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WATCH: Rep. Thomas Massie's full concession speech after defeat in Kentucky GOP primary
“We stirred up something. There is a yearning in this country for someone who will vote for principles over party,” Massie said.
A doctor shortage is coming. AI could be the only realistic fix
With 86,000 clinicians missing by 2036 and physicians spending less than a third of time on patients, AI is a hopeful fix for medicine's structural issue.
GOP Rep. Thomas Massie defiant as Trump seeks to oust him in primary: "I'm going to win"
Massie said the president is worried about his preferred candidate Ed Gallrein's chances in the Kentucky race.
Community rallies to raise money for student severely burned during school science experiment
Fundraisers were held at the Jamestown Café and Small-Town Roots Salon & Spa to support a high school student.
From cricket’s capital to Olympic ambitions, India’s next play on the world sports stage
India is expanding its influence in international sports, with the 2030 Commonwealth Games set for Ahmedabad and a bid for the 2036 Olympics in the same city
5 things to do this week in Greenville
See our curated list of upcoming and ongoing arts, culture and entertainment events in the Greenville area. Send us your events at greenville@postandcourier.com.
Why Stanford is restructuring for AI’s next era
As artificial intelligence transforms society, Stanford HAI’s James Landay, Fei-Fei Li, and John Hennessy explain why they’re merging HAI with the Stanford Data Science initiative, mobilizing “team science at scale,” and betting that academic openness will shape AI’s future.
How Some Founders Are Redefining Fashion’s Idea of Success
As the pipeline to scaling a fashion business grows more precarious, some designers are ditching the pursuit of global prestige in favour of a slower approach to growth they say is more sustainable — and more fulfilling.
Got $5,000? This Boring Waste Business Might Be a Quiet Multimillionaire Maker by 2036.
Republic Services is in the business of trash, but its long-term potential is anything but junk.
Brunswick CC sports success continuing into the spring
After successful seasons for the Brunswick CC basketball teams, both the baseball and softball are adding to a historic year for Dolphins' Athletics.
Salah, Ngumoha ease Liverpool crisis with Fulham win
Liverpool's rising star and departing legend combined to ease the pressure on Arne Slot as goals from teenager Rio Ngumoha and Mohamed Salah beat Fulham 2-0, snapping the Reds' three-game losing streak on Saturday.Salah failed to get on the pitch at all during Liverpool's chastening 2-0 Champions League defeat by Paris Saint-Germain in midweek.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Oregon gave millions in erroneous benefits for state health plan, audit says
A free Oregon health care program for adults who make too much money to qualify for Medicaid could have improperly given out $15 million in payments related to benefits for recipients, according to a recent audit of state-managed federal programs.
GOP leaders declare path to end DHS shutdown — but enormous hurdles remain
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Eight new members inducted to Louisiana Political Hall of Fame during annual ceremony
Eight new members of the Louisiana Political Hall of Fame were inducted during the 34th Annual Louisiana Political Museum Hall of Fame Induction ceremony.
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Iran building up defenses of Kharg Island to protect against potential US ground attack, sources say
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WATCH: 'We negotiate with bombs,' Hegseth says of U.S. air campaign in Iran
President Donald Trump has listed five objectives that the U.S. wants to achieve before ending its war with Iran. Now, as he suggests the U.S. may soon be “winding down” the operation after three and a half weeks, some of his key aims remain undefined or unfulfilled.
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VTA taking local trucking business to court after eminent domain dispute
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Science Corp. raises $230 million to reverse blindness
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Orange Business and Tech Mahindra to Forge Strategic Partnership to Accelerate End-to-End Digital Transformation for Enterprise Customers Worldwide, Focusing on AI, Automation and Secure Digital Platforms
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Got $10,000? Axsome Therapeutics Could Be a Mental‑Health Moonshot by 2036
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Community raises $17,000 for Brighton barbershop after water main break floods business
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Qatar’s beIN Sports wins LA 2028 media rights in buildup to 2036 Olympics bid
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Roma fans’ appeal to TAR over banned away games upheld
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Columnist says ‘socialism can't succeed anywhere’ amid Venezuela’s political turmoil
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Buncombe County officials hold public health briefing to address rise in measles
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Sphere Entertainment, the State of Maryland, Prince George’s County, and Peterson Companies Announce Intent to Develop a Sphere at National Harbor
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Sphere Entertainment, the State of Maryland, Prince George’s County, and Peterson Companies Announce Intent to Develop a Sphere at National Harbor
National Harbor, Maryland Would Become Second U.S. Location For Sphere And First To Utilize Smaller-Scale Venue Design Model Project Would Receive Approximately $200 Million In State, Local, And Private Incentives Sphere Entertainment Co. (NYSE: SPHR ), the State of Maryland, Prince George’s County, and Peterson Companies announced today their intent to develop a new Sphere venue – which would be the second in the U.S. and first to utilize a smaller-scale design model – at National Harbor, a premier destination in the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area. The addition of Sphere would create a new Maryland landmark that drives significant economic, cultural and community benefits for the County, State, and region, and provides unparalleled immersive experiences powered by advanced technologies. “Our focus has always been on creating a global network of Spheres across forward-looking cities,” said James L. Dolan, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Sphere Entertainment.
What to watch for in WPIAL sports on Jan. 14, 2026: Girls basketball titans clash again
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2031 Super Bowl bid headlines potential windfall for New Orleans sports from New York summit meeting
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The world has a new EV king. It’s not Tesla
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Amazon's after-Christmas sale is filled with incredible deals on hiking and camping gear from Osprey, Cotopaxi, The North Face, and more top brands up to 70 percent off. Upgrade your outdoor gear with high-quality tents, camping chairs, hiking boots, and more—starting at just $4.
‘It’s perpetuated this news cycle’: Frustration mounts in Trump’s orbit about messaging on latest Epstein documents
When the Justice Department released a first batch of Jeffrey Epstein files on Friday that included photographs of former President Bill Clinton, White House officials raced to amplify the importance of the new documents.
WATCH: Nicki Minaj discusses faith and politics with Erika Kirk at Turning Point USA summit
Rapper Nicki Minaj on Sunday made a surprise appearance at a gathering of conservatives in Arizona that was memorializing late activist Charlie Kirk, and used her time on stage to praise President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance, calling them “role models” for young men.
Springfield business owner indicted for laundering pandemic PPP loans
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U.S. Veterans Affairs agency plans as many as 35,000 health-care job cuts this month, Washington Post reports
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St. Johns County wants your feedback on the area’s business climate
All local businesses are encouraged to participate.
Warby Parker, Google to launch AI-powered smart glasses in 2026
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Explore youth leadership opportunities in the Michigan 4-H Shooting Sports program - 4-H Shooting Sports
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This time, Knicks let one slip away — and they know it
Not this time. Not this night.
DOGE is done. What did the agency accomplish?
As DOGE dissolves, questions remain about how close the agency came to fulfilling President Donald Trump's mandate.
Trump says he "wouldn't have wanted" a reported second strike on alleged drug boat
The Healthcare Workforce Shortage Is Growing; States Are Rushing To Fix It
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Trump is Making Health Care Unaffordable Again
Substantial cuts to Medicaid in the Trump administration’s One Big Beautiful Bill and a refusal by Republicans to renew Affordable Care Act tax credit subsidies will bring the total of uninsured Americans to about 31 million by 2027. Tens of millions more will experience sticker shock when they get their health insurance bills from the ACA, Medicaid, Medicare and private companies.