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Whoopi Goldberg, Sara Haines hit each other 6 times live 'The View'
Whoopi Goldberg and Sara Haines slapped each other on 'The View,' hitting one another a total of six times — enough that guest Justin Theroux looked over to ask, 'Why are we all hitting each other?'
Christian Hubicki reacts to having to vote himself out of 'Survivor 50'
'Survivor 50' star Christian Hubicki reacts to having to vote himself out of the game, and reveals whom he would have voted for at the Journey had he solved the puzzle.
Suazo Business Center, traditionally focused on Latinos, gets $600K grant to expand services
The Suazo Business Center, traditionally focused on aiding the Latino community, received a $600,000 grant from KeyBank to help it expand its offerings.
Pete Davidson debuts new tattoo, after spending $200K to have others removed
Pete Davidson has spent years — and a lot of money — removing his many tattoos. But he just showed off a new one.
Snooki reveals regrets after cancer diagnosis (exclusive)
After being diagnosed with cervical cancer, Nicole 'Snooki' Polizzi is opening up on her big health regret.
'Devil Wears Prada 2' director explains why Adrian Grenier cameo didn't happen
'Devil Wears Prada 2' director David Frankel tells EW that he wanted an Adrian Grenier cameo as Nate, and explains why the 'Entourage' star didn't come back for the sequel.
Taking Vitamin D? Magnesium and K2 Could Make a Difference
Should you take vitamin D with magnesium and vitamin K2? Here’s how these supplements work together, plus safety tips and recommended doses.
Tori Spelling reacts to ex Patrick Muldoon's death: 'This shouldn't be real'
Tori Spelling has reacted to the death of ex-boyfriend Patrick Muldoon, who died April 19. The 'Beverly Hills, 90210' star and Muldoon dated in the '90s.
Here's how Utah could benefit from now-permanent 20% small business tax deduction
The Qualified Business Income deduction allows Utah small businesses to deduct up to 20% of their business income from federal and state taxes.
From Donald Trump to Jacob Frey — has politics lost its profanity filter?
If there was ever a set of rules for politicians interfacing with the public, steadfast avoidance of profanity might have been at the very top of such a list. Robert’s Rules of Order, which are often invoked in political spaces, certainly prohibit personal insults, including profanity. But these are new times. Just last week, President Donald Trump […]
Sydney Sweeney cameo cut from 'Devil Wears Prada 2,' source explains why
Sydney Sweeney's cameo in 'The Devil Wears Prada 2' was cut from the final film, as a source tells EW what would've happened in the scene and why it was nixed.
'Schmigadoon!' review: The Broadway adaptation is a 150-minute smile faithful to the series
'Schmigadoon!' has finally hit Broadway. Read EW's review to hear how Alex Brightman and Sara Chase take over roles made famous by Keegan Michael-Key and Cecily Strong on the Apple TV series.
'Love on the Spectrum' star Abbey Romeo's mom reveals true reason behind split from David Isaacman
'Love on the Spectrum' star Abbey Romeo's mom, Christine Romeo, finally let fans inside her daughter's split from David Isaacman, whom she met on the show's first season and dated for nearly 5 years.
Cher was 'speechless' after discovering her son fathered child with Julie Andrews' step-granddaughter
Cher was 'speechless' after discovering her son, Elijah Blue Allman, fathered child with Julie Andrews' step-granddaughter.
Madonna pleads for 'safe return' of vintage outfits she wore with Sabrina Carpenter at Coachella
Madonna has called for the 'safe return' of her material, girl. The superstar said vintage clothes she wore on stage with Sabrina Carpenter at Coachella 'went missing' after the performance.
Hailey Bieber Debuts Cute Tattoos to Show Her Love for Husband Justin Bieber During Coachella
Hailey Bieber put her love for her husband, Justin Bieber, on full display as she supported him at the 2026 Coachella Music & Arts Festival, where he was the Saturday night headliner across the event's two-weekend stretch.
A whole new way to prevent death from sepsis shows promise
Filtering a protein that may cause sepsis out from the blood has shown promising signs for improving survival
The Science Of It: Filtering Water
The Science Of It: Filtering Water
'Drag Race' AS8 winner Jimbo reacts to airplane evacuation, reported bomb scare (exclusive)
'RuPaul's Drag Race All Stars 8' winner Jimbo was among passengers evacuated from a United flight that was diverted amid a reported bomb scare: 'Everyone thought we were dying,' Jimbo tells EW.
Sports Roundup: Five Teams Win Final Games Ahead Of April Break
Nantucket Current is the island's leading online news source. We deliver the news, stories, and people of Nantucket, unbiased and unfiltered.
AI can open up possibilities for strained rural health care providers in Utah
A St. George conference about how technology can help rural health care providers allowed for connections that will help bring AI innovation to busy offices.
Mike Myers went full 'Shrek' to honor Eddie Murphy at AFI Life Achievement Award Ceremony
AFI honored Eddie Murphy with its Life Achievement Award in a ceremony that included tears, laughter, and a cameo from a certain green ogre voiced by Mike Myers.
10 Things In Your Bedroom You Should Toss Today
From bookshelves and overly-cluttered dressers to lighting and furniture sets, these are the things Southern designers say it’s time to retire or replace in the bedroom for a place of calm and rest.
Charlize Theron slams Timothée Chalamet's 'reckless' ballet comment: 'I hope I run into him one day'
Charlize Theron slammed Timothée Chalamet's recent 'reckless' comment about ballet: 'In 10 years, AI is going to be able to do Timothée’s job, but it will not be able to replace a person on a stage dancing live.'
Cher files for conservatorship of son Elijah Blue Allman again after arrests: 'His drug dependency is at its worst'
Cher has filed to place her 'gravely disabled' son Elijah Blue Allman under a temporary conservatorship after he was arrested in New Hampshire: 'His drug dependency is at its worst.'
'Heated Rivalry' showrunner calls season 2 'much more serious territory,' teases Troy's arrival
'Heated Rivalry' season 2 will get into 'much more serious territory,' showrunner Jacob Tierney teased during a BookCon 2026 panel this weekend. He also confirmed that new character Troy Barrett will be 'quite damaged': 'We're digging into that even harder.'
Why isn't Pete Davidson in 'Lorne,' the new documentary about 'SNL' boss Lorne Michaels? Its director explains
'Lorne' director Morgan Neville reveals why Pete Davidson isn't in his new documentary about 'SNL' boss Lorne Michaels.
Charlize Theron is 'not haunted' anymore by her mother fatally shooting her father: 'He was going to kill us'
Charlize Theron is 'not haunted' anymore by the memory of her mother fatally shooting her father when she was 15: 'He was going to kill us.'
My Mom, 60, Walked 30 Miles in Comfy Sneakers From the Brand Amal Clooney, 48, and Jennifer Lawrence, 35, Wear
An InStyle fashion editor’s 60-year-old mom swears by the Adidas VL Court 3.0 Sneakers for long days on her feet. Shop the travel-perfect pair while it’s on sale for $60 at Amazon for a limited time.
MLB Broadcaster Defends AI Usage After Internet Pile on Following Health Struggles
MLB broadcaster Angie Mentink defended her use of AI after a viral video showed her asking for questions to ask after a 'tough loss' on Thursday, April 16. Mentink has suffered a stroke two months prior.
X-Men's 'Avengers: Doomsday' return is 'opportunity to pit multiple universes against each other' (exclusive)
The X-Men in 'Avengers: Doomsday' became 'an amazing opportunity to pit multiple universes against each other,' Marvel Studios head Kevin Feige tells EW at CinemaCon. 'I think people know that the story of Doomsday is inspired by a very famous comic run in which universes are colliding.'
Caitlyn Jenner slammed over asking Donald Trump for help changing passport gender
'The View' star Ana Navarro slammed Caitlyn Jenner for asking Donald Trump for help after her passport was changed to reflect the gender she was assigned at birth: 'Cry me a f---ing river.'
What Happens to Your Body When You Eat the Same Thing Every Day
Eating the same meal daily could support your health goals, but it may also impact nutrient intake, gut health, and meal satisfaction.
Christina Applegate's rep addresses report the actress is in the hospital
Christina Applegate's rep addresses report she's been hospitalized since late March amid her ongoing battle with multiple sclerosis.
Islanders Pack Board Of Health Meeting On Turf Field, But No Accord…
Nantucket Current is the island's leading online news source. We deliver the news, stories, and people of Nantucket, unbiased and unfiltered.
What happened to the 'Desperate Housewives' cast? See the ladies of Wisteria Lane, then and now
With a 'Desperate Housewives' reboot currently in development, check in on the stars of ABC's soapy sensation more than 20 years after its debut.
Pentagon defends Pete Hegseth using 'Pulp Fiction' monologue as prayer at worship service
The Pentagon is defending Pete Hegseth after the secretary of war used a Samuel L. Jackson monologue from 'Pulp Fiction' as a prayer at a worship service.
Did Pete Hegseth just quote 'Pulp Fiction' during a Pentagon worship service?
Pete Hegseth seemed to quote 'Pulp Fiction' as he paraphrased a Bible verse during a recent Pentagon worship service.
Gatorade, inventor of the sports drink, is getting a rebrand targeting non-athletes
Sixty years after it invented sports drinks, Gatorade is making a surprising pivot: It's no longer focusing primarily on athletes.
Lainey Wilson on Managing Mental Health After a Days-Long Panic Attack and Why She Once Had 3 Therapists (Exclusive)
Lainey Wilson opens up about her mental health journey and the importance of speaking up in this week's PEOPLE cover story. She also shares why she had three therapists at one point and the time she experienced a days-long panic attack.
Aliens exist! Steven Spielberg shows off 'Disclosure Day' extraterrestrials at CinemaCon
Steven Spielberg showed off the first glimpses of aliens from his new UFO thriller 'Disclosure Day' at CinemaCon on Wednesday during Universal Pictures' panel.
Steve Guttenberg broke into elderly couple's home and carried them out to save them from Palisades fire
Steve Guttenberg's tales of heroics during the 2025 Palisades fire continue, as the 'Police Academy' star opens up about breaking into an elderly couple's home and carrying them out during the blaze.
Meghan Markle Says She Was Once the 'Most Trolled Person in the Entire World'
Meghan Markle and Prince Harry visited a youth mental health group during the third day of their trip to Australia. During a discussion with young people, Meghan said she was once 'the most trolled person in the entire world' and she has been 'bullied and attacked' every day for 10 years on social media.
Doing business right
For Kelly O'Brien, business and ethics go hand in hand.
Joey and Pacey forever! Katie Holmes and Joshua Jackson walk the red carpet together at 'Brunello' screening
Katie Holmes and Joshua Jackson had a sweet 'Dawson's Creek' reunion on the red carpet Tuesday night, which comes two months after the untimely death of their costar James Van Der Beek.
5 Everyday Breakfast Foods to Support Brain Health
Start the day with foods that may sharpen memory, focus, and cognitive performance.
Joey Fatone lost power to his house on Christmas because he couldn't pay the bill: 'I was asking people for money' (exclusive sneak peek)
Joey Fatone reveals in an exclusive 'Boy Band Confidential' sneak peek that the power company shut off his lights on Christmas when he was near bankruptcy. 'I had family over at my house. Good thing I had the water, but the power just went pew,' he tells EW.
Pool Scouts Owner Wins SBA Alabama Veteran-Owned Small Business of the Year Award
Pool Scouts of Huntsville owner, among other SBA winners, will be recognized during the National Small Business Week for their significant work within the greater Alabama business community.
Jennie Garth says she got 'bad vibes' from 'What I Like About You' co-creator Dan Schneider
Jennie Garth reflected on working with disgraced television producer Dan Schneider on sitcom 'What I Like About You' with Amanda Bynes.
'We knew we had to act': Great Salt Lake gets $30M boost from business community
Three prominent families with Utah ties pledged a combined $30 million toward efforts to boost Great Salt Lake levels, as the lake faces impacts from a record-low snowpack.
'The Winds of Winter' release leak is false, George R. R. Martin's publisher says
That 'Winds of Winter' leak is 'false,' George R. R. Martin's publisher tells EW.
'My 600-Lb. Life' Star Dolly Martinez’s Cause of Death Revealed
The former reality star died at age 30 following years of weight-related health problems.
'View' stars slam Donald Trump sharing image of himself as Jesus: 'Blasphemous'
'The View' star Sunny Hostin called for the use of the 25th amendment after Donald Trump shared image of himself as Jesus: 'God is not to be mocked,' added former Trump staffer Alyssa Farah Griffin.
Scientists were wrong about lifespan. Your genes matter way more than we thought
For years, scientists believed our lifespan was mostly shaped by environment and chance, with genetics playing only a minor role. But a new study from the Weizmann Institute flips that idea on its head, revealing that genes may actually account for about half of the differences in how long people live. By analyzing massive twin datasets—including twins raised apart—and using innovative simulations to filter out deaths from accidents and other external causes, researchers uncovered a hidden genetic influence that had been masked for decades.
No Doubt guitarist Tom Dumont reveals early-onset Parkinson's disease diagnosis
No Doubt guitarist Tom Dumont reveals that he's been diagnosed with Parkinson's, one month before the band is set to reunite for their Las Vegas residency at the Sphere.
Illinois Valley Community College’s SciFest returns April 17 with 100+ hands-on science experiments
Illinois Valley Community College will host its annual SciFest on April 17 at 7 p.m. in the College Gymnasium, featuring more than 100 interactive science demonstrations and experiments.
'American Pie' star Shannon Elizabeth recalls dancing for Jason Biggs in 'difficult' audition
Shannon Elizabeth says the 'American Pie' Barenaked Ladies scene was flipped for her audition — meaning she hd to dance for Jason Biggs: 'I was really scared.'
Woman, 26, Had Excessive Itching but Was Told 'It's Just One of Those Things.' She Then Self-Diagnosed Her Cancer (Exclusive)
A young woman suffered from excessive itching and was dismissed by multiple doctors, before she eventually self-diagnosed herself with cancer. Sumbul Ari recalls her health journey in an exclusive interview with PEOPLE.
Sports Roundup: Girls Tennis Wins At Home, Baseball & Boys Lax Win…
Nantucket Current is the island's leading online news source. We deliver the news, stories, and people of Nantucket, unbiased and unfiltered.
Bird brain: New study finds birdwatching may boost brain health, slow cognitive aging
A simple look out the window at your favorite bird could do more than brighten the day. In fact, according to a recent study, it may help keep the brain sharp.
Costco Just Introduced the Kirkland Product Fans Have 'Been Waiting For,' and It's Selling Out Fast
Costco’s Kirkland Signature Ultra-Filtered Reduced Fat Milk, which is remarkably similar to Fairlife 2% Lactose-Free Milk, boasts 13 grams of protein per serving and half of the sugar compared to regular milk, at a fraction of the cost.
'DWTS' alum Hayley Erbert says her heart is 'breaking into a million pieces' after having first baby with Derek Hough
'DWTS' alum Hayley Erbert says her heart is 'breaking into a million pieces' after having her first baby with Derek Hough two years after a life-threatening health scare: 'Motherhood is even more complex and contradicting than I could have ever imagined.'
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
For aging Supreme Court justices, the politics of retirement looms large
Discussion among experts about a possible Supreme Court vacancy has increased as two men draw closer to the average age of retirement for Supreme Court justices since 2000 and with the November congressional elections looming.
Why Warren Buffett Believes Book Value Cannot Capture a Business's Real Worth
With Berkshire Hathaway's book value per share over- or under-estimating the true value of its businesses, Warren Buffett prefers alternatives to this accounting metric.
See 16 Actors You Forgot Guest Starred on 'Twin Peaks'
'Twin Peaks' premiered on ABC on April 8, 1990. From David Duchovny to Amanda Seyfried, find out the actors who appeared on the genre-bending TV series before (or even after!) they were famous.
'Who's the Boss?' star reveals he's delivering for Amazon: 'There's no shame in staying in motion'
'Who's the Boss' star Danny Pintaturo reveals that he's delivering for Amazon because the entertainment business has been so slow.
Rural Mental Health Hub Offers Tools, Training, and Support
A new program from Rural Minds gives farmers tools to recognize mental health struggles, start conversations, and offer support.
The cast of 'Juno': See the stars of the 2007 Oscar winner, then and now
‘Juno’ put teen pregnancy in the spotlight and made a splash at the Academy Awards in 2007. Find out what the cast is doing now.
Teddi Mellencamp reveals she's dating an older man who’s been 'pretty good' amid her ongoing cancer battle
Teddi Mellencamp reveals she's dating an older man who has been 'pretty good' amid her ongoing cancer battle.
Natasha Lyonne says she took sleeping pill before being escorted off flight, claims she was 'detained' by ICE
Natasha Lyonne says she took a sleeping pill before being escorted off her recent flight to NYC and claimed that she was 'detained' by ICE afterward: 'Sign of the times, I guess.'
Al Roker stops 'Today' interview with 'Laguna Beach' star over wardrobe malfunction: 'Guys, on live television?'
'Laguna Beach' star handled a wardrobe malfunction that occurred on live TV like a pro Friday on 'Today.'
CSUMB and Montage Health celebrate $15 million partnership
Representatives from Montage Health and CSUMB, nursing students and alumni, elected officials and community members attended the celebration.
'Death of a Salesman' review: The timely Broadway revival feels as urgent as ever
Nathan Lane, Laurie Metcalf, and Christopher Abbott lead a stellar cast in a Broadway revival of Arthur Miller's 'Death of a Salesman' that feels as timely and urgent as ever. Read EW's review.
Spotify Introduces New Video Controls for Listeners
Spotify has always been about putting listeners in the driver’s seat. Today, people don’t just want more ways to spend their time; they want that time to be well spent. That’s why, from Taste Profile to Prompted Playlist, and the expansion of managed accounts to Smart Filters, we’re giving users more control over their listening...
Galaxy S25 and S24 users get AirDrop and 3 new camera filters
With new One UI 8.5 Beta updates, Samsung has fresh perks for the users of Galaxy S25 and S24 series: AirDrop sharing and three new camera filters. Samsung just dropped One UI 8.5 Beta 9 and Beta 2 updates for the S25 and S24 series, respectively. Changelog of both updates carry exact the same content, […]
'Survivor 50' recap: Coach has a haiku-making meltdown
'Survivor 50' recap: Coach has a haiku-making meltdown as tensions rise before the biggest Tribal Council in franchise history.
RFK Jr. moved his ex-wife’s remains from Kennedy family plot to the edge of the cemetery
A new biography on RFK Jr. has resurfaced claims he moved his ex-wife's remains from the Kennedy family plot to the edge of the cemetery without her family's knowledge.
'American Idol' alum Justin Guarini's new girlfriend speaks out amid news of singer's quiet divorce
Justin Guarini's business partner Kim Walsh Phillips tells EW that her relationship with the 'American Idol' alum has 'developed into a romantic partnership of love' after the singer quietly got divorced.
IT’S SCIENCE. IT’S SURREAL. IT’S THE SIBILANCE OF KIM SALMON
KIM SALMON APPEARS on my screen intact, in motion, but not, I assure him, infected by any filters adding bunny ears, cat whiskers or fish scales. Dignity is appropriate for the man who emerged from the most isolated punk scene of all in late ‘70s Perth to become a force of nature, and whose early swamp-rock take on life after punk was to spawn a decade and a half later – for better and worse – the more earnest, less thrilling grunge movement.Yes, somehow that mega selling, decade-defining scene
Secret 'Devil Wears Prada 2' celebrity cameo accidentally revealed on 'Today' show
'Today' show star Craig Melvin accidentally revealed Jenna Bush Hager's secret 'Devil Wears Prada 2' cameo on air: 'My bad,' he said.
Vincent D'Onofrio on that 'Daredevil: Born Again' cliffhanger
Vincent D'Onofrio talks that 'Daredevil: Born Again' episode 4 cliffhanger and what happens next. 'He becomes more of a loose canon,' the star says of Fisk.
The Viral “Office Air” Theory Explained: Why Your Skin and Hair Change During the Workday
Can “office air” really affect how you look? Experts explain how indoor environments impact skin, hair, and overall appearance throughout the workday.
'Full House' actress Andrea Barber awoke from surgery during O.J. Simpson’s Bronco chase: ‘What is happening right now?’
'Full House' actress Andrea Barber reveals she was under anesthesia during O.J. Simpson’s infamous Bronco chase in 1994.
St. Bede teacher selected for international science program
St. Bede Academy science teacher Dan Fitzpatrick has been selected to attend a prestigious international science program this August at CERN in Geneva, Switzerland.
Catherine O'Hara's brother says actress 'wasn't talking much in the end,' said goodbye to him in a dream
Catherine O'Hara's brother Michael P. O'Hara shares the 'sort of goodbye' he had with his sister after her death in January. 'She wasn't talking much in the end,' he says. 'She didn't really want to talk on the phone.'
Politics and the potty take center stage for ‘Urinetown’
The Tony Award-winning musical comedy opens Friday at the World Theater.
Woman, 70, Gets Intense Facelift After Life-Threatening Health Scare. Now She Looks 30 Years Younger (Exclusive)
A 70-year-old woman nearly died from a bilateral pulmonary embolism, which sparked her weight loss journey. She then underwent a dramatic plastic surgery transformation that "took off 30 years" from her appearance.
Google has launched a free, offline AI dictation app that will automatically polish your speech.
Google AI Edge Eloquent is a new live AI transcription app that requires no subscription and has no usage limits. When you finish speaking, it will also filter out filler words like “um.” It’s currently only on iOS, but Google plans to bring the app to Android and macOS. [Image: https://platform.theverge.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/google-ai-edge-eloquent-app-store.jpg?quality=90&strip=all]
Dax Shepard reveals Kristen Bell 'didn’t tell me' about controversial 'I would never kill you' anniversary post
Dax Shepard reveals Kristen Bell 'didn't tell me' about controversial 'I would never kill you’ anniversary post.
Play Store now lets you search Android app reviews, ditches ‘this device model’ filter
Google is rolling out some updates in the Play Store, with reviews now featuring a handy option to search, but...
'Brady Bunch' star Eve Plumb details 'sweet' but unsuccessful date with onscreen brother Christopher Knight
'Brady Bunch' star Eve Plumb recalls the 'sweet' date she and onscreen brother Christopher Knight went on after the sitcom ended in 1974: 'Any attempts at making out that evening ended with laughter.'
Melissa Gilbert says child abuse allegations ruined her life with Timothy Busfield: 'He's canceled'
Melissa Gilbert defended husband Timothy Busfield against child abuse allegations in her first TV interview on 'Good Morning America,' saying the 'traumatic' experience ruined their future: 'It's done. He's canceled.'
Mark Consuelos emotionally announces death of his father, Kelly Ripa calls him 'greatest person'
Mark Consuelos emotionally announced the death of his father Saul Consuelos during Monday's 'Live With Kelly and Mark,' while Kelly Ripa praised her father-in-law as 'the greatest person I've ever known.'
Rumer Willis shares video breastfeeding her 3-year-old to clap back at critics of her parenting
Rumer Willis is clapping back at critics 'judging my parenting' by sharing a video of herself breastfeeding her 3-year-old daughter Louetta.
Photo Gallery: Busy Weekend For Whaler Sports Against Martha's…
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Tori Spelling and 4 of her kids hospitalized after car hit by driver who was allegedly speeding
Tori Spelling and four of her kids were hospitalized after her car was hit by a driver who was allegedly speeding and ran a red light.
TLC’s Chilli Reveals If She Has Any Regrets Tied to 1996 Grammys Speech About Winning Awards While Being Broke (Exclusive)
TLC's Chilli looks back on the band's 1996 Grammy speech about being broke after they won two awards at the ceremony, and shared how she feels about it today, in an exclusive interview with PEOPLE.
'SNL' recap: Jack Black joins the Five-Timers Club
Jack Black returns to Studio 8H to host 'Saturday Night Live' for the fifth time, while Jack White makes his sixth turn as musical guest.
Manuel's El Burrito in Clearfield marks 50 years in business; operators hope for 50 more
Manuel's El Burrito in Clearfield held a small celebration on Tuesday to mark 50 years in business, making it among Utah's longest-lasting Mexican restaurants.