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Conservatives rage over re-funding of Planned Parenthood
Despite the restoration of Medicaid funding for health care services -- but not abortions -- dozens of closed clinics are not likely to reopen.
Lawmakers must put women’s health, dignity and lives ahead of politics
Each year since the fall of Roe, the Louisiana Legislature has advanced increasingly aggressive versions of the state's abortion ban, often under the guise of targeting bad actors.
Lawmakers must put women’s health, dignity and lives ahead of politics
Each year since the fall of Roe, the Louisiana Legislature has advanced increasingly aggressive versions of the state's abortion ban, often under the guise of targeting bad actors.
Trump administration puts religious freedom at heart of US health policy
Critics say the new focus could reshape LGBTQ+ healthcare, abortion access and vaccine policy
Trump tamped down fights over abortion and marriage. Conservative activists want to bring them back in 2028
Since returning to the White House, Trump has largely sidestepped causes long championed by the conservative faith movement
Paxton’s support for IVF highlights broader divide among GOP
Anti-abortion activists believe life begins at conception, so many oppose IVF because it often destroys some embryos.
Mamdani and Hochul announce cash infusion for New York City Abortion Access Hub expansion
New York City and the Empire State are infusing hundreds of thousands of dollars into New York City Abortion Access Hub to expand its referral network
4 years after Dobbs, Texas abortion rights advocates share personal stories
In June 2022, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, ending the constitutional right to an abortion
Four Years After The Fall Of Roe: Three Leaders Share The Impacts On Business, Philanthropy And Advocacy
Leaders Jen Stark, Ann Warner and Kavita Nandini Ramdas share insights on how the rollback of abortion rights has impacted women, workplaces, the economy and democracy—and where they see opportunities for progress.
Abortion rights fight underscores key themes in Maine’s U.S. Senate race
Four years ago today, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe vs. Wade. In the majority of that decision was Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who Republican U.S. Sen. Susan Collins of Maine had voted to confirm after he had told her the landmark decision was “settled law.”
Science Will Not Save the Abortion Pill : The Hastings Center for Bioethics
The facts are not enough. In addition to using evidence, people who support the legal right to abortion must make the moral case for it.
In Utah House Race, Progressives Assail Democrat Who Backed Abortion Restrictions
Ben McAdams, a moderate former congressman, faces a handful of left-wing opponents in a rare opportunity for a Democrat to win in a Republican state.
Trump changes pregnancy-prevention program to promote childbearing
A federal poverty-fighting program focused on reducing unintended pregnancies is about to undergo a major overhaul. Reproductive health clinics use Title X federal grant money to provide birth control, cancer screenings and testing and treatment for sexually transmitted infections to people with little or no health insurance. Title X money cannot be used for abortions. The […]
Abortion decision prompts women’s healthcare providers to become more politically engaged
In the wake of Dobbs, physicians who specialize in women’s health were more likely to vote in the midterms than their peers
Indiana attorney general targets abortion pill mifepristone as water risk. Health experts dispute the claim
Indiana’s Attorney General joined 13 other states to call for the EPA to classify the abortion inducing drug mifepristone as a water contaminant, arguing it could pose a health risk. Health experts say there’s no evidence for his claims.
How the Supreme Court's abortion decision is reshaping US politics
A new book offers in-depth analysis of the impact Dobbs continues to have on voters and public attitudes toward political institutions.
'Hollywood Does Abortion' Review: Political Doc
Produced by Rachel Bloom ('Crazy Ex-Girlfriend'), the film chronicles over 50 years of the conversation around choice as it played out onscreen, from 'Maude' to 'Dirty Dancing' to 'Blonde' and beyond.
Seyb v. Labrador in a Global Context: Health Exceptions to Abortion Bans under International Human Rights and Comparative Law
The O’Neill Institute believes that the law is a fundamental tool for solving critical health problems.
Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried ‘disappointed’ in Wasserman Schultz
Fried’s statement follows warnings that Wasserman Schultz’s decision — and the state party’s silence about it — could have ripple effects.
Leftward Progressives
As their name suggests, Leftward Progressives hold progressive views across nearly every issue area. Deeply supportive of expanding government services and the social safety net, they overwhelmingly support legal abortion and rights for lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people. This majority White group is deeply concerned about racial and ethnic discrimination in U.S. society. Leftward […]
New Jersey Democrats advance bill criminalizing interference with abortion, transgender healthcare
New Jersey Assembly committee advances bill that would criminalize interference with abortion services and transgender healthcare access statewide.
New Jersey Democrats advance bill criminalizing interference with abortion, transgender healthcare
New Jersey Assembly committee advances bill that would criminalize interference with abortion services and transgender healthcare access statewide.
Candidate endorsements in Maine and NH and national politics: Letters
Letter writers endorse Manzur in NH and Meyer in Maine, decry laws restricting abortion and assert congressional Republicans enable Trump corruption.
The Republican lawmakers who tried to modify abortion bans and became political targets
At least four Republican lawmakers across the country have lost reelection bids after anti-abortion groups and key party allies backed their challengers instead. Two others face contested primaries, including one in North Dakota.
GOP lawmakers question Rx Kids as study shows healthier births in Flint
Dr. Mona Hanna, founder of the Rx Kids program in Michigan, fielded questions from lawmakers on where money is going, immigrants and abortions.
New Report Examines How Foster Youth View Abortion
A new report reveals the perspectives of California foster youth and explores the barriers to understanding and accessing reproductive health care, including abortion.
Dunlap unveils healthcare priorities
Dunlap’s healthcare plan also includes measures to protect abortion access and require “safe nurse-to-patient staffing ratios.”
Xavier Becerra faces attack, some unwarranted, from Washington
Gubernatorial rivals, led by Democrat Tom Steyer, have made Becerra's years in the Biden Cabinet a focus of attacks. While there's certainly room for criticism, there seems to be some axes being ground.
What political topics are church leaders most likely to talk about at religious services?
Abortion, Israel and homosexuality top clergy’s political topics, according to a new survey.
Traditional Hot-Button Issues Still Dominate Political Talk from the Pulpit
A study finds that when American clergy address politics, it's primarily about abortion, Israel, and homosexuality.
Sanders-backed gubernatorial hopeful's past pro-life views clash with current abortion stance
Troy Jackson's abortion stance shifted dramatically from a perfect pro-life voting record to championing expanded access in his Maine governor bid, records indicate.
Advocacy group sues Trump administration over access to abortion for veterans
The rule removed limited abortion access under VA benefits that had been granted in 2022 by then-President Joe Biden's administration
Advocacy group sues Trump administration over access to abortion for veterans
The rule removed limited abortion access under VA benefits that had been granted in 2022 by then-President Joe Biden's administration
Abortion Pill Lawsuit Leaves Trump Silent, and in a Political Bind
Louisiana wants the Food and Drug Administration to curtail access to the medication. Doing so could cost Republicans at the polls.
Expert explains the science, safety, and legal landscape around mifepristone used in abortions, miscarriage care
The U.S. Supreme Court has preserved access to mifepristone—the medication used in the majority of abortions in the United States and in some miscarriage care—for now. The action maintains current rules ...
Religious anti-abortion center finds opportunity in town without OB-GYNs
Critics fear a midterm purge as the Trump administration promotes program to check voter eligibility
At least 67 million registrations, primarily from Republican-controlled states, have gone through a beefed-up verification program at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, and tens of thousands of those have been flagged as potential noncitizens or people who have died.
Supreme Court preserves access to widely used abortion pill, while lawsuit plays out
The court’s order allows women seeking abortions to continue obtaining the drug, mifepristone, at pharmacies or through the mail, without an in-person visit to a doctor. Access is likely to remain uninterrupted at least until into next year as the case plays out, including a potential appeal to the high court.
Opinion | Dangers of ‘abortion pill reversal’: where health, speech collide
An individual’s right to speak openly about personal beliefs or faith is sacred. But a clinic is not a public square. Within those exam room walls, a provider holds a position of trust.
Trump's FDA boss resigning as admin taps next acting leader
FDA Commissioner Marty Makary resigns after clashes over the abortion drug mifepristone and mounting pro-life group frustrations.
What The Abortion Pill Case Could Mean For The Workforce And Healthcare
A federal appeals court said providers could no longer mail mifepristone anywhere in the country. SCOTUS temporarily restored access for mailing the drug until May 14th.
Supreme Court temporarily extends access to a widely used abortion pill
The Supreme Court is leaving women’s access to a widely used abortion pill untouched until at least Thursday, while the justices consider whether to allow restrictions on the drug, mifepristone, to take effect.
White House hosting anti-abortion activists amid Trump backlash
Senior Trump aides will host anti-abortion activists for a meeting at the White House on Friday, in an effort to temper growing criticism over the administration’s priorities, a person familiar with the matter told CNN.
NC loses abortion clinic as pressures mount on providers
The closure of A Woman’s Choice in Greensboro highlights the financial and operational strain providers face under tighter abortion restrictions.
Abortion Pill Politics
A federal court’s decision to override the FDA and restrict availability of the abortion pill mifepristone has launched abortion back into the national
US supreme court justices not ‘political’, John Roberts says amid backlash
The chief justice defends court’s impartiality after decisions on abortion, presidential immunity and voting rights
What we’ve learned in Bristol about reproductive freedom
Abortion bans not only create barriers to health care, like we saw with the closure of the Bristol health clinic, but they also change how doctors and nurses approach treatment, guest columnist Cheryl Hanzik writes.
Ohio abortion rights advocates concerned about health access as US Supreme Court mulls mail access
As the U.S. Supreme Court temporarily holds off a ban on telehealth abortion pill care, Ohio reproductive rights advocates and clinics say the potential loss of that type of abortion access will cause uncertainty and direct impacts to public health and wellbeing.
Abortion reemerges as election issue amid challenges to mifepristone
On Friday, the Supreme Court temporarily blocked a federal appeals court ruling that would have prevented the abortion pill mifepristone from being mailed.
Trump's Indiana wins show his power over GOP with more primaries and redistricting debates ahead
Tuesday's election results in Indiana prove President Donald Trump can still punish wayward party members after he endorsed a slate of challengers who defeated almost every one of those lawmakers he wanted to dislodge.
Abortion pill rulings bring the issue back to the forefront in a midterm election year
Back-to-back court rulings on abortion pill access are thrusting a contentious political issue back into the spotlight ahead of this year’s midterm elections that will determine control of Congress for the second half of President Donald Trump's term.
Supreme Court abortion case could force Trump to take a public stance on mifepristone
The return of abortion to the Supreme Court is testing President Donald Trump’s strategy of avoiding the issue as the anti-abortion advocates grow increasingly frustrated that his administration hasn’t done more to crack down on access to mifepristone, the drug approved to terminate pregnancies.
Trump's influence tested in Indiana primaries after failed redistricting push
Indiana's primary will test President Donald Trump's enduring power over the Republican Party as he tries to dislodge state senators who refused to go along with his call to redraw the state's congressional map.
Live Results: Indiana state primaries
Seven GOP state senators who blocked President Donald Trump's push to redraw the state’s congressional districts now face primary challengers endorsed by him.
Abortion pill rulings bring the issue back to the forefront in a midterm election year
Recent court rulings on abortion pill access have reignited a contentious political issue in a midterm year.
The Mifepristone Ruling Revives Pro-Choice Politics
A federal court’s ban on the mailing of abortion medication once again demonstrates the unpopularity of anti-abortion zealotry.
Supreme Court temporarily restores access to abortion pill mifepristone through telehealth, mail and pharmacies
The court's order will remain in effect for another week while both sides respond and the court more fully considers the issue.
Supreme Court temporarily restores ability to receive abortion drug mifepristone by mail
The Supreme Court temporarily restored telehealth and mail access to the abortion pill mifepristone on Monday, responding to an emergency appeal that warned of potential chaos for patients who had appointments to access the drug.
The Antiabortion Movement Is Turning on Trump
The ubiquity of abortion pills during the second Trump administration has frustrated antiabortion advocates.
In-person requirements for abortion medication headed to Kim Reynolds
A bill awaiting Gov. Kim Reynolds' signature says Iowans would have to see a doctor in person to receive abortion medications such as mifepristone.
Fight over online access to abortion pill reaches Supreme Court in emergency appeal
The makers of the abortion pill mifepristone filed an emergency appeal at the Supreme Court on Saturday urging the justices to pause a lower-court ruling that temporarily blocked Americans from accessing the drug through the mail.
Appeals court limits abortion pill access nationwide
A federal appeals court issued a ruling that would temporarily block people from accessing abortion pills through telehealth providers and via mail.
Appeals court blocks FDA rule that allows women to obtain abortion drugs by mail
A federal appeals court temporarily reinstated a nationwide requirement that abortion pills be obtained in person, undermining access to the method of abortion that has only grown more widespread since the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.
Study: Higher Maternal Death Rate in States With Abortion Bans | Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Findings point to potential 9% rise in pregnancy-associated and pregnancy-related mortality
Penn health experts discuss Pa. court ruling recognizing ‘fundamental right’ to abortion
In the case — titled Allegheny Reproductive Health Center v. Pennsylvania Department of Human Services — the court recognized “a fundamental right to reproductive autonomy” under the Pennsylvania Constitution.
Politicians are using low teen birth rates to further restrict access to birth control, abortion
“Both narratives — that teen birth rates are too high or too low — problematize teen pregnancy and childbearing,” writes Riley J. Steiner.
Texas Medical Board sanctions three doctors for delayed care that led to the deaths of two pregnant women
The Texas Medical Board has disciplined three doctors ProPublica previously investigated whose patients died after receiving delayed or inappropriate pregnancy care under the state’s strict abortion ban.
Democrats want Colorado colleges to provide medication abortion
A bill proposing to require Colorado colleges and universities to provide abortion medication services cleared a legislative committee on Thursday. Advocates said the measure — which exempts religious-based institutions but applies to public, private, and community colleges — will improve access to abortion, while opponents argue it would force educational institutions to take a side […]
Trump Administration Accuses Biden DOJ of Unfairly Prosecuting Anti-Abortion Activists
The report is part of the president’s effort to claim anti-conservative and anti-Christian biases in federal law enforcement, even as he pushes to wield the legal system against his political enemies.
DOJ ‘weaponization’ report accuses Biden administration of biased prosecutions against anti-abortion protesters
The Trump Justice Department released a new report Tuesday accusing the Biden administration of unfairly using a federal law meant to protect access to abortion clinics to go after anti-abortion protesters.
‘I jumped at it’: Australia’s new CDC chief on trust, misinformation and never being surprised by a health threat
Zoe Wainer’s parents started the country’s first public abortion clinic. Now she is making history too, as the inaugural head of the Australian Centre for Disease Control
Trump Admin Seeks Sweeping Access to Federal Workers’ Health Records
The administration’s access to medical histories raises privacy concerns over abortion and transgender care records.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
What’s at stake as Michigan voters weigh constitutional convention question
Conservatives could try to repeal the state constitution's guarantee of the right to an abortion.
Abortion Pill’s Safety Called into Question in Congressional Actions Based on Misleading Data — The Monitor
False claims about the safety of mifepristone are driving legislative and investigative action in Congress, even as major medical organizations and decades of clinical evidence support the drug’s safety. And competing interpretations of what censorship and free speech mean are impacting how health misinformation is moderated.
What leading Planned Parenthood is like now
As the political energy around abortion rights shifts, Alexis McGill Johnson is navigating the future direction of the organization.
Abortion clinics are closing nationwide. Could urgent care help fill the gap?
When the only clinic that offered abortions in Michigan's rural Upper Peninsula closed, an urgent care decided to step in to fill the gap. Now, others are considering similar moves as brick-and-mortar clinics close in blue states.
If you cap insulin at $35 a month, people with type 2 diabetes stick to treatment, study finds
$35 insulin, more evidence abortion meds are safe OTC, and other health news from Morning Rounds
Wisconsin Supreme Court race could give liberals control for years
The state’s high court, which liberals will control either way, could take up cases on abortion, redistricting and election disputes in coming years.
Democrats hope to increase liberal control of battleground Wisconsin's Supreme Court
Democrats are hoping to increase liberal control of the state Supreme Court in battleground Wisconsin in an election that has focused largely on abortion rights as cases affecting congressional redistricting, union rights and other hot button issues also await
Federal judge dismisses South Texas woman’s wrongful arrest lawsuit
The lawsuit stems from the woman’s arrest four years ago in the Rio Grande Valley over a self-induced abortion.
Reproductive health care restrictions likely to repel provider workforce, research shows
Applications to medical residency programs in states with abortion restrictions have declined compared to states where abortion remained mostly legal.
The Trump-voting pastor Democrats think could cost them a chance at a Nebraska Senate seat
In Nebraska’s Senate race, a Trump-supporting, anti-abortion pastor is running as a Democrat. The state’s Democratic Party — which is backing an independent candidate — says he’s a Republican plant. And another Democratic primary candidate says she’s running just to stop him.
With stricter laws across the Southeast, NC remains an access point for abortion care
Out-of-state patients got more than one-third of the abortions provided in North Carolina in 2025, as telehealth expands as a pathway to care.
Mills says federal abortion investigation is ‘political’
In particular, the federal government says it wants to find out if Maine “is unlawfully coercing entities covered by Federal health care conscience protection laws to provide, pay for, or provide coverage of abortion.”
The New Party Politics of Abortion
Some Republicans remain consistently pro-life. But under Trump’s lead, the GOP has become an anti-Roe yet pro-choice coalition.
US health department investigates 13 states that require insurance plans to cover abortion
HHS is looking into the states for ‘alleged disregard of, or confusion about’ the federal Weldon amendment
Trump administration probes states that mandate health insurance coverage for abortion
The Trump administration said Thursday that it has launched investigations into 13 states that require state-regulated health insurance plans to cover abortion.
Trump administration probes states that mandate health insurance coverage for abortion
The Trump administration said Thursday that it has launched investigations into 13 states that require state-regulated health insurance plans to cover abortion.
HHS investigating states for ‘coercing’ health care entities to provide abortions
Click in for more news from The Hill{beacon} Health Care Health Care The Big Story HHS investigating states for ‘coercing’ healthcare entities to provide abortions The Department of H…
Trump administration launches investigation of states, including Mass., that mandate health insurance covers abortion
The probes are the latest in a long-running dispute between the political parties on how to interpret a provision, known as the Weldon Amendment, that's included in federal spending laws each year.
Trump admin. launches investigation of states mandating health insurance covers abortion
The Trump administration said Thursday that it has launched investigations into 13 states - including Oregon and Washington - that require state-regulated healt
Trump launches investigation of states that mandate health insurance covers abortion
The states with the coverage requirements include California, Maine, Massachusetts, New York, Vermont, and more.
Trump administration launches investigation of states that mandate health insurance covers abortion
The Trump administration said Thursday that it has launched investigations into 13 states that require state-regulated health insurance plans to cover abortion.
Group sues over buffer zone law for Detroit health care facilities
Abortion opponents claim city's 2024 law violates their right to free speech.
HHS investigating 13 states for ‘coercing’ healthcare providers to provide abortions
The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announced today that it is launching investigations into 13 states for violating a federal health refusal clause and “coercing” healthc…
Revealed: a crypto billionaire’s political base hosting ‘anti-woke’ and rightwing activists in Westminster
Pardoned by Trump after violating US banking law, Ben Delo provides funding, networking, and podcasting space for a range of groups, including those with hardline views on migration and abortion
Paula Doress-Worters, Who Redefined Women’s Health, Dies at 87
Paula Doress-Worters, the mother and activist who opened the door to once-taboo conversations about women’s health in America, has died at 87. Paula was a member of the Boston Women’s Health Book Collective, a group of young women who got together to assemble the groundbreaking manual later known as “Our Bodies, Ourselves,” that dove-into subjects like sexuality, birth control, abortion and post-partum depression. Sunday TODAY’s Willie Geist remembers a life well lived.
Oregon lawmakers plug health funding gaps, brace for federal Medicaid changes
From vaccine access and urgent care standards to abortion protections and Medicaid funding, Oregon’s session reshaped the state’s health safety net.