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Sound Royalties Strengthens International Presence With Appointment of Music and Entertainment Veteran Melanie Cameron, as Regional Director of Business Development for the United Kingdom
/PRNewswire/ -- Sound Royalties (the "Company"), the pioneering provider of creator-friendly financing for music and entertainment professionals, announces the...
Kirk Cameron Left California Because of 'Terrible' Politics
'Growing Pains' star Kirk Cameron left California because of 'terrible' politics.
Kitchener teen wins innovation award at Canada-Wide Science Fair, fixes 35-year-old problem
Gurnoor Kaur, a Grade 11 student at Cameron Height Collegiate Institute in Kitchener, has won the best project award for innovation at the Canada-Wide Science Fair in Edmonton.
Kirk Cameron praises Nashville's 'good values' after ditching California over cost of living, politics
Kirk Cameron explains why he packed up and left California for Tennessee, citing progressive policies and the high cost of living in the Golden State.
Goal-Concordant Care Collaboration a Driver in Health Equity Improvement
Some hospices have found success employing more community-based methodologies in their health equity improvement efforts. Forging deeper relationships
Keeping sports in the family with Cameron and Deven Dyer; Van Tate’s Sports Office
ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (KRQE) – If there’s a local family that is poised to have a legacy in New Mexico Sports, it’s the Dyer family. This week KRQE Sports Director Van Tate sat down with Ca…
Inside Valley Politics: Candidates in Democratic runoff races face off
HARLINGEN, Texas (ValleyCentral) — As Democratic candidates approached the runoff election finish line, they gathered in Harlingen to face off one last time. The Northern Cameron County Democrats h…
Denver Broncos roster review: Wide receiver Cameron Ross
Undrafted rookie free agent wide receiver Cameron Ross is a practice squad candidate for the Denver Broncos.
Royals look to end slide in matchup with the Cardinals
Kansas City Royals (19-26, fifth in the AL Central) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (26-18, third in the NL Central) St. Louis; Saturday, 2:15 p.m. EDT PITCHING PROBABLES: Royals: Noah Cameron (2-2, 5.55 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 32 strikeouts); Cardinals: Kyle Leahy (4-3, 4.31 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 32 strikeouts) LINE: Royals -112, Cardinals -106; over/under is 8 1/2 runs BOTTOM LINE: The Kansas City Royals aim to end a five-game slide with a victory over the St. Louis Cardinals. St. Louis has an 11-10 record in home games and a 26-18 record overall.
NBA Draft Combine winners: Awards for top performers, including Cameron Boozer and the biggest riser
Cameron Boozer's GPA surfaces ahead of NBA Draft
Duke's Player of the Year is a bookworm.
Trump nominates Cameron Hamilton to lead FEMA, a year after he was fired from the role
The nomination suggests a shift in the administration’s stance on FEMA, which has faced criticism from President Donald Trump.
Trump nominates Cameron Hamilton to lead FEMA, year after he was fired from role
The former Navy SEAL was fired last after defending FEMA's existence
NBA Mock Draft 2026: Cameron Boozer falls to Bulls at No. 4 after Grizzlies take Caleb Wilson at No. 3
Gary Parrish's first mock draft after Sunday's lottery has a few surprises
GameThread: Tigers vs. Royals, 7:20 p.m.
Detroit Tigers (18-22) vs. Kansas City Royals (19-21) Time/Place: 7:20 p.m., Kauffman StadiumSB Nation Site: Royals ReviewMedia: NBC Sports Network/Peacock, Tigers Radio NetworkPitching Matchup: RHP Brenan Hanifee (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. LHP Noah Cameron (2-2, 5.40 ERA)
Where Cameron Boozer likely lands following NBA draft lottery
Former Duke star Cameron Boozer will more than likely land with the Utah Jazz after the franchise won the second overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft.
Arizona Cardinals UDFA profile: OLB Cameron Robertson
OLB Cameron Robertson was one of the Cardinals' seven rookie free agent additions. Find out more about him.
Cameron Young shoots 63 at Quail Hollow, trails Alex Fitzpatrick by 2
Fitzpatrick was at 14-under 199 through 54 holes, one shot ahead of Norway's Kristoffer Reitan after each shot 64.
Scenes from a UNCW business school commencement ceremony
The University of North Carolina Wilmington's Cameron School of Business held a commencement ceremony at Trask Coliseum on May 9, 2026.
Is the FDA Really Suppressing Science? Plus. . .
It’s Thursday, May 7. This is The Front Page, your daily window into the world of The Free Press—and our take on the world at large. Today: Aaron MacLean says Trump is poised to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in the Iran war. Joe Klein on the life of CNN founder Ted Turner. Jillian Lederman on why cruise ships are here to stay. And much more. But first: Is the FDA suppressing science? On Tuesday, The New York Times published a story with an alarming takeaway. “FDA Blocked Publication of Research Finding Covid and Shingles Vaccines Were Safe,” read the headline. It is the latest in a string of stories that all have the same message: The Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and other agencies, are engaged in a cover-up—and silencing scientists trying to get the word out about the Covid vaccine. What all these stories suggest—some more subtly than others—is that the outsiders now running the public health establishment, officials such as Marty Makary at the FDA and Jay Bhattacharya at the National Institutes of Health, are on a revenge tour. That they are doing harm to the country to get back at the scientists and bureaucrats who ostracized them for deviating from the public-health consensus during the pandemic. It’s a seductive narrative. But is it true? That’s the question we address in our latest editorial. —The Editors Read [ Marty Makary's FDA Has All the Right Enemies ](https://www.thefp.com/p/marty-makary-vaccine-study-fda) [ Trump Blinks First ](https://www.thefp.com/p/iran-peace-deal-pakistan-trump-strait-of-hormuz) Aaron MacLean In return for no detectable concessions, President Trump this week gave up on forcing open the Strait of Hormuz. Now, the Trump administration looks desperate for a deal to end the war with Iran. It’s easy to understand the desire to end the war, but are they blowing the chance at victory? Aaron MacLean makes sense of the administration’s latest moves—and Iran’s response—in his column today. Read full story Aaron MacLean and Niall Ferguson: Live in New York City Join Aaron MacLean and Niall Ferguson on May 19 for a live recording of School of War at the iconic New York Historical. In a conversation as timely as it is wide-ranging, Aaron and Niall will explore the strategic stakes of the moment, including the Middle East, China, and the future of American leadership on the global stage. Get Tickets Now [ Ted Turner, the Optimist Who Built CNN ](https://www.thefp.com/p/ted-turner-cnn-tribute) Joe Klein The man who gave us CNN and the 24-hour news cycle, Ted Turner, died Wednesday at the age of 87. Today, political writer Joe Klein—who almost ghostwrote Turner’s autobiography—remembers his friend, the American media mogul who stood out for his idealism and lack of a filter—something that got Turner in trouble more than once. “His was not a traditional intelligence, but one of horizon: Ted saw things before other people did,” Joe writes. Read full story [ Nothing Can Sink the Cruise Ship ](https://www.thefp.com/p/cruise-ship-hantavirus) Jillian Lederman A viral outbreak on a cruise ship that left three passengers dead has left some people wondering: Are cruise ships on the way out? Not so fast, says Jillian Lederman, who has been on many a cruise herself. Read her piece on why 38 million people a year take a cruise—and aren’t about to stop. Read full story [ The Great Writers Who Were Terrible People ](https://www.thefp.com/p/the-great-writers-who-were-terrible) Shilo Brooks Throughout history, some of the greatest literary geniuses have also been immoral bigots. In the latest episode of Old School, Shilo Brooks is joined by Eli Lake for a conversation about those geniuses, from Voltaire to Norman Mailer and Roald Dahl—and why we should read their work despite their odious prejudices. Listen on MORE FROM THE FREE PRESS [ Inside the Digital Intifada ](https://www.thefp.com/p/digital-intifada-social-media-hamas-terror) Warren Kinsella Read full story [ This Week in American History: Trump’s Over-Arching Problem ](https://www.thefp.com/p/this-week-in-american-history-trumps-over-arching-problem) Jonathan Horn Read full story [ Humanity Is Still Evolving—and Fast ](https://www.thefp.com/p/humanity-is-still-evolvingand-fast) Razib Khan Read full story THE NEWS Thirteen D.C. Metropolitan Police officers have been placed on administrative leave and could face termination after an internal investigation found evidence that crime statistics were manipulated to make the city look safer. The Republican-led House Oversight Committee previously alleged that former D.C. police chief Pamela Smith pressured officers to skew data. Tennessee Republicans unveiled a redrawn U.S. House map yesterday that would split up Memphis’s black-majority Democratic district, the latest move in a nationwide push to redraw congressional boundaries ahead of the midterms. The effort follows a Supreme Court ruling last week on Louisiana’s districts, which Tennessee House Speaker Cameron Sexton said gave states the green light to redraw maps along partisan lines. Israel struck Beirut for the first time since a ceasefire with Hezbollah took effect last month, saying it targeted a commander of the militant group’s elite Radwan force in the city’s southern suburbs. The strikes risk destabilizing that truce at a delicate moment, as Iran and the U.S. report progress toward a deal to resolve their own standoff. The U.S. Air Force is aiming for a Fourth of July delivery of a Boeing 747 gifted by Qatar, hoping to add it to the Air Force One fleet in time for the U.S.’s 250th anniversary, Reuters reported. (For more on the controversy surrounding the aircraft, read Jed Rubenfeld’s piece “It’s a Terrible Idea, but Trump Probably Can Accept a Free Jet from Qatar.”) Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick testified privately before Congress that he has no memory of why he and his family dined on Jeffrey Epstein’s private island in 2012, according to Reuters. The admission contradicts Lutnick’s earlier claim that he had cut ties with the convicted sex offender well before that visit. Weeks before a former JPMorgan investment banker filed a lawsuit packed with explosive allegations, the bank reportedly offered him $1 million to settle his sexual assault and harassment claims, according to The Wall Street Journal. The suit, filed by Chirayu Rana, alleges he was sexually assaulted by a female colleague, subjected to racial discrimination, and forced into a degrading dynamic at work. JPMorgan says the claims lack merit, and the female colleague’s lawyers call the accusations fabricated. A new report from the Hartford Institute for Religion Research shows that, for the first time in roughly 20 years, church attendance is trending upward, with more people volunteering and clergy expressing renewed optimism. The study’s authors described the findings, based on a survey of more than 7,400 congregations, as showing signs of widespread recovery from low attendance numbers.
Cameron Young's Trump comments after PGA Tour victory were non-political, which is what most of us want
Cameron Young's post-win comments about President Trump at the Cadillac Championship were politicized despite being basic respect for the office.
Cameron Diaz and Benji Madden welcome third baby
Nautas Madden joins sister Raddix and brother Cardinal.
Cameron Diaz and Benji Madden welcome third baby: 'Welcome to the world' Nautas
Cameron Diaz and Benji Madden expanded their family via surrogate for the third time, the musician revealed on Monday.
No.4 Young cruises to PGA title at Doral
World number four Cameron Young cruised through Sunday's final round despite a penalty to win the Cadillac Championship by six strokes, taking his third career PGA Tour triumph.The result came in Scheffler's final tuneup before defending his PGA Championship title in two weeks at Aronimink.
Cameron Young leads Cadillac Championship, but weather looms
Cameron Young leads the Cadillac Championship by six strokes, but a past Masters collapse and bad weather loom for the final round.
What draft experts said about new Jaguars WR Josh Cameron
Here is what several draft analysts had to say about new Jaguars' WR Josh Cameron in their pre-draft scouting reports.
Cameron University unveils McMahon School of Business
Cameron University unveiled the McMahon School of Business on Wednesday, backed by the largest naming gift in the university’s history.
2026 draft implications for Saints and Alvin Kamara, Cameron Jordan
The 2026 NFL Draft is a major pivot point not just for the New Orleans Saints, but for veteran players like Alvin Kamara and Cameron Jordan.
'Avatar: Fire and Ash' Remains No. 1 on Weekly U.K. Home Entertainment Sales Chart Through April 22
Director James Cameron’s sci-fi fantasy Avatar: Fire and Ash remained atop the Official Film Chart, the U.K. home entertainment sales chart, for a third week through April 22. The title held off Universal’s Oscar winner Hamnet, which climbed six spots to No. 2 in its 10th week on the chart, followed by the studio’s Wicked: For Good, … Continue reading "‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ Remains No. 1 on Weekly U.K. Home Entertainment Sales Chart Through April 22"
'Avatar: Fire and Ash' Remains No. 1 on Weekly U.K. Home Entertainment Sales Chart Through April 22
Director James Cameron’s sci-fi fantasy Avatar: Fire and Ash remained atop the Official Film Chart, the U.K. home entertainment sales chart, for a third week through April 22. The title held off Universal’s Oscar winner Hamnet, which climbed six spots to No. 2 in its 10th week on the chart, followed by the studio’s Wicked: For Good, … Continue reading "‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ Remains No. 1 on Weekly U.K. Home Entertainment Sales Chart Through April 22"
A Realm Reborn in Magic: The Gathering®—FINAL FANTASY™
Cameron Williams discusses how Magic: The Gathering—FINAL FANTASY's designers brought the critically acclaimed MMORPG to Magic.
‘Jesus Christ Superstar’ at 5th Avenue Theatre has Seattle rock stars
"Jesus Christ Superstar" at The 5th Avenue Theatre stars Molly Sides, lead singer of Thunderpussy, and Cameron Miles Lavi-Jones, frontman of King Youngblood, alongside actor Alexander Kilian.
Yankees news: Warren, bats key blowout win
Will Warren pitches his best outing; Yankees explode against left-handed Cameron; Cole feeling “good” after rehab start, still behind Rodón; a home game delay.
Steelers veteran confident in Will Howard as starting quarterback
Pittsburgh Steelers veteran defensive tackle Cameron Heyward is confident in Will Howard if he's asked to become the starting quarterback.
2026 RBC Heritage odds, picks, field, date: Surprising PGA predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors
Mike McClure's model has simulated the RBC Heritage 2026 10,000 times and revealed golf picks for Hilton Head
The Latest: Final round of the 90th Masters has arrived
The final round of the 90th Masters has arrived, and it’s a tight race for the green jacket. Rory McIlroy and Cameron Young enter the round tied atop the leaderboard, and six others are within four shots after a dramatic Saturday. Sam Burns is one shot off the lead, Shane Lowry is two, and two-time Masters winner Scottie Scheffler lurks four shots back.
Who will win 2026 Masters? Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young on top as Scottie Scheffler leads chase pack
McIlroy's shocking stumble brought several contenders into the mix ahead of Sunday's final round at Augusta National
2026 Masters tee times, pairings: Complete schedule, groups, field for Round 4 on Sunday at Augusta National
The quest to win the first major championship of 2026 continues on Saturday at Augusta National Golf Club with Rory McIlroy well out in front
Cameron Young had a Saturday rally at the Masters
Cameron Young had an incredible rally on Saturday at the Masters
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Photo Of Cameron Brink, LeBron James Grabs Basketball World's Attention
WNBA star Cameron Brink was at Crypto.com Arena on Friday night to watch LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers square off against the Phoenix Suns. Unfortunately for the Lakers, this month hasn't been very kind to them. A few days ago, All-Star guard Luka Doncic suffered a grade 2 hamstring ...
Pulaski County Sports & Entertainment Announces Inaugural Pulaski MTN-X Gravel Bike Race
Top Professional Cameron Jones to Compete Pulaski County, Virginia (April 9, 2026) – Pulaski County Sports & Entertainment today announced the first annual Pulaski MTN-X, a premier gravel cycling event set for Saturday, September 26, 2026, in Pulaski County, Virginia. Designed for riders of all skill levels—from beginners to elite competitors—the event will feature […]
Cameron Brink Applauds Lauren Betts’ Mental Health Advocacy After NCAA Title Win
Before Lauren Betts became a national champion with the UCLA women’s basketball team, the superstar center was a freshman serving in a backup role behind All-Americans Cameron Brink and Kiki Iriafen at Stanford. Betts averaged 5.9 points, 3.5 rebounds and…
76ers lose Cameron Payne to hamstring injury amid playoff chase
The Philadelphia 76ers are in the midst of a chase to clinch a spot in the NBA playoffs, but they just suffered a loss to their a core member of their bench.
Boozer recovering physically, emotionally from UConn loss
The Duke forward said Sunday that he suffered a “couple of fractures” during the Blue Devils' loss last week to UConn.
Duke freshman forward Cameron Boozer named AP men's national player of the year
Boozer received 59 of 61 votes from AP Top 25 voters in results released Friday.
2025-26 CBS Sports college basketball individual awards: Duke's Cameron Boozer is Player, Freshman of Year
Arizona's Tommy Lloyd is the Coach of the Year and Michigan's Yaxel Lendeborg earned Transfer of the Year honors from CBS Sports experts
2025-26 CBS Sports All-Freshman team: College basketball's best young stars headline the list
Duke star Cameron Boozer headlines CBS Sports' All-Freshman team
NBA Mock Draft: Where AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, Darryn Peterson and other top prospects could land
2025-26 CBS Sports All-America teams: College basketball's best and most talented players
Duke's Cameron Boozer, Michigan's Yaxel Lendeborg, BYU's AJ Dybantsa and Arkansas' Darius Acuff Jr. were unanimous first-team selections
2025-26 Sweet 16 Betting Report: Swing in Futures Liability Impacting Books
The books no longer need who they thought they needed when the Tournament began. Patrick Everson has the scoop.
Play It Again Sports (Arkansas Sports University Inc.) - Talk Business & Politics
Cameron Campbell always enjoyed playing sports. His two favorite sports were basketball and baseball. When he got out of school, he wanted to do something where he was still involved...
Duke vs. TCU odds, March Madness predictions: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model
SportsLine's model has revealed its Duke vs. TCU picks for the NCAA Tournament 2026 second-round game on Saturday
Cracking the human simulation code: Aaru co-founders on refining the science of prediction
Cameron Fink, Aaru co-founder and CEO, Ned Koh, Aaru co-founder and president, and John Kessler, Aaru co-founder and CTO, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the origins of the company, using AI to predict human behavior with higher accuracy and speed than traditional methods, and more.
NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament: 68 Names to Know Heading Into March Madness
From Duke's Cameron Boozer to Cal Baptist's Dominique Daniels Jr., here are 68 names to know ahead of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament.
NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket picks, Cinderella teams, upsets: Model simulates March Madness 10K times
SportsLine's college basketball model has called 25 first-round NCAA Tournament upsets by double-digit seeds
The Pentagon provided a rare inside look at Palantir's Project Maven
Cameron Staley, the Pentagon's chief digital and AI officer, praised Palantir's tool for modernizing warfighting.
Trump stops short of endorsing in Kentucky's U.S. Senate race
Trump praises Andy Barr, Daniel Cameron and Nate Morris during a Boone County visit but, with nine weeks to go, remains neutral in the GOP Senate primary.
The best recent science fiction, fantasy and horror
The Library of Traumatic Memory by Neil Jordan; The Red Winter by Cameron Sullivan; Travel Light by Naomi Mitchison; Between Two Fires by Christopher Buehlman; Spoiled Milk by Avery Curran
USA TODAY Sports Network 2026 All-ACC men's basketball awards, player of the year
Cameron Boozer and Duke basketball took home major honors in the USA TODAY Sports Network's All-ACC awards. Check out the full selections.
USA TODAY Sports Network 2026 All-ACC men's basketball awards, player of the year
Cameron Boozer and Duke basketball took home major honors in the USA TODAY Sports Network's All-ACC awards. Check out the full selections.
How to run your 2026 March Madness pool: Play for prizes and create your NCAA Tournament game
The CBS Sports 2026 NCAA Men's and Women's Games have returned for March Madness 2026 office pools.
Source: Cameron Clemmons to replace Brian Fleury as 49ers tight ends coach
The San Francisco 49ers promoted Cameron Clemmons to their tight ends coach position, a source told NBC Sports Bay Area.
SAG Awards 2026 red carpet: The best fashion looks from Actor Awards
The best looks from the 2026 Actors Awards, previously known as the SAG Awards, including Dove Cameron and Paige DeSorbo.
No. 3 Duke has inside track to No. 1 seed in March Madness after its 68-63 win over No. 1 Michigan
Duke's Cameron Boozer has been ruthlessly efficient from the field this season. Will he have as much success against top-ranked Michigan?
Duke vs. Michigan live updates, score, game analysis and highlights
The Blue Devils and Wolverines meet on a neutral court Saturday in a battle that could carry significant NCAA Tournament implications
Packers to interview former Patriots ST coordinator Cameron Achord
Matt LaFleur will interview former Patriots special teams coordinator Cameron Achord after losing Rich Bisaccia this week.
Freshman Cameron Boozer emerges as overwhelming Wooden Award favorite
LOS ANGELES -- Seven freshmen are on the 20-player midseason Wooden Award watchlist, but one name stands far above the rest.
Dubois v Harper to headline MVP's first UK event
MVP come to the UK with a stacked card - with Caroline Dubois, Terri Harper, Chantelle Cameron and Ellie Scotney all in world title fights.
James Cameron was once asked to deal cocaine to film crew: 'What do I do with this stuff?'
James Cameron says that he was once asked to deal cocaine and amphetamines to a film crew: 'That was just how things were done.'
How Tennessee’s Speaker of the House Helped Keep a Payday Lender’s Struggling Sports Gambling Company Alive
Cameron Sexton took steps that allowed the owners of a payday lending company, Advance Financial, to keep using their stores to boost a now-defunct online sports betting enterprise.
James Cameron Torches America After Leaving the U.S.: ‘A Place Where Everybody’s at Each Other’s Throats, Turning Its Back on Science and Will Be in Utter Disarray If Another Pandemic Appears’
James Cameron says America has turned its back on science and he will not return to the U.S. after leaving to live in New Zealand.
Business School Expands Professional Certification Access with CeriFi
The Cameron School of Business (CSB) at the University of St. Thomas has established a new academic partnership with CeriFi, a national provider of professional finance certification preparation materials, expanding access to industry-aligned learning resources for faculty and students. The partnership provides Cameron School of Business faculty...
Stacy Hahn files to challenge GOP incumbent Donna Cameron Cepeda in Hillsborough Commission race
'We need common-sense leadership at the County Center.'
3 Hillsborough County Commissioners didn’t sign annual MLK Day leadership breakfast proclamation
Donna Cameron Cepeda, Christine Miller and Joshua Wostal, all Republicans, did not sign the recognition.
Box Office: ‘28 Years Later: The Bone Temple’ opens behind ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’
James Cameron’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash” continues to dominate the North American box office, topping charts for the fifth weekend with $13.3 million in sales.
After three years of work, local store ready for business
FAIRMONT – Cameron Kamlitz has been working on his small business for three years, and now all that hard work has paid off. The Powder Keg, located at 219 North State Street in Fairmont where Benjamin Moore Paints previously was, specializes in hunting-related products, including rifles, handguns, ammunition, optics and other essential equipment. Going into […]
Roundup: LNG deal / Mardi Gras politics / Verizon outage
Agreement with Saudis: Saudi Aramco has signed a long-term LNG supply deal with Commonwealth LNG for 1 million metric tons annually, with an option to double volumes. The agreement moves the proposed Cameron export terminal closer to a final investment decision as Aramco expands its U.S. natural gas footprint. Read more from Reuters. Parade throws: […]
Local colleges: Duke pulls away from Cal before sellout crowd at Haas
Cameron Boozer had 21 points and 13 rebounds and No. 6 Duke pulled away in the second half to beat Cal 71-56 on Wednesday night.
Teaching About Schooling: Integrating Education Politics into Political Science Curricula -
Teaching About Schooling: Integrating Education Politics into Political Science Curricula By Cameron J. Arnzen, Brown University and Chloe B. O’Neill, Columbia University Education is a cornerstone of democracy, yet political science curricula rarely treat it [...]
James Cameron's 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' crosses $1B
"Fire and Ash" is doing its biggest business overseas
James Cameron's 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' crosses $1B
"Fire and Ash" is doing its biggest business overseas
James Cameron's 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' crosses $1B
"Fire and Ash" is doing its biggest business overseas
Bills vs. Jets Injury Report
See who's in and who's out for the Week 18 matchup between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets on January 4, 2026.
'Shower Networking Expo' coming for small business
A "business shower" is happening next week to help small businesses and entrepreneurs make some new connections for 2026.Rumella Cameron Caraballo and Rob Sweet
James Cameron Slams Amy Poehler For 'Ignorant Dig' From ... 12 Years Ago
Twelve years ago, Poehler said something the director will never forget.
James Cameron explains 'the power couple from hell' at the core of 'Avatar: Fire and Ash'
With the help of the VFX experts at Wēta FX, the filmmaker turned his focus to the physics of fire for 'Avatar 3' — and forged a villain alliance like no other.
From Avatar to Amadeus: your complete entertainment guide to the week ahead
James Cameron’s Smurftacular franchise is back for an action-packed third outing, and musical geniuses butt heads in the new TV adaptation of Peter Shaffer’s play
South Carolina State beats Brewton-Parker 68-54
ORANGEBURG, S.C. (AP) Cameron Clark scored 16 points as South Carolina State beat Brewton-Parker 68-54 on Friday.
‘Terrific entertainment’ or ‘self-indulgent’? Critics go to war over ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’
James Cameron's third trip to Pandora is coming in on the low end of the review spectrum for the Avatar franchise.
2025 Scotty Cameron H25 Limited Teryllium Newport 2
Paired with a Tour Black shaft, gray Baby T grip, H25 Limited shaft band and custom H25 headcover, the 34.5-inch Scotty Cameron H25 Limited Teryllium Newport 2 putter was crafted in a limited number for worldwide release in select Titleist authorized shops on December 19, 2025.
2025 Scotty Cameron H25 Limited Teryllium Newport 2
Paired with a Tour Black shaft, gray Baby T grip, H25 Limited shaft band and custom H25 headcover, the 34.5-inch Scotty Cameron H25 Limited Teryllium Newport 2 putter was crafted in a limited number for worldwide release in select Titleist authorized shops on December 19, 2025.
Politics shift the semantics of climate change
A recent UN report says the world is headed toward an escalation of climate damages, while politics muddle climate science in the US.
‘It’s (Probably) Not Rocket Science’ brings light to farolitos and luminarias
Carmella Scorcia Pacheco joins new It’s (Probably) Not Rocket Science (IPNRS) podcast host, Cameron Goeldner, to talk about the deep cultural roots, memories and traditions behind farolitos and luminarias, in an episode titled “Little Lanterns: The...