kalkan: I always gravitated toward business law courses at UC Law SF, so it made sense to memorialize that interest by completing the concentration — especially since I already planned to take most of the required coursework. I have taken many practical- and doctrinal-focused courses, including practical-oriented courses such as Mergers and Acquisitions, Venture Capital and Start Ups, Startup Business Lawyering, Private Equity and Hedge Funds, Corporate Governance, Corporate Finance and a few others. On the doctrinal side, I have taken Business Associations and am currently enrolled in Bankruptcy and Securities Regulation. These courses and professors equipped me with a strong foundation in universal corporate legal principals, fluency in the jargon, and insight into how corporate law intersects with markets, public and private companies, and government agencies. I also gained invaluable mentorship and lessons from industry leaders — both from the faculty and the dozens of guest speakers invited to the classroom. At UC Law SF, I participated in the Corporate Module of the Startup Legal Garage, where I observed practicing attorneys and helped real clients with real startup-related legal needs. I learned substantive law, business strategy — and most importantly — was socialized to the practice of law and the etiquette and expectations of being a junior attorney. I spent my 1L summer at AXOS Bank, a commercial bank in San Diego, where I gained experience with securities regulation, enterprise banking, and in-house work at a public company. From January of my 2L year to now, I have worked as a law clerk at Bartko Pavia LLP, gaining experience in a traditional law firm setting. I have had the privilege of working with startups all the way to public companies, as well as international clients. The experience has strengthened my confidence in tackling complex legal issues and interacting with clients. Through these experiences, I’ve learned that effectively advising clients takes more than subject-matter expertise. This work, and my time in the UC Law SF business concentration, have inspired me to pursue an MBA after law school to become a more well-rounded professional. My career plans remain focused on corporate practice and enhancing my value as a business advisor. I would happily recommend UC Law SF and this concentration because of its robust course catalog, highly successful professors and adjuncts, and extensive resources. Not to mention, UC Law SF is uniquely situated just minutes away from many of the world’s most innovative companies, all of which have legal needs — creating meaningful opportunities for students. My peers and I have been incredibly fortunate to have access to this network of industry leaders and legal professionals. Ultimately, business lawyers can take many paths, but all require the strong foundation that the business law concentration and the incredible people at UC Law SF provide. The Evidence of Success series highlights UC Law SF students as they share how the college’s opportunities equip them with the experience, skills, and confidence to excel in the legal profession.
Scientists discover "time crystals" that defy Newton’s third law
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Credibly Business Loans Review 2026
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Celebrating Women in Science Day 2026 at CERN
Every year, on 11 February, CERN celebrates the International Day of Women and Girls in Science. In an effort to amplify diverse voices in STEM, six women scientists from CERN open up about their careers and the lessons they hope to pass on to the next generation. Francesca is an Italian biomedical engineer pursuing her PhD at CERN, working in the robotics team of the Beams Department. She’s currently working on the MARCHESE project, in affiliation with Campus Bio-Medico University of Rome, focusing on contactless monitoring of physiological parameters. Despite choosing a scientific career and often volunteering in scientific outreach initiatives, Francesca continues to nurture her passion for the humanities and arts. “I firmly believe that collaboration and inclusion are the right paths to improve the world together. I’m driven by a strong curiosity about everything around me.” Berare is a Turkish experimental physicist who worked with the ATLAS experiment during her MSc and PhD on searches for physics beyond the Standard Model. During her PhD, she became a Support Scientist for the Beamline for Schools (BL4S) competition, which marked the beginning of her journey combining research with science communication. She now works for both BL4S and ELISA, the mini proton accelerator at CERN’s Science Gateway. She fondly remembers the moment when the BL4S 2022 winners arrived at the experimental zone: “I felt incredibly lucky to share my passion with young, curious and really passionate people. We spent two weeks of beam time together watching their ideas turn into reality. All the intricate details of running an experiment, we accomplished them as a team.” Mia is a Canadian research fellow in the Accelerator Systems Department, working on beam developments for fundamental physics with radioactive molecules. Mia pursued a bachelor’s degree in mechanical engineering before moving to Vancouver for a master’s degree in engineering physics. Her interest in radioactive ion beam production brought her to CERN, where she studied actinide beams for three years as a PhD student in the Marie Curie European Training network “LISA” (Laser Ionisation and Spectroscopy of Actinides) at ISOLDE – a facility at CERN where scientists study the properties of atomic nuclei, with further applications in fundamental studies, astrophysics, and material and life sciences. Laura is a German mechanical engineer at CERN working on research and development to produce cavities for future accelerators. She studied mechanical and aerospace engineering at the Technical University of Munich. She joined CERN four years ago as a technical student for her master’s thesis and continued as a fellow working on collimators. Laura says that “as a child, I took part in girls’ day initiatives, which sparked my fascination for astrophysics and engineering. Later, it felt natural for me to give something back by organising workshops for young students to make STEM seem less intimidating and more accessible.” She particularly enjoys being close to the CERN Main Workshop and understanding how design ideas become real components. Paraskevi is a Greek physicist working at CERN’s HiRadMat (High-Radiation to Materials) facility, designed to deliver high-intensity beams to an irradiation area where material samples, as well as accelerator component assemblies, can be tested. She studied physics at NKUA, specialising in nuclear and particle physics, and is now pursuing her PhD at HiRadMat in collaboration with the University of Liverpool, studying novel materials for high-intensity beam diagnostics. “Continuous learning is one of my biggest motivators, and I am looking forward to exploring the limits of our knowledge on beam-material interactions,” says Paraskevi. Silvia is a Spanish physicist and deputy project manager for the Muon Drift Tube of the CMS detector, a general-purpose detector at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). She started her career at CERN more than 20 years ago as a technical student, working on prototypes of the first dipoles for the LHC. “My first motivation came in high school, from my teacher,” says Silvia about what made her pursue a career in STEM. “My favourite part about my job is learning. You can learn something new every day.” In parallel to this initiative, like every year since 2017, from 2 to 6 February 66 women scientists and engineers visited schools in Geneva, Switzerland, and in the Haute-Savoie and Ain regions of France to meet with students. Organised in collaboration with CERN, the University of Geneva, EPFL, LAPP and LAPTh, this event allowed more than 4200 students between 6 and 17 years old to meet a woman scientist, discuss their profession and career path, ask questions and participate in classroom activities.
This tiny molecular trick makes spider silk almost unbreakable
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Scientists Discover a New Quantum State of Matter Once Considered Impossible
This could be incredibly useful.
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I've been to all 50 states. These 4 cities are surprisingly underrated and incredibly fun to visit.
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Seventeen-year-old Grace Lee from Chula Vista is gaining national attention as a finalist in the global Breakthrough Junior Challenge, an annual competition that invites students to create original videos explaining complex scientific ideas in creative and engaging ways. Founded in 2015, the contest encourages young people to break down advanced scientific theories using imagination and storytelling— “Steven Spielberg meets Albert Einstein,” as organizers describe it. Lee’s submission centers on the principle of least time in physics, a concept that explains why light always travels the path that takes the least amount of time. To bring the idea to life, she used intricate origami characters and stop-motion animation, along with simple at-home experiments, she said. “The fact that light always travels via the path that takes the least amount of time sounds simple at first, but nature is full of surprises,” she said. “This principle is actually very profound and underlies many different fields in physics that seem completely unrelated, from optics to Newton’s laws to Einstein’s theory of relativity.” Also, origami has long been one of her passions and integrating it into her project felt natural. She often makes origami gifts for friends and teaches origami in her school clubs. “A single 10-second scene would take hours to craft,” she said, noting the mixture of stop-motion and post-production editing required to animate expressions and movement. To ensure the science remained accurate and accessible, she spent time reading books and online resources, writing a script, creating a storyboard, and filming and editing repeatedly until the visuals worked.The experiments were among the biggest challenges. To demonstrate water waves, she used everyday household items — “a spatula and an electric toothbrush to vibrate the waves, glass in a baking pan for different depths, and an iPhone flashlight so the waves would be visible.” She also put careful thought into explaining the principle through analogies, including a gingerbread man and a fox. “Analogies and visuals are incredibly important,” she said. “Visual demonstrations allow viewers to see how the science actually works.” Beyond the competition, Lee is deeply involved in science leadership and advocacy. She serves as International President of miRcore, the world’s largest student computational biology organization, with 136 chapters across five countries. She leads a 20-member executive board, organizes outreach connecting schools worldwide, and has helped run workshops at locations including Scripps Research Institute and the University of Michigan. “I used to be intimidated,” she said, but she gradually grew her skills and confidence. “Now I am no longer afraid to use my voice and enthusiasm to bring out the best in others.” Her research experience includes two peer-reviewed papers on asthma and vaping. Misconceptions around vaping, she said, show why clear science communication matters. “Our research shows that there is long-term harm to your lungs on the cellular level that isn’t obvious unless you come down with an illness like the flu,” she said. Lee also founded Full Hearts at Eastlake High School, transforming the small club into one of the school’s largest, with hands-on service projects in partnership with local nonprofits. She continues mentoring younger students to sustain the mission. If she wins the Breakthrough Junior Challenge, Grace hopes the $100,000 science lab prize for her school will expand opportunities for students who have limited access to equipment and hands-on science outside the classroom.
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