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Gemma 4 and what makes an open model succeed

Having written a lot of model release blog posts, there’s something much harder about reviewing open models when they drop relative to closed models, especially in 2026. In recent years, there were so few open models, so when Llama 3 was released most people were still doing research on Llama 2 and super happy to get an update. When Qwen 3 was released, the Llama 4 fiasco had just gone down, and a whole research community was emerging to study RL on Qwen 2.5 — it was a no brainer to upgrade. Today, when an open model releases, it’s competing with Qwen 3.5, Kimi K2.5, GLM 5, MiniMax M2.5, GPT-OSS, Arcee Large, Nemotron 3, Olmo 3, and others. The space is populated, but still feels full of hidden opportunity. The potential of open models feels like a dark matter, a potential we know is huge, but few clear recipes and examples for how to unlock it are out there. Agentic AI, OpenClaw, and everything brewing in that space is going to spur mass experimentation in open models to complement the likes of Claude and Codex, not replace them. Especially with open models, the benchmarks at release are an extremely incomplete story. In some ways this is exciting, as new open models have a much higher variance and ability to surprise, but it also points at some structural reasons that make building businesses and great AI experiences around open models harder than the closed alternatives. When a new Claude Opus or GPT drops, spending a few hours with them in my agentic workflows is genuinely a good vibe test. For open models, putting them through this test is a category error. Something else to be said about open models in the era of agents is that they get out of the debate of integration, harnesses, and tools and let us see close to the ground on what exactly is the ability of just a model. Of course, we can’t test some things like search abilities without some tool, but being able to measure exactly the pace of progress of the model alone is a welcome simplification to a systematically opaque AI space. Share The list of factors I’d use to assess a new open-weight model I’m considering investing in includes: Model performance (and size) — how this model performs on benchmarks I care about and how it compares to other models of a similar size. Country of origin — some businesses care deeply about provenance, and if a model was built in China or not. Model license — if a model needs legal approval for use, uptake will be slower at mid-sized and large companies. Tooling at release — many models release with half-broken, or at least substantially slower, implementations in popular software like vLLM, Transformers, SGLANG, etc due to pushing the envelope of architectures or tools. Model fine-tunability — how easy or hard it is to modify the given model to your use-case when you actually try and use it. The core problem is that some of these are immediately available at release, e.g. general performance, license, origin, etc. but others such as tooling take day(s) to week(s) to stabilize, and others are open research questions — with no group systematically monitoring fine-tunability. In the early era of open models, the days of Llama 2 or 3 and Qwen pre v3.5, the architectures were fairly simple and the models tended to work out of the box. Some of this was due to the extremely hard work of the Llama, Qwen, Mistral, etc. developer teams. Some is due to the new models being genuinely harder to work with. When it comes to something like Qwen 3.5 or Nemotron 3, with hybrid models (either gated delta net or mamba layers), the tooling is very rough at release. Things you would expect to “just work” often don’t. I’ve been following this area closely since we released Olmo Hybrid with a similar architecture, and Qwen 3.5 is just starting to work well in the various open-source tools that need to all play nice together for RL research. That’s 1.5 months after the release date! This is just to start really investing more into understanding the behavior of the models. Of course, others started working on these models sooner by investing more engineering resources or relying on partially closed software. The fully open and distributed ecosystem takes a long time to get going on some new models. All of this is lead-in for the most important question for open models — how easy is it to adapt to specific use-cases? This is a different problem for different model sizes. Large MoE open-weight models may be used by entities like Cursor who need complex capabilities in their domain, e.g. Composer 2 trained on Kimi K2.5. Other applications can be built on much smaller models, such as Chroma’s Context-1 model for agentic search, built on GPT-OSS 20B. The question of “which models are fine-tunable” is largely background knowledge known by engineers across the industry. There should be a thriving research area here to support the open ecosystem model. The first step is to understand characteristics of different base and post-trained models to understand what they look like. The second step is to tune pretraining recipes for open models so they’re more flexible. Interconnects AI is a reader-supported publication. Consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe For The ATOM Project and other Interconnects endeavors, we’ve put in substantial effort to measuring adoption trends in the open ecosystem. Everything takes a long time to unfold after a model is first publicly available — and adaptability is why. What we know for sure now, when Qwen has been going from strength to strength with its releases, is that technical staff across the industry has gotten comfortable working with Qwen models. Countless research methods and datasets were made to work with Qwen. It’ll take patience for any other model family to get to this point — a patience I’m not sure many open model builders have. This takes us to Gemma 4, Google’s latest open models. Gemma 3 was released more than a year ago, in March of 2025, and is a bit underrated. Gemma 4 comes in 4 sizes for now, with a bigger, MoE model of over 100B total parameters rumored but not released yet. The models we have today come in sizes of ~5B dense, 8B dense, 26B total 4B active MoE, and 31B dense. I’m most excited that they’re finally adopting a standard Apache 2.0 open source license. This’ll massively boost adoption. The standard of better licenses for strong open-weight LLMs was set by mostly Chinese open model labs in the last 1-2 years, and now U.S. companies are following suit. I will personally be so happy if the horrible Llama licenses and Gemma terms of service were an ~18-month transient dynamic of the industry being nervous about releasing strong open models. The Gemma 4 scores look very solid, the small models have incredible benchmark scores (especially in general domains like LMArena) and the 31B model rivals the recent Qwen 3.5 27B, which is the leading member of that class. The ~30B size range is an important one, as it’s accessible both to researchers and to enterprises looking to deploy the model in real use-cases. Where the 7B model scale is the default for tinkering and research, a 30B model is the default for seeing if an open model can unlock substantial value in your specific workflow — a good mix of intelligence, low price, tractability for downstream training, etc. This takes us back to the above adoption criteria I mentioned for open models and the bigger question — do I think Gemma 4 will be an overwhelming success? Previous Gemma models have been plagued by tooling issues and poorer performance when being finetuned. Gemma 4’s success is going to be entirely determined by ease of use, to a point where a 5-10% swing on benchmarks wouldn’t matter at all. It’s strong enough, small enough, with the right license, and from the U.S., so many companies are going to slot it in. I’m cautiously optimistic that Gemma 4 is going to work better here. Winds are shifting for open models built in America. We saw GPT-OSS go through a bumpy launch to become an overwhelming success. There’s a collective energy around the likes of Reflection, Arcee, Nemotron, Gemma, Olmo, and peers that show substantial demand for building new stacks around open models. There’s capital to be spent on AI stacks across the economy by those who want more ownership of everything, including the model. After launching The ATOM Project 240 days ago, the conversation is shifting into the next stage. Summer of 2025 was a crisis moment where the U.S. AI scene realized it can’t wait and figure out open models after building AGI. The two markets will capture different areas and proceed in parallel. Now that more companies in the U.S. are releasing strong models, we need to improve the ecosystem so that these models are easy to use, understand, and build value around. It’s the hard work to build another inflection point in these adoption plots I’ve been updating consistently, but that’s the work to be done. Join me in it. More data coming soon! Here’s a sneak peek:

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Apr 3 • 12:57 PM EDT • Technology • interconnects.ai
The Trump administration wants banks back in the mortgage business. Banks have other ideas.

Regulators hope getting banks to lend more to homebuyers will unlock more lending and give more insight into brewing risks. Analysts are skeptical.

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Apr 3 • 4:55 AM EDT • Business • politico.com
Roush Review: Chilling ‘Testaments’ Is a Grim Sequel to ‘Handmaid’s Tale’

Hulu's sequel to the Emmy-winning 'The Handmaid's Tale' depicts the beginning of a slow-brewing rebellion among the pampered but repressed daughters of Gilead's ruling class, being schooled and groomed as

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Apr 2 • 12:00 PM EDT • Entertainment • wyomingnewsnow.tv
Pennsylvania Brewing Co. files for bankruptcy protection alongside owner's real estate firm

Penn Brewery and owner Stefan Nitsch's Arkham Realty file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in Pittsburgh.

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Apr 1 • 2:25 PM EDT • Business • bizjournals.com
Canal Park closures don’t signal larger trend, business leaders say

Business leaders say the closures of The Social House and Hoops Brewing in Canal Park are not part of a larger departure trend.

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Mar 31 • 7:42 PM EDT • Business • northernnewsnow.com
Central Ohio coffee business fights to keep brewing after farm issue cuts yield

A coffee business rooted in culture and tradition is facing a critical moment.

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Mar 25 • 10:33 PM EDT • Business • abc6onyourside.com
More Subnautica 2 legal trouble brewing amid claims Krafton "intentionally leaked" May release without consulting reinstated CEO

Lawyers for Subnautica 2 studio's newly reinstated CEO are reportedly pushing for Krafton to be found in contempt of court after it "leaked" a May release.

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Mar 20 • 1:18 PM EDT • Technology • eurogamer.net
California’s proposed billionaire tax gains majority support in new poll, with a partisan split on voter ID

A new poll shows California voters are sharply divided over two brewing ballot measures: a one-time tax on billionaires and new rules and procedures to verify voter citizenship.

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Mar 19 • 6:00 AM EDT • Politics • latimes.com
Pre-litigation meeting fails to resolve dispute between businesses and Black Mountain

An update now on a story we’ve been following for you, the ongoing dispute between Black Mountain Brewing and the Town of Black Mountain.

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Mar 18 • 5:31 PM EDT • Business • wlos.com
At Atlanta Science Festival, a Decatur coffee shop teaches the science behind your morning brew

The science behind a simple cup of coffee is brewing curiosity across metro Atlanta as the Atlanta Science Festival returns with hundreds of hands-on events.

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Mar 13 • 8:48 AM EDT • Science • cbsnews.com
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Justice Department’s brewing case against former CIA chief tests its efforts to prosecute Trump foes

Justice Department prosecutors leading an investigation into former CIA Director John Brennan are facing increasing pressure from top Justice officials to bring criminal charges against him after the department has flailed in trying to punish President Donald Trump’s perceived enemies, people briefed on the matter told CNN in recent days.

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Mar 10 • 10:35 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
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Yomiuri: Sapporo Holding's Subsidiary to Sell Vending Machine Business

A subsidiary of Japanese brewing giant Sapporo Holdings Ltd. on Thursday announced it will sell its vending machine business.

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Mar 6 • 5:53 AM EST • Business • marketwatch.com
New American revolution brewing in Boston after RFK Jr. sets health safety sights on Dunkin'
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Mar 4 • 9:32 PM EST • Health • nypost.com
Brewing Better Health Episode 3: What Respect Makes Possible with Karla Wagner

Karla Wagner, Ph.D., joins Dean Muge Akpinar-Elci, M.D., MPH, to discuss harm reduction, trust and respect in public health.

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Mar 3 • 9:30 AM EST • Health • unr.edu
Changes brewing at PENN Entertainment

WYOMISSING, Pa. – How will a truce with activist investor HG Vora impact PENN Entertainment? The stock market had an optimistic take today.

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Feb 26 • 10:21 PM EST • Entertainment • wfmz.com
Another Noem Controversy Brewing - Inside Politics with Dana Bash and Manu Raju - Podcast on CNN Podcasts
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Feb 16 • 6:00 PM EST • Politics • cnn.com
😐 Neutral (19%)
5 Years Strong: An Italian-Style Coffee Spot in Utica Keeps Brewing

A local coffee shop owner is celebrating five years in business.

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Feb 14 • 5:00 PM EST • Business • wktv.com
Cursing and cheating accusations: The feisty curling saga that’s heating up at the Winter Olympics

A brewing controversy is arising in the Olympic curling competition, involving accusations of cheating, denials involving F-bombs and an international governing body having to explain why it effectively relies on the honor system at times.

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Feb 14 • 12:52 PM EST • Sports • cnn.com
Fear among Minnesota’s Somali community compounds a public health woe: Low measles vaccination rates

Public health officials say a measles crisis has long been brewing in Minnesota.

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Feb 6 • 4:58 AM EST • Health • seattletimes.com
Fear among Minnesota's Somali community compounds a public health woe: Low measles vaccination rates

Public health officials say a measles crisis has long been brewing in Minnesota

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Feb 6 • 4:57 AM EST • Health • abcnews.go.com
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Brewing Better Health explores healthy habits and prevention

A School of Public Health Brewing Better Health conversation with Angela Heinemann, Ph.D., and Dean Muge Akpinar-Elci, M.D., MPH, on habit formation, prevention and healthy routines at any age.

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Feb 3 • 11:35 AM EST • Health • unr.edu
Edward Teach Brewing to close permanently after 8 years of business

The brewery announced February 15 will be a celebration with specials and encouraged customers to “come raise a glass with us one last time.”

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Jan 30 • 5:45 PM EST • Business • wect.com
Bondi shooting: how Australian politics descended into ugliness in attack's aftermath

Political spats brewing since the tragedy last month have overshadowed a national day of mourning.

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Jan 22 • 6:23 PM EST • Politics • bbc.com
Colorado Springs area entertainment events starting Jan. 22

THURSDAY The Sleeping Giants — 6 p.m., Jack Quinn’s Irish Pub & Restaurant, 21 S. Tejon St.; jackquinnspub.com. Beers & Beats with Colton Hittle — 6:30 p.m., Cerberus Brewing Co., 702 W. Colorado Ave.; 719-636-2337. FRIDAY Butterfly Assembly — 6 p.m., Buffalo Lodge Bicycle Resort, 2 El Paso Blvd.; bicycleresort.com/events-activities. The Toaster – 45 Years […]

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Jan 22 • 2:00 AM EST • Entertainment • gazette.com
Brewing Better Health at the School of Public Health

A cup of coffee sparks meaningful conversation in a new University of Nevada, Reno School of Public Health video series exploring trust, connection and the future of public health.

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Jan 20 • 7:00 AM EST • Health • unr.edu
Yankees news: Another Yankees-Mets showdown brewing?

Yankees willing to offer Bellinger opt-outs; Breaking down another Dodgers mega-deal; Mets, Yankees set for another showdown?

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Jan 17 • 12:00 AM EST • Sports • pinstripealley.com
Political battle brewing in North Texas: Both parties are pushing to remove candidates from March primary ballot
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Jan 15 • 6:47 PM EST • Politics • wfaa.com
Anchorage Superior Court hands win to breweries, saying they can now host live entertainment regularly

The decision opens the door for brewing establishments to host live music, dancing and other forms of entertainment under free-speech protections.

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Jan 15 • 5:30 PM EST • Entertainment • adn.com
Stakeholders contemplate demise of Wyoming Business Council

Though dissatisfaction with the agency has been brewing for years, Gov. Gordon says he'll fight to preserve the state's primary economic development shop.

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Jan 15 • 6:25 AM EST • Business • wyofile.com
Inside Democrats’ Brewing Debate Over Which States Should Vote First in 2028

Does Iowa deserve another shot? Is South Carolina too red? New Hampshire too white? Nevada too far-flung? Democrats are starting their calendar from scratch, and there’s a lot to consider.

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Jan 12 • 11:00 AM EST • Politics • nytimes.com
Sycamore Brewing's lease 'terminated' for planned taproom in Cotswold Village

Sycamore Brewing's planned Cotswold Village taproom is not moving forward after former co-owner Justin Brigham was arrested on felony charges.

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Jan 5 • 2:19 PM EST • Business • bizjournals.com
Craft Brewing Business is closing up for the holidays — thank you for another great year

As the year winds down, Craft Brewing Business is taking a break for the holidays. Before we do, we want to pause and say thank you. This year reminded us why we started this site in the first place — to cover the independent brewing industry honestly, thoughtfully and without hype. It has been anotherRead More

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Dec 24, 2025 • 9:32 AM EST • Business • craftbrewingbusiness.com
Area Events & Entertainment Community Calendar

Dec. 26 – Mattea Joy performs at Sawmill Brewing Company at 5 p.m. Dec. 27 - Phyl Wickham performs at Sawmill Brewing Company at 5 p.m. Dec. 28 - Dig Deep Duo (bluegrass) performs at Sawmill …

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Dec 22, 2025 • 7:00 PM EST • Entertainment • merrillfotonews.com
Turning Point exposed a brewing MAGA civil war. Can JD Vance unite it?

This weekend’s gathering of young Republicans and conservative influencers in the Arizona desert offered a glimpse into the divisions already fraying President Donald Trump’s coalition even before its lame-duck leader is out of the picture.

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Dec 21, 2025 • 4:29 PM EST • Politics • cnn.com
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'Congress is in a coma.' Former lawmakers sound alarm on health of the House

Congress is wrapping up the year without a lot of legislative accomplishments under its belt and a growing list of lawmakers who are retiring. Former members say the challenges on Capitol Hill have been brewing for a long time.

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Dec 21, 2025 • 5:00 AM EST • Politics • npr.org
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'Congress is in a coma.' Former lawmakers sound alarm on health of the House

Congress is wrapping up the year without a lot of legislative accomplishments under its belt and a growing list of lawmakers who are retiring. Former members say the challenges on Capitol Hill have been brewing for a long time.

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Dec 21, 2025 • 5:00 AM EST • Health • npr.org
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Public safety issues in St. Johns continue to hurt business

The owner of StormBreaking brewing says safety issues in the St. Johns area hurting their bottom line.

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Dec 15, 2025 • 6:44 PM EST • Business • katu.com
UNC Brewing Science Program Goes Down the Drain

The University of Northern Colorado has canceled its Brewing Laboratory Science program as part of 50 total staff layoffs implemented due to a projected $14 million budget shortfall, causing dismay among enrolled students. Sean Johnson, the program manager for eight years, who helped forge local commercial partnerships, has been laid off with his remaining classes moving online. Students praised the program's practical science and networking opportunities. Affected students expressed frustration over the lack of transparency, the university's prioritization of larger programs, and the sudden loss of learning opportunities and mentorship. UNC's Chemistry department stated the decision was part of university-wide budget cuts and is focused on supporting affected students.

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Dec 14, 2025 • 7:00 AM EST • Science • uncmirror.com
NC businesses drop Sycamore Brewing products after co-owner's arrest on rape charges
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Dec 12, 2025 • 11:22 AM EST • Business • wcnc.com
Trump says he just wants to 'do what's right' in the Warner deal

Trump said he wants to "do what's right" in the media war brewing between Netflix, Paramount, and Warner Bros.

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Dec 9, 2025 • 12:04 AM EST • Business • businessinsider.com
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Zeroday Brewing Co. to shut down flagship Taproom, adding to business closures in Harrisburg

Zeroday Brewing Co. plans to shutter its flagship taproom and restaurant, dealing another blow to Harrisburg’s once-vibrant dining and nightlife scene. On Wednesday evening, co-founder Theo Armstrong said that he and his partners made “the difficult decision” to close the location at 925 N. 3rd St. The last day will be Sunday, Dec. 28. “Closing […]

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Dec 3, 2025 • 7:11 PM EST • Business • theburgnews.com
Ratio Beerworks earns RiNo Art District’s Creative Business Award

Ratio Beerworks has received the RiNo Art District’s inaugural Creative Business Award, a new honor recognizing Denver’s creative economy.

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Dec 1, 2025 • 11:00 AM EST • Business • craftbrewingbusiness.com