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Liverpool receive boost in pursuit of summer transfer target
Liverpool’s Midfield Reset Gains UrgencyLiverpool’s summer plans are beginning to sharpen into focus, and one name now sits firmly at the centre of the conversation: Camavinga. The French midfield...
I've spent over 1,000 hours gaming on my Nintendo Switch — these are the 15 games and accessories I think every Switch owner should buy
My favorite deals on Nintendo Switch games and accessories
Sign up now for the Bulls Camp matchday special!
On 3 May v Sturm GrazThe Bulls Camp Matchday Special is back, bringing you a day packed with football action!When? Sunday 3 May 2026. The day will begin with an entertaining training session on the gr...
Funeral announced for beach music Hall of Famer killed in a crash in Eastern NC
Celebration of life gatherings also will be held on dates to be announced in Concord-Kannapolis and North Myrtle Beach.
World of Warcraft private server Stormforge is shutting down as Blizzard builds pressure on fan alternatives
The Stormforge developers confirm that its private WoW servers will be shut down in May after a Cease and Desist from Blizzard's legal team.
Yankees news: Judge and Stanton, dinger duo
Judge, Stanton making history; McMahon seeing bench time; Yankee Stadium noise unbearable; Lombard off to sizzling start
AS Roma vs Atalanta – Match preview and team news
AS Roma face Atalanta in matchday 33 of the Serie A on Saturday night at the Stadio Olimpico.Both teams are fighting for European spots next season as AS Roma sits at sixth in the table with 57 points...
Padres near record-breaking sale could bring new ownership philosophy
Who are Jose E, Feliciano, and his wife, Kwanza Jones?
Business: Rewarding Year-rounders, Chatham Business Offers Incentives For Residents, Businesses
Even though the shoulder seasons have become busier in recent years, Lower Cape businesses can still struggle to remain open year-round. Lindsay...
Steph Curry is testing Fitbit's screenless Whoop competitor
The NBA's greatest shooter has been not-so-subtly showing off the potential Whoop killer.
Jet Aviation Plants Own Brand on IFE/CMS
IFX is an in-house-developed product line available for a variety of aircraft
AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. Subsidiary Odeon Finco PLC Announces Closing of $425 Million Term Loan
LEAWOOD, Kan.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Odeon Finco PLC (“Odeon”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Odeon Cinemas Group Limited (“OCGL”) and AMC…...
Pressure builds as Starmer rejects calls to resign over Mandelson appointment in Epstein fallout
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has no plans to resign over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as U.K. ambassador to Washington, despite Mandelson failing security checks.
Kendra Scott appoints first chief business officer
Kendra Scott has appointed Adrienne Gernand as its first chief business officer, as the company accelerates its global expansion and category growth strategy.
Immersive entertainment venue breaks ground in downtown Cleveland
Construction began on an immersive entertainment venue in Cleveland’s Gateway District, across the street from Rocket Arena.
Roger Adams Dies at 71; Invented the Rolling Sneakers Known as Heelys
You could walk in them like gym shoes, but if you rocked back on your heels the wheels emerged, turning them into roller skates. In the early 2000s, the company sold millions.
Android 17 hits a major milestone as Google releases its last 'scheduled' beta
Google has released Android 17 Beta 4, marking the final scheduled beta of the cycle.
"You've got another opportunity to get better. You've …
"You've got another opportunity to get better. You've …
Duke's Cayden Boozer returning for sophomore season
Boozer starred down the stretch for the Duke men's basketball team but a costly turnover led to UConn's Brayden Mullins hitting a buzzer-beater to eliminate the Blue Devils in the Elite Eight.
Big News For Next Year’s Duke Roster
Boozer starred down the stretch for the Duke men's basketball team but a costly turnover led to UConn's Brayden Mullins hitting a buzzer-beater to eliminate the Blue Devils in the Elite Eight.
The Case for Pull Funding at the National Institutes of Health
The White House’s fiscal year 2027 budget proposal, released earlier this month, would cut the National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding by ~$5 billion. This is a meaningful cut, though far smaller than the roughly $18 billion reduction proposed for 2026, which Congress ultimately rejected in favor of a modest increase. Whether Congress holds the line again remains uncertain.
Gaubert Oil expanding fuels business
The company has agreed to buy the wholesale and transportation division of Mississippi-based Buffalo Services, giving it a foothold in The Magnolia state.
Fighter pilot Rumen Radev looks to break Bulgaria’s political deadlock
Radev is vowing to combat the country’s oligarchs and mafia, but his Kremlin-aligned positions on Ukraine have sparked concern.
Mariners Game #19 Preview and Discussion: SEA at SDP
Emerson Hancock takes the ball for the Mariners on Jackie Robinson Day
Health Taxes and the IMF: Are Support and Reform Aligned?
Health taxes remain one of the clearest opportunities for countries to raise revenue while improving public health, but how these reforms are supported matters as much as whether they are adopted. The current pattern—where reform commitments are concentrated in lower-income countries, while technical support is more visible elsewhere—raises a practical concern: complex excise reforms may be pursued without commensurate design and implementation support. Given the technical demands of these reforms, this gap could affect both their durability and effectiveness.
Seattle Reign Goalkeeper Evan O’Steen signs extension through 2030
Today, the Seattle Reign announced that goalkeeper Evan O’Steen has signed a contract extension through 2030. She becomes the longest contracted player on the roster. O’Steen previously became the youngest goalkeeper signing in club history at just 17 years old. “Securing Evan O’Steen through 2030 is an important step in building long-term stability within our […]
Fantasy Basketball: LeBron James, Jalen Duren among notable free agents
In addition to actual free agents, some player option situations will significantly affect fantasy basketball this summer.
Tigers sign top prospect Kevin McGonigle to eight-year, $150 million extension
McGonigle is the latest in a lengthy list of top prospects who have signed long-term deals this spring
Amazon's budget-friendly answer to the Frame TV will start shipping on April 22
The Fire TVs can double as artwork in your home and come with more than 2,000 pieces of art for free.
Liverpool FC pays tribute on 37th anniversary of Hillsborough tragedy
On the 37th anniversary of the Hillsborough disaster, players, staff and club officials of Liverpool Football Club have been at Anfield to lay wreaths and pay tribute to the 97 fans who lost their lives. The club will observe a period of silence at 15:06 BST - the time at which Liverpool's FA Cup semi-final against Nottingham Forest was stopped. After the silence, 97 biodegradable balloons will be released from the centre circle at Anfield.
LPD investigating overnight burglary of adult entertainment store
Lincoln police are investigating a burglary at an adult entertainment store early Wednesday morning
Windows 11 Speeds Up Storage, Lifts 32GB FAT32 Limit After 3 Decades
This should help storage management feel faster and more user-friendly.
Arsenal XI vs Sporting CP – Predicted lineup and team news
Arsenal host Sporting CP tonight, aiming to clinch a place in the Champions League semi-finals.The Gunners hold a slender 1–0 aggregate lead after a resilient display in Lisbon last week. Mikel Arte...
NBA play-in predictions: Magic-76ers? Warriors-Clippers? Our takes on who will advance
Callaway Plaza business owners ask for City of Holts Summit's help
According to previous reporting, the odor has caused a decrease in sales for at least one business.
JJ Wetherholt Homers Twice as Cardinals Rally to Beat Guardians
Tuesday night’s game at Busch Stadium was a parade of solo home runs for both the St. Louis Cardinals and the Cleveland Guardians. JJ Wetherholt homered twice and made some epic plays in the field as the Cardinals showed their come-from-behind heart yet again to walk off the Guardians in extra innings. Michael McGreevy gave […]
Disney quietly delists 15 more games on Steam, including a couple of classic Star Wars titles
After 14 removals earlier this year, another 15 Disney-owned games have suddenly disappeared from the Steam store.
Dallas mayor Eric Johnson on the city as a prime business and financial destination
Dallas mayor Eric Johnson on why his city is becoming one of the prime destinations for business and finance
UNCG Celebrates Undergraduate Researchers and Their Mentors
UNCG announces the winners of the 2026 Thomas Undergraduate Research and Creativity Expo and the recipients of the Thomas Undergraduate Research Mentor Awards.
‘I thought it was me as a doctor’: 10 of the best political excuses ever
From Boris Johnson to Rudy Giuliani, top politicians have come up with some imaginative justifications for alleged misbehavior.
Open-air driving pleasure in the new Porsche 911 GT3 S/C
Lightweight cabriolet with a high-revving naturally aspirated engine and manual transmission.
EDC and Business Impact NW to host two free workshops on capital readiness for businesses
Submitted by the Economic Development Council.
Wild weekend could bring big changes to race for Governor
"It was a wild weekend in California politics," said Adjunct McGeorge School of Law Professor Chris Micheli.
Entertainment Tuesday: Test your music history knowledge
Test your music history knowledge this Tuesday!
Get a Pokémon TCG: <em>Mega Evolution—Chaos Rising</em> Build & Battle Box Early
Open booster packs from a Mega Evolution—Chaos Rising Build & Battle Box at a Prerelease event near you.
Masters 2026: Odds for every winner since 1985
The longest odds of any Masters winner since 1985 are 150-1, with Trevor Immelman in 2008 and Larry Mize in 1987 pulling off the feat.
Fantastic MacBook Air with 24GB RAM at lowest ever price on Amazon right now in unmissable deal
This 15.3-inch model of the legendary lightweight laptop also comes with 512GB storage and a 2880x1864 Liquid Retina Display.
McGeeney feels there's 'much more' in Armagh
Armagh manager Kieran McGeeney feels there is "much more" in his team but "I'm all for playing badly and winning" after their extra-time victory over Tyrone.
GameThread: Tigers vs. Marlins, 1:40 p.m.
Detroit Tigers (6-9) vs. Miami Marlins (8-7) Time/Place: 1:40 p.m., Comerica ParkOpponent Site: Fish On FirstMedia: Detroit SportsNet, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio NetworkPitching Matchup: LHP Tarik Skubal (1-2, 2.55 ERA) vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara (2-0, 0.74 ERA) Lineups MARLINS TIGERS Austin Slater – RF Kevin McGonigle – SS Agustin Ramirez – C Gleyber Torres – 2B Jakob Marsee – CF Colt Keith […]
You can grab a refurbished 2021 Kindle Paperwhite starting at just $49.99
How pristine you want it is up to you.
Fever reportedly re-sign Sophie Cunningham to 1-year contract
Where to watch Charlotte Hornets vs. New York Knicks: Live stream, start time, TV channel, odds for Sunday, April 12
The Hornets can potentially improve their seeding with a win over the Knicks.
Fan World of Warcraft servers face shut down as Blizzard wins Turtle WoW case
Activision Blizzard has won its court case against Turtle WoW, delivering a Cease and Desist order to the World of Warcraft server network.
Bengals’ mid-round targets hinted with latest NFL draft visit
Another Bengals visit hints at what the team might want to do in the second round and beyond.
Captain Clutch completes comeback, Mariners walkoff Astros 8-7
Mariners comeback from 5-run deficit
UFC signs Gable Steveson, announces debut date
It's seemed inevitable, but Gable Steveson is headed to the UFC.
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
Are the Bills better after offseason additions and departures?
The Bills made some big moves, including trading for DJ Moore and signing Bradley Chubb. Is Buffalo’s roster improved?
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Victory essential for Wales in Six Nations against Scotland today
Head coach Sean Lynn is under pressure to deliver a win in his second campaign in charge of Wales.
Shohei Ohtani passes Ichiro Suzuki for another Japanese MLB record
Ohtani has reached base in 44 consecutive regular season games, dating back to last August.
Entière Dermatology founder Dr. Melissa Levin dives into science of sunscreen
Entière Dermatology founder Dr. Melissa Levin dives into science of sunscreen
GlassWorm Campaign Uses Zig Dropper to Infect Multiple Developer IDEs
GlassWorm uses a fake WakaTime VS Code extension to infect IDEs, deploy RATs, and steal data, prompting urgent credential rotation.
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: Series Preview
The Yankees head down to the Trop for a clash with the Rays.
EBACE Show Canceled As New Format Fails to Win Support
EBAA trade group said lack of momentum made the show not viable
Jayson Tatum scores 24 for Celtics in first game at Madison Square Garden since Achilles injury, but Knicks win
Spotify now lets you turn off all video
It has separate toggles for Canvas, music videos and all other types.
Mohegan appoints Joe Soper Vice President of Sports & Entertainment
Mohegan on Thursday appointed Joe Soper as Vice President of Sports & Entertainment. Soper will oversee strategy and programming for Mohegan Sun’s entertainment and work collaboratively acros...
How IBM’s Masters campaign marks a shift in its sports strategy
At the Masters this week, IBM is showing off a shift in its sports sponsorship strategy.
'It should have been five or six'
Jamie Carragher says the gulf between Liverpool and Paris St.Germain in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final was "absolutely startling". The Reds, who failed to register a shot on target at Parc des Princes, have a two-goal deficit to overturn in next week's second leg.
Seven & i to Delay US Unit’s Public Listing, Nikkei Reports
Seven & i Holdings Co. will delay a public listing of its US convenience-store business planned for later this year, saying it needs more time to turn the business around while navigating uncertain market conditions.
Repeat party-line vote for House bill aimed at ‘preserving girls sports’ in Minnesota
The Minnesota House GOP was handed defeat number two this week for a bill that it said will preserve girls sports in the state.
Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy on American Politics and the GOP
Former U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy participates in a discussion on the state of American politics and the Republican party at a forum hosted by The John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum at Harvard University.
What leading Planned Parenthood is like now
As the political energy around abortion rights shifts, Alexis McGill Johnson is navigating the future direction of the organization.
Falcons RT Kaleb McGary reportedly retires at age 31
McGary missed the entire 2025-2026 season after suffering a significant leg injury last August.
Italy’s Giorgia Meloni attempts political reset after referendum defeat
Facing voter backlash and an energy-driven economic squeeze, the prime minister is recalibrating her ties with Washington
Nevada regulators approve Golden Entertainment going private
The CEO of Golden Entertainment told Nevada regulators that a lagging stock price and investors not properly valuing the casino operator caused them to take the company private. The Nevada Gamin...
Barcelona-Atlético Madrid, PSG-Liverpool live updates, scores: Champions League quarterfinal first legs continue
The Viral “Office Air” Theory Explained: Why Your Skin and Hair Change During the Workday
Can “office air” really affect how you look? Experts explain how indoor environments impact skin, hair, and overall appearance throughout the workday.
More Orlando-area eateries close over health code violations
Last week, five more eateries across Central Florida were forced to close after a visit from a health inspector, according to state records.
Texas students urge education board to focus on inclusion over politics in social studies overhaul
Students, parents and teachers say Texas’ new social studies plan feels rushed and will exclude key perspectives and historical events.
Texas students urge education board to focus on inclusion over politics in social studies overhaul
Students, parents and teachers say Texas’ new social studies plan feels rushed and will exclude key perspectives and historical events.
Google updates Gemini with crisis hotline tool, pledges $30M for mental health
The updates come after a Florida family sued Google, claiming Gemini coached a man through suicide
Leak reveals price & release date of Sony’s next premium headphones, more expensive than AirPods Max 2
The leak reveals key details about Sony’s upcoming premium headset, dubbed 'The ColleXion', including pricing and release date.
After howls from clubs, Syracuse cuts the red tape choking music venues
The Syracuse Common Council approved the new rule Monday after an old ordinance was resurrected when violence erupted after a show at the Westcott Theater.
Former NJ Gov. Chris Christie on Leadership and the Political Landscape
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) discusses leadership, the upcoming midterm elections, and the political landscape during a conversation hosted by the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School.
Activists and Policy Advocates on the Role of Civility in Politics, Media, and Everyday Life
Activists and policy advocates sit down for a discussion on the impact of civility on politics, the media, and everyday life. NYU Washington, DC, hosts this event.
International maritime officers connect with science at W&M’s Batten School & VIMS
W&M's Batten School & VIMS recently hosted the U.S. Coast Guard’s International Maritime Officer’s Course.